Paul Loduca

[wickedcurve093]

Does anyone think LoDuca has a shot at the HOF?

[ChrisLDuncan]

He plays in an era with lots of good offensive catchers. We've seen guys like:

Ivan Rodriguez
Mike Piazza (greatest offensive catcher ever)
Jorge Posada
Jason Kendal (a bit to a lesser extent)
Joe Mauer (as of late he's tearing it up)
Victor Martinez (great hitter)
Brian McCann (good as of late)
Javier Lopez (good peak but not much else)
Mike Barrett


I'd say that you can make an argument for all of those guys over LoDuca...so I'm going to go ahead and say no unless he gets 3K hits.

[jalbright]

Since he's already 35 and doesn't even have 1000 hits or lots of major awards already accumulated, his chances range from slim to none. He might be able to change that assessment, but I doubt it.

Jim Albright

[The Dude]

Wade Boggs was 24 when he played his first full season. That's the oldest age for a member of the 3,000 hits club. Lo Duca was 29.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Lo Duca started way too late. He was 29 when he had his first full-time season. He's left at least FOUR prime seasons in the minor leagues or on the bench.

Lo Duca turns 35 next month. He has 951 career hits to date; he's not likely to make it to 2,000 hits. His only hope for the HOF would be to have an extremely long career (for a catcher) and maintaining his level of play near where it is now. Carlton Fisk did it, but we all can't be Carlton Fisk, now can we?

[DoubleX]

Lo Duca turns 35 next month. He has 951 career hits to date; he's not likely to make it to 2,000 hits. His only hope for the HOF would be to have an extremely long career (for a catcher) and maintaining his level of play near where it is now. Carlton Fisk did it, but we all can't be Carlton Fisk, now can we?

Fisk has a lot more than just longevity going for him. He was a much better hitter than Lo Duca from the age of 24 all the way to about 43.

Anyone else think that Lo Duca's 2001 seems kind of odd? His OPS+ that year was 144, his next highest is 105. He hit 25 homeruns, his next highest is 13.

[Erik Bedard]

Not all that odd. He only played 125 games.

[digglahhh]

He's a fine player, glad to have him on the Mets and he has a reputation as a very good clubhouse guy too.

He has zero chance at the Hall of Fame or even to not be one and done.

[DoubleX]

Not all that odd. He only played 125 games.

Doesn't that make it even more odd, especially the home runs?

[mikeymussina35]

If he makes it to the Hall of Fame, that would be something!!!!!!!
But sorry Wickedcurve, he won't make it. 10% maybe 5% chance!!!:dance

[Captain Cold Nose]

No offense, wicked curve, but LoDuca just might be the least deserving player I've seen a thread dedicated to in this forum.

[Erik Bedard]

Doesn't that make it even more odd, especially the home runs?

Maybe the HRs. But OPS+ is a rate stat, so what would normally be just a career year is inflated due to the smaller sample size.

No offense, wicked curve, but LoDuca just might be the least deserving player I've seen a thread dedicated to in this forum.

Nah... we've seen threads about Adrian Beltre.

[nerfan]

Duke... no.

But I love to have the Duke around the clubhouse.

But... I guess everyone has a shot if they play till 60!

[DoubleX]

Maybe the HRs. But OPS+ is a rate stat, so what would normally be just a career year is inflated due to the smaller sample size.

The sample size isn't that small, especially compared to the inflation. His OPS+ that year was 144 in 519 plate appearances. His next best is 105 in 551 plate appearances. That's a huge difference in OPS+ and the difference in plate appearances isn't that much at all, and certainly not nearly big enough to explain a nearly 40 point gap.

[Erik Bedard]

I disagree. He's a catcher, so by the end of the season, his legs will get worn out and he'll need a break, and if he doesn't, his hitting will suffer. In each of his seasons in which he played at least 140 games, he has never had an OPS+ above 100. However, in the two seasons where he played between 100 and 139 games, he has OPS+ over 100 in both. Remember, his 144 OPS+ was at age 29 (most players' peak year), and in a season where he played 1B more than in any other season. The HRs are a bit flukish, but the OPS+ can be rationally explained.

[DoubleX]

I disagree. He's a catcher, so by the end of the season, his legs will get worn out and he'll need a break, and if he doesn't, his hitting will suffer. In each of his seasons in which he played at least 140 games, he has never had an OPS+ above 100. However, in the two seasons where he played between 100 and 139 games, he has OPS+ over 100 in both. Remember, his 144 OPS+ was at age 29 (most players' peak year), and in a season where he played 1B more than in any other season. The HRs are a bit flukish, but the OPS+ can be rationally explained.

144 cannot be rationally explained, IMO, when the next highest is 105 and the difference in plate appearances is just 32. You think if Lo Duca played 140 games that year, his OPS+ would have dropped from 144 to like 105? That wouldn't almost definitely would not have happened. Just like in his other seasons when he played more games, if he played just 125, his OPS+ would not have jumped up to 144. The gap between his 144 and everything else is so big that it cannot be explained based on 15 games. Those 15 games would not have made that big of a difference.

[Colorado Express]

No way, not even close.

[bailiff]

No way possible. (and not just because I dislike Loducca either)

[Erik Bedard]

144 cannot be rationally explained, IMO, when the next highest is 105 and the difference in plate appearances is just 32. You think if Lo Duca played 140 games that year, his OPS+ would have dropped from 144 to like 105? That wouldn't almost definitely would not have happened. Just like in his other seasons when he played more games, if he played just 125, his OPS+ would not have jumped up to 144. The gap between his 144 and everything else is so big that it cannot be explained based on 15 games. Those 15 games would not have made that big of a difference.

No, but they could have dropped his OPS+ from something crazy like 144 to something more rational, like 125, which can be explained fairly easily.

[DoubleX]

No, but they could have dropped his OPS+ from something crazy like 144 to something more rational, like 125, which can be explained fairly easily.

That's possible, that's still likely too big of a drop to be explained by 15 games.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Would the thread starter be so kind as to post why he feels LoDuca should be a HOF'er? At least those asking about Beltre showed some sort of case.

[Erik Bedard]

That's possible, that's still likely too big of a drop to be explained by 15 games.

Then factor in the games he played at 1B. Lo Duca only caught 99 games that year, taking a whole bunch of strain off his legs, and allowing him to continue putting up more inflated offensive numbers.

[DoubleX]

Then factor in the games he played at 1B. Lo Duca only caught 99 games that year, taking a whole bunch of strain off his legs, and allowing him to continue putting up more inflated offensive numbers.

That helps explain it a little, but he still slugged out of his mind that year. His slugging that year is so far and away above what he done in any other year, that it's too much to try to rationalize. It's likely either some fluke year, or perhaps something was going on. But saying he played a few games less, or played 1B a little, explains it all a little, but the gap is too big to be fully explained by those things.

He slugged .543 that year. His next highest is .428. His career slugging is .419, and that's inflated because of that flukey year. That year is just so flukey and out of whack what what he's done with during rest of his career.

[iPod]

A lot of people had career highs in home runs in 2001; most notably Barry Bonds and Luis Gonzalez, of course, but there seem to have been an unusually high number of people, especially in the NL West, who broke their personal bests that year. Rich Aurilia hit 37 HR that year and hasn't hit more than 23 in any other. Phil Nevin hit 41 that year; his second best is 31. Bubba Trammell (Bubba Trammell) hit exactly the same number of HR as Lo Duca, 25. In Colorado, Todd Helton set his career high with 49, Jeff Cirillo set his career high with 17, and Mike Hampton hit 7 home runs. 3/8 of the Dodgers' regular position players, Lo Duca, Grudzielanek, and Green, had career years for power. It was just a weird year.

[sturg1dj]

you feel bad for a guy who was basically labeled a backup early and never got a chance 'til later....but in the end there are plenty of people more qualified that are not in the HOF


when Thurman Munson and Bill Freehan get it maybe then we'll talk, but even then the conversation may be short

[Fuzzy Bear]

Lo Duca's status as a HOF possibility appears to rest on three things:

(A) He's a FOUR time All-Star (a pretty good total for 6 years in the bigs).

(B) He SHOULD have been a five time All-Star.

(C) His batting stats would be impressive for a catcher if they were projected out to, say, 12 years of play, rather than six.

Lo Duca has been about even with Rick Ferrell, in terms of quality of play, except that Ferrell, supposedly, was better on defense. Lo Duca is a LITTLE better with the stick.

Of course he's not a HOFer, and he probably started to late to ever be one, but that's the case for him, if one must make a case for him.

[philipthegreat]

I don't see him as a Hall of Famer he started to old and is more like a back up catcher or second string rather than the 140 game catchers eg Posada Rodriguez.

[Monarch]

I think he should be in the Hall of Shame for cheating on his Playboy Playmate wife!

[CTaka]

Excellent chance to go to the Hall of Fame. Admission is only $14.50 and LoDuca is making over $6.6M this season.:waving

Inducted? I don't see any chance of that happening. Assuming LoDuca's career follows a normal aging pattern (i.e. not like Barroid), I'd say Walker Cooper is a better candidate than LoDuca.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think he should be in the Hall of Shame for cheating on his Playboy Playmate wife!

I think he's in the Hall of Doghouse on that one! :waving

[hubkittel]

Lo Duca's status as a HOF possibility appears to rest on three things:

(A) He's a FOUR time All-Star (a pretty good total for 6 years in the bigs).

(B) He SHOULD have been a five time All-Star.

(C) His batting stats would be impressive for a catcher if they were projected out to, say, 12 years of play, rather than six.

Lo Duca has been about even with Rick Ferrell, in terms of quality of play, except that Ferrell, supposedly, was better on defense. Lo Duca is a LITTLE better with the stick.

Of course he's not a HOFer, and he probably started to late to ever be one, but that's the case for him, if one must make a case for him.

you left out a couple of other things that add to his HoF case:

1. he finished 19th in mvp voting in 2001
2. he finished 7th in batting in 06
3. he finished 10th in hbp in 02
4. he finished in the top 10 in ab/k six times
5. his number one comp is brian harper, who didn't suck (and interestingly enough is another catcher who got a late start to his career)
6. last, and not least, he played in new york AND los angeles

:shrug:

[Fuzzy Bear]

I never like to say someone has no chance of making the HOF if they're doing some of the things that HOFers do.

If LoDuca kept doing what he's doing until he's 43, we would have to reassess his career.

I don't think he'll be around in his forties, but if he were to keep up what he's doing until age 43, wouldn't we have to reassess him?

[Chisox]

I never like to say someone has no chance of making the HOF if they're doing some of the things that HOFers do.

If LoDuca kept doing what he's doing until he's 43, we would have to reassess his career.

I don't think he'll be around in his forties, but if he were to keep up what he's doing until age 43, wouldn't we have to reassess him?

If he kept up what he's doing until he's 43, we'll have to reassess a few things. However, none more so than Freehan, Simmons, Parrish, Howard, Munson, Downing, Kendall, ect. Then there's the Santiago's, Sanguillen's and Battey's of the world. Considering the year he's had so far, I doubt this will become an issue. BTW 43 would be in 2015. We've got a little more time left.

[Chisox]

you feel bad for a guy who was basically labeled a backup early and never got a chance 'til later....but in the end there are plenty of people more qualified that are not in the HOF


when Thurman Munson and Bill Freehan get it maybe then we'll talk, but even then the conversation may be short
When Deacon McGuire get's in, well' talk.
When Munson and Freehan get in there still will be nothing to discuss.

[Monarch]

I think he's in the Hall of Doghouse on that one! :waving

How about the Hall of Alimony.

[hudsonharden]

I have to interject that I would put Jason Kendall way below Lo Duca and many other catchers. Seven or eight years ago he had a lot of potential but he's taken a huge slide. He can hit well, but he has virtually no power.

[futurehalloffamer]

wickedcurve093, are you our new sockeye?

[Chisox]

I have to interject that I would put Jason Kendall way below Lo Duca and many other catchers. Seven or eight years ago he had a lot of potential but he's taken a huge slide. He can hit well, but he has virtually no power.

I'm not sure why you'd say that. He's got a 103OPS+ with 162SB. He'll also have over 7,000PA by the end of the year. LoDuca has a 102OPS+ with 17SB in 3,000PA less. So how is LoDuca way ahead of Kendall?

[catbox_9]

Excellent chance to go to the Hall of Fame. Admission is only $14.50 and LoDuca is making over $6.6M this season.:waving

Inducted? I don't see any chance of that happening. Assuming LoDuca's career follows a normal aging pattern (i.e. not like Barroid), I'd say Walker Cooper is a better candidate than LoDuca.

I like this post.

As for Loduca, I said no but I won't say he has no shot until he retires. Let's just say he somehow plays until he's 60 (I know that won't happen but let's just say it did) and ends up with 4000 hits he'd be in no problem. Nobody has ever played anywhere near that long but who knows, maybe someday they will. Even old guys like Moyer and Kenny Rogers who I think have almost no shot could get in if they could pitch until they're 50+.

Basically, does he have a realistic shot? No. Is there at least some sort of shot? I guess but he'd have to do things nobody has ever done.

[Robin Yount]

I like LoDuca but he's no hall of famer for reasons listed already

[Fuzzy Bear]

LoDuca's probably done as a regular. He'll be one-and-done in HOF voting.

Rick Ferrell, in the end, is heads and tails ahead of LoDuca, offensively and defensively. LoDuca isn't the player John Roseboro was.

[SilentKiller]

I would love to see an argument by one of the 3 people who voted yes.

[Freakshow]

Catchers debuting since 1993, 3800+ PA
Cnt Player OPS+ DbYr RC OBP SLG PA From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+
1 Jorge Posada 124 1995 923 .380 .477 5874 1995 2008
2 Mike Lieberthal 101 1994 629 .337 .446 4695 1994 2007
3 Jason Varitek 100 1997 675 .346 .439 5041 1997 2008
4 Jason Kendall 98 1996 1020 .371 .388 7685 1996 2008
5 Paul Lo Duca 97 1998 516 .337 .409 4302 1998 2008
6 Charles Johnson 97 1994 550 .330 .433 4385 1994 2005
7 Ramon Hernandez 96 1999 540 .326 .421 4439 1999 2008
8 A.J. Pierzynski 95 1998 510 .326 .428 4169 1998 2008
9 Michael Barrett 89 1998 461 .320 .422 3854 1998 2008
10 Bengie Molina 88 1998 472 .310 .415 4223 1998 2008
11 Brad Ausmus 75 1993 684 .325 .344 6923 1993 2008
12 Mike Matheny 64 1994 382 .293 .344 4287 1994 2006

[philkid3]

http://cdn1.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/31072/3259727094_bb61e2e8d1_o.jpg
Courtesy of Amazin Avenue. (http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/2/6/752120/paulie-walnuts)

[BigRon]

I'm amazed!

No offense to LoDuca, but.....

I'm speechless.

Someone mentioned that he might have a chance if he gets 3000 hits.

He has 1100 and something, and I believe he's 37 this year. I'll be surprised if he gets to 1300.

Nothing against loDuca (except the PED issue). He's been a decent player and has had a decent career. That's it. Maybe a better question- is he among the 100 best catchers ever?

I'd say yes, but not in the top 50.

[Fielding Marshall]

Catchers debuting since 1993, 3800+ PA
Cnt Player OPS+ DbYr RC OBP SLG PA From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+
1 Jorge Posada 124 1995 923 .380 .477 5874 1995 2008
2 Mike Lieberthal 101 1994 629 .337 .446 4695 1994 2007
3 Jason Varitek 100 1997 675 .346 .439 5041 1997 2008
4 Jason Kendall 98 1996 1020 .371 .388 7685 1996 2008
5 Paul Lo Duca 97 1998 516 .337 .409 4302 1998 2008
6 Charles Johnson 97 1994 550 .330 .433 4385 1994 2005
7 Ramon Hernandez 96 1999 540 .326 .421 4439 1999 2008
8 A.J. Pierzynski 95 1998 510 .326 .428 4169 1998 2008
9 Michael Barrett 89 1998 461 .320 .422 3854 1998 2008
10 Bengie Molina 88 1998 472 .310 .415 4223 1998 2008
11 Brad Ausmus 75 1993 684 .325 .344 6923 1993 2008
12 Mike Matheny 64 1994 382 .293 .344 4287 1994 2006

Wow, Mike Lieberthal is a lot higher than I expected. This is the first time I've given him any real HoF consideration...

Obviously, Posada should be in the HoF. Varitek was instrumental to the success of his teams and was probably the player most responsible for the 2004 WS title; he should be in, too.

And Kendall's .371 OBP is 2nd-highest to Posada's .380. No one else got higher than .346...

[Fielding Marshall]

Someone mentioned that he might have a chance if he gets 3000 hits.



Wait, seriously?

No catcher in MLB history has ever gotten 3,000 hits. Ivan Rodriguez and Ted Simmons have historically been the only ones with a legitimate shot, though Joe Mauer has a chance. If a catcher gets 2,000 hits, he immediately becomes a strong contender for Cooperstown.

Paul LoDuca will likely never even reach 2,000 hits, let alone 3,000.

[Fielding Marshall]

Excellent chance to go to the Hall of Fame. Admission is only $14.50 and LoDuca is making over $6.6M this season.:waving



That's awesome...

[BigRon]

I didn't say LoDuca could get 3000 hits. ChrisLDuncan in post #2 said he wouldn't vote for him unless he got 3000 hits.

I'm standing by my earlier claim that he won't reach 1300. He needs 188 more, he's 37 yrs old. I think I'll win this one.

[RuthMayBond]

No offense, wicked curve, but LoDuca just might be the least deserving player I've seen a thread dedicated to in this forum.Yes, he will make it, put EVERYONE in

[Freakshow]

Yes, he will make it, put EVERYONE inWell, it IS called the Hall of "Fame". Was LoDuca famous? Yes!:crazy

[RuthMayBond]

Well, it IS called the Hall of "Fame". Was LoDuca famous? Yes!:crazyHim and Bo Belinsky

[Freakshow]

Him and Bo BelinskyHeck, anyone named Bo should go in the HOF. Bo Jackson, Bo Diaz, Bo McLaughlin - come on down! You too, Bobby-Bo. And Bobo Newsom, put him in TWICE. :D

[RuthMayBond]

Heck, anyone named Bo should go in the HOF. Bo Jackson, Bo Diaz, Bo McLaughlin - come on down! You too, Bobby-Bo. And Bobo Newsom, put him in TWICE. :DAnd to think, you are in post #6 :laugh

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=87918