A-Rod's chase for 800 HR

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I've been thinking about how many HRs will A-Rod hit in his career. He will supass 500 HRs next season at age 32. That will make him the youngest to hit 500 HRs. They question I've asking myself can A-Rod hit 800 HRs? 850 HRs? 900 HRs? So I decided to compare him to the only professional ballplayer to hit 800+ HRs, Sadaharu Oh. I was curious to see what kind of pace Oh set by age. I was surprised to see A-Rod slightly ahead of Oh.



Oh-A.Rod
18-0--0
19-7--5
20-24--41
21-37--64
22-75--106
23-115--148
24-170--189
25-212--241
26-260--298
27-307--345
28-356--381
29-400--429
30-447--463
31-486--??
32-534--??
33-585--??
34-634--??
35-667--??
36-716--??
37-766--??
38-805--??
39-838--??
40-868--??

[bama50]

He should be the ultimate HR champion.:o

[ESPNFan]

It would put a stop to alot of Barry Bonds dramatics wouldn't it;)

[geezer]

He should be the ultimate HR champion.:o

And, what about Albert????

[Edgartohof]

And, what about Albert????

Well, since he has only half as many HR's as A-Rod, let's give it a while before we say he'll make it to #1. Sure, out of anyone, he has a greater shot than most (by quite a bit), but let's let him at least play 10 years before we say he'll hit 800+.

And anyways, he'd actually have to pass A-Rod before he could take that title, and he is still a ways away from that.

[Edgartohof]

Despite what some may say about league quality or what not, the HR numbert that Oh put up were amazing! Here are his yearly numbers (taken from post #1, so any errors there will be found here as well).

18 - 0
19 - 7
20 - 17
21 - 13
22 - 38
23 - 40
24 - 55
25 - 42
26 - 48
27 - 47
28 - 49
29 - 44
30 - 47
31 - 39
32 - 48
33 - 51
34 - 49
35 - 33
36 - 49
37 - 50
38 - 39
39 - 33
40 - 30

He hit 50+ HR's 3 times, he had an 8 year run with 40+ HR's/season, and 11 out of 12 (and 13 out of 15) seasons with 40+ HR's. He even hit 50 HR's at the age of 37!!!

I think I am underrating this guy a bit.

[wu-tang clan]

And, what about Albert????

dont forget about jason tyner, the dude can hit homers like nuthin.

[geezer]

Tyner over Mauer, yeah right!

[YankeeDJW]

It would put a stop to alot of Barry Bonds dramatics wouldn't it;)
I'm sure Bonds would figure some way to get into the spotlight in a not so positive way.

[HHReloaded]

I'm sure Bonds would figure some way to get into the spotlight in a not so positive way.

Why the hell would you think that? He's not exactly Terrell Owens :rolleyes:

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Despite what some may say about league quality or what not, the HR numbert that Oh put up were amazing! Here are his yearly numbers (taken from post #1, so any errors there will be found here as well).

18 - 0
19 - 7
20 - 17
21 - 13
22 - 38
23 - 40
24 - 55
25 - 42
26 - 48
27 - 47
28 - 49
29 - 44
30 - 47
31 - 39
32 - 48
33 - 51
34 - 49
35 - 33
36 - 49
37 - 50
38 - 39
39 - 33
40 - 30

He hit 50+ HR's 3 times, he had an 8 year run with 40+ HR's/season, and 11 out of 12 (and 13 out of 15) seasons with 40+ HR's. He even hit 50 HR's at the age of 37!!!

I think I am underrating this guy a bit.
Yes, Oh is very underrated. I don't understand why many people put Oscar Charleston, Josh Gibson, and Satchel Paige among the greatest at their position but they will not even consider putting Oh in the top 10 or top 20 among first basemen of all time. :rolleyes: I personally would put him in the top 7-8 but that's just me.

[Sockeye]

Despite what some may say about league quality or what not, the HR numbert that Oh put up were amazing! Here are his yearly numbers (taken from post #1, so any errors there will be found here as well).

18 - 0
19 - 7
20 - 17
21 - 13
22 - 38
23 - 40
24 - 55
25 - 42
26 - 48
27 - 47
28 - 49
29 - 44
30 - 47
31 - 39
32 - 48
33 - 51
34 - 49
35 - 33
36 - 49
37 - 50
38 - 39
39 - 33
40 - 30

He hit 50+ HR's 3 times, he had an 8 year run with 40+ HR's/season, and 11 out of 12 (and 13 out of 15) seasons with 40+ HR's. He even hit 50 HR's at the age of 37!!!

I think I am underrating this guy a bit.

The thing that really stands out to me is that while Arod is ahead of Oh's current pace at age 30 and will likely remain ahead of Oh's pace through age 31. Oh hit 148 home runs from ages 32-34 and 280 home runs from ages 32-37. That is incredible production at that age or any age really but even more so from 32-37. 102 home runs between the ages 38-40 isn't too shabby either. So while Arod is currently ahead of Oh's pace I think it very unlikely he'll remain ahead of his pace past age 32, 33 at the latest.

[overhandgas53]

The thing he was to worry about is to not have another hitting slump like he had a couple months ago and get back to hitting 40+ HRs.

[trosmok]

The thing he was to worry about is ....

..hitting better than .133 in the post season.:laugh

Seriously, no one, not even Alex hit as many HR at such a young age as Josh Gibson, the real all-time Home Run King.:lookitup

[Brooklyn]

Despite what some may say about league quality or what not, the HR numbert that Oh put up were amazing! Here are his yearly numbers (taken from post #1, so any errors there will be found here as well).

18 - 0
19 - 7
20 - 17
21 - 13
22 - 38
23 - 40
24 - 55
25 - 42
26 - 48
27 - 47
28 - 49
29 - 44
30 - 47
31 - 39
32 - 48
33 - 51
34 - 49
35 - 33
36 - 49
37 - 50
38 - 39
39 - 33
40 - 30

He hit 50+ HR's 3 times, he had an 8 year run with 40+ HR's/season, and 11 out of 12 (and 13 out of 15) seasons with 40+ HR's. He even hit 50 HR's at the age of 37!!!

I think I am underrating this guy a bit.

Don't forget that the Japenese baseball season is only 130 (or so) games long. So 50 Hr's in a 130 game season is equivalent to 62 Hrs in a 162 game season. Of course, there are many other differences that factor in as well

[DoubleX]

Fans generally dislike A-Rod, but this should actually be a reason to root for A-Rod, given how much fans outside of San Francisco, dislike Bonds more than A-Rod.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

..hitting better than .133 in the post season.:laugh

Seriously, no one, not even Alex hit as many HR at such a young age as Josh Gibson, the real all-time Home Run King.:lookitup

Oh brother. :rolleyes: And of course you have documented historical evidence for all these supposed HRs Gibson hit in league play, right? Barnstorming and exhibitions don't count.

[maximum jack]

Yes, Oh is very underrated. I don't understand why many people put Oscar Charleston, Josh Gibson, and Satchel Paige among the greatest at their position but they will not even consider putting Oh in the top 10 or top 20 among first basemen of all time. :rolleyes: I personally would put him in the top 7-8 but that's just me.

Even today, we think of the Japanese Pro League (not sure what they call it) as inferior to MLB, right? I mean there's a disccussion about Matsusaka over in the Red Sox forum going on right now, and the consensus is that it is a good league, but not at the same level as MLB (well maybe the National league). So wouldn't it be logical to belive that the same league was even more inferior in SO's day? As for why the great players of Negro Leagues are far more revered: Many Americans actually saw these games and players. How many Americans went across the Pacific to Watch Oh?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Even today, we think of the Japanese Pro League (not sure what they call it) as inferior to MLB, right? I mean there's a disccussion about Matsusaka over in the Red Sox forum going on right now, and the consensus is that it is a good league, but not at the same level as MLB (well maybe the National league). So wouldn't it be logical to belive that the same league was even more inferior in SO's day? As for why the great players of Negro Leagues are far more revered: Many Americans actually saw these games and players. How many Americans went across the Pacific to Watch Oh?
Japanese baseball has never been at the same level as the majors. Neither were the Negro League ever remotely close to the quality of major league baseball. No one makes that argument. But the Japanese baseball was and is better organized that the Negro Legues ever were . How many fans are left that saw the Negro Leagues? How many people here at BBF ever actually saw Josh Gibosn, Oscar Charleston, or Satchel Paige play? As for the people that really study the game's history and it's great players there is no reason why they shouldn't study Sadaharu's career. We have much more available information about Oh's career than we do of say Josh Gibson. I have great respect for the Negro League players. I just want the Japanese players to get the same respect. I opened up a thread about a year ago comparing OH, supposed 900+ HRs vs Oh's 868 HRs. A sizeable minority considered Gibson's 900+ HRs as the greater achievement even though there is great historical debate over whether Gibson even came close to hitting so many HRs. Some argue that the 900+ number is simply made up. We know for sure that Oh did in fact hit 868 HRs.

http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=38028

[Honus Wagner Rules]

So what kind of odds do you guys give A-Rod to hit 800+ HRs?

[maximum jack]

How many fans are left that saw the Negro Leagues? How many people here at BBF ever actually saw Josh Gibosn, Oscar Charleston, or Satchel Paige play?

I'm not sure (probably not many), but like it or not, there is a sizeable community in the U.S. who feel a connection to the Negro Leagues--either because they saw it (or played in it), or their parents/grandparents saw it (or played in it) and passed on the history. I'm not saying this is fair, it's just the way it is. So it doesn't surprise me that Oh is not mentioned among discussions of the game's greats-- at least not among Americans.

As for A-Rod, I think he's at better than 50-50 chance to break 800.

[geezer]

And what about Manny?????

[Honus Wagner Rules]

And what about Manny?????
Manny has 469 HRs and A-Rod has 463. But Manny is three years older than A-Rod.

[Seattle1]

Fans generally dislike A-Rod, but this should actually be a reason to root for A-Rod, given how much fans outside of San Francisco, dislike Bonds more than A-Rod.

I don't know why people dislike A-Rod anyway. I don't dislike A-Rod, I just wish he still played for the Mariners. We made him afterall.

[EvanAparra]

And what about Manny?????

And Manny is much more likely to retire early, IMO. And he takes a lot of days off, and hes an idiot.

[Mariano_Rivera]

And Manny is much more likely to retire early, IMO. And he takes a lot of days off, and hes an idiot.
:clapping :clapping :clapping :clapping

I would love to see Alex do this, he's my favorite player actually. If he goes on to break the all-time career HR record would the Yankees retire his number, Jeter's number and Mo's number? Jeter because he is the captain and has led the Yankees to several championships, Mo because he is the greatest relief pitcher in history and A-Rod assuming he hit over 755? That's 3 numbers retired from, the same era. I would have to think that A-Rod would be the odd-man out because he is sometimes so reviled by the fans and because he isn`t a career Yankee. Would and should they retire all three? I think 800 is a little extreme. I see the era changing to an improved league with pitching with many young pitchers coming up especially in the AL. Not to mention Yankee Stadium's dimensions. He should have 500 HR by at least early 2008 at age 32 if he has no more HR this year and has a poor year in 2007. At present he needs 37 HR to reach the milestone of 500. 337 more HR to hit 800, 251 to hit 714 and 292 to his 755. This is what he needs for notable milestones

500- 37

550- 87

600- 137

650- 187

700- 237

714- 251

755- 292

800- 337

Current- 463

I`m not sure what the dimensions for New Yankee Stadium will be so I`ll just assume that they're the same as the current Yankee Stadium.

Lets assume he plays until age 36. Then he needs 6 HR a year to reach 500, 15 a year to reach 550, 22 a year to reach 600, 31 a year to reach 650, 40 a year to reach 700, 42 a year to reach 714, 49 a year to reach 755 and 56 a year to reach 800. It seems painfully obvious that he will reach 600 barring injury, he will probably hit 650 as well. 700 and beyond seems a little more doubful but 714 is possible, very unlikely but still possible. If he plays until 36 800 is all but impossible unless he talks to Greg Anderson.

However, it is likely that he would play beyond age 36. If it's age 38 then lets assume he would hit 650 (if he hits 31 a year through age 36 he would have it and that csounds fairly likely). To hit 700 he would have to hit 30 a year, to hit 714 he would have to hit 31 a year, to hit 755 he would have to hit 37 a year and to hit 800 he would have to hit 42 a year. Looking at how he's done in 2004 and 2006 he seems to have sadly entered his decline phase and the dimensions of Yankee Stadium is not helping him. I doubt that from 36-38 he could hit more than 32-33 HR a year and he would probably hit somewhere from 28-32 during those years. Once again, barring injury that would mean he can probably hit 700 HR by age 38 and 714 seems about just as likely. He could hit 755 if he has another two or three 40 HR seasons left in him. 800 still seems unlikely though.

It's possible he could play until age 40. He would then have to hit 29 HR a year to hit 755 and 34 to hit 800 HR. If he sticks around and can manage a 30 HR season and a 20 HR season at ages 39 and 40 it's definitely possible for him to hit 755 and 800. If he plays beyond that and can manage 10-30 HR seasons beyond age 40 then it's almost a guarentee for him to break Aaron's record and to get 800.

I seem him retiring fairly early, at age 38-39. If he does that and can stay as healthy as any 38 year old 3rd baseman is he`ll definitly reach 500, 550, 600, 650. He`ll also have a great chance of reach 700 and 714. The real test would be 755 and if he plays long enough he might even hit 800

90% chance of hitting at least 650

75% chance of hitting at least 714

50% chance of hitting 755

30% chance of hitting 800

[ChrisLDuncan]

I dunno I'd say that A-Rod has a good chance to get 800 HRs, hell in his "worst" season he only hit 34.

[Blackout]

he hit 35 this year ;)

[trosmok]

Oh brother. :rolleyes: And of course you have documented historical evidence for all these supposed HRs Gibson hit in league play, right?...

Bad attitudes and lingering prejudices make it all the more difficult, but the good folks at the Center for Negro League Baseball Research are dedicated to getting all the records available assembled. These include the rich history of oral tradition that many illiterate, and semi-literate souls depend on for the truth to be passed to the next generations. In 1932 while with the Crawfords, Josh hit 75 HRs, registered a .380 BA, in 123 regular season games. In 1933 we have documented 72 HRs, and 69 dingers in 1934. His years in the Mexican League (1940-42) are proving tougher to gather reliable stats, but we do know he won batting titles in 1936, '38, '43, and in 1945 hit an incredible .393. With a little patience and a lot of digging we'll someday arrive at a highly reliable number of homers for his 17 year career, and it may well be over 800, or less than 700, but either way it was a remarkable career for Josh the Great. For more on the latest find by the CNLBR see:

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060928/SPORTS/609280422/-1/ARCHIVE

One of the best examples of the oral history tradition as valid as any history, you might want to pick up a copy of Theodore Rosengarten's acclaimed biography "All God's Dangers: The Life of Nate Shaw" .[I] Great winter reading while waiting for opening day. For a brief intro, see:

http://www.nathanielturner.com/allgodsdangersnateshaw.htm

Another fascinating book that debunks persistent myths by the use of courthouse records, newspaper accounts, and interviews with several generations of relatives is "[I]Feud: Hatfields, McCoys and Social Change in Appalachia 1860-1900" by Altina L. Waller see:

http://www.amazon.ca/Feud-Hatfields-Social-Appalachia-1860-1900/dp/0807842168

[JimAbbott]

Hate to rain on the Arod parade but he's a long way off from 600, 700 or 800 HRs. I know he's young but t be safe we should compare his numbers at similar age to Jimmy Foxx. Please do this and get back to me

[Brooklyn]

Hate to rain on the Arod parade but he's a long way off from 600, 700 or 800 HRs. I know he's young but t be safe we should compare his numbers at similar age to Jimmy Foxx. Please do this and get back to me

Good point in that "you never know", but Foxx's decline was much more dramatic than most. It would be more surprising if A-Rod followed Foxx's career path then if he had a more normal decline.

[hellborn]

Good point in that "you never know", but Foxx's decline was much more dramatic than most. It would be more surprising if A-Rod followed Foxx's career path then if he had a more normal decline.

Foxx was a serious alcoholic...ARod doesn't seem to be in serious danger of falling into that trap. Ted Williams said that he knew Foxx would not be able to stay a top player for much longer when he saw how much Jimmie drank when Ted was a rookie.

But, I would remind everybody to think of Griffey Jr. Ten or so years ago, how many people thought he would be the man to break Aaron's record? Serious injury, or injuries, cannot be predicted or definitely avoided by any player. I think that ARod does a MUCH better job of staying in shape than Griffey Jr., but that's still no guarantee.

[hellborn]

Don't forget that the Japenese baseball season is only 130 (or so) games long. So 50 Hr's in a 130 game season is equivalent to 62 Hrs in a 162 game season. Of course, there are many other differences that factor in as well
Japanese parks were very much smaller than US parks in Oh's day, generally something like 300 down the line and 350-60 to center. Oh drew a tremendous number of walks and was hitting lots of HR in small number of AB, but also in small parks.
Don't forget that former marginal US players like Tuffy Rhodes and Randy Bass have tied or come close to Oh's single-season mark of 55...of course, Brady Anderson and Luis Gonzales hit 50 HR in the states, so you can turn that argument against us, too. No telling how many HR Bob Horner would have hit in his one season there if he had played the whole year.
US players who played against Oh in his prime were unanimous in their praise of his skills and all said that he'd be a star in the US, but I doubt that he would have been a hitter of quite the magnitude of Aaron. I think that they were less bowled over by Nagashima, who was far more popular than Oh in Japan (at least partly) because he was 100% Japanese, but he was still considered to be ML material.
As a final note, Hideki Matsui was called "Godzilla" in Japan because of his monstrous power...the man is a fine ML hitter, but does he blow any of you away with his overwhelming power??

[Seattle1]

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/287166_chad02.html

The Couch Slouch: Ask A-Rod: N.Y. fans are jerks

By NORMAN CHAD
SPECIAL TO THE P-I

Here's the good news for Alex Rodriguez: He's the best player in baseball playing in the greatest city in the world. Here's the bad news for Alex Rodriguez: If the Yankees lose this postseason and he plays poorly, they'll run his two-time MVP butt out of town in a New York minute.

Therein lies the contradiction that is the Big Apple -- unmatched cultural mecca, stinkin' sports hellhole.

[Continued...]

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Japanese parks were very much smaller than US parks in Oh's day, generally something like 300 down the line and 350-60 to center. Oh drew a tremendous number of walks and was hitting lots of HR in small number of AB, but also in small parks.
Don't forget that former marginal US players like Tuffy Rhodes and Randy Bass have tied or come close to Oh's single-season mark of 55...of course, Brady Anderson and Luis Gonzales hit 50 HR in the states, so you can turn that argument against us, too. No telling how many HR Bob Horner would have hit in his one season there if he had played the whole year.
US players who played against Oh in his prime were unanimous in their praise of his skills and all said that he'd be a star in the US, but I doubt that he would have been a hitter of quite the magnitude of Aaron. I think that they were less bowled over by Nagashima, who was far more popular than Oh in Japan (at least partly) because he was 100% Japanese, but he was still considered to be ML material.
As a final note, Hideki Matsui was called "Godzilla" in Japan because of his monstrous power...the man is a fine ML hitter, but does he blow any of you away with his overwhelming power??
Ok, my intention for this thread was not to compare Oh to A-Rod or any other major leaguer. I only used Oh because he is the only professional baseball player to hit over 800 HRs and I wanted to see how A-Rod stacked up in terms of HR pace by age. Obviously if A-Rod hits 800+ HR it would clearly be considered a superior performance to Oh's 868 HRs.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Japanese parks were very much smaller than US parks in Oh's day, generally something like 300 down the line and 350-60 to center. Oh drew a tremendous number of walks and was hitting lots of HR in small number of AB, but also in small parks.
Don't forget that former marginal US players like Tuffy Rhodes and Randy Bass have tied or come close to Oh's single-season mark of 55...of course, Brady Anderson and Luis Gonzales hit 50 HR in the states, so you can turn that argument against us, too. No telling how many HR Bob Horner would have hit in his one season there if he had played the whole year.
US players who played against Oh in his prime were unanimous in their praise of his skills and all said that he'd be a star in the US, but I doubt that he would have been a hitter of quite the magnitude of Aaron. I think that they were less bowled over by Nagashima, who was far more popular than Oh in Japan (at least partly) because he was 100% Japanese, but he was still considered to be ML material.
As a final note, Hideki Matsui was called "Godzilla" in Japan because of his monstrous power...the man is a fine ML hitter, but does he blow any of you away with his overwhelming power??
Some good points hellborn. From Jim Albright's fine research it seems likely that Oh would have been similar to Willie McCovey.

[Mattingly]

As a final note, Hideki Matsui was called "Godzilla" in Japan because of his monstrous power...the man is a fine ML hitter, but does he blow any of you away with his overwhelming power??
From what I remember, he was called "Godzilla" due to his physical resemblance to the monster played by actors in a rubber suit.

He's got good power, but I'm not quite ready to proclaim him the next coming of Albert Belle or Frank Thomas.

[maximum jack]

Some good points hellborn. From Jim Albright's fine research it seems likely that Oh would have been similar to Willie McCovey.

So Oh would have hit 500 homers in the most pitching dominant era of MLB? How exactly did Albright come up with this?

[maximum jack]

Nevermind, I found it online. I can't seem to find anything in his analysis about compressed bats, though. How likely would A-Rod be to reach 800 if he got to use a compressed bat?

[hellborn]

From what I remember, he was called "Godzilla" due to his physical resemblance to the monster played by actors in a rubber suit.

He's got good power, but I'm not quite ready to proclaim him the next coming of Albert Belle or Frank Thomas.

Wow, I think that Hideki is pretty harsh looking, but it's really nasty to say he resembles a cheap rubber dinosaur suit! :laugh
I got to see his mug plastered all over the place when I was in Japan last year...made the trip less pleasant.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

So Oh would have hit 500 homers in the most pitching dominant era of MLB? How exactly did Albright come up with this?
I'm glad you asked! Here you go...

http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright12.html

http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright13.html

http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright14.html

http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright16.html

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Bump. A-Rod vs Sadaharu Oh HR pace.


Age Oh A-Rod
18 0 0
19 7 5
20 24 41
21 37 64
22 75 106
23 115 148
24 170 189
25 212 241
26 260 298
27 307 345
28 356 381
29 400 429
30 447 463
31 486 496
32 534 ???
33 585 ???
34 634 ???
35 667 ???
36 716 ???
37 766 ???
38 805 ???
39 838 ???
40 868 ???

[Brooklyn]

From what I remember, he was called "Godzilla" due to his physical resemblance to the monster played by actors in a rubber suit.

He's got good power, but I'm not quite ready to proclaim him the next coming of Albert Belle or Frank Thomas.

He was nicknamed Godzilla because of his power. Here are his homeun totals from Japan:

1993: 11 (57 games)
1994: 20
1995: 22
1966: 38
1997: 37
1998: 34
1999: 42
2000: 42
2001: 36
2002: 50

All seasons but the first were 130-140 games. In total, he hit 332 in 1268 games, or one every 3.82 games (or one every 13.77 at bats)

In the US, he has hit 16, 31, 23, 8 (in 51 games), 14 (so far in 2007) for a total of 92 in 618 games, or one every 6.72 games (or one every 23.13 at bats)

He hits homeruns about half as often as he did in Japan. not once so far has he hit 36 US homeruns, which he did each of his last 7 seasons in Japan.

I think he is a pretty good case study for the differences between the leagues

[hellborn]

Bump. A-Rod vs Sadaharu Oh HR pace.


Age Oh A-Rod
18 0 0
19 7 5
20 24 41
21 37 64
22 75 106
23 115 148
24 170 189
25 212 241
26 260 298
27 307 345
28 356 381
29 400 429
30 447 463
31 486 496
32 534 ???
33 585 ???
34 634 ???
35 667 ???
36 716 ???
37 766 ???
38 805 ???
39 838 ???
40 868 ???



WOW!!! That is an eye opener...amazing that Oh retired after a 30HR season. He also hit 49HR at age 36, 50 at age 37, and 39 at age 38. Hats off to ARod if he can match that, but this is still a good indicator that he should end up with a crazy # of HRs.
I wonder if it will be mostly forgotten that ARod was not especially popular in NYC, at least through 2006, when his illustrious career is over...Clipper was not well liked due to his holdouts at young ages (while the veteran Gehrig basically took whatever Ruppert offered him), Mantle was criticized for striking out and not being DiMaggio, and Ruth had times of rocky relations with fans, including when he challenged everybody in the stands to fight. Ruth was also considered washed up after his '25 season. Looking back, people tend to forget this stuff and concentrate on the adulation.

[west coast orange and black]

^
"Sometimes it takes longer for people to appreciate you. It was that way with Hank Aaron."
-felipe alou, while comparing aaron and bonds

[BlueBlood]

So what kind of odds do you guys give A-Rod to hit 800+ HRs?

If you were to bet a dollar on him, I say you deserve to have $1.01 after he reaches Bonds' "record." It's inevitable.

As for 800+, that still could be slightly stretching it. 2-1 odds.

[538280]

I used "Bill James' Favorite Toy" as explained in his 1982 Abstract to project A-Rod's chance at 800 homers. He came out with a 33% shot. A 41% shot for 756 homers.

[swingman24]

But, I would remind everybody to think of Griffey Jr. Ten or so years ago, how many people thought he would be the man to break Aaron's record? Serious injury, or injuries, cannot be predicted or definitely avoided by any player. I think that ARod does a MUCH better job of staying in shape than Griffey Jr., but that's still no guarantee.

Excellent point. Griffey as you can tell is my fav player and has been since I was 10 years old. All anybody in baseball could talk about 8 or 9 years ago other than McGwire and Sosa single season mark was Griffey chasing down 755(even though he was also in discussion about the single season mark as well.) Everyone including the Home Run King himself Aaron thought Griffey would break it easliy and would go on to hit over 900 homers. So as my dad told me almost a decade ago a lot can happen from 400 or 500 homeruns to 755(or whatever Bonds eventually ends up with.) That's not to say A-Rod won't do it,he certainly has the talent and ability. But injuries and A-Rod's desire to play that long could and will factor into this make no mistake about it.

[Blackout]

Despite what some may say about league quality or what not, the HR numbert that Oh put up were amazing! Here are his yearly numbers (taken from post #1, so any errors there will be found here as well).

18 - 0
19 - 7
20 - 17
21 - 13
22 - 38
23 - 40
24 - 55
25 - 42
26 - 48
27 - 47
28 - 49
29 - 44
30 - 47
31 - 39
32 - 48
33 - 51
34 - 49
35 - 33
36 - 49
37 - 50
38 - 39
39 - 33
40 - 30

He hit 50+ HR's 3 times, he had an 8 year run with 40+ HR's/season, and 11 out of 12 (and 13 out of 15) seasons with 40+ HR's. He even hit 50 HR's at the age of 37!!!

I think I am underrating this guy a bit.

I don't think i can name a japanese player who's hit more than Hideki Matsui's career high of 32 in the majors now

and at the time Oh was playing, the majors were ALOT less home run crazed

I don't know about hitting 50 once, let alone thrice.

[west coast orange and black]

jimabbott: ...he's a long way off from 600, 700 or 800 HRs.

you stole my thunder, jimabbott.
as good as rodriguez is, there are no guarantees.

[Edgartohof]

Oh-A.Rod
18-0--0
19-7--5
20-24--41
21-37--64
22-75--106
23-115--148
24-170--189
25-212--241
26-260--298
27-307--345
28-356--381
29-400--429
30-447--463
31-486--499 *Season not yet over!
32-534--??
33-585--??
34-634--??
35-667--??
36-716--??
37-766--??
38-805--??
39-838--??
40-868--??

[ChrisLDuncan]

Lets wait until he gets to 600 before we start talking about this.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Lets wait until he gets to 600 before we start talking about this.

That would about late June 2009. A-Rod may hit 600 HRs before he turns 34. :bowdown:

[Edgartohof]

Oh-A.Rod
18-0--0
19-7--5
20-24--41
21-37--64
22-75--106
23-115--148
24-170--189
25-212--241
26-260--298
27-307--345
28-356--381
29-400--429
30-447--463
31-486--512 *Season not yet over!
32-534--??
33-585--??
34-634--??
35-667--??
36-716--??
37-766--??
38-805--??
39-838--??
40-868--??

As of right now, A-Rod has a 26 HR advantage over Oh, and there are still a few games to go this year, so he could still add a few more to that total. In fact, he is on pace to add another 8 or so this year, which would give him a lead of 34 going into next year, which would only put him at 14 HR behind Oh through age 32!!!

[SHOELESSJOE3]

Bad attitudes and lingering prejudices make it all the more difficult, but the good folks at the Center for Negro League Baseball Research are dedicated to getting all the records available assembled. These include the rich history of oral tradition that many illiterate, and semi-literate souls depend on for the truth to be passed to the next generations. In 1932 while with the Crawfords, Josh hit 75 HRs, registered a .380 BA, in 123 regular season games. In 1933 we have documented 72 HRs, and 69 dingers in 1934. His years in the Mexican League (1940-42) are proving tougher to gather reliable stats, but we do know he won batting titles in 1936, '38, '43, and in 1945 hit an incredible .393. With a little patience and a lot of digging we'll someday arrive at a highly reliable number of homers for his 17 year career, and it may well be over 800, or less than 700, but either way it was a remarkable career for Josh the Great. For more on the latest find by the CNLBR see:

[

Thats some charge, that you make as to why we have difficulty gathering info on Josh and others in black baseball. As though it was by design a deliberate attempt to suppress or deny. Thats not true at all, in fact records were not kept that well.
Those number you give 75, 72 and 69 home runs total 216 home runs. I have yet to see any career totals for Josh that exceeded 250 for his career. You give us in 3 seasons total that is only 34 less home runs then the 250 we often see for his whole career. Do I believe he hit more than 250, I sure do.

The Mexican League what the pitching like in that league.
Lets deal with facts not emotion. lets deal with fact and not hand me down stories. It's a shame that stats are not complete and we can never know the truth. That Josh was a great one we agree but we can't really get the handle on this situation with so many missing numbers.

[Edgartohof]

Oh-A.Rod
18-0--0
19-7--5
20-24--41
21-37--64
22-75--106
23-115--148
24-170--189
25-212--241
26-260--298
27-307--345
28-356--381
29-400--429
30-447--463
31-486--516 *Season not yet over!
32-534--??
33-585--??
34-634--??
35-667--??
36-716--??
37-766--??
38-805--??
39-838--??
40-868--??

A-Rod now has a 30 HR advantage over Oh so far. A-Rod's quest is not really Ruth or Bonds even, it is one Mr. Sodaharu Oh.

But it won't be easy, and it is in no way an assured thing.

At ages 32 and 33, Oh hit 48 and 51 HR respectively. He his 49 HR at age 36, and 50at the age of 37!!!

If A-Rod want's this, he's got his work cut out for him!

[ChrisLDuncan]

If A-Rod want's this, he's got his work cut out for him!

I hope he doesn't want this because that means he probably won't be a Yankee, he'll probably move to a more HR friendly park like Wrigley.

[Edgartohof]

I hope he doesn't want this because that means he probably won't be a Yankee, he'll probably move to a more HR friendly park like Wrigley.

Why? I think he's shown he can hit a few HR at YS.

In fact, I believe that he has hit exactly HALF of his HR this year at YS (26 and 26).

[The Splendid Splinter]

Why? I think he's shown he can hit a few HR at YS.

In fact, I believe that he has hit exactly HALF of his HR this year at YS (26 and 26).

true... but he also hit 35 and 36 2 years with the yankees. at a more friendly HR park, he will consistently be over 40 HRs every year for the next oh... probably 5 or 6 years.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

FYI

A-Rod is 10 runs short and 13 RBI short for 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBI. It's interesting that his career runs and RBI totals are so close together. Anyway, 1,500 runs and RBI are great career totals and A-Rod's only 32! It looks like he has an excellent shot at the all time career runs and RBI records.

[geezer]

FYI

A-Rod is 10 runs short and 13 RBI short for 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBI. It's interesting that his career runs and RBI totals are so close together. Anyway, 1,500 runs and RBI are great career totals and A-Rod's only 32! It looks like he has an excellent shot at the all time career runs and RBI records.

Barring injury, A-Rod has a great shot of getting 2,000 RBIs and 2,000 runs scored, an impressive feat more important than the homers.

[Edgartohof]

Oh-A.Rod
18-0--0
19-7--5
20-24--41
21-37--64
22-75--106
23-115--148
24-170--189
25-212--241
26-260--298
27-307--345
28-356--381
29-400--429
30-447--463
31-486--518!!!
32-534--??
33-585--??
34-634--??
35-667--??
36-716--??
37-766--??
38-805--??
39-838--??
40-868--??


So A-Rod ends the season with 518 HR!!! This gives him a 32 HR advantage over Oh at this point in his career!

[philkid3]

Barring injury, A-Rod has a great shot of getting 2,000 RBIs and 2,000 runs scored, an impressive feat more important than the homers.

I don't think either one of those things are more important, at least as far as indication how great A-Rod is. He has no control over how many times he gets batted in while he's on base or how many people are on base when he gets a hit. But he can somewhat control how often he hits the ball out of the park.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I just realized that A-Rod may be the all-time strikeout leader by the end of his career. He already has 1,524 Ks which is 39th all time. With just 91 Ks next season he'll be at #21. He is 1,073 Ks behind Reggie Jackson presently. He should be comfortably over 2,000 Ks within five seasons.

[Edgartohof]

Heck, when A-Rod is done, he could quite possibly be the all-time leader in just about EVERYTHING!

I mean if he stuck around long enough, he could even own the hits record (he'd have to stick around quite a while for that though).

I mean he could be leading in: R, HR , RBI, SO, TB, RC, XBH, and even games played if he sticks around long enough.

He may not get all of those, but the stands a good shot at least a few of them.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Ok, it's time for an Oh/A-Rod update.


Age Oh HRs A-Rod HRs
18 0 0
19 7 5
20 24 41
21 37 64
22 75 106
23 115 148
24 170 189
25 212 241
26 260 298
27 307 345
28 356 381
29 400 429
30 447 463
31 486 518
32 534 526
33 585 ??
34 634 ??
35 667 ??
36 716 ??
37 766 ??
38 805 ??
39 838 ??
40 868 ??

[sandlot]

Ok, it's time for an Oh/A-Rod update.


Age Oh HRs A-Rod HRs
18 0 0
19 7 5
20 24 41
21 37 64
22 75 106
23 115 148
24 170 189
25 212 241
26 260 298
27 307 345
28 356 381
29 400 429
30 447 463
31 486 518
32 534 526
33 585 ??
34 634 ??
35 667 ??
36 716 ??
37 766 ??
38 805 ??
39 838 ??
40 868 ??
Between the ages of 31 and 32 A-rod had only eight homeruns? Is that a running tally covering the season to date??

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Between the ages of 31 and 32 A-rod had only eight homeruns? Is that a running tally covering the season to date??

Yes, it's a running total. I expect A-Rod to hit about another 30 HRs in '08.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Yes, it's a running total. I expect A-Rod to hit about another 30 HRs in '08.

He'll need all the extra home runs he can get, since Oh hit 51 the next season, which is just nuts.

[Jermz]

This is really actually pretty amazing. I am not an A-Rod or Yankee fan in the least, but when you realize that he is only going to be 33 next month, and is already 15th on the all-time list...it's totally unreal. Just some of the names he has already passed include Ripken, Dawson, Yastrzemski, Winfield, Stargell, Musial, Gehrig, Murray, Ott, Banks, McCovey etc.

He should have no problem passing Mantle, Foxx & Schmidt this year, and by the time he is 35 he will have passed Reggie, Palmeiro & Killebrew.

I don't see any way (unless a serious injury forces him to never play again) that he could NOT beat Bonds' & Oh's records. This guy seriously has a shot at ending his career somewhere around 900.

[bob]

It really depends on when he starts declining. It could be in a few years, or he could be like Aaron or Oh and hit 40+ until he's 38-40.

[baseball junkie]

He should be the ultimate HR champion.:o

He should still be a Mariner! But 800? I always thought Junior Griffey would do that.

[Moses Fleetwood-Walker]

Good luck A-Rod!

[Honus Wagner Rules]

He'll need all the extra home runs he can get, since Oh hit 51 the next season, which is just nuts.

At age 37 Oh had a 50 HR season as well! :crazy

[SamtheBravesFan]

At age 37 Oh had a 50 HR season as well! :crazy

:crazy Boggles the mind how good he was.

[White Knight]

At age 37 Oh had a 50 HR season as well! :crazy

That's it? Bonds at 37 hit 73. :laugh

[Honus Wagner Rules]

That's it? Bonds at 37 hit 73. :laugh

Well Oh's team only played 130 games during his 50 HR 1977 season. That comes out to a 62 HR season over a 162 game season, closing the gap somewhat. :laugh

[Jermz]

It's pretty amusing to me that nobody really takes that 73* serious. I am also more impressed by Oh hitting 50 at age 37, than Bonds hitting 73*.

I wish 61 & 755 were still the marks to beat...and I'm a Giants fan...sad but true. Those #'s mean more to me.

[west coast orange and black]

mf-w: Good luck A-Rod!

should rodriguez be fortunate enough to break 756 bonds'll be there to personally congratulate him.

[Moses Fleetwood-Walker]

mf-w: Good luck A-Rod!

should rodriguez be fortunate enough to break 756 bonds'll be there to personally congratulate him.

Yup, Bonds has spoken nothing but praise for A-Rod and said he wants him to break the record.

[Edgartohof]

Age Oh HRs A-Rod HRs
18 0 0
19 7 5
20 24 41
21 37 64
22 75 106
23 115 148
24 170 189
25 212 241
26 260 298
27 307 345
28 356 381
29 400 429
30 447 464
31 486 518
32 534 532
33 585 ??
34 634 ??
35 667 ??
36 716 ??
37 766 ??
38 805 ??
39 838 ??
40 868 ??
[/QUOTE]

He was hurt a little by missing some playing time early this season, but he seems to be making up for it now. he is hitting around .440 this month, with 7 HR so far (including another one tonight).

Yet despite his missed playing time, he is STILL on pace to hit somewhere around 38 HR's!!! Which would equal out to about 44 over a full season! I mean, last season was his best offensive season to date, but this season, his OPS+ is nearly the same, if not a little better!

But still, he can't keep going on missing time if he wants to keep up with Oh's pace. Like it's been mentioned, Oh still had a couple 50 HR seasons late in his career!

[Edgartohof]

A-Rod 542 HR

Oh at same point: 534

Edge: A-Rod by 8 HR!!!

So A-Rod could have a 22+ HR advantage at this rate - and consider again that he missed a good bit of time earlier this season!

But Oh put up some MONSTER numbers late in his career, including 2 more 50+ HR seasons and 2 more with 49 HR! In fact, from age 30 on, Oh never hit less than 30 HR's, and that lowest total came at age 40!

That kinda makes you respect the guy that much more; when the best the game has to offer today has only an outside chance at closing in on this record!

[Solrac]

He should be the ultimate HR champion.:o

Key word there.
Can he stay healthy??

Griffey was also suppose to be the ultimate HR King. :(

[White Knight]

That would about late June 2009. A-Rod may hit 600 HRs before he turns 34. :bowdown:

It's now possible that he'll do it by the very end of next year. He has 542 HRs, and it is August 3rd, 2008. Let's say he winds up with 555 this year. 45 next year wouldn't be unlikely at all. He would have hit 45+ this year if he hadn't been on the DL.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Hey, does anyone know the outfield dimensions for the new Yankee Stadium?

[Mild Sauce]

I heard they're the exact same as the current Yankee Stadium.

[Solrac]

I heard they're the exact same as the current Yankee Stadium.

It's the same stadium only with new seating and VIP boxes but same dimension same everything else.

[Bench 5]

I think A-Rod will get to about 700-720 but I think that age is going to catch up to him and he will start missing a lot of games due to injuries as he hits his mid-30's. I would like to see him break the record someday but I think he will fall short. I've seen so many players over the years look like they were going to keep going for a few more years and then all of a sudden they lose it overnight. Mike Schmidt looked like a lock for 600 homers and he lost it quickly. I thought McGwire had a shot to take a run at Aaron after hitting 65 out in the 1999 season and he was out of baseball two years later. If Griffey was able to put together a finishing kick like Bonds, he could overtake him. But that's not going to happen.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I think A-Rod will get to about 700-720 but I think that age is going to catch up to him and he will start missing a lot of games due to injuries as he hits his mid-30's. I would like to see him break the record someday but I think he will fall short. I've seen so many players over the years look like they were going to keep going for a few more years and then all of a sudden they lose it overnight. Mike Schmidt looked like a lock for 600 homers and he lost it quickly. I thought McGwire had a shot to take a run at Aaron after hitting 65 out in the 1999 season and he was out of baseball two years later. If Griffey was able to put together a finishing kick like Bonds, he could overtake him. But that's not going to happen.

Though I agree with all your points we must look at every player on an individual basis. McGwire and Schmidt were never high BA hitters and they were much older when they hit their 500th HR. McGuire was almost four years older than A-Rod and Schmidt was over five years older. So they didn't have a large margin for error. The moment their BA dropped the end was near. Griffey is more like A-Rod but he had serious injury issues by his early 30s. A-Rod has been incredibly durable to this point in his career. He doesn't have any chronic injuries to deal with. Also, many are underestimating the incredible HR pace A-Rod has set so far in his career. He was the youngest to reach 500 by almost a full year. Here is how he compares to the rest great sluggers in terms of age when they hit their 500th HR. A-Rod has established a chance for well over 800 HRs.


Player Age @500th HR GAP from A-Rod
Alex Rodriguez 32 y 8 d -----------
Jimmie Foxx 32 y 336 d 328 d
Willie Mays 34 y 116 d 2 y 108 d
Sammy Sosa 34 y 143 d 2 y 135 d
Hank Aaron 34 y 160 d 2 y 152 d
Babe Ruth 34 y 186 d 2 y 178 d
Ken Griffey 34 y 212 d 2 y 204 d
Harmon Killebrew 35 y 42 d 3 y 36 d
Mickey Mantle 35 y 206 d 3 y 198 d
Mary McGwire 35 y 257 d 3 y 249 d
Eddie Matthews 35 y 274 d 3 y 266 d
Manny Ramirez 36 y 1 d 3 y 358 d
Frank Robinson 36 y 42 d 4 y 36 d
Mel Ott 36 y 152 d 4 y 144 d
Barry Bonds 36 y 267 d 4 y 259 d
Jim Thome 37 y 20 d 5 y 12 d
Mike Schmidt 37 y 203 d 5 y 195 d
Reggie Jackson 38 y 122 d 6 y 114 d
Rafael Palmeiro 38 y 229 d 6 y 221 d
Frank Thomas 39 y 32 d 7 y 24 d
Ernie Banks 39 y 101 d 7 y 93 d
Willie McCovey 40 y 171 d 8 y 163 d
Eddie Murray 40 y 195 d 8 y 187 d
Ted Williams 41 y 292 d 9 y 284 d

In terms of a career A-Rod is still somewhat young. He still have several peak seasons left in him. He still hits for power and hits for a pretty high average. I would get concerned if A-Rod was hitting like .280 and his power dropped. but that hasn't happened yet and I suspect it won't happen for many more years. He had a roughly 4 2/3 year edge on Bonds. By the time A-Rod is 36 y 267 days old (Bonds age when he hit his 500th HR) he could have 700+ HR already.

[White Knight]

Though I agree with all your points we must look at every player on an individual basis. McGwire and Schmidt were never high BA hitters and they were much older when they hit their 500th HR. McGuire was almost four years older than A-Rod and Schmidt was over five years older. So they didn't have a large margin for error. The moment their BA dropped the end was near. Griffey is more like A-Rod but he had serious injury issues by his early 30s. A-Rod has been incredibly durable to this point in his career. He doesn't have any chronic injuries to deal with. Also, many are underestimating the incredible HR pace A-Rod has set so far in his career. He was the youngest to reach 500 by almost a full year. Here is how he compares to the rest great sluggers in terms of age when they hit their 500th HR. A-Rod has established a chance for well over 800 HRs.


Player Age @500th HR GAP from A-Rod
Alex Rodriguez 32 y 8 d -----------
Jimmie Foxx 32 y 336 d 328 d
Willie Mays 34 y 116 d 2 y 108 d
Sammy Sosa 34 y 143 d 2 y 135 d
Hank Aaron 34 y 160 d 2 y 152 d
Babe Ruth 34 y 186 d 2 y 178 d
Ken Griffey 34 y 212 d 2 y 204 d
Harmon Killebrew 35 y 42 d 3 y 36 d
Mickey Mantle 35 y 206 d 3 y 198 d
Mary McGwire 35 y 257 d 3 y 249 d
Eddie Matthews 35 y 274 d 3 y 266 d
Manny Ramirez 36 y 1 d 3 y 358 d
Frank Robinson 36 y 42 d 4 y 36 d
Mel Ott 36 y 152 d 4 y 144 d
Barry Bonds 36 y 267 d 4 y 259 d
Jim Thome 37 y 20 d 5 y 12 d
Mike Schmidt 37 y 203 d 5 y 195 d
Reggie Jackson 38 y 122 d 6 y 114 d
Rafael Palmeiro 38 y 229 d 6 y 221 d
Frank Thomas 39 y 32 d 7 y 24 d
Ernie Banks 39 y 101 d 7 y 93 d
Willie McCovey 40 y 171 d 8 y 163 d
Eddie Murray 40 y 195 d 8 y 187 d
Ted Williams 41 y 292 d 9 y 284 d

In terms of a career A-Rod is still somewhat young. He still have several peak seasons left in him. He still hits for power and hits for a pretty high average. I would get concerned if A-Rod was hitting like .280 and his power dropped. but that hasn't happened yet and I suspect it won't happen for many more years. He had a roughly 4 2/3 year edge on Bonds. By the time A-Rod is 36 y 267 days old (Bonds age when he hit his 500th HR) he could have 700+ HR already.

He may have been the youngest to ever hit 500 HRs, but McGwire did it the fastest (fewest at-bats), and A-Rod wasn't even close.

[SHOELESSJOE3]

Yup, Bonds has spoken nothing but praise for A-Rod and said he wants him to break the record.


Do you think that will change the feelings of some who have a negative view of Barry and will change their opinion of him. So they will now see Barry an as Mr. nice guy. Nice PR move by you but what will it change, nothing.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

He may have been the youngest to ever hit 500 HRs, but McGwire did it the fastest (fewest at-bats), and A-Rod wasn't even close.

That's irrelevant. The key point is AGE. Also, McGwire drew many more walks than A-Rod does thus lowering his AB total. Anyway it doesn't matter that Mcgwire could hit 40+ HR is 450 AB while A-Rod may need 550. All that matters is that A-Rod can consistently hit 40+ HRs per season. A player only has so many years to play major league baseball. The age when a player reaches a milestone is key. And A-Rod has a HUGE advantage in that regard. Like I said by the time A-rod reaches that age that Bonds was when Bonds hit his 500th HR, A-Rod could have 700 HRs.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Do you think that will change the feelings of some who have a negative view of Barry and will change their opinion of him. So they will now see Barry an as Mr. nice guy. Nice PR move by you but what will it change, nothing.

That was your interpretation of MFW's post? :shrug:

[SHOELESSJOE3]

That was your interpretation of MFW's post? :shrug:

Yes, I go by past history, thats my take. The poster has a whole thread boosting Barry's image, you must have seen it. BTW I had no problem with him and that Barry thread, others do it for other players and I praised FLEETWOOD for all the work and all the facts about Barry, some I was not aware of, lots of work and a great job.

I don't want to drag this one out, I'm off the subject.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I calculated that A-Rod will be 36 years, 267 days old on April 20, 2012. I guess A-Rod could hit about~135 HRs between now and then. I give him 10 more HRs this season, 40 HR each in 2009-11 seasons, and five HRs in April 2012.

10+40+40+40+5=135

I think that's a conservative estimate. That would give A-Rod ~680 HRs.

[SHOELESSJOE3]

He may have been the youngest to ever hit 500 HRs, but McGwire did it the fastest (fewest at-bats), and A-Rod wasn't even close.

True but what does it mean here. It's kind of like saying a runner led the race at the half or three quarter mark but lost the race. All that matters is the finish line. Of course nothing is sure, AROD looks like he's on his way to hit the most but we never know what could take place down the line, injuries, missed games.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

True but what does it mean here. It's kind of like saying a runner led the race at the half or three quarter mark but lost the race. All that matters is the finish line. Of course nothing is sure, AROD looks like he's on his way to hit the most but we never know what could take place down the line, injuries, missed games.

This is very true. It's like a great miler reaching the 3/4 mile mark about 3 seconds ahead of world record pace. Can he finish off that last lap and smash the world record or will his legs fill up with lactic acid and fall of the pace?

[Moses Fleetwood-Walker]

Do you think that will change the feelings of some who have a negative view of Barry and will change their opinion of him. So they will now see Barry an as Mr. nice guy. Nice PR move by you but what will it change, nothing.

Dude your hatred for Barry Bonds is not healthy. Bonds genuinely likes & respects A-Rod and wishes him nothing but the best. Many of his haters could learn a thing or two about that.

[SHOELESSJOE3]

Dude your hatred for Barry Bonds is not healthy. Bonds genuinely likes & respects A-Rod and wishes him nothing but the best. Many of his haters could learn a thing or two about that.

Sorry, wrong on that one I don't hate Barry never did. It is possible to have a negative view of another and not hate them. I'm no different then some others who can be critical of another and yet hate does not enter.

[Edgartohof]

Age Oh HRs A-Rod HRs
18 0 0
19 7 5
20 24 41
21 37 64
22 75 106
23 115 148
24 170 189
25 212 241
26 260 298
27 307 345
28 356 381
29 400 429
30 447 464
31 486 518
32 534 546
33 585 ??
34 634 ??
35 667 ??
36 716 ??
37 766 ??
38 805 ??
39 838 ??
40 868 ??


So, A-Rod needs to average 40 HR/season for the next 8 years at this point (plus 2 more HR somewhere down the line).

8 * 40 = 320 + 2 + 546 = 868 HR

Of course, he has a good chance of hitting another 10+ HR this season, so that will take off a few for him later on.

Anything he does now will help his case. It will make it easier, seeing how Oh averaged nearly 42 HR/season from age 33 on!

Of course, A-Rod does not have to quit at age 40, he could possibly play longer...so who knows how far he could get.


Also, with A-Rod's 1st inning 3-Run HR today (his 546th of his career), he is just 2 HR behind Mike Schmidt who is 12th all-time!

Schmidt will likely be the last person Rodriguez passes on the HR list this season, unless he goes on a tear and knocks in another 18 HR to pass Reggie Jackson.

[Edgartohof]

With A-Rod's 31st HR of the season, he passes Mike Schmidt for sole possession of the #12 spot on the All-Time HR list!

Up next is another Yankee legend Reggie Jackson with 563 career HR

List of Yankee's Sluggers A-Rod has already passed:

Roger Maris
Mickey Mantle
Dave Winfield
Joe Dimaggio
Yogi Berra (hey, for a catcher he had power...)
And
Lou Gehrig

Next to come: Babe Ruth....714 HR!!! (should happen in about 4-5 season - by age 37)

[Brad Harris]

I looked at this yesterday. I approximated that at the end of this season, A-Rod will need 210 home runs to pass Bonds. Only 14 players in history have hit that many from age 33 on. It's certainly not impossible, but it's not particularly likely that Rodriguez is gonna continue to pelt 30 dingers a year for the next 8-10 years.

I'd love to see it. I think he's got a better chance of doing it than anyone else in the game, but it's still not an opinion I'd be willing to back up with my wallet.

[hellborn]

I looked at this yesterday. I approximated that at the end of this season, A-Rod will need 210 home runs to pass Bonds. Only 14 players in history have hit that many from age 33 on. It's certainly not impossible, but it's not particularly likely that Rodriguez is gonna continue to pelt 30 dingers a year for the next 8-10 years.

I'd love to see it. I think he's got a better chance of doing it than anyone else in the game, but it's still not an opinion I'd be willing to back up with my wallet.

Well, I look at it a bit differently. None of those 14 players matched ARod through age 32...obviously, somebody like Ruth could have, if not for having part of his career in the dead/dirty/spit ball era. ARod is leading the pack up to this age, and he seems like a good shot to keep his lead...he is always in shape, and hasn't packed on a lot of weight in early middle age like even a lot of athletes do. He manages to have tremendous power without having grown Frank Thomas biceps or Greg Luzinski thighs. You look at Foxx, who was a great athlete, tailing off early, but he was well known as a big drinker who didn't take care of himself (read "My Turn At Bat"). I guess if anything might hurt ARod, it might be womanizing...hasn't slowed him down yet, though.
Injury can strike anybody and tomorrow is not guaranteed for a single person on this earth, but I see ARod as being more likely to beat Bonds than not, at this point. 800, I say somewhere between 25-50%.

[SHOELESSJOE3]

I looked at this yesterday. I approximated that at the end of this season, A-Rod will need 210 home runs to pass Bonds. Only 14 players in history have hit that many from age 33 on. It's certainly not impossible, but it's not particularly likely that Rodriguez is gonna continue to pelt 30 dingers a year for the next 8-10 years.

I'd love to see it. I think he's got a better chance of doing it than anyone else in the game, but it's still not an opinion I'd be willing to back up with my wallet.

He may not have to hit 30 for 8 or 10 years. He would just have to average that many and I think he has a few more 40+ home run seasons and I wouldn't be shocked if he puts up a couple of 50 homer seasons before it's over.. Since 1998 he has hit 40 or more 5 times and 50 or more 3 times. I realize he will be in his middle to late 30s in a few years but I can still see some 40 and pehaps maybe one or two 50 homer seasons.

[SHOELESSJOE3]

Well, I look at it a bit differently. None of those 14 players matched ARod through age 32...obviously, somebody like Ruth could have, if not for having part of his career in the dead/dirty/spit ball era. ARod is leading the pack up to this age, and he seems like a good shot to keep his lead...he is always in shape, and hasn't packed on a lot of weight in early middle age like even a lot of athletes do. He manages to have tremendous power without having grown Frank Thomas biceps or Greg Luzinski thighs. You look at Foxx, who was a great athlete, tailing off early, but he was well known as a big drinker who didn't take care of himself (read "My Turn At Bat"). I guess if anything might hurt ARod, it might be womanizing...hasn't slowed him down yet, though.
Injury can strike anybody and tomorrow is not guaranteed for a single person on this earth, but I see ARod as being more likely to beat Bonds than not, at this point. 800, I say somewhere between 25-50%.

Speaking of Jimmie, your right looks like that drinking was a big part of his decline, thats putting it mildly. Looks like he dropped right off the table, fast.

At the time of this article he had 500 home runs and was 32 years old looked like a fair bet, he hit only 34 more homers before hanging them up.

[Brad Harris]

He may not have to hit 30 for 8 or 10 years. He would just have to average that many and I think he has a few more 40+ home run seasons and I wouldn't be shocked if he puts up a couple of 50 homer seasons before it's over.. Since 1998 he has hit 40 or more 5 times and 50 or more 3 times. I realize he will be in his middle to late 30s in a few years but I can still see some 40 and pehaps maybe one or two 50 homer seasons.
Prior to the PED era (1993-present), 40 HR in a single season had only been achieved by a player age 33 or older 23 times; only six times after the age of 35. You make a great point, which is why the next 2-3 seasons will be the most crucial in Rodriguez's pursuit of the record. If he can collect, say, 120+ home runs from 2009-2011, then he'll be sitting pretty in his "old age." ;)

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I looked at this yesterday. I approximated that at the end of this season, A-Rod will need 210 home runs to pass Bonds. Only 14 players in history have hit that many from age 33 on. It's certainly not impossible, but it's not particularly likely that Rodriguez is gonna continue to pelt 30 dingers a year for the next 8-10 years.
What seems to be missing from the discussion is A-Rod specifically. He has an intense off season training routine. He has an indoor batting cage in his home. After every season he takes about a month off and then goes to the University of Miami to practice with the Miami baseball team. He is an incredible athlete and is in incredible shape for a 33 year old. He's been healthy and durable for most of his career. I figure he has 3-4 more prime seasons left in him where he can go for 45-50 HRs. Then perhaps a gentle decline where maybe his hitting 30-35 HR, then 25-30 HRs. As I stated in a previous post, in April 2012 A-Rod will be the same age that Barry Bonds was when Barry hit his 500th HR. A-Rod could have 680-700 HRs by then. Here are some old players just off the top of my head that had some great HR seasons at the end of their careers.


HRs Name Age
44 Andres Galagara 37
41 Babe Ruth 37
40 Hank Aaron 39
40 Darell Evans 38
39 Frank Thomas 38
39 Moises Alou 37
38 Ted Williams 38
37 Edgar Martinez 37
35 Mike Schmidt 37
35 Dave Kingman 37
34 Darell Evans 40
34 Babe Ruth 38
32 Ellis Burks 37


If you look at the list of players you see many that had a subtantial injury history. Yet, even playing a reduced amount of games, they put up great HR seasons at an advanced age. Is it likely that A-Rod will be 35-40 HRs at age 37-39? Given good health I think it's highly likely.

[White Knight]

There's an outside chance he'll even get 40 HRs this year. He's at 32 now, and it's September 4th. Eight in about a month is certainly possible. If he does that, he'll be at 558 for his career. That could mean he gets his 600th by next September, providing he hits 42 or more for the 2009 season.

[Brad Harris]

...I see ARod as being more likely to beat Bonds than not, at this point. 800, I say somewhere between 25-50%.
Wouldn't "more likely than not" mean he has a greater than 50 percent chance? :laugh

[bob]

Wouldn't "more likely than not" mean he has a greater than 50 percent chance? :laugh
Thats what he said. Likely to beat Bonds, and about 25-50% chance of getting to 800. Meaning he may end up between 763 and 799 homers...

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Ok, now that the 2008 season is over it's time for an update.


Age Oh A-Rod Diff
18 0 0 0
19 7 5 -2
20 24 41 +17
21 37 64 +27
22 75 106 +31
23 115 148 +33
24 170 189 +19
25 212 241 +29
26 260 298 +38
27 307 345 +38
28 356 381 +25
29 400 429 +29
30 447 463 +16
31 486 518 +34
32 534 553 +19
33 585 ?? ??
34 634 ?? ??
35 667 ?? ??
36 716 ?? ??
37 766 ?? ??
38 805 ?? ??
39 838 ?? ??
40 868 ?? ??

[bob]

I would say Arod is still most likely to end up somewhere between Bonds and Oh (closer to Bonds). This has been a solid season, but he'll want a few more 40+ HR seasons in the next 5 years to give him an easier decline phase. I would hate to see him end up a below average player just in the lineup to sell tickets and chase the record.

[White Knight]

I don't know, for some reason I can never view A-Rod up with the greatest HR hitters of all-time, whether he surpasses Bonds or not. Yeah, I know he was out for a while and still hit 35 HR's, but his AB/HR ratio was 14.6, and his career AB/HR ratio is 14.2, not among the elite by any means. His best ratio was last year, when it was 10.8. Outstanding, you say? Consider that Mark McGwire averaged 10.6 over his ENTIRE CAREER! Now that is truely amazing.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I don't know, for some reason I can never view A-Rod up with the greatest HR hitters of all-time, whether he surpasses Bonds or not. Yeah, I know he was out for a while and still hit 35 HR's, but his AB/HR ratio was 14.6, and his career AB/HR ratio is 14.2, not among the elite by any means. His best ratio was last year, when it was 10.8. Outstanding, you say? Consider that Mark McGwire averaged 10.6 over his ENTIRE CAREER! Now that is truely amazing.
Do you consider Hank Aaron (16.38 AB/HR) and Willie Mays (16.48 AB/HR) two of the greatest HR hitters of all time? ;)

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

Anyone know what he is mathematically going to hit assuming he gets at least 9,500 at-bats or whatever?

[The Splendid Splinter]

Anyone know what he is mathematically going to hit assuming he gets at least 9,500 at-bats or whatever?

Well... lets say he hit a HR every 15 ABs... He has 7860 ABs so far and 553 HRs... so with 1640 ABs for 9500 he'll hit around 110 HRs.


at 9500 ABs- he'll have around 660... give or take a few. Just guessing here and barring injury and everything.

[White Knight]

Do you consider Hank Aaron (16.38 AB/HR) and Willie Mays (16.48 AB/HR) two of the greatest HR hitters of all time? ;)

No, I don't. If Mac had as many at-bats as Aaron, he would have hit...Ahh, you're lucky I suck at math but it would be at least 1,000. :)

[AstrosFan]

And if he had as many as Rose it would be 1,324. Wow.

[Paulypal]

I don't know, for some reason I can never view A-Rod up with the greatest HR hitters of all-time, whether he surpasses Bonds or not. Yeah, I know he was out for a while and still hit 35 HR's, but his AB/HR ratio was 14.6, and his career AB/HR ratio is 14.2, not among the elite by any means. His best ratio was last year, when it was 10.8. Outstanding, you say? Consider that Mark McGwire averaged 10.6 over his ENTIRE CAREER! Now that is truely amazing.

I dont know how you can say that at all? It is really really off base.

ARod is 7th in MLB history in HR% with anyone with 5000 PA's. Eighth if you use 2000 PA's.

[White Knight]

I dont know how you can say that at all? It is really really off base.

ARod is 7th in MLB history in HR% with anyone with 5000 PA's. Eighth if you use 2000 PA's.

It's not off base at all. I stand by that Mac was a way better HR hitter than A-Rod. Not better but way better. I'm not off base at all, the facts are there.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

It's not off base at all. I stand by that Mac was a way better HR hitter than A-Rod. Not better but way better. I'm not off base at all, the facts are there.

Ok, that's fine. Given that McGwire dew a large number of walks, this lowering his official AB totals, and A-Rod doesn't it doesn't really matter to me. If we take PA/HR the gap narrows somewhat (13.1 to 16.4). A-Rod is the far better overall ballplayer for sure. Anyway, this thread isn't about Big Mac. It's about A-Rod's quest for 763, 800, and perhaps even 869 HRs.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Can we just stick to A-Rod and not have to introduce Mr. One and a Half Tricks Limping Pony every time home runs are even mentioned? I prefer somebody who could actually do something on the field and on the basepaths. McGwire was a better home run hitter. Baseball is far, far more than home runs. Why do we keep doing this?

[White Knight]

Ok, that's fine. Given that McGwire dew a large number of walks, this lowering his official AB totals, and A-Rod doesn't it doesn't really matter to me. If we take PA/HR the gap narrows somewhat (13.1 to 16.4). A-Rod is the far better overall ballplayer for sure. Anyway, this thread isn't about Big Mac. It's about A-Rod's quest for 763, 800, and perhaps even 869 HRs.

I agree that A-Rod is better overall. I was just purely talking as a HR hitter.

[Paulypal]

Mac was a better pure HR hitter. I have no problem with that, but how can you say Arod isnt a top the HR list. Just because he isnt #1 on the HR% list?

Question for you.....where do you put Mays and Aaron who were 33rd and 34th on the the list where Arod is 6th (correction from my earlier post)?

[Seattle1]

I've been thinking about how many HRs will A-Rod hit in his career....The question I've asking myself can A-Rod hit 800 HRs? 850 HRs? 900 HRs?

Ahhh who cares now. Seriously, I really don't care how many he hits. He is just another roid-head. I knew it all along. Look how big he got.

:(

[d32123]

Ahhh who cares now. Seriously, I really don't care how many he hits. He is just another roid-head. I knew it all along. Look how big he got.

:(

Still rooting for 1000 HR over here!

[west coast orange and black]

"look at how much bigger he got."
"look at how much smaller he got."

dude.

[White Knight]

Ahhh who cares now. Seriously, I really don't care how many he hits. He is just another roid-head. I knew it all along. Look how big he got.

:(

I can't tell if you're joking or serious.

[Seattle1]

I can't tell if you're joking or serious.

100% serious. I really couldn't give a crap how many HRs he ends up with. Just like with Bonds. Tainted records.

[CTaka]

"look at how much bigger he got."
"look at how much smaller he got."

dude.

I agree. I don't care about whether a player got bigger heads or smaller 'nads. Primobolan is supposed to improve strength while maintaining lean muscle with minimal bulk development or other side effects. It is the positive steroid test that makes any record ARod achieves tainted in my view, not whether he got bigger, more acne, smaller, erectile disfunction, etc.

[rockin500]

100% serious. I really couldn't give a crap how many HRs he ends up with. Just like with Bonds. Tainted records.
speak for yourself. Bonds is still the home run leader, whether you like it or not. And if Arod manages to last long enough to break the mark, then hes the home run champ.

[White Knight]

100% serious. I really couldn't give a crap how many HRs he ends up with. Just like with Bonds. Tainted records.

Let me first say that I haven't been on this site for about two weeks, and haven't even read about anything baseball related in that time. Did I miss something in those two weeks? Was he named in any report, or did he fail a drug test? Did anyone say he used? Even Canseco only says he "probably used" and isn't 100% certain.

[bob]

100% serious. I really couldn't give a crap how many HRs he ends up with. Just like with Bonds. Tainted records.
So what makes Canseco's claim different from SI's claim? I presume you were fine with Arod before this new report was out? Its still just alligation and we'll have to wait and see what happens. Until we know more im sitting on the fence.

[Seattle1]

So what makes Canseco's claim different from SI's claim? I presume you were fine with Arod before this new report was out? Its still just alligation and we'll have to wait and see what happens. Until we know more im sitting on the fence.

No I wasn't really fine with A-Rod before this. I have been very suspicious about him for several years now. There was this goofy clip on Letterman a couple years ago where A-Rod and Biff Henderson were shirtless and you could plainly see how bulky his physique was compared to when he was a skinny little kid on the Mariners.

[CTaka]

Let me first say that I haven't been on this site for about two weeks, and haven't even read about anything baseball related in that time. Did I miss something in those two weeks? Was he named in any report, or did he fail a drug test? Did anyone say he used? Even Canseco only says he "probably used" and isn't 100% certain.

I think its fair to say that neither you nor I know anything conclusively unless we were there to watch him shoot up. All we know is the story by Sports Illustrated that ARod failed a test in 2003. According to the story, he tested positive for testosterone and Primobolan, an anabolic steroid that is designed to improve strength while maintaining lean muscle mass without bulking up or other side effects. Testosterone is legal if taken with a prescription while Primobolan is not an approved prescription within the U.S. The story states that ARod was told about the positive test in 2003.

So no I do not know for 100% certain. All I know is SI's story, unless you have further information.

[Seattle1]

Bonds is still the home run leader, whether you like it or not. And if Arod manages to last long enough to break the mark, then hes the home run champ.

Only with one of these:

*

Like the one that's branded on his "record" ball.

;)

[kiluckzle]

..........

[Mattingly]

100% serious. I really couldn't give a crap how many HRs he ends up with. Just like with Bonds. Tainted records.
I'm not too sure that an accusation, even if very public, is equal to the truth.

I really hope that he did not in fact use these, but realistically, it may be easier to list those who didn't use than those who did at one point or the next.

[Brad Harris]

I hope he does it.

No asterisks.

[CTaka]

I hope he does it.

No asterisks.

I'm pretty sure there will not be an asterisk since MLB has stated they will not put an asterisk by Bonds' record. But I think it will certainy be a "tainted" record by the general public unless further information comes out to show that his positive test was mistaken. I suspect any record set by someone with a positive steroid test, be it Bonds, ARod, Clemens, or anyone else, will be viewed as tainted. But MLB will not put an asterisk by their records.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Ok, now that the 2009 season is over it's time for an update. With A-Rod's injured 2009 season he only hit 30 HRs. Sadaharu Oh had a 51 HR season in his age 33 season. For the first time since A-Rod was 19 years old he has fallen behind Oh's pace. :o


Age Oh A-Rod Diff
18 0 0 0
19 7 5 -2
20 24 41 +17
21 37 64 +27
22 75 106 +31
23 115 148 +33
24 170 189 +19
25 212 241 +29
26 260 298 +38
27 307 345 +38
28 356 381 +25
29 400 429 +29
30 447 463 +16
31 486 518 +34
32 534 553 +19
33 585 583 -2
34 634 ?? ??
35 667 ?? ??
36 716 ?? ??
37 766 ?? ??
38 805 ?? ??
39 838 ?? ??
40 868 ?? ??

[ol' aches and pains]

Ok, now that the 2009 season is over it's time for an update. With A-Rod's injured 2009 season he only hit 30 HRs. Sadaharu Oh had a 51 HR season in his age 33 season. For the first time since A-Rod was 19 years old he has fallen behind Oh's pace. :o

But still only trails him by 2 HR. As the ALDS just ended has shown, A-Rod appears to be back on track. I think he may do it.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

But still only trails him by 2 HR. As the ALDS just ended has shown, A-Rod appears to be back on track. I think he may do it.
Oh sure. I don't think A-Rod has entered his decline phase yet. If completely healthy in 2010 I fully expect A-Rod to hit at least 45 HR. I think 800 HRs is within A-Rod's grasp. I'm not so sure about 868 HRs though. Sadaharu Oh went home run crazy in his mid-to late 30's.

[ol' aches and pains]

Oh sure. I don't think A-Rod has entered his decline phase yet. If completely healthy in 2010 I fully expect A-Rod to hit at least 45 HR. I think 800 HRs is within A-Rod's grasp. I'm not so sure about 868 HRs though. Sadaharu Oh went home run crazy in his mid-to late 30's.

Yeah, so did Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds. :shrug:

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Yeah, so did Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds. :shrug:

Yes and we all know why.:o Besides McGwire didn't go crazy in his late 30's. Mac's last season was at age 37 (hitting just .187), the same age Bonds started his late age home run barrage.

[White Knight]

Yes and we all know why.:o Besides McGwire didn't go crazy in his late 30's. Mac's last season was at age 37 (hitting just .187), the same age Bonds started his late age home run barrage.

He may have been the best .187 hitter in ML history. His AB/HR ratio was still off the charts that year, even better than A-Rod's career best.

[bob]

He may have been the best .187 hitter in ML history. His AB/HR ratio was still off the charts that year, even better than A-Rod's career best.
True, Not many .187 hitters can claim to have a .492 slugging percentage.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

He may have been the best .187 hitter in ML history. His AB/HR ratio was still off the charts that year, even better than A-Rod's career best.

Ok? And? This thread is about A-Rod, not Mark McGwire. By age 37 all Mac could do is hit HR and draw walks and nothing else. Mac broke down at a relatively young age for a superstar. Mac simply didn't have the body or the all-around skills to play into his 40's. So all this talk about if "Mac could have had 12,000 PA's he'd hit over 1,000 HRs!" is utter nonsense.

[White Knight]

Ok? And? This thread is about A-Rod, not Mark McGwire. By age 37 all Mac could do is hit HR and draw walks and nothing else. Mac broke down at a relatively young age for a superstar. Mac simply didn't have the body or the all-around skills to play into his 40's. So all this talk about if "Mac could have had 12,000 PA's he'd hit over 1,000 HRs!" is utter nonsense.

I'd answer you in detail, but like you said, this thread is about A-Rod and is getting off-topic enough.

Back on topic: I see A-Rod winding up with roughly 800 HR's. He has a decent chance. Maybe 40% now.

[History Of Baseball Fan]

I said about 5 or so years ago that A-Rod will end up with the most HRs ever.
Hes just a steroid user who will beat another steroid user (Bonds) so being the new "home run king" won't be a big deal. I'm just mad that they both passed Hank and the Babe.

[doctor_gogol]

I'm sorry the Twins lost last night, but being at the game, it was kind of cool to see A-Rod hit a home run. That's a first for me.

Do you really think he'll hit 800? He's 34 and seems to be declining a little. What do you think he has left? 5-6 years? He's at 583 now. Another 217 HRs in 6 years? That is 36 a year. Every year. At his age it's not likely. Especially when he'll have to do it clean.

I'll be surprised if he beats Aaron. He'll probably pass Ruth though.

[bob]

I said about 5 or so years ago that A-Rod will end up with the most HRs ever.
Hes just a steroid user who will beat another steroid user (Bonds) so being the new "home run king" won't be a big deal. I'm just mad that they both passed Hank and the Babe.
Just to play Devils advocate for a second, but Hank admitted in his book that he took amphetamines (IIRC) which were banned at the time.

[White Knight]

I said about 5 or so years ago that A-Rod will end up with the most HRs ever.
Hes just a steroid user who will beat another steroid user (Bonds) so being the new "home run king" won't be a big deal. I'm just mad that they both passed Hank and the Babe.

If A-Rod is telling the truth, he used the cheap stuff and got it with his cousin. Bonds supposidly got the best stuff from one of the best personal trainers in the country. I can believe him, since it really didn't affect him much.

[White Knight]

I'm sorry the Twins lost last night, but being at the game, it was kind of cool to see A-Rod hit a home run. That's a first for me.

Do you really think he'll hit 800? He's 34 and seems to be declining a little. What do you think he has left? 5-6 years? He's at 583 now. Another 217 HRs in 6 years? That is 36 a year. Every year. At his age it's not likely. Especially when he'll have to do it clean.

I'll be surprised if he beats Aaron. He'll probably pass Ruth though.

He is signed until 42 I believe, so that would be another 8 seasons. 217 HRs in 8 years would be roughly 27 per year. Sounds high, but if he hits 40 the next two seasons, then he just needs to hit 22 a year for six years. Certainly possible.

As for him declining, he had a hip operation, and in all probability wasn't given enough time to heal. If healthy, let's see what he can do next year. 40+? He (apparently) did 54 HRs clean in 2007.