BBF Mock HoF Election: 1989

[DoubleX]

Welcome to Baseball Fever's Mock HoF Election for 1989. The goal of this project is to conduct Hall of Fame elections from 1979-2007, as if we were the BBWAA, and then compare our results to the actual BBWAA results. For the most part, we will proceed just like BBWAA does. 1979 was selected as the start date as that is when the BBWAA elections first implemented the 5% rule (though it was not always adhered to).

This post will provide three things:

1) The Format and Rules

2) A Guide for the 1989 Election

3) Some Personal Thoughts and Observations


Format and Rules
- The BBF ballot will consist of the same players that were on the BBWAA ballot, except for in instances where we have elected, dropped, or sustained on the ballot different players than the BBWAA (which will likely be quite a few).

- Voters may vote for between 0-10 candidates. A "None of the Above" option is available if you believe no one is worthy and you wish to submit a blank ballot.

- Adjusting Ballots: Anyone who votes for more than 10 candidates will have all their votes discounted unless they inform me within 48 hours of submitting their vote (or the close of the election, whichever comes first) of the mistake and which players they wish to discount. In such a situation, if I am not informed of the players to be dropped, I will discount that voter's entire ballot. If a voter habitually submits a ballot with more than 10 players, they risk having their votes discounted in all present and future elections. Otherwise, there will be no adjusting ballots after submitted, even if you forgot to vote for someone you meant to vote for or clicked on the wrong player. So please think carefully about your ballot before voting and make sure you have selected everyone you intend to vote for (up to 10).

- 75% support or greater will elect a player. Players receiving less than 5% will be dropped from all future elections (even if in reality, that player was included in future BBWAA elections). Players receiving 5% or more but less than 75% will stay on the ballot for the next election, unless that player's 15-year eligibility is over.

- The election will close exactly a week after it started. The next election might not commence for another day or two.

- IMPORTANT: There is some concern about voters defrauding this process by voting with multiple screen names. First, please don't as there is really no point and it takes the fun out of this which is to see how we come out, more than it being a heated competition to get your player elected. Nevertheless, to take precaution against the possibility of a voter abusing the process, votes will be made public, so if we see unfamiliar screen names casting similar ballots, we'll see cause for concern, and if the concern proves to be founded, some form of punitive action could follow. So basically, ONE PERSON = ONE BALLOT. Anything else is really just moronic and defeats the purpose.

- Also, in the interest of making this process as genuine as possible, I strongly urge voters to not view the results before they vote, as viewing results before voting could influence a person's votes (perhaps subconsciously).

- This thread is also meant to be a discussion thread, so please feel free to stump for and/or against players, including players that will come up for election in the following year.


1989 Guide
There are 41 candidates on the 1989 BBF ballot. Here's some information regarding the candidates:

First Timers (20)
Jim Barr
Johnny Bench
Bert Campaneris
Terry Crowley
Joe Ferguson
Woodie Fryman
Cesar Geronimo
Dave Goltz
Fergie Jenkins
Jim Kaat
Jon Matlack
Rudy May
Bake McBride
Don Money
Bobby Murcer
Gaylord Perry
Bill Robinson
Gene Tenace
Carl Yastrzemski
Richie Zisk

Holdovers (21)
Player Year of Eligibility High BBF Support Previous Year’s BBF Support
Luis Aparicio 11th 67.39% (1987) 64.29%
Sal Bando 3rd 19.57% (1987) 9.52%
Bobby Bonds 3rd 28.26% (1987) 14.29%
Ken Boyer 15th 33.33% (1986) 30.95%
Jim Bunning 13th 69.57% (1987) 59.52%
Norm Cash 10th 19.57% (1987) 9.52%
Curt Flood 13th 13.04% (1987) 9.52%
Bill Freehan 8th 41.17% (1986) 35.71%
Frank Howard 10th 27.46% (1986) 26.19%
Catfish Hunter 5th 32.69% (1985) 26.09%
Sparky Lyle 2nd 7.14% (1988) 7.14%
Bill Mazeroski 12th 37.10% (1980 & 1984) 30.95%
Minnie Minoso 4th 66.67% (1988) 66.67%
Thurman Munson 9th 17.39% (1987) 14.29%
Tony Oliva 8th 36.96% (1987) 26.19%
Boog Powell 7th 17.74% (1984) 14.29%
Reggie Smith 2nd 23.81% (1988) 23.81%
Luis Tiant 2nd 40.48% (1988) 40.48%
Joe Torre 7th 61.54% (1985) 52.38%
Maury Wills 12th 16.13% (1984) 11.90%
Jimmy Wynn 7th 34.62% (1985) 19.05%

Last Year of Eligibility
Ken Boyer – Interestingly, in reality, Boyer stayed on the ballot until 1994. The explanation for this appears to be that after being dropped due to the 5% rule in 1979 after five years on the ballot, he, as well as several other players, was reintroduced to the ballot in 1985, and stayed for 10 more years, giving him 15 years in total, even though his eligibility technically ended in 1989. A similar thing happened to Ron Santo who first appeared on the ballot in 1980, was dropped that year, was reintroduced in 1985, and stayed until 1998, giving him 15 years total on the ballot. Given that we never dropped and reintroduced Boyer, he will not stay on the ballot past this year.

Players on BBF Ballot not on BBWAA Ballot (9)
Luis Aparicio - Elected by BBWAA (1984)
Sal Bando – Dropped by BBWAA (1987)
Norm Cash – Dropped by BBWAA (1980)
Bill Freehan – Dropped by BBWAA (1982)
Frank Howard - Dropped by BBWAA (1979)
Catfish Hunter – Elected by BBWAA (1987)
Boog Powell – Dropped by BBWAA (1983)
Reggie Smith – Dropped by BBWAA (1988)
Jimmy Wynn – Dropped by BBWAA (1983)

Players on BBWAA Ballot not on BBF Ballot (10)
Dick Allen – Elected by BBF (1985)
Orlando Cepeda - Elected by BBF (1984)
Elston Howard – Dropped by BBF (1981)
Roy Face - Dropped by BBF (1979)
Harvey Kuenn - Dropped by BBF (1979)
Mickey Lolich – Dropped by BBF (1985)
Manny Mota – Dropped by BBF (1988)
Vada Pinson - Dropped by BBF (1983)
Ron Santo - Elected by BBF (1980)
Wilbur Wood - Dropped by BBF (1984)

Actual Hall of Famers on BBF Ballot (6)
Luis Aparicio (BBWAA - 1984)
Johnny Bench (BBWAA – 1989)
Jim Bunning (VC - 1996)
Catfish Hunter (BBWAA – 1987)
Fergie Jenkins (BBWAA – 1991)
Bill Mazeroski (VC - 2001)
Gaylord Perry (BBWAA – 1991)
Carl Yastrzemski (BBWAA – 1989)

Players Elected by BBF between 1979-1988 (19)
Player BBF Election Year BBF Election Percentage Year on Ballot
Hank Aaron 1982 100.00% 1st
Dick Allen 1985 75.00% 3rd
Richie Ashburn 1979 75.41% 12th (1st for BBF)
Lou Brock 1988 76.19% 4th
Orlando Cepeda 1984 79.03% 5th
Don Drysdale 1983 79.03% 9th (5th for BBF)
Bob Gibson 1981 89.83% 1st
Al Kaline 1980 90.32% 1st
Harmon Killebrew 1981 93.22% 1st
Juan Marichal 1981 79.66% 1st
Willie Mays 1979 98.36% 1st
Willie McCovey 1986 100.00% 1st
Brooks Robinson 1983 88.71% 1st
Frank Robinson 1982 100.00% 1st
Ron Santo 1980 82.26% 1st
Duke Snider 1979 83.61% 10th (1st for BBF)
Willie Stargell 1988 88.10% 1st
Hoyt Wilhelm 1979 77.05% 2nd (1st for BBF)
Billy Williams 1982 80.00% 1st

Players Elected by BBF by Position
Catcher (0):
First Base (4): Dick Allen, Orlando Cepeda, Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey
Second Base (0):
Shortstop (0):
Third Base (2): Brooks Robinson, Ron Santo
Left Field (3): Lou Brock, Willie Stargell, Billy Williams
Center Field (3): Richie Ashburn, Willie Mays, Duke Snider
Right Field (3): Hank Aaron, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson

Starting Pitcher (3): Don Drysdale, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal
Relief Pitcher (1): Hoyt Wilhelm

Players Elected by BBWAA between 1979-1988 (17)
Hank Aaron (1982)
Luis Aparicio (1984)
Lou Brock (1985)
Don Drysdale (1984)
Bob Gibson (1981)
Catfish Hunter (1987)
Al Kaline (1980)
Harmon Killebrew (1984)
Juan Marichal (1983)
Willie Mays (1979)
Willie McCovey (1986)
Brooks Robinson (1983)
Frank Robinson (1982)
Duke Snider (1980)
Willie Stargell (1988)
Hoyt Wilhelm (1985)
Billy Williams (1987)

BBF/BBWAA Election Ratio
19:17

Players Elected by BBF but not BBWAA between 1979-1988 (4)
Dick Allen (1985)
Richie Ashburn (1979)
Orlando Cepeda (1984)
Ron Santo (1980)

Players Elected by BBWAA but not BBF between 1979-1988 (2)
Luis Aparicio (1984)
Catfish Hunter (1987)

Players Dropped by BBF After 15 Years on Ballot (7)
Nellie Fox (1985)
Gil Hodges (1983)
Ted Kluszewski (1981)
Don Newcombe (1980)
Red Schoendienst (1983)
Enos Slaughter (1979)

Years in which Zero Players Elected by BBF between 1979-1988
1987

Years in which Zero Players Elected by BBWAA between 1979-1988
None

Number of Ballots Submitted in Past BBF Elections
1979: 61
1980: 62
1981: 59
1982: 55
1983: 62
1984: 62
1985: 52
1986: 51
1987: 46
1988: 42

Links to Past BBF Elections
1979 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=56114&highlight=Mock+Election)
1980 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=56470&highlight=Mock+Election)
1981 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=56809&highlight=Mock+Election)
1982 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=57089&highlight=Mock+Election)
1983 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=57376)
1984 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=57694)
1985 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=58020)
1986 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=58308)
1987 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=58590)
1988 (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=58882)


Thoughts and Observations
1) Newcomers: This might be the best class of newcomers we’ve had in years, and most certainly the best in the last few years. The class is headlined by real Hall of Famers, Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski, Gaylord Perry, and Fergie Jenkins. Jim Kaat headlines the rest and he too might put forth a strong candidacy here. After that we have guys like Bert Campaneris, Bobby Murcer, and Gene Tenace, who could get some support.

2) Holdovers and Strategic Voting: After a banner year for most holdovers in 1987, most regressed in 1988. Now,w due to the influx of new strong candidates, it will be interesting to see if that causes any of the holdovers to drop off the ballot this year due to voters not having enough votes to vote for everyone they feel is worthy. Strategic voting could come into play this year as voters might want to attempt to preserve a candidate at the expense of voting for a perceived shoe-in. I’m not advocating strategic voting, but I am letting it be known that there is nothing technically wrong with it should you choose to pursue it. Also, just to highlight some of the holdovers:
- Minnie Minoso: Minoso was the top vote-getter amongst holdovers last year. I really urge people to take a long hard look at Minoso. He was a complete player that did everything well and that starred for a decade despite not getting a real shot at the Majors until age 28 due to segregation. Had he broke in earlier, there is little doubt in my mind that he’d have a Hall of Fame Major League career. There’s also the element that he was a major inspiration for Hispanic ballplayers – before there was Clemente, there was Minoso. Keeping him out, IMO, is unfairly punishing him further for the ignorance of segregation.
- Luis Aparicio: He had the second highest support among holdovers from last year. He seems to have made a steady climb over the years and perhaps in a down year, enough support can be gathered to get him over the hump.
- Jim Bunning and Pitchers: He finished third among holdovers, but dropped 10% from the year before and got pretty near election. With Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins, and Jim Kaat coming on the ballot this year, and Luis Tiant last year, it will be interesting to see if Bunning can make that final push over the next few years, which will be his last on the ballot.
- Sparky Lyle and Relievers: I didn’t vote for Lyle, but I’m happy to see that he managed to stay on, though I don’t know if he can survive this tougher year. I’m now interested to see how other relievers will fare when they come up.
- Ken Boyer: As I noted up above, this is Boyer’s last year on the ballot, but the interesting thing is that he stayed on the BBWAA ballot until 1994. This appears to be because he was dropped in 1979 after 5 years on the ballot, but was reintroduced, along with several others, in 1985, and was then given 10 more years on the ballot to give him a total of 15.
- Norm Cash and Boog Powell: Anyone else notice that these two seem to alternate in support from year to year? Cash will go up and Powell down one year, then switch the next.
- Willie Horton: He’s no longer a holdover, but joins that list of players we did holdover for at least a year but eventually dropped. Others on this dubious list include: Don Larsen, Roger Maris, Elston Howard, and Vada Pinson (I might be forgetting someone).

3) Voter Turnout: I’m getting a little disconcerted about the trend of declining voter turnout. I’m hopeful that a year infused with a number of strong new candidates will rekindle interest.

4) Positional Adjustments: We still have given absolutely no love to the defensive-oriented positions, namely catcher, second base, and shortstop. Of those three positions we've elected not a single player (I suspect that will change for catcher at least this year with Johnny Bench). I believe many of us have in the past criticized the BBWAA for being unable to properly adjust for position and recognize that at certain positions, massive offensive production just isn't the norm. Looking at our track record, it would appear that we too would deserve that same criticism as we seem to have plenty of love for sluggers but not much for players at non-slugging positions. Even the BBWAA got in Luis Aparicio by this point. We've already let players like Nellie Fox, Red Schoendienst, and Elston Howard slip by, and though I'm not saying they all deserve to have been electing, I am saying that we should keep in mind positional adjustments before we allow players like Joe Torre, Bill Freehan, Thurman Munson, Luis Aparicio, and Bill Mazeroski slip by. I think it's time that we start giving these positions some respect.

[Freakshow]

Frank Howard 10th

Shouldn't this say 11th year?

[DoubleX]

I voted for 9:

Luis Aparicio
Johnny Bench
Ken Boyer
Bill Freehan
Fergie Jenkins
Minnie Minoso
Gaylord Perry
Joe Torre
Carl Yastzresmki

After that, there are 7 players that I'm pretty close to voting for, but couldn't decide which one, if any, should get my last vote this time. Those 7 that must missed are:

Sal Bando
Bobby Bonds
Jim Bunning
Frank Howard
Jim Kaat
Sparky Lyle
Reggie Smith
Luis Tiant

[-Kyle-]

I voted

Carl Yazstremski
Johnny Bench
Bobby Bonds
Jimmy Wynn
Gaylord Perry
Reggie Smith
Minnie Minoso
Norm Cash
Joe Torre
Bill Freehan

I expect Yaz and Bench to run away with this one.

[leecemark]

--Very tough ballot. I voted the full 10 and had to drop 3 guys I was previously voting for; Tiant, Mazeroski and Munson (now only the 4th best catcher on the ballot behind Bench, Freehan and Torre). There are several other guys I am not really opposed to voting for, but they may never actually make my ballot; Howard, Oliva, Kaat, Bonds, Wynn, Lyle and Smith. Plus Cash who I have voted for before, but not for the last few ballots.

[DoubleX]

--Very tough ballot. I voted the full 10 and had to drop 3 guys I was previously voting for; Tiant, Mazeroski and Munson (now only the 4th best catcher on the ballot behind Bench, Freehan and Torre). There are several other guys I am not really opposed to voting for, but they may never actually make my ballot; Howard, Oliva, Kaat, Bonds, Wynn, Lyle and Smith. Plus Cash who I have voted for before, but not for the last few ballots.

I don't think you'll be alone in having to drop players you were previously voting for. With 4 or 5 strong candidates coming on the ballot this year, I really wonder if that will cause some of the bottom-feeders among the holdovers to drop off. Can guys like Bando, Cash, Flood, Lyle, Munson and Powell, survive this ballot? While I would like to see some of these player stay, I would also like to clean up the ballot a little as the list of holdovers has been ballooning somewhat in recent years.

[Erik Bedard]

Voted for:

Aparicio
Bench
Boyer
Bunning
Flood
Freehan
Jenkins
Minoso
Torre
Yastrzemski

I left Perry off partly because I wanted to vote for Boyer, and partly because he cheated.

[Windy City Fan]

Aparicio
Bando
Bench
Boyer
Freehan
Howard
Mazeroski
Minoso
Perry
Torre

Left off Oliva, Yaz, and Jenkins due to lack of room. Yaz and Jenkins were strategic casualities. Oliva got squeezed on the other end.

Given that this is Boyer's last year on the ballot, I'd really like to hear from those that choose not to support him. I've made this request before, but still have not recieved a single response.

[538280]

This was a tough ballot for me too and the first time I really had to drop some players who I really wanted to vote for due to the 10 man limit. I was forced to drop Bobby Bonds and Bill Freehan. I don't think this is the year for a holdover to get elected, though you never know. There are a ton of solid candidates on the board here IMO. I would have like to vote for newcomer Gene Tenace too and probably will in the future but he wasn't going to make my ballot this time. Tenace has the 2nd highest OPS+ for a primary catcher in the 20th century.

[DoubleX]

I would have like to vote for newcomer Gene Tenace too and probably will in the future but he wasn't going to make my ballot this time. Tenace has the 2nd highest OPS+ for a primary catcher in the 20th century.

Something tells me that you won't get another chance to vote for Tenace. I don't see him moving on, especially with the strong group this year.

[Westlake]

Given that this is Boyer's last year on the ballot, I'd really like to hear from those that choose not to support him. I've made this request before, but still have not recieved a single response.

Ken Boyer:

Hit .018 above league average, OBP .014 above league average, slugging .050 above league average. Had about 8 good seasons, about 3 great ones, and good defense. Wasnt a very good basestealer and didnt have much of an impact in the postseason to help him. Looks like the hall of very good to me.

[dgarza]

1. Carl Yastrzemski
2. Johnny Bench
3. Gaylord Perry
4. Tony Oliva
5. Fergie Jenkins
6. Minnie Minoso
7. Joe Torre
8. Jim Bunning
9. Ken Boyer
10. Luis Aparicio

[STLCards2]

Jim Bunning was burried under the names of Whitey Ford, Don Drysdale, Sandy Koufax, Juan Marichal and. Bob Gibson. Bunning also pitches at the same time as the primes of Wynn and Pierce, and ran into some really good early seasons from Perry, Jenkins, Niekro and Seaver.

I think Bunning is very underrated. I think a case can be made that he was the best pitcher in his league on three different occasions: '57, '60, and '61. I also think he was a top 4-5 pitcher in '61, '64, '65, and ,'66. As mentined before, this was during one of the richest periods for pitchers in baseball history. It is well past time for Bunning to be inducted.

[STLCards2]

In the categories of IP and ERA+, Bunning finished the following

1957: 1st and 3rd

1960: 5th and 2nd

1961: 3rd and 5th

1964: 4th and 7th

1965: 6th and 6th

1966: 4th and 2nd

1967: 1st and 2nd

He also finished 2nd in IP in '59, and '62.

There were 3-4 other seasons he was well above average too.

Oh yeah, he finished in the top 2 in strikeouts 8 times, leading the league 2 or 3 times.

Remember, this was playing in the same leagues as many other HOF pitchers while playing for less than fantastic teams. In fact not one of Bunning's teams ever made postseason. I wonder what he would have done with 118 run support? How is Bunning not a (BBF) Hall of Famer again?

[Appling]

Bench and Yaz for sure. Others are "iffy".

[leecemark]

--Somebody thought Bench was too iffy to vote for and three people have left off Yaz (through 20 ballots):noidea . WCF, I think leaving Fergie off for strategic reasons may backfire. He is on the election bubble for this year, although I expect he will get elected at some point in the not too distant future.

[STLCards2]

I can't honestly see how Perry esp. or Jenkins can be "iffy", but apparantly several others disagree. I see the trend of undervaluing pitchers continuing. I made a big deal about it early on when it took forever for Drysdale to get elected and Bunning was recieving vote totals under 40%, but to little avail. When Bunning gets less than 50% and Perry and Jenkins are "iffy", than there is nothing more I can do.

[leecemark]

--Perry and Jenkins should both be first ballot electees. Bunning isn't quite at that level, but he has been the best pitcher on the ballot more than once and probably ought to have made it by now, although whether he ever will is up in the air.

[KCGHOST]

Bench
Fergie
Minoso
Perry
Yaz

[John Shoemaker]

Although this is a strong field I cannot imagine leaving Johnny Bench and Carl Yastrzemski off anyone's ballot.

[Windy City Fan]

--Somebody thought Bench was too iffy to vote for and three people have left off Yaz (through 20 ballots):noidea . WCF, I think leaving Fergie off for strategic reasons may backfire. He is on the election bubble for this year, although I expect he will get elected at some point in the not too distant future.

Fergie (and Yaz) were tough calls for me. Obviously I feel both are strongly deserving of election, but I felt Perry and Bench were stronger candidates and I couldn't possibly leave them off my ballot. Boyer's in his last year and may get a bounce, though I doubt it will be enough. Minoso, Aparicio, and Torre all have been around 60% or better for a while, so I wanted to leave them on to help build or at least maintain momentum. Howard and Bando are guys I was scared might drop off with such a strong class, so I didn't feel safe cutting them. I could've cut Maz or Freehan for Jenkins I suppose, but I didn't. Heck I cut Oliva and now I'm worried he might not survive.

As you said, if he falls short this year, I'm sure Jenkins will eventually get in. Of the four rookies, he's probably the weakest one (which isn't as much a slam on Jenkins as it is a compliment to Yaz, Bench, and Perry).

[Windy City Fan]

Ken Boyer:

Hit .018 above league average, OBP .014 above league average, slugging .050 above league average. Had about 8 good seasons, about 3 great ones, and good defense. Wasnt a very good basestealer and didnt have much of an impact in the postseason to help him. Looks like the hall of very good to me.

What Boyer does have going for him is he has a VERY strong case for being a top ten third baseman ever. If not, definately top 15. If you believe there is any kind of equal distribution of talent across positions, that's a strong argument for induction.

His peak is pretty nice. WARP3 gives him 5 seasons at 10.0 or higher. That's only one less than Ron Santo. That's 5 more than RL HOFers Pie Traynor, George Kell, and Jimmy Collins. 4 more than Frank Baker. 2 more than Brooks Robinson. And 1 more than even George Brett.

His postseason record is such a small sample size, its really not worth mentioning. But I will say he was the best player on '64 Cards that won the penant (and the second place '63 team of a year ago). Clearly he could lead a team to the promise land if he had enough talent around him.

[DoubleX]

vtbub, I have to ask - how come the vote for Tenace but not Freehan, Torre, or Munson? I don't think Tenace is necessarily a bad vote, but I have a hard time viewing him as any better than the 5th best catcher on this ballot.

[-Kyle-]

Crap...I forgot Jenkins.

[538280]

vtbub, I have to ask - how come the vote for Tenace but not Freehan, Torre, or Munson? I don't think Tenace is necessarily a bad vote, but I have a hard time viewing him as any better than the 5th best catcher on this ballot.

I can't speak for vtbub, but I can see Tenace ahead of Freehan and Munson. Freehan and Munson were both very good defensive catchers and much superior in that regard to Tenace but Tenace but also was clearly better in the more important area of hitting. Tenace had a 135 OPS+ compared to Freehan's 112 and Munson's 116. BP has Tenace at 318 runs above average, Freehan at 133, and Munson at 154, that's a pretty large difference. Considering Tenace was a 1Bman for much of his career as well as a catcher, I can see how Munson and Freehan can make that up but I could also see how you could think they could not. I agree Torre should definitely be ahead of Tenace though. Perhaps the rationale for voting for Tenace, and I will feel bad that I didn't do this if he doesn't make it, is that you think you will vote for him in the future and you want him to make the 5% cut.

[The Dude]

Definatley the hardest election for me. Yaz and Bench are to me far superior than anyone else on the ballot. Perry and Fergie are a little above Bunning to me, but since Perry and hopefully Fergie get in this year, I can go back to voteing for Bunning next year.

Here's my old post for Smith from a few seasons ago.


Reggie Smith. He's an interesting case that's for sure. Well, lets start off simple with Smith and just put some stats out there. Batted .300 seven times, 5 full seasons, 1 very close season, and another half season. Finished top 10 in HR's 5 times, RBI's 4 times. Led the league in OPS+ in 1977, and was 2nd in 1978. Hows this for you: of the Eight guys who led the NL in OPS+ in the 1970's, only Dave Parker and Reggie Smith aren't in the Hall of Fame.

Those are only stats though. I think what we need to look at is the impact of Reggie Smith on his team. Smith played on one losing team through his career. I mean sure, you could point to a person who may have outperformed him on the team, but Reggie Smith always gave people a run for their money.

Well let's take for example the 1977 Pennant Winning Dodgers. He was first in HR, and 2nd in RBI and AVG. However, he beat Steve Garvey in OPS+ by 24 Points. And in total, Smith was probably the best player on the 1971 and 1973 Red Sox. They might not have won the Division or a Pennant, but they were stuck behind arguably the best Dynasty of all time. So as you might be able to tell, I'm heading towards the Keltner list. Let's run him through it quick.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
I'm doubting he was.

2.Was he the best player on his team?
In 1971 and 1973, he was the best player on the Red Sox. He was the 2nd best player on the team in 1973. He was the best player on the 1974 Cardinals. He was either the best or the 2nd best player on the Pennant winning 1977 and 1978 Dodgers

On all 3 teams he played with some good players. For the red Sox, he was competing against Yaz and Fisk. For the Cards, Ted Simmons and Joe Torre, and hall of Famer Lou Brock. On the Dodgers he had to fend off Steve Garvey, Ron Cey, Dusty Baker, and Steve Yeager.

3.Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
As a Center Fielder in the American League, I would say Smith was the best in the AL from 1969-1971 and 1973. Had he not been moved to RF in 1972, he would have been the best CF in the American League in 1972.

Smith was also the best CF in the Majors from in 1970 and 1971. In 1973, he just wasn't as good as Cesar Cedeno was, and Jimmy Wynn had a fabulous season in 1969.

As a right Fielder, Smith was only the best in his league in 1977, ironically the same year that the Dodgers won the pennant. I would also say he was the best in the league. I would also say that 1977 was Smith's greatest year.

So to Summarize: Best at his position in his league 5 times, and in the Majors 2 times.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Yes. Arguably his two best seasons were the same two seasons the Dodgers went to the world series.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

He played 3 half seasons after the 1978 world series. He had OPS+ of 125, 153, and 135.

6.Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
No. I would say he's the 2nd or 3rd best CF not in the HoF.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

To be blunt, no. But we must look deeper. 5 of his top 10 most similar players (Shawn Green, Bobby Bonilla, Paul O'Niell, Ellis Burks, and Moises Alou) played in the inflated 90's. Dick Allen is already a HOF by our standards and is a contemporary of Smith. Bob Johnson is just under the line to some people, and if you believe that the league quality has improved over time, then it would seem that one would support Smith's induction then. Cy Williams was a deadballer who adjusted to the live ball well mid-career. For big hall people, he might be in. Then there's Del Ennis. I have no idea what to say about Ennis. HE was a good player for a period of time, and that's about it.

8.Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
No. He falls short on inks and HOF tests. However, he has more gray ink than CF Hack Wilson and RF Harry Hooper. Also, it should be noted that the HoF hasn't dealt with problem of over-competitiveness in the 1970's and 1980's.

9.Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
I wouldn't say yes. I would say that his statistics show all we need to know about him. We've already been shown that he was the best CF in the Majors for part of his career. He was consistently batting .300 or above, hit at least 20 HR's a year, ranked in the top 10 in RBI's a lot.

What we have to understand is that the league was so good, that doing this was like hitting 35 HR's and being in the top 3 in RBI's in the 1920's or 1930's. And a number of players like that are in the HoF.

One might point out that Smith had a number of good years for the Red Sox. Automatically people point out the green monster as a reason for their greatness. First, Smith was a switch hitter, and probably spent most of his time hitting left handed, and if he used the wall as an advantage as a lefty, that should add points to him for being able to go the other way with the ball so much. Second, as I've already said, Smith's two best years were probably 1977 and 1978, as a RF in Chavez Ravine!

10.Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?
No. I would put Al Oliver in front of him. Jimmy Wynn is either right there with him, ahead of him, or behind him.

11.How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
MVP is 30 WS, right? He had 29 two times, just missing. He never won an MVP award in real life. He was not very close in 1977 or 1978.

12.How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?
He had 10 All-Star seasons if going by WS. He did in 7 all-star games. I believe that no, most other players with 7 aren't in the hall of fame.

13.If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
I believe that it's already proven.

14.What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
No major impact that I know of. He did go and play in Japan when he was healthy enough and offered a contract from the Giants to be a part time player.

15.Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

I would say no. He went to Japan for more money, when it would seem to me one would want to play in the best league. He also was involved in an incident with a Giants fan that was started when the Giants fan hit him him with a batting helmet.


So what does this all say? I don't know. I feel that Smith as the best at his position for a peak amount of time and being the MVP on a 2-time pennant winning team is worth a lot. I'd like to know how many people in that situation aren't in the HoF.

[John Shoemaker]

In my opinion Reggie Smith should be getting far more voting support than he is getting.

[DoubleX]

I can't speak for vtbub, but I can see Tenace ahead of Freehan and Munson. Freehan and Munson were both very good defensive catchers and much superior in that regard to Tenace but Tenace but also was clearly better in the more important area of hitting. Tenace had a 135 OPS+ compared to Freehan's 112 and Munson's 116. BP has Tenace at 318 runs above average, Freehan at 133, and Munson at 154, that's a pretty large difference. Considering Tenace was a 1Bman for much of his career as well as a catcher, I can see how Munson and Freehan can make that up but I could also see how you could think they could not. I agree Torre should definitely be ahead of Tenace though. Perhaps the rationale for voting for Tenace, and I will feel bad that I didn't do this if he doesn't make it, is that you think you will vote for him in the future and you want him to make the 5% cut.

Tenace played 1B almost much as he caught. Freehan caught almost twice as many game as Tenace, and Munson almost 400 games more, despite the early death. Those were catchers in every sense of the word. Tenace was a full time player for what? 7 or 8 seasons maybe. And a full time catcher for like 3 or 4? That's a pretty far cry from having a Hall of Fame career as a catcher, or at any position.

[538280]

Tenace played 1B almost much as he caught. Freehan caught almost twice as many game as Tenace, and Munson almost 400 games more, despite the early death. Those were catchers in every sense of the word. Tenace was a full time player for what? 7 or 8 seasons maybe. And a full time catcher for like 3 or 4? That's a pretty far cry from having a Hall of Fame career as a catcher, or at any position.

I agree-and I would probably put Freehan ahead of Tenace for that reason. I'm not so sure about Munson though. Munson was a worse hitter than Tenace by about 164 runs versus average over his career. Munson was a better catcher than Tenace, and he played almost 400 more games there, you're right, but can that make up for 164 runs of offense? I'm not sure. Munson at C according to BP's fielding metrics averaged 5 runs better per 100 games than Tenace (107 Rate compared to 102). That means through Munson's 1278 games caught he is 71.62 runs ahead of Tenace. That's just through his playing catcher defense and takes into account the games differential. Tenace also has 625 games played at first where he contributed at least something defensively to close that 71 run gap. I don't think the defensive differential between them can make up for the offensive differential which is approximately 150 runs.

But then again maybe for the Hall of Fame we should choose Munson first. Munson in his time was regarded as one of the best players in the baseball, and as the heart and soul of a great Yankee team (he was the captain). Tenace was thought of as a role player on the great A's teams. Munson won an MVP which Tenace never even came close to. Deserved or not, it is clear that Munson has the FAME category on Tenace easily, and this should probably count for something. So perhaps I'll reconsider whether I vote for Munson over Tenace, but I would probably call Tenace the better player. I made this post about Tenace in the past too:

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=713024&postcount=370

[DoubleX]

But then again maybe for the Hall of Fame we should choose Munson first. Munson in his time was regarded as one of the best players in the baseball, and as the heart and soul of a great Yankee team (he was the captain). Tenace was thought of as a role player on the great A's teams. Munson won an MVP which Tenace never even came close to. Deserved or not, it is clear that Munson has the FAME category on Tenace easily, and this should probably count for something. So perhaps I'll reconsider whether I vote for Munson over Tenace, but I would probably call Tenace the better player. I made this post about Tenace in the past too:

I think the subjective Fame factor, tips fairly heavily in Munson's favor, though Tenace did have an underrated career. Nevertheless, I'm not really eager to vote for either. Still, when forming a team, I think I'd rather have Munson as my catcher than Tenace.

[vtbub]

vtbub, I have to ask - how come the vote for Tenace but not Freehan, Torre, or Munson? I don't think Tenace is necessarily a bad vote, but I have a hard time viewing him as any better than the 5th best catcher on this ballot.

Ran out of room and wanted to make sure Tenace remained.

While I haven't championed Torre too much, this is the first year I hadn't voted for Munson or Freehan.

This ballot is stacked.

[Colorado Express]

I filled my ballot this year and even had to leave off one player (Wills).
Aparicio
Bench
Howard
Jenkins
Minoso
Munson
Oliva
Perry
Torre
Yastrzemski

[Erik Bedard]

Right now, it appears that we may elect an amazing five candidates, with Minoso at 75.76.

[DoubleX]

Right now, it appears that we may elect an amazing five candidates, with Minoso at 75.76.

That would be nice, but I wouldn't count on Minoso, or even Jenkins and Perry holding on just yet. Often, when we've had higher turnouts (which we seem to be on the way this year), these kind of players seem to decline steadily as the voting goes on. By these kind, I mean someone like Minoso who unfortunately needs a good argument to convince many people, and pitchers, whom we haven't been particularly kind to.

[2Chance]

Aparicio
Bench
Bunning
Freehan
Jenkins
Maz
Minoso
Perry
Torre
Yaz

Happy to see most of the guys I left off are not in danger.

[Brooklyn]

Bench
Perry
Jenkins
Yaz

This is my largest ballot since the opening election. This is a very strong class

[DoubleX]

Just a couple of days left now, and after a flurry of votes early on, we've tapered off. We need just three more votes in the next two days to match last year's total of 42, so keep voting people! I would have thought that with so many strong new candidates this year, that interest would have be rekindled.

Minoso has made some encouraging progress, but it won't look like he'll quite get there this year. However, if he can stay over 70%, I don't think we've had a player over 70% for an election that we did not eventually elect (Bunning has come within decimals of 70%, but hasn't been at or over it).

Looking ahead to next year...We have Joe Morgan and Jim Palmer at the head of the class. There's a pretty steep drop after that with Ken Singleton seemingly being the best of the rest.

[jalbright]

Don't worry about the drop-off in voters. Over 40 voters consistently showing up is great participation, and I'd guess that most of the 20 voters "lost" a) didn't add a great deal to the conversation and/or b) weren't the deepest thinkers on the topic, thereby leading to more questionable votes. If that's true, what have you lost but raw numbers of votes?

Jim Albright

[John Shoemaker]

I think Greg Luzinski is also worthy of consideration in this next election.

[DoubleX]

I think Greg Luzinski is also worthy of consideration in this next election.

Are you going to vote for Luzinski?

[John Shoemaker]

Are you going to vote for Luzinski?

Yes I plan to vote for him.

[DoubleX]

Yes I plan to vote for him.

That's just too much now. Are there any middle infielders, catchers, or pitchers you would put in the Hall of Fame? I can't believe you would call Greg Luzinski a Hall of Famer before:

Luis Aparicio
Sal Bando
Ken Boyer
Jim Bunning
Bert Campaneris
Bill Freehan
Catfish Hunter
Fergie Jenkins
Jim Kaat
Sparky Lyle
Minnie Minoso
Thurman Munson
Bobby Murcer
Tony Oliva
Gaylord Perry
Gene Tenace
Luis Tiant
Joe Torre
Maury Wills
Jimmy Wynn

And those are just the people in this election that you didn't vote for that I feel would be much better Hall of Fame selections than Luzinski. But to pick Luzinski over guys like Torre, Minoso, Perry, Jenkins, Aparicio, and so on, is just too much for me. Could you please explain you feel that middle infielders, catchers, and pitchers are not worthy of the Hall of Fame, and that only lumbering and one dimensional corner OFers and 1Bman are more deserving? And what exactly does Greg Luzinski in particular have going for him? He was a pretty good hitter for a few years, but that's a far cry from being a Hall of Famer, IMO.

[538280]

John, I don't mean to pile on, but let's take a look at Greg Luzinski against Joe Torre. You haven't been voting for Torre but you say you will vote for Luzinski. Let's start with something simple: Luzinski had a career OPS+ of 130, Torre of 129. They're essentially the same hitter based on career rates. But it's not that simple: Torre put up those rates over a career that was 388 games longer. It's more impressive to maintain a rate over a longer period of time. Luzinski played 1821 games over his career, through roughly the same amount of games Torre's OPS+ was 132. So even if you're gonig to claim a tiny, tiny hitting advantage based on career rates, that doesn't even hold up when you look at the time it took the players to put that up. Torre also did it for longer, so he has more career value.

So they're essentially of the same value in the batter's box\, except Torre did it for longer and has more career value Outside of hitting, though, they're not even close. Torre was a catcher for 41% of his defensive games and a 3bman for 23% of his games. That's 64% of his games at key defensive positions. While Torre wasn't great at either of those positions, he was at least good enough that managers trusted to put him there, he was competant. Luzinski was a corner OF and bordering on not competant. He was known as one of the worst outfielders in his day and one of the worst long time OFers of all time. Torre has a significant defensive edge on Luzinski and he played more important defensive positions.

Torre also had one awesome season in 1971. He won the 1971 MVP. He had a 171 OPS+ that year which was 14 ponits higher than Luzinski's career high (157). He had 41 Win Shares that season which is at the level that Bill James defines as a "historic" season (anything over 41 WS). Luzinski's career high was 30 WS. So, let's recap. Luzinski and Torre are of essentially the exact same value as hitters. Torre was a MUCH better fielder though and played much more important defensive positons. Torre lasted longer. Torre had a seaosn in his career which is far superior than any season in Luzinski's career. You're making a big mistake if you vote for Luzinski and not Torre, and I think just about everyone will agree with me.

[John Shoemaker]

That's just too much now. Are there any middle infielders, catchers, or pitchers you would put in the Hall of Fame? I can't believe you would call Greg Luzinski a Hall of Famer before:

Luis Aparicio
Sal Bando
Ken Boyer
Jim Bunning
Bert Campaneris
Bill Freehan
Catfish Hunter
Fergie Jenkins
Jim Kaat
Sparky Lyle
Minnie Minoso
Thurman Munson
Bobby Murcer
Tony Oliva
Gaylord Perry
Gene Tenace
Luis Tiant
Joe Torre
Maury Wills
Jimmy Wynn

And those are just the people in this election that you didn't vote for that I feel would be much better Hall of Fame selections than Luzinski. But to pick Luzinski over guys like Torre, Minoso, Perry, Jenkins, Aparicio, and so on, is just too much for me. Could you please explain you feel that middle infielders, catchers, and pitchers are not worthy of the Hall of Fame, and that only lumbering and one dimensional corner OFers and 1Bman are more deserving? And what exactly does Greg Luzinski in particular have going for him? He was a pretty good hitter for a few years, but that's a far cry from being a Hall of Famer, IMO.

Interesting that you would mention catchers - I voted for Johnny Bench this
year whom I consider the greatest catcher ever and one of the greatest players. Maybe you should investigate why 2 people this year wouldn't vote for him. To me that is rediculous - they must never have seen him play. Gary Carter and Carlton Fisk are 2 other catchers I will enthusiastically vote for when they come up.

[John Shoemaker]

I also consider Lance Parrish a very underrated catcher and I will vote for him when he comes up for election.

[DoubleX]

This election is over, and for the second time, we have elected four players in a year (the first time was our first year, 1979):

Johnny Bench: 95.12%
Fergie Jenkins: 82.93%
Gaylord Perry: 80.49%
Carl Yastrzremski: 92.68%

Personally, I find it interesting that Jenkins received more votes than Perry. I guess some people really held Perry's cheating against him?

And despite the strong incoming class, we had Luis Aparicio and Minnie Minoso both getting over 70%. Thus far, we have eventually elected every player that has at one point reached at least 70%.

Jim Kaat and Gene Tenace will be joining our holdovers. I find Tenace's carrying over somewhat interesting, especially because Thurman Munson failed to reach 5% this year after several years on the ballot. Tenace has a fine OPS+, but a pretty short career and he spent almost as much time playing 1B as he did catching. Given the choice, I think I'd rather have Munson catching for me. So I'm scratching my head a little at this one.

Munson is not the only holdover who reached 5% and will be dropped from the ballot. He has company in Sparky Lyle and Maury Wills (Bert Campaneris also came just short, but he was a newcomer). Interestingly, the majority of the players we've dropped that received at least 5% in at least one election, were players most associated with the Yankees - Munson, Lyle, Don Larsen, Roger Maris, and Elston Howard. I believe the only other three are Wills, Willie Horton, and Vada Pinson.

Finally, we say goodbye to Ken Boyer who gave it a good 15 year run on the ballot.

I should have 1990 going tomorrow.

[Westlake]

Interesting that you would mention catchers - I voted for Johnny Bench this
year whom I consider the greatest catcher ever and one of the greatest players. Maybe you should investigate why 2 people this year wouldn't vote for him. To me that is rediculous - they must never have seen him play. Gary Carter and Carlton Fisk are 2 other catchers I will enthusiastically vote for when they come up.

Why didn't you answer the question? Im pretty interested in your answer to why Luzinski is any better than some of those guys mentioned.

[John Shoemaker]

Why didn't you answer the question? Im pretty interested in your answer to why Luzinski is any better than some of those guys mentioned.

Like I wrote before I go more by what I saw in person than just statistics. Greg Luzinski and Mike Schmidt we the heart of the many Phildaelphia games I saw over the years and though Schmidt was obviously the better player they were both dominent players that carried the Phillies.

Some of the other guys mentioned are very good players too and I will take another look at them.

But maybe just watching players play isn't good enough because I see that in this election 2 people didn't vote for Johnny Bench - they must have seen 10 players better than Bench. I'd like to see that list of players because Bench looked very good to me all the times I saw him.

And speaking of lists in our 1979 election someone didn't vote for Willie Mays -I'd like to see the list of 10 players he found better than Willie. I never saw even 1 player that ever looked better than Willie Mays - ever!

[DoubleX]

I think a couple of plausible explanations of why someone may not have voted for Bench could be 1) That the voter was simply careless and didn't see Bench on the ballot or forgot to vote for Bench or selected the wrong player (such as accidentally voting for Bobby Bonds instead); or 2) Perhaps the voter decided that he/she saw so many viable candidates, that he/she voted strategically by not voting for the shoe-in Bench and voting for a player who might be in jeopardy of being dropped or might need extra support to get voted in.

On the otherhand, and this is just my opinion, but I can't really see much of a reason to vote for someone like Greg Luzinski. I suppose I could if the voter believed in a very large Hall of Famer, but given many of the players that you're not voting for, I can't really understand the vote for Luzinski.

[Westlake]

Like I wrote before I go more by what I saw in person than just statistics. Greg Luzinski and Mike Schmidt we the heart of the many Phildaelphia games I saw over the years and though Schmidt was obviously the better player they were both dominent players that carried the Phillies.

Some of the other guys mentioned are very good players too and I will take another look at them.

But maybe just watching players play isn't good enough because I see that in this election 2 people didn't vote for Johnny Bench - they must have seen 10 players better than Bench. I'd like to see that list of players because Bench looked very good to me all the times I saw him.

And speaking of lists in our 1979 election someone didn't vote for Willie Mays -I'd like to see the list of 10 players he found better than Willie. I never saw even 1 player that ever looked better than Willie Mays - ever!

What about the players you didn't see very much? What do you do about them?

[John Shoemaker]

What about the players you didn't see very much? What do you do about them?

In covering games around the country for the Associated Press for the last 70 years I have seen almost all the great players - but I must have missed the 10 players that were better than Willie Mays - where were they?

[Westlake]

In covering games around the country for the Associated Press for the last 70 years I have seen almost all the great players - but I must have missed the 10 players that were better than Willie Mays - where were they?

Why are you asking me? I voted for Mays.

Again.. like XX said, someone probably missed his name or did it strategically because they knew he would make it anyway.

[DoubleX]

In covering games around the country for the Associated Press for the last 70 years I have seen almost all the great players - but I must have missed the 10 players that were better than Willie Mays - where were they?

You seem overly ennamored with homeruns, as you seem to vote for anyone with more than 300 homeruns, even if they were poor players in just about every other aspect of the game.

You can't expect middle infielders or even catchers, especially from before the past decade, to have that kind of power. They have a totally different skillset that should be appreciated.

[dgarza]

You seem overly ennamored with homeruns, as you seem to vote for anyone with more than 300 homeruns,



...and no one with less.

You don't have watch any games to check off a list of counting stats.

[538280]

John, do you plan to vote for Joe Morgan next election?