2007 Player Projections

[concept2complex]

Here's mine.

Jose Reyes-.305/20hr/80rbi/70sb(20 triples :) )

Paul Lo Duca-.300/5hr/65rbi/2sb

Carlos Beltran- .280/45hr/135rbi/20sb

Carlos Delgado- .275/35hr/120rbi/0sb

David Wright- .330/30hr/140rbi/25sb (MVP YEAR)

Moises Alous- .290/23hr/92rbi/5sb (If he is healthy)

Shawn Green- .283/16hr/65rbi/4sb

Jose Valentine- .271/ 14hr/ 55rbi/10sb (I doubt he can repeat what he did last year)

Lets see what you guys think.

[gbdmets]

Reyes- .330/15/55 SB
LoDuca- .285/5/60
Beltran- .290/32/90
Delgado- 275/43/120
Wright-.300/30/100
Alou-.240/25/70
Green-.235/15/70
Valentin-.220/10/45



Galvine 12-14 4.20
El Duque 10-12 5.00
Maine 14-8 4.00
Perez 8-15 5.50

[concept2complex]

Reyes- .330/15/55 SB
LoDuca- .285/5/60
Beltran- .290/32/90
Delgado- 275/43/120
Wright-.300/30/100
Alou-.240/25/70
Green-.235/15/70
Valentin-.220/10/45



Galvine 12-14 4.20
El Duque 10-12 5.00
Maine 14-8 4.00
Perez 8-15 5.50


Wtf? Glavine 12-14

El duque 10-12 ? Your joking right...

[Dalkowski110]

gbdmets...how on EARTH did you come up with those stats?

Jose Reyes: .330 BA, 21 homers, 80 steals.
Paul LoDuca: .290 BA, 8 homers, 85 RBI
Carlos Beltran: .335 BA, 40 homers, 125 RBI
Carlos Delgado: .320 BA, 35 homers, 115 RBI
David Wright: .325 BA, 35 homers, 130 RBI
Moises Alou: .295 BA, 15 homers, 70 RBI (if healthy)
Shawn Green: .260 BA, 12 homers, 70 RBI
Jose Valentin: .240 BA, 15 homers, 50 RBI

Rotation:
-Tom Glavine 14-9, 3.90 ERA
-Orlando Hernandez 13-6, 4.30 ERA
-John Maine 15-5, 3.95 ERA
-Oliver Perez 14-4, 3.65 ERA
-Pedro Martinez (post-return) 4-1 2.89 ERA

[moebarguy]

Jose Reyes -- .295 BA, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 120 R, 65 SB
Paul LoDuca -- .290 BA, 6 HR, 50 RBI, 70 R, 2 SB
Carlos Beltran -- .285 BA, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 115 R, 20 SB
Carlos Delgado -- .290 BA, 35 HR, 115 RBI, 85 R, 0 SB
David Wright -- .305 BA, 30 HR, 115 RBI, 100 R, 20 SB
Moises Alou -- .300 BA, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 60 R, 3 SB
Shawn Green -- .270 BA, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 70 R, 1 SB
Jose Valentin -- .245 BA, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 55 R, 5 SB

Tom Glavine -- 4.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 14 W, 5.2 DOM
Orlando Hernandez -- 4.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 12 W, 8.2 DOM
John Maine -- 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 12 W, 6.8 DOM
Oliver Perez -- 4.75 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 10 W, 9.0 DOM
Mike Pelfrey -- 4.35 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 6 W, 7.6 DOM
Pedro Martinez -- 3.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6 W, 8.9 DOM

look for a lot of bullpen wins...

[freshprince85]

Jose Reyes -- .320 BA, 22 HR, 85 RBI, 70 SB (-> MVP if the Mets make it to the Playoffs)
Paul LoDuca -- .285 BA, 5 HR, 65 RBI, 3 SB
Carlos Beltran -- .300 BA, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 28 SB
Carlos Delgado -- .285 BA, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 0 SB
David Wright -- .315 BA, 40 HR, 135 RBI, 24 SB
Moises Alou -- .290 BA, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 4 SB
Shawn Green -- .270 BA, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 2 SB
Jose Valentin -- .245 BA, 9 HR, 47 RBI, 6 SB (Jesus ...)

Tom Glavine -- 4.15 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 15 W
Orlando Hernandez -- 4.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 16 W
John Maine -- 4.30 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 15 W
Oliver Perez -- 4.80 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 12 W
Mike Pelfrey -- 4.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7 W
Philip Humber -- 4.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9 W

[Joltin Joe Giradio]

For the projected Opening Day Lineup:

Loduca: .278 4 HR 42 RBI 67 R
Delgado .270 30 HR 107 RBI 87 R
Valentine .242 9 HR 28 RBI 20 R
Reyes .303 13 HR 69 RBI 113 R
Wright .298 28 HR 110 RBI 92 R
Alou .292 17 HR 53 RBI 40 R
Beltran .280 34 HR 102 RBI 114 R
Green .252 15 HR 57 RBI 49 R

Pitchers are tough to predict... These are all likely to be well off.

Glavine 14-8 3.92 ERA 1.39 WHIP
Hernandez 5-5 4.13 ERA 1.41 WHIP
Maine 12-10 4.02 ERA 1.33 WHIP
O Perez 10-9 3.79 ERA 1.42 WHIP
Park 7-9 4.55 ERA 1.51 WHIP
Pelfrey 4-4 4.77 ERA 1.36 WHIP
-----------

EDIT: Dal, are you serious? .335 for Beltran?

I guess it fits the bullish nature of the other ppl's predictions...

PS, in case anyone misunderstands, "bullish" as in optimistic.

[Dalkowski110]

It's actually pretty hard to take that specific criticism from someone who has him batting 8th...or expects 28 RBI's from Valentin BUT ALSO 20 runs scored (uhh...).

[Joltin Joe Giradio]

Yeesh, the Beltran question is not a criticism. Just asking.

Also, my players are listed in position order, from catcher to RF, i.e. from 2 to 9 on the scorecard... It's not a "lineup" in the sense of batting order. Also x2, I am just projecting Valentin to be platooned or lose his job. Nowhere did the thread starter say the projection has to be for a player having a certain number of AB's. If a player plays 150 games, he's gonna have more than 30 RBI.

I guess maybe I should've made it exceedingly clear, but I didn't think it was necessary. After all, I had Loduca at 1, followed by Delgado 2 and Valentin 3...

[Dalkowski110]

As I look back on it, I think .320 was more realistic to Beltran. Not sure why it didn't immediately click that you didn't list them ina lineup, but I see that now. On the other hand, who do we platoon Valentin with? That's what I'd really like to hear. Anderson Hernandez? Ruben Gotay?

[concept2complex]

I feel Anderson Hernandez can really make a splash this year. He's playing pheomenal over in the Dom. League and the latter of the second half he started getting more comfortable at the plate. I wont be surprised if he will be our everyday starter by the All-star break.

[Joltin Joe Giradio]

I think, or at least I hope, that Easley will platoon at second. That platoon combo would be pretty good offensively, especially for the bottom of the lineup.

[Dalkowski110]

"I feel Anderson Hernandez can really make a splash this year. He's playing pheomenal over in the Dom. League"

How does that matter? Winter Ball is horrible indicator of how a MLB player will play. Willie Mays stank at it, and Julio Gotay (Ruben's uncle) was masterful at it, but stank in the Majors.

"I think, or at least I hope, that Easley will platoon at second."

I think it's you that's this time overestimating a player. "Strikes Out" Easley (what we Tiger fans called him when he played for for us) is a heck of a lot worse than Jose Valentin...you have to have seen the guy to get a gauge on his horrendous pitch judgement and his wild swing. That said, I think he'd be a good, cheap backup.

[AutographCollector]

Geez! With all of your predictions our pitching staff is going to s*ck this year! Era's all over 4.00!? :mad: :mad:

[moebarguy]

Geez! With all of your predictions our pitching staff is going to s*ck this year! Era's all over 4.00!? :mad: :mad:

Who were you referring to?

[Westlake]

gbdmets...how on EARTH did you come up with those

Carlos Beltran: .335 BA, 40 homers, 125 RBI
Carlos Delgado: .320 BA, 35 homers, 115 RBI
David Wright: .325 BA, 35 homers, 130 RBI
Moises Alou: .295 BA, 15 homers, 70 RBI (if healthy)


Rotation:
-Tom Glavine 14-9, 3.90 ERA
-Orlando Hernandez 13-6, 4.30 ERA
-John Maine 15-5, 3.95 ERA
-Oliver Perez 14-4, 3.65 ERA
-Pedro Martinez (post-return) 4-1 2.89 ERA

How on earth did you come up with those numbers. How many games are you predicting they win? 115?

Thats what, .050 higher than Beltran's career average?

I dont see how you critisize everyone else's selections, then at the same time have Oliver Perez practically cuttins his ERA from last season in half and projecting him to be the ace of the staff (since Pedro wont be around for a good chunk of the season).

[Dalkowski110]

"How many games are you predicting they win? 115?"

97.

"Thats what, .050 higher than Beltran's career average?"

He either had a career year last year or is entering his peak. I tend to think it's the latter.

"I dont see how you critisize everyone else's selections, then at the same time have Oliver Perez practically cuttins his ERA from last season in half and projecting him to be the ace of the staff (since Pedro wont be around for a good chunk of the season)."

Why not? Perez is the great unknown. If fixed, he could very well do BETTER than my projections. Lord knows, he certainly has more raw talent than any other pitcher on the team.

[Joltin Joe Giradio]

What overestimating? I never said Easley is any good. It's just that he is less uesless against southpaws than a righty batting Valentin (sub 600 OPS for his career vs. LHP).

[Westlake]

Why not? Perez is the great unknown. If fixed, he could very well do BETTER than my projections. Lord knows, he certainly has more raw talent than any other pitcher on the team.

He has more talent than Pedro Martinez?

[Dalkowski110]

"He has more talent than Pedro Martinez?"

Non-injured starting pitcher. :)

"It's just that he is less useless against southpaws than a righty batting Valentin"

Really?

Let's take the past five *full* seasons for Valentin. In fact, let's take Valentin's WORST full season (2004). Now, let's take Easley's BEST year since 2000 (he's only played one full season since then, and it was arguable at that), which was also 2004. Valentin's splits against lefties were positively anemic in 2004, those being .191/.262/.404. Easley during the same year managed, against lefthanded pitchers, a .149/.245/.287 split. How is that less useless?

[Joltin Joe Giradio]

Fine, lets take a look at each player's OPS against lefties in the last 5 years. Starting in 06 and going backwards. The number of AB's are in parenthesis.

Valentin
644 (96)
890 (19)
666 (136)
386 (107)
465 (46)

Easley
763 (106)
1115 (51)
532 (52)
447 (38)
892 (67)

And now we take a look at their career splits against lefties.
Easley 755 OPS (1369 AB)
Valentin 594 OPS (1160)

Case closed.

[Dalkowski110]

Case NOT closed.

I would say that career stats, in this case, are nearly useless. Easley's big run from 1997-2001 as a full-time player helps him. Valentin's status as a reserve who blossoms late in his career hurts him. No, let's look at what these guys did in the past five years, nothing else.

You correctly point out the two players' OPS. That's nice and good, but Easley was always more of a slugger than Valentin. That's what the "S" in "OPS" means. So why not look to something a little more fair...OBP, which is just getting on base.

From 2006 back to 2002, Jose Valentin. At-bats have already been stated.
.294 in 2006
.417 in 2005
.262 in 2004
.190 in 2003
.204 in 2002

And now, Damion Easley...
.339 in 2006
.390 in 2005
.245 in 2004
.184 in 2003
.370 in 2002

With the exception of 2002, Easley isn't much better (he plays as a reserve in 2006). In fact, save for last year, he's been worse. I don't care if a guy like Valentin or Easley hits for power...I just want them to get on base. And Valentin has demonstrated that he can do that better than Easley over the past five years. If Valentin can hit lefties AT ALL, I don't want him platooning with Easley. We don't have the Damion Easley that once was an All-Star for the Tigers. We have a weak player on par with Chris Woodward, only older and hopefully less injury-prone.

[Joltin Joe Giradio]

Case NOT closed.

I would say that career stats, in this case, are nearly useless. Easley's big run from 1997-2001 as a full-time player helps him. Valentin's status as a reserve who blossoms late in his career hurts him. No, let's look at what these guys did in the past five years, nothing else.

You correctly point out the two players' OPS. That's nice and good, but Easley was always more of a slugger than Valentin. That's what the "S" in "OPS" means. So why not look to something a little more fair...OBP, which is just getting on base.

From 2006 back to 2002, Jose Valentin. At-bats have already been stated.
.294 in 2006
.417 in 2005
.262 in 2004
.190 in 2003
.204 in 2002

And now, Damion Easley...
.339 in 2006
.390 in 2005
.245 in 2004
.184 in 2003
.370 in 2002

With the exception of 2002, Easley isn't much better (he plays as a reserve in 2006). In fact, save for last year, he's been worse. I don't care if a guy like Valentin or Easley hits for power...I just want them to get on base. And Valentin has demonstrated that he can do that better than Easley over the past five years. If Valentin can hit lefties AT ALL, I don't want him platooning with Easley. We don't have the Damion Easley that once was an All-Star for the Tigers. We have a weak player on par with Chris Woodward, only older and hopefully less injury-prone.

If Easley's OBP was superior but his OPS was inferior, you would have pointed to Easley's crappier OPS as "evidence" that Valentin was better vs. lefties. Most analysts today value OBP as the better indicator of a player's worth since it takes into account BOTH OBP and SLG. In your words, because Easley was more a "slugger" than Valentin (which isn't even true if you paid any attention to their career numbers), then his OPS advantage is moot. LOL!

[Dalkowski110]

"If Easley's OBP was superior but his OPS was inferior, you would have pointed to Easley's crappier OPS as "evidence" that Valentin was better vs. lefties."

Wow, now you know things about me that not even I don't...okay...

"(which isn't even true if you paid any attention to their career numbers)"

It is if you pay attention to the last five years of each player's career vs. lefthanded pitching...Easley can rip extra-base hits and homeruns better vs. lefthanded pitching better than Valentin. Great. BTW, you also evidently didn't pay any attention whatsoever to the whole part about "disregarding career numbers" because of Easley's decline since 2001. Or to their SLG percentages.

"Most analysts today value OBP as the better indicator of a player's worth since it takes into account BOTH OBP and SLG."

First off, you must mean OPS. Second off, then why do Bill James and Rob Neyer, who are two top analysts, post stat lines (AVG/OPB/SLG) rather than OPS when referring to a player?

You need to learn how to lose an argument better...

[Joltin Joe Giradio]

You need to relax, bro. Your ego is bigger than that of any other posters here.

It's my typo. I meant to type OPS of course. I didn't get high and mighty when you made a worse oversight when you couldn't even tell that a list of players with Loduca at 1, Delgado at 2, Beltran at 7 etc. isn't a batting order.

Second, lets go back some posts and guess which stat you referenced first for evidence that Valentin > Easley vs. lefties. Was it OBP? Nope. AVG? Nope.

What a surprise, OPS. It is only after your claim was disproven that you then switched so you don't have to look like you were wrong.

Easley hitting for power against lefties while Valetin cannot is a good thing. That's why teams platoon players in the first place!

Neither Valentin nor Easley should spend much time batting near the top of the order, so take it easy on OBP vs. southpaws, which Valentin doesn't even have good numbers at.
-----

EDIT: corrected 4th paragraph to say OPS. Made the same typo again

[Dalkowski110]

"Your ego is bigger than that of any other posters here."

How about proving THAT?

"It's my typo. I meant to type OPS of course. I didn't get high and mighty when you made a worse oversight when you couldn't even tell that a list of players with Loduca at 1, Delgado at 2, Beltran at 7 etc. isn't a batting order."

Nor did I. I just pointed out your typo. I also skimmed that list incredibly fast.

"Second, lets go back some posts and guess which stat you referenced first for evidence that Valentin > Easley vs. lefties. Was it OBP? Nope. AVG? Nope.

What a surprise, OBP. It is only after your claim was disproven that you then switched so you don't have to look like you were wrong."

Show me. And yeah, I know you made another typo, too.

"Easley hitting for power against lefties while Valetin cannot is a good thing. That's why teams platoon players in the first place!"

Duh...except the guy can't hit for average, either. The point is, they're both pretty weak. And why replace a weak player who plays regularly with another weak player who doesn't?

[Joltin Joe Giradio]

LOL. My bad. I made the same typo again in haste. Didn't want my GF catching me posting on a baseball forum again. I editted my last post.
-----------

Rather than getting into a finger pointing contest over the internet, which yields no winners but two losers, against some dude I don't know and won't ever meet, I am just going to post each player's year by year OPS vs. LHP and let everyone who cares (the all 3 of you) decide for yourselves whether Easley should become Valentin's platoon partner by virtue of being the better hitter vs. lefties. This is the last I will say on this E vs. V matter.

Easley (starting from 06 and going backwards): 764, 1115, 532, 447, 892, 712, 781, 740, 797, 740, 927, 683, 593, 918, 622

Valentin (again, from 06 and going backwards): 599*, 891**, 666, 386, 465, 683, 673, 674, 584, 615, 679, 389, 419, 701 (19 AB)

* excludes one lefthanded AB vs. LHP. In this AB he homered. I am too lazy to do the calculation to get the total OPS, you can do so if you like.

**all a LH batter, as he gave up switch-hitting for one season in 05.

[Dalkowski110]

"Didn't want my GF catching me posting on a baseball forum again."

If you are indeed insinuating I don't have a girlfriend (and I do) by saying that I post here often, aren't you by default insinuating the same of EVERYONE who posts here often?

"(the all 3 of you)"

Valentin, Easley, and myself? Actually, wouldn't that be an unintentional compliment?

I'll grant you, though, one other thing we both overlooked. They're both good fielders. Here's Valentin's career fielding stats and range factor vs. League Adjusted Average (these being fielding stats and not hitting stats, career numbers DO factor in)...
.988 FP vs. .982 LgAA FP, 4.89 RF vs. 4.39 LgAA RF

And Easley?

.984 FP vs. .980 LgAA FP, 4.68 RF vs. 4.35 LgAA RF

The fielding percentages vs. LgAA are virtually identical. That gives Valentin a better range factor. However, I should note (in Easley's defense) that inevitably, the more games you play in, the lower your range factor is. While Easley is probably not AS good as Valentin as a second baseman, he's ALMOST as good. I still don't expect a full blown platoon, especially since Easley hasn't played regularly since 2001. But I could see him being Valentin's caddy and getting late-inning at-bats.

[Joltin Joe Giradio]

What is your problem? You get personally insulted at everything. I am just telling you that I am rushing to post a lot of the times, so I sometimes can't double check what I wrote before I hit the Submit Reply button.

I don't care if you have a girlfriend or not. I don't care about you personally at all. And this is not an insult. Just a fact. You shouldn't give a crap about me personally either.

[Sabes87]

Dalko you do need to chill bro...he's not saying you know absolutely nothing about baseball, he just thinks wed be better with Easley


Can't all of us Met fans just get along? :-)

[Joltin Joe Giradio]

This NL East looks like it will be really tight. Any of the 4 teams (excluding WAS) can finish anywhere from 1st to 4th. It's gonna come down to which team gets the most unexpected production (young'uns breaking out and vets having career seasons) and the least injuries.

I am picking ATL to win, PHI 2nd, and the Mets for 3rd.

[Dalkowski110]

I'd say Mets, PHI, then ATL. Aside from Smoltz, James, and possibly Hudson, Atlanta doesn't have much of a rotation. Not to mention I don't have much faith in the Thorman/Wilson platoon at first. Prado will probably work out at second, but he's also completely untested.

[Joltin Joe Giradio]

For the projected Opening Day Lineup:

Loduca: .278 4 HR 42 RBI 67 R
Delgado .270 30 HR 107 RBI 87 R
Valentine .242 9 HR 28 RBI 20 R
Reyes .303 13 HR 69 RBI 113 R
Wright .298 28 HR 110 RBI 92 R
Alou .292 17 HR 53 RBI 40 R
Beltran .280 34 HR 102 RBI 114 R
Green .252 15 HR 57 RBI 49 R

Pitchers are tough to predict... These are all likely to be well off.

Glavine 14-8 3.92 ERA 1.39 WHIP
Hernandez 5-5 4.13 ERA 1.41 WHIP
Maine 12-10 4.02 ERA 1.33 WHIP
O Perez 10-9 3.79 ERA 1.42 WHIP
Park 7-9 4.55 ERA 1.51 WHIP
Pelfrey 4-4 4.77 ERA 1.36 WHIP
-----------

EDIT: Dal, are you serious? .335 for Beltran?

I guess it fits the bullish nature of the other ppl's predictions...

PS, in case anyone misunderstands, "bullish" as in optimistic.

Season's almost over, it's time to look back and see if we were right.

For the pitching, I made one good prediction haha. Glavine. Other than that, all wrong for the others.

Hitting, called Valentin losing his job, but was too generous with the numbers, had it happening later than it actually did. I guess the worst prediction was Delgado. I knew he was on his way down, but still gave him too much. For Green, too low on AVG, too high on power. Had Alou playing too many games.