Adam Dunn to Pirates?

[Goooooo]

So, I've been mulling the reports that the Reds are willing to deal Adam Dunn...and I think that the Pirates should consider the possibility of acquiring him. Check this scenario:

Bucs send Maholm and a prospect (not sure who would be a likely candidate yet) to the Reds. Here is my line of thinking behind this deal.

Putting Dunn in the Bucs lineup gives them the 1B or even RF power hitter that they need. Although he does tend to strikeout, protecting him with Bay and Sanchez would alleviate some of that pressure, while giving the Pirates a legitimate longball threat.

Looking forward, putting Dunn at first makes sense, allowing a healthy Nady (wrist) to play RF on a consistent basis. The Pirates, who intend to start Duffy at CF, should give him a legitimate shot at the position, and if he falters again, moving Bay there to once and for all plug that incessant hole must be strongly considered. In that case, Dunn moves to RF, with Nady in left, and the Pirates bring up a healthy Brad Eldred to finally give him a legitimate shot to prove himself at first.

Let me know what you guys think.

[moebarguy]

Don't you think they could do a little better than Maholm? If the Reds trade a guy like Dunn, they're going to get a front-line starting pitcher - which is something they could really use...

[Bucco Fanatic]

I think if Duffy falters again they will probably replace him with McCutchen or McClouth. If Dunn were to come to the pirates (and thats a big IF) then I see pretty much the same lineup as at the end of the season minus Doumit (with possibly a few plate appearences or when Dunn gets a day off). Im not even sure of Dunn's salary but my guess is that its higher than the bucs want to pay.

Other than that I really dont see any major changes coming next season.

[BayBalla]

Well, they need a starting pitcher and at the price those are demanding on the free agent market I don't see a trade involving one of the young pitchers. Dunn is simply not a productive player despite the power and it would definitely get monotonous about mid-year with all of his strikeouts. If Duffy plays badly then McClouth would be a pretty good replacement. He seemed decent enough in his playing time last season with a little pop in his bat even though his average was a little low. That would just be waiting for McCutchen then.

Also, the problem with this year's team was not the lineup which resembled a major league lineup at times (I remember sitting at PNC and being amazed by that, especially after the Nady trade). The changes they need to make are in the back end of the rotation. They need to take chances on the Bronson Arroyo of last offseason types of guys, people that have shown potential but not quite produced yet. Also, Shawn Chacon should not, under any circumstances, be a part of this team's pitching staff.

[moebarguy]

Although I agree Dunn strikes out too much, the guy also walks a ton (112 this past season). His average was very low (.234), but his OBP was great (.365)...he's a top young hitter, so he could easily get the Reds a top starting pitcher

[Goooooo]

Dunn is intriguing, that's for sure. but all those Ks would probably kill us because we will also probably have Eldred in our lineup.

With the strong possibility of Eldred playing 1B for us, Dunn pretty much would play RF, which would be okay with me because I'm not completely sold on Nady as a full time player.

As for LF, I suspect Bay is going to stay there for many years. I don't see him moving to CF at least not for very long. That's because we're likely to see Andrew McCutchen arriving in CF by 2008 if he does not have any setbacks in his fast track to the majors.

If we could tolerate all the k's between Dunn & Eldred, we sure would have a nice LH power hitter. The only problem I see is that we'd probably have to sandwich Dunn between Bay & Eldred for the RH-LH-RH batting order approach.

This pretty much means that, in one way or the other, Dunn & Eldred would be hitting back to back. This means a good chance of striking out of potential rallies.

On the other hand, it also means a good chance of back to back HRs to continue those rallies. I for one, would love to see him in our lineup to see what would happen.

With his average ability in the field and his low batting averages all Dunn offers is power and little else. So it should not take a huge sacrifice of pitching talent to obtain him.

But the bottom line is we need power & the Reds need pitching. We HAVE pitching and the Reds HAVE power. So it would seem that a trade possibility is certainly out there, even if the two teams share the same division.

[Ravenlord]

Except for the fact that the Pirates are missing the thing that Dunn should be traded for, it fits.

Eldred should be reasonably expected to produce the 80 runs created had Sean Casey was pacing for if he had played the whole season healthy for the Pirates. However, three major concerns jump out about Eldred. The first being health, in that he only played 18 games last year, and that he only has two seasons (2003, 2005) where he’s played more than 92 games. The second concern is that Eldred walks roughly once every 12 ABs in the minors, and that a large chunk of his OBP is driven by HBP. This wouldn’t really be much of concern (280 minor league hitter), if it wasn’t for the fact he K’s once every 3.27 ABs. If he’s striking out at the rate because of his swing and/or is just swinging through balls, it’s not really a problem. But if it’s due to a lack of strike zone judgement (which his walk rate would suggest, but the AVG doesn’t), that’s going to translate into some serious adjustment problems at the Major League level. And worse yet, if it is due to a hole in his swing, there’s going to be some Kevin Maas-like problems.

At worst Xavier Nady can be inserted at 1B to replace Eldred. Nady’s career averages put him at a 75 runs created pace over 560 plate appearances (which he would probably exceed easily). Offensively what Nady is is a stronger Rob Mackowiak.

This pretty much means that, in one way or the other, Dunn & Eldred would be hitting back to back. This means a good chance of striking out of potential rallies.
Not really. Otherwise guys like Jim Thome and Frank Thomas wouldn’t have a crapload of RBIs.


With his average ability in the field and his low batting averages all Dunn offers is power and little else. So it should not take a huge sacrifice of pitching talent to obtain him.
Except Dunn does at a good rate (outstanding rate when you consider his AVG) the most important thing all hitters can do; not make out. For all his problems this year (especially the end of the season) Dunn finished 10th in MLB in SecA (Bay was 14th). Dunn’s also the only player ever to have a 500+ SecA while hitting below 280 (he did it while hitting 247). Dunn is worth far more than traditional stats dictate, and far less than sabrmetrics dictates. Though will undoubtedly take someone who has either undisputed ace potential who’s close to the bigs, or a guy on the cusp of front line started to get Dunn…or Krivsky could pull a Washington trade all over again.

Gorzelanny is a good place to start in pretty much any deal involving Cincinnati.