What does Scott Rolen need to do?

[STLCards2]

Thanks to a solid comeback season after the wasted 2005 season, Rolen appears to have retained his status as at least a top 4-5 3rd baseman in a very deep position. I don't feel Rolen and his outstanding fielding and well-above average hitting relative to his position are hall worthy at this point, but he is getting close. What more does he need to do to make it? Will just avoiding strange collisions and staying healthy do it ? One more 2004 type season? Two or three more 2006 type seasons? Or do you feel he isn't close and will never make it?

[SamtheBravesFan]

I'd guess he has to do about as much as Chipper Jones does, though I will say Rolen's fielding makes him better overall.

[STLCards2]

I'd guess he has to do about as much as Chipper Jones does, though I will say Rolen's fielding makes him better overall.

Chipper's OPS+ is about 12-13 points higher than Rolen's and he has more longevity at this point. Rolen is obviously the far superior defensive player. Good enough to overtake Jones' edge offensively? Maybe. I would probably have Chipper slightly ahead at this point, but Rolen (if he stays healthy) might move past him in a few years.

In fact, looking at Rolen's career OPS+, it is higher than the following: Santo, Traynor, Robinson, Cey, Ventura, Williams, Bando, Nettles, Collins, Evans, and Boyer. I know he hasn't reached his decline phase yet, but throw in defense that is equal to or better than any of these guys, and his Hall candadacy might not be as far away as I first thought.

[Edgartohof]

As long as Chipper can stay healthy I don't see Rolen catching him, but he doesn't really need to. Rolen still has a 129 OPS+, and plays 3B very well.

He has a decent BA, can take a few walks, and has decent power for his position (not in Schmidt/A-Rod/Jones territory, but decent enough). And he also has 7 GG's to his name, with a few more likely on their way.

So if he can stay somewhat healthy, for 5 years and then a couple for a slight decline, he has a chance, but even that's not assured (though a pretty good chance).

[KCGHOST]

To me Rolen needs four more seasons like the one he just had. The real problem for him is that defense is a big part of his value, but it is very hard for players to get assists in the HoF balloting for their defensive skills by the BBWAA. A few have (Robinson, Smith, Aparicio, etc), but most don't.

To me Rolen and Jones are a dead push, but the BBWAA and most fans won't see it that way.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Chipper Jones is ahead of Scott Rolen in the HOF race at this point. He'd almost definitely go into the HOF if he retired today, or if he had a freak injury that ended his career.

Those statements are less true about Rolen, but he's certainly at a place where that is possible. I've never particularly liked Rolen, but I realize, in retrospect, that I might have been too hard on him. Rolen's got a lot of Gold Gloves, including one last year, and those GGs in conjunction with his production per 162 games might just put him in the HOF right now.

If Rolen has the types of seasons that one would project by past production, he'd be a sure-fire first ballot HOFer. If Rolen goes into early decline this year, due to his back problems, which are chronic, then all bets are off.

The similarity scores don't show it, due to differences in eras, but Rolen is really quite similar to Ron Santo. He'll have a higher BA, due to era, but about the same number of HRs when Rolen turns 34, if he doesn't fade early. Here's a question: If Rolen fades, to where he retires at age 35 due to a bad back, he won't have THAT many more HRs than Santo, if he had more at all. And that's a logical outcome, if Rolen's back continues to give him grief.

What happens then? More specifically, why would Rolen go in then, if Santo is still out? Putting Rolen in while keeping Santo out, if both are in the 340-350 range in HRs would be a case of (A) not adjusting for era and (B) giving a LOT of weight to Rolen's Gold Gloves (although Santo has 5 GGs himself). It would be hard to justify Rolen's selection under those circumstances, in light of Santo remaining on the outside looking in.

[STLCards2]

Chipper Jones is ahead of Scott Rolen in the HOF race at this point. He'd almost definitely go into the HOF if he retired today, or if he had a freak injury that ended his career.

Those statements are less true about Rolen, but he's certainly at a place where that is possible. I've never particularly liked Rolen, but I realize, in retrospect, that I might have been too hard on him. Rolen's got a lot of Gold Gloves, including one last year, and those GGs in conjunction with his production per 162 games might just put him in the HOF right now.

If Rolen has the types of seasons that one would project by past production, he'd be a sure-fire first ballot HOFer. If Rolen goes into early decline this year, due to his back problems, which are chronic, then all bets are off.

The similarity scores don't show it, due to differences in eras, but Rolen is really quite similar to Ron Santo. He'll have a higher BA, due to era, but about the same number of HRs when Rolen turns 34, if he doesn't fade early. Here's a question: If Rolen fades, to where he retires at age 35 due to a bad back, he won't have THAT many more HRs than Santo, if he had more at all. And that's a logical outcome, if Rolen's back continues to give him grief.

What happens then? More specifically, why would Rolen go in then, if Santo is still out? Putting Rolen in while keeping Santo out, if both are in the 340-350 range in HRs would be a case of (A) not adjusting for era and (B) giving a LOT of weight to Rolen's Gold Gloves (although Santo has 5 GGs himself). It would be hard to justify Rolen's selection under those circumstances, in light of Santo remaining on the outside looking in.

If Rolen is deserving, I don't think keeping him out because Santo is not in is fair. Why repeat the same mistake? If Rolen is good enough, elect him. If he isn't, than don't. Best case scenario is they both go in, but no telling for sure if Santo wil ever take his rightful place in Cooperstown.

[ElHalo]

Chipper Jones is ahead of Scott Rolen in the HOF race at this point. He'd almost definitely go into the HOF if he retired today, or if he had a freak injury that ended his career.

You really think so? The numbers are there, but the guy has basically zero name recognition... he's about as well known as Pat Borders. I definitely see him getting the Brian Giles treatment as far as ignoring good play goes.

[StanTheMan]

If Rolen gets to 10 Gold Gloves (needs just 3 more) he will likely be a HOF'er in my (admittedly biased) view.

At 253 Home Runs going into 2007, 375 is not out of the question. 400, although probably beyond him, would make him a lock with the gold gloves.

His last three full season HR totals are 22, 34 and 28. A few more 25's and few 20's and you are at 350-375.

We are also talking about a Rookie of the Year, and a World Champion. Playing on a team which makes the playoffs just about every season for a long stretch also helps. This is part of Santo's problem. Electing him to the HOF would be, what 4 guys from a team who never won a pennant? On some admittedly basic level, some HOF voters have to have a issue with that.....

Bottom line is Rolen might have lots of little things (good team, ROY, potential to have 600 career doubles, the best defensive 3B of his generation, etc) which combined, will push him over the top and result in inshrinement.

Health is obviously a big part of things. In the past, Rolen has had seasons of 100, 112, 55, and 56 games.

If he had played full seasons in each of those, or close to it, Chipper Jones would be far in his rear view mirror....

[tearforamariner]

Chipper's OPS+ is about 12-13 points higher than Rolen's and he has more longevity at this point. Rolen is obviously the far superior defensive player. Good enough to overtake Jones' edge offensively? Maybe. I would probably have Chipper slightly ahead at this point, but Rolen (if he stays healthy) might move past him in a few years.

In fact, looking at Rolen's career OPS+, it is higher than the following: Santo, Traynor, Robinson, Cey, Ventura, Williams, Bando, Nettles, Collins, Evans, and Boyer. I know he hasn't reached his decline phase yet, but throw in defense that is equal to or better than any of these guys, and his Hall candadacy might not be as far away as I first thought.

Chipper's offensive edge isn't that high. Understand this about OPS+: It's job is to show you how good a player is compared to the league average hitter. Chipper is 1.4 times better than the average hitter, Rolen is 1.3 times better. When thought of in this context, Jones' offensive edge isn't much at all.

I think Rolen's defense, at the very least, brings him even with Chipper.

[jalbright]

Chipper's offensive edge isn't that high. Understand this about OPS+: It's job is to show you how good a player is compared to the league average hitter. Chipper is 1.4 times better than the average hitter, Rolen is 1.3 times better. When thought of in this context, Jones' offensive edge isn't much at all.

I think Rolen's defense, at the very least, brings him even with Chipper.

There's two reasons that currently I'd put Chipper ahead of Rolen in HOF terms. One, Chipper has two more seasons in (13 to 11). Two, he's been more durable (1761 games to 1393, such that even if Rolen played 162 each of the next two years [and he's only played 160 once], he'd still have 34 less games). I like Rolen, but he needs to stay healthy enough to keep producing both with the bat and the glove. I wish him well, but I'm not at all convinced he'll be durable enough to make it.

Jim Albright

[digglahhh]

You know what Rolen's problem is? Ask around if people think that the best defensive 3B of his generation who holds a 130 OPS+ should make the HOF. You'd get a pretty conclusive yes as your consensus. Now, ask if Scott Rolen is a HOFer, the responses probably swing the other way...

To introduce an admittedly subjective point into this discussion, as a Met fan, I had both of them in my division for a long time, you basically "feared" Chipper. You did not fear Rolen.

[StanTheMan]

You know what Rolen's problem is? Ask around if people think that the best defensive 3B of his generation who holds a 130 OPS+ should make the HOF. You'd get a pretty conclusive yes as your consensus. Now, ask if Scott Rolen is a HOFer, the responses probably swing the other way...

To introduce an admittedly subjective point into this discussion, as a Met fan, I had both of them in my division for a long time, you basically "feared" Chipper. You did not fear Rolen.

The first point..... Rolen has not had a decline phase yet, so will his 130+ OPS hold up? Probably not.

As for the second.... you are not allowed in Cooperstown 5 years after Rolen's retirement!!

[STLCards2]

The first point..... Rolen has not had a decline phase yet, so will his 130+ OPS hold up? Probably not.

As for the second.... you are not allowed in Cooperstown 5 years after Rolen's retirement!!

I don't think he was underminding Rolen's deservedness, just the perception thereof. Hopefully Rolen won't fall in that Santo area, but I can see it happening.

[StanTheMan]

I don't think he was underminding Rolen's deservedness, just the perception thereof. Hopefully Rolen won't fall in that Santo area, but I can see it happening.


Agreed.... but when you are talking about the best this and best that of a generation with an OPS+ of X, Y or Z.... you are usually talking about a retired player, who's stats aren't changing one bit as he sits on his rocking chair.

Rolen's numbers will of course change, and history says they will decline slightly... meaning his initial point of Rolen NOT being considered a HOF'er right now may not change unless Rolen does something extraordinary (like get to 10 GG's, 600+ doubles, 400 HR's, win another WS or two, etc...)

[ChrisLDuncan]

I'd vote for him for the HoF...he has a cannon for an arm, and he's not a slouch at the dish.

[dl4060]

I think he has it tough being a third baseman. Third base is a bit of a between position, it is not purely offensive, like first, but not as defensive as short. If Rolen were a shortstop he would be close to a sure thing, as a first baseman he would not have a chance, barring a surge. He is a terrific third baseman, and very close to hall of fame level. If he ages well he will deserve induction, whether or not he gets it is a different story.

Chipper is an interesting contrast. A big enough star with the bat to have a shot as a first baseman, but not nearly the third baseman Rolen is. Third is really tough to figure. As a shortstop Derek Jeter will go in quite easily, if he was a first baseman with the same numbers he would be outside. Third lurks somewhere between first and short.

I believe third base has fewer HOFers than any other position. Not sure if that is true or not, but it would not surprise me.

[StanTheMan]

I believe third base has fewer HOFers than any other position. Not sure if that is true or not, but it would not surprise me.

That is correct... unless you consider closer/relievers separate from all other pitchers.

[plask_stirlac]

We are also talking about a Rookie of the Year, and a World Champion. Playing on a team which makes the playoffs just about every season for a long stretch also helps. This is part of Santo's problem. Electing him to the HOF would be, what 4 guys from a team who never won a pennant? On some admittedly basic level, some HOF voters have to have a issue with that.....


I hope not... pennants don't go to the best collection of position players, they need pitching and there's not much to say about 60s Cubs arms. Take away Carpenter from Pujols-Rolen-Edmonds, that doesn't make them worse.

The HoF can celebrate guys who played on successful teams and the team success, but if a guy's good enough he should get in. They haven't elected two-time champion team player Bert Blyleven, nor Santo. Fickle.

[StanTheMan]

I hope not... pennants don't go to the best collection of position players, they need pitching and there's not much to say about 60s Cubs arms. Take away Carpenter from Pujols-Rolen-Edmonds, that doesn't make them worse.

No, but it takes the ring off their finger, and of course makes the team (and subsequently Rolen/Pujols/Jimmy) FAR, FAR less successful.

How many players in the HOF played in the World Series? I bet it's a pretty high percentage. A bit of a non-statistic, perhaps (It is not called the Hall of Third Place Finishers after all, or the Hall of Cubs LOL) but I don't necessarily think that being on a succesfull team is COMPLETELY viewed as an independent part of being HOF worthy, but rather more than occassionally viewed as an often inevitable, and natural outcome realted to being a good player/good teammate/succesful, achieving athlete.

[brett]

Chipper's offensive edge isn't that high. Understand this about OPS+: It's job is to show you how good a player is compared to the league average hitter. Chipper is 1.4 times better than the average hitter, Rolen is 1.3 times better. When thought of in this context, Jones' offensive edge isn't much at all.

I think Rolen's defense, at the very least, brings him even with Chipper.

A 142 OPS+ puts a guy in almost exclusively hall of fame territory. Longevity is the issue though, and I think Rolen will have to come real close to 400 home runs.

There's only about 4 .300/.400/.500 guys with 7000 plate appearances not in the hall and none with 9000 which he could get to.

[Fuzzy Bear]

What to make of Scott Rolen?

Rolen has a .637 OWP, even after two poor years at the plate in a row. Brooks Robinson's career OWP is .523; he really is in the HOF solely for his defense (albeit AWESOME defense).

Honestly, where does Rolen rank vs. Brooks Robinson? Both were the premier defensive third basemen of their eras. Robinson was more dominant, but Rolen was much the better hitter, even if we eliminate Robinson's last 5 seasons from his record.

Robinson has had much the longer career. I don't want to make it seem like Rolen is even with Robinson at this stage of his career. At this stage of his career, Brooks Robinson was amazing the world while leading the O's to the World Championship with his glove. Rolen, on the other hand, has been subpar, while nursing a chronic back injury.

What Rolen has to do is simple; return to his pre-2005 form for 2-3 years straight. The power loss he's experienced over the last two years suggests that his back problems are permanent, and that he, Rolen, has suffered a permanent diminishment of his skills. Rolen's chances of making the HOF all ride on a return to form. I give a 5% chance of that happening.

[Paul Wendt]

F.B. is right. Rolen seems to be done as a premier player and, if so, he falls short of the Santo and Others agenda.

pennants don't go to the best collection of position players, they need pitching and there's not much to say about 60s Cubs arms.
We may start by saying that the Chicubs arms were as good as the Chicubs bats.

Measured by the two indexes OPS+ and ERA+, the team's pitching was far far better than its batting in 1963 and 1969, slightly better than the batting in 1962 and 1965, tie in 1967. Although the batting was better than the pitching in the other five seasons (60-61, 64, 66, 68), the batting was never good, never better than 2% above league average (OPS+=102). The pitching was very good in '63 and great in '69.

[cavalier1968]

What to make of Scott Rolen?

Rolen has a .637 OWP, even after two poor years at the plate in a row. Brooks Robinson's career OWP is .523; he really is in the HOF solely for his defense (albeit AWESOME defense).

Honestly, where does Rolen rank vs. Brooks Robinson? Both were the premier defensive third basemen of their eras. Robinson was more dominant, but Rolen was much the better hitter, even if we eliminate Robinson's last 5 seasons from his record.

Robinson has had much the longer career. I don't want to make it seem like Rolen is even with Robinson at this stage of his career. At this stage of his career, Brooks Robinson was amazing the world while leading the O's to the World Championship with his glove. Rolen, on the other hand, has been subpar, while nursing a chronic back injury.

What Rolen has to do is simple; return to his pre-2005 form for 2-3 years straight. The power loss he's experienced over the last two years suggests that his back problems are permanent, and that he, Rolen, has suffered a permanent diminishment of his skills. Rolen's chances of making the HOF all ride on a return to form. I give a 5% chance of that happening.

I agree Fuzzy. If his career ended now his chances would be almost nil. But give him 10 GG and almost 400 hr? He's in


Cav

[Fuzzy Bear]

I agree Fuzzy. If his career ended now his chances would be almost nil. But give him 10 GG and almost 400 hr? He's in


Cav

I don't think he'll do it. But that's why they go ahead and play the game. Rolen won't be the first player to make my comments look foolish.

[murcercf1]

"What does Scott Rolen need to do? "

STAY HEALTHY !

[Fuzzy Bear]

"What does Scott Rolen need to do? "

STAY HEALTHY !

I wonder if anyone has a report on Rolen's health.

[Brad Harris]

Among 20th Century 3Bman w/ at least 6,000 PA, Rolen's OPS+ is inferior only to Schmidt, Jons, Mathews, Brett, Baker and Boggs. Just behind him on that list are Santo, Elliott and Madlock.

When you add in Rolen's defense - injuries or not - he's got a better case than someone like Ken Boyer or Bob Elliott (both of whom I support for the Hall). Rolen's at that point in his career, for me, where it's the difference between whether I support him and whether the voters will support him. ;)

[bambambaseball]

All Rolen needs is a natural decline. Hes a HOFer in my book.

[Paul Wendt]

It will help if wins MVP of the 2006 World Series and puts up another all-star season in 2007. (My desktop database still ends two year ago.)

According to the Red Sox radio team, he is pathetic in the field, one of the glaring weak spots in the AL East. If they overstate the matter, or if he will make some athletic recovery, that barely matters in hall of fame discussion. It seems clear that his productive batting career is over. On his batting record alone it seems clear, if he manages to pull off a "natural decline" that will be a great comeback.

--
Despite military service in Boyer's case,
Elliott and Boyer both finished with a few more than 8000 plate appearances and with about 12.8 full seasons (equivalent games played in all roles). Rolen now has 6800 pa and 10.0 full seasons. If he puts up three more seasons like the last two he will have more than 8000 pa and 12.1 full seasons. Why the disparity, equal plate appearances but 6% behind in fse games? First, because Rolen has played under 162-game schedules only, about 5% and 3% longer than the schedules for Elliott and Boyer. The residual, about 1% and 3% relative gains in plate appearances over those two rivals, must represent the net effect of higher scoring games for Rolen's teams, which bring all batters to the plate a little more often per complete game played, and any differences in completeness of games played by the three players.

--
Suppose Rolen does accumulate 8000 PA and 12.0 full seasons. Those marks don't "mean" what they once did, relatively speaking. Players of Rolen's generation and the two preceding generations of major league players have surpassed those marks in greater numbers than did their predecessors. Here are the numbers of career 8000-pa and 12.0-fse men by debut decade.

1870s - 1910s ; 1920s-1950s ; 1960s-1990s :: debut decades

3 , 11 15 10 16 ; 17 12 , 9 22 ; 34 38 43 , 8 :: at least 8000 PA (238)

16 21 17 12 22 ; 21 16 12 27 ; 41 47 47 10 :: at least 12.00 full seasons (309)

Elliott, Boyer, and Rolen debuted in the 1930s, 1950s and 1990s (bold). The database covers 1871-2006 so the counts for 1990s debuts are premature and two seasons behind the present.

More than half of the 8000-pa men have debuted in the 1960s to 1990s (123 of 238) and close to half of the 12.0-fse men (145 of 309).