500 HRs/ Manny Ramirez HoF

[bbfirebird]

It seems that 500 home runs is basically a guarantee into the hall of fame (aside from steroid suspicions with McGwire).
Now with Manny Ramirez about to break 500 HRs, do you think he should be in the hall? I don't follow him closely, so I admittedly don't know everything about his career. I do know that when I see him play, he pretty much seems to only care about batting. His fielding isn't great at all, and his effort on defense seems very poor.

So my question is, do you think he will get into the hall, and do you think he deserves it? Would he get in if he never breaks 500 HRs?

[Captain Cold Nose]

It seems that 500 home runs is basically a guarantee into the hall of fame (aside from steroid suspicions with McGwire).
Now with Manny Ramirez about to break 500 HRs, do you think he should be in the hall? I don't follow him closely, so I admittedly don't know everything about his career. I do know that when I see him play, he pretty much seems to only care about batting. His fielding isn't great at all, and his effort on defense seems very poor.

So my question is, do you think he will get into the hall, and do you think he deserves it? Would he get in if he never breaks 500 HRs?

Ramirez is one of the best hitters of his generation. That is enough to get him in. What you said about Ramirez is the general impression of Ted Williams, he only appeared to care about hitting, yet most have him a top-5 alltime player. Ramirez isn't Williams, but he's a HOF-caliber player.

[dl4060]

Easily first ballot. I agree with everything you said about his defense, but when you hit like Manny does you can overcome just about anything. If he retired today he would be in easily. Something along the lines of Rose/Mcgwire is the only thing that might give him pause.

[digglahhh]

Yeah, he could hang 'em up right now and I'd vote for him. Few guys put together the combination of hitting for average and power like Manny, and by now, he has done it for about a dozen years in a row.

If he continues to want to play and stays relatively healthy, he could find himself in Mays territory for career jacks when all is said and done.

[John Shoemaker]

Manny should be a slam-dunk first ballot entry into the HOF.

[Edgartohof]

1. Manny should and would go into the HOF if he retired right now, and

2. He will most likely reach 500 HR's this season anyways (he's at 470 right now)

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Manny has a good shot at 600 HRs.

[Huntington Avenue]

I would say that he's the most underrated hitter of the decade. If he can stay healthy and at current performance, he could definitely reach the upper 600s, and then who knows?

[four tool]

Got to agree with everyone else, Manny is a first ballot as of now, high average, high slugging and consistency, what else does a hitter need?

[538280]

Manny excels at all areas of hitting and overall is one of the best hitters of all time. His defense isn't great, though IMO improving and better than it often gets reputed for. Even if it is horrible though, he's a good enough hitter that, even if he never played another game, he's an easy HOFer. What I would pay to see is his induction speech!

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Manny excels at all areas of hitting and overall is one of the best hitters of all time. His defense isn't great, though IMO improving and better than it often gets reputed for. Even if it is horrible though, he's a good enough hitter that, even if he never played another game, he's an easy HOFer. What I would pay to see is his induction speech!
Me, too!

Man, if Manny had Gold Glove caliber defensive he could be one of the 10 greatest players ever. I can't believe he turns 35 this year.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Manny's been a HOFer for a few years now; he'd have gone in if he retired after the 2004 season, IMO.

[digglahhh]

I would say that he's the most underrated hitter of the decade. If he can stay healthy and at current performance, he could definitely reach the upper 600s, and then who knows?

You know, I was going to say this too. But, then after thinking a bit, I'm not sure.

I was actually going to say that he was one of the great right-handed hitters of all time, which in a sense he is. The only problem is that his career has overlapped with a lot of other amazingly talented righties.

You have Frank Thomas, who is one of the most underrated, or at least underappreciated (not here) hitters of all time. You have Albert Pujols. You have Mike Piazza, who did what he did as a catcher. You also have Bagwell, who was pretty great too.

[Fuzzy Bear]

You know, I was going to say this too. But, then after thinking a bit, I'm not sure.

I was actually going to say that he was one of the great right-handed hitters of all time, which in a sense he is. The only problem is that his career has overlapped with a lot of other amazingly talented righties.

You have Frank Thomas, who is one of the most underrated, or at least underappreciated (not here) hitters of all time. You have Albert Pujols. You have Mike Piazza, who did what he did as a catcher. You also have Bagwell, who was pretty great too.

Manny has the older guys beat; he's held his value throughout his career better. Pujols might be better, but he could injure himself this year and that would be that. I rate Manny ahead of ALL of these guys as a hitter. I would only rank Piazza ahead of manny in terms of career value, as Piazza was able to hold the catcher's position down for so long.

[digglahhh]

Fuzzy,

I was just saying that he doesn't stand out as much due to those other guys also being really good right handed hitters as well.

[rich584]

Easily first ballot. I agree with everything you said about his defense, but when you hit like Manny does you can overcome just about anything. If he retired today he would be in easily. Something along the lines of Rose/Mcgwire is the only thing that might give him pause.

I have seen Manny make some really outstanding defensive plays. I think he is one of those guys that is so good, he gets bored because the game is so easy for him. But put a bat in his hands...

I can't believe the Yankees never got their hands on him. He might have been more serious about the game playing for them while they have been winning every year. And I think he would have jumped at the chance to wear the Pinstripes. Paul, Bernie and Manny. Think of that.

HOF? Yeah. Absolutely. One of the most entertaining players I have ever seen.

Rich

[rich584]

Me, too!

Man, if Manny had Gold Glove caliber defensive he could be one of the 10 greatest players ever. I can't believe he turns 35 this year.

I think he had (and still does have) the ability to have been a constant Gold Glove winner. If he would just take the game more seriously. Never looks like he is in the greatest shape and yet plays so easily. If he only tried a bit harder. I would not be surprised to see him play productively into his 40s.

Rich

[Charger567]

Rich, thats not true at all IMO. He is on a winning team. He won in 2004, and is a Red Sox legend because of it. If you are going to consider his emotions, how would he have felt going year after year of losing in the playoffs since 2000? He takes the game seriously, all pros do. He may be lazy, but he doesn't think of it as a joke. And I do not think he ever had gold glove potential.

[DoubleX]

I have seen Manny make some really outstanding defensive plays. I think he is one of those guys that is so good, he gets bored because the game is so easy for him. But put a bat in his hands...

I can't believe the Yankees never got their hands on him. He might have been more serious about the game playing for them while they have been winning every year. And I think he would have jumped at the chance to wear the Pinstripes. Paul, Bernie and Manny. Think of that.

HOF? Yeah. Absolutely. One of the most entertaining players I have ever seen.

Rich

The Yankees probably could have had Manny when he became a free agent after the 2000 season, but the Yankees chose to spend that money on Mike Mussina instead.

Also, you mentioned in your next post that you believe Manny could become a GG fielder. I don't see it. Perhaps at one point very early on, he had the natural ability had he put his mind to it, but he's not good in the OF. If David Ortiz wasn't on the Red Sox, Manny would likely have been predominantly a DH the past four seasons as he seemed to be on that path with the Red Sox prior to Ortiz's arrival (playing 137 games at DH with the Sox in 2001 and 2002 combined).

Sometimes, a spectacular play can look spectacular because the player is not good defensively and thus has to make a super effort to make the play, whereas a better defensive player would have hade made it look more routine. Derek Jeter is a good example of this. We're often mesmerizied by his throws leaping into the 3B hole, or him diving to stop a ball up the middle, but in truth, a big part of why those plays look so spectacular is because Jeter has to make them look that way in order to make the play. A better defensive player would not have to make such a spectacular effort to make that play. I think the same thing can happen with Manny in LF and that some of those plays that look like a good play, only look that way because he's not good enough to make it look as routine as it really is.

Nevertheless, Manny's bat is too good for some spotty defense to keep him down. One of the best hitters of his generation, and quite possibly of any generation.

[willshad]

I dont know, to me Manny represents a guy whos number do not tell the whole story, kind of like Todd Helton...sure his raw numbers are great, but it seems like this is in great part because he ALWAYS in the middle of great lineups...not great BECAUSE of him, but he is just another guy along for the ride. This is shown by the fact that hes never won MVP. In fact, you can argue that he has never even been the best player on his own team in his whole career...remember he played with Belle, Lofton, etc in Cleveland, Nomar and Papi in Boston. To me this takes away from his aura somewhat, and puts him a notch below Thomas, Bagwell, Piazza, and Griffey, simply because they were obviously the best player on their teams several seasons, and were obvious league MVPs several times (Piazza was the MVP from 1995-1997 in my book). So hall of famer? Maybe, but not if he retired now.

[Williamsburg2599]

I dont know, to me Manny represents a guy whos number do not tell the whole story, kind of like Todd Helton...sure his raw numbers are great, but it seems like this is in great part because he ALWAYS in the middle of great lineups...not great BECAUSE of him, but he is just another guy along for the ride. This is shown by the fact that hes never won MVP. In fact, you can argue that he has never even been the best player on his own team in his whole career...remember he played with Belle, Lofton, etc in Cleveland, Nomar and Papi in Boston. To me this takes away from his aura somewhat, and puts him a notch below Thomas, Bagwell, Piazza, and Griffey, simply because they were obviously the best player on their teams several seasons, and were obvious league MVPs several times (Piazza was the MVP from 1995-1997 in my book). So hall of famer? Maybe, but not if he retired now.
I don't think you should punish a guy for being in a good line-up. Out of RBIs, HRs, and BA, only RBIs are really effected by how good your lineup is (Although I guess the more ABs you get the more HRs you get, but still) Can you punish Lou Gehrig for playing with Ruth?

[willshad]

I suppose youre right..its just a matter of personal perspective...Id just rather pick a guy who has proven he can carry a team basically by himself over someone who has always had great teammates around him to help his numbers. How good would Ramirez's numbers be if he had played in LA or on the Mets, or Montreal, playing with no other all star or hall of fame teammates? We dont know. But we KNOW that Piazza, Bagwell, Thomas, Guerrero etc can and have done it..I guess that's what gives them the advantage in my book. If you dont choose to penalize him for playing in Fenway and with other great players, fine. Im just saying how Id do it. Im not saying hes not a hall of famer...just that since he hasnt proven he can carry a team, he needs the lifetime stats (500 homers, 3000 hits) to get in.

[AstrosFan]

There is an argument to be made that Ramirez was the best player on his team every year from 1998-2006. I'm not saying he was the best player every year, but he certainly has a case. He's a lock for top player in at least 5 of those years. I don't see how Manny hasn't ever carried his team.

[Edgartohof]

I think he had (and still does have) the ability to have been a constant Gold Glove winner. If he would just take the game more seriously. Never looks like he is in the greatest shape and yet plays so easily. If he only tried a bit harder. I would not be surprised to see him play productively into his 40s.

Rich

I seriously doubt he's got GG ability. His ABILITY is certainly better than the effort he puts up, but even his best isn't all that good.

So:

1.) He's lazy and doesn't put up half the effort he should defensively, and

2.) Even if he did try his best, he's not tremendously great - above average if he DOES put a lot of effort in to it, but that's it.

[538280]

I dont know, to me Manny represents a guy whos number do not tell the whole story, kind of like Todd Helton...sure his raw numbers are great, but it seems like this is in great part because he ALWAYS in the middle of great lineups...not great BECAUSE of him, but he is just another guy along for the ride. This is shown by the fact that hes never won MVP. In fact, you can argue that he has never even been the best player on his own team in his whole career...remember he played with Belle, Lofton, etc in Cleveland, Nomar and Papi in Boston. To me this takes away from his aura somewhat, and puts him a notch below Thomas, Bagwell, Piazza, and Griffey, simply because they were obviously the best player on their teams several seasons, and were obvious league MVPs several times (Piazza was the MVP from 1995-1997 in my book). So hall of famer? Maybe, but not if he retired now.

Lineup protection is a myth. When players go up to the plate, what they do is up to THEM. Do I think players can go up in esteem to the public because they have great choice in teammates? Oh yeah, but I don't think it has anything to do with their actual ability. Read this study:

http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/grabiner/protstudy.html

That's not the only one done either-baseball statisticians have been going a long time looking for evidence that having other good hitters in the lineup helps hitters. It just doesn't. There's not evidence to back it up in the actual data. Manny Ramirez is a great hitter with or without Belle, Lofton, Nomar, or Ortiz.

[ElHalo]

Lineup protection is a myth. When players go up to the plate, what they do is up to THEM.

This just isn't true. It's also, very much, up to the pitchers. If it was just up to the hitters, pitchers would never watch videotape (wow, that doesn't even exist any more, does it?) of batters, would never study lineups, and wouldn't even care or know who was coming up to the plate. Pitchers know what hitters' strengths and weaknesses are, and pitchers know what the strengths and weaknesses of players coming up subsequently are.

If there was no such thing as lineup protection -- if the next batter in line truly had no affect on how a pitcher pitches to the guy at the plate -- you would never ever see intentional walks, because it would never occur to pitchers to fear the guy at the plate more than the guy on deck. Have you ever seen an intentional walk?

[538280]

This just isn't true. It's also, very much, up to the pitchers. If it was just up to the hitters, pitchers would never watch videotape (wow, that doesn't even exist any more, does it?) of batters, would never study lineups, and wouldn't even care or know who was coming up to the plate. Pitchers know what hitters' strengths and weaknesses are, and pitchers know what the strengths and weaknesses of players coming up subsequently are.

If there was no such thing as lineup protection -- if the next batter in line truly had no affect on how a pitcher pitches to the guy at the plate -- you would never ever see intentional walks, because it would never occur to pitchers to fear the guy at the plate more than the guy on deck. Have you ever seen an intentional walk?

Yes, there are subtle effects, EH, such as obviously a guy with no one around him in the lineup will get more intentional walks because there is no one else there who the pitcher fears, like you said, but I mean as a general statement, there is no proof that individual hitters (and you can read that link I gave), benefit from having other good hitters in the lineup. Are there subtle effects, probably yes. But is it something that is going to keep a guy out of the HOF, or should? No way IMO. If it was, we would see studies such as the one I cited showing real differences in performance when batter quality improves in the previous and on deck hitters.

[ElHalo]

Lineup protection is a myth. When players go up to the plate, what they do is up to THEM. Do I think players can go up in esteem to the public because they have great choice in teammates? Oh yeah, but I don't think it has anything to do with their actual ability. Read this study:

http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/grabiner/protstudy.html

That's not the only one done either-baseball statisticians have been going a long time looking for evidence that having other good hitters in the lineup helps hitters. It just doesn't. There's not evidence to back it up in the actual data. Manny Ramirez is a great hitter with or without Belle, Lofton, Nomar, or Ortiz.

This study is just so monumentally flawed as to not even be worth using for an argument. Picking a small sample of mostly arbitrarily chosen hitters from the 1991 AL to prove that there is no such thing as lineup protection is bad enough; this guy's definition of statistical significance almost makes me want to vomit.

Regardless, I do believe that lineup protection can have a huge impact on a player's performance. If Babe Ruth had had, say, Joe Dugan batting fourth in back of him instead of Gehrig in 1927, I firmly believe it would have had a massive impact on his performance (he actually walked 137 times in 1927; with Dugan behind him, I honestly believe he would have walked at least 250 times, with a corresponding enormous drop in production). If Ruth had had, say, Bob Meusel batting fourth behind him, it would have had a much smaller impact on his performance, but definitely a still sizable one (in reality Ruth put up a 1.258 OPS in 1927; without Gehrig, I could see that plummeting as far as perhaps a 1.230).

Of course, lineup protection isn't going to make Gabe Kapler look like Manny Ramirez, and Ramirez is an easy Hall of Famer no matter who's hitting behind him. He is, in my view, one of the top ten hitters of all time, and currently ranked third on my list of all time right handers (behind only Hornsby and Thomas, although Pujols is rapidly entering that category).

[DoubleX]

I think there can be more than subtle effects to lineup protection, but I also don't think that over the course of a career, lineup protection is likely going to give a player a Hall of Fame career.

[digglahhh]

I dont know, to me Manny represents a guy whos number do not tell the whole story, kind of like Todd Helton...sure his raw numbers are great, but it seems like this is in great part because he ALWAYS in the middle of great lineups...not great BECAUSE of him, but he is just another guy along for the ride. This is shown by the fact that hes never won MVP. In fact, you can argue that he has never even been the best player on his own team in his whole career...remember he played with Belle, Lofton, etc in Cleveland, Nomar and Papi in Boston. To me this takes away from his aura somewhat, and puts him a notch below Thomas, Bagwell, Piazza, and Griffey, simply because they were obviously the best player on their teams several seasons, and were obvious league MVPs several times (Piazza was the MVP from 1995-1997 in my book). So hall of famer? Maybe, but not if he retired now.

Well this is why people attempt to contextualize stats, and after attempting to take home park and run scoring context and so forth into consideration, Manny still comes out looking like an amazingly brilliant hitter. Which he should, because he is.

The irony of the whole Boston issue is that HE is the one who props up Ortiz. That's why he hits fourth and Ortiz hits third. Manny is the better hitter, having Ortiz behind Manny wouldn't force you to pitch to Manny as much has having Manny behind Ortiz forces you to pitch to Ortiz. Consider that Manny's CAREER OPS+ is 157. David Ortiz has topped that only twice in individual seasons, by a combined total of 11 points.

Finally, it as much of a coincidence that Manny Ramirez was a member of great offenses as it is that Brian Urlacher is on great defenses.

[dl4060]

I suppose youre right..its just a matter of personal perspective...Id just rather pick a guy who has proven he can carry a team basically by himself over someone who has always had great teammates around him to help his numbers. How good would Ramirez's numbers be if he had played in LA or on the Mets, or Montreal, playing with no other all star or hall of fame teammates? We dont know. But we KNOW that Piazza, Bagwell, Thomas, Guerrero etc can and have done it..I guess that's what gives them the advantage in my book. If you dont choose to penalize him for playing in Fenway and with other great players, fine. Im just saying how Id do it. Im not saying hes not a hall of famer...just that since he hasnt proven he can carry a team, he needs the lifetime stats (500 homers, 3000 hits) to get in.

I don't see star teammates as having a major effect on a player's stats other than r/rbi. I don't see Guerrero putting up better numbers in Anaheim than he did in Montreal. Piazza played on some good Mets teams, they went to the WS in 2000. Bagwell played on very good Houston teams in much of his career. He usually had guys other than just Biggio who could hit the ball. He also had Alou and Hidalgo around him, as well as Berkman later. Griffey played on some good teams in Seattle, I mean Arod, Buhner, Edgar Martinez....Some really outstanding players. I fail to see how any of the guys you mentioned has been extremely unlucky with regards to teammates compared to Ramirez. Regardless, I really don't buy the argument that we don't know how he would have played somewhere else. Manny, like Piazza, Guerrero, Griffey, Thomas, Bagwell, would have been great anywhere.

Fenway is a good hitter's park, but it is not Coors, it does not distort numbers all that much.

[UTforever22]

clearly a first ballot hall of famer even if he quit today. He is better than he is given credit fore in the field and is one of the top 15 right handed hitters of all time.