Where will Cubs Finish?

[cubsfan1073]

Where do you guys see the Cubs finishing the 2007 season? Do you see them finishing 6th in the Central, winning the World Series?
I think we will finish first in the NL Central, but lose in the playoffs.

[Bob Sacamento]

Where do you guys see the Cubs finishing the 2007 season? Do you see them finishing 6th in the Central, winning the World Series?
I think we will finish first in the NL Central, but lose in the playoffs.
I don't know about where we finish but I've got us down for about 85 wins give or take 3, so anywhere from 82-80 to 88-74. Considering the Astros and Cardinals stood pat mostly (or regressed depending on who ya talk to) it should be a good run, but don't count out the Brewers, I think they'll be the big suprise/story of the 2007 season.

[Solair Wright]

I predict the Cubs will finally have a good season, for the first time since 2003. Let's see, you get leadoff man Soriano, but there are still clogs to prevent a >100 games won season. Jason Marquis never obeyed to both Dave Duncan and Leo Mazzone, one of the game's best two pitching coaches. I predict that he'll be a reliever before the All-Star break.

The main problem the Cubs have is not the Cardinals, but it's injuries. If they avoid injuries to Zambrano, Lee, and Wood, this team will dominate.

[otis89]

The main problem the Cubs have is not the Cardinals, but it's injuries. If they avoid injuries to Zambrano, Lee, and Wood, this team will dominate.

Yep. Injuries to middle relievers always kill teams. ;)

[rockin500]

87 wins for this team i expect. that wont be any worse than 2nd in this division and it could win it.

[Slightly Sarcastic]

Around .500, within a game or two either way.

[Cubsfan97]

Lol, first I will say the Cubs won;t win 100 games, I will say that right now, I just don't see it. 2nd, an injury to Wood or Prior wouldn't effect us really hard because we aren't depending on them this year. And it wouldn;t be only including Lee and Zambrano, if we lose Soriano things could get ugly, if we lose Aramis things could get ugly, if we lose just regular and a few star players like last year, thing swill be REALLY ugly. Don;t forget we had 2 big name players for most of last year in A-Ram and Big Z. The injury to Lee was bad, but as I said, one injury doesnt regulate to 96 losses. All the Cubs have to stay healthy, not just the superstars. Even a loss to Barrett or one of the OFers could prove fatal, more Murton than Jones though.

[pucks214]

I would be pleasently surprised if they went 500, shocked if they made the playoffs, I say they win about 75 or 76 games.

[Elvis]

82-80 ...........

[Lipsander]

91-71

This depends on our staff being healthy. Playing fundamental baseball will win us alot more games than you think. I'll tell you what I'm really excited about is our bullpen. If, and this is a huge if, Woody stays healthy, that pen will be dominating. With or without Dempster being on.

[Slightly Sarcastic]

91-71

This depends on our staff being healthy.

...and Soriano maintaining his .351 OBP from last year.

...and Lee having another 2005 season.

...and Marquis not sucking out loud.

...and Prior pitching 200+ quality innings.

...and Jones not falling off too far.

...and Murton not getting benched for Floyd.

...and having a shutdown closer, whoever it might be.

...and Izturis becoming more than an automatic out.

...and DeRosa matching his career year from last year.

...and Hill continuing the last couple months of last season throughout this season.




...and just about everything else going perfectly.



This team has a good shot at reaching, or barely passing, the .500 mark. Getting to 90 wins is nothing more than wild optimism.

[Jojo1691]

I would say around the low 80 win mark or around .500. I'll say 83-79

[pucks214]

91-71

This depends on our staff being healthy. Playing fundamental baseball will win us alot more games than you think. I'll tell you what I'm really excited about is our bullpen. If, and this is a huge if, Woody stays healthy, that pen will be dominating. With or without Dempster being on.
Shoot yourself for thinking a last place team can win 91 games, they didn't even improve that much.

[Westlake]

About 86-76, good for a wildcard spot.

[Call Me Genius]

I'm going to say they win the central, I cant say how many victories, but I think they win the Central. I just dont see many teams in the Central having improved more than the Cubs during the offseason. The Cardinals' rotation is in shambles after the offseason signing period, the Astro's added Lee but still have guys like Brad Ausmus and Adam Everrett bogging down the lineup and they've lost thier leadoff guy in Tavarez. The Reds blew up thier lineup all together last year in that trade with the nationals, and the Pirates, well they're the Pirates. I just dont see anyone but the Cubs winning it this year, but it would seem over the years they find it in them to loose some how, someway.


Edit: Ooops forgot the Brewers....Young, good team, could challenge also, but I just dont see them with the talent just yet to win that division.

[Lipsander]

Shoot yourself for thinking a last place team can win 91 games, they didn't even improve that much.



We'll see. How many do you think they will win then? Didn't improve that much, please.

[Lipsander]

...and Soriano maintaining his .351 OBP from last year.

...and Lee having another 2005 season.

...and Marquis not sucking out loud.

...and Prior pitching 200+ quality innings.

...and Jones not falling off too far.

...and Murton not getting benched for Floyd.

...and having a shutdown closer, whoever it might be.

...and Izturis becoming more than an automatic out.

...and DeRosa matching his career year from last year.

...and Hill continuing the last couple months of last season throughout this season.




...and just about everything else going perfectly.



This team has a good shot at reaching, or barely passing, the .500 mark. Getting to 90 wins is nothing more than wild optimism.

-Barring an injury, why wouldn't Lee have another good to great year?

-Why would Jones fall that far off?

-Why won't Prior pitch alot and well this year? He's only had freak injuries, nothing substantial.

-Floyd will bench Murton because he'll be healthy.

-Marquis has had 1 terrible year, chances are he'll be fine.

-Fundamental baseball play goes along way for winning games.


All in all, none of us know, we'll have to wait and see.

[Slightly Sarcastic]

-Barring an injury, why wouldn't Lee have another good to great year?

-Why would Jones fall that far off?

-Why won't Prior pitch alot and well this year? He's only had freak injuries, nothing substantial.

-Floyd will bench Murton because he'll be healthy.

-Marquis has had 1 terrible year, chances are he'll be fine.

-Fundamental baseball play goes along way for winning games.


All in all, none of us know, we'll have to wait and see.

- Lee has had one great year, and that was well beyond his career norms. I hope he can approach those numbers again, but there's no reason to believe he will.

- Why wouldn't he? He had two straight seasons of .250-ish/.315-ish/.430-ish seasons before last year and he's going to be 32 very soon.

- Prior has pitched very well every year except for last year, he just hasn't been on the mound that much. Again, I hope he's out there for 200+ innings putting up pre-2006 type numbers, but there's really no reason to believe he will.

- If Floyd benches Murton, then we probably lose about 3-4 games because of it.

- I'm sure you meant to say Marquis has had 1 good season. Chances are he will suck.

- "Fundamental" baseball is the kind of thing that loses ball games. Sac bunts, and attempting alot of stolen bases are just giving away outs, and with our poor team OBP, we simply can't afford to give away outs and hope to contend.

[Lipsander]

Ok, good points, we'll have to wait and see how it plays out. You seriously think fundamental baseball doesn't help win games? Hit and runs, bunt over runners, stolen bases, etc. Come on now.

[Slightly Sarcastic]

You seriously think fundamental baseball doesn't help win games? Hit and runs, bunt over runners, stolen bases, etc. Come on now.

Absolutely.

Hit and runs I can get behind to a degree, but bunting and stealing don't have enough positive impact to outweigh all the bad they do.

Surely you can see how an OBP-challenged team giving up free outs is a horrible thing.

[Lipsander]

I agree you can't give up free outs. I'm curious, are you in favor of Earl Weaver type of offense? Get a couple runners on and wait for a homer?

[Slightly Sarcastic]

I agree you can't give up free outs.

That's exactly what bunting is.



I'm curious, are you in favor of Earl Weaver type of offense? Get a couple runners on and wait for a homer?

Not exactly. Doubles work well too.

I'm in favor of high OBP, and very much against smallball.

[Lipsander]

They always say, "pitching and defense wins championships". Starting pitching..........uh. Defense............uh. Maybe I should change my record I thought the Cubs may have. :p

[Butcher]

The notion that you have to make up (fill in the number) wins from the previous year doesn't make a whole lot of sense. 2006 was 2006 -- the 2007 ballclub is a completely different animal.

Take a look at the Cubs roster from top to bottom and compare it with the other rosters in the NL Central. Taking a purely objective view, I'd say the Cubs *should* compete with any team in their division.

Personally, I don't think there is a clear favorite. But the Cubs should be right there at the end...

[Slightly Sarcastic]

They always say, "pitching and defense wins championships". Starting pitching..........uh. Defense............uh. Maybe I should change my record I thought the Cubs may have. :p


"They" say alot of things.


While it may or may not be true, a consistent offense wins regular season games, and you can't be in a position to win a championship without it.

[cpomeroy]

Shoot yourself for thinking a last place team can win 91 games, they didn't even improve that much.

Hmm.. If you call getting rid of every crap player we had last year..
Perez, Harriston, Pierre, Cedeno, Bynum, Womack and 4 Rookie pitchers (Most of these guys will be in the bigs someday, just shouldn't have had them all at the same time)

And signing
Soriano, Floyd, Derosa, Lillie, Marquis, Cotts and Ward

with these guys healthy and ready to play
Lee, Prior, Wood, Miller

Not improving much, I have no idea what your idea of improvement would be.

My prediction, Cubs win 90 games this season and NL Central and at least the NLDS.

[Bob Sacamento]

The notion that you have to make up (fill in the number) wins from the previous year doesn't make a whole lot of sense. 2006 was 2006 -- the 2007 ballclub is a completely different animal..It may seem that way but there are only a handful of teams in MLB history to improve their win total by 20 games over the previous season, which would put us at 86 wins in 2007. The company to improve by 25 wins in one year is even slimmer.

[Butcher]

It may seem that way but there are only a handful of teams in MLB history to improve their win total by 20 games over the previous season, which would put us at 86 wins in 2007. The company to improve by 25 wins in one year is even slimmer.
I understand that and I've heard many experts say that (which is probably why very few baseball writers are picking the Cubs to win the Central). But...how many teams have had the massive overhaul that the Cubs just had? The 2006 Cubs barely even resembles the 2007 Cubs. If we added a player or two, then I would agree with you wholeheartedly.

I just think that with this team -- given the changes -- you have to evaluate it in a vacuum and forget about 2006.

I will concede that history is not on the side of my argument and I could very well be proven wrong. But...stacking up our roster against the rosters of the other teams in the NL Central...I like our chances.

[GaryL]

I just think that with this team -- given the changes -- you have to evaluate it in a vacuum and forget about 2006.

I agree. No one has been harder of Jim Hendry that I have been over the years. But you have to give credit where credit is due...and I think he has done an outstanding job this off-season. I was saying last year that we had to add at least one big bopper and at least two starting pitchers...and that's exactly what he did. We now have four guys who are capable of pitching 180-200 innings, which is one of the keys to contending teams (I'm talking about Z, Lilly, Marquis, and Hill). And the biggest change from the past few years is we're no longer counting on Prior and Wood. If they come through...fine...that'll be a bonus.

Also, we added a manager who will not tolerate mediocre play. I heard Steve Stone say on the Score the other day: "Lou Piniella is a great guy...but when he puts on that uniform...if you're on his team you better come ready to play." That's the kind of manager I want!

Last year at this time I predicted the Cubs would be fighting it out for 5th with the Pirates. I had a real bad feel for that team...this year, I'm predicting the Cubs win the divison. This year, I've got a real good feel for this team.

[cubsfan1073]

FYI....
Baseball Prospectus predicts us with an 84-78 record.

[cubsfan1073]

Shoot yourself for thinking a last place team can win 91 games, they didn't even improve that much.
Do you think the 1991 Braves and Twins should shoot themselves too?

1990 Twins: 74-88
1991 Twins: 95-67

1990 Braves: 65-97
1991 Braves: 94-68

[Lipsander]

I think I'm more excited about Lou being in Chicago than anything else. He demands you play the game the right way or you will sit the bench. I love it.

[Bob Sacamento]

Do you think the 1991 Braves and Twins should shoot themselves too?

1990 Twins: 74-88
1991 Twins: 95-67

1990 Braves: 65-97
1991 Braves: 94-68
Both organizations did the turn around with homegrown talent (often young and touted) whom played significant time in the losing season. Not the Cubs method by going and trying an overhaul via free agency. There aren't too many success stories, in fact they tend to get men fired, go ask Steve Phillips of the Mets.

[StanTheMan]

I think I'm more excited about Lou being in Chicago than anything else. He demands you play the game the right way or you will sit the bench. I love it.


Well then, Ramirez will be on the bench. He of the WORST Fielding Percentage in all of baseball over the last 5 years.... a horrid .949. :laugh

I see the Cubs MUCH improved, but not quite there yet. They will battle Milwaukee for 3rd place. The Cards and Houston will both be better, in the 88-92 win range. Cubs and Milwaukee will be in the 82-88 range.

And I think Wood might end up your closer at some point this year, so his health may be important. Howry is very good (would love to have him if the Cards bullpen wasn't overflowing) but may not be closer material.

Marquis will suffer greatly, in a smaller ballpark with a suspect defense. He relies on the Fastball WAY too much. At least the ads on the walls will help pay for his salary.

[E.Banks#14]

Well then, Ramirez will be on the bench. He of the WORST Fielding Percentage in all of baseball over the last 5 years.... a horrid .949. :laugh
Well, he had the best FPCT for NL 3B-men last year at .965.

[Bob Sacamento]

Well, he had the best FPCT for NL 3B-men last year at .965.
The last few years with the Cubs, we've asked Ramirez to cover little ground at 3B, that's why there's been a big insistence on having a defensive minded SS who covers alot of ground.

[StanTheMan]

Well, he had the best FPCT for NL 3B-men last year at .965.

If that's true then he must have been absolutely disgusting the four prior yeras. Don't get me wrong, he is a very talented hitter, but I abhor poor defensive 3B'men. How many chances or assists did he have compared to the average NL 3B'man? I'd bet fewer than average, which makes the .965 not quite so shiny.

In continuing the long tradition of Cards and Cubs fans going back and forth verbally, I like to pronounce Aramis as "Error-Miss."

[Slightly Sarcastic]

If that's true then he must have been absolutely disgusting the four prior yeras. Don't get me wrong, he is a very talented hitter, but I abhor poor defensive 3B'men. How many chances or assists did he have compared to the average NL 3B'man? I'd bet fewer than average, which makes the .965 not quite so shiny.

In continuing the long tradition of Cards and Cubs fans going back and forth verbally, I like to pronounce Aramis as "Error-Miss."


And I like to spell your 1B's name as "Poo-Holes".


But anyway, Aramis certainly isn't the best defensive 3B around, but his bat more than makes up for his defensive shortcomings. The strategy they've employed of having him cover less ground by having a good SS next to him has helped.

[StanTheMan]

And I like to spell your 1B's name as "Poo-Holes".


But anyway, Aramis certainly isn't the best defensive 3B around, but his bat more than makes up for his defensive shortcomings. The strategy they've employed of having him cover less ground by having a good SS next to him has helped.

Glad to see you came back with something.... :clapping

No doubt, both of these two guys can hit.

[Lipsander]

Please tell me how the Cardinals got better this year?

[Slightly Sarcastic]

Please tell me how the Cardinals got better this year?

Well, they got rid of Marquis. That helped them.



I forget, who signed that horrible pitcher anyway?

Oh yeah....

[Lipsander]

The Cards have Carpenter and who else? No one. I'd be surprised to see the Cards win 80 games this year.

[Slightly Sarcastic]

The Cards have Carpenter and who else? No one. I'd be surprised to see the Cards win 80 games this year.

I'm going to refrain from defending the Cardinals in detail, because I hate all things Cardinal.

But to underestimate them like that is simply wrong.

[Butcher]

The Cards and Houston will both be better, in the 88-92 win range.
The Astros lost Pettitte and are (presumably) losing Clemens. They added Carlos Lee.

So...this makes them better?

I presume adding Adam Kennedy makes the Cards better?

[Lipsander]

The Cards and Houston will both be better, in the 88-92 win range.




No way in hell.

[StanTheMan]

Please tell me how the Cardinals got better this year?

I am terribly sorry, this is a Cubs thread, on a Cubs Board... but you asked! :cool: While not at all inclusive or 100% take it to the bank views, what is below is generally accepted.

But don't take my word for it..... From Athlons 2007 Preview....

The Cardinals will start 2007 with an everyday lineup that is better than the one that started 2006..... While temas like Chicago and Houston made dramatic moves in the free agent market, the Cardinals will still be the class of the division if they can find enough stability in their starting rotation.

I challenge you to find a similar statement about the Cubs in any publication not named Tribune........ at least I have not read any.

So, if Athlon is not where you like to get info... here goes!! In no particular order.

1 Adam Kennedy is an improvement over the platoon of Luna and Miles. He has played with Gold Glover Eckstein before, so the D up the middle will be fine. Add that to the three other Gold Glovers, add Molina, who may win it next year, and the inexpereinced pitching staff will benefit from the Cardinal leather. It's been that way for years......

2 Chris Duncan hit 22 Home Runs in 260 at bats in the second half of 2006. That's a bomb every 12.7 AB's. How does that compare? Soriano hit one every 14 AB's. The two are not the same player, mind you, I'm just pointing out that the guy hit the he11 ot of the ball last year. He has also worked VERY hard on his defense in the offseason... we'll see. Unlike your team, we value defense and he must improve. Duncan may bat 2nd and will reap HUGE benefits.. i.e. seeing lots of good pitches being in front of Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, WITHOUT much pressure on him to produce, or to get that big hit every day, or even every other day. Many young players thrive in that type of situation.

3 I expect Wainwright, who has been a starter his ENTIRE baseball career before last year, to be a HUGE upgrade from an ineffective/injured 1st half of 2006 Mark Mulder. Pecota has Wainwright at 10+ wins with a sub 4 ERA. If Marquis even approaches those numbers, I will wash your car for you every week for a year.

4 Anthony Reyes is also an upgrade over Jason Marquis, and his 6.02 ERA in 2006. Not just the postseason Reyes, but also the Reyes who pitched a one hitter against the defending Champion White Sox in June of 2006. He was inconsistent, but his successful outings were MUCH more successful than just about anything Marquis has produced in years, much less the success enjoyed in the postseason. I hate the term "upside," but Reyes is EXACTLY the kind of guy that Dave Duncan has a proven track record of success with, even if not for more than a handful of seasons. (see Williams, Woody. Morris, Matt. Simontacchi, Jason, and Marquis, Jason of a few seasons ago.)

5 Albert Pujos is just reaching his prime, after the greatest start in the history of Major League Baseball. And BEFORE you go nuts disputing that FACT... read on. No player, not Ruth, or Dimaggio, or Williams, or Musial, or anybody, had EVER started their career with more than two consecutive seasons in which he SURPASSED the following thresholds. Batting average above .300, HR's above 30, RBI above 100 and Runs above 100. What no player had been able to do for more than two consecutive seasons to start a career, Pujols has done for each of his first SIX seasons... three times longer than anyone else has been able to manage. And Albert is absolutely CRUSHING those numbers, at more than .330, 42 HR, 120 RBI and 115 runs per. Theoretically, he will peak in the next several years, which is absolutely scary. Better get some broken glass insurance on both Waveland AND Sheffield.

6 Kip Wells had a 3 month stretch in the middle of the year last year in which he was one of the ERA leaders in the NL, with a sub 3 ERA. Can Dave Duncan catch lightening in bottle again? Perhaps. See Reyes above.

7 Rolen is COMPLETELY healthy heading into Spring Training for the first time in a LONG time. Expect another .290+ 25+ 110+ and defense that Aramis Ramirez can't even duplicate in a video game.

8 Colby Rasmus is the heir apparent to center field for Jim Edmonds, and is ready for the big leagues, imo. We have not had good cover for Edmonds in some time, and are much less worried about Jimmy's injury tendencies than ever before.

9 Isringhausen is throwing well in Spring Training sessions, with NO pain in his surgically repaired hip. Just news reports at this point, but encouraging nontheless. This frees up Wainwright to move to the rotation, and might be the biggest point of all these.

10 Molina had the most hits of all players last postseason. While this may not translate into a big year at the plate, he won't hit .216 again. He is the best defensive catcher in the NL... the best at throwing out runners stealing and has more "pickoffs" from the catcher position than anyone in baseball over the last two seasons.

11 The bullpen is silly good. Josh Kinney had 22 K's in 25 postseason innings. Russ Springer is a good acquisition and will help setup. Tyler Johnson is sick against lefties, and Randy Flores is a very good situational guy. Looper, Thompson, Rincon is healthy again and Josh Hancock are just the type of guys you probably don't recognize, but help you not only win games, but also win trophies.

12 The bench is solid, and may be the best bench in the National League. Taguchi is versatile as it gets for outfielder subs, and still has a great glove and excellent speed. Spezio reinvented himself last year, and came through in the postseason. He can also play 3rd or outfield, and is exactly the kind of guy I want on a team. Preston Wilson is another guy with loads of experience who came through in the postseason.... and I expect good things in his 40 or so games and 100 or so at bats.

14 The Cardinals did NOT spend big money on silly free agent pitchers. When they guys do NOT produce (as many of them are bound not to) or get injured, the Cards will be laughing all the way to the bank.

15 2006 was the clubs most succesful FINANCIAL season under the current ownership.


16 And the Cards won this..... which can't hurt can it?







The last time the Cubs won one of these, there were people in attendance who voted for Abraham Lincoln in elections. They are much improved, but that team last year was last in the National League. Fewer wins than Pittsburg, for crying out loud and only outscoring them by a handful of runs. The Cub offense has upgraded, no doubt, but I respectfully submit that you lot have not won much of anything in five generations... so forgive me for not overstating your chance of success..... but I'll believe it when I see it. I'm honestly not trying to be disrespectful here.... sorry if it comes across that way. In all honestly I think that 2003 was the WORST thing that could have happened to your fan base... that was a good team, but far from a great one, who actually made the playoffs due to other teams misfortunes that season (go back and look at ours, and Houston's injuries). That may sound harsh, but the proof is in the pudding..... the 2004 Cubs won MORE games than the 2003 Cubs, but finished 15 games behind a healthy Cardinals team. Lots of Cub fans are still living off the hollow success of the 2003 team, which can be compared to the relatively poor regular season success of the 2007 Cardinals for no more than two or three seconds... due to the fact that the Cardinals actually WON in the postseason.

There is no true powerhouse in the NL Central, I concede that..... but to say that the Cards aren't 1 or 1A in this division (#2 at worst) is just silly.

I do admire your enthusiasm to your team.... it should be a fun season for you, with a much improved squad on the Northside. I just think you have too big a hill to climb from last season..... and I predict Marquis will be in the bullpen by June. He throws WAY too many fastballs.

[Lipsander]

I am terribly sorry, this is a Cubs thread, on a Cubs Board... but you asked! :cool: While not at all inclusive or 100% take it to the bank views, what is below is generally accepted.

But don't take my word for it..... From Athlons 2007 Preview....

The Cardinals will start 2007 with an everyday lineup that is better than the one that started 2006..... While temas like Chicago and Houston made dramatic moves in the free agent market, the Cardinals will still be the class of the division if they can find enough stability in their starting rotation.

I challenge you to find a similar statement about the Cubs in any publication not named Tribune........ at least I have not read any.

So, if Athlon is not where you like to get info... here goes!! In no particular order.

1 Adam Kennedy is an improvement over the platoon of Luna and Miles. He has played with Gold Glover Eckstein before, so the D up the middle will be fine. Add that to the three other Gold Glovers, add Molina, who may win it next year, and the inexpereinced pitching staff will benefit from the Cardinal leather. It's been that way for years......

2 Chris Duncan hit 22 Home Runs in 260 at bats in the second half of 2006. That's a bomb every 12.7 AB's. How does that compare? Soriano hit one every 14 AB's. The two are not the same player, mind you, I'm just pointing out that the guy hit the he11 ot of the ball last year. He has also worked VERY hard on his defense in the offseason... we'll see. Unlike your team, we value defense and he must improve. Duncan may bat 2nd and will reap HUGE benefits.. i.e. seeing lots of good pitches being in front of Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, WITHOUT much pressure on him to produce, or to get that big hit every day, or even every other day. Many young players thrive in that type of situation.

3 I expect Wainwright, who has been a starter his ENTIRE baseball career before last year, to be a HUGE upgrade from an ineffective/injured 1st half of 2006 Mark Mulder. Pecota has Wainwright at 10+ wins with a sub 4 ERA. If Marquis even approaches those numbers, I will wash your car for you every week for a year.

4 Anthony Reyes is also an upgrade over Jason Marquis, and his 6.02 ERA in 2006. Not just the postseason Reyes, but also the Reyes who pitched a one hitter against the defending Champion White Sox in June of 2006. He was inconsistent, but his successful outings were MUCH more successful than just about anything Marquis has produced in years, much less the success enjoyed in the postseason. I hate the term "upside," but Reyes is EXACTLY the kind of guy that Dave Duncan has a proven track record of success with, even if not for more than a handful of seasons. (see Williams, Woody. Morris, Matt. Simontacchi, Jason, and Marquis, Jason of a few seasons ago.)

5 Albert Pujos is just reaching his prime, after the greatest start in the history of Major League Baseball. And BEFORE you go nuts disputing that FACT... read on. No player, not Ruth, or Dimaggio, or Williams, or Musial, or anybody, had EVER started their career with more than two consecutive seasons in which he SURPASSED the following thresholds. Batting average above .300, HR's above 30, RBI above 100 and Runs above 100. What no player had been able to do for more than two consecutive seasons to start a career, Pujols has done for each of his first SIX seasons... three times longer than anyone else has been able to manage. And Albert is absolutely CRUSHING those numbers, at more than .330, 42 HR, 120 RBI and 115 runs per. Theoretically, he will peak in the next several years, which is absolutely scary. Better get some broken glass insurance on both Waveland AND Sheffield.

6 Kip Wells had a 3 month stretch in the middle of the year last year in which he was one of the ERA leaders in the NL, with a sub 3 ERA. Can Dave Duncan catch lightening in bottle again? Perhaps. See Reyes above.

7 Rolen is COMPLETELY healthy heading into Spring Training for the first time in a LONG time. Expect another .290+ 25+ 110+ and defense that Aramis Ramirez can't even duplicate in a video game.

8 Colby Rasmus is the heir apparent to center field for Jim Edmonds, and is ready for the big leagues, imo. We have not had good cover for Edmonds in some time, and are much less worried about Jimmy's injury tendencies than ever before.

9 Isringhausen is throwing well in Spring Training sessions, with NO pain in his surgically repaired hip. Just news reports at this point, but encouraging nontheless. This frees up Wainwright to move to the rotation, and might be the biggest point of all these.

10 Molina had the most hits of all players last postseason. While this may not translate into a big year at the plate, he won't hit .216 again. He is the best defensive catcher in the NL... the best at throwing out runners stealing and has more "pickoffs" from the catcher position than anyone in baseball over the last two seasons.

11 The bullpen is silly good. Josh Kinney had 22 K's in 25 postseason innings. Russ Springer is a good acquisition and will help setup. Tyler Johnson is sick against lefties, and Randy Flores is a very good situational guy. Looper, Thompson, Rincon is healthy again and Josh Hancock are just the type of guys you probably don't recognize, but help you not only win games, but also win trophies.

12 The bench is solid, and may be the best bench in the National League. Taguchi is versatile as it gets for outfielder subs, and still has a great glove and excellent speed. Spezio reinvented himself last year, and came through in the postseason. He can also play 3rd or outfield, and is exactly the kind of guy I want on a team. Preston Wilson is another guy with loads of experience who came through in the postseason.... and I expect good things in his 40 or so games and 100 or so at bats.

14 The Cardinals did NOT spend big money on silly free agent pitchers. When they guys do NOT produce (as many of them are bound not to) or get injured, the Cards will be laughing all the way to the bank.

15 2006 was the clubs most succesful FINANCIAL season under the current ownership.


16 And the Cards won this..... which can't hurt can it?







The last time the Cubs won one of these, there were people in attendance who voted for Abraham Lincoln in elections. They are much improved, but that team last year was last in the National League. Fewer wins than Pittsburg, for crying out loud and only outscoring them by a handful of runs. The Cub offense has upgraded, no doubt, but I respectfully submit that you lot have not won much of anything in five generations... so forgive me for not overstating your chance of success..... but I'll believe it when I see it. I'm honestly not trying to be disrespectful here.... sorry if it comes across that way. In all honestly I think that 2003 was the WORST thing that could have happened to your fan base... that was a good team, but far from a great one, who actually made the playoffs due to other teams misfortunes that season (go back and look at ours, and Houston's injuries). That may sound harsh, but the proof is in the pudding..... the 2004 Cubs won MORE games than the 2003 Cubs, but finished 15 games behind a healthy Cardinals team. Lots of Cub fans are still living off the hollow success of the 2003 team, which can be compared to the relatively poor regular season success of the 2007 Cardinals for no more than two or three seconds... due to the fact that the Cardinals actually WON in the postseason.

There is no true powerhouse in the NL Central, I concede that..... but to say that the Cards aren't 1 or 1A in this division (#2 at worst) is just silly.

I do admire your enthusiasm to your team.... it should be a fun season for you, with a much improved squad on the Northside. I just think you have too big a hill to climb from last season..... and I predict Marquis will be in the bullpen by June. He throws WAY too many fastballs.

#1, I agree there.

#2, teams adjust to young players. They now have tapes and charts on how to get him out, what his strengths and weaknesses are. If he can overcome this, as many cannot, then kudos to him.

#3, you expect Wainwright to do better, yeah, we've expected Kerry Wood to be healthy all these years. Look where that's got us.

#4, Reyes is unproven for the most part as an every day starter. I compare him to Hill in our rotation. They both did some nice things last year, but either could come out this year and implode, ala Rick Ankiel.

#5, I would be completely stupid to argue against Albert Pujols, he's the man.

#6, Kip Wells for a couple months was the ERA leader. Honestly, how many pitchers can you say that about. A few every year, and Wells has been a Pirate starting pitcher, enough said.

#7, Rolen is a very good player, no argument.

#8, Colby Rasmus is unproven, untested. Anything positive in his favor is expectation and wishes.

#9, Wainwright will be your closer, due to Isringhausen has been declining for a few years now. I expect this year to be no different. Wainwright could be a very good closer. Points for Wainwright.

#10, Hits in the post season? Yeah, that helped the Cards to win it all. He'll have to actually hit in the real season this year and throw out alot of runners due to all the base runners the Cards will have while in the field, minus Carpenter, because he's a great pitcher.

#11, your bullpen is good.

#12, your bench is annually good.

#13, well, you skipped 13 for some reason :laugh

#14, who cares, it isn't my $$$. At least we didn't act as if we tried to sign a few big names and came up short as in years past. Also, please see your point #6.

#15, as well it should be, you won the series and have the best player in the game.

I look forward to this season between our teams.

[Butcher]

Stan -- most of the improvements you're hoping for/counting on are internal improvements or better health.

That was the same kind of wishful thinking our management employed in 2005 and 2006.

Maybe it will work out better for the 2007 Cardinals. And if it doesn't, at least you've got your World Series ring already.

...and I hope you freaking choke on it...


but I respectfully submit that you lot have not won much of anything in five generations... so forgive me for not overstating your chance of success..... but I'll believe it when I see it. I'm honestly not trying to be disrespectful here.... sorry if it comes across that way.
Nice jab there, Stan. We're all aware of the Cubs history of futility -- but it has nothing to do with the 2007 team or this argument in particular. So forgive me if I don't believe you for a second that "you're not trying to be disrespectful here." It was a cheap shot and a low blow...but I've come to expect that kind of garbage from Cards fans...

[StanTheMan]

[QUOTE=Butcher]Stan -- most of the improvements you're hoping for/counting on are internal improvements or better health.

That was the same kind of wishful thinking our management employed in 2005 and 2006.

Maybe it will work out better for the 2007 Cardinals. And if it doesn't, at least you've got your World Series ring already.

...and I hope you freaking choke on it...[QUOTE]






Choke on it? Good one. I can understand your jealously, and it correctly typfies your passion for your team and for the rivalry.


Wishful thinking? The same kind? Umm... from a team that has been in the postseason 5 of 7 years? Have the Cubs been in the postseason 5 times in 7 decades? I can't be bothered to look it up, and beyond 2003, 1984.... ummmmm. Yeah, thought so.

It was not my team that was last in the National League at ANY point in my entire lifetime... and I am old enough to have been to Bob Gibson day, my friend.

If you want to chalk up the Cardinals chances this year as "wishful thinking" along the lines of 2005 (decent Cubs team) and 2006 (last in the entire league)... well then, you just don't understand baseball. I'm sorry for that.

I tried to be nice... but apparently you don't want to be. Chew on this... I have personally been to more World Series games to see my team play(6) than your entire family has been to..... heck... more than all the members of the Cubs Board has been too.... COMBINED.

Our two teams are really not in the same class, my friend. In fact, the rivalry is really a bigger deal for you, than for us. We prefer to win pennants and rings. If it was not for the close geography, you would really be the Padres to us. Decent every once in a while, but perenially an afterthought.


Sorry for the heated exit. I should not have got involved on this board. See you on other boards, and good luck this year.

Bryan in Indy

[Butcher]

Yeah. Post your little picture and then leave...

I'll just remind you that YOU came to a CUBS board and acted like a jerk -- not the other way around.

By the way, your arguments are so entirely beside the point that I hardly know where to begin. My "wishful thinking" comment was directed to the supposed improvement of the 2006 Cardinals to the 2007 Cardinals. It has nothing to do with the history of the Cards or Cubs or to previous playoff appearances. I simply stated that the Cubs management believed that the 2005 and 2006 Cubs would improve because of better health and internal improvement -- just like the 2007 Cards are hoping for. That would classify it as "wishful thinking." You follow?

I never said their CHANCES are wishful thinking -- they have as good a chance as anyone. I said their supposed improvement is the same kind of wishful thinking as previous Cubs teams. Maybe it will work out better for the Cards...


Have the Cubs been in the postseason 5 times in 7 decades? I can't be bothered to look it up, and beyond 2003, 1984.... ummmmm. Yeah, thought so.
Hmmm...the Cubs haven't been to the postseason often? Really? Thanks for pointing that out. However, you're wrong. 1998 and 1989 both fall between 2003 and 1984.


Our two teams are really not in the same class, my friend. In fact, the rivalry is really a bigger deal for you, than for us.
The Cards have won more than the Cubs. How can I argue this? Hell...nearly every team in the history of sports has won more than the Cubs. But I think you're wrong about the rivalry. Everytime I go to Wrigley for a Cubs/Cards game I see plenty of Cards fans wearing "Got Rings?" shirts (and other shirts just like that) -- taunting the Cubs fans with a list of World Series on the back comparing the Cubs/Cards -- far more than any Cubs fans wearing anti-Cards t-shirts. But that's neither here nor there.

I tried to stick to the argument and you made a bunch of weak jabs regarding Cards World Series appearances...which led me to tell you to choke on it. Then you act all incensed like you were Mr. Civility and I attacked you out of nowhere. Whatever, pal. I'm used to it by now. 99% of Cards fans I have met are smug, arrogant a-holes just like you.

[RBi]

ok guys,

Let's stay on topic... if it is not discussing the Chicago Cubs.. and Where they will finish in 2007... I dont want to see it here.

Stan, I hope you understand/expected some sort of reply like the ones you have received, since this is the Cubs forum...

There really isn't much room for such trolling. Please, by all means if you want to debate the team, and you know enough about our team to debate.. then do so, but I beg you not to make comments just to start a fight..

those sort of actions will get a person nowhere.... fast.

[wogdoggy]

Please tell me how the Cardinals got better this year?


we have dave duncan

[Westlake]

It's up to the Cubs to get better this year Lipsander not the Cardinals, they won the division and the Cubs were dismal. They have obviously done that.. the question is to what extent.

[otis89]

we have dave duncan

You've had him for quite a while. Keeping a pitching coach doesn't mean you improved.

[Solair Wright]

The Cards have Carpenter and who else? No one. I'd be surprised to see the Cards win 80 games this year.

Unfortunately, this is going to be true. The Cardinals will suffer a losing season, their first one since 1999, despite McGwire's home runs, the pitching was horrible. The offense can't support the whole team, as it usually is a sign of a losing season.

For example, you get good third basemen and bad third basemen. For example, Steve Beuchele, a one-time Cub, is not Aramis Ramirez.

EDIT: Dave Duncan may be a good pitching coach, but he's not going to stop the losing season from occuring.

[Lipsander]

It's up to the Cubs to get better this year Lipsander not the Cardinals, they won the division and the Cubs were dismal. They have obviously done that.. the question is to what extent.


I know. The other Cards fan said the Cards got better and will win more this year. That's why I commented. No harm, no foul. I like the conversation and arguing points. :) Good luck to both teams.

[Butcher]

Unfortunately, this is going to be true. The Cardinals will suffer a losing season, their first one since 1999, despite McGwire's home runs, the pitching was horrible. The offense can't support the whole team, as it usually is a sign of a losing season.

For example, you get good third basemen and bad third basemen. For example, Steve Beuchele, a one-time Cub, is not Aramis Ramirez.

EDIT: Dave Duncan may be a good pitching coach, but he's not going to stop the losing season from occuring.
Reverse psychology?

[ZR56664]

Lou Piniella makes all the difference to me. All dusty did was sit on his ass and chew toothpicks. I am not going to make a win loss prediction but I will say I think The Cubs have a good chance to win wild card right behind the Brewers.

[Lipsander]

Yep, Houston is definately better. Losing Pettite and possibly Clemens, yep, that's getting better. The Cards won the Central last year with 83 wins and you say the Cubs will win 80? So, you are saying the Cards are right there with the Cubs? The Cards lost a few players last year and have young unproven starting pitching, so if they win more than 83 this year, I would be surprised by mammoth proportions.

[TheKingofKings]

I think the Cubs will finish 1st in the Central, they have the most complete Rotation in their Division since the 2 top teams that couls of challenged them this season lost big chunks of their Rotations (STL: Suppan, Marquis, Weaver; HOU: Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens). On top of that, the Cubs kept and added more to their offense with the signings of "Fonso" and DeRosa.

Prediction:

Chicago
St. Louis
Houston
Cincinatti
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh

[Pods fan 22]

why do you have the brewers so low? there young tallent is just another year more advanced and matured???

[Lipsander]

I agree, the Brewers will be alot better this year. Given that all teams in the division stay relatively heathly, this is my opinion:


Chicago
Milwaukee
Houston
St. Louis
Cincinatti
Pittsburgh

I think Milwaukee's young talent will mature this year, finally. Houston loses Pettite and Clemens ( possibly ). St. Louis lost too much experience in their rotation. Cincinnati will be less this year, they added no one hardly. Pittsburgh will be Pittsburgh.