What's the value of the pitcher in the game?

[Zagi-CRO]

Please, could you tell me what's the value / aproxima. / of the starting pitcher in the baseball game?
I intend to value the impact a starting pitcher has on the game.

For example, 10%, 20%...etc...

[Mariano_Rivera]

Please, could you tell me what's the value / aproxima. / of the starting pitcher in the baseball game?
I intend to value the impact a starting pitcher has on the game.

For example, 10%, 20%...etc...
I believe a pitcher is 42% responsbile for Preventing runs and therefore since Preventing Runs is 50% of baseball you can infer that the pitcher controls 21% of a baseball game outcome. Of course in the NL pitchers bat which could make a small change and when you say SP you have to factor in the fact that pitchers rarely throw complete games but the pitcher controls 21% of the game by preventing runs.

[Zagi-CRO]

I believe a pitcher is 42% responsbile for Preventing runs and therefore since Preventing Runs is 50% of baseball you can infer that the pitcher controls 21% of a baseball game outcome. Of course in the NL pitchers bat which could make a small change and when you say SP you have to factor in the fact that pitchers rarely throw complete games but the pitcher controls 21% of the game by preventing runs.

Ok,good! Thanks Rickey.

For instance...Florida vs.Milwaukee today...

Josh Johnson will start for the Marlins. He has 11-6 with a 2.90 ERA.
Ben Sheets (4-5, 5.02 ERA) will start for the Brewers.

Is it means that Marlins will win because Johnson is better pitcher then Sheets? / probability for Marlin's win is 21% or more ??/

What do you think about it? :)

[Mariano_Rivera]

Ok,good! Thanks Rickey.

For instance...Florida vs.Milwaukee today...

Josh Johnson will start for the Marlins. He has 11-6 with a 2.90 ERA.
Ben Sheets (4-5, 5.02 ERA) will start for the Brewers.

Is it means that Marlins will win because Johnson is better pitcher then Sheets? / probability for Marlin's win is 21% or more ??/

What do you think about it? :)
Well like I said the pitcher has a greater impact in the NL because they hit. No, because it's not absolute. The Marlins have a better chance of winning this game then 21% (if they have the same defense and offense) because of the difference between them. If Johnson's ERA is 4.90 Johnson is still better but less so so the chances of winning is less than 21%. Pitchers control 21% of the game but that doesn`t mean that if you have the better pitcher and the same offense and defense as the other team you have an added 21% chance of winning. I`m not into Leverage and Win/Run Expectancy charts/matrix but somebody else might be able to explain what that teams chances of winning the game is.

[LouGehrig]

This would be amazing if it weren't amazing.

Why not go to site that lists the odds on games, sites that have real money involved, in order to see how the starting pitcher affects the odds, and therefore, the chances those who put their money up front think each team has of winning the game.

Comparing Ben Sheets to Josh Johnson cannot be done effectively because so many factors exist.

Sheets was and may once again be one of baseball's better pitchers, but he has been hurt and that has affected him greatly. Johnson is inexperienced and may eventually become a fine pitcher.

While Johnson has better numbers going into the game, if Sheets were to pitch the way he can, and no one knows if he will today, next start, next season, or ever, Miami will not score many runs against him. But if he is still not Ben Sheets, it is a different story.

In Sheets' case, the numbers are meaningless since at any time, or maybe at no time, he can return to the form that he once exhibited.

Back to the odds. Look at the odds when the Mets pitch Pedro compared to when the Mets pitch Trachsael. The pitcher is the most important factor in any game. The fact that starting pitchers only go six or seven innings has affected that fact to some extent.

[Tango Tiger]

Your original line of thinking is wrong. Don't think about things like "what % is...". It'll lead you down the wrong road.

You should think about: "how much do he improve my chances of winning?"

[rluzinski]

Is it means that Marlins will win because Johnson is better pitcher then Sheets?

Let's not get carried away, now. :)

Sheets has been battling injuries the last couple of years but he's done well when he has pitched. He's had a FIP of 3.26 and 2.28 the last 2 years, so his raw "stuff" seems to be fine. What's killed him this year is his BABIP and LOB%. I wouldn't consider either representative of some deficiency in Sheet's pitching skills. He only has 57 IP so it's not suprising some of those numbers are at extremes.

[Zagi-CRO]

Why not go to site that lists the odds on games, sites that have real money involved, in order to see how the starting pitcher affects the odds, and therefore, the chances those who put their money up front think each team has of winning the game.

*** Yes, I can do it but I have my own matrix with 6-7 parameters /to predict future results/


Comparing Ben Sheets to Josh Johnson cannot be done effectively because so many factors exist.
*** Ok, I agree and because of that existing more then one parameters.
Let say, a pitcher has ponder 0,25 and other 0.75 belongs to ....? Ok?


Back to the odds. Look at the odds when the Mets pitch Pedro compared to when the Mets pitch Trachsael.
*** Exactly!

The pitcher is the most important factor in any game. The fact that starting pitchers only go six or seven innings has affected that fact to some extent.
*** I agree.

[Zagi-CRO]

Your original line of thinking is wrong. Don't think about things like "what % is...". It'll lead you down the wrong road.

You should think about: "how much do he improve my chances of winning?"

Ok, let say, the good pitcher will improve team's chances for win cca 20%...

[Zagi-CRO]

Is it means that Marlins will win because Johnson is better pitcher then Sheets?

Let's not get carried away, now. :)

Sheets has been battling injuries the last couple of years but he's done well when he has pitched. He's had a FIP of 3.26 and 2.28 the last 2 years, so his raw "stuff" seems to be fine. What's killed him this year is his BABIP and LOB%. I wouldn't consider either representative of some deficiency in Sheet's pitching skills. He only has 57 IP so it's not suprising some of those numbers are at extremes.

But it's true, Josh Johnson is now statisticaly better pitcher... who cared of yesterday results/2005./? And, Florida won... :)

[rluzinski]

But it's true, Josh Johnson is now statisticaly better pitcher...

Since you want to evaluate the starting pitchers with regard to their affect on the win probability, your aim shouldn't be to find who's been statistically better over a given period but rather who currently is the better pitcher right now. Simply comparing each pitcher's ERA and record for the year isn't going to answer that question with any acceptable level of accuracy. You are using the wrong metrics and not enough data.

And, Florida won...


IP H R ER BB SO
B Sheets 7.0 6 3 1 1 6
J Johnson 7.2 8 2 2 0 7And it had nothing to do with Johnson out-pitching Sheets, IMO.

but he has been hurt and that has affected him greatly.

The only affect I believe it's had is to limit the number of starts he's been able to make the last couple of years. He's still throwing his fastball between 93-95 MPH. He still has excellent command and an A+ curve.

[shoe686276]

In a hypothetical game, played tonight, Reds vs. Red Sox. Starting pitchers are Elizardo Ramirez and Curt Schilling.

Statistically, Ramirez is worse (I think most would concur), so, accordingly, one would think that the Red Sox have a better chance to win. However, the Red Sox have not been in a playing the same since the Yanks series, their corner OFers and starting C are injured and not playing, and the "soul" of the team is laid up in the hospital with medical problems unrelated to baseball. To think that this is not only on the mind of Schilling, but all of the other players, affecting the way they pitch and play is not possible.

One would say the Reds have been on a losing streak of their own, which is true. Their positions players are healthy, just not hitting. Schilling would probably decrease their effectiveness even more.

I realize that these are not measurable stats (just like a Cuban player not hearing from his family in Cuba when he expects or having Anna Benson as a wife), and that these are professionals doing a job they've been doing for years, but they all affect the way the players perform.

While I do believe the P has a plurality of the effect on the outcome of a game, I also believe the amount of how much he improves my chances of winning, can be independent of stats, which makes it nearly impossible to measure.

[Zagi-CRO]

In a hypothetical game, played tonight, Reds vs. Red Sox. Starting pitchers are Elizardo Ramirez and Curt Schilling.

Statistically, Ramirez is worse (I think most would concur), so, accordingly, one would think that the Red Sox have a better chance to win.

++++ Yes, we are talking about probability for a winning. I am sure that
Curt SCH. is much better and he has edge.

However, the Red Sox have not been in a playing the same since the Yanks series, their corner OFers and starting C are injured and not playing, and the "soul" of the team is laid up in the hospital with medical problems unrelated to baseball. To think that this is not only on the mind of Schilling, but all of the other players, affecting the way they pitch and play is not possible.

++++ ok, that's unmeasurable moments, we must to neglect that moments in a such mathematics approach


While I do believe the P has a plurality of the effect on the outcome of a game, I also believe the amount of how much he improves my chances of winning, can be independent of stats, which makes it nearly impossible to measure.

I intend to find a simple mathematical model... thank you for your comments

[538280]

I've always thought pitching was probably about 35% of the total game. Obviously, run scoring and run prevention have to be of equal weight. That much is obvious. Hitting is certainly and beyond any doubt the biggest driving force in scoring runs. Because of this, it will receive the highest weight of any game phase. I gave it 47.5%, giving the other 2.5% to baserunning. Run prevention is a bit trickier. The general consensus seems to me to be about two thirds of run prevention can be credited to the pitchers, one third to the fielders. This may or may not be true, I'm not sure if anyone can know FOR SURE, but to me it seems to probably be a likely explanation. The pitcher should certainly have more impact than the fielders because he ultimately controls the pitch, which controls the entire start of trying to prevent runs. This would mean, going to 100%, pitching would be worth 35% and fielding 15%. So the four "phases" get these percentages:

Hitting: 47.5%
Pitching: 35%
Fielding: 15%
Baserunning: 2.5%

[SABR Matt]

I really really don't think pitching is 70% of defense...that's a conceit that's been passed from old-schooler to old-schooler for eons and it's not supported by a preponderance of the evidence.

it's more like 60-40 IMHO.

[Tango Tiger]

More or less, the true standard deviation, per 9 IP, is around 0.50 runs for a pitcher.

For a fielder, the true standard deviation, per BIP, is around .020. So, for a team of fielders, it'll come in to around .20-.25 per 9 IP. (Long calculation omitted here, but detailed in the links I previously posted.) That works out to almost .20 runs per game.

.50/(.50+.20)=70%

No "IMHO" required. This can be completely answered with the data. (Of course, a guy with lots of K relies on his fielders less, so that's important to know as well.)

[Zagi-CRO]

More or less, the true standard deviation, per 9 IP, is around 0.50 runs for a pitcher.

For a fielder, the true standard deviation, per BIP, is around .020. So, for a team of fielders, it'll come in to around .20-.25 per 9 IP. (Long calculation omitted here, but detailed in the links I previously posted.) That works out to almost .20 runs per game.

.50/(.50+.20)=70%

No "IMHO" required. This can be completely answered with the data. (Of course, a guy with lots of K relies on his fielders less, so that's important to know as well.)

Mr.Tango, have you actual pitchers list, like that:

Player name; Innings Pitched; League ERA; Pitching Runs ??

Why I can't do anything in Excell with stats numbers from Internet ?

[Tango Tiger]

You can get it from the Lahman database at www.baseball1.com