Magglio Ordonez

[ChrisLDuncan]

Do you think he'll get in the hall?

[KCGHOST]

All he has to do is pay the admission fee.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Do you think he'll get in the hall?

Not unless he plays until 40 at his median level of performance.

[CTaka]

Do you think he'll get in the hall?

No. Ordonez is just another good hitter in a high offense era. Magglio's numbers just aren't that remarkable compared to the other big hitters of his era. Good hitter, but not an immortal.

[Edgartohof]

He is a decent hitter, still has a .300+ career BA, and can hit 30+ HR's.

But he is on the decline of his career, missing much of his peak years due to 2 consecutive injury plagued seasons (2004 and 2005). So he will likely end with a BA below .300, and barely has a chance at 450 HR's, let alone 500, which by then, will has countless other members (possibly double what it is now), thereby even that would not put him in the Hall. He isn't great defensively either, and he seems to already be declining out there. He is already 32 (33?) years old, and I don't expect him to play much past 37 - at least not effectively. But he can still help his chances, by having some post season success, such as if the Tiger's make it to the WS this year and win. Unfortunately he missed out on the White Sox championship, as 2 rings definitely helps add to anyones case.

So I say he has only a very little chance of making it, seeing as he is only a light power hitter (only 1 top 10 in HR's, 3 top 10's in doubles), and with his increasing age and declining skills, he won't add much to his resume, and even his career numbers most likely will not be that astounding.

[Brad Harris]

Less than 1% chance of making it someday and that percentage is dwindling season after season.

[2Chance]

He's just another one of those guys who is advertised as a "Five Tool" Player that one day somebody wakes up and asks, "where'd the other tools go?"

Difference is this one is a real ballplayer...anybody remember our former 5-tooler, Juan E.? Rumor has it he is still gainfully employed, and even playing (the lucky stiff).

[Fuzzy Bear]

Mags has to overcome the fact that nobody really thinks of him as a HOFer, even though he may well end up with numbers well within HOF norms.

Mags will be 33 next year. He's still hitting .305 lifetime, with some power. His park won't help him out at all, however, and he won't get into the HOF if he doesn't keep his BA over .300 AND get about 2,500 hits.

I don't see Mags making it to the age where he's a threat to 3,000 hits. I don't see him playing until age 40. He's putting up OK stats, but if Mags, why not Will the Thrill and Donnie Baseball. Those guys put up the kind of numbers I suspect Mags will end up with.

[KingJ]

If Ron Santo (the patron...santo... of .300/30 HR hitters) isn't in, Mags stands no chance.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If Ron Santo (the patron...santo... of .300/30 HR hitters) isn't in, Mags stands no chance.

Santo isn't similar to Mags at all. Less offense (superficially, anyway) for Santo, but much more defense, and the offense isn't bad.

Santo ranks MUCH higher on the list of all-time third basemen than Mags does on the list of all-time outfielders.

[antihipster]

Ordonez will not make it in this inflated offensive era. His relative numbers ought to imply that he will only be a visitor.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Ordonez will not make it in this inflated offensive era. His relative numbers ought to imply that he will only be a visitor.

Ordonez would not be the worst HOFer. He'd be a Ross Youngs-type pick if elected now.

IF he made it to 3,000 hits, he'd get in, inflated era or not. Having said that, Mags getting there is unlikely (though not impossible).

[Fuzzy Bear]

Mags' walk-off homer to win the pennant helps his HOF chances.

It helps him because it gives him some fame. He'll be talked about forever now. Like Kirk Gibson is. Gibson, of course, won't make the HOF, but he's famous, considered better than he really was, IMO, and this is in no small part due to the fame brought him by his WS homer with Los Angeles. Mags will be remembered with Bucky Dent and Bobby Thompson. If those guys were close to the HOF borderline, moments like they enjoyed can push them over the top.

When I woke up this morining, Magglio Ordonez was not famous. Now, he'll be talked about by baseball fans until the day I die and beyond.

[Brad Harris]

Ordonez would not be the worst HOFer. He'd be a Ross Youngs-type pick if elected now.

Which would, in fact, make him a competitor for the title of "worst HOFer."

[Fuzzy Bear]

At this writing, Magglio Ordonez has done the most of any player to propel himself toward the HOF during this season.

Mags has raised his lifetime BA 4 points to .309, and if he keeps up what he's been doing to the end of the season, he'll push it to .311-.312.

Mags is having an MVP-type season. He probably won't win the MVP, as A-Rod is ahead of him in many (but not all) of the leaderboards, plus, A-Rod plays a more demanding defensive position. But Mags plays for a more successful team, so if Mags keeps it up and A-Rod fades a bit, the fact that Mags is likely to be in the postseason and A-Rod is not will weigh in with the MVP voters. He's unlikely to finish lower than second in MVP voting, IMO.

He's added to his lifetime BA; a big season like this at his age makes it more likely that he'll end up at .300 or better lifetime. He's played in another All-Star game; that makes six (6) All-Star selections. That's a good total for a prospective HOFer of Mags' age (33). He is almost certain to exceed 1,600 hits, and will end up with 245-250 HRs, barring an injury.

Mags seems to have emerged from the mid-career funk that plagued Carl Yastrzemski. Yaz was nothing to write home about in 1971-72, but he turned it around in 1973-74, posting numbers that weren't bad for the era. He's associated with helping his team win; that's a big plus for a potential HOFer. He's NOT a likely HOFer now, and he won't be even if you project what he's doing now out to the end of the season. But if he ends up with a season like he's projected to have right now, and follows that up with two seasons in a row approaching his new career norms, he may be as high as a 50-50 shot.

Mags was about where Curt Schilling was in 2001 vis a vis the HOF. Schilling, of course, projected himself forward rapidly during the decade; he's now a better than even shot to get in. Mags has the potential, with a late prime, to project himself similarly, but he's only at the beginning of that particular trek. In the process of that trek, however, Schilling was able to re-define himself as a superstar. Can Mags?

[Brooklyn]

At this writing, Magglio Ordonez has done the most of any player to propel himself toward the HOF during this season.

Mags has raised his lifetime BA 4 points to .309, and if he keeps up what he's been doing to the end of the season, he'll push it to .311-.312.

Mags is having an MVP-type season. He probably won't win the MVP, as A-Rod is ahead of him in many (but not all) of the leaderboards, plus, A-Rod plays a more demanding defensive position. But Mags plays for a more successful team, so if Mags keeps it up and A-Rod fades a bit, the fact that Mags is likely to be in the postseason and A-Rod is not will weigh in with the MVP voters. He's unlikely to finish lower than second in MVP voting, IMO.

He's added to his lifetime BA; a big season like this at his age makes it more likely that he'll end up at .300 or better lifetime. He's played in another All-Star game; that makes six (6) All-Star selections. That's a good total for a prospective HOFer of Mags' age (33). He is almost certain to exceed 1,600 hits, and will end up with 245-250 HRs, barring an injury.

Mags seems to have emerged from the mid-career funk that plagued Carl Yastrzemski. Yaz was nothing to write home about in 1971-72, but he turned it around in 1973-74, posting numbers that weren't bad for the era. He's associated with helping his team win; that's a big plus for a potential HOFer. He's NOT a likely HOFer now, and he won't be even if you project what he's doing now out to the end of the season. But if he ends up with a season like he's projected to have right now, and follows that up with two seasons in a row approaching his new career norms, he may be as high as a 50-50 shot.

Mags was about where Curt Schilling was in 2001 vis a vis the HOF. Schilling, of course, projected himself forward rapidly during the decade; he's now a better than even shot to get in. Mags has the potential, with a late prime, to project himself similarly, but he's only at the beginning of that particular trek. In the process of that trek, however, Schilling was able to re-define himself as a superstar. Can Mags?

nice resurrection of an old thread. Amazing what 1 year will do. Not only is he putting up monster numbers this year, but all the MVP talk has helped him in the "fame" category. Where he was floating under the radar, he is now more of a household name.

He still has quite a bit of work to do, and I'd still put his odds at substantially less than 50/50, but I agree with your assessment that he has done more to help his case than any other player this year.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I would think Maglio would need about 3-4 2007 type seasons to be a seriously considered a viable HoF candidate.

[538280]

Doubt Magglio's going to be a serious HOF candidate. He's 33 and having a career year, but I doubt at this age that this is going to be a consistent line of performance for him beyond this year. Even now with a 128 OPS+ as a only okay defensive corner OF he'd really have to have a very long career to be a HOFer.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Doubt Magglio's going to be a serious HOF candidate. He's 33 and having a career year, but I doubt at this age that this is going to be a consistent line of performance for him beyond this year. Even now with a 128 OPS+ as a only okay defensive corner OF he'd really have to have a very long career to be a HOFer.

What if he has five straight 2007 type seasons?

[538280]

What if he has five straight 2007 type seasons?

Then he should be a HOFer. But I'm 99.9% sure it won't happen.

[Captain Cold Nose]

There was a point in time a few years ago where Ordonez was regarded as one of the best players in baseball. It's really not too surprising he's doing this well, but the injury issues really hurt him from that status. He's a good offensive player in an era where there are tons of good offensive players. He'll need to keep this up for a few more seasons to be regarded as special.

[Fuzzy Bear]

What if he has five straight 2007 type seasons?

He'd be a lock, then.

I don't think he needs that to get into the HOF. He needs 4 seasons at or above the career norms he will have after this season, however.


Amazing what 1 year will do. Not only is he putting up monster numbers this year, but all the MVP talk has helped him in the "fame" category. Where he was floating under the radar, he is now more of a household name.

He still has quite a bit of work to do, and I'd still put his odds at substantially less than 50/50, but I agree with your assessment that he has done more to help his case than any other player this year.

That's how I see Mags; almost exactly.

Of course, if he falls back to a .270-25-90 season next year, his chances for the HOF drop down to near zero. But every GOOD year he has innoculates his chances for the HOF from the virus of that one bad year that he's gonna have if he plays long enough.

Officially, I'm skeptical that players like Mags, who have sustained one major injury, will age well. But he's bounced back from the injury and become, possibly, a better player than ever now. There have been guys who have had knee/leg injuries, lost their speed, and become better players; Chili Davis comes to mind. Of course, none of these guys were HOF material, so Mags may be in uncharted waters here.

[KCGHOST]

I'm with 538280. Possible, but don't hold your breath.

[rdonahue]

As the season nears a conclusion, the hot start that Ordonez managed has continued. One season won't make you a HOFer but this won't hurt:
113 runs, 207 hits, 50 doubles, 133 RBI, .358 BA, .429 OBP, .585 SLG% and counting...

He currently leads the majors in hitting (BA can be misleading, but Ordonez has plenty of XBHs and walks), is 2nd in the AL in RBI, total bases, and OBP, 3rd in OPS, 4th in runs and SLG%, and 8th in HR. He also leads the AL in times on base.

Also of note, despite injury concerns the past few years, Magglio has been very durable this season. His 152 games played is 10th in the AL.

Let's look at a few metrics from baseball-reference (these assume his 2007 ranks hold up for another week...)

Black Ink 6 (328) - it all comes this year - doubles and BA
Gray Ink 75 (310)
HOF Standards 32.9 (216)
HOF Monitor 100.5 (145)

The monitor says he's a HOFer....that's a start I guess.

[rdonahue]

As for his career numbers:

857 runs, 1643 hits, 339 doubles, 246 HR, .311 BA, 129 OPS+

[dgarza]

Those 2 injury years really hurt his chances. But at this point I don't think he's such a easy write-off. If he stays healthy and productive for a few more years he could become a good borderline candidate. But his career is not quite at that level yet.
Right now I'm roughly 50/50 about how he'll ultimately round out. However, I don't think the odds are going to be in his favor in the future. Maybe he'll prove me wrong.

[philipthegreat]

It's rather unfortunate that magglio Ordonez great season has also been in Alex Rodriguez's greatest season.

The only way Ordonez can get in at this point would be to have a great run with a team like Boston or the Mets were under the scrutiny that every star in new York faces woould become more of a household name.

[DoubleX]

Even with his career year this year, his career OPS+ is 129 in just about 5900 plate appearances. That's not particularly Hall of Fame worthy for a corner OFer who still has his decline in front him. Throw in the fact that he does have some injury history and he's 33 years old, and I doubt he has enough good seasons in him to make up the difference.

[rdonahue]

Even with his career year this year, his career OPS+ is 129 in just about 5900 plate appearances. That's not particularly Hall of Fame worthy for a corner OFer who still has his decline in front him. Throw in the fact that he does have some injury history and he's 33 years old, and I doubt he has enough good seasons in him to make up the difference.


I'm afraid you're probably right. In the event he could make it, he'd probably go in as a Tiger (assuming he stays there long enough to make him a HOFer) and we could use all the HOFers we could get....doesn't look like Trammell will be in anytime soon:crazy

[plask_stirlac]

Maggs, the poor-man's Yaz?

[PVNICK]

Doubt Magglio's going to be a serious HOF candidate. He's 33 and having a career year, but I doubt at this age that this is going to be a consistent line of performance for him beyond this year. Even now with a 128 OPS+ as a only okay defensive corner OF he'd really have to have a very long career to be a HOFer.
You mean players don't post their best seasons from 35-40?

[Brad Harris]

In a world where Jim Thome is considered too much like Dave Kingman, Magglio Ordonez can't be expected to carry Darryl Strawberry's jock strap.

[bob]

His stats are good, and if he caries on this years form for several more years he'd be a good bet. But if he just maintains his averages from now on then its very unlikely. He's surrounded by much bigger names that will all come eligable around the same time as him, and being "above average" at everything isnt going to cut it. Although he does have funny hair, that'll help him stand out amoungst the crowd a bit...

[slugger33]

If Joe Morgan can make it to the HoF, so can Maggs.

[jalbright]

If Joe Morgan can make it to the HoF, so can Maggs.

Excuse me????? In what way is Ordonez in Joe Morgan's class as a ballplayer?

Morgan was a five time Gold Glove 2B, Ordonez a RF without a Gold Glove

Morgan was a 10 time all-star (8 by age 33, like Ordonez now), Ordonez has six.

Morgan won two MVPs, Ordonez none.

Morgan has 3.04 career MVP shares (2.99 by age 33), Ordonez has 0.27

Morgan had a career .390 OBP, Ordonez is at .370 now and is likely to decline from that.

Morgan had a career 132 OPS+, Ordonez is now at 129, and, again, is likely to slip from that.

Both have created 6.8 runs per game, but Morgan did it over more PA, and Ordonez is likely to decline a bit from that.

Morgan had 15 Black ink points, Ordonez currently has less than half that (6).

Morgan had 131 Gray ink points, Ordonez is well behind that at 75.

Morgan meets 54.9 HOF standards, Ordonez currently meets 32.9.

Ordonez would have to have an incredible finishing kick to merit reasonable discussion as being anywhere near as good as Morgan.

[sturg1dj]

I was just looking at the baseball-reference.com page for Magglio and his HOF monitor is now just over 100, which according to them means he should be in the hall of fame (or likely hall of famer...I forget)


I never thought of him as one, but now I have to wonder

thoughts

[jalbright]

merged threads

[Fuzzy Bear]

His stats are good, and if he caries on this years form for several more years he'd be a good bet. But if he just maintains his averages from now on then its very unlikely. He's surrounded by much bigger names that will all come eligable around the same time as him, and being "above average" at everything isnt going to cut it. Although he does have funny hair, that'll help him stand out amoungst the crowd a bit...

If Mags plays full-time until age 39-40 and keeps his lifetime BA over .300, he'll make the HOF.

He did a lot to push himself toward that goal this year; he stayed healthy and boosted his lifetime BA to .312. Mags is moving into the area where his counting stats will begin to help him IF he keeps his BA over .300. I doubt he'll get 3,000 hits, but if he keeps his BA up, he'll make the HOF with 2,500 hits.

[Captain Cold Nose]

It's rather unfortunate that magglio Ordonez great season has also been in Alex Rodriguez's greatest season.

The only way Ordonez can get in at this point would be to have a great run with a team like Boston or the Mets were under the scrutiny that every star in new York faces woould become more of a household name.

Uh, was this a combination of two or more posts?


To say a player need to play for a Boston or New York team to make the HOF is, well, beyond inaccurate in regards to HOF voting throughout history. The Mets? They've had, what, all of two players with significant time there get elected? No, Nolan Ryan doesn't count, his Mets tenure had nothing to do with his election.

There was a time the everyday press would list Ordonez's name among the best in baseball, when he was healthy and in Chicago. It'll take another good year next year for him to really be considered. This is the era of big numbers, so that has to be taken into context.

[Fuzzy Bear]

There was a time the everyday press would list Ordonez's name among the best in baseball, when he was healthy and in Chicago. It'll take another good year next year for him to really be considered. This is the era of big numbers, so that has to be taken into context.

Mags has played in two of the worst hitters parks in the AL for his entire career as well. That needs to be taken into account.

[OleMissCub]

I just don't see it. He seems just like any number of 30hr, 100+ rbi guys that we've seen over the past decade. His position as an average outfielder also hurts his chance.

If you suggest that Maggs should/will get in, then you may as well suggest that someone like Aramis Ramirez should get in (4 years younger but is only 25hr behind Maggs).

I will admit that Maggs' plate discipline and batting average are very nice for a power rbi type guy.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I just don't see it. He seems just like any number of 30hr, 100+ rbi guys that we've seen over the past decade. His position as an average outfielder also hurts his chance.

If you suggest that Maggs should/will get in, then you may as well suggest that someone like Aramis Ramirez should get in (4 years younger but is only 25hr behind Maggs).

I will admit that Maggs' plate discipline and batting average are very nice for a power rbi type guy.

If Mags got to 2,500 hits, hit .310 lifetime, with power rates like he's showing now, what precedent would there be for keeping him out?

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Maggs is an interesting case. Throughout his career, when he's played, he's played well. His chances were really hurt by missing most of '04 and '05, but then they were helped by his career year in '07 (as much for making him a household name as for adding to his stats). Until this year, he'd always been very good, but never great. Although it certainly wouldn't hurt, he doesn't absolutely need another year like '07 to get in the HOF. Four years at the rate he was hitting during 1999-2003 would probably get him in. I wouldn't bet on him doing it, but I hope he proves me wrong.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

I'm hoping to revive this thread a year after Magglio's career year. No one expected him to duplicate 2007, and he didn't, but he's still having a very good year - he should end up with around a .320 average, 20 homers, and 100 RBIs. Before 2007, he was a good player, but he wasn't a household name. 2007 did a lot for him in terms of getting his name out there. I think a mediocre year in 2008 would've caused him to slip back into relative obscurity, so it's good that he produced. He also hit his 250th homer and drove in his 1,000th run. I think his ticket to the HOF will be as a high batting average guy. His career average is currently .313. I don't think he can afford to let that fall very much. Another batting title this year would help tremendously - he's currently five points off of the lead. Throughout his career, his performance has been incredibly consistent - when he's played, he's played well. He'll turn 35 this winter though, and there's a chance that his production could suddenly plummit at any moment. If he ages well and has four or five more seasons like this one, I think he'll eventually get in. If not, he might end up forgotten. What do you think?

[Brad Harris]

Ordonez reminds me of Moises Alou. It's unlikely he'll get in, but how his career ends will certainly be the determining factor.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Ordonez reminds me of Moises Alou. It's unlikely he'll get in, but how his career ends will certainly be the determining factor.

Here's Mags' best 10 comps:

Wally Berger (935)
Carlos Lee (916)
Hack Wilson (912) *
Hal Trosky (910)
Ken Williams (906)
Brian Giles (889)
Pedro Guerrero (889)
Jermaine Dye (888)
Bob Meusel (888)
Tony Oliva (886)

What these guys have in common is this: All but one (Wilson) is a HOFer, but ALL of them would have been HOFers had they done what they did for 3-4 more years. Some of these guys got a late start (Giles). Some of these guys had serious injuries (Guerrero, Oliva). None of these guys were superstars, but all of them would have been HOFers if you added 3-4 full seasons to their careers.

Barring a major injury, Mags is going to end up with a BA over .300, at least 2,300 hits, and around 350 HRs. This puts him way beyond Moises Alou in counting stats. Mags is very much on a HOF pace, and that factors in a reasonable amount of decline. Mags has had one major injury in his career, but he hasn't has a series of injuries and missed more than one whole season with an injury; plus, he's had some of his best years AFTER his big injury.

Another thing going for Mags is that he's a career RF; he only DHs occasionally to get a rest.

When it's all said and done, the memories of players fade, and their stats come to the fore. When it's all over, there will not be a lot that separates Mags from, say, Jim Edmonds. Edmonds, as of now, is a more memorable player; more WebGems plays, a more distinct and exciting image, a perception as a front-line star (or, at least, of having been a front-line star), while Mags is considered to be a minor star by most who think about him. I think most people think Edmonds has been the better player, and he probably has been. But 5 years after Mags retires, folks are going to forget what made Edmonds special; all they're really going to see are the stats. And the stats are going to show the following:


Mags with a higher BA

Mags with more career HRs

Mags with more career RBIs

Mags with more career hits

Mags (possibly) with more career runs scored


By then, his comps will have changed; he will have AT LEAST 5 HOFers as his best comps. And they'll be guys that are in the middle of the HOF; they won't be the inner-circle superstars, but they will be guys that all of us here, pretty much, will concede are legit picks for Cooperstown.

I consider Mags a 50-50 shot for the HOF right now; 50-50 in the sense that if he continues to play and avoids a major injury, he's likely to finish out his career with at least the raw numbers that put him in the middle of the HOF. And every year he puts up like this one is a year where his chances go up 5-10 percent.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Mags is a guy who's hurt his chances this year, if you look his career from one angle, but not terribly so, if you look at it from another angle.

Mags is at .294 BA with a .361 OBP this year. He's missed time, and he's lost power. He's become semi-platooned. On the other hand, he still may finish over .300, and the Tigers will go to the postseason again.

If Mags makes it back to .300 for the season, he'll maintain a decent shot at the HOF if he keeps his production level around where he is for a few more years. The problem that Mags has is that he's declined. A .300-plus BA tends to disguise a decline, but if Mags doesn't make it back to .300 by the end of the season, this will have an implication as to how much playing time he gets next year.

Mags is getting to the point where his future playing time is in danger. His OWP is under .500 for the season, and that means that, as a RF, his managers are going to continue to look for supplements and replacements for Mags. Not playing truly full-time will hurt Mags' ability to appear to finish strong, and it will affect his career hit total. I don't think Mags needs 3,000 hits for the HOF, but he's only at 1,950 hits now, and he'll be a "short career guy" with too low a peak to make it if he retired now. To make the HOF, Mags needs to keep his BA at .305-.310 and he needs to get 2,500 hits. Otherwise, he'll be a thread topic, but a poor BBWAA ballot performer.

[Jsquared83]

Bobby Abreu is well ahead of Ordonez in line for the HOF and his chances hinge on his ability to play another 3-4 years at current levels. Abreu has shown he can in 09, not so much for Magglio.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Bobby Abreu is well ahead of Ordonez in line for the HOF and his chances hinge on his ability to play another 3-4 years at current levels. Abreu has shown he can in 09, not so much for Magglio.


There's a WHOLE lot to respond to in this short little post.

As to your basic (implied) assertion that Abreu is better than Mags, and by a decent margin, I have to agree. Mags has had a slightly sub-Jim Rice career. Abreu has had a slightly sub-Al Kaline career; indeed, to date, he's performed (for his career) at or near the career norms of Kaline, moreso than Mags has performed at or near the career levels of Rice.

Whether or not Abreu is doing better than Mags in terms of a potential HOF candidacy is debatable. I say this because when you get into the HOF gray area, the better player of two contemporaries or comparables often is the one to NOT go into the HOF.

Bill James has often said that as time passes, selection to the HOF rests more and more on a player's batting stats, and, particularly, their triple crown stats. In the long run, Mags will have an advantage over Abreu, in that Mags will probably end his career hitting .305 with a degree of power. The more people look at that, the more people will view Mags as an unrecognized star. It's entirely possible that Mags could be one and done; Will Clark, Albert Belle, and Lou Whitaker were all far more deserving of the HOF than Mags is likely to be, and they were all one and done. On the other hand, if Mags survives that hurdle, he moves into the area where his BA, in concert with his other numbers, begin to influence the BBWAA.

If Abreu keeps it over .300, and gets to 400 HRs, he's likely to get into the HOF, albeit not on the first ballot. I'm not sure Abreu could do this, however. Abreu's lost power, and is unlikely to crack 400 HRs, plus the normal aging process puts him at risk to finish his career at .298, and that's going to make him look Jim Rice-ish. Unless sabermetrics has made a far greater impression on the BBWAA than it appears to have, I personally think that over the long haul, Mags will (undeservedly) be a stronger HOF candidate than Abreu.

[Jsquared83]

There's a WHOLE lot to respond to in this short little post.

Haha yea, it's kind of a loaded post that contains a lot of variables and such but in short, i'd say both guys were about even through 2008. Mags the edge with a batting title and some lofty single season RBI totals, Abreu the bigger edges in speed, OBP and most importantly not having a huge decline this year.

[Jsquared83]

There's a WHOLE lot to respond to in this short little post.

As to your basic (implied) assertion that Abreu is better than Mags, and by a decent margin, I have to agree. Mags has had a slightly sub-Jim Rice career. Abreu has had a slightly sub-Al Kaline career; indeed, to date, he's performed (for his career) at or near the career norms of Kaline, moreso than Mags has performed at or near the career levels of Rice.

Whether or not Abreu is doing better than Mags in terms of a potential HOF candidacy is debatable. I say this because when you get into the HOF gray area, the better player of two contemporaries or comparables often is the one to NOT go into the HOF.

Bill James has often said that as time passes, selection to the HOF rests more and more on a player's batting stats, and, particularly, their triple crown stats. In the long run, Mags will have an advantage over Abreu, in that Mags will probably end his career hitting .305 with a degree of power. The more people look at that, the more people will view Mags as an unrecognized star. It's entirely possible that Mags could be one and done; Will Clark, Albert Belle, and Lou Whitaker were all far more deserving of the HOF than Mags is likely to be, and they were all one and done. On the other hand, if Mags survives that hurdle, he moves into the area where his BA, in concert with his other numbers, begin to influence the BBWAA.

If Abreu keeps it over .300, and gets to 400 HRs, he's likely to get into the HOF, albeit not on the first ballot. I'm not sure Abreu could do this, however. Abreu's lost power, and is unlikely to crack 400 HRs, plus the normal aging process puts him at risk to finish his career at .298, and that's going to make him look Jim Rice-ish. Unless sabermetrics has made a far greater impression on the BBWAA than it appears to have, I personally think that over the long haul, Mags will (undeservedly) be a stronger HOF candidate than Abreu.

Just saw the rest of your post. I agree with just about everything. I would even go out on a limb and say to date, Abreu's career is more valuable than Jim Rice's if Bobby never played another game. Abreu isnt getting to 400 HR though, but he doesnt need to. 325 HR with 27-2800 Hits and his .300 ave should do the trick. How many guys in general have at a minimum 300 HR, 2500 Hits and a 132 OPS+ arent in the hall? (non PED users of course)

[Jsquared83]

And back to Ordonez, I think Carlos Lee is wayyy ahead of Mags given their ages, level of play and I dont hear too many ppl touting Carlos as a future HOF, not yet at least.

[Freakshow]

Ordonez and Abreu are exactly the same age, born in early 1974.

Here's their age cohort, active position players who were born 7/1/73 - 12/31/74, 3750+ PA.
Cnt Player OPS+ RC BrYr PA From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+-----+----+----+
1 Todd Helton 140 1608 1973 7698 1997 2009
2 Bobby Abreu 132 1497 1974 8359 1996 2009
3 Magglio Ordonez 127 1149 1974 6963 1997 2009
4 Nomar Garciaparra 124 1043 1973 6097 1996 2009
5 Hideki Matsui 124 600 1974 3768 2003 2009
6 Derek Jeter 121 1576 1974 9754 1995 2009
7 Mike Sweeney 118 898 1973 5655 1995 2009
8 Ichiro Suzuki 117 1038 1973 6536 2001 2009
9 Jermaine Dye 111 1057 1974 7175 1996 2009
10 Miguel Tejada 111 1107 1974 7947 1997 2009
11 Mike Lowell 110 887 1974 6211 1998 2009
12 Frank Catalanotto 108 618 1974 4262 1997 2009
13 Casey Blake 107 571 1973 4256 1999 2009
14 Johnny Damon 105 1393 1973 9386 1995 2009
15 Doug Mientkiewicz 100 500 1974 3834 1998 2009
16 Randy Winn 100 886 1974 6603 1998 2009
17 Jason Kendall 96 1062 1974 8162 1996 2009
18 Darin Erstad 93 859 1974 6605 1996 2009
19 Gary Matthews 92 565 1974 4523 1999 2009
20 Bengie Molina 88 528 1974 4716 1998 2009
21 Orlando Cabrera 85 834 1974 7161 1997 2009
Except for Jeter and Suzuki, there's a lot of guys on the HOF fence here.

[EricAnno]

Except for Jeter and Suzuki, there's a lot of guys on the HOF fence here.

I'd like to think that Helton is an automatic Hall of Famer right now. At least more than Suzuki.

[Freakshow]

I'd like to think that Helton is an automatic Hall of Famer right now. At least more than Suzuki.Well, these have their own threads, but briefly: although I would agree he is deserving right now, Helton has the "Coors Effect" working against him; and he is still a little short of the counting stats of a hall of fame first baseman. Two more productive years makes him a shoo-in for the voters.

Suzuki has not one, but two fabulous careers under his belt and is already well beyond 3,000 hits. The Black Ink test and the Hall of Fame Monitor agree that Ichiro! has a higher fame quotient than Helton.

[Fuzzy Bear]

And back to Ordonez, I think Carlos Lee is wayyy ahead of Mags given their ages, level of play and I dont hear too many ppl touting Carlos as a future HOF, not yet at least.


There's a thread about Lee somewhere. He's finishing strong, but he's not as good an offensive player as Mags, at least if you go by OWP.

Guys like Lee, who aren't .300 hitters and don't have HR titles, tend to NOT make the HOF. Lee's only got 307 HRs; he's kind of a Tony Perez case if he stays active. Truthfully, most guys who do what Lee does DON'T make the HOF, even if they make it to 400 HRs. If Lee makes it to 500 HRs (somewhat unlikely), or finishes over .300 lifetime (HIGHLY unlikely), he'll make the HOF. He really doesn't hit with enough power to last to 500 jacks, and he doesn't have enough plate discipline to stay in the game once he loses a certain level of bat speed. I'm not optimistic about Lee in the least.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Just saw the rest of your post. I agree with just about everything. I would even go out on a limb and say to date, Abreu's career is more valuable than Jim Rice's if Bobby never played another game. Abreu isnt getting to 400 HR though, but he doesnt need to. 325 HR with 27-2800 Hits and his .300 ave should do the trick. How many guys in general have at a minimum 300 HR, 2500 Hits and a 132 OPS+ arent in the hall? (non PED users of course)

Abreu may not even get to 300 HR but I don't think he needs to do that even. The problem with Abreu is that people view him through the lens of some other big power #3-type hitters and feel he's not quite up to par. Instead, if Abreu was judged as the Paul Molitor-type speed/OBP player he is, the perception would change quite quickly. If you recall, rarely was Molitor the 'best ' player on his team save for 3-4 years; rarely did Molitor have the best offensive stats on his team as well. But cumulatively the high BA's, combined with the solid XBH totals and SB numbers + longevity punched Molitor's ticket into Cooperstown.

Abreu, in my opinion, is very much in the Molitor mold except with more power, less injury prone but a little less speed. Abreu, like Molitor, could beat you in many different ways outside of the almightly HR. When people start realizing his game is more about getting on base (47th All-time .4043 OBP) and speed (347 SB; +75% rate), perhaps they'll appreciate more that the power that goes along with his style of play is really quite HOF worthy. He is already more worthy that Jim Rice at this point and clearly better than Ordonez at this point int heir careers.

My hope is that he will get acknowledged by a broad base of fans and writers before he retires. He really is one of the most complete offensive players in the HISTORY of MLB. Regardless of whether he hits 300 HR or bats .300 (which he probably falls just under), I think he clearly HOF worthy if he puts another 3 years together of the same quality that he gave this year. That would give him a 15 year uninterrupted stretch of good to great numbers. When the worst year of your 13 year career is .283 / 123 R / 101 RBI / 25 SB you know you've done pretty well.

[538280]

Another possible HOF candidate in the mold of Abreu and Ordonez as a RFer from this decade is Brian Giles. Giles has only about 100 less games played than Abreu and has a 136 OPS+ vs. Abreu's 132. Giles is playing horribly this season and even though he had a very good 2008 I suspect his career could be over after this year, which probably will end his chances of getting elected. However I do think he compares pretty well against other OFers such as Jim Rice, who IMO he is much better than. Abreu vs. Giles right now is an interesting comparison, Giles doesn't have the speed dimension of Abreu and may be a worse fielder but he has probably been a little better hitter and he has a truly great offensive season in 2002, Abreu doesn't have anything like that. Abreu probably will be better as he continues to play well now and Giles falls off a cliff, but Giles is definitely a better candidate than Ordonez IMO.

This discussion also reminds me of an old favorite of mine-Reggie Smith. Smith was a CFer for much of his career and put up better hitting rates than Abreu in a career of about 2000 games. Smith hit for a high average, walked a lot, and hit for power. He didn't steal like Abreu but probably was a little better hitter. He never receives hardly any HOF support. He'll always probably be one of the most underrated players in history.

[PVNICK]

Another possible HOF candidate in the mold of Abreu and Ordonez as a RFer from this decade is Brian Giles. Giles has only about 100 less games played than Abreu and has a 136 OPS+ vs. Abreu's 132. Giles is playing horribly this season and even though he had a very good 2008 I suspect his career could be over after this year, which probably will end his chances of getting elected. However I do think he compares pretty well against other OFers such as Jim Rice, who IMO he is much better than. Abreu vs. Giles right now is an interesting comparison, Giles doesn't have the speed dimension of Abreu and may be a worse fielder but he has probably been a little better hitter and he has a truly great offensive season in 2002, Abreu doesn't have anything like that. Abreu probably will be better as he continues to play well now and Giles falls off a cliff, but Giles is definitely a better candidate than Ordonez IMO.

This discussion also reminds me of an old favorite of mine-Reggie Smith. Smith was a CFer for much of his career and put up better hitting rates than Abreu in a career of about 2000 games. Smith hit for a high average, walked a lot, and hit for power. He didn't steal like Abreu but probably was a little better hitter. He never receives hardly any HOF support. He'll always probably be one of the most underrated players in history.

I was shocked (and pleased) when I saw Reggie Smith in the top 100 position players by WAR over at baseballprojection.

[Paul Wendt]

This discussion also reminds me of an old favorite of mine-Reggie Smith. Smith was a CFer for much of his career and put up better hitting rates than Abreu in a career of about 2000 games. Smith hit for a high average, walked a lot, and hit for power. He didn't steal like Abreu but probably was a little better hitter. He never receives hardly any HOF support. He'll always probably be one of the most underrated players in history.

Reggie Smith was elected to the Hall of Merit last year. Finishing third in that election (2009 results (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/2009_results/)) he became the 237th member including now 57 who are not in the Hall of Fame.

Anyone may vote, annually in November, by following some rules. One rule is to post a preliminary ballot in the 2010 Discussion thread that is already underway. It's likely that the group will elect three newly eligible players this year (listed at the top of the Discussion (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/2010_ballot_discussion/)), who roughly match the newcomers on the BBWAA ballot.

--
One thing going for Reggie Smith at the Hall of Merit distinguishes him from Magglio Ordonez and most other players mentioned here. That is several seasons at centerfield, not enough to earn him popular classification as a centerfielder but the HOM doesn't let popularity get in the way.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Another possible HOF candidate in the mold of Abreu and Ordonez as a RFer from this decade is Brian Giles. Giles has only about 100 less games played than Abreu and has a 136 OPS+ vs. Abreu's 132. Giles is playing horribly this season and even though he had a very good 2008 I suspect his career could be over after this year, which probably will end his chances of getting elected. However I do think he compares pretty well against other OFers such as Jim Rice, who IMO he is much better than. Abreu vs. Giles right now is an interesting comparison, Giles doesn't have the speed dimension of Abreu and may be a worse fielder but he has probably been a little better hitter and he has a truly great offensive season in 2002, Abreu doesn't have anything like that. Abreu probably will be better as he continues to play well now and Giles falls off a cliff, but Giles is definitely a better candidate than Ordonez IMO.

This discussion also reminds me of an old favorite of mine-Reggie Smith. Smith was a CFer for much of his career and put up better hitting rates than Abreu in a career of about 2000 games. Smith hit for a high average, walked a lot, and hit for power. He didn't steal like Abreu but probably was a little better hitter. He never receives hardly any HOF support. He'll always probably be one of the most underrated players in history.

Smith has a career .693 OWP; he SHOULD be in the HOF. He's a case of a guy being penalized somewhat for broad-based skills, as opposed to a guy who achieved some particular milestone. Giles is only at .676, but that's partly because he had a HORRIBLE 2009. Giles, IMO, would be a clear-cut HOFer if he had become a regular earlier than he did, and he was certainly good enough to be. Both of these guys were better players than Mags, so it's kind of odd that it seems to me that Mags will have a better shot at the HOF. Perhaps I'm overvaluing a .300 BA in the eyes of the BBWAA, but I don't think so.