Todd Helton deal in works

[ElHalo]

ESPN is reporting a deal in the works that would send Todd Helton to the Red Sox, potentially in return for Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, and others. Boston reportedly wants to send Matt Clement in the deal, but I can't imagine that possibly working (Doesn't he have debilitating asthma? Sure that would go over well in Denver). It would give Boston one heck of a lineup.

[Sean Casey]

Helton for Youk and Lowell? Who would play 3B for the Red Sox? Or maybe Theo figures that since they don't have a second baseman, they might as well not have a third baseman either, just to balance things out.

[Johnny Evers]

Helton for Youk and Lowell? Who would play 3B for the Red Sox? Or maybe Theo figures that since they don't have a second baseman, they might as well not have a third baseman either, just to balance things out.

Greatest post yet today.


I don't really like it. Unless Clement goes, which seems impossible, this deal wouldn't do much for the Sox. Helton is a good hitter, but his numbers away from Coors last year weren't really any better than Youk's or Lowell's.

They don't need another hole at third base - Pedroia at 2nd is another trouble.

[monkey333]

The first I heard was Helton to Boston for pitching prospects(Hansen, Declarmen, etc.) but if they're getting rid of Youkilis, Lowell, etc. for just Helton it doesn't seem bad. Helton's been in decline for the past three years. Who knows, seems like there's always Todd Helton trade rumors that never happen.

[Johnny Evers]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6414656?MSNHPHMA

The Red Sox already have spent a combined $209 million this season on right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka, shortstop Julio Lugo and right fielder J.D. Drew. However, the revenue that the Sox expect to generate from the addition of Matsuzaka could enable the club to absorb Helton and any luxury-tax penalties it might incur.

Helton, a left-handed hitter, could hit second in the Red Sox's batting order or as low as seventh, with the Sox sticking a right-handed hitter such as Kevin Youkilis or switch-hitter such as Jason Varitek in the sixth spot behind the left-right-left combination of David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez and Drew.

The Sox currently are set at first with Youkilis, but Helton had a higher on-base/slugging percentage than Youkilis in 2006 even though he was slowed by a serious stomach ailment. Helton also suffers from back trouble, one reason that the Angels balked at trading for him at the winter meetings.

If the Sox acquired Helton, they possibly could move Youkilis to third and trade Mike Lowell, who is entering the last year of his contract. The addition of Helton would not address the team's need for a closer; sending Lowell to a team such as the Padres could bring relief help.

It also is conceivable that Lowell could be included in the Helton deal, enabling the Rockies to move third baseman Garrett Atkins to first. Two sources, however, said that Lowell was not in the trade, leaving the Rockies with the possibility of shifting right fielder Brad Hawpe to first and also using John Mabry at the position.

Helton will account for $16.6 million of the Rockies' projected $55 million payroll next season. Owner Charlie Monfort acknowledged the possibility of trading him last week in an interview with the Post. Helton has said that he is open to the idea.

Ken Rosenthal is a senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com.

The Red Sox already have spent a combined $209 million this season on right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka, shortstop Julio Lugo and right fielder J.D. Drew. However, the revenue that the Sox expect to generate from the addition of Matsuzaka could enable the club to absorb Helton and any luxury-tax penalties it might incur.

Helton, a left-handed hitter, could hit second in the Red Sox's batting order or as low as seventh, with the Sox sticking a right-handed hitter such as Kevin Youkilis or switch-hitter such as Jason Varitek in the sixth spot behind the left-right-left combination of David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez and Drew.

The Sox currently are set at first with Youkilis, but Helton had a higher on-base/slugging percentage than Youkilis in 2006 even though he was slowed by a serious stomach ailment. Helton also suffers from back trouble, one reason that the Angels balked at trading for him at the winter meetings.

If the Sox acquired Helton, they possibly could move Youkilis to third and trade Mike Lowell, who is entering the last year of his contract. The addition of Helton would not address the team's need for a closer; sending Lowell to a team such as the Padres could bring relief help.

It also is conceivable that Lowell could be included in the Helton deal, enabling the Rockies to move third baseman Garrett Atkins to first. Two sources, however, said that Lowell was not in the trade, leaving the Rockies with the possibility of shifting right fielder Brad Hawpe to first and also using John Mabry at the position.

Helton will account for $16.6 million of the Rockies' projected $55 million payroll next season. Owner Charlie Monfort acknowledged the possibility of trading him last week in an interview with the Post. Helton has said that he is open to the idea.

Ken Rosenthal is a senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com.

It looks like Youkilis would stay, at the least.

Helton is only going downhill, and I'm very worried about that back injury. Also, Helton's contract runs until he's 39 - I doubt he'll be very productive then, let alone the next 3 years.

[DoubleX]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6414656?MSNHPHMA

Helton is only going downhill, and I'm very worried about that back injury. Also, Helton's contract runs until he's 39 - I doubt he'll be very productive then, let alone the next 3 years.

And he's owed a lot of money in the remaining years of the contract. There's also the concern that his numbers away from Coors Field are much lower than his numbers at Coors Field, especially in the last two years - in 2006, his away OPS was just 0.781.

However, more than anything else, I'm wondering where the Sox got all this money this offseason - 70 million for Drew, 36 million for Lugo, 100+ total on Matsuzaka, and now possibily adding Helton's huge contract. There's also the 2 year, 4 million contract for Alex Cora that I really don't understand. And in all cases, the money is not only exorbitant, but risky considering the player. Drew has the injury and the supposed personality issues; Lugo should be decent enough, but that's a lot of money considering his history; Matsuzaka should be good, but again, that's a lot of money for a player that hasn't pitched here; and Helton's best years appear to be behind him and he won't have Coors Field anymore to inflate his numbers. The Red Sox appear to be going with a high risk/high reward philosophy. I feel they did the same last year, although not to such an expensive degree. The first half showed the high reward, while the second half showed why there was a high risk.

[Old Sweater]

Just be my luck to lose Helton to the Red Sox and see him have a great year esp. against the Yankees.

Remember that Helton also had that bad stomach ailment that sapped him of his strenght last season.

[EvanAparra]

Helton for Youk and Lowell? Who would play 3B for the Red Sox? Or maybe Theo figures that since they don't have a second baseman, they might as well not have a third baseman either, just to balance things out.

They have a 2nd baseman. Yeesh, with lines like this, i'm surprised a rookie ever gets a chance nowadays. Do we need an all-star at every position to make you happy?

[DoubleX]

They have a 2nd baseman. Yeesh, with lines like this, i'm surprised a rookie ever gets a chance nowadays. Do we need an all-star at every position to make you happy?

Funny, I wonder that same thing about lots of Yankee fans. It's funny how perspective goes out of the window. I think we're at the point now where there's not too much difference between the Yankees and Red Sox in terms of management philosophy and fan expectations.

[hellborn]

They have a 2nd baseman. Yeesh, with lines like this, i'm surprised a rookie ever gets a chance nowadays. Do we need an all-star at every position to make you happy?
I'm pretty excited about Pedroia...at least he has the potential to improve. And not make $10million next year...

[SwissRedSoxFan]

Youkilis will stay for sure. It makes absolutely no sense to move him, after they took so long to bring him from the minors to the MLB. Lowell and Hansen for Helton. Yes I would do this. Cause Lowell has just one year left and Hansen, I'm not sure about his talent.

[Williamsburg2599]

Youkilis will stay for sure. It makes absolutely no sense to move him, after they took so long to bring him from the minors to the MLB. Lowell and Hansen for Helton. Yes I would do this. Cause Lowell has just one year left and Hansen, I'm not sure about his talent.
Agreed, but no more than Lowell and Hanson. We have a good minor league system going right now and I wouldn't want to trade away yet another future superstar like the Soxs have done on several occasions in the past. As for Pedoria, I feel fine with him starting at 2nd this year.

[Mattingly]

The first I heard was Helton to Boston for pitching prospects(Hansen, Declarmen, etc.) but if they're getting rid of Youkilis, Lowell, etc. for just Helton it doesn't seem bad. Helton's been in decline for the past three years. Who knows, seems like there's always Todd Helton trade rumors that never happen.
I could see Lowell being included, but Youk? If traded, I thought that Youk would shift over to 3B, and Helton could play 1B.

Am I the only one suspicious that the Rockies were only interested in this trade once his skills eroded? Seems like a larger version of the Jeff Weaver to the Yanks deal, in that once a player's skills suffer, trade him at the tail end (and most likely more expensive, if the deal is back-loaded of the deal.

Between this and JD Drew, I think that the Red Sox are taking a few risks here.

[SoxSon]

I could see Lowell being included, but Youk? If traded, I thought that Youk would shift over to 3B, and Helton could play 1B.

Am I the only one suspicious that the Rockies were only interested in this trade once his skills eroded? Seems like a larger version of the Jeff Weaver to the Yanks deal, in that once a player's skills suffer, trade him at the tail end (and most likely more expensive, if the deal is back-loaded of the deal.

Between this and Henson, I think that the Red Sox are taking a few risks here.

I would never be in favor of it if the deal included Youkilis.

By the way, do you mean "Hansen"? As far as I know, the Red Sox have no connection to the Jim Henson estate.

[Mattingly]

I would never be in favor of it if the deal included Youkilis.

By the way, do you mean "Hansen"? As far as I know, the Red Sox have no connection to the Jim Henson estate.
More like mixing up ex-Yankees (current NFL QB) and baseball players. Instead of JD Drew (as I'd corrected myself), I'd thought of him, but confused him with Drew Henson. Thus ... the error. Call it at E3 at 1B. :D

I also couldn't understand this from Boston's perspective. They'd get Youkilis to play 1B there and Lowell to play 3B. I'm not sure how Colorado's 3B situation is, but what's in it for Boston then?

I could see RS fans being willing to part with Lowell before Youk. As to the prospects of Delcarmen and Craig Hansen, would you be willing to trade them? I remember Boston make a few hi-profile trades such as acquiring Crisp for Hanley Ramirez, amongst others, but I'm not too thrilled with sending away some of my best farm guys.

[EvanAparra]

I would never be in favor of it if the deal included Youkilis.

By the way, do you mean "Hansen"? As far as I know, the Red Sox have no connection to the Jim Henson estate.

Same here. I'd start a petiton asking for Theo's job if Youk was included. I'd absolutely LOVE this trade if it was for only Lowell and Hansen... shoot, throw Tavarez in there too. But im guessing thats not what Colorado wants... I'm thinking they want Lowell, Hansen, and DelCarmen --- or maybe Ellsbury instead of either Hansen or DelCarmen. I really hope we dont give up MDC or Jacoby.

Helton going to 1st and Youk moving back to third would make me very happy. As well as getting rid of Tavarez.

[cubsfan1073]

I think if the Rockies trade Todd Helton now, then that would be a terrific move for them. They are a franchise on the rise and need to get younger players who don't cost as much. Right now, Helton's stock is the highest it will ever be and they need to get what they can for him now.

[Old Sweater]

I think if the Rockies trade Todd Helton now, then that would be a terrific move for them. They are a franchise on the rise and need to get younger players who don't cost as much. Right now, Helton's stock is the highest it will ever be and they need to get what they can for him now.

What good is good young prospects when the Monforts won't pay them what their worth when they become free agents?

55mil with Heltons 16 mil. is sort of a low budget. Of course the Monforts are going to dump as much of Heltons salary as they can, what else can you expect from the owners of a slaughter house.

[cosmo34]

Same here. I'd start a petiton asking for Theo's job if Youk was included. I'd absolutely LOVE this trade if it was for only Lowell and Hansen... shoot, throw Tavarez in there too. But im guessing thats not what Colorado wants... I'm thinking they want Lowell, Hansen, and DelCarmen --- or maybe Ellsbury instead of either Hansen or DelCarmen. I really hope we dont give up MDC or Jacoby.

Helton going to 1st and Youk moving back to third would make me very happy. As well as getting rid of Tavarez.


I read on ESPN of Lowell and Tavarez for Helton. Supposely the Rockies want Hansen or Delcarmen thrown in, but the Sox don't want to part with them.

I'd throw in Hansen if it took that to get the deal done. Helton to the Sox would be awesome. I'm not ready to call him "on the decline", and I think that stomach ailment took alot out of him last year. I'm not a Sox fan, but with Manny as my favorite player and Todd Helton in my Top 5 current players, I'm salivating over the thought of seeing Helton-Papi-Manny.

[BoofBonser26]

I could see RS fans being willing to part with Lowell before Youk. As to the prospects of Delcarmen and Craig Hansen, would you be willing to trade them? I remember Boston make a few hi-profile trades such as acquiring Crisp for Hanley Ramirez, amongst others, but I'm not too thrilled with sending away some of my best farm guys.
The Red Sox got Coco Crisp, David Riske, and Josh Bard for Andy Marte, Kelly Shoppach, and G. Mota.

[-Kyle-]

I would rather trade Delcarmen than Hansen. Delcarmen may seem to have better "stuff" right now but it is too easy to read. When Delcarmen was pitching, I was sitting in the infield grandstand and could tell what the pitches were going to be based on his arm movement (no exaggeration). Hansen isn't as ready, but definitely has an higher upside.

[Mattingly]

The Red Sox got Coco Crisp, David Riske, and Josh Bard for Andy Marte, Kelly Shoppach, and G. Mota.
Thanks. I was getting all kinds of wires crossed yesterday.

I'm curious, who plays 1B for Colorado if this deal goes through?

[SoxSon]

Helton going to 1st and Youk moving back to third would make me very happy. As well as getting rid of Tavarez.

Add Colorado swallowing a good chunk of Helton's salary, and I'm with you on all three of these points all the way.

[Sean Casey]

They have a 2nd baseman. Yeesh, with lines like this, i'm surprised a rookie ever gets a chance nowadays. Do we need an all-star at every position to make you happy?

I have no problem giving rookies a chance, which is what the Red Sox did with Pedroia last year. He responded by hitting somewhere around .190 with one or two home runs. Even when he was in Pawtucket, his offensive numbers weren't great (somewhere around .270, I think) so I'm not convinced that he's really ready for a starting job in the majors.

[SoxSon]

I have no problem giving rookies a chance, which is what the Red Sox did with Pedroia last year. He responded by hitting somewhere around .190 with one or two home runs. Even when he was in Pawtucket, his offensive numbers weren't great (somewhere around .270, I think) so I'm not convinced that he's really ready for a starting job in the majors.

I don't know enough about Pedroia to say one way or the other, Sean Casey, but he did only play 31 games for a team on a real bad slide at the time. Management seems to believe in him, so I guess we'll see.


Back on Helton, if he didn't struggle with his stomach ailment last season, I wonder if anyone could absolutely say he's on the decline. I know he's no kid anymore, but I think he's in store for a lift. He can pull the ball with power down the right field line, and in Fenway, that's well...close. He also hasn't had the best protection in the lineup in Colorado, either, and if they batted him second in Boston, his patience at the plate would seriously reward the team one way or the other.

[Biggtone23]

Everyone seems to be looking at this from the Red Sox point of view. If I was the Rockies I think this deal would suck. Lowell is way past his prime, all two years of it, and your getting maybe the third or fourth best pitching prospect/young pitcher in the Red Sox system for the best player in franchise history. No Thanks.

I'd hold off on trading Helton until the deadline and find someone with an injuried first basemen and fleece them. As Sox Son said with the fact that Helton was injuried last year who knows how he will bounce back this year. If he comes back and hits .300 with his usual 30 homers and 100 RBI and you take this deal you look like a complete moron. Of course if he continues to struggle and you dont make the deal your left to wonder what could have been.

I cant imagine a small or mid market team making a trade with the Red Sox or Yankees and taking the salary. This seems to make no sense to me. The reason you trade Helton is because you cant afford him so you send him to one of the richest teams in baseball for a has been and a middle reliever and you pay his salary? Surely you can find a better deal in both players and money from another mid market or small market team. Even another big market team that wil take his salary.

From what I've read the Rockies don't have a great 1B prospect in the system (they traded their top prospect, Ryan Shealy, last spring to the Royals) so other than money, which it doesn't look like they will be getting much relief from, I dont see the need for this trade.

[Old Sweater]

Thanks. I was getting all kinds of wires crossed yesterday.

I'm curious, who plays 1B for Colorado if this deal goes through?




If Lowell were part of the deal, Garrett Atkins would have to shift to first base. Another possibility is playing outfielder Brad Hawpe at first, his natural position, with Jeff Baker manning right field. Triple-A slugger Joe Koshansky is another option at first base.

[Old Sweater]

Everyone seems to be looking at this from the Red Sox point of view. If I was the Rockies I think this deal would suck. Lowell is way past his prime, all two years of it, and your getting maybe the third or fourth best pitching prospect/young pitcher in the Red Sox system for the best player in franchise history. No Thanks.

I'd hold off on trading Helton until the deadline and find someone with an injuried first basemen and fleece them. As Sox Son said with the fact that Helton was injuried last year who knows how he will bounce back this year. If he comes back and hits .300 with his usual 30 homers and 100 RBI and you take this deal you look like a complete moron. Of course if he continues to struggle and you dont make the deal your left to wonder what could have been.

I cant imagine a small or mid market team making a trade with the Red Sox or Yankees and taking the salary. This seems to make no sense to me. The reason you trade Helton is because you cant afford him so you send him to one of the richest teams in baseball for a has been and a middle reliever and you pay his salary? Surely you can find a better deal in both players and money from another mid market or small market team. Even another big market team that wil take his salary.

From what I've read the Rockies don't have a great 1B prospect in the system (they traded their top prospect, Ryan Shealy, last spring to the Royals) so other than money, which it doesn't look like they will be getting much relief from, I dont see the need for this trade.

Bingo. Thanks!

Only bright side of this trade is that Helton gets to go to a contender for a Rockie fan. The Red Sox can keep Julian and that temper of his in Boston and 1 year of Lowell, no thanks.

[Johnny Evers]

I really don't think that this move makes sense for either the side. Like Old Sweater said, the Rockies get stuck with a portion of Helton's contract as well as Hansen, who hasn't shown that he's a quality reliever, and Lowell who, while fine for the Sox, isn't a great bat.

It's even worse for the Red Sox. I can understand that dumping Lowell and Hanson for Helton might be a good thing for this coming season, but what about four, five years down the road when Helton is still under contract? Clearly his back wouldn't hold up, and he'll only be getting worse. The Red Sox team as it is would be extremely competitive, I don't understand why it needs to be shaken up with such a risky deal.

[Mattingly]

If Lowell were part of the deal, Garrett Atkins would have to shift to first base. Another possibility is playing outfielder Brad Hawpe at first, his natural position, with Jeff Baker manning right field. Triple-A slugger Joe Koshansky is another option at first base.
Thanks. If I were the Rockies, I'd want Youkilis rather than Lowell. Lowell's also an expensive player so what's the use in crying poverty if you're taking on another expensive player?

While it may not benefit them, the Red Sox FO would have to give up quality if taking a chance on someone whose slugging has been well-noted, even if on the downside.

[BoofBonser26]

Thanks. I was getting all kinds of wires crossed yesterday.

I'm curious, who plays 1B for Colorado if this deal goes through?
'Tis okay.

Ryan Shealy plays 1B and becomes the Ryan Howard of '07. Oh, wait - they dumped him last season precisely because they had Helton. :crazy

[Old Sweater]

'Tis okay.

Ryan Shealy plays 1B and becomes the Ryan Howard of '07. Oh, wait - they dumped him last season precisely because they had Helton. :crazy

Dealing Dandy O'Dowd at his best..lol

[digglahhh]

Triple-A slugger Joe Koshansky is another option at first base.

If I was the Rockies, I'd be excited to give Koshansky a shot.

[PhilWings24]

Helton for Youk and Lowell? Who would play 3B for the Red Sox? Or maybe Theo figures that since they don't have a second baseman, they might as well not have a third baseman either, just to balance things out.

they do have a second baseman. and i'm sure someone els has pointed it out by now-i'm getting a late start on this topic- but the deal is now reportedly tavarez/lowell/delcarmen or hansen for helton.

Greatest post yet today.


I don't really like it. Unless Clement goes, which seems impossible, this deal wouldn't do much for the Sox. Helton is a good hitter, but his numbers away from Coors last year weren't really any better than Youk's or Lowell's.

They don't need another hole at third base - Pedroia at 2nd is another trouble.

helton's a gold glove first baseman, and his 3 year away-from-home line (293/409/473) murders both youk and lowell.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6414656?MSNHPHMA



It looks like Youkilis would stay, at the least.

Helton is only going downhill, and I'm very worried about that back injury. Also, Helton's contract runs until he's 39 - I doubt he'll be very productive then, let alone the next 3 years.

there are several opt-out options. they cost alot, but they don't count against the cap and are little more than pocket change for the sox. he's declining, but so is lowell, and helton is much much better offensively, and the defensive gap is less than you'd think. lowell is better, but it's not a killer.

also, great all-around hitters who have great averages, power, walk rates, contact rates, and even okay speed tend to decline very gradually.

Just be my luck to lose Helton to the Red Sox and see him have a great year esp. against the Yankees.

Remember that Helton also had that bad stomach ailment that sapped him of his strenght last season.

yeah, most things i'd head about his "off" year were to the tune of 'his stomach put him in worse shape than the injury did'

Funny, I wonder that same thing about lots of Yankee fans. It's funny how perspective goes out of the window. I think we're at the point now where there's not too much difference between the Yankees and Red Sox in terms of management philosophy and fan expectations.

i have to disagree with you on management philosphy, but you're 100% irght on fan expectations. i still maintain that sox fans are very intelligent fans, but i think that part of us feels like the baseball gods owe us 6 championships in 15 years now. (and just to clear up what i'm saying about management philosphy, they have been very similar the last few years. but i still don't think 2 years of george deferring power means that he's settled down for good, and if he gets impatient things get hectic. theo has been touting the "build a solid nucleus of cheap homegrown guys so you can overpay once in a while on a great player" stuff since day 1, and has been doing it since day 1. the yankees did impress me by not going absoulutely crazy this year though)

Agreed, but no more than Lowell and Hanson. We have a good minor league system going right now and I wouldn't want to trade away yet another future superstar like the Soxs have done on several occasions in the past. As for Pedoria, I feel fine with him starting at 2nd this year.

i maintain that if you truly follow the minor leagues, you'll see that most of these "superstars" the sox dealt away were real strokes of bad luck, guys that did not seem at all special. exception being hanley ramirez (and anibal sanchez to a degree, but even he was probably only he 4th or 5th best prospectthey had), and that wasn't done by THIS management system. it was done by larry lucchino and theo fill-ins.

Thanks. I was getting all kinds of wires crossed yesterday.

I'm curious, who plays 1B for Colorado if this deal goes through?

maybe joe koshansky. don't know, really.

I have no problem giving rookies a chance, which is what the Red Sox did with Pedroia last year. He responded by hitting somewhere around .190 with one or two home runs. Even when he was in Pawtucket, his offensive numbers weren't great (somewhere around .270, I think) so I'm not convinced that he's really ready for a starting job in the majors.

305/384/426 in AAA last year, very good numbers.

he's had more extra base hits, and more walks than strikeouts over the entire course of his minor league career. he is absolutely ready to be a major-league-average player offensively (which means above average for a 2b), and is great defensively

i'll be back in a while to give my thoughts on the topic, which i have alot of lol. for now- since i've gotta go- i'll just say i'm frign shocked how little respect helton is gettign here.

[Johnny Evers]

So I take it you're for the trade, philwings?

For me it's just a matter of risk. The Red Sox already have a fantastic team - at least as talented as the one than had in 2004. So why mess it up by trading your starting third basemen, young relief pitcher, and top position prospect for an aging and overpaid first basemen who is certainly on the decline? Sure, it could potentially be a good trade. But I think the odds are against it.

[Sankhara-dukkha]

I was going to reply to this thread with my own personal opinion but Phillwings pretty much covered everything for me.

[sds416]

So I take it you're for the trade, philwings?

For me it's just a matter of risk. The Red Sox already have a fantastic team - at least as talented as the one than had in 2004. So why mess it up by trading your starting third basemen, young relief pitcher, and top position prospect for an aging and overpaid first basemen who is certainly on the decline? Sure, it could potentially be a good trade. But I think the odds are against it.

Its an interesting risk. If you think Helton has 3 good seasons left in the tank, its not a bad move by the Sox. If Helton buys you 3 seasons, thats ample time to develop someone if you have someone deeper in the system that you think has the potential. If that doesn't pan out, you go the free agent route, which they haven't been bashful in getting into lately anyway.
For the Sox, you move Tavarez and Lowell, Lowell having not much left in terms of time left on his current deal. With the market so out of whack, Lowell could command big numbers in free agency, more than the Sox want to pay him, so in 1 respect they are getting something in value for him now instead of nothing down the line. Tavarez is a pain in the butt from all accounts I've read, so losing him isn't nearly the end of the world either.

If you are the Red Sox, this is a good deal from where I sit.

[cubsfan1073]

Todd Helton has said that he will most likely okay a trade to the Red Sox and not veto it. He has a complete no trade clause, but would probably waive it if he were to be traded.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2746163

[Old Sweater]

edit, I read it wrong.

[Johnny Evers]

Tavarez is a pain in the butt from all accounts I've read, so losing him isn't nearly the end of the world either.

If you are the Red Sox, this is a good deal from where I sit.

But with the current state of the Sox bullpen, I wouldn't go about trading away veteran arms, especially Tavarez, who, while not a great relief pitcher, is capable of putting together some good innings.

[PhilWings24]

So I take it you're for the trade, philwings?

For me it's just a matter of risk. The Red Sox already have a fantastic team - at least as talented as the one than had in 2004. So why mess it up by trading your starting third basemen, young relief pitcher, and top position prospect for an aging and overpaid first basemen who is certainly on the decline? Sure, it could potentially be a good trade. But I think the odds are against it.

i sort of am, although if lowell turns into youkilis (and everything else stays the same), i'd be against it vehemently.

to adress your point, it goes back to my confusion as to why helton is getting so little respect.

everything you said is true, except this isn't just any aging, overpaid first baseman on the decline.

this is, even with the decline, bobby abreu with a better glove and much more power.

the more i look at the deal, though, the more i see what you're saying. he is a risk, and there is little reason to take many more gambles on such a talented team. but the way i see it he's a lock to be better than lowell, and youkilis will be better than both of them.

he is on the decline, but again: this is not a power pitcher who loses 5 mph on his fastball. at the age of 39, helton will more than likely still be an average player.

this is my quick summed up breakdown of the deal:
youkilis is better, and will be for 2-3 years, than either lowell or helton.
helton is slighly better for his position than lowell is, and they both seem to be declining at similar rates.
by allowing youkilis to play 3rd, you enhance his value at least slightly, as he'll be about the same player but at a weaker offensive position (most scouts/stat folk agree he's about as effecient at 3rd, defensively, as he is at 1st- above average but not outstanding)
and with helton at first, you give yourself a gold-glove quality first baseman who is very likely to have an obp of 400 and will grind up pitchers, and is likely to play almost every game.

so as far as i'm concerned, you improve very significantly at third, pretty significantly at 1st, and there's a chance that helton becomes a 300/400/500 guy (although i guess the feeling is that he could collapse as well).

the more i look at this deal though, the more i see it as just a slight improvement, after you take into account the relief staff. but with helton, you have FIVE guys who at least have a shot (only 2 or 3 would likely make it) at an OBP of 400 (manny, papi, drew, youk, and helton). and you add another hitter who makes the guys around him better by wearing down pitchers.

so i view it as a slight improvement, all things considered- offense, defense, salary, character. but 1 thing the sox front office does not get enough credit for is its success with scouting offensive players. coco crisp and edgar renteria are the only ones they've acquired who clearly failed to meet expectations, and coco has a valid excuse in his injury (i guess you could put jeremy giambi in there, but he was a bit different in that he was expected to do little and instead did nothing). so, on a scale of 1 to 10, i'd rank this deal a nothing-special 6.5, but i'm sure that if anything gets done at all, it'll change enough from now til then to make this whole analysis worthless lol.

[PhilWings24]

But with the current state of the Sox bullpen, I wouldn't go about trading away veteran arms, especially Tavarez, who, while not a great relief pitcher, is capable of putting together some good innings.

that's something i've thought about, but decided that i'm fine wwith them dealing solid arms. they have lots of solid arms. hansen, delcarmen, timlin, pineiro, donnelly, even dinardo are all decent. the thing that makes their pen such a mess is they have no one who is lights out, and only 1 person (hansen) who has given any reason for me to think has a dominant pitcher somewhere inside him. and i guess piniero has that potential, but i don't know.

they can afford to trade some average-solid pitchers, they just can't afford to trade anyone who might be an ace in the pen. luckily they don't have many of them, so that prolly own't happen lol.

[PhilWings24]

I'd hold off on trading Helton until the deadline and find someone with an injuried first basemen and fleece them. As Sox Son said with the fact that Helton was injuried last year who knows how he will bounce back this year. If he comes back and hits .300 with his usual 30 homers and 100 RBI and you take this deal you look like a complete moron. Of course if he continues to struggle and you dont make the deal your left to wonder what could have been.

i agree with mostly all of this post, except the wait- til the deadline philosophy gets tricky when the guy has 5 years left on his deal. if ryan howard goes down with an injury, the phillies have no interest in helton cus it just leads to getting fleeced again in the offseason, when every one knows you NEED to dump one of the 2, and will do it for whatever.

[plask_stirlac]

Todd Helton has seen some decline and has much lower away numbers, but that also includes adjusting, flying from Coors all the way down to pitching strongholds like AT&T and Petco.

[Mattingly]

I'm still curious why the Red Sox are taking on long-term deals. JD Drew for 5 years at $70m and Todd Helton for 6 years. Even if they pay "only" $10m/yr, that's still $60m? In 6 seasons, they can't develop or trade for a 1B prospect who can be called up?

I don't see this making much sense from Boston's viewpoint, especially if Youkilis *AND* Lowell are included. While I realize that Boston likes stocking up on big bats, some of whom wouldn't even be available if they weren't on the decline, it's like they're stockpiling on semi-damaged goods.

Not quite, but how much lower will Helton's SLG go south before there's concern in Boston? The man's a slugger, not a #2 hitter.

[PhilWings24]

Todd Helton has seen some decline and has much lower away numbers, but that also includes adjusting, flying from Coors all the way down to pitching strongholds like AT&T and Petco.

his away numbers, even during this "decline," are still great. i think they're about 280/405/470

I'm still curious why the Red Sox are taking on long-term deals. JD Drew for 5 years at $70m and Todd Helton for 6 years. Even if they pay "only" $10m/yr, that's still $60m? In 6 seasons, they can't develop or trade for a 1B prospect who can be called up?

calling it a 6 year deal is misleading. there are buyouts, although expensive ones for the rockies at least (i think they are like 10 mil, don't count against the salary cap), every year starting in like '09, i think.

I'm I don't see this making much sense from Boston's viewpoint, especially if Youkilis *AND* Lowell are included. While I realize that Boston likes stocking up on big bats, some of whom wouldn't even be available if they weren't on the decline, it's like they're stockpiling on semi-damaged goods.

not sure where on earth you heard both youkilis and lowell are involved. if youk is involved, i view it as a dumb deal. there was a rumor that it was youk or lowell, a rumor that lasted about half a day, and since then it's been very clear it's lowell and tavarez.

and what semi-damaged ggod are you talking about? for that matter, what big bats are you talking about? drew and who else?

helton is on the decline, but so is vladimir guerrero, so is manny ramirez (although he manages to surprise me every year). just

Not quite, but how much lower will Helton's SLG go south before there's concern in Boston? The man's a slugger, not a #2 hitter.

that's just the thing, he is a number 2 hitter. maybe its stuff like this that is causing people to suddenly view helton as a mediocre hitter. what's wrong with having a 300/400/470 guy? sure, it's worse than being 330/430/600, like he was for a stretch, but a 300/400/470 guy that is gold-glove-caliber in the field is an outstanding- not decent, not good, but outstanding- player. top 10 in baseball? no.

so maybe it is this prejudice that people have seen helton's gaudy power numbers, and since they have declined sharply, they assume he's a bad hitter.

over the next 5 years, you can expect him to be almost a youkilis clone offensively (although he'd probably be like 5 points worse in avg, obp, and slg), and slightly better defensively.

one thing i did like to see in an article published by the herald today though

Sources close to the Red Sox indicated the club is not only unmotivated to tinker with its roster, but also have not yet seen a proposal it would consider serious. That could change, of course, depending on how much of Helton’s remaining salary -90.1 million is due during the next six years, including a buyout in 2012 - the Rockies are willing to pay.



i like that cus i do agree this team is pretty much good as it is right now, and there is no reason to be aggressively looking to grab a big improvement.

just so you know, the general jist of the article was that beckett knows first hand that helton has had interest in the sox for a few years, and would love to play for them. here's the link http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=179709

[Charger567]

How can you say Lowell isn't a great bat? He batted .284 with 20 homers and a career high 47 doubles last season.

[Mattingly]

his away numbers, even during this "decline," are still great. i think they're about 280/405/470
I'm a little flustered as to where to paint him in offensively. Looking at his splits (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=5870&type=batting&year=2006), it's like he'll have a .571 BA, 1.524 OPS in 25 ABs at the RFK sandbox, but in 15 ABs at Busch, he'll hit .200, .474 OPS. It's like I'm seeing the difference between Superman and Clark Kent when he's not even awake.

By this, I don't know what to expect from him. That and switching leagues, coasts, altitudes, I really can't say that he'll hit .280/.405/.470 or not. Maybe, but between his stats bouncing up & down and facing new pitchers (to him), it's a tossup by my standards.
calling it a 6 year deal is misleading. there are buyouts, although expensive ones for the rockies at least (i think they are like 10 mil, don't count against the salary cap), every year starting in like '09, i think.
He was signed for 9 years, there's 6 remaining. Which existing buyout clause is there that Colorado has negotiated?
not sure where on earth you heard both youkilis and lowell are involved. if youk is involved, i view it as a dumb deal. there was a rumor that it was youk or lowell, a rumor that lasted about half a day, and since then it's been very clear it's lowell and tavarez.
If Lowell and Tavarez, I can see that happening. There were also rumors that some farm guys (Manny DelCarmen and another guy), neither of whom Boston reportedly didn't want to part with.
and what semi-damaged ggod are you talking about? for that matter, what big bats are you talking about? drew and who else?
JD Drew seems like damaged goods to me. Either damaged or semi-damaged, but while he's got a solid bat, his health is a big issue. Then again, you're talking about the team that took on Josh Beckett via trade. He also had some health issues, and he hadn't pitched over 172 innings in a season before 2006. Booston seems to like taking on a few risks.
helton is on the decline, but so is vladimir guerrero, so is manny ramirez (although he manages to surprise me every year). just
I haven't even checked out Vlad's or Manny's stats. From the past, I considered Manny the superior overall hitter to Ortiz, since he had better (more even across-the-board) splits vs LHP/RHP, day/night, from different parks, etc. He's also proven himself solid offensively. He and Pujols are truly wonderous players.
that's just the thing, he is a number 2 hitter. maybe its stuff like this that is causing people to suddenly view helton as a mediocre hitter. what's wrong with having a 300/400/470 guy? sure, it's worse than being 330/430/600, like he was for a stretch, but a 300/400/470 guy that is gold-glove-caliber in the field is an outstanding- not decent, not good, but outstanding- player. top 10 in baseball? no.
From his splits in the earlier link, he's batted more at #3 than anything else in 2006. I'm not sure about 2003-05, but he had 320 ABs batting #3, which is more than the 111 for each of #2 and #5.

*IF* he can put up .300/.400/.470 for Boston (home and away), I'd agree that he'd be a terrific addition to their lineup. However, with his stats floating around like a butterfly, I'd have to see. He'd most likely be placed ahead of Ortiz in the #2 spot. If he can get a double, then that gives the RS much more opportunity.

Here's a related article from espn.com re the Rockies' owner:

Monfort: We won't deal Helton 'for nothing' (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2747254)

[SwissRedSoxFan]

The main question is: Will Helton be able to bounce back? 200^6 he was as good as Lowell. And we have already Lowell for half the money the Rockies owe Helton.

So will Helton hit 30 HR again each season to come till his contract ends?

If Yes I would give up Lowell and a pitcher. I think the Rockies are under pression, they need the money and no other team is willing to take his huge contract not even if the Rockies pay a part of it.

Heltons numbers are in decline, so the Red Sox should have a very exact idea that Helton will bounce back.

The second question would be: Is Hansen really that good and can be the future closer. Because what he showed up to now isn't great. My opinion is still, he was pushed through the minors too quickly. Look what the Yankees do with Boston-fan Hughues. This strategy is better I think.
So if they think Hansen hasnt the stuff to make his breakout, then he could be part of the package. Otherwise The Red Sox just dont have the young players, they are willing to give up for that trade. Epstein said it quite often. The farm won't be traded.

Helton for Lowell and Hansen/Tavarez, this should be it. Otherwise forget it. I really don't know if Helton can bounce back, luckily it's not to me to know it. Hopefully he can.

[SoxSon]

By this, I don't know what to expect from him. That and switching leagues, coasts, altitudes, I really can't say that he'll hit .280/.405/.470 or not. Maybe, but between his stats bouncing up & down and facing new pitchers (to him), it's a tossup by my standards.


Given the fact that Helton hasn't had any real protection in the lineup in Colorado and the fact that almost any talent grows somewhat complacent when not playing for a contender year after year, I think that he'd murder in Fenway (assuming his stomach issues have been resolved). I also, as I said earlier, think that Pesky's pole was made for him.

[Charger567]

Looks like the deal is dead now.

[VTSoxFan]

This, the latest on the wire reports:

Helton-to-Boston Talks Off (http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/9962102)

[Dogdaze]

I'm not completely surprised, the Rox were asking for too much imo.

[Mattingly]

Given the fact that Helton hasn't had any real protection in the lineup in Colorado and the fact that almost any talent grows somewhat complacent when not playing for a contender year after year, I think that he'd murder in Fenway (assuming his stomach issues have been resolved). I also, as I said earlier, think that Pesky's pole was made for him.
So how the heck do people account for Barry Bonds not having the protection in the lineup? Oh yeah, his uhmmmmm ... vitamins! :D

I can see a player getting bored and suffering lesser skills, but if there's an ailment, I sometimes think that may be an issue also. From looking at the dramatic difference between his BA/OBP/OPS from NL stadium to the next, I'm still wondering about all the inconsistency.

I'll grant you that he could be very good offensively for Boston in 2007, but would he be consistently good, especially over 6 years? That part I wouldn't grant you. I still say that he's a risk, even if he'll be very good to excellent the first year or two.

As to Pesky's pole, though it's only 302' right where it's at, it edges off very steeply just to the left in HR territory. If he doesn't get a deep hit there, then there's the other deep part called the triangle in CF. Of course, he can always do the Wade Boggs bit and bounce a few off "the Monstah" for a double.

[Mattingly]

I'm not completely surprised, the Rox were asking for too much imo.
I'd agree, since they were asking for Lowell, Tavarez, DelCarmen, who's highly prized, and another minor leaguer. I think that if they remove DelCarmen's name from the deal, that trade is done.

I still have my doubts as to whether he'll still be producing in 2010-12, which is the final 3 seasons, but if I were the Rockies' owner or GM, I'd just pay 40% of his salary, which increases to the $20m and above range in the last few years.

From a financial viewpoint, no other team would be willing to take on that back-loaded contract, especially with the price escalating to that amount in the end. With that, I wouldn't exactly try raiding any other team's farm in order for them to take your prized player off their hands, even if he's the most famous 2006 Rockie.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

I'm not surprised. I'm happy...that Theo Epstein holds on to his strategy, keeeping the young arms on our club. For the Boston Red Sox it would have been a trade just to help the Rockies with their finances. The Rockies will have to trade him sooner or later, they have good young talent behind Helton at first and they don't have the money to pay that large amount of money to one player.

But the Rockies wanted it to look like this wasn't a trade they absolutely had to make, cause of the finances, so they could solidify their position in the trade talks. But Epstein did nicely not to give up what they wanted him to.

The Boston Red Sox, the Mets, the Angels and the Yankees are the only franchises who could afford taking Heltons contract, even if the Rockies pay a part of it.

But Helton doesn't want to go to the Angels, the Mets have Delgado, and the Yankees don't want to pay more money for another veteran and they just took Mientkiewicz under contract. So also at the trade deadline, it's the Red Sox or the Rockies. If he still has an average season like 2006 the Red Sox will be even offering less than Lowell and Tavarez, if he has again an all-star season and the Rockies aren0t in the playoffrace anymore, Epstein could make this deal happen, even if has has to throw in Delcarmen. But if Lowell has a nice 2007 year, forget it.

[SoxSon]

I'm not completely surprised, the Rox were asking for too much imo.

I agree. While I was intrigued by the idea, I couldn't imagine Colorado would make this deal happen without asking for more than Boston would give.

[VTSoxFan]

I think the Red Sox got burned last year, giving up so much young pitching, and balked at a similar situation. Besides... even with Lowell in his last year, the Sox didn't desperately need Helton. If there had been a vast hole to fill, perhaps that would have pushed the deal through, but adding Helton to the already impressive lineup would have been a luxury.

[wilkerson_rulz-06]

I'd love to see Helton in a Red Sox uniform, but, I can only see him in a Rockies jersey, to me, Todd Helton would not be Todd Helton out of Colorado, simply put, he's their franchise player even if he is declining and getting older.

Despite all of this, Helton remains one of the best hitters and all-around players in baseball.

I don't think the Rockies should trade him just yet...wait until the final year of his contract, like in 2011 :D

No but really, he'll be gone by then, it's clear the Rockies want to build a younger fresh-blooder organization.

Kudos to what Helton has accomplished though, I respect him very much. :)