Roy Oswalt: HoF Peak

[Aqua]

I recognize that at this juncture, it's impossible to fully assess Roy Oswalt's HoF chances, given that he's only in his sixth year. Given how good his seasons thus far have been, however, I don't think it's unreasonable to ask the question: if Oswalt's career to this point represented his five-year peak, for instance, would it be a peak that compares favorably with the peak years of other HoF pitchers, or the ever-nebulous "HoF Standard?"

Obviously, his decline phase, or whatever remainder of a peak he has, could look like anything (or nothing, if, say, he ripped his rotator cuff up during his next start), and that would change his HoF chances. But does his peak thus far stack up well enough?

[cup2006sensrule]

Clearly this type of peak compares favorably with many HOF pitchers. In fact if he keeps this up for another couple of years say 3 and then has arm trouble and struggles for a couple of years and then retires he could make it on the basis of this "peak". Like Dizzy Dean, Sandy Koufax he could get in with a shorter career.

I don't know if this peak is as great as some but hey if Roger Clemens had retired in 1993 he would have been a sure fire Hall of Famer. With 2 good partial seasons at the start and 7 ecellent seasons (3 Cy's close in a few more seasons) then a so-so season.

If Santana can keep up his great seasons for a 3 or 4 more years and wins 1 more Cy Young after this year he isn't that far off Clemens first 10 years. Of course Santana actually has to keep up his supreme dominance for a few more seasons to be a HOFer.

I think Santana won't get into the Hall as an "accumulator" but for dominance.

Of course injuries can hurt you. Roy Halladay has a Cy Young but in the last 3 years he has missed significant time to injuries. If not he could have had 3 more great years challenging for the Cy Young. And earlier in his career he missed time when he could have had his first great years. Halladay isn't Santana but without the injuries he has suffered he would have a pretty amazing 5 year Resume almost surely top 3 or 4 in Cy Voting 4 of the last 5 years and maybe winning another 1 or 2 Cy's outright.

[cup2006sensrule]

Crap I thought you were talking about Santana!!!!! Sorry.

Still same applies as to Santana nad Halladay. Oswalt has been top 5 in Cy voting 4 of his first 5 seasons. And just as good as his other years in 2003 when he missed time.

Oswalt doesn't wow you like Santana does but he has 2 20 win years while Mussina doesn't have one. Oswalt has a decent shot at the Hall if he has a good 13 or 14 year career. Or if he has a couple of really WOW years soon and wins a Cy or 2.

[mac195]

Oswalt is well on his way to a HOF career, but I don't agree that he has been good enough already to qualify after the minimum 10 seasons. There are no spectacular years from him yet, like a Clemens '86 or '90, or a Koufax '63-'66, and no CY finishes above 3rd.

[candy curveball cummings]

Oswalt is well on his way to a HOF career, but I don't agree that he has been good enough already to qualify after the minimum 10 seasons. There are no spectacular years from him yet, like a Clemens '86 or '90, or a Koufax '63-'66, and no CY finishes above 3rd.

Through 6 seasons, Oswalt's number are almost identical to Clemens' numbers through 6 seasons. I agree with the argument that Oswalt hasn't had a "spectacular" year, but he has had several great ones.

[Fuzzy Bear]

He's not Koufax, but if he had a few more good years, then suddenly blew his arm out, he'd get into the HOF if he fell short of 200 wins.

He'd have to have two more 20 win seasons, IMO, to do that. If he didn't, he might end up like Ron Guidry; a worthy pick who's not going to make it.