Long Gap coming between 3000 hitmen

[Goooooo]

Well, Biggio will get it in 2007 most likely, but then be prepared to wait.

If Bonds plays in 2008, he can get it, but this looks unlikely. I sort of feel like he will though.

After that, the 3000 hit club waits for Jeter and Arod, and both are over 900 hits away. Although they rack them up fast, both are aging and likely it'll be at least 2013 before one of them makes it.

So I predict that no player will get his 3000th hit in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, or 2012, and quite possibly 2013 if both of those 2 players has any sort of injuries. Is this noteworthy?

[Mattingly]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/H_career.shtml

Of the active players with <3,000 hits, only Junior (now aged 36) is reasonably below 40. However, he's 99th career with 2,412. Above him is Omar Vizquel, who's 39, is tied with Ted Simmons for 85th at 2,472.

If Griffey can last another 3 seasons, he may be next in line.

Oh, and yes, I would agree that this topic is noteworthy (and threadworthy also). :D

[Williamsburg2599]

Manny is 34 and has 2066 hits, 6 seasons of 150 hits and he'll be at 2,966. You never know....

As for A-rod, who knows how the rest of his career is going to fan out after this season...

[Brooklyn]

Interesting (and thread worthy), but I'm not sure how noteworthy it is. It is certainly not unprcedented. Here is a history of the 3000 hit men:


1 in 1897, then 17 seasons without one
2 in 1914, then 7 seasons with out one
3 between 1921 and 1925, then 17 seasons without one
1 in 1942, then 16 seasons without one
1 in 1958, then 12 seasons without one
7 bewtween 1970 and 1979, then 6 seasons without one
1 in 1985, then 7 seasons without one
9 between 1992 and 2001, then 4 seasons without one
last in 2005

[FatAngel]

A catcher, but Rodriguez is less than 650 away at 34.

[DoubleX]

I give Ivan Rodriguez a fighting chance. It would take at least 4 or 5 more productive seasons, and at 35 and being a catcher, it's tough to say if he can hang in there and be productive for that long.

Griffey is within 600 hits, but his inability to stay healthy will probably keep him from doing it. He hasn't had more than 148 hits since 1999 and has only broken 100 hits twice in the last 5 years. So I don't really see him stringing together enough healthy and productive years to get there.

Gary Sheffield needs 610 hits to get there. If he can stay healthy for four or five more years until age 42, he'd have a very good chance of doing it.

Derek Jeter is 32 and needs 850. I think all he needs to do is stay healthy and he should make it to 3000. He has been excellent at accumulating basehits in his career. His career low in a healthy season is 183 and that's way back in his rookie year. He's topped 200 five times (including the last two years) and topped 190 eight times. So assuming Jeter stays healthy, I think he could get to 3000 by 2011.

I also think A-Rod will get there. It's not like he dropped off the face of the map this past year. He came up small in the clutch, but he still put up pretty good counting numbers across the board. I don't think he'll get there before Jeter because he's behind Jeter right now by about 90 hits, and he doesn't usually get as many hits as Jeter in a season.

[hellborn]

I also think A-Rod will get there. It's not like he dropped off the face of the map this past year. He came up small in the clutch, but he still put up pretty good counting numbers across the board. I don't think he'll get there before Jeter because he's behind Jeter right now by about 90 hits, and he doesn't usually get as many hits as Jeter in a season.

I think that it would be a huge upset if ARod didn't make 3000 hits, barring a major injury or two. I suppose that the guy might end up pulling a Sandberg or Home Run Baker and missing some prime years, but I can't see that as being likely in somebody so focused on baseball.
The guy is having a crisis, but so many other players have had similar ones and fought through them. I won't fall over dead if he leaves NY before his contract is up, but I think that he'll have good seasons whether he does or not. Maybe Jeter will reach out to him after all the drama of this season and ARod will settle in. Maybe he'll go to the White Sox and have the best year of his career, like Dick Allen did in '72 after leaving a bad situation in Philly.
Can you think of a player anywhere close to the magnitude of ARod who has just given up on the game? At least in recent memory?

[FatAngel]

During short periods in the years with his constant injuries, I had the impression Griffey had briefly given up on himself, but not the game. Some of his at bats then were tough to watch.

[geezer]

Interesting (and thread worthy), but I'm not sure how noteworthy it is. It is certainly not unprcedented. Here is a history of the 3000 hit men:


1 in 1897, then 17 seasons without one
2 in 1914, then 7 seasons with out one
3 between 1921 and 1925, then 17 seasons without one
1 in 1942, then 16 seasons without one
1 in 1958, then 12 seasons without one
7 bewtween 1970 and 1979, then 6 seasons without one
1 in 1985, then 7 seasons without one
9 between 1992 and 2001, then 4 seasons without one
last in 2005


And in 2007, Craig Biggio will make it.

[Neilios]

Players 10 or more years in who will/could reach 3,000:

Craig Biggio
Barry Bonds
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Derek Jeter
Jeff Kent
Garrett Anderson
Manny Ramirez
Alex Rodriguez
Chipper Jones
Johnny Damon
Edgar Renteria
Vladimir Guerrero

[Edgartohof]

Well, I figure A-Rod has a reasonable shot at the top 5 in hits. He is only 31, with over 2000 hits, so he could quite plausibly play another 10+ years, and I expect he will if at all possible. This is of cours barring injury, which can derail anyone real fast.

But think about this, Griffey was 31 as well, when his problems began. He was a baseball god, on track to pass Aaron, and then BAM! And he's never recovered. Now if that just suddenly jinxed A-Rod, then I am sorry, but I thought I should mention it.

[Edgartohof]

Players 10 or more years in who will/could reach 3,000:

Jeff Kent

You know, I don't really see Kent reaching 3,000 hits. He is already 38, and while he can still hit, he was injured a bit last season, and he would need to last at least 4 more seasons, which would make him 42, and I doubt he would be a regular by that point, which would make him have to play longer to reach the milestone.

[Neilios]

You know, I don't really see Kent reaching 3,000 hits. He is already 38, and while he can still hit, he was injured a bit last season, and he would need to last at least 4 more seasons, which would make him 42, and I doubt he would be a regular by that point, which would make him have to play longer to reach the milestone.

Yeah, you're right. I originally had Sheffield on the list as well, and I meant to nix Kent when I did Shef. I'm gonna go out on a limb and, despite a .267 career average, throw in Andruw Jones.

[Edgartohof]

Yeah, you're right. I originally had Sheffield on the list as well, and I meant to nix Kent when I did Shef. I'm gonna go out on a limb and, despite a .267 career average, throw in Andruw Jones.

I guess he has a shot at it, but not much of one. What he has going for him is that he is not real injury prone, but you never know what the future may bring. And that low BA is what may keep him from reaching that goal.

He needs to average 150 hits/season for the next 10 years, but since he is barely getting there now, who knows. And the longer he plays in CF, the higher his risk of injury becomes. So we shall see.

[Rapmaster]

I don't think Andruw will do it. His batting has become a bit too one dimensional since 2003. he's simply trying to hit a homerun every single time. This year, he finished his swing basically leaned back all the way onto his right knee. The explanation was that he had a bum right knee (which has plagued him in the past), but I doubt that it would make him fall back that much.

500 homeruns though, no question.

[hellborn]

Well, I figure A-Rod has a reasonable shot at the top 5 in hits. He is only 31, with over 2000 hits, so he could quite plausibly play another 10+ years, and I expect he will if at all possible. This is of cours barring injury, which can derail anyone real fast.

But think about this, Griffey was 31 as well, when his problems began. He was a baseball god, on track to pass Aaron, and then BAM! And he's never recovered. Now if that just suddenly jinxed A-Rod, then I am sorry, but I thought I should mention it.
Good point about Griffey...certainly could happen to ARod, but I feel that Griffey's problems are due in great measure to his approach to conditioning. You always hear about how hard ARod works out, and I believe that his only major injury happened while doing an exercise that involved hopping from the floor to a chair seat and back on one leg. I can remember reading that Griffey didn't lift at all and also felt that his conditioning for baseball was best served by playing baseball...meaning that he didn't do a lot in the offseason. Works OK for a young man, but age is going to catch up to you fast with an attitude like that.
I'm sure that I'm not being completely fair to Griffey here, but I do feel that ARod will have an advantage in keeping his career going. Of course, Nomah works out like crazy, too, and he's another Griffey now...maybe I'm way off base. But, I do remember a great line from Bill James that came up while discussing Musial, who lasted forever and whose only major injury came during an offseason gymnastics workout that, unfortunately, damaged his throwing arm...something about snapping up players who hurt themselves working out in the offseason and getting rid of those who get hurt just trying to run the bases.

[Rose4theHall]

Ichiro Suzuki currently averages 226 hits per year. If he manages to keep that rate up, he will have 3000 hits in roughly 7 years time, when he is 39. Im saying that very well might happen, considering what ridiculously good shape hes in.

[Rose4theHall]

Here's a little more info for that list, a tracker of sorts:

Players 10 or more years in who will/could reach 3,000:

Craig Biggio (70 left, age 41 in 07)
Barry Bonds (159 left, age 42 in 07)
Ken Griffey, Jr. (588 left, age 37 in 07)
Derek Jeter (850 left, age 33 in 07)
Jeff Kent (811 left, age 39 in 07)
Garrett Anderson (919 left, age 35 in 07)
Manny Ramirez (934 left, age 35 in 07)
Alex Rodriguez (933 left, age 31 in 07)
Chipper Jones (1056 left, age 35 in 07)
Johnny Damon (1042 left, age 33 in 07)
Edgar Renteria (1230 left, age 31 in 07)
Vladimir Guerrero (1214 left, age 31 in 07)


If youre feeling a little daring you can also add:

Ichiro Suzuki (1646 left, age 33 in 07, averages 226 per year)
Andruw Jones (1444 left, age 30 in 07)
Albert Pujols (1841 left, age 27 in 07)
Juan Pierre (1756 left, age 29 in 07)
Adrian Beltre (1731 left, age 28 in 07)
Carlos Lee (1692 left, age 31 in 07)
Jason Kendall (1265 left, age 33 in 07)
Miguel Tejada (1416 left, age 31 in 07)
Shawn Green (1127 left, age 34 in 07)

[DoubleX]

Well, I figure A-Rod has a reasonable shot at the top 5 in hits. He is only 31, with over 2000 hits, so he could quite plausibly play another 10+ years, and I expect he will if at all possible. This is of cours barring injury, which can derail anyone real fast.

But think about this, Griffey was 31 as well, when his problems began. He was a baseball god, on track to pass Aaron, and then BAM! And he's never recovered. Now if that just suddenly jinxed A-Rod, then I am sorry, but I thought I should mention it.

I think Jeter, if healthy, has the best shot of active players to get into the top 5 all time in hits, which would take a minimum of 3515 hits (Tris Speaker is at 3514).

Let's make some projections, again assuming Jeter stays healthy and plays to say, 42 (10 years from now). Also keeping in mind that Jeter is coming off of two 200+ hit seasons, has 5 200+ hit seasons, 8 190 plus seasons, a career low of 183 in a healthy season and that was his rookie year, and he bats at or near the top of what will likely remain a potent lineup. So here are some projections that I think are reasonable (and perhaps on the conservative side if Jeter stays healthy) - I'll give the age, the number of hits projected that season, and total at the end, starting with this season:

32: 214, 2150
33: 210, 2360
34: 200, 2560
35: 190, 2750
36: 180, 2940
37: 180, 3120
38: 160, 3380
39: 140, 3520
40: 130, 3650
41: 100, 3750
42: 100, 3850

So with these projections, which could be conservative if Jeter stays healthy (and plays until 42, which is less likely), would put Jeter in the top 5 all time by age 39, and get him into the top 3 at career's end.

[NewYork NewYork]

I agree that Jeter has a good shot at finishing in the Top 5 in total hits if he stays healthy. With that said, I seriously doubt he plays to 42 and even 40 years old. I see him retiring around 37-39. I'd say he has a good shot to finish around 3300-3500 hits if he stays healthy.

[DoubleX]

I agree that Jeter has a good shot at finishing in the Top 5 in total hits if he stays healthy. With that said, I seriously doubt he plays to 42 and even 40 years old. I see him retiring around 37-39. I'd say he has a good shot to finish around 3300-3500 hits if he stays healthy.

I agree that 42 is a longshot. I just wanted to illustrate the potential if Jeter were to stay healthy and keep going.