How confident are you about your rotation?

[VTSoxFan]

Pitching is the backbone of a team, of course, and a good rotation can make up for a lot of other deficiencies in a team. Conversely, a team can hit the cover off the ball, but if the rotation gives the runs back, it doesn't amount to anything.

I feel pretty confident about Boston's rotation, but there are still a lot of unknown quantities.

My take, and some shot-in-the-dark predictions:

Schilling: His age, for one. He's still good, and posted pretty decent numbers last season, but one has to wonder when time will really start to take its toll. He's experimenting with a changeup this season; we have yet to see how that works for him. He's also got a lot of other interest and obligations (business, blog, charities), not to mention his unresolved contract situation. Will these prove distracting? I think his ERA will come out a round 4.00, give or take. He'll notch about 17 wins.

Matsuzaka: Despite all the coverage, we still don't really know what he'll do. He was pretty good in ST, but it's foolish to make a serious prediciton based on ST numbers. With his poise and confidence and an impressive array of pitches, he should more than hold his own, but there could easily be some problems adjusting to the Majors. He won't embarrass himself, but I don't think he'll win the CYA, either. ERA around 3.50, 17-20 wins.

Beckett: Having been through a year in the AL, I think he'll have a better season this year. He knows and acknowledges that he can't rely on pure power to win in this league, and has said he will mix up his speeds and pitches. He's a better pitcher than we saw last year, and plenty young enough to adapt. ERA -- probably a little north of 4.00, but better than last year. 15-17 wins.

Wakefield: Ah, Wake. :) We all know what to expect from him, as he lives and dies by the knuckleball. ERA around 4.50, 12-15 wins.

Tavarez: Well..... Derek Lowe made a successful switch to the rotation in '02, and put up CYA-worthy numbers. Like Lowe, Tavarez relies on the sinker.. but our infield defense has been diminshed a lot from last season. (rats!) He's excited to have the opportunity to start, and this may be a brilliant move. Or it may not. I have no clue as to what his numbers might be. ERA.... close to 5.00 (lots of seeing-eye singles) and maybe 11 wins? But I wouldn't bet the farm on that.

So, how about some quick summations of other teams' rotations? Let's hear it, and don't forget your crystal-ball predictions.

[redlegsfan21]

Aaron Harang: 9
Bronson Arroyo: 10
Kyle Lohse: 6
Matt Belisle: 7
Eric Milton: 1
Kirk Saarloos: 5

Confidence Scale (1-10, 10 the highest)

[The Dude]

Ben Sheets: He's healthier than he's ever been, and looks better than he ever has. Everyone in the league knows that when he's on, he's unstoppable. My confidence level is at about an 8. I trust that he is in the best shape ever, but it's baseball, and who knows. 20 Wins, 3.60 ERA, 10-1 K-BB ratio.

Chris Capuano: One of the best pitchers before the All-Star break last season, and still finished with an all-right season. This is Capuano's fourth season working with Mike Maddux, so I expect this year to be even greater than the previous. I'd rate him at about an 8. He'll throw 200 innings and half a great first half. But I'm not so sure about his second half. 15-20 Wins, 3.50 ERA.

Jeff Suppan: I'm completefly confident in Suppan. 10 out of 10. He'll throw 200 innings and win 15 games with a 4.00 ERA. The only thing is, he might lose a large amount too, because the defense behind him isn't as quality as it was in St. Louis. Hardy is fabulous. Hall is supposedly good. Jenkins and Hart are very good. Graffanino/Consell are pretty good, and Fielder isn't half bad. Weeks in the weakest spot, but he's improving. But he'll be there game in and game out this season.

Dave Bush: Probably the most underrated pitcher in the NL central. 4th in WHIP, 1st in K-BB, and 210 IP in his first full season as a starter. My confidence in bush is a 7. Milwaukee fans knew he was going to be great, but that great? Give me another season like that and my confidence will increase greatly. 15 Wins with a 3.50 ERA.

Claudio Vargas: Vargas is the "weak" spot in the rotation if we have one. My confidence level is 5. IT was lower going into spring training, but after listening to his performance and hearing Mike Maddux talk about him and the work they're doing, I have to put more faith in the guy. 10-12 Wins with a 4.00 ERA

[KCGHOST]

In KC we are thrilled everytime a pitcher appears in a game in any capacity and doesn't go on the DL immediately afterward.

[mojorisin71]

Every time I feel confident about one of our players, he always goes down with an injury or pulls off an Odalis Perez and serves up batting practive all around. And this year, we have a lot of question marks in the rotation. Will Wolf's arm fall off? Will Penny's 2007 season be a continuation of the post-All Star break slump? Will Grady Little be dumb enough to reinsert Mark Hendrickson in the rotation?

[KHenry14]

The Giants rotation could be excellent...or it could implode.

Zito--a flyball pitcher in a flyball park. Eat innings.
Cain--a budding superstar. If he can find just a bit more control could be outstanding. But that's a big if.
Lowry--Injury on his first start last year impacted his whole season. If he gets better command of all his pitches, he could win 15
Morris--dude pitched with broken ribs for a large part of last season, and while his performance suffered, he won a lot of fans becuase of that. Could bounce back
Ortiz--after two horrible seasons, Russ has found the problem with his delivery and is poised for a big comeback.

This group could win 75 games if things break right. 45 if they don't. Biggest worry is the pen however. That 75 win total could really be impacted if the pen continues to blow saves.

Also, if things go south, expect to see phenom Tim Lincecom by the ASG.

KH14<--takes another chug of orange and black kool-aid!

[wickedcurve093]

Glavine:10
Hernandez:7
Maine:8
Perez:5
Pelfrey:7

[GotMelk?]

Wang 15
Pettite 14
Mussina 16
Pavano 9
Igawa 10

[Mariano_Rivera]

I`m very confident in the Yankees rotation, okay I have them in the top 2 or so in the whole AL. :D

[Francoeurstein]

Braves:

I think they are solid, they'll succeed.

Smoltz- No problems at all.
Hudson- Not very good eversince he came to Atlanta, hopefully he will pitch like he did back in Oakland.
James- Amazing pitcher, but don't get your hopes up could be another fluke.
Redman- Actually, I think he might actually have a good year.. an allstar last year but the royals didnt have much other choice he was their only pitcher above .500
???-???

[-Kyle-]

Igawa 10
10 out of 10 for Igawa? Seriously? :confused:

You know that you gave Wang 15 out of 10, and others above the ten mark right? :rolleyes:

Schilling: 8
Beckett: 6
Matsuzaka: 8
Wakefield: 10 (you always know what you are getting from him.)
Tavarez: 5

[Mariano_Rivera]

10 out of 10 for Igawa? Seriously? :confused:

You know that you gave Wang 15 out of 10, and others above the ten mark right? :rolleyes:

Schilling: 8
Beckett: 6
Matsuzaka: 8
Wakefield: 10 (you always know what you are getting from him.)
Tavarez: 5

I think those might have been wins

My raatings out of 10 (5 is average, 10 is Santana, 1 is Steve Trachsel)....

Wang- 6
Pettitte- 8
Mussina- 9
Pavano- 5
Igawa- 6

Youa re overrating Tavarez and Wakefield by a ton

[Erik Bedard]

On a scale of one to ten...

Bedard- 100
Cabrera- 7
Wright-3
Loewen- 9
Trachsel- -4

[Westlake]

Youa re overrating Tavarez and Wakefield by a ton

How is he overrating Wake? He knows Wake is a 4.50 ERA type guy. He just means he is confident that he will get that. At least thats what I got from it.

[redlegsfan21]

How is he overrating Wake? He knows Wake is a 4.50 ERA type guy. He just means he is confident that he will get that. At least thats what I got from it.

I rated mine on the bases of my confidence thay will go and get a quality start and I might up Harang to 10 (I wasn't sure how he would do at home).

[west coast orange and black]

ken: The Giants rotation could be excellent...or it could implode.
pretty decent, but "excellant"? keep chuggin' ken. :rolleyes:

Zito--flyball pitcher in a flyball park. Eat innings.
on his way to earning that big k.

Cain--a budding superstar. If he can find just a bit more control could be outstanding. But that's a big if.
more poised. better control. i think the if is actually a small if.

Lowry--If he gets better command of all his pitches, he could win 15.
fully expect lowry to be shipped out by asg. :ughh

Morris--dude pitched with broken ribs for a large part of last season. Could bounce back.
will carry his fair share of the load.

Ortiz--Russ has found the problem with his delivery and is poised for a big comeback.
a solid #3 pitcher right now, and could improve.

This group could win 75 games if things break right. 45 if they don't.
68, tops; but will win 45, minimum.

Biggest worry is the pen however.
you got that right, man.

if things go south, expect to see phenom Tim Lincecom by the ASG.
giants were never tempted to open the season with him as one of 25. but a call-up does seems inevitable.

KH14<--takes another chug of orange and black kool-aid!
save some for me!

[-Kyle-]

I think those might have been wins

My raatings out of 10 (5 is average, 10 is Santana, 1 is Steve Trachsel)....

Wang- 6
Pettitte- 8
Mussina- 9
Pavano- 5
Igawa- 6

Youa re overrating Tavarez and Wakefield by a ton

This is not how good they are, just how confident I feel about them and knowing what I am going to get. Wakefield has been 200 innings usually and a 4.5 ERA, and I am somewhat confident in Tavarez, because he said he wants to pitch and was not terrible. I think 5 is ok, maybe a bit higher than it should be.

[GotMelk?]

Wang 15
Pettite 14
Mussina 16
Pavano 9
Igawa 10
Woops...I predicted wins.

[Future:Greatest2BofAll-Time]

Schmidt-9
Lowe- 8
Penny-6
Wolf-3
Tomko-1

Schmidt will hopfully be what he has been and doesn't pull an Odalis Perez like what mojorisin71 said. Lowe is usually up and down. He will shut you down one game and get blown up in the next, but I feel with Schmidt as the Ace now Lowe will feel like there is no pressure on him. Everybody else I'm really not that high on them.

[woodworthjohn]

I am very happy with the Indians rotation.

CC Sabathia
Jeremy Sowers
Jake Westbrook
Paul Byrd
And when he returns Cliff Lee.

Will be one of the best rotations again in 2007.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Smoltz- 10
Hudson- 8, he should have a much better season this year.
James- 8, about as confident in him as Hudson. He has the stuff, just needs to keep pounding it in there.
Cormier- 7, he actually showed us how well he can do in spring training, and quite frankly, I think he can do it again and again. Even after last season's stinkiness.
Redman- 6, all I expect him to do is eat innings and give the Braves occassional good games until Mike Hampton gets back from his injury. For that matter...
Hampton- 5, still very injury-prone. I expect him and Redman to be at about the same level of effectiveness.

[-Kyle-]

Woops...I predicted wins.

Makes much more sense. :nod:

[holyroman]

Feel pretty good about the top 3.
oswalt-10 -wins- 19
jennings-8 -wins- 16
woody-7 -wins- 13
wandy-6.5 -wins-13
sampson-6 -wins- 9

[cardsfanatic]

Carpenter - 10 (although, with his injury, who knows.)
Wells - 3
Wainright - 5 (I'm 50/50 on him. Seeing as this is his first year in the rotiation I can't be overly confident but from what I've seen, I'm sort of confident he'll do fine.)
Reyes - 5 (Same as Wainright)
Looper - 3

When all is said and one, our rotation ultimately relies on two youngtsers. If Wainright and Reyes do well then our team will do well. If they struggle then we'll struggle. Our offense should be aces. Our bullpen should be fine. Our rotation is what has me worried.

[TheKingofKings]

1. Jeremy Bonderman (8)
2. Nate Robertson (7)
3. Justin Verlander (7)
4. Mike Maroth (5)
5. Chad Durbin (2)

(1-10)= Confidence Grade

[mikeymussina35]

Confidence Levels::::: (1-10 being highest)

1. Wang (7)
2. Pettitte (9)
3. Mussina (8)
4. Pavano (4)
5. Igawa ::: Still unsure about him but probably (6)

[mikeymussina35]

Glavine:10
Hernandez:7
Maine:8
Perez:5
Pelfrey:7


Whooah!!!!!!!!!!!!! Pelfrey 7!! :dismay: :dismay:
Perez 5!! :dismay: :dismay:

No offense but you overated Perez a little and PELFRY WAYYYYY TOOOOO Much!! :dismay:

[Colorado Express]

Scale based on confidence in performance (1 to 10 with 10 being the best)...


Santana (10 - a lock for 2.60-2.80 ERA and 17-24 W)
Bonser (7 - should be pretty solid 3.30-3.80 ERA and 14-17 W)
Ortiz (4 - likely a 4.40+ ERA, but still good for 12-14 W)
Silva (4 - who knows 3.40-5.40 ERA and 8-14 W)
Ponson (2 - likely off the team by June 4.50-8.50 ERA and 2-4 W)
________

Garza (4 - likely joining the team as a replacement for Silva or Ponson by June - should be good for 4.40+ ERA and 7-10 W)
Baker (4 - likely to join the team as a replacement for Silva or Ponson by July - should be good for 4.00+ ERA and 6-9 W)

The uncertainty of Silva, Ponson, Garza and Baker is what makes the Twins such a tough team to predict. There seems to be a lot of potential, but very little guarantees.

[wilkerson_rulz-06]

My Nats' rotation may be "bad" according to many of you, but this is how it'll shape up for me.

1. John Patterson (8.5- Despite playing only 8 games last year and injuries limiting his effectiveness in his first start, I believe Pats will bounce back...
Look up his 2005 season, the numbers tell it all.)
2. Shawn Hill (5- Was lights-out in ST--had somethin' like a 1.39 ERA--but I don't expect him to be that dominant in the season, he had a decent stint last year before getting injured, and it's anybody's guess how he'll do this year)
3. Matt Chico (4- Chico was the no. 1 ranked prospect in the D'Backs organisation, the Nats got him for Livan Hernandez and they hope he'll prosper into a great pitcher soon. He was hit hard in his first start (6 runs in 3innings), but that's normal for a young guy like him, again, like Hill, it's anyone's guess.)
4. Jason Bergmann (4.5- Berg's been up and down in his first two Nationals season, he started a few games at the end of the season and was also hit hard. He's put up average numbers so far in his career, he also has something the other 2 don't have: experience.He made the team, despite having a terrible 2006 season.)
5. Jerome Williams (5.5- Williams has had a puzzling career, but he's looking to have his best season yet. After a terrific spring, Williams will be the backbone of this questionable rotation. His starts will all be significant because of something else he has: experience.)

THIS IS A HUGE MISCONCEPTION!

The Nationals rotation, contrary to general belief, IS NOT INEXPERIENCED.
Shawn Hil and Matt Chico are the only, shall we say, "inexperienced ones".
Hill has had a few career starts, Chico has had none.

THAT IS IT, only Chico and Hill are inexperienced.

The rest...Pats, Berg and Williams have all pitched for significant time in the majors.

Hope some of you will learn something from this.

[-Kyle-]

1. Jeremy Bonderman (8)
2. Nate Robertson (7)
3. Justin Verlander (7)
4. Mike Maroth (5)
5. Chad Durbin (2)

(1-10)= Confidence Grade

:cry: You told me you were a Red Sox fan!

[wickedcurve093]

2 excellent outings fromGlavine and El Duqe the first 2 games of the season! Now I'm even more confident! :nod:

[Cubsfan97]

We got Ted Lilly 2nd in our rotation, how confident can I be?

[redlegsfan21]

We got Ted Lilly 2nd in our rotation, how confident can I be?

So I guessing last night, the fault is at the Reds batters who don't know how to swing, let alone hit the ball.

Haha, my 2000th K.

[ReignInBlood]

Jake Peavy (7) He looked good in Spring Training, but I don't know if he can rebound from the off year he had in 2006.
Chris Young (9) 11-5 3.46 last year, hopefully he'll have a better year in 2007.
Greg Maddux (8) He's old but can still get it going.
David Wells (6) He's what? 43? and was diagnosed with diabetes.
Clay Hensley (8) Young and promising, had a 2.66 ERA after the all star break last year.

[Cubsfan97]

Zambrano- 10, I fully trust Big Z to have a great season
Lilly- 6, last night was good, if he gets those a lot then we will be fine
Marquis- 7, He was pretty good before 2006...had an off year, is willing to listen to Rothschild this year
Rich Hill- 5, hes young, he finally had sucess in bigs last year, should have a normal rookie style season this year
Wade Miller- 4, injuries scare me, better than Prior though.

[sturg1dj]

1. Jeremy Bonderman (8)
2. Nate Robertson (7)
3. Justin Verlander (7)
4. Mike Maroth (5)
5. Chad Durbin (2)

(1-10)= Confidence Grade


1. Bonderman 7 - he flakes under pressure...but when hes on hes unhittable
2. Robertson 7
3. Verlander 9
4. Maroth 7 - my confidence is that he will get what we expect....6 innings of nickel and dime pitching
5a. Durban ?? - I have never seen him pitch, which makes me ashamed of myself
5b.Ledezma 6 - I love this guy...be he will probably stay in the pen
5c. Miller 5 - stud, but young
5d. Miner 5 - pitched well last season
5e. Tata 4 - struggled, but I liked what I saw...and its the 5th starter for crying out loud.....i mean a couple of years ago we Tiger fans were worried about our #1 starter

[mojorisin71]

Jake Peavy (7) He looked good in Spring Training, but I don't know if he can rebound from the off year he had in 2006.
Chris Young (9) 11-5 3.46 last year, hopefully he'll have a better year in 2007.
Greg Maddux (8) He's old but can still get it going.
David Wells (6) He's what? 43? and was diagnosed with diabetes.
Clay Hensley (8) Young and promising, had a 2.66 ERA after the all star break last year.

I'd give Chris Young a 10 in road starts.

[wu-tang clan]

Santana- 10- definitely going to be a Cy Young candidate again
Bonser- 7- Showed a lot of promise at the end of last year and his first start impressed me a lot.
Ortiz- 6- Didnt know how good he was going to be but also had a promising first start.
Ponson- 4- Haven't seen him pitch, but i doubt he is going to stay on the rotation for the whole year.
Silva- 4- The biggest question mark on the whole rotation. Had a few good games last year, but overall he was quite terrible. He also had a bad spring (8.44 ERA). Will we see the Carlos Silva of 2004-2005, or will we see the less good 2006 version??? :think: <--- great emoticon for this situation.

[ReignInBlood]

I'd give Chris Young a 10 in road starts.

:nod: Yeah, 6-0 2.51 ERA 1.01 WHIP .176 BAA, just insane.

[Whitesoxnut]

Zambrano- 10, I fully trust Big Z to have a great season
Lilly- 6, last night was good, if he gets those a lot then we will be fine
Marquis- 7, He was pretty good before 2006...had an off year, is willing to listen to Rothschild this year
Rich Hill- 5, hes young, he finally had sucess in bigs last year, should have a normal rookie style season this year
Wade Miller- 4, injuries scare me, better than Prior though.

I would say one of the biggest stories out of the short season, so far, is the Cubs starting pitching. If these guys keep throwing like this the Cubs are going to take their division and just may go deep into Oct.

Ive been watching these guys. They haven't been throwing a fluke, they have had very good stuff. Ive been saying all off season Marquis stuff is better then a lot of people think. When his sinker is on he's very hard to hit hard. Lilly is very effective when he has good location. So far, spring included, he has been placing the ball anywheres he wants.

When Lilly is always up in the count 1-2, 0-2,...ect he can hurt you. His off-speed stuff is NASTY! The Cubs are pitching far more aggressively this year because they know they have an offense behind them.

The WhiteSox??? They had a real bad spring pitching wise and Ive been very anxious about their starting rotation. On the other hand they have 4 proven arms in the rotation, all of whom are capable of winning over 15 games this year. And the Sox have a powerful offense. I cant say I'm more worried about their pitching this year then last but pitching is the one thing I'm always worried about.

Pitching is a separate thing all on its own. I always worry about pitching. Yesterdays effort, "3 hits by the piranhas", has left me less worried. If the Sox pitching plays up to what they are capable of this year they will be a very dangerous team.

[plask_stirlac]

THIS IS A HUGE MISCONCEPTION!

The Nationals rotation, contrary to general belief, IS NOT INEXPERIENCED.
Shawn Hil and Matt Chico are the only, shall we say, "inexperienced ones".
Hill has had a few career starts, Chico has had none.

THAT IS IT, only Chico and Hill are inexperienced.

The rest...Pats, Berg and Williams have all pitched for significant time in the majors.

Hope some of you will learn something from this.

8 starts for Bergmann is not experience. You said two were inexperienced. Patterson and Jerome Williams are experienced to some extent, at league average pitching levels.

Patterson has one season, 2005, he was good but gave up plenty of homers for his park. There's NO season worth a damn to back that one up. Without that he'd be like Mike Maroth.

The Nats' rotation has precious little above-average experience or even proven 30 start, league average pitching (which is valuable).

[punker268]

Myers: 6
Hamels: 5
Garcia: Not sure. haven't seen him pitch but I'll give him a 5
Moyer: 7
Eaton: 2

overall: 6
I most worried about the Phillies bullpen. If the starter is taken out of the game too early, the game goes to the dogs. The bullpen is starting like last year's, crappy and unreliable in the first half, better in the second-not much of a sore spot. I'm worried about having Lieber in the 'pen. Even if it was Eaton (which I'd rather have),I think they'd play bad because they want to get traded because they don't like the bullpen

[rdonahue]

1. Jeremy Bonderman (8)
2. Nate Robertson (7)
3. Justin Verlander (7)
4. Mike Maroth (5)
5. Chad Durbin (2)

(1-10)= Confidence Grade

Now that we're a third of the way through the year here's my opinions.

1. Jeremy Bonderman - 9
2. Justin Verlander - 7 (still worried about September)
3. Chad Durbin - 6
4. Mike Maroth - 3
5. Andrew Miller (in for now with Robertson on the DL) - 2

as for the others who will start / have started:
1. Kenny Rogers - 7
2. Zach Miner - 4
3. Nate Robertson - 3
4. Virgil Vasquez - 1

[Mission27]

3 for nate robertson? interesting..

i like this 1-10 confidence scale lol

as of right now...

Wang: 8
Mussina: 7
Clemens: 7
Pettitte: 10
Clippard: 5 (gaining about a point per start lately)

other possible starters
Hughes: 7 with potential of like 9
Karstens: 4
Rasner: 4
Igawa: -10

eh.. guess im a really confident fan lol

[redlegsfan21]

Right Now
Aaron Harang-2
Bronson Arroyo-1
Kyle Lohse-1
Matt Belisle-1
The ever-changing 5th spot-1

[Erik Bedard]

As of right now:

Bedard - 10
Guthrie - 10
Trachsel - 6
Burres - 7 (check out his stats!)
Cabrera - 5

Bullpen aside from Williamson - -85

Mission27, you must be the most confident fan of a fourth-place team ever. Wang an 8? Clemens and Mussina 7s? If I were a Yankee fan, this is what I'd have:

Wang - 6
Clemens - 3 (could be higher, but he's old and has yet to pitch a game)
Mussina - 5
Pettitte - 8-9
Clippard - 7 (the guy is the real deal, if he weren't a Yankee I'd root for him)

[TheKingofKings]

1- Tom Glavine: 5-3, 3.36
2- El Duque: 3-1, 1.94
3- John Maine: 6-3, 2.78
4- Oliver Perez: 6-4, 2.80
5- Jorge Sosa: 6-1, 2.64

Bullpen Wins: 10

THE AMAZIN' METS ARE BACK!

[JordanDL3891]

Hope some of you will learn something from this.

yup, we learned the nats suck! :happy: