Dustin Pedroia?

[natsnsoxfan]

I think this kid will be a really good ball player in the future. He has gotten better at turning the double play from last year and has hit the ball well so far this season, although he has nothing to show for it, and appears to have gotten alot better from what was seen of him last year.

Also, is he still officially a rookie? Could he win AL RoY?

[ChrisLDuncan]

Yes he is still a rookie but his chances of winning RoY are slim to none.

[Westlake]

Yes he is still a rookie but his chances of winning RoY are slim to none.

And that's because...?

[natsnsoxfan]

I would say that it is WAAAAAY to early to say that it his chances are slim to none. By that logic Santana's chances at the Cy Young are slim to none because he pitched pretty average in his first start.

[Westlake]

I would say that it is WAAAAAY to early to say that it his chances are slim to none. By that logic Santana's chances at the Cy Young are slim to none because he pitched pretty average in his first start.

Agreed. There a many good candidates, but at this point, they all have the same chance.

[natsnsoxfan]

Exactly. Alex Gordon, the supposed favorite to win the AL RoY has K'ed 4 times in 5AB's already this season. That doesn't sound like RoY type stats to me, but lets see what they look like again about half way into the season. ;)

[Evangelion]

Going into the season, I like D. Young, Gordon and Dice-K to win the ROY. Though, you never know what will happen with a rookie. Pedroia good have a very solid season and win the rookie of the year. Of course, I would prefer Dice-K pitching like a Cy Young and winning the ROY. :)

[winningtheweapon]

If Dice-K sports a sub 3 ERA, then he'll definately win Rookie of the Year. Pedroia has a chance, but as much as I love him as a player I don't think he'll win it.

[ChrisLDuncan]

And that's because...?

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young just to name a few...that and he projects to be nothing other than a league average second basemen, which isn't a bad thing, but I just don't see him winning the RoY.

[ChrisLDuncan]

Agreed. There a many good candidates, but at this point, they all have the same chance.

Well not at this point, I'm basing this on minor league numbers and big league projection systems and the picks that the writers will vote for. I won't make my pick until around August say...but at this point I don't think he's in the "favorites" catagory.

[winningtheweapon]

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young just to name a few...that and he projects to be nothing other than a league average second basemen, which isn't a bad thing, but I just don't see him winning the RoY.


League average? I think he'll be a bit above average.

[ChrisLDuncan]

League average? I think he'll be a bit above average.


He'll be a good player no doubt. I see him hitting his PECOTA projections, being a player that will make solid contact, strike out very little walk a fair amount of times. A guy who will give you solid defense, bat around .280-.300 have an OBP around .360 slug around .450, later in his career I think he'll get the OBP around .380, and I see him having a VORP in the mid-20s consistently.

[DoubleX]

He'll be a good player no doubt. I see him hitting his PECOTA projections, being a player that will make solid contact, strike out very little walk a fair amount of times. A guy who will give you solid defense, bat around .280-.300 have an OBP around .360 slug around .450, later in his career I think he'll get the OBP around .380, and I see him having a VORP in the mid-20s consistently.

You project him to have an .810 OPS, and higher later in his career. That sounds a good deal above the average 2Bman.

[ChrisLDuncan]

You project him to have an .810 OPS, and higher later in his career. That sounds a good deal above the average 2Bman.

About that later in his career...what's the average 2Bman's OPS?

[DoubleX]

About that later in his career...what's the average 2Bman's OPS?

I imagine it's a good deal lower than 0.810. Let's take a look at what each regular AL 2Bman did last year (OPS+ in parentheses):

1) Robinson Cano (Yankees): 0.890 (+130)
2) Ian Kinsler (Rangers): 0.801 (+102)
3) Tadahito Iguchi (White Sox): 0.774 (+97)
t4) Ron Belliard (Indians): 0.757 (+97) - He was traded to the Cardinals near the end of the year
t4) Brian Roberts (Orioles): 0.757 (+96)
6) Mark Grudzielanek (Royals): 0.740 (+85)
7) Aaron Hill (Blue Jays): 0.735 (+89)
8) Luis Castillo (Twins): 0.728 (+91)
9) Jose Lopez (Mariners): 0.724 (+91)
10) Adam Kennedy (Angels): 0.718 (+90)
11) Mark Loretta (Red Sox): 0.706 (+82) - See my note below on Loretta
12) Mark Ellis (Athletics): 0.704 (+85)
13) Jorge Cantu (Devil Rays): 0.699 (+78)
14) Placido Polanco (Tigers): 0.693 (+81)

As you can see, just 1/14 players finished above 0.810 you project for Pedroia, and only two had an OPS+ above the overall league average. 2Bmen just generally don't hit like that (like a 0.810 OPS). The average OPS and OPS+ here are 0.745 and 92, and that's with a pretty big outlier, Cano, driving the numbers up. Remove the major outlier, Cano, and the averages fall to 0.734 and 90.

So, in sum, I'd be pretty surprised if Pedroia, as a rookie, posts an OPS that only one other AL 2Bman was able to post last year. It's not impossible, and being a RH hitter in Fenway should help, but in general, 2Bmen, not to mention rookie 2Bmen, just don't typically put up an 0.810 OPS or higher. If Pedroia puts up a .760 OPS, 50 points lower than the projected 0.810, that should likely be good enough to place him among one of the better hitting 2Bmen in the AL, and I think that is a much more realisitic expectation at this point.

Also, and because this came up in the Yankees forum, this should show how much ground Pedroia needs to make up to be considered in Robinson Cano's class. Cano right now, is far and way, the class of AL 2Bmen when it comes to hitting (I'd still like to see him repeat this feat for a couple more years though).

Also, I didn't realize Loretta's OPS and OPS+ were so bad last year. I'm really shocked that it was so low. I thought he was at least in the low 90s for OPS+. Geez. Now that I know that, I have to say I agree with winningtheweapon and believe that Pedroia should be an instant upgrade.

[natsnsoxfan]

Also, and because this came up in the Yankees forum, this should show how much ground Pedroia needs to make up to be considered in Robinson Cano's class. Cano right now, is far and way, the class of AL 2Bmen when it comes to hitting (I'd still like to see him repeat this feat for a couple more years though).

Also, I didn't realize Loretta's OPS and OPS+ were so bad last year. I'm really shocked that it was so low. I thought he was at least in the low 90s for OPS+. Geez. Now that I know that, I have to say I agree with winningtheweapon and believe that Pedroia should be an instant upgrade.

I think youd get an argument from Orioles fans that Brian Roberts is pretty close offensively to Cano.

I agree that Pedroia is an instant upgrade over Loretta. Loretta hit .300+ over most of the first half and then took a nose dive during the 2nd.

[DoubleX]

I think youd get an argument from Orioles fans that Brian Roberts is pretty close offensively to Cano.

I agree that Pedroia is an instant upgrade over Loretta. Loretta hit .300+ over most of the first half and then took a nose dive during the 2nd.

When you throw in the stolen bases and factor in that Cano's only been around for two years, a decent argument for Roberts materializes.

Interestingly, Loretta wasn't alone in the nosedive last year. Lowell, Youkilis, and Nixon also struggled in the second half after strong first halves. I wonder if there is something to that?

[Westlake]

Interestingly, Loretta wasn't alone in the nosedive last year. Lowell, Youkilis, and Nixon also struggled in the second half after strong first halves. I wonder if there is something to that?

What goes up must come down. Especially if it shouldn't have gone that high to begin with.

[DoubleX]

What goes up must come down. Especially if it shouldn't have gone that high to begin with.

I was wondering if maybe it was a conditioning thing or something. Youkilis is easy enough to explain - it was the first time he played regularly at any level in a couple of years, so stamina was probably an issue down the stretch. I suppose you could also argue that Nixon's stamina wasn't great because of all the injuries in recent years. So then there's just Lowell and Loretta, and two players with big second half swoons isn't as odd as four.

[natsnsoxfan]

I think you can attribute that to changing leagues and the such.

[Huntington Avenue]

Pedroia had a tough time making the transition last year, so I hope he gets off to a great start this year. He's too cool.

I think he'll end up like the Spike Owen/Jody Reed type, where hitting is average-ish, but they give the team a little spice.

[PhilWings24]

I would say that it is WAAAAAY to early to say that it his chances are slim to none. By that logic Santana's chances at the Cy Young are slim to none because he pitched pretty average in his first start.

it's entirely different. i love pedroia with a passion and have been one of his biggest supporters, and am currently working on a deal where i'll give up what most people would consider way too much to get him in fantasy baseball.

the reason pedroia has just about no chance to win AL RotY is because dice-k, alex gordon, phil hughes, delmon young, adam miller, and bj upton to compete with. it's not his start that hurts his chances, its the fact that he's the 6th or 7th best rookie in the AL.

that said, i think he's the kind of guy that will win games with his glove and won't lose them with his bat. in fact, he'll probably win a few with his bat.

he's a good kind of player to have on a team, and i think his physical talent has been vastly underrrated by most media outlets; i'm excited to have him on the team.

[Jager]

I was wondering if maybe it was a conditioning thing or something. Youkilis is easy enough to explain - it was the first time he played regularly at any level in a couple of years, so stamina was probably an issue down the stretch. I suppose you could also argue that Nixon's stamina wasn't great because of all the injuries in recent years. So then there's just Lowell and Loretta, and two players with big second half swoons isn't as odd as four.

I think the biggest factor last year is that the whole team was VERY beat up midway through the season. I remember some games when it was only those four guys that played that were normal starters. There were alot of guys on the DL, and Youk, Lowell, Loretta, and Nixon were all beat up, but Youk, Lowell, and Loretta were troopers, and battled through the injuries. I think that had alot to do with it. For example, Lowell got hit in the head with a pitch, and stayed in the game, and had a good game. Those are the type of guys you want on your team, however, you can't expect those 4 guys to win with a bunch of scrubs. They were beat up just like everyone else.

[Westlake]

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young just to name a few...that and he projects to be nothing other than a league average second basemen, which isn't a bad thing, but I just don't see him winning the RoY.


I won't make my pick until around August say...but at this point I don't think he's in the "favorites" catagory.



Yes he is still a rookie but his chances of winning RoY are slim to none.


You were saying, Chris? :eek::hide::dance;)

[DickZ]

I just developed an even greater respect for Dustin, if it could grow any greater than it already was. This bone injury that he lived with for quite a while at the end of the season and through the postseason, is quite severe. Apparently lots of players get it - and golfers as well - since it's the swinging motion that causes the problem. But nobody plays through the pain - or at least very few people do - until now.

Living in the Washington DC area, where there admittedly isn't a stream of baseball news that compares to what comes out of Fenway Park, we had been hearing all about Ryan Zimmerman's injury and surgery for several days. It turns out to be the same thing Dustin put up with, but Zimmerman didn't even suffer the injury until after the season was over - it happened in a batting practice session just a few days ago - unless I read something wrong.

[Mattingly]

Congrats on the RoY win, Dustin! :D

[VTSoxFan]

Woohoo! The little man has certainly made a name for himself. :) :dance

Congrats to our Rookie of the Year! :highfive:

[TonyK]

Congrats also to you Pedroia supporters who defended him last season and early this season. For those like me who live outside of New England, it was hard to understand what was special about him.

[baseballkid12]

Dustin Pedroia has been amazing ever since he got out of his early season slump, after that he has done nothin but produce for the Red Sox. He has been a great addition to the team and i hope to keep him on the team for a very long time. What else do u want from this kid i mean he got rookie of the year and helped the Red Sox alot with the world series too!!!