How much of an influence will the Asian players have on MLB?

[Mattingly]

Since we're currently in the middle of what I consider "Matsuzaka-mania" with his bids, I figured I'd ask how much of a market there would be for Asian players. We've already got superstars from Japan in Ichiro Suzuki and HIdeki Matsui. There is also Chien-Ming Wang, So Taguchi, Tadahito Iguchi, etc.

This seems much like Fernando-mania, re the eyes-rolling, Mexican-born LHP who was the ace of LAD's WS-winning team. However, since MLB teams are very thirsty for new, fresh talent, how many others will follow along upon Matsuzaka's coattails and come aboard, play very well over here?

I feel that this NY Times article examines this a bit. Please feel free to comment. :)


Shuji Kajiyama/Associated Press
Daisuke Matsuzaka, a pitcher for the Seibu Lions, is waiting for the highest bidder from
major league teams.

Asians Give Major Leagues More Options to Consider (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/07/sports/baseball/07chass.html?_r=1&ref=baseball&oref=slogin)

The season may be over, but this is international week in Major League Baseball.

A major league all-star team is finishing a five-game series in Japan against Japanese all-stars; teams are submitting huge bids for a Japanese pitcher; a Japanese third baseman has also become available; a free-agent South Korean outfielder has declared himself available to major league teams; and baseball officials are talking about playing in China in the not-too-distant future.

It’s a foreign festival.

The teams pursuing Daisuke Matsuzaka — the Mets, the Yankees and the Red Sox among them — know exactly what they seek. Lee Byung-kyu, on the other hand, can cause all sorts of confusion.

Lee is the South Korean outfielder whose availability was announced last week by his American representatives, the Beverly Hills Sports Council. The only problem is the agents didn’t offer any clear-cut way of identifying their client from all the other Lees who are standout baseball players in South Korea.

When the Koreans beat the United States in the World Baseball Classic in March, they had five Lees, including Byung-kyu, in their lineup.

When they knocked off Japan in a second-round game, then lost to Japan in the semifinals, the first three batters in the lineup and five of the first six were named Lee.

But the No. 1 Lee is Seung-yeop, whose 56 home runs in 2003 broke Sadaharu Oh’s Asian record and who had five home runs after Korea’s first five games in the Classic, the fifth against Dontrelle Willis of the Florida Marlins.

[hubkittel]

i think it's great that the asian players are starting to come over to mlb. we want the very best players that the game has over here playing. it can only be good for the game.

it reminds me of the nhl. in the late 70's and early 80's you had the beginning of an influx of foreign players as teams started picking up swedes, americans, and the odd east european defector. in the early nineties, after the fall of the iron curtain, you had a huge wave of russian players. the league went from being 90%+ canadian players to probably now somewhere around 50/60%.

the foreign players in the nhl had a huge impact on the game and how it was played to the point where today the game is more "european" than it is "canadian". the european and russian style of play has completely overtaken the north american style.

i'm not sure that the influx of foreign players into mlb will have the same effect that it did in the nhl. baseball is a more mature, developed sport than hockey was when the foreign "invasion" took place. the europeans were playing almost a completely different game than was being played in nhl. the same can not be said for the japanese and latin american ballplayers coming into mlb.

[tommybaseball]

In my opinion, the only true Asian "Superstar" that has played in the Major Leagues has been Ichiro, and I'm a Yankee fan. Hideki Matsui has been a top of the line player, but not a "Superstar." Chien-Mieng Wang has the potential to be a "Superstar."
If you look at the career of Hideo Nomo, he was certainly a good pitcher, but never won 20 games (he won 16 games 3 times).
Hideki Irabu was touted by Bobby Valentine to be the Asian Nolan Ryan. That didn't pan out!
I do think it's great that all nations send their best players to the Majors. Let's wait though before we tout anyone as a "Superstar".

[Mattingly]

In my opinion, the only true Asian "Superstar" that has played in the Major Leagues has been Ichiro, and I'm a Yankee fan. Hideki Matsui has been a top of the line player, but not a "Superstar." Chien-Mieng Wang has the potential to be a "Superstar."
If you look at the career of Hideo Nomo, he was certainly a good pitcher, but never won 20 games (he won 16 games 3 times).
Hideki Irabu was touted by Bobby Valentine to be the Asian Nolan Ryan. That didn't pan out!
I do think it's great that all nations send their best players to the Majors. Let's wait though before we tout anyone as a "Superstar".
I'd meant "superstar" for Hideki Matsui in Japan. Since he was called the "Michael Jordan of Japanese baseball", I believe that would fit the bill. Considering his huge Japanese press entourage, I think they still feel highly about him. His playing performance, I'll readily admit, has not been as good as Ichiro Suzuki's, but he still maintains star billing, I feel.

I don't remember the name of the Japanese pitcher you're referring to, but I do remember during Valentine's managerial tenure, the Mets having acquired a pitcher they'd touted as "the next Greg Maddux (either him or Nolan Ryan)". That I can't even remember his name shows that he as an individual must not have been very special.

However, I do hope to see more players from Korea, Taiwan, Japan, China playing for MLB teams. Since people constantly talk about the slim pickings, expanding the geographical horizons a bit could prove useful.

[jalbright]

There isn't going to be any flood of Japanese imports for the foreseeable future. They've got to go nine seasons with the big club once they get into that system, and the teams aren't likely to start posting them before they have at least seven. The bottom line is the faucet is set on a pace to allow a few players to drip from the Japanese leagues to the majors, but that's all--and the guys who will come will rarely be here before their late twenties.

Jim Albright

[Brian McKenna]

There isn't going to be any flood of Japanese imports for the foreseeable future. They've got to go nine seasons with the big club once they get into that system, and the teams aren't likely to start posting them before they have at least seven. The bottom line is the faucet is set on a pace to allow a few players to drip from the Japanese leagues to the majors, but that's all--and the guys who will come will rarely be here before their late twenties.

Jim Albright

Do you think that at some point the players will unite and change this?

[Mattingly]

There isn't going to be any flood of Japanese imports for the foreseeable future. They've got to go nine seasons with the big club once they get into that system, and the teams aren't likely to start posting them before they have at least seven. The bottom line is the faucet is set on a pace to allow a few players to drip from the Japanese leagues to the majors, but that's all--and the guys who will come will rarely be here before their late twenties.

Jim Albright
I've realized that for awhile. Why is that? There's a rule in their by-laws or something that players must play for 9 years before they become free agents? Is this similar to the old "reserve clause" thing that Curt Flood went to court about in the MLB?

[tigers527]

I for one, would like to see more players from the Asian countries that have MLB talent in their midst, come on over to play here. If for the little bit of "oneupsmanship" (is that a word?) over the IOC (International Olympic Commitee) who has ommited baseball from the Olympics. It was stated that baseball did not have enough international support to merit the event. Those folks in the know, have said, it has more to do with MLB not cowtowing to the IOC and breaking mid season to have all the best players play, in the Olympics. Whatever the real reason, anything that makes MLB more international puts just that much more egg on the IOCs face, and hey there's always the WBC to figure out best v best from each country.

The one thing that I think should change about the way MLB handles the players from the Japanese leagues in specific and all players from "outside" the world of the drafted players (Cubans, Japanese etc.). Is MLB should open them all up to the draft. Now, I know that would not ensure that the team "drafting" a Japanese league player will get him signed. It would give the team that drafted said player exclusive rights to negotiate, with that player and that players Japanese team, until next years draft (just like when high school talent opts for college). That, at least a little bit would level the playing field when it comes to this talent pool. It seems the way it is now, that every talented Japanese or Cuban player has an almost automatic stop in NY, before others even get a shot (I know Ichiro went to the Mariners). Maybe the Japanese league teams would end up taking a little less money from say the KC Royals.....if they knew they would have to sit on that player for another year, and the Royals are offering 1.5 million now? Giving all the teams a fair shot at all these pretty good ready made MLBers, seems like it would help the overall product.....not that it seems MLB is interested in the overall product. Not that I would want baseball parity, like they have in the NFL....but giving everyone a chance at these fine players does seem fair, or at least fairer.

[jalbright]

Do you think that at some point the players will unite and change this?

Not in the near future. It took the threatened disbanding of a team (and the immediate unemployment of 1/12 of their members) to get the player's union there to stage their first strike, which lasted only a couple of days--and had widespread public support. Otherwise, the Japanese player's union has been a doormat by western standards. When it comes to negotiations, they can only be represented by Japanese lawyers, and then each lawyer can only represent a few players. Apparently Japanese law also doesn't take the dim view of a contract in perpetuity that American law does, so their reserve clause is valid unless the Japanese baseball CBA changes it.

Really the only reason there's free agency is their dominant team, the Yomiuri Giants, is the New York Yankees plus--they not only have money and are willing to spend it, but the Japanese game comes dangerously close to bowing and scraping to their wishes (wouldn't Steinbrenner love that? ;) ), so when the Giants were down a little bit, they thought free agency would give them a boost, so, lo and behold, there was a form of free agency well suited to meet the Giants' interests at the time. The nine year period is their wait for free agency.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

I for one, would like to see more players from the Asian countries that have MLB talent in their midst, come on over to play here. If for the little bit of "oneupsmanship" (is that a word?) over the IOC (International Olympic Commitee) who has ommited baseball from the Olympics. It was stated that baseball did not have enough international support to merit the event. Those folks in the know, have said, it has more to do with MLB not cowtowing to the IOC and breaking mid season to have all the best players play, in the Olympics. Whatever the real reason, anything that makes MLB more international puts just that much more egg on the IOCs face, and hey there's always the WBC to figure out best v best from each country.

The one thing that I think should change about the way MLB handles the players from the Japanese leagues in specific and all players from "outside" the world of the drafted players (Cubans, Japanese etc.). Is MLB should open them all up to the draft. Now, I know that would not ensure that the team "drafting" a Japanese league player will get him signed. It would give the team that drafted said player exclusive rights to negotiate, with that player and that players Japanese team, until next years draft (just like when high school talent opts for college). That, at least a little bit would level the playing field when it comes to this talent pool. It seems the way it is now, that every talented Japanese or Cuban player has an almost automatic stop in NY, before others even get a shot (I know Ichiro went to the Mariners). Maybe the Japanese league teams would end up taking a little less money from say the KC Royals.....if they knew they would have to sit on that player for another year, and the Royals are offering 1.5 million now? Giving all the teams a fair shot at all these pretty good ready made MLBers, seems like it would help the overall product.....not that it seems MLB is interested in the overall product. Not that I would want baseball parity, like they have in the NFL....but giving everyone a chance at these fine players does seem fair, or at least fairer.
I can't see it happening, as the Japanese clubs would have to agree per the terms of their deal with the majors--and I can't see them agreeing to it. Some teams won't post anybody under any circumstances because the Japanese game is marketed in Japan as a uniquely Japanese product, and they desperately want to keep their home grown players as long as possible. Those teams aren't going to go for anything which fosters more departures if they can help it. The rest have a financial stake in getting the best buck they can, and your proposal undercuts that. So there's zero chance they'll go along either.

Jim Albright

[tigers527]

I can't see it happening, as the Japanese clubs would have to agree per the terms of their deal with the majors--and I can't see them agreeing to it. Some teams won't post anybody under any circumstances because the Japanese game is marketed in Japan as a uniquely Japanese product, and they desperately want to keep their home grown players as long as possible. Those teams aren't going to go for anything which fosters more departures if they can help it. The rest have a financial stake in getting the best buck they can, and your proposal undercuts that. So there's zero chance they'll go along either.

Jim Albright

I really can't see were the Japanese teams would have a choice. The power is in the MLBs hands. Granted, the MLB opens all Japanese players up to being drafted by any MLB team that would like to take a chance on getting that player. The Japanese team could (and likely would) choose to keep there rights, if the player was still in their prime, or the bid to buy the rights to the player was not high enough. But when the draft is reaching the later rounds, why not take a chance on a Japanese league 20 something PHENOM? Sure the Japanese team would likely shoot down any offers the MLB team makes, but they could not shop for bidders the way they do now.

Now if the NHL can go against the "iron curtain" and draft Russian players, why can't MLB "handle" the Japanese Baseball league "mafia" (I know, Yakuza, but I hope you see my point). It is urban legend around here (Detroit), that the Red Wings literally "smuggled", 4th round draft pick, Sergei Fedorov, out of the JLA (Joe Louis Arena, where Russia was playing an exhibition) in the trunk of a car. I think there is more truth than fiction in that tale. However, I think the location of the exhibition might be wrong. My memory of those tales...not so good.

[hubkittel]

what would happen if a japanese player just moved to america and declared himself a free agent? can a japanese player "defect" the way a cuban player can? does mlb have a relationship with japanese baseball were they recognize and honor japanese contracts? why can't we just steal all their players the way the nhl stole all the russian hockey players?

[Rapmaster]

what would happen if a japanese player just moved to america and declared himself a free agent? can a japanese player "defect" the way a cuban player can? does mlb have a relationship with japanese baseball were they recognize and honor japanese contracts? why can't we just steal all their players the way the nhl stole all the russian hockey players?

Japanese players have a lot more pride in their country and won't risk the dishonor in cheating the system.

[wigglestrue]

What about finding Japanese teenagers before they're signed in Japan?

[Mattingly]

What about finding Japanese teenagers before they're signed in Japan?
You mean like having scouting places the same way MLB clubs do in the Dominican Republic? I'm getting the impression that the Japanese clubs would feel that we'd be trying to "steal" their players. For some reason, I feel that it may be a source of Japanese pride to play for their home country first.

However, if they come over and played in colleges in the USA, they'd definitely be fair game.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

what would happen if a japanese player just moved to america and declared himself a free agent? can a japanese player "defect" the way a cuban player can? does mlb have a relationship with japanese baseball were they recognize and honor japanese contracts? why can't we just steal all their players the way the nhl stole all the russian hockey players?
There is an agreement between MLB and NBL to honor each other's contracts. If there was not an agreement then the Japanese could also come over here and "steal" players from major league teams as well.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

The teams in Japan have a rule that limit the number of foreigners on each team. I assume that Japan doesn't have any anti-discrimination laws to prohibit this? I can't imagine such a rule being allowed in the major leagues.

[jalbright]

I really can't see were the Japanese teams would have a choice. The power is in the MLBs hands. Granted, the MLB opens all Japanese players up to being drafted by any MLB team that would like to take a chance on getting that player. The Japanese team could (and likely would) choose to keep there rights, if the player was still in their prime, or the bid to buy the rights to the player was not high enough. But when the draft is reaching the later rounds, why not take a chance on a Japanese league 20 something PHENOM? Sure the Japanese team would likely shoot down any offers the MLB team makes, but they could not shop for bidders the way they do now.
The Japanese leagues have a great chance. It's called a lawsuit on breach of contract in an American court of law. The majors made the deal, and they can't unilaterally amend it now. It's there in black and white. The Japanese leagues would be mopping the floor with the majors before the case was three months old, even as slow as American justice usually is. They'd get an injunction lickety split. That's before we talk about the damage done to the inroads the majors have tried to make into the Japanese market. Doing what you're suggesting is too disastrous a course even for Bud Selig--and that's saying something.

Jim Albright

[sandlot]

The effect will eventually be huge. Korea and Japan we know about. It might take a decade before the first mainland Chinese players who are decent professional material will start showing up in any quantitiy, but beyond that we should expect a lot of talent to appear. One big problem will be negotiating with their teams and with the national sports federations, and the $30m-plus just to negotiate with Matsuzaka has hardly gone unnoticed. The Yao Ming saga was just one example, and there are others. But the MLB is already at work here.

I have never figured out why basketball has taken off in the Philippines, where height is not a widespread national feature, but baseball has not achieved equal popularity despite many years of US presence. If the Philippines did make an effort, though, I'm sure they could produce some terrific players in no time at all. They could out-DR the DR, I'm sure.

[tigers527]

The Japanese leagues have a great chance. It's called a lawsuit on breach of contract in an American court of law. The majors made the deal, and they can't unilaterally amend it now. It's there in black and white. The Japanese leagues would be mopping the floor with the majors before the case was three months old, even as slow as American justice usually is. They'd get an injunction lickety split. That's before we talk about the damage done to the inroads the majors have tried to make into the Japanese market. Doing what you're suggesting is too disastrous a course even for Bud Selig--and that's saying something.

Jim Albright

You are likely right when it comes to trying to draft every Japanese league player (since, I have no clue about the MLB/NBL agreement/contract) . My main point though, is there should be some way in which MLB can "draft" the players that are currently being offered to the highest bidder. If so it would be a little fairer to the also-rans of the MLB.

[jalbright]

You are likely right when it comes to trying to draft every Japanese league player (since, I have no clue about the MLB/NBL agreement/contract) . My main point though, is there should be some way in which MLB can "draft" the players that are currently being offered to the highest bidder. If so it would be a little fairer to the also-rans of the MLB.
My point is that it's not part of the deal between the Japanese clubs and the majors, and the Japanese clubs aren't going to go for that kind of change in the deal. The only way it happens is if the majors somehow make it worth their while to make that deal, and I have no clue what inducement would be good enough--and I doubt the majors know of one they'd be willing to make, either.

Jim Albright

[tigers527]

My point is that it's not part of the deal between the Japanese clubs and the majors, and the Japanese clubs aren't going to go for that kind of change in the deal. The only way it happens is if the majors somehow make it worth their while to make that deal, and I have no clue what inducement would be good enough--and I doubt the majors know of one they'd be willing to make, either.

Jim Albright

It was my thought that the team drafting said player, would still have to pay the NBL club for the right to negotiate with the player. I don't know if the money would be the same for the Japanese teams, as the MLB team having the exclusive rights to the player for the year would have more leverage, then how it currently works. Oh well, I guess I will spend my time trying to fix something easier.......Isreal and Palestine come to mind.

BTW could you link the details of the current deal? Or perhaps summarize them. When was the deal made and how long does it last etc?

[jalbright]

It was my thought that the team drafting said player, would still have to pay the NBL club for the right to negotiate with the player. I don't know if the money would be the same for the Japanese teams, as the MLB team having the exclusive rights to the player for the year would have more leverage, then how it currently works.
What you propose would be wise from the MLB point of view. However, the section I've bolded is why your proposal would not be acceptable to the Japanese.

As for the agreement, see this link Business Law Journal article (http://iblsjournal.typepad.com/illinois_business_law_soc/2005/10/the_love_of_the.html) for the text of the agreement, see here: The Working Agreement (http://jpbpa.net/convention/2001_e.pdf)

Jim Albright

[BoofBonser26]

I know the Indians put in a bid on the third baseman posted recently...Iwamura? Something like that.

[tigers527]

What you propose would be wise from the MLB point of view. However, the section I've bolded is why your proposal would not be acceptable to the Japanese.

As for the agreement, see this link Business Law Journal article (http://iblsjournal.typepad.com/illinois_business_law_soc/2005/10/the_love_of_the.html) for the text of the agreement, see here: The Working Agreement (http://jpbpa.net/convention/2001_e.pdf)

Jim Albright

Thanks for the links interesting, did the CBA just renewed do anything to change that, or is it the same? The one article did say the agreement went through 12/06, since it was extended, I assume no changes?...now I guess I am on to the easier solved Isreal v Palestine problem :D

Maybe MLB can handle the a "bidding negotiation" on behalf of the team drafting said player. Example, the Royals draft Ichiro. MLB then negotiates the "bid", which the Royals then have to pay (it might get a little of that cost deffered through the luxury tax? That would be luxury tax better spent then just giving cash to all the "poor" teams). To make this agreeable to most MLB teams, put in a max 2-3 year initial contract length, at which point the Japanese player becomes a free agent? That way the Japanese team would still get fair compensation, and MLB would then have a more competitive balance for the teams trying to aquire such players?

Are you next going to tell me that the MLB could not do such a thing for players arriving from Cuba? Cause, if that is the case I am just going to pull the last of my MPB (male pattern baldness) hair out. Infact maybe that would make the perfect test for drafting players not currently amatuer draft eligible. I would figure the Cuban league could not say much, giving the political body of the 2 countries involved.

Oh well, there's my 2 cents.

[jalbright]

They could do some things differently for the Cubans, but they probably won't, since things are hunky dory for the teams (the defectors have fairly low leverage) and the player's union doesn't seem to care.

If the majors chose to somehow allow teams extra cash to bid for posted players, I think they probably could do that. Heck the Japanese shouldn't mind, since that's in their economic interest. However, the teams that can be serious players in the bidding, like the Yankees, aren't going to be too happy with having to share the player pool or spend more money to keep it to themselves.

I've seen some information that Yakult Swallows 3B Iwamura has been posted as well.

Jim Albright

[tigers527]

They could do some things differently for the Cubans, but they probably won't, since things are hunky dory for the teams (the defectors have fairly low leverage) and the player's union doesn't seem to care.

Jim Albright

I don't like the Cubans just showing up and being treated much like a free agent. I would like to see them put into the amatuer draft. For the competive balance of the game, something MLB seems to really care about....NOT!!!

BTW Jim you da man....someone who knows whats going on and posts insightful thoughts. Raising the collective BB IQ at least 5 points on this website, by just showing up (15 evertime you post). Helping defer my BB IQ drain on this site :D

[jalbright]

I don't like the Cubans just showing up and being treated much like a free agent. I would like to see them put into the amatuer draft. For the competive balance of the game, something MLB seems to really care about....NOT!!!

BTW Jim you da man....someone who knows whats going on and posts insightful thoughts. Raising the collective BB IQ at least 5 points on this website, by just showing up (15 evertime you post). Helping defer my BB IQ drain on this site :D
Thanks for the kind words, but there's no way I'm smart enough in this astute group to have anything like that degree of impact. OTOH, there are discussions where anyone with several actually functional brain cells would have that kind of effect, but I try to avoid those threads. As someone once told me, if you argue with an idiot, a passerby won't be able to tell the difference between the combatants.

No question baseball doesn't give enough care to competitive balance. The best way to deal with that, though, is a real reformation of revenue sharing I discussed in this post: http://baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=669543&postcount=2

Jim Albright

[Brian McKenna]

I don't like the Cubans just showing up and being treated much like a free agent. I would like to see them put into the amateur draft. For the competitive balance of the game, something MLB seems to really care about....NOT!!!


Cubans just "show up" because of the political relationship between the US and Cuba. Obviously, if these men are considered by ML then they have spent years honing their skill, albeit not under the care of a ML team. There is no draft for other Latin players, ML teams just go out and sign a truck load to find a few gems. Should displaced Cubans then be the only ones we tax and further complicate their struggles? Should they face restrictions that other foreign-born players do not?

An international draft would be extremely complicated for many reasons like:
-respect for established foreign leagues
-the fact that some ML teams have spent decades developing and signing foreign players, particularly in Latin America, and others have not
-laws and legal system of other countries
-State Department considerations
-assimilation issues

Plus, this would be a pro/amatuer draft not the amateur draft here in the States. What effect would that have on the selection process?

One of the biggest impediments some foreign ballplayers would have in trying to make a ML team would simply be their level of training. Is the system they come from comparable to organized baseball in respects to training and development; after all, in order to get better and really excel one needs to play against the best talent over time. This would take decades to set up before a country could legitimately pump out AAA-quality ballplayers

[sandlot]

One of the biggest impediments some foreign ballplayers would have in trying to make a ML team would simply be their level of training. Is the system they come from comparable to organized baseball in respects to training and development; after all, in order to get better and really excel one needs to play against the best talent over time. This would take decades to set up before a country could legitimately pump out AAA-quality ballplayersWhile I agree with much of that you say in the rest of the post, I have to take issue here: I absolutely guarantee you that if mainland China should decide that getting Chinese into the MLB at every level from A to AAA is a national priority, you and a lot of other folks will be learning how to pronounce names in Putonghua (Mandarin) within a decade of that decision. Just one decade, not several. We Americans tend to underestimate and overestimate many things. I propose visiting your local Wal-mart and trying to count how many items in the store do not have a "Made in China" label on them. Even the items without that label will likely contain Chinese-made components. Anyone really think China can be the world's factory, but not produce baseball players from a pool of 1.3 billion people? If they produced just a few guys like Wang or Ichiro, the impact would be significant. And the coaching is already here, with more on the way. Oh, btw, what's the name of the world's top hurdler? The idenities of the top women's long-distance runners? Springboard divers? Wake-boarding Olympic gold medalist? When 500 million Chinese mothers realize that their kids can make more money by the age of 25 catching and throwing a ball than by studying medicine, watch out. They've already sorted out computer literacy to the nth degree, have broken into the Premiership in soccer, their women's soccer team is always one of the three best in the world, there is large-scale production of baseball bats, balls and gloves underway, and baseball jerseys and caps are serious fashion statements. Mastering the curveball is not far behind.

[PhilWings24]

matsuzaka's a big gamble, obviously, but i think he might be one of the league's top pitchers, and i really don't think its unrasonable to expect him to be. unfortunately, he also has a huge flopping-risk assigned to him.

In this Baseball Prospectus Article (http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5699), they translated Matsuzaka's numbers to what they likely would have been had he been in the majors, and then compared them to the most similar lines over the last 4 years.

The most similar player: Roger Clemens, 2003-2006.
Also on his comprables list; Roy Hallday, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Jason Schmidt, Josh Beckett, Pedro Martinez, Tim Hudson, and Jake Peavy.

That's almost every right handed ace in baseball.

Straight from Clay Davenport himself...


The only pitcher I would say he seems to be clearly behind is Santana. I think Clemens has been ahead, but I'm not sure you can continue to project that at a coming age-44 season. It's also safe to put Halladay and Oswalt ahead too, although the difference there is slim.

[Ichiro51]

If you look at the career of Hideo Nomo, he was certainly a good pitcher, but never won 20 games (he won 16 games 3 times).

Dodgers' offense 5 years ago was about the worst in the NL, Nomo could've easily won 20 with the ERA he put up if he was on other teams with more run support.


I don't remember the name of the Japanese pitcher you're referring to, but I do remember during Valentine's managerial tenure, the Mets having acquired a pitcher they'd touted as "the next Greg Maddux (either him or Nolan Ryan)". That I can't even remember his name shows that he as an individual must not have been very special.

Satoru Komiyama.


what would happen if a japanese player just moved to america and declared himself a free agent? can a japanese player "defect" the way a cuban player can? does mlb have a relationship with japanese baseball were they recognize and honor japanese contracts? why can't we just steal all their players the way the nhl stole all the russian hockey players?

I think Nomo and Mac Suzuki did that, Nomo's agent gave him the "retirement" tactic which worked and is the reason why the post system was invented. I think Suzuki was kickout of his Japanese HS and end up working for the Mariners who gave him a job as the clubhouse assistant, and he end up shocking people with 90+ mph fastball one day.


What about finding Japanese teenagers before they're signed in Japan?

Well, Red Sox signed a guy named Kenichiro Kawabata either in 1998 or 1999, but I think the Japanese pro league is much more structured than South Korea/Taiwan, therefore, most players and sometime their parents prefer their kids stay and finish HS/College in Japan.

This past year Takumi Hamaoka and Ryohei Shimabukuro signed with the Braves as teenagers.

[Mattingly]

Satoru Komiyama.
Thanks for looking that up for me. :D

Yeah, really the next Greg Maddux of our era. If not in ERA, then ... perhaps in Valentine's imagination. Now that he's in Japan (I believe), perhaps he knows better.

Anyway, here's the pitcher's stats for playing exclusively in 2002 as a reliever, 5.61 ERA:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/komiysa01.shtml

Well, Red Sox signed a guy named Kenichiro Kawabata either in 1998 or 1999, but I think the Japanese pro league is much more structured than South Korea/Taiwan, therefore, most players and sometime their parents prefer their kids stay and finish HS/College in Japan.

This past year Takumi Hamaoka and Ryohei Shimabukuro signed with the Braves as teenagers.
When you say that the Japanese league is much more structured, you're saying that their influence (or perhaps added to cultural persuasion, such as pride for playing for one's own country) encouraged Kenichiro Kawabata from playing for the Red Sox?

How'd they scout them? I'm guessing that the MLB teams must just set up scouts in Japan. I'm not too aware of how that's done overseas.

Minor League stats:

Takumi Hamaoka (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Takumi%20Hamaoka&pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=469233) (OF, GCL Braves)

I see NY Times this article (http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D00EFDC1F3AF932A35751C1A9619582 60) abpit Kenichiro Kawabata, but I can't find his milb.com stats anywhere.

[tigers527]

Cubans just "show up" because of the political relationship between the US and Cuba. Obviously, if these men are considered by ML then they have spent years honing their skill, albeit not under the care of a ML team. There is no draft for other Latin players, ML teams just go out and sign a truck load to find a few gems. Should displaced Cubans then be the only ones we tax and further complicate their struggles? Should they face restrictions that other foreign-born players do not?

An international draft would be extremely complicated for many reasons like:
-respect for established foreign leagues
-the fact that some ML teams have spent decades developing and signing foreign players, particularly in Latin America, and others have not
-laws and legal system of other countries
-State Department considerations
-assimilation issues

Plus, this would be a pro/amatuer draft not the amateur draft here in the States. What effect would that have on the selection process?

One of the biggest impediments some foreign ballplayers would have in trying to make a ML team would simply be their level of training. Is the system they come from comparable to organized baseball in respects to training and development; after all, in order to get better and really excel one needs to play against the best talent over time. This would take decades to set up before a country could legitimately pump out AAA-quality ballplayers

Thinking about it, you are right in regards to the other Latin players, just being signed in to the league. The big difference between the Latin players and the Cuban players and even to a lesser extent the Japanese players. Is the ladder are for the most part ready made MLBers. Whereas the former are often highly scouted and nurtured, often being traded many times before their MLB debut, making the Latin players less of a competive balance issue, as the Cuban and Japanese players, who as I said are more, less ready made MLBers.

To all the "problems" an all around draft could encounter. There is already a U.S. league that has handled problems as obsuce as having to deal with the Chinese government to attain the rights to one of their national league players. It is you guessed it the NBA.

I would just like to see the MLB draft process expanded to include all the players we are now questioning, including the Latin players. It would also be nice to see an age minimum (perhaps 18). Of course you would grandfather all the players already signed by teams, even if they are still too young. The teams that already have a strong presense in Latin America would still have an advantage, as they have surely scouted more of the players then those that do not have an active presense?

What ideally it would lead to, is perhaps an imediate impact from the first 10-20 picks in the MLB draft. Granted, I have seen that doing something like this would irritate the Japanese league teams. Perhaps spending some of the luxury tax money, to offset the revenue lost from the bidding process that the Japanese teams currently enjoy, could help?

[Ichiro51]

Thanks for looking that up for me. :D

Yeah, really the next Greg Maddux of our era. If not in ERA, then ... perhaps in Valentine's imagination. Now that he's in Japan (I believe), perhaps he knows better.

When you say that the Japanese league is much more structured, you're saying that their influence (or perhaps added to cultural persuasion, such as pride for playing for one's own country) encouraged Kenichiro Kawabata from playing for the Red Sox?

How'd they scout them? I'm guessing that the MLB teams must just set up scouts in Japan. I'm not too aware of how that's done overseas.


Well, Komiyama was 37 when he played for the Mets, obviously he wasn't at top of his game. The reason he was overhyped by the media is because he only issues about 2.3 walks per 9 inning, he came out of retirement just to play for the very respectable Valentine again. This is his stats in Japan.

http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=531

When I said Japan's baseball is more structured, I meant the baseball development and competition are better than South Korea and Taiwan. Most Japanese HS players either enters college or start pro career in Japan, instead of signing a free agent contract as a teenager and heads to a country where cultural adjustment is going to play a key role for the next couple years.

This is Kawabata's stats, nothing big. Actually there have been about 10 players who never played in Japan start their pro career in the US Minor League, but none of them has ever made past AA ball.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/K/Kenichiro-Kawabata.shtml

Just think, if you're an 18 years old or a parent of an 18 years old player in Japan, would you rather play fly across the ocean to play in a foreign country, where salary is relatively low in the Minor League compare to staying in Japan? It is not the same in South Korea or Taiwan, where salary in their pro league are also low compare to Japan, that's why the talented one either head to Japan or the US Minor League.