ESPN: Red Sox may be top bidders for Matsuzaka [Archive]

Mattingly

11-10-2006, 12:34 PM

Somewhere in the $38-45m range. The Yanks and Mets were outbid. Amazin'.

Sources: Red Sox may have top Matsuzaka bid (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2656687)
The Boston Red Sox may have posted the top bid for the right to negotiate with Japanese right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka, according to Major League Baseball sources.

There has been no official announcement, and the Seibu Lions, Matsuzaka's team in Japan, have until Tuesday to accept or reject the high bid.

But, according to officials monitoring the bidding, the Red Sox bid may be between $38 million and $45 million.

Matsuzaka, who pitched for Japan's World Baseball Classic champions, is considered among the top prospects available this offseason.

If the Lions accept the top bid, the winning bidder has 30 days to reach an agreement with Matsuzaka. If a deal cannot be reached, he would return to the Lions for the 2007 Japanese baseball season.

By 5 p.m. Wednesday, major league teams interested in bidding on the rights to deal with Matsuzaka had to post a sealed bid. Major League Basball then took the highest bid and forwarded only the dollar figure -- not the identity of the team -- to the Seibu Lions.

ChrisLDuncan

11-10-2006, 12:40 PM

EvanAparra

11-10-2006, 12:41 PM

Yeah if this happens I can seriously see the Yankees signing Schmidt and Zito.
Definately, the Yanks cant let the Sox have a top tier pitcher without getting one themselves. Its all about the comp.

ChrisLDuncan

11-10-2006, 12:49 PM

Definately, the Yanks cant let the Sox have a top tier pitcher without getting one themselves. Its all about the comp.

ONE??? Are you high Evan we need atleast two ;)

EvanAparra

11-10-2006, 12:50 PM

ONE??? Are you high Evan we need atleast two ;)
Nah, Pavano is winning a Cy Young this year.

Mattingly

11-10-2006, 12:51 PM

Yeah if this happens I can seriously see the Yankees signing Schmidt and Zito.
While I'll admit I'm definitely in the "put Matsuzaka in pinstripes" camp, it could be a blessing in disguise. I don't think the Yanks will corner the pitching market this season (or any other), but I'd definitely consider Schimidt, Suppan and Zito. I'm sure that these 3 would be demanding overpaying, in that they're likely #2-#3 pitchers asking for $15m apiece as aces.

Still, if the posting fee for Matsuzaka was $25-30m, that's one thing. Once you approach $45m just to *NEGOTIATE* with someone, I'm guessing that the Red Sox must've forgotten about the lux tax limit's not be applied to this and decide to spend the family savings. While it's a one-time fee, not an annual overpayment, as in the lux tax, that's a pretty steep price to pay.

I hope that Matsuzaka does well (though obviously not *TOO* well if he plays in Beantown), but that's an unusually high price. If only Johan Santana were an FA, I'd say to spend the farm on him instead.

ChrisLDuncan

11-10-2006, 03:37 PM

Well Zito isn't out of the question, he'll land in NY, it's just which part is the question. Schmdit I am weary of, I don't want another 30+ NL pitcher...PERIOD, Suppan if the Yankees can get him for under 6.5 Mill I'd say it's a good move.

plask_stirlac

11-10-2006, 03:40 PM

I guess Theo is hoping persistence pays off after Clement and Beckett, who have electric stuff, couldn't put very good seasons together. That and Lester was found to have his illness, and obviously they won't have 60 starts of roughly 100 ERA+ from Wake and Wells as was probably planned.

Theo got some pitchers out there capable of making a pretty good rotation but it melted down. Then nobody but Schilling can outperform the replacement Lester, and then Schilling and Lester have troubles to finish the season just in results.

Come to think of it I'd rather have Matsuzaka than Zito as long as we're in the AL East. And I hadn't noticed how mediocre and lucky Zito was after May giving up that many HRs and baserunners. Bringing in the priciest NL pitchers who aren't that great is also Russian Roulette. I like Schmidt but he was definitely in a pitcher's park and you'll have to add a run in ERA if he goes to an AL neutral or hitter's park, if not more. Then you're at league average for $11 M a year.

KCGHOST

11-10-2006, 03:45 PM

Suppan if the Yankees can get him for under 6.5 Mill I'd say it's a good move.

Journeyman pitchers usually pull $8-$9M contracts so that would too low to get him.

Mariano_Rivera

11-10-2006, 05:55 PM

Still no confirmation on ESPN News. I`m hoping against hope that he will be a Yankee.

BoSox Rule

11-10-2006, 06:04 PM

I really, really hope we don't get him. I don't think there is a chance in hell he will post an ERA below 3.00, which he should if he's going to be getting about 17-20 million dollars per year with the contract and bidding fee.

Mariano_Rivera

11-10-2006, 06:07 PM

Dalkowski110

11-10-2006, 07:07 PM

VERY interesting regarding ESPN...they took down the Matsuzaka article and replaced it with one discussing J.D. Drew. The man who reported the story was Buster Olney, who is famous/infamous for his inaccuracies. Then I looked at something, dunno if it's a coincidence or not. The range of money offered for D-Mat. "$38 million to $45 million." Did anyone else notice that "38" is Curt Schilling's jersey number and 45 was Pedro's? Further, ESPN issued THIS statement...

"We have thought all along that Tom Hicks would be the wild card in the Daisuke Matsuzaka bidding, and a source tells Jan Hubbard that the Rangers' bid may have been for almost $30 million. One bit of speculation heard yesterday -- and it was nothing more than speculation -- was that maybe Boston had made an enormous bid, in the range of $45 million."

Emphasis is added. Anyone starting to second-guess this?

BTW, sorry for the multiple postings, but this is big news. Well, actually, no, because Buster Olney has a reputation for being wrong. Just spreading the word to the baseball hopeful.

efin98

11-10-2006, 08:15 PM

Dalkowski110

11-10-2006, 09:09 PM

efin98

11-10-2006, 09:40 PM

Dalkowski110

11-10-2006, 10:36 PM

You don't write like that when you're confident. I should know. I was the editor of my school newspaper and plan to Minor in Journalism in college. To condense what Olney's saying, you get this...

"We heard some pure speculation that maybe the Red Sox put in a huge bid for Daisuke Matsuzaka."

Read that over. If that sounds at all confident to you, read it over again.

Rookie1914

11-11-2006, 08:06 AM

Paying Matsuzaka 20+ million is a huge gamble. A gamble that very few teams can take. I am not going to belittle him and say he won't be good, but we are not sure what he will do at this level. Personally, I think someone said it best earlier, George S. won't let the Red Sox win the offseason pitching juggling and signing acts.

Zito is the best free agent sp to me, making almost 8 million. Schmidt is making a little over 10 million. Matsuzaka to be paid 20+ million is nuts. I think Zito is the best one available [and you get a lefty].

The question is, will Zito pitch well if he leaves Oakland...Hudson and Mulder haven't lived up to their expectations yet.

ElHalo

11-11-2006, 09:37 AM

Zito is the best free agent sp to me, making almost 8 million. Schmidt is making a little over 10 million. Matsuzaka to be paid 20+ million is nuts. I think Zito is the best one available [and you get a lefty].

The question is, will Zito pitch well if he leaves Oakland...Hudson and Mulder haven't lived up to their expectations yet.

I'm not the biggest fan of Zito; I don't necessarily know that he'll be anything more than a fifth starter next year. Have you seen the free agent rankings on ESPN Insider? They rate him eighth among free agent pitchers, behind Matsuzaka, Schmidt, Clemens, Pettite, Mussina, Ted Lilly, and Gil Meche. His K rate has plummeted like a down-bound ICBM the last few years, and it's hard, at this point, to think that he's capable of offering anything better than a solid number of innings, a 1.45 WHIP and a 5.00 ERA. He's going to be VASTLY overpaid, because his numbers look ok from pitching in front of good defenses in a pitcher's park. But take note that his 1.40 WHIP, 1.53 K/BB, and .756 OPSA, were all significantly worse than Yankees' disaster Randy Johnson, who despite his 5.00 ERA ended up with a 1.24 WHIP, 2.87 K/BB, and .723 OPSA. He's not a number one starter. He's not a number 3 starter. Zito is a back of the rotation guy at this point, and nobody seems to realize it.

PhilWings24

11-11-2006, 09:41 AM

Well the Boston Herald, Boston Globe, Providence Journal, Hartford Courant, New York Post, and Newsday all think the report is probably accurate. Or at least thats what they're saying to sell papers.

Only the ny daily news says

Yanks doubt report of Daisuke to Sox
November 11
New York Daily News: "But other baseball officials, including Yankee GM Brian Cashman, weren't so sure Matsuzaka is Boston-bound. And a Red Sox source last night called the report 'premature.'"

i'm still not getting too excited about any of this. or at least trying not too. if the sox bid really was double the second highest bid, and it appears other teams in the majors were NOT as willing to spend as it first seemed, that would lead me to believe that the added revenue from having this guy on your team isn't as much as i've heard it is (though it makes sense that it wouldn't help the yankees much, as they already have Hideki Matsui.

If that is the case though (that the revenues aren't that extraordinary) i wouldn't be surprised to see the red sox let this guy pack his bags and go back to japan, take their 45 mil back, and be content with not letting the yankees get him. it'd be nice to see them make a seemingly-emotionally driven move like that actually lol, george does it all the time and this FO has always steered away from them (emotional decisions)

Rookie1914

11-11-2006, 09:49 AM

I am not really considering Clemens. He may not even play. The juice is preserving is keeping him prime in his old age.

PhilWings24

11-11-2006, 09:50 AM

i made several posts like this, on the other thread, but i want as many people to see it as possible, cus i don't wanna hear about how ridiculous this bid is (which, assuming it was actually made, it appears to be at face value):

the added revenue from adding a Far-Eastern star to your team is astronomical. I've heard some people say it will create 40 mil within 2 years, others 4, others 5.

now i'm posting this backwards lol, as my last post indicates i'm not so sure anymore. but i wanted to get that out there. one ridiculously exciting bit i just read on baseball prospectus:

Beyond the 03-06 Clemens comparison, [which is Matsuzaka's most comprable player over the last 4 years], the next most-comparable pitchers over the last four years include Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Jason Schmidt, Josh Beckett, Pedro Martinez, Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy. In other words, a short list that includes most of the true right-handed rotation aces in the game over the past four seasons.

PhilWings24

11-11-2006, 09:52 AM

I am not really considering Clemens. He may not even play. The juice is preserving is keeping him prime in his old age.

i've never been a clemens fan. i'm 16 years old, which means i've always known him as the hall of famer that's departure ruined the sox, and who later joined the yankees. i never even knew him as a future hall of famer playing for the red sox.

that said, there is ZERO reason to think he's on steroids, aside from the fact that he's old and doing well. in which case its time to go get nolan ryan and the niekro brothers.

ChrisLDuncan

11-11-2006, 10:06 AM

Weird. However, if you have Insider, you can view the article from which I drew the quote:

"We have thought all along that Tom Hicks would be the wild card in the Daisuke Matsuzaka bidding, and a source tells Jan Hubbard that the Rangers' bid may have been for almost $30 million. One bit of speculation heard yesterday -- and it was nothing more than speculation -- was that maybe Boston had made an enormous bid, in the range of $45 million."

It was posted later than the other article, and would seem to refute it.

Well see this is called the Baseball offseason; I don't know if you're to familiar with it. The time before Winter Meetings is usually a pretty boring time for a baseball fan unless their team has won a WS, so anything that has a remote chance of making news baseball fans will find interesting. Now realistically most stuff happens at the winter meetings, speaking of which when the hell are they?

Rookie1914

11-11-2006, 10:34 AM

i've never been a clemens fan. i'm 16 years old, which means i've always known him as the hall of famer that's departure ruined the sox, and who later joined the yankees. i never even knew him as a future hall of famer playing for the red sox.

that said, there is ZERO reason to think he's on steroids, aside from the fact that he's old and doing well. in which case its time to go get nolan ryan and the niekro brothers.

Don't be Naive.

"...according to a source who used to work with McNamee, federal investigators have pursued a money trail through computer files that have led them directly back to Clemens and teammate Andy Pettitte, who also employed McNamee as his personal trainer. The noose has tightened, according to the source, and it will all come out before long. (Clemens and Pettitte couldn't be reached for comment.)"

It's only a matter of time. J. Damon's head is on the chopping block too.

Mattingly

11-11-2006, 10:42 AM

PhilWings24

11-11-2006, 10:45 AM

Don't be Naive.

"...according to a source who used to work with McNamee, federal investigators have pursued a money trail through computer files that have led them directly back to Clemens and teammate Andy Pettitte, who also employed McNamee as his personal trainer. The noose has tightened, according to the source, and it will all come out before long. (Clemens and Pettitte couldn't be reached for comment.)"

It's only a matter of time. J. Damon's head is on the chopping block too.

don't call me naive. if i'd never read that article before it would make me uninformed, not naive. don't call me naive.

too bad for me though, i have read that article. i've also heard that jason grimsley, a man who clearly has no inhibitions ratting people out under the right circumstances, said that roger clemens would "never in a million years" use a performance enhancer.

i also know that that article was published like what, 10 days ago, and NOTHING has come of it aside from that one article. there weren't even other articles like it being published at the same time.

don't put all your faith in one article. don't put all your faith in 10 articles. otherwise alex rodriguez would be playing shortstop for the red sox right now, and darren dreifort would be signing a deal twice the size of his 5 year 55 million dollar deal right about now.

now i'll be honest, it will be tough to convince me that clemens used steroids, and because i don't want to believe that he did them. but i wouldn't judge anyone on one article.

PhilWings24

11-11-2006, 10:46 AM

Since this thread is about Matsuzaka, can people please post their views on Clemens, Pettitte and PEDs into this thread (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=53005), which specifically discusses this?

Thanks. :)

yeah i'm done. i had nothing new to say on the matsuzaka front though, so i felt like i had to say that much lol.

sorry about going off topic, i'm done.

Rookie1914

11-11-2006, 11:29 AM

It's far more than one article. You will watch it all unravel soon enough. I can't wait. Cheaters are bad for the "game". If you don't remember Clemens youthful pitching in Boston, you have a lot to catch up on. I agree, you are uninformed, not naive.

Dalkowski110

11-11-2006, 12:33 PM

One very telling thing about Matsuzaka is that the Japanese papers, who you'd think would be the first to report something of this magnitude, are absolutely silent. From Peter Abraham of The Journal News's Blog...

"The Japanese papers literally have people standing outside of the team offices waiting to get the news [about Matsuzaka]."

The New York Post and Newsday both cited their lone source as "an ESPN report yesterday." Ditto The Botson Globe, The Boston Herald, and Hartford Courant. Only the Providence Journal cites "other baseball officials," which is innaccurate, considering Buster Olney is far from a baseball official. Everything can be traced back to Olney.

wilkerson_rulz-06

11-11-2006, 01:20 PM

Amazing, that much only to NEGOTIATE!

TheKingofKings

11-11-2006, 01:43 PM

Amazing, that much only to NEGOTIATE!
So much money in the world is to be waisted !!! :rolleyes:

efin98

11-11-2006, 02:05 PM

So much money in the world is to be waisted !!! :rolleyes:

They don't pay it unless they actually sign him.

wilkerson_rulz-06

11-11-2006, 02:14 PM

They don't pay it unless they actually sign him.
Really? So they sign him fro 10 mil a year for 4 years then?

ElHalo

11-11-2006, 02:21 PM

ElHalo

11-11-2006, 02:25 PM

They don't pay it unless they actually sign him.

That's not the information I've received. They're paying for the right to negotiate with him; their ability to actually get him under contract is irrelevant. It should be entirely possible for them to pay $40 mill to negotiate with him, have him decide he doesn't want to play for Boston and would rather wait until he's a free agent next year, and for Boston to lose all that money.

EvanAparra

11-11-2006, 02:28 PM

That's not the information I've received. They're paying for the right to negotiate with him; their ability to actually get him under contract is irrelevant. It should be entirely possible for them to pay $40 mill to negotiate with him, have him decide he doesn't want to play for Boston and would rather wait until he's a free agent next year, and for Boston to lose all that money.
No, Boston wont lose any of that money if they fail to sign him.

wigglestrue

11-11-2006, 02:53 PM

It should be entirely possible for them to pay $40 mill to negotiate with him, have him decide he doesn't want to play for Boston and would rather wait until he's a free agent next year, and for Boston to lose all that money.

They don't pay the posting bid to the Lions until he's signed, so if a team bids but he doesn't sign, the bid is nullified. Ergo, a very high bid would also encourage the Lions to facilitate a signing, i.e., kick in some $$$. If he's not signed, then this all happens again next year (he's not a NPB free agent until 2 years from now), and the Lions would be gambling (against a decline, injury, etc.) that they'd get as high a bid next year as they've reportedly received this year. Part of the reason why a very high bid would be a smart move, whoever made it.

Rookie1914

11-11-2006, 02:56 PM

This makes me feel really, really old. Which I'm not, yet. But it makes me feel so.

I wanted to mention that I think it's GREAT that at 16 you are in here learning from some of the most knowledgeable guys around concerning baseball. I wish there were more kids today like you. Hang in there and enjoy. :D

EvanAparra

11-11-2006, 03:03 PM

I wanted to mention that I think it's GREAT that at 16 you are in here learning from some of the most knowledgeable guys around concerning baseball. I wish there were more kids today like you. Hang in there and enjoy. :D
ElHalo isnt 16, PhilWings is.

Rookie1914

11-11-2006, 03:05 PM

ElHalo isnt 16, PhilWings is.

I know. Just saying that with him.
:D

Charger567

11-11-2006, 04:19 PM

So it's official now? The Sox have won the rights to negotiate?

PhilWings24

11-11-2006, 05:54 PM

So it's official now? The Sox have won the rights to negotiate?

Not unless you know something I/We don't.

In my opinion its looking rather dim, actually.

EvanAparra

11-11-2006, 05:55 PM

Not unless you know something I/We don't.

In my opinion its looking rather dim, actually.
Why is it looking dim? No reports of other teams winning have come out.. and no one has come out and totally denied Olney's report either.

PhilWings24

11-11-2006, 06:02 PM

Why is it looking dim? No reports of other teams winning have come out.. and no one has come out and totally denied Olney's report either.

wow that was quick replay haha.

i'm trying to keep my hopes down more than anything else. it seems to me if the sox posted a 38-45 million dollar bid, it would've taken the japaneese team about six seconds to accept (that's obviously a joke, but honestly why IS this taking so long? wouldn't they have figured an over/under beforehand?). And the fact that this story broke yesterday afternoon and NOTHING else has developed doesn't encourage me one bit.

i conceeded this to the yankees the moment i found out that money was the only thing that was going to make a difference. that there would be no marketing your team, (obviously) no "come play here, its close to your hometown." so for me to change my mind about that, or at least for me to let myself change my mind about that, it'll take a report from someone more reliable than buster olney, or, really, legitimate confirmation.

i'm hopin to God, though. which was more than i could say before the reports were published. i'd really literally conceeded it to the yankees

EvanAparra

11-11-2006, 06:06 PM

wow that was quick replay haha.

I'm stalking your posts. :D

Mattingly

11-11-2006, 06:34 PM

So it's official now? The Sox have won the rights to negotiate?
Sometimes I wonder if this is true or just a highly trumpeted move by Buster Olney.

The Red Sox haven't spent tons of money on a player other than David Ortiz. This only after Johnny Damon rebuffed them, heading 200+ miles south.

Not since Manny Ramirez have they broken the bank. If I'd heard that posting fee amount, I'd have thought of one team, which would be the Yanks. However, since Brian Cashman is more in control, as Steinbrenner (in failing health) let him have greater control than in the past, I'm not even sure I'd buy that right now. Perhaps 2 seasons ago, but not now.

Between the Yanks and Red Sox, sometimes I doubt that either team would pull the trigger on such a hi-priced fee merely for the right to negotiate with the player.

As to what I've heard, the money is only paid if the team signs with the player. I'm uncertain if the next highest bidder gets a chance to negotiate if the hi-bidding team doesn't reach agreement on a contract. However, I would think that in order to save face, a high bidder would at least have invested sufficiently to pay for the contract, not acting like the posting fee includes the player salary also.

If no new info by Monday, I figure it can't be fully true. I'm hoping to hear more info on this over the weekend.

PhilWings24

11-11-2006, 06:38 PM

Sometimes I wonder if this is true or just a highly trumpeted move by Buster Olney.

The Red Sox haven't spent tons of money on a player other than David Ortiz. This only after Johnny Damon rebuffed them, heading 200+ miles south.

Not since Manny Ramirez have they broken the bank. If I'd heard that posting fee amount, I'd have thought of one team, which would be the Yanks. However, since Brian Cashman is more in control, as Steinbrenner (in failing health) let him have greater control than in the past, I'm not even sure I'd buy that right now. Perhaps 2 seasons ago, but not now.

Between the Yanks and Red Sox, sometimes I doubt that either team would pull the trigger on such a hi-priced fee merely for the right to negotiate with the player.

As to what I've heard, the money is only paid if the team signs with the player. I'm uncertain if the next highest bidder gets a chance to negotiate if the hi-bidding team doesn't reach agreement on a contract. However, I would think that in order to save face, a high bidder would at least have invested sufficiently to pay for the contract, not acting like the posting fee includes the player salary also.

If no new info by Monday, I figure it can't be fully true. I'm hoping to hear more info on this over the weekend.

if the high bidder doesn't get him, he goes home. meaning the winning bidder actually has an enormous upper hand once the negotiations actually begin.

isn't monday the day the decision needs to be made by? or is it tuesday?

i thought that the Lions had 4 days to make up their mind, but that would mean either today or tomorrow, and i don't think that's the case.

seriously, does anyone have any idea why this is taking so long? i really would've though they had an over/under figure laid out long beforehand. over=accept, under=decline. not sure why its such a time-staking process.

11 AM in tokyo right now. 1 PM seems to be a popular announcement-making time here in the states, so i'll keep on waiting til then, and then give up for the day.

lets go olney.

Mattingly

11-11-2006, 06:49 PM

if the high bidder doesn't get him, he goes home. meaning the winning bidder actually has an enormous upper hand once the negotiations actually begin.

isn't monday the day the decision needs to be made by? or is it tuesday?

i thought that the Lions had 4 days to make up their mind, but that would mean either today or tomorrow, and i don't think that's the case.

seriously, does anyone have any idea why this is taking so long? i really would've though they had an over/under figure laid out long beforehand. over=accept, under=decline. not sure why its such a time-staking process.

11 AM in tokyo right now. 1 PM seems to be a popular announcement-making time here in the states, so i'll keep on waiting til then, and then give up for the day.

lets go olney.
Yeah, I think you may be right about the "accept the contract offered or he goes home" thing. With Boras, I'd think that the team would be prepared to pay what Boras called a contract at least as much as the bidding fee.

Even if the posting fee is "only" $40m, then a $40m/3 yr deal would be $80m over 3 years. They'd definitely need to re-sign him afterwards for a few years to make the initial investment worthwhile.

I'd picked Monday out of the blue. Heck, it's Friday, so I was willing to give it the weekend to get everything sorted out. No way a mammoth deal like this gets no additional info on Saturday and Sunday. By comparison, when the Yanks traded for A-Rod, that came on Valentine's Day in Feb 2004, whicih I believe was a Friday. By that day, the rumors swelled, and by Saturday or Sunday, the media was all over it. It went from a few whispers to front-page news in no time.

That's the thing about this. Here you have another ground-shaking deal, but the only name attached to it is Buster Olney. Why haven't we heard every single talking & squawking head at ESPN, SI, Fox et al making noise about this? Perhaps I should just watch more TV in order to make sure they're not talking our ears off (while looking pompous at the same time).

As to 4 days, is that to accept the bid (which I'd thought was automatic, since it would be the highest offered), or how much time is left to actually negotiate the deal itself? Wouldn't surprise me if Boras forced (or tried to) an overpriced deal, even beyond what one would expect after such a high posting fee.

Oh well, thank goodness it's not the Yanks paying this crazy amount. I'm very interested in the player, but not for that much money.

PhilWings24

11-11-2006, 07:01 PM

i'm certain that if no agreement is reached, he goes back to japan AND the negotiating team gets its bid back.

one thing, though, is that the bid (if it was actually made) does seem exorbanatly (sp?) high. but no one at all seems to acknowledge the revenue a japaneese star creates. in addition, it would seem particularly useful to the sox, because they have made delibrate efforts to build revenue internationally (i think there is actually a Red Sox Bar in tokyo).

Just ask the mariners, lol. I haven't seen any numbers so i won't pretend i have, but the media certainly made it out to look like 20% of japan tuned in for every single mariners game the first year that ichiro was signed. also, that effect is magnified by being a big-market club to begin with (in addition to, like i said, the efforts the red sox have made to market internationally)

ElHalo

11-11-2006, 07:49 PM

They don't pay the posting bid to the Lions until he's signed, so if a team bids but he doesn't sign, the bid is nullified. Ergo, a very high bid would also encourage the Lions to facilitate a signing, i.e., kick in some $$$. If he's not signed, then this all happens again next year (he's not a NPB free agent until 2 years from now), and the Lions would be gambling (against a decline, injury, etc.) that they'd get as high a bid next year as they've reportedly received this year. Part of the reason why a very high bid would be a smart move, whoever made it.

This wouldn't make any sense at all to me that they'd be able to keep their money if they don't sign a guy to a contract. The best course of action for the Red Sox, in that case, would be to bid something ludicrous, like, say, $400 million, to be sure that the Yankees' didn't outbid them, and then just not even make the slightest attempt to negotiate a contract. That way, they could keep Matsuzaka out of everyone else's hands, but wouldn't have to lay out any money themselves. That can't possibly be the way it's set up.

ElHalo

11-11-2006, 07:53 PM

i'm certain that if no agreement is reached, he goes back to japan AND the negotiating team gets its bid back.

Again, this just doesn't make sense. What's to stop the Kansas City Royals from bidding $400 million and then not offering Matsuzaka a contract, just to spoil everyone else's fun? A major league team (or any business of any size, really) can always find somebody to offer them temporary letters of credit if they know they'll be getting the money back, so just producing the cash wouldn't be an issue.

Rookie1914

11-11-2006, 07:57 PM

Matsuzaka will be pitching in the US this season. Trust me.

EvanAparra

11-11-2006, 08:03 PM

Again, this just doesn't make sense..
May not make sense, but it seems thats how it is. I think if a team does something like that and doesnt actually try and get a contract signed, MLB can just give the opportunity to the next highest bidder.

SoxSon

11-11-2006, 08:05 PM

SoxSon

11-11-2006, 08:07 PM

May not make sense, but it seems thats how it is. I think if a team does something like that and doesnt actually try and get a contract signed, MLB can just give the opportunity to the next highest bidder.

Does seem strange, but this is from ESPN:

"If the Lions accept the top bid, the winning bidder has 30 days to reach an agreement with Matsuzaka. If a deal cannot be reached, he would return to the Lions for the 2007 Japanese baseball season."

efin98

11-11-2006, 08:34 PM

This wouldn't make any sense at all to me that they'd be able to keep their money if they don't sign a guy to a contract. The best course of action for the Red Sox, in that case, would be to bid something ludicrous, like, say, $400 million, to be sure that the Yankees' didn't outbid them, and then just not even make the slightest attempt to negotiate a contract. That way, they could keep Matsuzaka out of everyone else's hands, but wouldn't have to lay out any money themselves. That can't possibly be the way it's set up.

We don't know the exact way the contract is worded but I believe they probably included some sort of stipulation avoiding that scenario you gave in order to only allow teams that actually have an interest in signing him to a contract and not just bidding to prevent others from getting him.

efin98

11-11-2006, 08:40 PM

As far as I know, the Japanese team has to choose the bid before any negotiations can begin. They aren't going to pay attention to a bid that's clearly a fraud, only because it's potential money out of their pockets.

They don't choose who wins the bids, the bids are sealed and only the amount of the bid is shown. The winning team is only known after the highest bid is accepted and even then if it's a ridiculous amount only meant to prevent another team from getting him they will throw it out and accept the next highest bid.

Dalkowski110

11-11-2006, 08:57 PM

That scenario is prevented because the MLB and NPB Commissioners would declare the bid to be unethical, and, in a special case, give him to the second highest bidder.

Mattingly

11-11-2006, 10:05 PM

Again, this just doesn't make sense. What's to stop the Kansas City Royals from bidding $400 million and then not offering Matsuzaka a contract, just to spoil everyone else's fun? A major league team (or any business of any size, really) can always find somebody to offer them temporary letters of credit if they know they'll be getting the money back, so just producing the cash wouldn't be an issue.
If the Red Sox bid $400m, I'll scoot $cott Bora$ over and become his agent. Heck, no use being a mere baseball fan when that kind of money is available.

I'll whisper into the Seibu Lions' ears that they should accept the offer, we'll split the money. Afterwards, I'd work for only $1m per year for a 10-year deal.

If they're unable to pay up, we'd rename Fenway to "Yankee Stadium North, Bronx Chapter".

OK, a little fun never hurt anybody. :D :laugh

In all seriousness, nobody wants to keep him away from all other teams. If so, the Red Sox may face the ire of other teams' GMs, who may not wish to trade with them as often as before.

If done merely to keep him away from the Yanks, then it would seem like the Jose Canseco deal in reverse.

i'm certain that if no agreement is reached, he goes back to japan AND the negotiating team gets its bid back.

one thing, though, is that the bid (if it was actually made) does seem exorbanatly (sp?) high. but no one at all seems to acknowledge the revenue a japaneese star creates. in addition, it would seem particularly useful to the sox, because they have made delibrate efforts to build revenue internationally (i think there is actually a Red Sox Bar in tokyo).

Just ask the mariners, lol. I haven't seen any numbers so i won't pretend i have, but the media certainly made it out to look like 20% of japan tuned in for every single mariners game the first year that ichiro was signed. also, that effect is magnified by being a big-market club to begin with (in addition to, like i said, the efforts the red sox have made to market internationally)
Does you or anyone else here know how much of the money that the Japanese pay to see Ichiro Suzuki play was actually sent to the Seattle Mariners? I'm hearing that all MLB clubs share in merchandise, but I'm not positive about international TV rights.

PhilWings24

11-11-2006, 10:06 PM

Mattingly

11-11-2006, 10:09 PM

i assume there's some guard from ridiculous bids like that, but i'm really certain here. MLB.com has reiterated it several times.
I still say that the Seibu Lions should just accept the bid. Anyone crazy enough to offer something like that would have to be off their rocker.

If you produce a letter of credit, I presume that means you're financially strapped for the whole thing. If the bank or other financial entity is forced to pay it, someone (and their friends and staff) at that firm is definitely losing their job.

PhilWings24

11-11-2006, 10:13 PM

Does you or anyone else here know how much of the money that the Japanese pay to see Ichiro Suzuki play was actually sent to the Seattle Mariners? I'm hearing that all MLB clubs share in merchandise, but I'm not positive about international TV rights.

i don't exactly, but i believed its treated just like any other american revenue. which means its shared a little, but not alot.

also, the endorsement deals make a pretty big difference. some teams take in a portion of a player's endorsements while simaltaneously marketing him to get him more and more endorsements.

but to answer your question simply, no, i don't know ant figures.

PhilWings24

11-12-2006, 08:21 AM

the article is no longer posted at espn.com

time to rejoice, yankee fans.

SoxSon

11-12-2006, 10:33 AM

They don't choose who wins the bids, the bids are sealed and only the amount of the bid is shown. The winning team is only known after the highest bid is accepted and even then if it's a ridiculous amount only meant to prevent another team from getting him they will throw it out and accept the next highest bid.

Yes, you're restating what I'm getting at. I know that the Japanese team is unaware of who has placed the bids, but they are aware of the amounts. They aren't going to entertain a ludicrous bid, as it will only potentially take money out of their pockets.

ElHalo

11-12-2006, 11:50 AM

In all seriousness, nobody wants to keep him away from all other teams. If so, the Red Sox may face the ire of other teams' GMs, who may not wish to trade with them as often as before.

They absolutely would want to keep him off other teams. If you're a team that can't afford marquee free agents, you have two choices. Either a) not care about winning or losing, and focus on gaining gate receipt through various means, or b) do whatever you can to win anyway. If you choose option "b", it's in your best interest to keep all those good players you can't afford off other teams. If you're, say, the Pirates, and you really want to win, it's in your best interest to see Clemens get caught doping so he can't pitch for the Astros, Pujols get arrested for something or other so he's in jail instead of in a Cardinals' uniform, and Derrek Lee break both knees in a tragic smelting accident. It would put your team at an advantage. And if you're the Kansas City Royals, and you know you can't afford some top level player, it's in your best interest to see that no other major league team can get him either.

PhilWings24

11-12-2006, 12:19 PM

hopefully no teams out there are hoping for career ending injuries or career ruining crimes lol.

but in general, you're right.

maybe thats why this is taking so long? maybe the winning bid was so much higher than anyone else's they aren't sure if they should be taking it seriously or not.

Mattingly

11-12-2006, 12:42 PM

They absolutely would want to keep him off other teams. If you're a team that can't afford marquee free agents, you have two choices. Either a) not care about winning or losing, and focus on gaining gate receipt through various means, or b) do whatever you can to win anyway. If you choose option "b", it's in your best interest to keep all those good players you can't afford off other teams. If you're, say, the Pirates, and you really want to win, it's in your best interest to see Clemens get caught doping so he can't pitch for the Astros, Pujols get arrested for something or other so he's in jail instead of in a Cardinals' uniform, and Derrek Lee break both knees in a tragic smelting accident. It would put your team at an advantage. And if you're the Kansas City Royals, and you know you can't afford some top level player, it's in your best interest to see that no other major league team can get him either.
If that were the case, I'd think that the Pirates, Royals, D-Rays, Mariners and Rangers would be out there setting up Clemens for PEDs, seeing if they can get Derek Lee into an interesting mining accident, and seeing if they can send some goons by Pujols' place. I seriously doubt this will happen.

In the end, while Matsuzaka is certainly highly desired, he's representing what people consider a "guarantee", even though there is no. It's far more likely your rotation will be stronger with him than without. Teams with strong rotations will likely be that much stronger, especially if they don't have to force a mid reliever or call-up to be their #5 pitcher.

For teams not getting him, of which there will be 29, as well as teams with poor records, perhaps they could use some imagination. I think that working with a good pitching coach, giving an opportunity (and inspiration) to someone who can come through for you, may help.

I don't know if Zito, Schmidt, Suppan, Lilly and all the rest will excel above or to a lesser extent than Matsuzaka, but it would take more creativity (and far less money) to hope for these guys than someone who'll likely ask for 50% more and has a huge posting fee.

While it may be to their benefit to wish harm upon another team's golden goose, I don't see any teams going out there and making a public spectacle of themselves in attempting to harm a process that's perfectly legal, one that's pretty much a rich man's game, but whose existence and rules are acknowledged by all the players. If the team did this just to harm the process, I'm sure that Bud Lite would do something about this. Perhaps something decent for a change. :D

PhilWings24

11-12-2006, 12:53 PM

anyone know when the deadline on this guy is (as in the Lions' deadline to make up their mind).

I've heard monday and tuesday, but it seems to me it should be today. it also seems to me that this is widely available information. not sure why no 2 people or media outlets can agree on it.

but i thought they had 96 hours after the bidding ended, which 5 PM today.

Kdub Red Sox Fan 4Life

11-13-2006, 01:14 PM

It will be announced simultaneously in Tokyo and here in the U.S.

At 10 am wed. morning in Tokyo, which is 8 pm tues. night here.

On XM homeplate this morning (mon.), Orestes Destrade, who played in the bigs and in Japan for the same Seibu Lions, said his connections told him that the Red Sox bid was not in the $38-45 mil range.

It was more like $50 Million!!!:eek:

Also, that the Sox were going to offer a contract of 4 years/ 50 Million, making Matsuzaka a $100 million player.

At this point, this is all still speculation of course, so we'll have to wait and see. If this is true though, I sure hope the Red Sox know what they're doing and that this guy is actually worth all of this. (fingers crossed)

Mattingly

11-13-2006, 03:41 PM

From SI's Jon Heyman:

Boston places highest Matsuzaka bid
Red Sox have 30 days to negotiate contract with ace (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/baseball/mlb/11/13/boston.bidding/index.html)
NAPLES, Fla. -- The Boston Red Sox have won negotiating rights for Japanese League star Daisuke Matsuzaka, SI.com has confirmed.

The Seibu Lions have until Tuesday to decide whether to accept the bid, and it is expected they will announce they are accepting it on Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET in a joint press conference with the Major League Baseball office. After the announcement, the Red Sox will have 30 days to negotiate a contract with Matsuzaka, a star right-handed pitcher. It is likely they'll be able to come to an agreement, but if they can't, the Red Sox will hold onto their bid money and Matsuzaka would return to Japan for at least another year.

At least eight teams and possibly several more are thought to have bid on Matsuzaka. The Mets, Angels, Yankees, Rangers, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Indians are all believed to have made a bid.

ESPN's Peter Gammons reported earlier on Monday that the Red Sox had the high bid. Previous reports have pegged the winning bid at $38-to-45 million and $42 million, but a source has indicated that the winning bid may be even higher than that.

Rookie1914

11-13-2006, 03:44 PM

Ok, so he is looking at 10+ mil a year? I am not up on this too much. Thanks.

Mattingly

11-13-2006, 03:56 PM

Ok, so he is looking at 10+ mil a year? I am not up on this too much. Thanks.
If Scott Bora$ has his way, I'm thinking more like $14 mil a season.

For $42 mil, he'd better play SS and RF also.

wigglestrue

11-13-2006, 04:33 PM

Mattingly

11-13-2006, 04:40 PM

42 million that is not part of the Red Sox payroll. 42 million that won't be luxury taxed. 42 million that could be partly written off as a business expense in the future. 42 million that is just a little more than the cost of one of John Henry's yachts. 42 million that will be partly or maybe even mostly subsidized by increased Japanese revenue (more for MLB in general because of merchandise, more for the Sox specifically because of NESN -- especially if, say, their bid on Iwamura also wins).

The actual contract won't be that large, probably.
More like 10 million a year, not 14.
So all the Japanese kids will be wearing Matsuzaka jerseys to school? BTW, what kind of sales do the Red Sox expect the Japanese to make that's Mats-based? Pillows? Bobblehead dolls? I mean something's gotta pay his way.

As to $10m not 14, if $cott Bora$ has his way, it'll be higher. If you get any other agent (Arn Tellem, etc), you may talk about a lower salary. Bora$ will go for the highest deal he can. I say it'll equal the bid amount, which is reported to be $42, and that would mean $14m/yr x 3 yrs.

Once the bid is accepted, I'm thinking of having a poll asking what the final annual salary will be, including bonus.

EvanAparra

11-13-2006, 04:46 PM

If you get any other agent (Arn Tellem, etc), you may talk about a lower salary.
Why Tellem? I think I dislike him more than Boras. He's the one that rejected the Red Sox 4yr-60mil deal for Nomar. I think its different this time with Boras, he can't say that Matsuzaka will just sign with another team for more, because he cant. He's in a little pickle now.

Richmond Hill Phoenix

11-13-2006, 04:56 PM

To the few teams that could afford it, the bid is nothing. All the team owners are mega-rich, and $42 million is chump change. However, if the bid is indeed so large, they might well be doing it to keep him away from other teams. The bid is large enough to beat out all the other teams, but not so large as to warrant suspicion. Can't wait to see who actually gets him!

wigglestrue

11-13-2006, 05:00 PM

So all the Japanese kids will be wearing Matsuzaka jerseys to school? BTW, what kind of sales do the Red Sox expect the Japanese to make that's Mats-based? Pillows? Bobblehead dolls? I mean something's gotta pay his way.

What kind of merchandise has been produced for Ichiro and Matsui?

We're also talking about general Sox paraphenilia.
Anyway, that's revenue that will be shared.
Sox'll get a piece of it, but so will everyone else.

The exclusive revenue will be tied into NESN, and Fenway advertising.
I'm sure there must be a few other ways, too.

As to $10m not 14, if $cott Bora$ has his way, it'll be higher. If you get any other agent (Arn Tellem, etc), you may talk about a lower salary. Bora$ will go for the highest deal he can. I say it'll equal the bid amount, which is reported to be $42, and that would mean $14m/yr x 3 yrs.

Once the bid is accepted, I'm thinking of having a poll asking what the final annual salary will be, including bonus.

We shall see.

PhilWings24

11-13-2006, 05:21 PM

42 million that is not part of the Red Sox payroll. 42 million that won't be luxury taxed. 42 million that could be partly written off as a business expense in the future. 42 million that is just a little more than the cost of one of John Henry's yachts. 42 million that will be partly or maybe even mostly subsidized by increased Japanese revenue (more for MLB in general because of merchandise, more for the Sox specifically because of NESN -- especially if, say, their bid on Iwamura also wins).

The actual contract won't be that large, probably.
More like 10 million a year, not 14.

you know its strange, my dad keeps saying things like that, and i just don't get it. he's not a baeball official, but he is a pretty succesful business man, and he basically just keeps saying "i don't feel like explaining it but trust me, paying 42 million dollars in an untaxed side deal like this is NOT that big a deal. the contract is what matters most, and by a hug margin. 42 mil on the side is the equivalent to like 5 mil added to the payroll."

that's what led to the idea of signing bonuses in sports. a nd, in particular, weird signing bonuses liek derek jeters; they are huge, and they are paid over the course of his entire contract, despite being called a signing bonus.

my question, though, is how come only he and the red sox seem to think that?

side note- has it been confirmed they bid on iwamura?

Richmond Hill Phoenix

11-13-2006, 05:35 PM

ESPNFan

11-13-2006, 06:31 PM

It is a risk, considering that he might get injured, etc... However, those with the cash to spend (which most owners have) and the will to spend it (which most owners don't) don't mind spending that much to win. It's why the Yankees are in the race every season. They have an owner who is willing to lose his own money in order to win.

FWIW more and more reports are trickling in that its the sox.

Could this flag soon be flying over Fenway?
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/uploads/av-354.jpg
Credit BosoxBob at SOSH for that artistic gem.

ChrisLDuncan

11-13-2006, 07:21 PM

FWIW more and more reports are trickling in that its the sox.

And more reports, saying that he'll cost upwards of 100 million dollars.

ElHalo

11-13-2006, 08:57 PM

What kind of merchandise has been produced for Ichiro and Matsui?

The Yankees get a cut of broadcast rights in Japan, and Japanese advertisements plaster the walls of the Stadium, in addition to the MASSIVE jersey and merchandise sales in Japan. The Yankees are doing all right there.

Knick9

11-13-2006, 09:02 PM

And more reports, saying that he'll cost upwards of 100 million dollars.

That would be a rough fraction of the contract A-Rod got with Texas. (252 Million)

That is alot of money to spend. It's not as much of a risk as people are making it out to be. I believe Matsuzaka has a chance to dominate opponents with that shuuto pitch of his.

ElHalo

11-13-2006, 09:23 PM

That would be a rough fraction of the contract A-Rod got with Texas. (252 Million)

That is alot of money to spend. It's not as much of a risk as people are making it out to be. I believe Matsuzaka has a chance to dominate opponents with that shuuto pitch of his.

It could work out, but it's still an unknown. When Hideki Irabu came over, a lot of people were saying he was one of the top 5 pitchers on the planet. Kaz Matsui was, according to some, going to make Hideki the second best Matsui in New York. It's a hell of a risk to give Carlos Beltran money to a coin toss.

EvanAparra

11-13-2006, 09:24 PM

It could work out, but it's still an unknown. When Hideki Irabu came over, a lot of people were saying he was one of the top 5 pitchers on the planet. Kaz Matsui was, according to some, going to make Hideki the second best Matsui in New York. It's a hell of a risk to give Carlos Beltran money to a coin toss.
Like the cliche phrase my coach always used to tell me: You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

wigglestrue

11-13-2006, 09:45 PM

The Yankees get a cut of broadcast rights in Japan, and Japanese advertisements plaster the walls of the Stadium, in addition to the MASSIVE jersey and merchandise sales in Japan. The Yankees are doing all right there.

Well, we shall see what the Red Sox can manage re: broadcast rights. It would certainly help if we also won the rights to Iwamura, since he's an everyday player (to keep the Japanese audience interested while Matsuzaka doesn't pitch). Advertisements at Fenway? I've heard some people say there's no more room. Ha! See pictures of Fenway decades ago. There's always more room. Jersey and merchandise revenue is shared, so whatever cut the Sox get, all teams get the same. Still, it'll be good to increase overall merchandise sales in Japan by getting fans there interested in a new team, since Matsuzaka going to the Yankees would've merely reinforced a long-time following. Now they'll get to enjoy and maybe become addicted to the greatest rivalry in sports!

I'd like to know how big a deal Matsuzaka is over there.
I figure he's pretty huge, since he was the WBC mvp.
And it seems like he's been a center of attention since his HS days.
But is he anything like a "rock star", like Hideki?
Obviously not as adored as Hideki, but in the same ballpark?

Mattingly

11-13-2006, 10:11 PM

Why Tellem? I think I dislike him more than Boras. He's the one that rejected the Red Sox 4yr-60mil deal for Nomar. I think its different this time with Boras, he can't say that Matsuzaka will just sign with another team for more, because he cant. He's in a little pickle now.
You make a very good point, in that previously, Bora$ could always say, "Well, if you don't like my $15m/yr #3 pitcher, the Angels, Dodgers and Blue Jays are most certainly interested, and I just spoke with Brian Cashman". Yeah, something like that.

Now, as you've mentioned, he doesn't have the negotiating tactic, which could even be used if he doesn't have a single other team that's seriously interested.

Now then, after paying in excess of $40m, what happens if the winning team says, "We'll pay him $11m/yr over 4 seasons, and possibly more for 6 seasons"? Someone's gotta blink, and who knows which side will cave in and back off from their original goals (cheapskate for the team; wildly overpriced for Bora$).

ChrisLDuncan

11-13-2006, 11:02 PM

That would be a rough fraction of the contract A-Rod got with Texas. (252 Million)

That is alot of money to spend. It's not as much of a risk as people are making it out to be. I believe Matsuzaka has a chance to dominate opponents with that shuuto pitch of his.

Yeah but A-Rod's the best player in baseball, atleast at the time of his contract he was...Matsuzaka is an unproven commodity. Plus that would be more than Santana makes.

EvanAparra

11-13-2006, 11:03 PM

Yeah but A-Rod's the best player in baseball, atleast at the time of his contract he was...Matsuzaka is an unproven commodity. Plus that would be more than Santana makes.
That will change the next time Santana is a free agent.

ChrisLDuncan

11-13-2006, 11:10 PM

That will change the next time Santana is a free agent.

I think they locked him up long term didn't they? And if they didn't yes it will. Even though he isn't getting the negotiation fee that still has to be paid.

Biggtone23

11-13-2006, 11:43 PM

Japanesse Pitchers
Hideki Irabu 34-35
Kaz Ishii 39-34
Hideo Nomo 123-109
Tomo Ohka 48-58
Mac Suzuki 16-31
Masato Yoshi 32-47
Kaz Sasaki 129 saves

This is definetly a lot of money for a big risk. He could be the pitching verison of Ichiro, but then again he could be the Tsuyoshi Shingo.

I personally wouldn't put too much stock in his performance in the WBC he only pitched 3 games. We've seen alot of pitchers have a dominant few weeks but once the league sees them a 2nd time around it gets a little more difficult. He beat Tiawan, Mexico and Cuba. The Tiawanesse are not really known for their offense (5 runs in their 3 games), Mexico only started 5 major leaguers in his game (Cantu, Durazo, Castilla, Luis Gonzalez and Adrian Gonzalez) and well I got give you Cuba. I'm not trying to take away from what the guy did, but just saying let's all just calm down a bit.

EvanAparra

11-13-2006, 11:54 PM

I'm not trying to take away from what the guy did, but just saying let's all just calm down a bit.
How are people being un-calm? Except for a couple Sox fans that might think this guarantees a championship, everyone here has been saying that he could be a big flop, this is too much money, this is a big mistake... ect..

Rookie1914

11-14-2006, 12:03 AM

wigglestrue

11-14-2006, 12:30 AM

Here are some more thorough studies of Matsuzaka:

http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2006/10/daisuke-matsuzaka.html
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/baseball/mlb/11/10/extramustard.matsuzaka/index.html
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=11061&st=680&p=517661&#entry517661

sandlot

11-14-2006, 03:45 AM

Not winning this ridiculous bidding process is another smart move by Cashman. Just by getting into the game, he's managed to get Boston to spend a large amount of money for negotiating rights, with no guarantee of success, and that's dough could have been spent on other talent that's definitely available (and by tossing a chip on the table, who knows, he could have gotten lucky). I agree that these millions can be constructed in lots of ways that are less onerous than the amounts sound to those of who can't dream of a check with that many zeroes, but at the end of the day there has to be money to pay off the deal. If Boston doesn't get Matzusuka, they've dropped a bundle for nothing and he'll negotiate next year with a good idea what he's worth, and his current team will have zero to say about it because he'll be an FA. If that were to happen, Cashman might get his services for a lot less that what his rivals spent for the pleasure of negotiating with Scott Boras. The other thing is, if you think NY has pitching problems, just look at the Red Sox. The Yanks are actually in a position of relative strength. As much as I'd like to see the guy pitching in NY, I'm happy to wait if that's how it works out.

wigglestrue

11-14-2006, 03:49 AM

You're wrong on two counts, at least.

#1 - The bid is not paid if no deal is signed.
#2 - Matsuzaka is not a FA next year, this will happen all over again.

Also, you're wrong about the Sox being less able to spend on FA.
It's going to be an expensive and busy offseason.

rwolfe09

11-14-2006, 05:08 AM

wigglestrue

11-14-2006, 05:12 AM

Absolutely no way.
The posting bid is going to be spent on Matsuzaka.
They are not going to "buy" prospects from the Mets.
Anyway, it'd have to be something absurd like...
Pelfrey + Milledge + FMart + Carp + ...
Well, you get the point.

rwolfe09

11-14-2006, 06:17 AM

Well, the idea I was talking about was actually involving people like Pelfrey, Milledge and Heilman to name a few. I mean I don't remember where I heard the idea but it sorta made some what of sense.

wigglestrue

11-14-2006, 06:38 AM

Neither side would ever do it.

Mattingly

11-14-2006, 02:14 PM

A big possibility that I see happening is that..the Red Sox win the bid, sign Matsuzaka then trade him to a team (NY Mets). They could get the $$ back and get some good pitchers (IE: Aaron Heilman). And a team (the Mets) would be quite possibly willing to trade for a pitcher due to their depleted rotation.

Sound right?
To my knowledge, when a team signs an FA who's new to the team, they cannot trade him for an entire season. I'm not sure of the exact timeframe, but for a multi-year deal, I believe this to be true.

If it's only for a 1-year deal and the player's new to the team, this may mean, in effect, a no-trade clause. I could be wrong on something here.

Anyway, you can't just sign him to take him off the market, then trade him to whomever you feel like it.

As to the likelihood that another team doing this, I've known Fred Wilpon, the Mets' owner, to be cheap in many ways. He only started spending big around 2002, but Steve Phillips (last season on ESPN reading from some script handed to him, I've heard) sold him overprized players like Mo Vaughn, Roger Cedeno, Jeromy Burnitz, a (surprisingly) non-performing Robert Alomar, etc.

Under Omar Minaya, Wilpon and his sons have spent considerably more, which has garnered much greater success, per the quality of players (Pedro, Beltran, Delgado, etc) who were called aboard.

I think that the Mets, despite their relatively new-found willingness to spend, cannot be expected to pay a large portion of the Red Sox' posting fee even if such an expensive player were traded.

I also believe that it would be a no-brainer that Scott Boras of all people, would demand a no-trade clause on this before a contract is agreed upon. Perhaps they could hammer out a limited no-trade, such as to 6 teams that Matsuzaka wouldn't accept a trade to, as it's possible that with all those megabucks being thrown around and negotiations being limited to one team exclusively, the rules could be bent in either party's (player's or team's) favor.

Still, I don't see the Mets doing this. Then again, I didn't see the Red Sox being the highest bidder, especially for 50% more than what I'd previously thought would've been the winning bid.

mac195

11-14-2006, 07:44 PM

I'd like to know how big a deal Matsuzaka is over there.
I figure he's pretty huge, since he was the WBC mvp.
And it seems like he's been a center of attention since his HS days.
But is he anything like a "rock star", like Hideki?
Obviously not as adored as Hideki, but in the same ballpark?

He's very popular, maybe about as big a star as Ichiro was when he played in Japan, but not quite in Matsui's league. If Matsuzaka is very successful with the Red Sox though, I think he could become as popular as any sports star in Japan. He has been a leading topic in news broadcasts here the past couple days.

Rookie1914

11-14-2006, 08:02 PM

This is too funny. It reminds me of when Cole Hamels entered the bigs. He was going to single-handedly take baseball to a new level...Pedro Martinez keeps a picture of Cole Hamels under his hat for inspiration.

Matsuzaka will be bigger than Honda, Toyota, and Nissan combined in the great USA. He will leap tall buildings :laugh This is too funny. He hasn't thrown one pitch in the majors and all the hype :D

Cole Hamels Tall Tales (http://mysite.verizon.net/heyjude421/chf/chf.html) - Enjoy!

I guess in years to come, we will be discussing Matsuzaka in here as being better than Mr. Johnson and Mr. Alexander. I will read about him in every baseball magazine for years to come, because he is going to be that great :lookitup He may even rule over the world, of course only if he wants to.

W_Marone

11-14-2006, 08:08 PM

Rookie1914

11-14-2006, 08:47 PM

To be honest Rookie, living in the Philadelphia area, I heard about Cole Hamels' great game down in Wilkes-Barre, but never heard mass hype around him, but i guess I may not consider mass hype the same as others, I dont remember his face being on ESPN all the time like Matusuzaka's is when they talk about baseball. I never heard that he was going to change the game....he didnt get hype anywhere close to this guy. Not even in Philly really, he was just a great pitcher who was coming up to pitch who had pitched outstanding in Triple A.

Well, my wife knows a ton of NFL players, but only the Cubs when it comes to MLB and she knew all too well about Cole Hamels as he was hyped big time. He was hyped as much or more than Mark Prior coming up with the Cubbies. I think this Matsuzaka will be less than Cole Hamels though. Cole will be really good barring injury.

Dasperp

11-14-2006, 10:04 PM

The Yankees get a cut of broadcast rights in Japan, and Japanese advertisements plaster the walls of the Stadium, in addition to the MASSIVE jersey and merchandise sales in Japan. The Yankees are doing all right there.

International TV broadcasts and all merchandise sales are shared evenly among all MLB teams. The only extra money a japanese player would bring in is ticket sales and stadium advertising

wigglestrue

11-14-2006, 10:10 PM

YES and NESN are owned by each team.
That revenue is not shared like merchandise or general MLB TV rights.
YES is established in Japan, now it's up to the Sox to establish NESN.

Dasperp

11-14-2006, 10:45 PM

YES and NESN are owned by each team.
That revenue is not shared like merchandise or general MLB TV rights.
YES is established in Japan, now it's up to the Sox to establish NESN

Can you cite an article saying that YES broadcasts in Japan? i haven't seen it mentioned anywhere. Even if they can, they can't broadcast actual games, only other programming. The CBA says that MLB international has exclusive rights to negotiate broadcast of MLB games overseas

EvanAparra

11-14-2006, 10:53 PM

Can you cite an article saying that YES broadcasts in Japan? i haven't seen it mentioned anywhere. Even if they can, they can't broadcast actual games, only other programming. The CBA says that MLB international has exclusive rights to negotiate broadcast of MLB games overseas
I've also heard that YES broadcasts in Japan, but dont know if its true yet.

wigglestrue

11-14-2006, 11:10 PM

YES does broadcast in Japan, but you're right, the broadcast rights are shared. My mistake. However, there is a "marketing partnership" that YES has with the Giants, in which they sell each other programming. As far as I know, pre-game shows, post-game shows, and re-broadcasts are not shared. Also, the in-stadium ads are not shared. And there is MUCH, MUCH more room to place ads in Fenway. I can foresee it becoming "Adway Park", and honestly I don't care if every inch of open space is plastered with ads, if seating sections are named the "Sony Bleachers", if the naming rights to innings are sold (Welcome to the Honda 7th inning)...the Sox have researched the issue and will recoup enough revenue to make the "astronomical" bid look more than reasonable.

Mattingly

11-15-2006, 12:23 AM

Someone mentioned to me (on this board, I think) that the posting fee, reported to be $51m, will be tax-deducible as a business expense. Has anyone heard of this before?

EvanAparra

11-15-2006, 12:43 AM

Someone mentioned to me (on this board, I think) that the posting fee, reported to be $51m, will be tax-deducible as a business expense. Has anyone heard of this before?
I know PhilWings mentioned it earlier, although i'm not sure if he was really sure about it or just speculating.

wigglestrue

11-15-2006, 01:18 AM

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2006/11/boras_thinks_so.html

Boras said that his sources in Japan estimated that the Yankees make about $21 million off Matsui through advertising and marketing. With that blueprint in place, the Red Sox merely followed it by trying to obtain their own Japanese star with dollar-power.

"make"...not "made".

That leads me to think 21M per year. Obviously, the Sox won't be able to capitalize on Matsuzaka as much as the Yankees have capitalized on Matsui...but still, even half of that over 4 years = most of the posting bid recouped. Maybe I'm reading that wrong, though. Thoughts?

EvanAparra

11-15-2006, 01:58 AM

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2006/11/boras_thinks_so.html

"make"...not "made".

That leads me to think 21M per year. Obviously, the Sox won't be able to capitalize on Matsuzaka as much as the Yankees have capitalized on Matsui...but still, even half of that over 4 years = most of the posting bid recouped. Maybe I'm reading that wrong, though. Thoughts?
Wouldnt be surprising. John Henry didnt get to where he is throwing his money away on pipe dreams. He knows what he's doing.

efin98

11-15-2006, 04:43 AM

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2006/11/boras_thinks_so.html

"make"...not "made".

That leads me to think 21M per year. Obviously, the Sox won't be able to capitalize on Matsuzaka as much as the Yankees have capitalized on Matsui...but still, even half of that over 4 years = most of the posting bid recouped. Maybe I'm reading that wrong, though. Thoughts?

Simple math has them making a profit in three years at $17.05 million, in four years at $13 million a year, in five years at $10.25 million a year- entirely doable if he is half as good as he is expected.

wigglestrue

11-15-2006, 04:52 AM

Well, considering the prevailing sentiment among some that the Sox would never be able to recoup this "ridiculous" posting bid...I didn't want to be so bold as to raise the idea that they could actually make a profit from it. But I think you're right! :)

J.P

11-15-2006, 07:54 AM

Rookie1914

11-15-2006, 08:07 AM

Someone mentioned to me (on this board, I think) that the posting fee, reported to be $51m, will be tax-deducible as a business expense. Has anyone heard of this before?

I'm sure with the right CPA firm it could be :eek:

wigglestrue

11-15-2006, 08:08 AM

So let me get this straight, 51 mill just for a chance at signing the guy???????!!!!! I hope he throws a 150 mph fastball with control, plus has dominion of all the breaking balls in the books, plus a new killer pitch we've never even seem............

Fastball's about 93-96, which is about 150 kilometers per hour. He does indeed have a plethora of breaking pitches, up to 5 or 6 depending on who you ask. And yes, he's working on that new killer pitch we've never seen.

Rookie1914

11-15-2006, 08:24 AM

MAJOR HONORS:
1999 Pacific League Rookie of the Year
2001 Sawamura Award (top pitcher in Japan)
2006 World Baseball Classic MVP

Other than the MVP, where has he been award-wise since 2001? $51 million to a guy who has been quiet except for a hot streak winning MVP in the WBC...? He will be laughing all the way to the bank :laugh Just like CHAN HO PARK - HE ISN'T EVEN CLOSE TO THE MONEY HE MADE.

Since 2002 Chan Ho has averaged 9 wins for approximately $12.8 million, that equates to a bad signing. I guess that 1 all-star appearance really meant something. He hasn't won anything since :rolleyes:

Dasperp

11-15-2006, 09:25 AM

That leads me to think 21M per year. Obviously, the Sox won't be able to capitalize on Matsuzaka as much as the Yankees have capitalized on Matsui...but still, even half of that over 4 years = most of the posting bid recouped. Maybe I'm reading that wrong, though. Thoughts?

I have a tough time believing it is that much. If it were, then why weren't the Mets bidding $60m? They have even more revenue potential to gain then the Red Sox do.

baseball economist Andrew Zimbalist "estimated that the Sox might gain no more than $3 million a year by cashing in on the Japanese icon"

http://tinyurl.com/y5fv2z

wigglestrue

11-15-2006, 09:28 AM

Well, 3 million x 4 = 12 million.
51 million - 12 million = 39 million.
i.e., just enough to beat the reported 38M Mets bid.
So worst case scenario, the added revenue makes up that margin.

But I have a feeling the Sox ownership is going to find novel ways.

Mattingly

11-15-2006, 10:57 AM

Simple math has them making a profit in three years at $17.05 million, in four years at $13 million a year, in five years at $10.25 million a year- entirely doable if he is half as good as he is expected.
That's interesting. If you're referring to "them" as being the Boston Red Sox, then my simple math indicates they'd have to make $51.1m more in revenue just to break even from what the Yanks made off Matsui, since Matsui came in as an FA.

I really think that all ticket prices will go even higher, as well as the prices of jerseys, t-shirts, etc. I'm starting to wonder how much those Monster seats will go for.

I'll have to see how Boston sets up NESN in Japan. Right now, I believe that the BoSox have their work cut out for them as to turning a profit that stays exclusively with themselves, isn't shared by the other 29 teams.

=============

I'm thinking of posting a separate thread, but how much do people think he'll be signed for (per year), and for how many years?

jeterMVP

11-15-2006, 11:04 AM

just for negotiating rights

the new "Evil Empire" reign begins

Honus Wagner Rules

11-15-2006, 11:07 AM

That is just INSANE!!!! :crazy

wigglestrue

11-15-2006, 11:13 AM

Mattingly

11-15-2006, 11:36 AM

But "breaking even" isn't the only goal.
Let alone making a profit.

Subsidizing the bid to a point where it would be more than reasonable...
Where the total "loss" of the bid is, say, 20 million...
That would be quite a good thing, too.

Also, you mentioned "exclusive" profit...
What does it matter if the profit is exclusive or not?
1/30th of the total merchandise revenue is still money.
So the other 29 teams get an equal cut, oh well.
They don't get to acquire Matsuzaka is the point.
And that 1/30th still counts toward making up the bid.
So if breaking even isn't the point, nor is making a profit, then what exactly is the point?

To me, as I'm trying to say, is that it's far harder to create a profit if the winning posting fee is $51.1m than if it's $30m. Only one team has to pay that fee, and only one team has that pitcher.

I'm not sure what you mean by "total loss". Are you saying that the Red Sox won't make a profit on this over the length of time that Matsuzaka is expected to stay with the team?

As to "exclusive profit", since profits from the sale of merchandise is shared (I'm unsure if this is for all sales (such as team clubhouse shops, stores, etc), or just mlb.com sales), then if, say, the BoSox make $150m in revenue from some mlb.com shop deal. After the advertising, manufacturing and other expenses, that's $5m/team less expenses. That's far more than what can be expected in revenue off a single pitcher, and divided by 30, still doesn't yield much when you consider the initial expense.

What will the Boston Red Sox do to regain the $51.1m? I don't consider a team taking a loss for the luxury of having an ace on their team, to be economically viable. I believe they'd need to get back the money they'd spent. The "return on investment" thing. I'm wide open on hearing likely ideas.

wigglestrue

11-15-2006, 12:16 PM

So if breaking even isn't the point, nor is making a profit, then what exactly is the point?

Recouping some or most of the bid.

To me, as I'm trying to say, is that it's far harder to create a profit if the winning posting fee is $51.1m than if it's $30m. Only one team has to pay that fee, and only one team has that pitcher.

True. But then again, the astronomical bid itself has made the story that much bigger, and given the Red Sox that much more exposure, which will only serve to heighten interest in Japan. :)

I'm not sure what you mean by "total loss". Are you saying that the Red Sox won't make a profit on this over the length of time that Matsuzaka is expected to stay with the team?

Maybe not, but if they make enough back in added revenue to offset the bid by, say, 50% -- isn't that pretty good? If they make an extra 25 million over the next 4 years...yeah, that's still a 25+ million "lost" on the bid...but had they bid 25 million, they wouldn't have won the rights, and there wouldn't be that added revenue anyway. So it'd be 50-25=25 million as the final cost of the bid and the right to negotiate with Matsuzaka, vs. 0-0=0 million as the cost of not winning the bid and seeing Matsuzaka pitch for another team. Am I making sense?

As to "exclusive profit", since profits from the sale of merchandise is shared (I'm unsure if this is for all sales (such as team clubhouse shops, stores, etc), or just mlb.com sales), then if, say, the BoSox make $150m in revenue from some mlb.com shop deal. After the advertising, manufacturing and other expenses, that's $5m/team less expenses. That's far more than what can be expected in revenue off a single pitcher, and divided by 30, still doesn't yield much when you consider the initial expense.

Where are these figures from?

What will the Boston Red Sox do to regain the $51.1m? I don't consider a team taking a loss for the luxury of having an ace on their team, to be economically viable. I believe they'd need to get back the money they'd spent. The "return on investment" thing. I'm wide open on hearing likely ideas.

Why is it not viable to take a loss for an ace?????? That's absurd. Sorry.

If your team had won the rights, we'd be hearing none of this.
Meanwhile, I'd be complaining 24/7 about the Sox FO being chickens***.

EvanAparra

11-15-2006, 12:35 PM

haha this is getting hilarious....

one side (mostly yankee fans) saying "its too much money, they aren't going to be able to make it back, ect..."

the other (mostly Sox fans) saying "we can make it back in broadcasting and merch sales, blah blah blah"

This would all probably be reversed had the Yankees made the 50 mil bid.

Here's my take on it. It's an absurd amount of money. He's not worth that much money. They probably won't make it back ONLY because of him. They are NOT only doing it to make money. They are trying to beat the Yankees and win a World Series. They overpaid, they know that, we ALL know this.
Who cares if they dont make every dollar back of that 51.1 million, I doubt that was their goal the whole time.

EvanAparra

11-15-2006, 12:39 PM

So if breaking even isn't the point, nor is making a profit, then what exactly is the point?
WINNING. Remember that part of baseball?
What will the Boston Red Sox do to regain the $51.1m? I don't consider a team taking a loss for the luxury of having an ace on their team, to be economically viable. I believe they'd need to get back the money they'd spent. The "return on investment" thing. I'm wide open on hearing likely ideas.
The return on the investment is on the field, they're not trying to make money here, which is ALL anyone is talking about. There's stilla game to be played, which is what he's brought here to do. Its really sad that there's more talk about this money than there is about how everyone thinks he will do. Why is everyone all of a sudden an accountant?

I answered it above.

wigglestrue

11-15-2006, 12:47 PM

Oh, right, jesus. Winning. I totally forgot about that. LOL.
Got sucked into a recouping-the-bid logical black hole.

EvanAparra

11-15-2006, 12:49 PM

Oh, right, jesus. Winning. I totally forgot about that. LOL.
Got sucked into a recouping-the-bid logical black hole.

I mean really... would you rather win a world series, or make sure every dollar goes back into John Henry's pocket? I'll take a World Series if at all possible.

Evangelion

11-15-2006, 01:21 PM

Logic dead when it coming to baseball, contract, money and pitchers. Since the need for pitchers has become higher in recent years, that's what happens when you have more teams in MLB, you end up with a shortage of decent pitchers. So, teams will be willing to spend far beyond reasonable amount of money to obtain a pitcher, even average level pitcher like Lilly will make good cash.

By the way, these owners have this type of money, they just don't spend it a lot of during FA season. Even Steinbrenner doesn't spend all his money. Lol, the money might seem ridiculous to use since we'll never likely see that type of money in our lives, it's not that ridiculous when you consider how rich the owner(s) of these clubs would be.

As for the Red Sox being the new "Evil Empire", that's ridiculous considering this amount of money on a pitcher isn't that surprising. If New York, or any team with money, got the chance to sign a Santana, they'll spend a ridiculous amount of money to do so since that's how you approach FA pitcher. You might not agree with the logic of spending this much money on a mere pitcher, but the shortage of pitchers on teams has created it.

Every season, teams look to fix problems in rotation. Very rarely you see a team "Ok" with it's rotation after the season.

Mattingly

11-15-2006, 01:28 PM

WINNING. Remember that part of baseball?

The return on the investment is on the field, they're not trying to make money here, which is ALL anyone is talking about. There's stilla game to be played, which is what he's brought here to do. Its really sad that there's more talk about this money than there is about how everyone thinks he will do. Why is everyone all of a sudden an accountant?

I answered it above.
I've edited your post only for coding. I've not added nor removed any text; only the coding to make this into a true quote, of which I'm replying. Otherwise, your text couldn't be quoted properly by myself.

Considering the size of the contract, I think it's worthy. When Alex Rodriguez was signed for an astronomical amount, people were talking only about the amount. When the Yanks have spent on Jeter, Giambi and others, people spoke about the amount. When the Red Sox spent on Manny, people talked about the amount. Now it's about winning.

2006 was about Matsuzaka's best season, but he didn't have as good a season around 2003-05. The WBC (and the resulting MVP) is obviously (at least to myself) why he'd had the attention. This coming in March when most MLB players weren't at their best. He pitched well, but I still think it's excessive to pay so much.

Granted, I wouldn't have minded if the winning bid was $25-30m, but when it was mentioned that bidding could go as high as $30m, it seemed likely that it could surpass that, just to insure that the trio of the Yanks, BoSox and Mets wouldn't all come in with about the same amount.

There's still no guarantee how well he'll do in the USA. He could be an A+ pitcher, but will he be the next Roger Clemens or Pedro Martinez? That's not guaranteed. Will he have a lengthy career? That's not guaranteed either.

While I presume he'll have a very good to excellent 2007 season, he still has to get used to Fenway's shallow LF, the fans, the offense, Varitek, and of course, them Damned Yankees.

There's no guarantee in anything. That of course includes whether or not the Red Sox will win the division and the playoffs. Just remember, with Johan Santana (but lacking Liriano), the Twins won the AL Central. However, they got swept in the ALDS. Will Matsuzaka be the next Santana? Like I said, no guarantees.

Mattingly

11-15-2006, 01:40 PM

Recouping some or most of the bid.
If you make the top bid, I think you'd need to recoup 100% of this before turning a profit. It would take at least the full 6 years of service as a RS player before a profit can be turned, I believe. If not, there would have to be nothing but Japanese banners and ads at Fenway.
True. But then again, the astronomical bid itself has made the story that much bigger, and given the Red Sox that much more exposure, which will only serve to heighten interest in Japan. :)
It'll heighten interest, but how much money will that translate into? People will have to watch Red Sox games in which he pitches, and obviously those in which he doesn't (the other 130 games). Will NESN be shown all over Japan?
Maybe not, but if they make enough back in added revenue to offset the bid by, say, 50% -- isn't that pretty good? If they make an extra 25 million over the next 4 years...yeah, that's still a 25+ million "lost" on the bid...but had they bid 25 million, they wouldn't have won the rights, and there wouldn't be that added revenue anyway. So it'd be 50-25=25 million as the final cost of the bid and the right to negotiate with Matsuzaka, vs. 0-0=0 million as the cost of not winning the bid and seeing Matsuzaka pitch for another team. Am I making sense?
If they make 50% of the bid through marketing in Japan, that may be "pretty good". They'd still need to sell tons of stuff related to him at the stadium, then find out some kind of mechanism to market him, using means that aren't shared by other MLB teams. If you make tons of money off him, but the other 29 teams share in this, then they're getting "free money" from your marketing. Only the "exclusive" stuff will help out the BoSox specifically.
Where are these figures from?
I was using made-up figures, like an example. If you have a crazy number of merchandise with his name and number on it, with the $150m figure being chosen out of the air by myself, you share that with 29 other teams, that's only $5m/team. That would put not much money into the Red Sox' pocket if it's shared equally, since there are also manufacturing and merchandising costs (including advertising) involved.
Why is it not viable to take a loss for an ace?????? That's absurd. Sorry.

If your team had won the rights, we'd be hearing none of this.

Meanwhile, I'd be complaining 24/7 about the Sox FO being chickens***.
This to me would be like paying $25m/yr for Johan Santana. Or perhaps even more. This would at least be an ace in MLB.

If the Yanks had indeed won the bid, would you still feel that overpaying for an ace would've been OK? Or would it have been the "Yanks are trying to buy the pennant" thing, as people often say? To me, it's a 2-way street, in that if you feel my view would've changed, I could also say that yours would've changed had the Yanks won this.

I'd have preferred the Yanks had won, true, but not for $51.1m. $30m to me is already overpaying. When you add another $21.1m to that amount, then it just goes into crazy levels.

I wish him well, but he'd definitely have to prove himself in the MLB, including against the Yanks and Blue Jays. No guarantees on anything, regardless of the price paid.

J.P

11-15-2006, 02:32 PM

Rookie1914

11-15-2006, 02:35 PM

EvanAparra

11-15-2006, 02:38 PM

Has anybody stopped to think, what if he cant be a superstar at this level for the next, lets say 5-6 years, what if he blows his elbow his first Spring Training game, I mean, 51 mill, just for a chance of signing him, its just waaaaaaaayyyyyyy too much $.
Same thing for every big player. What if you sign Santana to a 100 mil deal and he blows out his arm and can never play again?

Rookie1914

11-15-2006, 02:39 PM

Has anybody stopped to think, what if he cant be a superstar at this level for the next, lets say 5-6 years, what if he blows his elbow his first Spring Training game, I mean, 51 mill, just for a chance of signing him, its just waaaaaaaayyyyyyy too much $.

Yep, he may never be a superstar *shrug*

I think this is the Marlins payroll (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/salaries?team=fla): $14.3 million
I think this is the Yankees payroll (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/salaries?team=nyy): $198.6 million

wigglestrue

11-15-2006, 02:43 PM

If the Yanks had indeed won the bid, would you still feel that overpaying for an ace would've been OK? Or would it have been the "Yanks are trying to buy the pennant" thing, as people often say? To me, it's a 2-way street, in that if you feel my view would've changed, I could also say that yours would've changed had the Yanks won this.

Check my posts on redsoxnation.net -- I'm "FourthBase"
I was pretty upset that the Sox didn't pony up for Abreu.
I was also upset that they balked on the Oswalt deal.
Before that, I pissed and moaned about Pedro leaving...
...and Johnny Damon, and Derek Lowe...
I felt they were too concerned about the luxury tax.
And not concerned enough about gamesmanship with their rival.

I have indeed reminded Yankee fans who needed reminding that despite the Sox having the 2nd largest payroll they still operate at or below the luxury threshhold and are still trailing the Yankees payroll by about 50%...but I never (well, rarely -- not sure what I said about Randy Johnson, lol) whine about the Yankees buying players, because they can and if they can they should.

Rookie1914

11-15-2006, 02:54 PM

Yep, because all that people remember in the end is the record books and how many rings. As a Cubs fan, I hate the #10 now :rolleyes:

Mattingly

11-15-2006, 03:27 PM

Same thing for every big player. What if you sign Santana to a 100 mil deal and he blows out his arm and can never play again?
In "Let's Pretend-Land", if Johan Santana had refused an arbitration offer from the Twins, was an FA right now, do you really believe that anybody would offer $51.1m to a Japanese pitcher? No cultural disrespect implied, but he'd have to be able to do this in MLB, not over there.

Hideo Nomo is often considered the first Japanese pitcher here. Have any of them ever been of the caliber of a Clemens, Santana or a Pedro? If Matsuzaka is indeed the one, he'd be a very rare commodity in being a superstar over there and over here.

Only Ichiro Suzuki has done this. The Yanks' very own Hideki Matsui was a superstar over there, but not as much as over here (unless you count his large Japanese media contingent). Now if he'd hit as well as Manny Ramirez ...

I guess I'll just be beating this drum until the first pitch by him is thrown. Even then, I'll still talk about the first season he's had, and then subsequent seasons.

Yeah, I'll be here awhile. :D

Check my posts on redsoxnation.net -- I'm "FourthBase"
I was pretty upset that the Sox didn't pony up for Abreu.
I was also upset that they balked on the Oswalt deal.
Before that, I pissed and moaned about Pedro leaving...
...and Johnny Damon, and Derek Lowe...
I felt they were too concerned about the luxury tax.
And not concerned enough about gamesmanship with their rival.
I'll try replying to your post later on. In the manwhile, you may try including the name of the person you're quoting (myself in this case). That way, people know who you're "talking" to.

As to another board, I'm not going over there. If you have comments, please post them in the Red Sox forum. There's an active thread there about Matsuzaka, so please feel free to post your thoughts in there.

wigglestrue

11-15-2006, 03:30 PM

Whoa, I was just posting my bona fides as someone who is not a hypocrite.
Didn't intend to converse about what I posted at all.

Will do that quote thing in the future, sorry.

Dasperp

11-15-2006, 04:58 PM

Ticket prices are too high now. $30 gets you nose-bleed seats. Jerseys are high enough too. I can't imagine how things are going to shake out. Families won't be able to afford to go see games, then we'll see what happens when those new stadiums aren't packed and they have to schedule bon jovi and the rolling stones to play gigs there to recoup some of the costs

Teams set ticket prices based on maximizing profit. They wouldn't raise them to the point where they wouldn't be able to sell enough tickets. MLB teams are making more money then ever, and that is why this offseason is going to be insane. The Red Sox are making plenty of money to pay out this fee, it's just a decision by Henry to take in less profit in exchange for a better shot at winning

mac195

11-15-2006, 05:28 PM

It'll heighten interest, but how much money will that translate into? People will have to watch Red Sox games in which he pitches, and obviously those in which he doesn't (the other 130 games). Will NESN be shown all over Japan?
I watch Yankee, Mariner and White Sox games on NHK, the main Japanese public TV network, which picks up the broadcasts of the home teams. One or two games are shown almost every day of the season. I expect most or all of the games Matsuzaka pitches will also be shown on NHK. I don't know the figures, but I can't believe more than a tiny fraction of fans in Japan actually have YES in their satellite package, or would buy NESN.

Rookie1914

11-15-2006, 08:51 PM

Teams set ticket prices based on maximizing profit. They wouldn't raise them to the point where they wouldn't be able to sell enough tickets. MLB teams are making more money then ever, and that is why this offseason is going to be insane. The Red Sox are making plenty of money to pay out this fee, it's just a decision by Henry to take in less profit in exchange for a better shot at winning

I am saying they are getting close to their ceiling for high ticket prices. You can't keep raising them year by year by ridiculous percentages and expect to fill the stadiums.

efin98

11-16-2006, 01:30 AM

I am saying they are getting close to their ceiling for high ticket prices. You can't keep raising them year by year by ridiculous percentages and expect to fill the stadiums.

Except they are filling them to capacity every year in Boston despite the highest prices in the game. Want far exceeds availability, the fans will still pay for tickets to get in despite the high costs.

Mattingly

11-16-2006, 06:16 AM

I watch Yankee, Mariner and White Sox games on NHK, the main Japanese public TV network, which picks up the broadcasts of the home teams. One or two games are shown almost every day of the season. I expect most or all of the games Matsuzaka pitches will also be shown on NHK. I don't know the figures, but I can't believe more than a tiny fraction of fans in Japan actually have YES in their satellite package, or would buy NESN.
Thanks. You know offhand if NHK has any licensing deals with the teams (and/or MLB itself) to show MLB games? Do both teams playing split the profits from international TV rights?

Rookie1914

11-16-2006, 07:26 AM

Mattingly

11-16-2006, 08:09 AM

Except they are filling them to capacity every year in Boston despite the highest prices in the game. Want far exceeds availability, the fans will still pay for tickets to get in despite the high costs.
I think that's where the Red Sox' issue comes into play. Fenway only holds 35,000. They had to add revenue by creating the Monster seats. At least the color matches the wall, so people didn't feel like they were in some ugly addition that obviously didn't belong there, were created only for revenue.

Anyway, what's the likelihood of them making additional profit on a small stadium that's almost always sold out every single game? If this were Shea Stadium or Yankee Stadium, you'd get 55,000 fans every game, including midweek games against poor-performing teams. You increase the mid-week gate receipts, that's a way to up the profit margin. With the stadium already sold out, I see that further increasing ticket prices as being the only way to pay for this.

wigglestrue

11-16-2006, 08:22 AM

There will be other ways, trust me.
Sox fans couldn't care less about "ugly additions".
We're happy enough that Fenway still exists.
If every inch of free space is covered with ads...
We don't care if the place looks like a NASCAR suit.
As long as the ticket prices are stable (no increases this year)...
As long as the added revenue allows for FA signings...
We're down for whatever creative revenue schemes the owners want.

J.P

11-16-2006, 08:22 AM

Same thing for every big player. What if you sign Santana to a 100 mil deal and he blows out his arm and can never play again?

Yup, but they are paying 50 millions just for a CHANCE at signing, plus, Santana is a proven Cy Young winner, I think I dont mind taking that risk, this guy hasn't proved anything this side of the hemisphere.

EvanAparra

11-16-2006, 09:52 AM

Mattingly

11-16-2006, 10:10 AM

EvanAparra

11-16-2006, 10:36 AM

We? How many other Red Sox fans here agree with this?
I do for the most part. Not the ad stuff, but that's going to happen either way.

plask_stirlac

11-16-2006, 10:37 AM

Ticket prices are too high now. $30 gets you nose-bleed seats. Jerseys are high enough too. I can't imagine how things are going to shake out. Families won't be able to afford to go see games, then we'll see what happens :waving when those new stadiums aren't packed and they have to schedule bon jovi and the rolling stones to play gigs there to recoup some of the costs :laugh

Well then families won't go (but they will, it will just cost more for some teams). Do you see how many men go there in groups, or couples without children? Guys between 18-49 will fill the Fenway seats regardless of price.

Rookie1914

11-16-2006, 10:55 AM

Well then families won't go (but they will, it will just cost more for some teams). Do you see how many men go there in groups, or couples without children? Guys between 18-49 will fill the Fenway seats regardless of price.

Time will tell. I don't believe it for one minute. I am waiting to see which sport prices itself out first. I doubt the NFL will, because there are only 8 home games. MLB stands a good chance. That's really sad that families aren't considered. There will be a lot less baseball followers in the future. Like you all say, it's kinda boring sometime during regular season anyway :noidea They lost a lot of fans during the '94 season. Keep it up and see what transpires...

wigglestrue

11-16-2006, 11:09 AM

Rookie1914

11-16-2006, 11:14 AM

To take a page from Evan's book: Winning creates baseball followers. Think of how many Red Sox fans there were before the post-2004 bandwagon. Most of them watched the team on TV. I don't think pricing out whole families from attending games together would matter much. One parent can still attend a game with one child at a time. ;) And again, Fenway ticket prices did not go up this year. And there are still many discounted "family games".

One child at a time? That is ridiculous. Free tv games will disappear in the future. Just like my college basketball games. I had to purchase ESPN "Ful Court" to watch what was free last year. They don't need to go up, they are already high enough. You are watching overpriced millionaires play a game! I am not arguing this point for me. I see it coming though. Then people will be like - what happened man :noidea

wigglestrue

11-16-2006, 11:16 AM

But you know what else will also happen in the future?
Holographic TV games. So everything evens out in the end.

:)

EvanAparra

11-16-2006, 11:18 AM

I'm already paying to watch baseball... I've paid $80 a year for the last 2 years for mlb.tv, and I think im going to get Extra Innings next year, although i'm not sure on the pricing on that yet.

Rookie1914

11-16-2006, 11:27 AM

Well then families won't go (but they will, it will just cost more for some teams). Do you see how many men go there in groups, or couples without children? Guys between 18-49 will fill the Fenway seats regardless of price.

LOL. Most guys 18-35 don't have 2 pennies to rub together, let alone pay jacked up prices for a baseball game. How many men do I see in groups? How would you or I know if they are in a group without asking them? Maybe the couples don't have children yet and when they do, they may quit attending as it costs too much.

What does this mean??? "but they will, it will just cost more for some teams"

wigglestrue

11-16-2006, 11:43 AM

plask_stirlac

11-16-2006, 12:48 PM

Most guys 18-35 don't go to Fenway, but out of the 35,000 seats quite a few do. It's like Theo meets Entourage meets cell phones.

Baseball on TV is going to show fewer "free" games? There are as many on weekdays now as the weekends, NOT counting FSN or other local like NESN. Broadcasters must love baseball, after every half-inning there's a commercial break. It's much different than college sports.

Are you in Illinois and having to pay for Illini games? And there's a Big Ten network coming, I think they'll be fairly represented there, on ESPN, and on FSN without getting Full-Court.

Rookie1914

11-16-2006, 02:12 PM

Most guys in their 20's don't have kids.
They have more disposable income.
They spend it on things like baseball games.
They go with buddies or bring a girlfriend.

BTW, to get tickets to Fenway as it is now...
You have to pay 100%-500% markups.
And still people are paying that.

A lot of guys in their 20's have kids. Look around you. I waited until I was 32. I have more disposable income than I ever had in my 20's, but think prices are too high regardless.

Rookie1914

11-16-2006, 02:14 PM

wigglestrue

11-16-2006, 02:27 PM

A lot of guys in their 20's have kids. Look around you. I waited until I was 32. I have more disposable income than I ever had in my 20's, but think prices are too high regardless.

I said most (i.e., 51%+) didn't have kids.
That still leaves room for a lot that do.

:cool:

Most guys 18-35 don't go to Fenway, but out of the 35,000 seats quite a few do. It's like Theo meets Entourage meets cell phones.

:laugh So true.

Rookie1914

11-16-2006, 02:32 PM

"It's like Theo meets Entourage meets cell phones."

What does that mean? I am lost, sorry :D

hellborn

11-16-2006, 03:08 PM

I think that's where the Red Sox' issue comes into play. Fenway only holds 35,000. They had to add revenue by creating the Monster seats. At least the color matches the wall, so people didn't feel like they were in some ugly addition that obviously didn't belong there, were created only for revenue.

Anyway, what's the likelihood of them making additional profit on a small stadium that's almost always sold out every single game? If this were Shea Stadium or Yankee Stadium, you'd get 55,000 fans every game, including midweek games against poor-performing teams. You increase the mid-week gate receipts, that's a way to up the profit margin. With the stadium already sold out, I see that further increasing ticket prices as being the only way to pay for this.
You think that the Monster seats are 1/10th as ugly as the plastic plants out by the monuments at Yankee? Or those orange, blue, etc, seats from the '70s renovation that George finally got rid of a couple years ago? It's to make a cow laugh to talk about anything at Fenway being anywhere near as ugly as that stuff... ;)
I think that the Bosox could increase ticket prices quite a bit and still sell out. I believe that a huge percentage of Bosox tickets end up being resold at usurious prices (including every ticket that I've ever bought), so a great many fans are already paying 2X face or more. I'd certainly pay $80 or more for the grandstand seats that I usually end up with if only I could actually buy them from the Bosox before they sell out. Boston is a pretty wealthy area, too...there's an awful lot of people doing really well around here.
Bosox management is "losing" a lot of money by not being able to tap into the money the resellers are making.

hellborn

11-16-2006, 03:11 PM

Yup, but they are paying 50 millions just for a CHANCE at signing, plus, Santana is a proven Cy Young winner, I think I dont mind taking that risk, this guy hasn't proved anything this side of the hemisphere.
They don't pay a thing if they don't sign the guy!!!
They are not paying for the CHANCE, they only pay if there ends up being a contract.
BIG difference!!!

hellborn

11-16-2006, 03:16 PM

LOL. Most guys 18-35 don't have 2 pennies to rub together, let alone pay jacked up prices for a baseball game. How many men do I see in groups? How would you or I know if they are in a group without asking them? Maybe the couples don't have children yet and when they do, they may quit attending as it costs too much.

What does this mean??? "but they will, it will just cost more for some teams"
When I was 20-30, meaningless baseball games is a prime example of EXACTLY what I spent what money I had on...no kids to worry about, often just renting a cheap apartment, making pretty decent money that left me with a good chunk of disposable income. My friends and I spent like crazy on road trips, sports tickets, alcohol, gstrings, eating out every day, etc.
I wasn't rich, but I had no responsibilities, and I was going to have fun no matter what it cost!!!

Mattingly

11-17-2006, 01:12 AM

You think that the Monster seats are 1/10th as ugly as the plastic plants out by the monuments at Yankee? Or those orange, blue, etc, seats from the '70s renovation that George finally got rid of a couple years ago? It's to make a cow laugh to talk about anything at Fenway being anywhere near as ugly as that stuff... ;)
I think that the Bosox could increase ticket prices quite a bit and still sell out. I believe that a huge percentage of Bosox tickets end up being resold at usurious prices (including every ticket that I've ever bought), so a great many fans are already paying 2X face or more. I'd certainly pay $80 or more for the grandstand seats that I usually end up with if only I could actually buy them from the Bosox before they sell out. Boston is a pretty wealthy area, too...there's an awful lot of people doing really well around here.
Bosox management is "losing" a lot of money by not being able to tap into the money the resellers are making.
Did you read the part where I said *DIDN'T* look ugly? Please re-read my quote, as seen in your own post. I wasn't saying the Monster seats were ugly. I was commenting that the seats matched the wall, so fans *DIDN'T* think they were getting ugly additions.

I'm quite sure that a lot of stadiums have had ugly parts, but perhaps the Stadium & Ballparks forum may better serve the purpose of such a thread.

As to tapping the Fenway wealth, people have often criticized George for wanting to tap into the wealth of the NYC area with the luxury seats that the new YS-III will have. From what I've remembered about George over the years, the things he's complained about are the rent (I think that NYC owns it, but I'm not sure), the safety of the area, and getting tax abatements (George has threatened to move to NJ back in the '80s).

Yankee Stadium is in the South Bronx, moved there so that Giants fans could see it directly from the former Polo Grounds. Still, the South Bronx was a pretty run-down area some 20 years ago. Safety for night games was a big issue. I think it was then-Mayor Rudy Giuliani whose plan to fix up the various areas that helped to transform the safety issue.

Anyway, NYC is a very rich area also, but George has been criticized for wanting more and more luxury seats (including by myself). If the Red Sox do the very same thing, I believe they should expect the same criticism. I don't go along with any philosophy whereby it's bad only when the Yanks do something. If the same action is taken, I believe that equal reaction (positive or critical) should follow.

Gotta run.

VTSoxFan

11-17-2006, 05:53 AM

I may be mistaken, but I seem to remember hearing some interview with Larry Lucchino about the renovation and prices for the new seats, and he said something about how once they had gotten in all the dugout seats and removed that ghastly aquarium called the .406 Club, and gotten in all these pricey new seats, they'd see what they can do about increasing the number and/or comfort level for us groundlings -- the ones who can't afford the Monster Seats or $85 field-level box seats. But the grandstand seats are already packed in tight as sardines (and are about as comfortable to sit on as a can of sardines); I don't see how they can squeeze in any more "inexpensive" seats.

I think they really have to crack down on the ticket dealers who buy up blocks of seats and sell them for many times face-value. That would go a long way to letting us plebians get to see a few games.

Rookie1914

11-17-2006, 07:26 AM

"It's like Theo meets Entourage meets cell phones."

What does that mean? I am lost, sorry :D

What does this mean???

hellborn

11-17-2006, 07:31 AM

Did you read the part where I said *DIDN'T* look ugly? Please re-read my quote, as seen in your own post. I wasn't saying the Monster seats were ugly. I was commenting that the seats matched the wall, so fans *DIDN'T* think they were getting ugly additions.

I'm quite sure that a lot of stadiums have had ugly parts, but perhaps the Stadium & Ballparks forum may better serve the purpose of such a thread.

As to tapping the Fenway wealth, people have often criticized George for wanting to tap into the wealth of the NYC area with the luxury seats that the new YS-III will have. From what I've remembered about George over the years, the things he's complained about are the rent (I think that NYC owns it, but I'm not sure), the safety of the area, and getting tax abatements (George has threatened to move to NJ back in the '80s).

Yankee Stadium is in the South Bronx, moved there so that Giants fans could see it directly from the former Polo Grounds. Still, the South Bronx was a pretty run-down area some 20 years ago. Safety for night games was a big issue. I think it was then-Mayor Rudy Giuliani whose plan to fix up the various areas that helped to transform the safety issue.

Anyway, NYC is a very rich area also, but George has been criticized for wanting more and more luxury seats (including by myself). If the Red Sox do the very same thing, I believe they should expect the same criticism. I don't go along with any philosophy whereby it's bad only when the Yanks do something. If the same action is taken, I believe that equal reaction (positive or critical) should follow.

Gotta run.
I apologize, I thought that you were being sarcastic about the Monster seats. My mistake.

I don't really have problems with teams trying to maximize revenue, except when they totally screw up a ballpark's design in that quest (like when Reinsdorf made New Comiskey even worse by cramming extra luxury boxes into a basically completed design and making the upper deck ridiculously high and steep). I don't have a problem with the Yanks making use of their high revenues, although I have certainly made comments on them throwing money around indiscriminately at some marginal or questionable players. If the system allows the Yankees to improve their team with their greater revenue stream, they have an obligation to their fans to do so. I don't think that the current situation is good for baseball in general, but you can't just blame that on the Yankees.
Of course, the presence the Yanks in the same division puts that much more pressure on the Bosox to get whatever they can out of their little park. I just gotta think that John Henry and Co are still looking very seriously at a new park.

Concerning Matsuzaka...if he can play a key role in bringing the another WS win, or more than one, in the next few years, the bidding fee will be easily recouped. Everything that I've heard about him from baseball people suggests that he has the potential to be a top ML starter. The structure of the bidding does seem to make posting a large bidding fee and trying to minimize the value of the contract negotiated, given the lack of competition, a viable strategy. The Bosox lost a lot of the fan interest that they built up in '03-04 with the poor results last season...I think that management is also doing what it can to send a clear signal that they are taking BIG steps to rectify the situation.

J.P

11-17-2006, 08:30 AM

I do for the most part. Not the ad stuff, but that's going to happen either way.

Big deal, 13 innings of work against the likes of China, Mexico and Cuba;then I guess Adan Stern and Brent Willemburg deserve to be signed to multi million contracts, I mean, they were 1 and 3 in the batting race.

EvanAparra

11-17-2006, 09:05 AM

Big deal, 13 innings of work against the likes of China, Mexico and Cuba;then I guess Adan Stern and Brent Willemburg deserve to be signed to multi million contracts, I mean, they were 1 and 3 in the batting race.
Hmm.. you said he hasnt done anything on this side of the world, and i proved you wrong. I didnt say it was a huge deal, so relax.

J.P

11-17-2006, 02:13 PM

You know what I meant when I said he hasnt proven anything this side of the world, maybe next time I'll b more specific and say that he hasn't done anything at the MLB level(the highest level of baseball by far).

tigers527

12-12-2006, 12:31 AM

Mattingly

12-12-2006, 01:49 AM

I have to say, I think the RedSox played this one incredibly well. More less telling the Japanese league team to either fork over some of that bidding money to differ that costs of signing Matsuzaka, or give it all back when the open negotiating expires. So either the Sox get a potentially very good starter for a reasonable price (just ask Gil Mesche), or they don't...but no one else gets him either.

I wonder if this might lead to change the way the Japanese players are selected?

Sorry to dig up this older thread....but I just loved the way this whole thing played itself out. And I am not even a Sox fan, but NICE work on this one fellows.
I don't think that the Seibu Lions should be expected to pay any of the money to the pitcher to offset the posting fee. To me, 100% of this should go to the receiving team.

To me, if you bid extremely high, then you're fully responsible for paying this, and shouldn't ask for discounts later on. If a change to the system is made, it's that all bidding teams agree not to ask any Japanese team to use the bid amount as a cushion to the resulting player contract. They should be independent of one another (the money the MLB team pays to both the Japanese team and their former player).

Can you imagine if the Yanks' Brian Cashman did this, telling the Japanese team that they'd have to pay a much lower salary to the player if the Japanese team didn't pay the player on the side?

As to the way it's all worked out, it's not even a done deal yet. It's Tuesday morning by me, not Friday when the deadline would've passed.

ChrisLDuncan

12-12-2006, 02:46 AM

I don't think that the Seibu Lions should be expected to pay any of the money to the pitcher to offset the posting fee. To me, 100% of this should go to the receiving team.

To me, if you bid extremely high, then you're fully responsible for paying this, and shouldn't ask for discounts later on. If a change to the system is made, it's that all bidding teams agree not to ask any Japanese team to use the bid amount as a cushion to the resulting player contract. They should be independent of one another (the money the MLB team pays to both the Japanese team and their former player).

Can you imagine if the Yanks' Brian Cashman did this, telling the Japanese team that they'd have to pay a much lower salary to the player if the Japanese team didn't pay the player on the side?

As to the way it's all worked out, it's not even a done deal yet. It's Tuesday morning by me, not Friday when the deadline would've passed.

I totally agree, I mean you can't offer a huge posting fee and skimp on the salary, that would be like like a chick going all out on the make up, but still going out on dates in sweatpants and uggs...can't happen, or any other ensamble as equally offensive to the eye.

EvanAparra

12-12-2006, 03:16 AM

I love that its only the Yankee fans saying the Sox should have to pay tons of money for him.

Mattingly

12-12-2006, 03:43 AM

I love that its only the Yankee fans saying the Sox should have to pay tons of money for him.
It's not our team that's paying the huge rate. Still, if I thought that he was right for the team and Cashman had paid some $40m or so, I'd be willing to give him $12-13m over 4 seasons.

It was Boston's decision to go another $10m above and beyond this. I say if they're willing to do that, then the amount paid to the player shouldn't be lessened. To me, it's like you're saying that he's worth beyond uber exorbitancy to acquire, but once they got to the bargaining table, they showed up with clipped coupons from the Sunday papers.

I can agree upon not overspending in total for the rights to acquire him (posting fee + salary), but sooner or later, if DM is so valuable a player, I think he should get paid. If not, then I feel that there could be a JD Drew style "out clause" in there, so that if he excels, he could then get market rate as a free agent.

When you're talking <$10m/yr, I believe that given the bidding teams' strong desire to acquire him, I believe that this is less than I'd expect. Perhaps in the $12-13m range would be more appropriate. If they can get this back over 4 seasons, with a possible 5th year option, that may be more worthwhile.

My feelings on this as a Yankee fan is simply how I feel about the situation, not the team that's in it. If Brian Cashman were doing this, I'd expect the same $12-13m to be paid to him also, but on a deal >3 yrs.

EvanAparra

12-12-2006, 03:45 AM

My feelings on this as a Yankee fan is simply how I feel about the situation, not the team that's in it. If Brian Cashman were doing this, I'd expect the same $12-13m to be paid to him also, but on a deal >3 yrs.
Matt, I think 12-13 is reasonable, but i'm hearing people say that 12 is lowballing and it should be at least 15, and I find that somewhat ridiculous.

Mattingly

12-12-2006, 04:10 AM

Matt, I think 12-13 is reasonable, but i'm hearing people say that 12 is lowballing and it should be at least 15, and I find that somewhat ridiculous.
My feeling is that his record before the WBA wasn't spectacular. However, he's still highly desirable. With that said, I believe he should be paid between what the Lillys and Meches of the baseball world get, and what the Schmidts and Zitos get. He still has to show what he can do over a full season in the AL East, then do it all over again a few times.

Boston could've paid $100m for that posting fee for all I care. They still have to pay the pitcher. It's my belief that if you want someone so bad, then you pay him somewhat accordingly. Had his record been accomplished on US (and Canadian) soil in the MLB, where there wouldn't be a posting fee, I think that he'd be in line for some Zito-type money and a longer contract than the 4 years he's expected to sign, given that he's only 26.

To me, Lucchino and Bora$ are both playing power games, each thinking they've got the upper hand. Me thinks that Lucchino feels that since he's the only suitor, plus that he's bid so highly, that he can drop the price low. If so, then I wouldn't really expect DM to accept arbitration if offered.

Bora$, on the other hand, seems to think that he's the only agent for a player who must be signed right now. He's been quoted as thinking Mats could go for $100m. I don't know in which day and age, but unless he has 3 years mimicking vintage Pedro or Johan Santana, I'm not too sure about this. I'd have to see the goods before I can say the price matches the product (or service).

An addendum on my feelings as a Yankee fan on this: I wouldn't want Cashman bidding >$50m for this guy's service. He could be awesome, but then again, he could be a bust. I'll wish him well, but once the price skyrockets to the moon, the risk of on-field rewards automatically increases as well, I'd like to think. If $40m would've won it, wasn't $10m above the next bid, I could've dealt with that, felt that $12-13m offer would be fair. For an excessive $51.1m, I may think $11-12m, but I don't think you can go below this for that kind of hotly-desired pitcher. The fact alone that he's been hotly pursued by only a few select well-monied teams should up the ante a bit come his own payday, not just the team's, I feel.

As to $15m being reasonable, I'd say they should wait 'til later. Using Gary Sheffield's $13m deal as an example of what the Yanks were willing to pay, Hideki Matsui's agent (Arn Tellem, I think) said that Matsui should get the same. So it's Matsui, Damon and the since-traded Sheffield all getting $13m/yr. Using the same thing, if Matsuzaka gets $12m/yr over the next 3-4 seasons, he could make much more, as Matsui got $7m x 3 yrs, and to my knowledge, Matsui was just as big a star in Japan as Ichiro Suzuki and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Moral of the story (if any morals even exist when talking huge gigabuck$): wait until the contract is to be renewed before asking for the huge chunk of pocket change. :)

ChrisLDuncan

12-12-2006, 12:18 PM

I love that its only the Yankee fans saying the Sox should have to pay tons of money for him.

Hey I'm just saying that because of the huge posting fee, and yes you are right 12-13 mill is reasonable...15 is "lowballing" it when you're trying to get a guy to raise the offer from 7-8 or even 10.

wigglestrue

12-12-2006, 12:36 PM

12 million per year for four years should do it.
Seeing as it's Boras, maybe 13 million.
No out clause.

Captain Cold Nose

12-12-2006, 12:40 PM

12 million per year for four years should do it.
Seeing as it's Boras, maybe 13 million.
No out clause.
You're basing this on?

tigers527

12-12-2006, 12:41 PM

It is my understanding, that the RedSox aren't trying to lowball the player. They are trying to get the Seibu Lions to pay them back some of that 51 million to offset the costs of the likely 12-15 mil per year Matsuzaka is looking to get from the Sox. I think that was pretty smooth of the Sox, and would say the same thing if the Yanks did it.

It is called "bidding to negotiate" not "pay the team to make a garenteed contract". If anything I always thought that the Japanese teams held a position of power in the way this system works. The RedSox just put that system, or at least who has the power into question, which I fully support. Cause' anything that could lead this system to eventually giving a shot to the "less thens"* to get a Japanese league player, I am in favor of.

*note less thens refers to the Twins, Royals, Marlins, and the other bottom 1/4 in payroll teams.

Biggtone23

12-12-2006, 03:19 PM

Yeah that was discussed last week and the commissioners office said they werent allowed to do it. Your bid is your final bid you can not change it even if it would still be more than the next highest bid.

The amount of money it takes to sign a player after winning the bid is something you must consider before making your bid. I think this was bad planning by the Red Sox. They blew out everyother team in the bidding process and then balked at signing him because Boras wanted too much money. Did they not see this coming?

SoxSon

12-12-2006, 03:24 PM

To me, Lucchino and Bora$ are both playing power games, each thinking they've got the upper hand. Me thinks that Lucchino feels that since he's the only suitor, plus that he's bid so highly, that he can drop the price low. If so, then I wouldn't really expect DM to accept arbitration if offered.

I haven't read this entire thread, so forgive me if I missed this, Mattingly, but has Boras even counter-offered Boston's intial offer? There's no question in my mind that Matsuzaka isn't worth the equivalent of what proven MLB pitchers are getting, so it seems less than all right to me for Boras to virtually ignore the initial offer, regardless of how paltry he found it. Isn't that the whole point of negotiating? Without a counter-offer, it seems to me like Boras isn't fulfilling his responsibility here.

SoxSon

12-12-2006, 03:29 PM

I think this was bad planning by the Red Sox. They blew out everyother team in the bidding process and then balked at signing him because Boras wanted too much money. Did they not see this coming?

I'm really not too much of a homer normally, but I think that the Sox most likely knew full well that Boras would have ridiculous expectations with Matsuzaka. Depending on your perspective and personal "conspiracy theory," this may be an example of superb planning by a ballclub.

EvanAparra

12-12-2006, 03:31 PM

I'm really not too much of a homer normally, but I think that the Sox most likely knew full well that Boras would have ridiculous expectations with Matsuzaka.

Yeah, i dont see Theo sitting in his office thinking "Well, maybe Scott will give us a discount this time." Yeah, right, and the Cubs are winning the series next year.

SoxSon

12-12-2006, 03:43 PM

Yeah, i dont see Theo sitting in his office thinking "Well, maybe Scott will give us a discount this time." Yeah, right, and the Cubs are winning the series next year.

Boras doesn't exactly have a history of doing that. :laugh

Biggtone23

12-12-2006, 04:25 PM

I'm not sure I understand what your saying SoxSox with the superb planning. Unless you mean that all along they just wanted to keep Matsuzaka off the market for another year.

ChrisLDuncan

12-12-2006, 09:47 PM

There's no question in my mind that Matsuzaka isn't worth the equivalent of what proven MLB pitchers are getting

But the posting fee is fine, and you're counting on him for something?

ChrisLDuncan

12-12-2006, 09:48 PM

Yeah, i dont see Theo sitting in his office thinking "Well, maybe Scott will give us a discount this time." Yeah, right, and the Cubs are winning the series next year.

I'd take the odds on Boras giving him a discount over the Cubbies.

Evangelion

12-13-2006, 12:29 AM

But the posting fee is fine, and you're counting on him for something?
If you're ok with the posting fee, then shouldn't you be ok with Boston factoring the posting fee while discussing a contract with Matsuzaka?

Mattingly

12-13-2006, 04:50 AM

I haven't read this entire thread, so forgive me if I missed this, Mattingly, but has Boras even counter-offered Boston's intial offer? There's no question in my mind that Matsuzaka isn't worth the equivalent of what proven MLB pitchers are getting, so it seems less than all right to me for Boras to virtually ignore the initial offer, regardless of how paltry he found it. Isn't that the whole point of negotiating? Without a counter-offer, it seems to me like Boras isn't fulfilling his responsibility here.
That seems to be Bora$' power game MO: ignore the original offer, hope they'll re-up the thing. To me, that's cheesy.

Even if he did counter, by way of some press conference (no, I haven't watched this) that said something about Mats being worth $100m (over 6-7 years or what?), the fact that Bora$ thinks he's worth at least $15m seems worthy of the description of the power game I'm referring to.

If Bora$ hasn't yet filed a formal "counter offer" that's written and presumably delivered to Theo/Larry before Messrs Gammons and Olney get their paws on it, then I believe his negotiation tactics would be questionable at best, and in bad faith at worst.

wigglestrue

12-13-2006, 05:37 AM

LOL, 6 years at 11 million per is all it will take.
The Sox better get this done.

Captain Cold Nose

12-13-2006, 05:40 AM

LOL, 6 years at 11 million per is all it will take.
The Sox better get this done.
Glad you're still confident, Theo.

wigglestrue

12-13-2006, 05:42 AM

Huh?

http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/redSox/?p=794

wigglestrue

12-13-2006, 10:21 AM

http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/redSox/?p=795

On the plane.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v293/mymoleskine/casablanca/091_watch_plane_to_lisbonne.jpg

Sankhara-dukkha

12-13-2006, 10:23 AM

The sight seems to be bogged down. Are you saying matsuzaka is on the plane, or the plane is leaving without him?

wigglestrue

12-13-2006, 10:26 AM

Matsuzaka is on the plane.

wigglestrue

12-13-2006, 12:25 PM

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/baseball/mlb/12/13/matsuzaka.signs/index.html

6 years...52 MILLION.

EvanAparra

12-13-2006, 12:28 PM

Lol. I was reading about how boras wanted 11 per, and the sox wanted 8 per..

Man, not even Boras was trying to suck out as many dollars from the Sox as some members here. (just foolin with you guys)

tigers527

12-13-2006, 04:01 PM

Just heard dude was signed 6 years @ 52 Million. Not to shabby, but not quite as much as people were thinking. Still I know I am off to my back yard to work on my gyroball. :D

Jose Reyes

12-13-2006, 04:08 PM

I think it's a good deal for the Red Sox. He got less money than Gil Meche!

hudsonharden

12-13-2006, 04:35 PM

RoyallyWise

12-13-2006, 05:29 PM

Well the 51 million doesnt count towards the cap. Im surprised they got him for under 10 milion a year. The real winner here is that Japanese team who gets 51 million dollars. If he woulda waited a year he woulda got 15 million, and overall the team would have to pay less money. It woulda been win win for him and whoever he signed with. The media and fan pressure on the sox really got the ball rolling.

G.Costanza

12-14-2006, 03:33 AM

Overall, that's 6 years/ $103 million if you include the posting fee. A lot for a guy who was never pitched in the majors. I'd be nervous if I were Epstein, Japanese pitchers don't have a great track record in the MLB. I hope for his sake that this guy is the exception.
You'd be nervous?Thats why there are people who know about the game who get paid big bucks to evaluate talent called scouts.And "the exeption" is just ignorant, more of there pitchers to come over have been sucessful than the ones that havent,but im sure youre tunning in to watch Ohka toe the hill every time around the rotation.I'd be ecstatic if the mets got him,anybody who watched this guy and doughts his stuff never stood in the box from 60 feet 6 inches at a pro-ball level,thats for sure.