Phil Seibel

[PhilWings24]

Okay, i was just looking at this guy's numbers, and if he isn't on the opening day roster next year i'm gonna kick a wall.

he's had all sorts of injury problems, so we should probably be ready and waiting to replace him, but i'd take him over hansen by a longshot for next year's closer. i'm confident hansen will be able to fill that role in time, but for just next year, i'd take seibel.

he's 28 and a minor leaguer, so people don't get excited about him as the future of the franchise (and probably shouldnt), but this year in the minors:

80 innings, 83 strikeouts, 15 walks, 1.24 ERA.

20 of those innings at greenville (A), 45 at portland (AA), 15 at pawtucket (AAA)

would you guys take him over hansen for next year, too?

[Erik Bedard]

Let's wait and see. I'm going to say no, because he's unproven. The Orioles have a guy like him, Jim Hoey (except Hoey is 23 and started at low-A, not high-A), and he's been horrible. If he does well in spring training, I don't know about closer, but setup isn't too absurd.

[PhilWings24]

he's proven more than hansen has, though

[EvanAparra]

Let's wait and see. I'm going to say no, because he's unproven. The Orioles have a guy like him, Jim Hoey (except Hoey is 23 and started at low-A, not high-A), and he's been horrible. If he does well in spring training, I don't know about closer, but setup isn't too absurd.

The question is if we would take him over Hansen. And its not like Hansen is proven either. Seibel should definately be on the roster.

[PhilWings24]

hopefully the sox will trade for a pretty dependable closer...the only guys in our minors i think of as untouchable are Ellsbury and Buchholz, and i would really prefer we hold on to masterson, even though he is just in rookie ball. he did unbelieavably, and i have somehow already become a particular fan of his.

[Mike D.]

80 innings, 83 strikeouts, 15 walks, 1.24 ERA.

20 of those innings at greenville (A), 45 at portland (AA), 15 at pawtucket (AAA)


The numbers are good, but look at the competition. A 28 year old pitching in A and AA ball better put up those kind of numbers if he wants to have any chance of moving up.

I'd say see how he is in the spring, and if he looks good, give him a shot at making the team, but I imagine a full year of AAA is needed to really tell us if he's the real thing or not.

[PhilWings24]

The numbers are good, but look at the competition. A 28 year old pitching in A and AA ball better put up those kind of numbers if he wants to have any chance of moving up.

I'd say see how he is in the spring, and if he looks good, give him a shot at making the team, but I imagine a full year of AAA is needed to really tell us if he's the real thing or not.

this, to me, is why people don't get excited about him.

if he was doing this as a 22 year old, we'd be saying he could be a rookie of the year next year. but the fact he's 28 years old doesn't make what he's done any less impressive, it just means his future isn't all that impressive.

for 2007, its a different story for the years beyond, it makes no difference whether its a 28 year old or a 19 year old doing it.

which is why, to me, putting him in AAA for another year would be ill-advised. you can do that with a 22 year old to let him mature and improve. but mister seibel isn't gonna get any better. its now or never. and his numbers are better than hansen's.

so i get what you're saying, but saying "look at the competition" is every bit as valid for him as it is for hansen or ellsbury or any other minor leaguer, at least when we limit the discussion to 2007. the fact seibel's 28 doesn't mean his numbers are any less telling than they would be if he was 22, it just means this is likely as good as he's gonna get, whereas a 22 year old doing this would seem to have a great future ahead of him.

so basically what i'm saying is i think another year in AAA would be a waste; he's not gonna get any better. and he's better right now than hansen is right now. so for 2007, seibel'd be the better option. (also, he's an extremely succesful minor league player, he's just has arm trouble his whole career, so we should so i'd try and bring him up while he's at least a little bit healthy)

[Jager]

The question is if we would take him over Hansen. And its not like Hansen is proven either. Seibel should definately be on the roster.


I'm just wondering why he's not up right now. We're out of it, so we're just trying out some young players anyways, why not have him pitch for us and see how he does? You said he had injury problems, Is he injured now?

[PhilWings24]

He could be, but i don't think so.

I actually really don't know, but he pitched 80 innings this year, so i wouldn't expect him to be. That would explain his absence though.

[Mike D.]

Comparing the numbers of a 28 year old pitching mostly in A and AA to a 21-22 year old pitching in AAA and the majors still doesn't make any sense to me.

The Sox can't be too high on the guy, considering the people they've brought up or acquired in front of him.

[EvanAparra]

Comparing the numbers of a 28 year old pitching mostly in A and AA to a 21-22 year old pitching in AAA and the majors still doesn't make any sense to me.

The Sox can't be too high on the guy, considering the people they've brought up or acquired in front of him.

Look at his stats, they should be high on him.

[Jager]

He should at least get a shot.

[Mike D.]

I'm not saying he doesn't have potential, or that he shouldn't get a shot. But claiming he's "better than Hansen" based on 80 innings, most of it in the low minors, is crazy. I think he should get an invite to camp and a chance to make the roster. Do I think he's a candiate for the closers job? No.

[Mike D.]

BTW...where did you find his stats across the different levels? A look at his secondary numbers would provide further insight into his potential.

[PhilWings24]

I'm not saying he doesn't have potential, or that he shouldn't get a shot. But claiming he's "better than Hansen" based on 80 innings, most of it in the low minors, is crazy. I think he should get an invite to camp and a chance to make the roster. Do I think he's a candiate for the closers job? No.

i think you're misunderstanding me entirely. i AM saying he doesn't have potential. but for one year, wouldn't you rather take the guy who's been doing best lately, and has the better track record?

we think hansen is the closer of the future. i am on that boat myself. but hansen still needs to improve. hansen, with time and proper care, will be able to put numbers like those up by the time he's 24 probably. but hansen, in the minor leagues, has a worse era and a much, MUCH worse k:bb ratio than seibel.

i think you're getting "better player" and "better option for 2007" confused. if i had a choice between keeping seibel and keeping hansen+taking on 4 million dollars in salary, i'd take the latter. however, if i have my pick for one year of a guy with 47 innings, 38 strikeouts, 23 walks in the minors and has gotten knocked around so far in the majors, or a guy with 80 IP, 83 strikeouts, and 15 walks, to me its a no brainer. now when you tell me the second guy is 28 years old, a Rule V pickup, hasn't stayed healthy for a full year yet in his career, and is pitching in the minors and that the first guy is 22 years old and is hitting his first real rough patch, it becomes obvious the first guy is the much more valuable assett.

but really, when you keep in mind we are limiting the discussion to JUST next year, i think its pretty clear seibel is the better option.

[PhilWings24]

BTW...where did you find his stats across the different levels? A look at his secondary numbers would provide further insight into his potential.

milb.com

and assuming by secondaries you mean k/9, bb/9, hr/9 i can tell you seibel kills hansen in everything except hr/9, which hansen kills him in. hansen's secondaries aren't all that impressive even.

and also, as i touched on in my last post, in this case i am discussing PURELY 2007. people are talking about hansen as a potential closer next year, and i'm saying that seibel seems much more prepared at this point to face major league hitting. not that we should label seibel our closer of the future or even our closer of 07, just that hansen to me is the closer of whenever he's the best option for that given year-whenever a better option arises, and to me seibel's the best option for next year (or at least a better one than hansen).

n make sure to check out my last post if you still aren't sure why i'm saying that.

[Mike D.]

I'll conceed that it is possible that Seibel could have a better year in the majors in 2007 than Hansen, but judging by the level he pitched in, it's not a given. If he put up those numbers all at AAA, I'd say there'd be a good chance he'd have a good year in the majors in 2007. As it is, I'll say that he should get an invite to spring training and shot to make the team.

[Jager]

i think you're misunderstanding me entirely. i AM saying he doesn't have potential. but for one year, wouldn't you rather take the guy who's been doing best lately, and has the better track record?

we think hansen is the closer of the future. i am on that boat myself. but hansen still needs to improve. hansen, with time and proper care, will be able to put numbers like those up by the time he's 24 probably. but hansen, in the minor leagues, has a worse era and a much, MUCH worse k:bb ratio than seibel.

i think you're getting "better player" and "better option for 2007" confused. if i had a choice between keeping seibel and keeping hansen+taking on 4 million dollars in salary, i'd take the latter. however, if i have my pick for one year of a guy with 47 innings, 38 strikeouts, 23 walks in the minors and has gotten knocked around so far in the majors, or a guy with 80 IP, 83 strikeouts, and 15 walks, to me its a no brainer. now when you tell me the second guy is 28 years old, a Rule V pickup, hasn't stayed healthy for a full year yet in his career, and is pitching in the minors and that the first guy is 22 years old and is hitting his first real rough patch, it becomes obvious the first guy is the much more valuable assett.

but really, when you keep in mind we are limiting the discussion to JUST next year, i think its pretty clear seibel is the better option.

Are you seriously arguing for Seibel to close for the MLB Red Sox next season??? You'd have to be out of your mind to think that. He should get a shot to make the team, but to throw him into the closer's role, when he pitched most of the year at A and AA ball is absurd. Don't get crazy and start thinking that A, AA, or even AAA is anything like the majors. Quite a few of our rookies are finding that out now.

[PhilWings24]

Are you seriously arguing for Seibel to close for the MLB Red Sox next season??? You'd have to be out of your mind to think that. He should get a shot to make the team, but to throw him into the closer's role, when he pitched most of the year at A and AA ball is absurd. Don't get crazy and start thinking that A, AA, or even AAA is anything like the majors. Quite a few of our rookies are finding that out now.

lol no...im having a difficult time describing what i'm trying to say here.

i'm saying he should get the job over hansen. and only for 2007. i'd prefer to see neither of them get it (i'd like to see the sox acquire someone or even use foulke instead of either one). if hansen comes up and dominates next year, fine, give it to him.

but here's what i'm saying:

no one knows who the sox closer is for 07.
there aren't many great options out there.
so i keep hearing ESPN Panelists, Journalists, and even regular sox fans saying "at worst, it'll be craig hansen."
and i am saying that it should be more like "at worst, it'll be phil seibel."

just for 07.

i think they're both terrible options at this point, and i think the red sox will work pretty hard to try and fix it. however i'm saying that the way things are this very moment, if i had to choose between hansen and seibel, i'd take hansen.

i'm not saying EITHER of them SHOULD get the job, simply that i'd give it to seibel on opening day 2007 instead of hansen on opening day 2007.