Are the Mets really going to be better?

[Sabes87]

If the Mets sign Lugo and end up getting Zito theyd probably look a lot like:

1.) Reyes
2.) Lo Duca
3.) Beltran
4.) Delgado
5.) Wright
6.) Alou
7.) Green
8.) Lugo

1.) Zito
2.) Glavine
3.) El Duque
4.) Maine
5.) Perez

Bullpen:
CL- Wagner
SU- Heilman
SU- Sanchez
MR- Feliciano
MR- Adkins
MR- Padilla
LR- Dave Williams


You could say that Omar might add another starter i.e. Meche, Lilly...but is this a better team than last year?

[Dalkowski110]

It has the potential to be, especially regarding the rotation. Although signing Julio Lugo is probable, you basically have the same starting position players as last year except Alou, who isn't truthfully all that different from Floyd. I also doubt Dave Williams will be the long guy...I'd expect that job to go to either Brian Bannister or Alay Soler. Possibly Jason Vargas if Peterson can get his mechanics straightened out.

[Dalkowski110]

Bumping this to Page 1.

[tearforamariner]

It has the potential to be, especially regarding the rotation. Although signing Julio Lugo is probable, you basically have the same starting position players as last year except Alou, who isn't truthfully all that different from Floyd. I also doubt Dave Williams will be the long guy...I'd expect that job to go to either Brian Bannister or Alay Soler. Possibly Jason Vargas if Peterson can get his mechanics straightened out.


We can compare Floyd and Alou's seasons from last year pretty easily because they had practically the same number of PAs (difference of 2 in favor of Alou). Let's look at their numbers:

Floyd: [376 PA/332 AB]
.244 BA | .324 OBP | .407 SLG |91 OPS+
19 2B | 1 3B | 11 HR | 44 RBI | 45 R | 135 TB

Alou: [378 PA/345 AB]
.301 BA | .351 OBP | .571 SLG |132 OPS+
25 2B | 1 3B | 22 HR | 74 RBI | 52 R | 197 TB

I'd say that's a definite improvement.

[Jose Reyes]

2007's team will be similar to 2006. The lineup is pretty much the same but the young players like Reyes and Wright are going to keep improving as they develop and get older. Although the rotation might not look great it was still one of the best statistically in the NL last year and if Zito is signed and Maine plays a whole season and continues to develop into a good pitcher than I'd say it's better than last year.

[Dalkowski110]

You have an excellent point...Reyes and Wright have nowhere to go but up, and then there's John Maine. Barring arm injury, I think he'll come into his own. And Oliver Perez is a low risk/high gain guy. If he has a good ST, I'd give him the #5 slot in a heartbeat. Juan Padilla is another example of low risk/high gain, especially since we're paying him peanuts. If I were to put a 25-man roster together, it'd look like this (assuming a few things of course)

Pitchers:
-Ace Tom Glavine
-#2 Orlando Hernandez
-#3 John Maine
-#4 Oliver Perez
-#5 Phil Humber
-LRP Victor Zambrano or Jason Standridge
-MRP Juan Padilla
-MRP Jon Adkins
-MRP Pedro Feliciano
-SU Aaron Heilman
-SU Duaner Sanchez
-CP Billy Wagner

Lineup:
-SS Jose Reyes
-C Paul Lo Duca
-CF Carlos Beltran
-1B Carlos Delgado
-3B David Wright
-LF Moises Alou
-2B Jose Valentin
-RF Shawn Green

Bench:
-C Ramon Castro
-1B Julio Franco
-IF/OF Damion Easley
-OF Endy Chavez
-OF Ben Johnson

EDITED


Hmm...what about a 40-man roster? Well, why not?

Pitchers:
-SP Tom Glavine
-SP Barry Zito
-SP Orlando Hernandez
-SP John Maine
-SP Oliver Perez
-SP Mike Pelfrey
-SP Phil Humber
-SP Pedro Martinez
-SP Jason Vargas
-SP/LRP Dave Williams
-LRP Alay Soler
-LRP Jason Standridge
-LRP Clint Nageotte
-LRP Victor Zambrano
-MRP Juan Padilla
-MRP Jon Adkins
-MRP Pedro Feliciano
-MRP Ambiorix Burgos
-MRP Joe Smith
-MRP Steve Schmoll
-SU Aaron Heilman
-SU Duaner Sanchez
-CP Billy Wagner

Catchers:
-Paul Lo Duca
-Ramon Castro

Infielders:
-Julio Franco
-Carlos Delgado
-Jose Valentin
-Damion Easley
-Anderson Hernandez
-Ruben Gotay
-Jose Reyes
-David Wright

Outfielders:
-Moises Alou
-Carlos Beltran
-Shawn Green
-Ben Johnson
-Endy Chavez
-Lastings Milledge
-Carlos Gomez

[NYMets523]

Pitchers:
-Ace Tom Glavine
-#2 Barry Zito (I honestly think he'll be made the number two guy)


I seriously doubt that they are going to put the pressure on Glavine to be our ace when we have a young guy like Zito who was the ace on the A's and had good numbers. Zito needs some work but that is what Spring Training is for. Bringing him back to Peterson will help.

[Dalkowski110]

Of that I have no doubt...I just think Glavine will be penciled in as the opening day starter with the number two starter emerging as the ace, unless we somehow wound up with Dontrelle Willis or Jake Peavy (the latter we WON'T wind up with...the Padres said they won't deal him).

[Joltin Joe Giradio]

Valentin, Chavez, Loduca will likely all take a step back somewhat. Green is gonna be forgettable. Other than that, the offense will still be very good. Alou instead of Floyd is a nice offensive upgrade. Delgado's stats might slip a bit as he ages, but he should still crack 30 and 95. I am hoping Beltran tries hard for 40-40 next year before his legs start to slow down and he loses his shot. (Unfortunately I don't think he will be aggressive stealing... since he may feel like he doesn't need to run)

I look for a pretty good year from Perez. He should have a good run here and there and may still battle inconsistency. I am not sold on Maine but I'd rather have him than Duque. I look for Duque to be DL'ed at some pt so maybe Pelfrey will fill that spot. I hope they sign Zito because otherwise Omah is gonna feel like he needs to force a trade.

Blanton is the pitcher version of Nady. Pass. Not worth Milledge.

All in all, I think the Mets will win a few less games than 06 but still crack 90.

Assuming no major injuries of course. If Wright or Beltran or Reyes went down for significant amounts of time, there'll be trouble.

[Dalkowski110]

I disagree about Chavez...completely different hitter than he was with the Expos/Nationals/Royals. I am sold on John Maine. I don't think El Duque will be injured for any significant period of time. I also think that his starting sub would not be Pelfrey, necessarily. Now, if he went down late in the season, then yes. But if early in the season, I'd expect Phil Humber (more mature pitcher, better pitch command).

I tend to think Boras backed himself into the wrong driveway regarding Zito. Texas was planned as a way to drive up the price for the Mets, not for Zito to actually pitch there. Heck, all Zito's friends say he wants to pitch in NY and/or will wind up in NY. But now Texas is no longer interested, period. And the Mets? Well, to show you how desperately Boras wants to ship Zito to the Mets, he's focusing more on negotiations with them than with Texas. But the Mets want to give Zito four years for 80 million. Boras wants 110 million over 6 years. The likely compromise (now there's a word you don't often hear relating to Boras) would be five years at anywhere from 90 million to 100 million. Strangely, Minaya doesn't seem to care about the money involved, just the length of the contract. I don't think Boras was gambling on that (my guess is he was thinking it would be the other way around), and was genuinely caught off guard. Ultimately the answer is yes, I think Zito will be signed. But when? Maybe after Matsuzaka's contract is finalized.