Will Tim Raines get in on the First Ballot?

[The Kid]

Do you think Tim Raines will get into the Hall his first year of eligability?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Raines will not get in on the first ballot, and will lucky to get in at all.

It's unfair, but that's that way it appears.

[digglahhh]

Yeah, I don't think Raines will get on any ballot.

I think it is actually more likely that he doesn't even survive the first ballot than it is that he gets elected.

That being said, I would vote for him.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Yeah, I don't think Raines will get on any ballot.

I think it is actually more likely that he doesn't even survive the first ballot than it is that he gets elected.

That being said, I would vote for him.

I agree with all of this. Sadly. Raines will give Lou Whitaker and Ted Simmons a run for the greatest "one and done" player on the HOF ballot.

[AlecBoy006]

I voted yes. And yes, he should get in.

[digglahhh]

Might as well throw Will Clark in the mix too.

[milladrive]

I don't think Raines will geti n on the first ballot, but I do, however, think he'll somehow get in before it becomes a matter for the VC.

[Colorado Express]

I don't know that he'll EVER get in (or if he deserves to).

[jalbright]

If it was up to me, he'd be inducted July 2008, but I don't think 75% of the BBWAA will agree.

Jim Albright

[dl4060]

I doubt he will get in. Had kind of a funny career. Dropped off the superstar radar after 1987, but then lasted for a long time as a good player. You really never heard a thing about him after 1987 and that will hurt him with the voters. I like him, but I doubt he gets in.

[kearns643]

It will rain on Raines...with no election into the hall. I think the stolen base is one of the most overrated stats there is. I like to think of it this way. How many times during the course of the season have you seen a player steal a base (say 2nd) and score directly after another hit. Chances are the player would have scored that inning because of other factors so the SB becomes then another event. This is one of the reasons that the "defensive indifference" rule was placed...to keep the padding of the stats down.

Another thought on Raines too...his OBP was never really high...and another 50 points in that direction...say 100-120 walks a season and he would have then been a real threat.

[BoofBonser26]

I actually think that the class is so weak in '08 that Raines might actually get in as a squeaker. 75.8%, or something extremely close. It's either him or Jim Rice for position players, basically.

[AMG]

I have serious doubts about him getting in on the first ballot.

[digglahhh]

It will rain on Raines...with no election into the hall. I think the stolen base is one of the most overrated stats there is. I like to think of it this way. How many times during the course of the season have you seen a player steal a base (say 2nd) and score directly after another hit. Chances are the player would have scored that inning because of other factors so the SB becomes then another event. This is one of the reasons that the "defensive indifference" rule was placed...to keep the padding of the stats down.

Another thought on Raines too...his OBP was never really high...and another 50 points in that direction...say 100-120 walks a season and he would have then been a real threat.

.385 over a 10,000+ PAs is pretty good, especially when you have incredible speed.

Raines not only stole a ton of bases, but was rarely thrown out. Defensive indifference is only really invoked in the last inning of games when the runner would not account for either the tying or winning run. It is not a mechanism to counter stat padding. And, furthermore, the runners aren't trying to PAD their stats by going, more often than not they are trying to get out of a double play situation.

[KCGHOST]

The BBWAA is usually very good at identifying the blue chip HoFers, but they (as a group) have no idea who Tim Raines is. His career went completely below their radar.

[Freakshow]

The BBWAA is usually very good at identifying the blue chip HoFers, but they (as a group) have no idea who Tim Raines is. His career went completely below their radar.
See: Gary Carter

[Erik Bedard]

Raines was my dad's favorite player growing up, and I remember his son playing for the Orioles. IMO, he should get in, but probably won't, and definitely not first-ballot.

[brett]

I doubt he will get in. Had kind of a funny career. Dropped off the superstar radar after 1987, but then lasted for a long time as a good player. You really never heard a thing about him after 1987 and that will hurt him with the voters. I like him, but I doubt he gets in.

Same problem as Gossage, he had been a star and hung around at a valuable level for several seasons after he had faded.

He's better than Lou Brock in almost every way.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Same problem as Gossage, he had been a star and hung around at a valuable level for several seasons after he had faded.

He's better than Lou Brock in almost every way.

I consider Brock to have had the better career than Raines. Brock was more durable, and his career lasted longer. Raines had far more nagging injuries in his thirties than Brock did. Raines was, pretty much, hanging on after age 35, while Brock was a regular straight to the end at age 40, with his age 40 season being a very good one. Had Raines been able to stay in the lineup after age 35, as Brock did, he'd probably be a slam-dunk, but that didn't happen, and that's something his candidacy will have to overcome.

[KCGHOST]

See: Gary Carter


Do you have a point with this?? Carter was a media darling from the get-go.

[Fuzzy Bear]

One thing Raines MAY have going for him is the fact that he was an Expo, and his greatest years were as an Expo. The Expos are consigned to history now, and they will produce no more HOFers, execpt MAYBE Andre Dawson. It is POSSIBLE that the desire to remember an Expo, for history's sake, may work for Raines. He was greater than Dawson, IMO, and I think that the writers believe he was as well (although you'd think they'd pick Gossage over Sutter).

[yanks0714]

No, I don't think Raines will get in on the first ballot. I sincerely hope he gets in eventually. I agree with a number of the posters who said the writers don't know who he was and/or what he accomplished.

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned the comps to Rickey Henderson. Tim Raines is direct contemp of Henderson's and I fear the voters will say, "Well, he wasn't as good as Rickey....".

[538280]

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned the comps to Rickey Henderson. Tim Raines is direct contemp of Henderson's and I fear the voters will say, "Well, he wasn't as good as Rickey....".

I agree. I have heard writers use logic like that for a number of players....it just makes me want to slam my head against the wall. Rickey Henderson is a no questions asked first ballot HOFer. He is not and has never been the standard of the HOF. Because Tim Raines is not as good as Rickey Henderson does not disqualify him for the HOF! Tim Raines was right below Rickey as a leadoff man on on his own value alone (THAT is what you should focus on, not comparisons with others) is fully qualfied for the HOF. Though, again, the writers' interpreation of what makes baseball players valuable is also shoddy and will probalby hurt Raines.

[538280]

One thing Raines MAY have going for him is the fact that he was an Expo, and his greatest years were as an Expo. The Expos are consigned to history now, and they will produce no more HOFers, execpt MAYBE Andre Dawson. It is POSSIBLE that the desire to remember an Expo, for history's sake, may work for Raines. He was greater than Dawson, IMO, and I think that the writers believe he was as well (although you'd think they'd pick Gossage over Sutter).

I seriously doubt that they think Raines is better than Dawson. I've been to Montreal, I've seen an Expos game, at least up there Dawson is remembered as a better player than Raines. This is not right, Raines has SUCH better skill for getting on base than Dawson (his OPS+ is higher and it's OBP driven while Dawson's is totally SLG driven), and he also has 800 steals at a better percentage than almost anyone. He is clearly a better offensive player than Dawson....

As for your point about him being an Expo helping him, perhaps he'll draw one or two sentimental votes like that but I doubt it will be anymore than that. I think his being an Expo will ultimately hurt him more than help him because while he was active he was in obscurity and didn't get many people pushing him as one of the best in the game (which he should have had). IMO he was the best player in the NL after Mike Schmidt's period of dominance, in the mid 80s.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I agree. I have heard writers use logic like that for a number of players....it just makes me want to slam my head against the wall. Rickey Henderson is a no questions asked first ballot HOFer. He is not and has never been the standard of the HOF. Because Tim Raines is not as good as Rickey Henderson does not disqualify him for the HOF! Tim Raines was right below Rickey as a leadoff man on on his own value alone (THAT is what you should focus on, not comparisons with others) is fully qualfied for the HOF. Though, again, the writers' interpreation of what makes baseball players valuable is also shoddy and will probalby hurt Raines.

Raines suffers from career truncation. One of the ways Raines' career was truncated was when the Expos decided to make him their #3 hitter, moving him out of the leadoff spot. In Raines' case, this was a very real position shift, and one that negatively impacted his career. Moving Raines down in the order minimized his base stealing and base running skills, and reduced his runs scored. I suspect that it also confused Raines; having almost been born for the role of a star leadoff hitter, he was shifted to being a pretty good #3 hitter.

But what really hurt Raines was his inability to stay in the lineup regularly after age 35. That was his big problem. If he could have done that, he could have given 3,000 hits a run, and Raines was great enough to not need 3K, only to come close. Closer than he got. Raines was a great player, but I doubt he'll get in. Sad.

[mtortolero]

The problem with Raines is that writers loves vote by players with some milestones in their pockets (3000 hits, 500 hrs, 500 2B, 1700 runs or any other "magic number") and out of that ton of SB, Raines doesn´t have that kind of figures voters loves to see in a HOF. Brock becomes a lock hitting +3000 hits inclusive having no more value as player than Raines.