Defense

[ChrisLDuncan]

Is being able to rob a hit (climb the OF fence, dive, slide, or just take a way a double down the line like Brooks Robinson used to do) just as good as being able to get a hit? I don't think so; it's cool to watch, it helps your team, it keeps the score the same, if you didn't do it your team is suffering.

[Brian McKenna]

Great to hear a Brooks Robinson reference.

I would rather see a great defensive play than anything else in baseball. However, the problem with evaluating defense is that the difference between the best fielding team and the worst is minimal compared to the same range with hitting. With that in mind batting just seems so much more important.

[W_Marone]

I'm not sure that in general being able to make diving/outstanding plays is better than being able to get basehits, althought some base hits, many, are meaningless to the score every season. I think in times of a close game a great defensive play is bigger than a hit, example: Aaron Rowand's catch into the wall that broke his nose, saved the game for the Phillies.

[Gee Walker]

I'm not sure whether the difference between the best and worst defensive teams isn't large, for reasons that I'll discuss later. However, the difference at any given position between a bad and a good fielder can be enormous.

In 2006 Brandon Inge played 1392 innings at third base. Alex Rodriguez played 1288.666. That's a difference of 8.0% in playing time.

During this time, Inge beat Rodriguez 135 to 96 in putouts (40.6% more), assists 398 to 262 (51.9% more) double plays 34 to 24 (41.7% more) while making two fewer errors, 22 to 24 (8.3% less). Looking at it in another way, Inge got a minimum of 139 more outs from his defence than ARod did. (I'm only adding the differences between their putouts, assists and errors). Let's say that 80% of those outs would have been singles, and 20% doubles down the line. That works out to saving 111 singles and 28 doubles compared to ARod. And that's a LOT more than the difference between ARod's and Inge's OFFENCE, even in ARod's MVP years.

The problem with defensive stats is that in their conventional form, they only count successes and failures (TC and E). They don't count cement-footed first basemen who can't move more than two feet from their position, letting loads of hits go past - a low range factor at 1B could be due to other things, including playing next to a Gold Glove second baseman or playing on a team with a lot of left-handed pitchers. Range factor is also susceptible to certain pitching trends - e.g. strikeouts remove fielding chances, walks increase double play chances, etc. But counting total chances and errors is essentially the same as evaluating a hitter by counting his hits and strikeouts. Is a player with 132 hits and 64 K's good or bad? Well, it's easy to look up, because the stats include AB, 2B, 3B, HR, HBP, GIDP and other measurable standards. With defence, it's harder to do.

The other reason why fielding stats look compressed is that we are limited by the rules to 27 outs in a game. So there is a limit - a catcher who caught Roger Clemens repeating his 20 strikeout game for a full season would have 3240 PO. It's a ridiculous limit, but it does influence everyone's fielding totals in that the totals in one regular game can't exceed 27 PO. And assuming that the infielders don't get assists by performing in recurring rundowns, that number is pretty limited too. No such limits apply to hitting stats - if the pitcher can't get anyone out, the game keeps going on and on and on...

Zone Rating is an attempt to remedy this situation. A player who achieves a ZR of 1.000 is getting to every ball in his "zone". The trouble with this stat is that it is quite subjective - where does the zone for third basemen end, compared to shortstop, pitcher, or leftfielder? On a high popup to shallow left, three players can get that play. One guy gets the PO, do the other two get a zero or a NR?

[ChrisLDuncan]

During this time, Inge beat Rodriguez 135 to 96 in putouts (40.6% more), assists 398 to 262 (51.9% more) double plays 34 to 24 (41.7% more) while making two fewer errors, 22 to 24 (8.3% less). Looking at it in another way, Inge got a minimum of 139 more outs from his defence than ARod did. (I'm only adding the differences between their putouts, assists and errors). Let's say that 80% of those outs would have been singles, and 20% doubles down the line. That works out to saving 111 singles and 28 doubles compared to ARod. And that's a LOT more than the difference between ARod's and Inge's OFFENCE, even in ARod's MVP years.


NO, it's not the difference between A-Rod's and Inge's offense durring his "good" years.
2005
RBI:
A-Rod: 130
Inge: 72

Runs Scored
A-Rod: 124
Inge: 75

RC/27
A-Rod 9.53
Inge 4.7
THAT'S TWICE AS MANY MORE RUNS A GAME THAT A-ROD PRODUCED

[SoxSon]

Aaron Rowand's catching into the wall that broke his name, saved the game for the Phillies.

I thought this was a poetic slip, Go Gomes. :)

[W_Marone]

hahaha..hmmm..wonder how name got into that instead of nose....strange.

[Gee Walker]

NO, it's not the difference between A-Rod's and Inge's offense durring his "good" years.
2005
RBI:
A-Rod: 130
Inge: 72

Runs Scored
A-Rod: 124
Inge: 75

RC/27
A-Rod 9.53
Inge 4.7
THAT'S TWICE AS MANY MORE RUNS A GAME THAT A-ROD PRODUCED

Add 111 singles and 28 doubles to Brandon Inge and you have a guy who would have gotten exactly 300 hits in 2005. Assuming that these would all have been add-ons, that would give him a .397 BA, and an OPS of 1.001. Remove Inge's outs to give him room for these hits and those numbers would skyrocket. And he wouldn't be playing third base like a guy who already thinks that he's posing for the monuments in centerfield.

[Astro]

Add 111 singles and 28 doubles to Brandon Inge and you have a guy who would have gotten exactly 300 hits in 2005. Assuming that these would all have been add-ons, that would give him a .397 BA, and an OPS of 1.001. Remove Inge's outs to give him room for these hits and those numbers would skyrocket. And he wouldn't be playing third base like a guy who already thinks that he's posing for the monuments in centerfield.
I have no idea what you're talking about... but I see you saying Brandon Inge hitting .397... so I really dont believe it anyway

[cardsfanatic]

Defense is vastly overrated at the pro level. In lower levels it's a big deal because the difference in defenders is so great. Like, highschool... the best defensive team will usually win because the gap between good defense and poor defense in HS is a team that can field pop flies and a team that gets hit in the face by can'o'corns. Once you get weeded through to the MLB level you are at the very least a fundamentally sound fielder. You can do the basic stuff.

Now, your range might not be the same as the next guy but at least you can field a ground ball, fly ball and turn a double play if needed. So, by the time you get to the highest level the gap is significantly narrowed between good and bad defenders.

It really comes down to steps and reads. The best defender might get another 5-7 feet of coverage over the worst and while that might seem insignficant it does add up at the end of the year. But does it overtake the significance of offense? Hell nah.

[KCGHOST]

This is one of the great thorny issues of performance analysis and no one has really resolved it yet.

[tigers527]

I have no idea what you're talking about... but I see you saying Brandon Inge hitting .397... so I really dont believe it anyway

What he was doing is adding the extra outs Inge recorded on the defensive side of the field, compared to A Rods defensive outs. Inge made 140ish more outs then A Rod. assuming Inge wasn't there those outs don't get made and thus, they become hits. (although, I am not sure if Gee multiplied the outs by .92, thus accounting for the less innings A Rod played at third?)....Either way Inge is a filthy defender. And if you take all the extra OUTS he made (this is just the extras over A Rod), and pretend instead of those extra outs, give Inge the hits.....representing the hits he stopped. There's your .397 AVG.

I hope I am not rehashing something I will see rehashed in a few more posts? I guess that's what I get for posting a reply before reading the whole thread.

[EvanAparra]

But Inge also played over a hundred more innings than A-Rod this year, not really a fair comparison.

[tigers527]

I have no idea what you're talking about... but I see you saying Brandon Inge hitting .397... so I really dont believe it anyway

What he was doing is adding the extra outs Inge recorded on the defensive side of the field, compared to A Rods defensive outs. Inge made 140ish more outs then A Rod. assuming Inge wasn't there those outs don't get made and thus, they become hits. (although, I am not sure if Gee multiplied the outs by .92, thus accounting for the less innings A Rod played at third?)....Either way Inge is a filthy defender. And if you take all the extra OUTS he made (this is just the extras over A Rod), and pretend instead of those extra outs, give Inge the hits.....representing the hits he stopped. There's your .397 AVG.

I hope I am not rehashing something I will see rehashed in a few more posts? I guess that's what I get for posting a reply before reading the whole thread. Well, I guess I didn't/wasn't....shew, that was close. :D

BTW...D makes the difference the 2005 WhiteSox prove that. In 2003 the WhiteSox OF had 70 HR and 263 RBI (and that was a platooned CF, of which I only took the most active fellow Carl Evert 73 G. You get 76 HR and 287 RBI if you include A Rowands time in CF). While the 2005 WhiteSox only had 44 HR and 180 RBI from their starting OF (all of them playing 150ish games). How can an OF lose over 100 RBI and win the WS??? I know most would say pitching, it also does not hurt that the only doubles in the gap that are hit are laser line drives.

I would say that defense, is at least it's fair 1/3 of the equation. I would go so far as to say it is more important then hitting.

My break down....pitching 45%, Fielding 37.3%, Hitting 17.7% ........give or take 5%.

OOPS DOUBLE POST OF SORTS....Please Mod delete post 12 by me

[tigers527]

But Inge also played over a hundred more innings than A-Rod this year, not really a fair comparison. He did mention that 8% more innings. I just wonder if he included that in his math?

[EvanAparra]

He did mention that 8% more innings. I just wonder if he included that in his math?
Didnt see that. Good question.

[tigers527]

Didnt see that. Good question.

Although, lets say he didn't...and then do it for him. Since Inge made 140ish more outs...multiply that number by .92 and you get 129 (that would be the number adjusted for innings played at 3rd base). Now, if you add that number to Inges offensive stats, as Gee Walker was doing....that's still a sick player.

As a regular Tiger Forum poster, I have said give Inge one more year. If he can not K so much whatever he does on the offensive side of the plate will be worth it (assuming he could k about 90ish times next year). I would like to see him get to the 400 mark in 3rd baseman assists...With the assumed health of Maroth and the other lefties on the staff (Rogers and Robertson), I could see it happening. Then perhaps the Gold Glove will make its way onto Inges' hand (as that award more then most BB awards, always seems to fall onto the right people about 1-3 years later then it should of)?

[cardsfanatic]

Although, lets say he didn't...and then do it for him. Since Inge made 140ish more outs...multiply that number by .92 and you get 129 (that would be the number adjusted for innings played at 3rd base). Now, if you add that number to Inges offensive stats, as Gee Walker was doing....that's still a sick player.


That is some piss poor math. The proper way to do it would be to take Inges total PO's and multiply them by .92 and that will give you the true difference in defensive efficiency between the two players. A true comparison of this type should be efficiency because if you give A-Rod the extra innings his PO numbers would rise greatly, too.

[tigers527]

That is some piss poor math. The proper way to do it would be to take Inges total PO's and multiply them by .92 and that will give you the true difference in defensive efficiency between the two players. A true comparison of this type should be efficiency because if you give A-Rod the extra innings his PO numbers would rise greatly, too.

I was taking the numbers GeeWalker came up with.....He combined PO with A and a few more numbers.....his post is right up there, take a look. And if you think just PO is the true number of defensive capacity, I would say it is some kind of matrix of DP, PO, A and C (double plays, put outs, assists, and chances). The minutia of trying to figure out such a matrix would give Bill James a headache. In fact I would not likely be here talking about such things were it not that GeeWalker is one of the finer more thoughtful posters on the Tigers forum. He is also named for one of the odder misfits of the game who was a great player in his own right GeeWalker (think Man Ram circa 1930's).

[Rapmaster]

Defense is vastly overrated at the pro level. In lower levels it's a big deal because the difference in defenders is so great. Like, highschool... the best defensive team will usually win because the gap between good defense and poor defense in HS is a team that can field pop flies and a team that gets hit in the face by can'o'corns. Once you get weeded through to the MLB level you are at the very least a fundamentally sound fielder. You can do the basic stuff.

Now, your range might not be the same as the next guy but at least you can field a ground ball, fly ball and turn a double play if needed. So, by the time you get to the highest level the gap is significantly narrowed between good and bad defenders.

It really comes down to steps and reads. The best defender might get another 5-7 feet of coverage over the worst and while that might seem insignficant it does add up at the end of the year. But does it overtake the significance of offense? Hell nah.

I dunno, Carlos Delgado looked awfully bad in the NLCS. I think a good high school defensive first baseman could be better :o

[ChrisLDuncan]

Add 111 singles and 28 doubles to Brandon Inge and you have a guy who would have gotten exactly 300 hits in 2005. Assuming that these would all have been add-ons, that would give him a .397 BA, and an OPS of 1.001. Remove Inge's outs to give him room for these hits and those numbers would skyrocket. And he wouldn't be playing third base like a guy who already thinks that he's posing for the monuments in centerfield.

Well add A-Rod's D numbers to his offense in 2005 see what happens. Also I think you're completely missing the point and overrating Brandon Inge.

[tigers527]

Well add A-Rod's D numbers to his offense in 2005 see what happens. Also I think you're completely missing the point and overrating Brandon Inge.

His point was Inge v A Rod....A Rod has no D numbers v Inge. For that matter, I would doubt there are any 3Bmen that have numbers v Inge (on the D side of the field).

[EvanAparra]

His point was Inge v A Rod....A Rod has no D numbers v Inge. For that matter, I would doubt there are any 3Bmen that have numbers v Inge (on the D side of the field).

Joe Crede sure does.

[tigers527]

Joe Crede sure does.

Have you seen Inges' numbers in the context of history?
Code:
Year Last First Stint Tm Lg POS G PO A E DP PB TC
1971 Nettles Graig 1 CLE AL 3B 158 159 412 16 54 587
1973 Nettles Graig 1 NYA AL 3B 157 117 410 26 39 553
1974 Robinsn Brooks 1 BAL AL 3B 153 115 410 18 44 543
1937 Clift Harlond 1 SLA AL 3B 155 198 405 34 50 637
1967 Robinsn Brooks 1 BAL AL 3B 158 147 405 11 37 563
1974 Schmidt Mike 1 PHI NL 3B 162 134 404 26 40 564
1982 DeCincs Doug 1 CAL AL 3B 153 112 399 21 41 532
2006 Inge Brandn 1 DET AL 3B 159 135 398 22 34 555
1962 Boyer Clete 1 NYA AL 3B 157 187 396 22 41 605
1982 Bell Buddy 1 TEX AL 3B 145 131 396 13 35 540
Last edited by HDH : 10-29-2006 at 12:38 PM.

For a better look at these stats....look for the opinion of Brandon Inge thread in the Tigers Forum (somewhere toward the bottom of page 2)

[EvanAparra]

Yes. But I wasn't aware we were basing our opinions of a players D by one season. He's a great 3B, but to say that no one is in his league (if thats what you were saying) is too much... Crede, Lowell, Rolen, Chavez

[tigers527]

Yes. But I wasn't aware we were basing our opinions of a players D by one season. He's a great 3B, but to say that no one is in his league (if thats what you were saying) is too much... Crede, Lowell, Rolen, Chavez

I thought that was the point of the Gold Glove? But maybe I am silly.

[EvanAparra]

The point of the gold glove is to say that no one else is in that player's league? I dont think so.

[cardsfanatic]

His point was Inge v A Rod....A Rod has no D numbers v Inge. For that matter, I would doubt there are any 3Bmen that have numbers v Inge (on the D side of the field).

Ummm, Scott Rolen? Eric Chavez?

[ChrisLDuncan]

People forget that A-Rod had a pretty good season at 3B last season (2005).