Brain Giles Hof ?

[Goooooo]

Will he get in? should he?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

No, and no.

[jalbright]

Given his age (35 in January 2006) and current set of accomplishments, he'll need unusual durability/retention of skills to really even start to make a decent case for himself.

Jim Albright

[cbenson5]

He has very good percentage numbers. A .410 On Base Percentage is impressive. However, he will probably have to play into his 40's to get his counting numbers up to a Hall of Fame level. He needs at least 5 more All Star caliber seasons to have any chance. I have to say it is extremely unlikely.

[Skin & Bones]

Very underrated player. Right now has a career just as valuable as Vlad's. Doubt he'll get in though, due to his lack of counting statistics.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Not a chance.

[538280]

Arguably the most underrated player in baseball over the last two years, like Skin & Bones said his career to this point has been about as valuable as Vlad's. Seeing how he seems to have lost his power this year, though, I don't know if he'll be deserving, becuase of a short career but a great player in his short time.

Sultan, haven't we talked about him before? I thought I convinced you he was really good?

Here's a link to a post I made on him:

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=539893&postcount=1

[Senor Octobre]

agree with you here steal, i dig brian giles as a player.... yeah he's had a sub par year this year but he is a fairly underrated player. Everyone talks about his lack of power but petco is a graveyard. look at the BBs. I thik he'll end his career with around 330 homers, well over 1000 rbi and a pretty good obp & ops+.... probably 1800-1900 hits. Underrated player... yeah not HOF material but a pretty good...

[Fuzzy Bear]

Giles is a super-underrated player, but he's clearly in the decline phase of his career. I would argue that he's been a better player than Jason Giambi, but few would proabably agree.

Part of Giles' value is that he played CF for most of his career, and that adds to his defensive value.

Giles' BA dropped under .300, and his power is slipping now. He didn't get in a full season of MLB play until age 26, so he lost at least FOUR key years to build his career. Had Giles (A) come up earlier and (B) played CF his entire career, he would be in better shape for the HOF. He was a great player for a while, but the while wasn't long enough for a HOF career, in all likelihood.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Sultan, haven't we talked about him before? I thought I convinced you he was really good?

Here's a link to a post I made on him:
http://www.baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=539893&postcount=1

Thanks for the link Chris, I might take a look, but Jesus, where's your ego at youngster....? Trust me, I know baseball inside and out from playing and studying the game. I've watched Giles play a TON. I know when I see a great player and when I see someone who is pretty good in several areas. And no, I don't value walk-driven OBP as much as you and others do, especially in THIS era. What happens when he swings the bat means much more to me. I will not mention my opinion on his steroid use.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Arguably the most underrated player in baseball over the last two years, like Skin & Bones said his career to this point has been about as valuable as Vlad's. Seeing how he seems to have lost his power this year, though, I don't know if he'll be deserving, becuase of a short career but a great player in his short time.

Sultan, haven't we talked about him before? I thought I convinced you he was really good?

Here's a link to a post I made on him:

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=539893&postcount=1

I think Giles is past prime; his performance is sinking, and it's not all park-driven.

He WAS a great player for a while; that really needs to be said. I agree with what is said in the link to a point. Giles was a very underrated player, but he really hasn't had a HOF career, and he doesn't look like he's going to do anything to push him further in Cooperstown's direction.

A more realistic discussion of Giles would be to name some players he has been better than that people don't ordinarily view Giles as superior to. I've already mentioned Giambi.

[leecemark]

--David Ortiz.

[538280]

A more realistic discussion of Giles would be to name some players he has been better than that people don't ordinarily view Giles as superior to. I've already mentioned Giambi.

Ichiro, arguably Vlad Guerrero

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Using what stats? OBP and WS?

Certainly not going by talent. :noidea

[Fuzzy Bear]

Giles is kind of like a modern day Ross Youngs; a guy whose HOF credentials would have been more respected if he had lived and had a longer career. Giles was/is probably better than Youngs was, but he, too (for different reasons) will not have a particularly long career.

I wonder how Giles stacks up to Larry Doby and Minnie Minoso.

[538280]

Using what stats? OBP and WS?

Certainly not going by talent. :noidea

Actually just about every metric out there. Talent is NOT a good way to evaluate a player. Focus on accomplishment and what the player does for his team. Raw talent and style should have nothing to do with player evaluation. Read that post I linked also.

[538280]

Giles is kind of like a modern day Ross Youngs; a guy whose HOF credentials would have been more respected if he had lived and had a longer career. Giles was/is probably better than Youngs was, but he, too (for different reasons) will not have a particularly long career.

I wonder how Giles stacks up to Larry Doby and Minnie Minoso.

If you're just going on their major league career, Giles is a long way ahead of Minoso and probably about even with Doby. Minoso played about 500 less games, but was much less an impact hitter than Giles was (is?). We're talking about a 16 point OPS+ gap here, Minoso's caree high isn't that far from Giles' career mark, and they were playing the same position. Not to mention the quality of the leagues, Minoso and Doby were two of very few black/hispanic players in the AL at that time.

I don't see the parallel between Giles and Youngs either. Giles has already played more games, and was MUCH more of an impact hitter.

[TheK]

According to the Win Shares method Giles has 249 WS so far in his career. Depending on what he can do over the rest of his career he should come close to breaking 300, and considering his late start he may receive outside consideration. What doesn't help is the fact that he played in Pittsburgh during his prime.

[bluejaysfan4ever]

200+ hrs isn't a lot. Plus his career avg is not over .300. So hell no.

[PhilWings24]

well in my MLB 2k6, he broke the single season walks record and turned into a stud.

so i'm fully confident that will happen in real life. until it does, though, i don't see how he stands a shot

[KCGHOST]

His quality numbers are superb, but his counting numbers are woefully lacking, particularly in the HR area. He is going to have a tough time overcome what we expect from a corner OFer. His only real hope is to get 3000 hits and that is a virtually impossible task considering how late his career got started and his willingness to take a walk.

[bluezebra]

Will he get in? should he?

Brain Giles Hof ?

Yes. As the most intelligent player in the history of MLB.

Bob

[jalbright]

Brain Giles Hof ?

Yes. As the most intelligent player in the history of MLB.

Bob
So we're judging by IQ rather than win shares, RBIs, batting average, ERA, wins and the like? Sorry, no sale on that basis.

Jim Albright

[Cougar]

He's playing on the typo in the title.

[ChrisLDuncan]

Is he a hall of famer, if not what does he have to do to get in?

[tearforamariner]

Is he a hall of famer, if not what does he have to do to get in?

Brian Giles has been a very underrated player through out his career. His offensive numbers are up there with some of the best hitters from this generation. However, he is not a Hall of Famer. Giles does not look or feel like a Hall of Famer. He has not reached any important milestones and as he has already started to significantly decline, I seriously doubt he will.

With the perception that surrounds Giles, he would need to reach either 3000 hits or 500 home runs. He would just have to do it. No major awards, only 2 all star appearances. He was a decent fielder, but even your precious FRAA shows him at below average (-11 for his career). Seeing's how he is just half way there to both of the previously mentioned milestones, I seriously doubt this 36 year old ballplayer has any shot at the hall.

[jalbright]

Here's how far Giles is from minimal HOF levels in the areas I look at:

3-4 more all star appearances
600 or more career hits if he raises his career average over .300
240 homers
move up 600 places in MVP award shares
move up 440 spots in black ink
move up 330 spots in gray ink
move up 40 spots in HOF standards
amass 50 more career win shares

Even with his age, it's certainly possible he'll make the last two. However, he's very unlikely to make any of the others, which means he has to do a lot more than just get over the bar on those last two. I'm thinking 100-120 more career win shares might get him close. At his age, I doubt it will happen.

Jim Albright

[Fuzzy Bear]

Had Brian Giles been given a regular job at age 23, he'd be a HOF candidate. Instead, he didn't stick in the show until age 25, and had racked up a grand total of 857 ABs in the bigs before he became a regular for the first time at age 28.

Giles' problem is the same as Minnie Minoso's; he has the back end of a HOFers career, but he's missing 4-5 critical years (at least) at the front end of his career. Had Giles played regularly for 5 more seasons at the front end of his career, his lifetime BA might still be over .300, and he'd have about a 30 percent chance at 3,000 hits. Instead, he sat on the bench behind Belle, Lofton, Ramirez through 1996, getting a chance at half time play in 1996 and 1997, but not a regular slot until 1998. He was the kid, the rookie, and a team that won 2 pennants in 3 years is always going to be skittish about giving a player a full-time shot for the first time (wisely or unwisely).

How do I say it? Giles has been a great player who hasn't had a great career. His career was cut short at the front end, by and large, by matters out of his control. Giles appears to be in decline now, but he might be able to reverse a little of that. It would certainly help if he can keep his lifetime OBP over .400, and he MIGHT be able to do that. It would help if he can play to age 40 full time; that would give his career some bulk. One would be hard put to vote in Giles while Will Clark and Don Mattingly remain outside.

Still, Giles has been a great player. Personally, I think he's been greater than Jason Giambi, not that Giambi's going to the HOF. But his career won't be long enough to get in, short of a Carlton Fisk-ish miracle of halting the aging process. I don't see Giles playing regularly in the major leagues for more than the next 2 seasons.

[digglahhh]

Something else that is going to be a problem for him is that, although it coincides with a move to Petco, his power arc may arise suspicion amongst the voters in terms of how it is timed.

I'm not accusing him of anything- just pointing out a conclusion that some may jump to.

[nerfan]

I'll list why Giles has a good shot at the HOF

1) OPS+ of 145, good for 62nd all time (tied with Delgado and Chipper Jones, ahead of Reggie Jackson)
2) Giles has played in pitcher's parks his last four years of his career
3) Giles averages 100 RBI per 162 games
4) Giles on-base percentage is 42nd all time, and 10th among active players.
5) Giles has a highish RC/27/

Why Giles is not going to be in the HOF

1) Career started too late, is going to end WAY too early.

[LouGehrig]

Is he a hall of famer, if not what does he have to do to get in?

Change his name to Rogers Hornsby.

[digglahhh]

Just to throw this out there. To be consistent, anybody who even borderline supports Giles will probably have to consider Bobby Abreu a slam dunk when he's done.

[rsuriyop]

Giles looks very much like Ken Williams. Both had become starters rather late in their career and were very good sluggers/OBP machines for a brief time. But if Williams can't get inducted, then I don't see how Giles could possibly sneak in, unless he can somehow manage to jumpstart his career.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Just to throw this out there. To be consistent, anybody who even borderline supports Giles will probably have to consider Bobby Abreu a slam dunk when he's done.

I think Giles was better at his peak. But, yes, when the final stats are in the book, this will probably be true.

[brett]

Larry Walker had over 1600 more plate appearances, a 140 OPS+ was one of the best pure base runners of his time and won 7 gold glove, and was probably the best defensive right fielder of his era and played well at centerfield at times.

Giles still has a ways to go. A 140 OPS+ with 8000 plate appearances should be almost automatic. 7000 PAs and probably not.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Larry Walker had over 1600 more plate appearances, a 140 OPS+ was one of the best pure base runners of his time and won 7 gold glove, and was probably the best defensive right fielder of his era and played well at centerfield at times.

Giles still has a ways to go. A 140 OPS+ with 8000 plate appearances should be almost automatic. 7000 PAs and probably not.

I'm loath to rate Walker ahead of Giles due to the Coors Field factor. Without Coors, Walker would not have 2,000 hits, would not have a lifetime BA over .300, and would not have an OBP over .400. He would not have slugged over .500. Check his splits; check his home/road stats in his best years. They are Coors-driven to a point where they can't be ignored.

[ChrisLDuncan]

So if he finishes his career with an OBP of over .400 I'd say he'd be a HoFer.

[KCGHOST]

Giles has been a fine player, but is not going to have enough of a career to get in unless you opt for just peak value. Even there I think he is lacking.

Also, the BBWAA has no idea who he is.

[Rose4theHall]

Its an understatement to say Giles moving to SD has hurt his career. If he stays in Pittsburgh or goes to a more hitter/media friendly park his career would have continued the surge from 2003 onwards, his power numbers wouldnt have dropped and he likely wouldnt have had his terrible season last year.

Giles is an interesting case though, he absolutely needs to play until hes 40+, staying healthy, playing 150+ games and keeping his lifetime OPS+ at 142 or better the whole time. If he does that, then he has a case for the HOF, its a Dick Allen style case for the Vets committee but a case nonetheless.

[Cowtipper]

These can be combined:

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=48989&highlight=Giles

[jalbright]

Threads merged

[Brad Harris]

Better player than Johnny Damon, Richie Sexson or Garret Anderson.

[Bennybosox]

I can't believe there is so much discussion/ argument as to weather Brian Giles is a HOF'er. NO WAY!

I don't even care to see the stats to back up the arguement--- If Dave Parker, Dale Murphy Don Mattingly, Joe Carter, Alan Tramell, Andre Dawson and Dwight Evans aren't in than there is NO chance that B Giles gets in.
In fact, if he plays even five more years at his current level I say the max % of votes he ever gets is 18-25%--- MAX!

[PVNICK]

He came into the big leagues with a lot of promise, but alas like many of the Mets of the era between Seaver and Gooden he never panned out. I'm surprised he got a thread.

[Bennybosox]

His career has taken a dramatic turn since he stopped uisng PED's anyway. Its diffuclt to reinvent yourself as a top of the order/ OBP guy from a middle of the order power/ run producing type and accomplish the milestones necessary to be considered HOF worthy

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Giles is a lot like Will Clark: a great rate stats guy who won't put up the counting numbers necessary to be a serious HOF candidate. That being said, barring a strong resurgence by Giles, I don't think he'll be as good of a candidate as Clark. I can't support Giles.

[Domenic]

His career has taken a dramatic turn since he stopped uisng PED's anyway.

How can you look at his numbers and assume that he used performance enhancing drugs?

The drop in Giles' home run numbers coincided with him hitting his mid-thirties and moving to one of the most extreme pitcher's parks in Major League Baseball. His progression looks fairly normal to me, in fact.

[Captain Cold Nose]

He came into the big leagues with a lot of promise, but alas like many of the Mets of the era between Seaver and Gooden he never panned out. I'm surprised he got a thread.

It's the moustache.

[BigRon]

I'll list why Giles has a good shot at the HOF

1) OPS+ of 145, good for 62nd all time (tied with Delgado and Chipper Jones, ahead of Reggie Jackson)
2) Giles has played in pitcher's parks his last four years of his career
3) Giles averages 100 RBI per 162 games
4) Giles on-base percentage is 42nd all time, and 10th among active players.
5) Giles has a highish RC/27/

Why Giles is not going to be in the HOF

1) Career started too late, is going to end WAY too early.

Of course, you've got to remember that most BBWA members STILL don't pay a lot of attention to OPS, OPS+, RC/27, OBA, home-road splits, etc. Some are starting to move that way, but I think it's still a minority. Ten or 15 years from now, things may be different- maybe.

Fuzzy Bear summed Giles up nicely. He was a very good player, who got started too late and who moved to a terrible park for power hitters just as he started to near his decline stage.

Had he become a regular 3- 4 years earlier and/or stayed in a more friendly/neutral environment, he might have had a chance- not a great chance, but a chance.

As it is, he has zero possibility of becoming a HOFer unless, like Lazarus, he arises and approximates Bonds' 01-02-03-04 seasons. Ain't gonna happen.

[Bennybosox]

How can you look at his numbers and assume that he used performance enhancing drugs?

The drop in Giles' home run numbers coincided with him hitting his mid-thirties and moving to one of the most extreme pitcher's parks in Major League Baseball. His progression looks fairly normal to me, in fact.

The unfortunate part of this is: How can you NOT make the assumption that he used PED's? Oh sure, He moved to a cavernous and pitcher friendly park, and obviously he got older, but until we see the other 103 names on that list from 2003-04 he (like all the others) is guilty until proven innocent. Is it right? I don't want to think that way, but everytime a players name comes out like Manny or A-rod I become more jaded and the blind eye we turned suddenly starts to see things a little more clearly.

Look, it's not like Giles slowly transitioned into this player-- it literally happened overnight. The power didn't slowly erode, it completely disappeared. Sure, you can blame PetCo, but the home/ road splits are practically identical. Look at the timeline-- his peak years were at the height of the "steroid era"

[brett]

Giles' home run peak year have me suspicious.

Matt (SABR) has him as the '99 MVP though his actual finish was 19th.

I'd want to see him with about 9000 plate appearances at his rates.

Did play CF for 303 games.

[Brad Harris]

It's the moustache.

It is huge compared to when he was 19. You've got a point.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Still, Giles has been a great player. Personally, I think he's been greater than Jason Giambi

I was with you until I read that. Brian Giles has been greater than Jason Giambi??? Giambi has better rate stats, much better counting stats, a higher peak, and compares favorably to Giles sabermetrically, sabermetrics being the one ace Giles has up his sleeve. You've got credibility in my book, so please provide some sort of explanation as to how Giles has been "greater" than Jason Giambi.

[Brad Harris]

Let's just say that, like Jason Bay after him, I was grateful when Pittsburgh got rid of their best player.

[brett]

I think Giles has had a career comparable to that of Medwick, who I think is a legit hall of famer (or Klein who I'm not sure about). I don't think he's quite matched Larry Walker though who is not in.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I was with you until I read that. Brian Giles has been greater than Jason Giambi??? Giambi has better rate stats, much better counting stats, a higher peak, and compares favorably to Giles sabermetrically, sabermetrics being the one ace Giles has up his sleeve. You've got credibility in my book, so please provide some sort of explanation as to how Giles has been "greater" than Jason Giambi.

Perhaps that's a bit of hyperbole on my part. My post was made a while ago, so it may have been truer at the time I posted it than it is now.

Giles is behind Giambi, offensively, but not by that much. Giles has posted a .679 OWP for his career, while Giambi is at .699. Both are off to slow starts, so the winner in "who's better" might be determined by how each guy finishes this year out.

Giambi's slight offensive advantage (A) isn't that great, and (B) is offset by the other advantages Giles brings. Giles brings much more defensive value to the equation; indeed, he even played CF early in his career. Giles' counting totals appear to give Giambi a huge advantage, but this really doesn't happen, because of Giles' advantages in speed and baserunning, which manifests itself in a big increase over Giambi in career totals for doubles, triples, and steals. Despite having a slightly longer career, and a huge HR advantage, Giambi is only 20 runs ahead for a career total, compared to Giles; indeed, despite fewer HRs, Giles inches out Giambi, 99 to 98 in runs scored per 162 games.

I'll back off a bit from the statement that Giles is "greater" than Giambi. I believe that their careers have been of surprisingly equal value, and I believe that Giles, in reality, was the better player. If Giambi's career has had more value, it has been due to circumstances beyond Giles' control.

Both of these guys were born in January, 1971. The difference is that in 1995, Mark McGwire was traded to the Cards, opening up the regular 1B job for Giambi. There was no such opening for Giles with the Cleveland Indians; the Indian OF had Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton, and Manny Ramirez ahead of him. Giles got his break in 1998, but he was only a 3/4 time regular at most, as the Indians had David Justice DHing and playing the OF somewhat. Giles was an instant star, indeed, an instant SUPERSTAR in Pittsburgh, when he was traded there in 1999, but he was then 28 years old.

Was Giles ready prior to age 28? His minor league record certainly indicates this. Giles tore up the Eastern League at age 22; he played well enough to where one could have easily concluded that he could have skipped AAA and gone right on to the majors at age 23. Instead, Giles would go on to play 334 AAA games, an unheard of experience for a guy who was clearly ready for a MLB job at age 24, at the latest.

If you compare Giles' minor league record to Giambi's through age 23, there's no way you would rank Giambi ahead of Giles as a prospect. Giambi played in a AAA league where the league average BA was around .385, while the AAA league Giles played in hit .260. Giambi started out in the minors as a third baseman, but it was pretty clear that he wasn't going to play that position in the big leagues. Giambi's 1993 season at AA Huntsville was unimpressive; he was shifted to 1B, but did not blossom with the bat. Unlike the Indians, however, the A's kept pushing Giambi upward, all the way to the bigs. Giambi was, throughout the developmental process, the inferior player to Giles, but Giambi received superior opportunities at regular big league play. Had Giles been given a regular job with the A's in 1995, he'd have been a bigger star. Had Giambi not been truly given a regular job until he was traded to the Bucs at age 28, there's no question that he'd be even more anonymous than Giles is now.

[Cougar]

I think Giles has had a career comparable to that of Medwick, who I think is a legit hall of famer (or Klein who I'm not sure about). I don't think he's quite matched Larry Walker though who is not in.

Um, yeah, ok...when was it that Giles won a triple crown? When exactly did he lead the league in anything, ever? (OK, walks, one season...whoopie.)

Medwick's black ink & gray ink: 41, 226
Giles' black ink & gray ink: 2, 57

Giles couldn't carry Medwick's gym bag.

[Mike Hoban]

Brian Giles has not posted Hall of Fame numbers through 2008. Here are some of the players that the CAWS Career Gauge has him grouped with. The first number is career win shares, the second is core value (win shares in his ten best seasons) and the third is his CAWS score (280 needed by Giles for HOF numbers).

Jack Clark 316 247 264
Keith Hernandez 311 248 264
Minnie Minoso 283 258 264
Bernie Williams 311 248 264
Dwight Evans 347 234 262
Fred McGriff 326 240 262
Joe Torre 315 244 262
Lou Whitaker 351 232 262
Andre Dawson 340 234 261
Jim Edmonds 293 250 261
Brian Giles 286 252 261
Norm Cash 315 241 260

You will note that Giles' core value of 252 is better than all here except Minoso. And a core value of 250 or better means that he deserves a serious look. But he would need 364 career win shares with that 252 to reach the 280 benchmark.

Can he do that? Probably not.

[brett]

Um, yeah, ok...when was it that Giles won a triple crown? When exactly did he lead the league in anything, ever? (OK, walks, one season...whoopie.)

Medwick's black ink & gray ink: 41, 226
Giles' black ink & gray ink: 2, 57

Giles couldn't carry Medwick's gym bag.

He lead in some total value measurements in '99 like PCA wins.

Plus black ink and grey ink don't work for comparing players across eras. Deeper leagues (and larger) have more guys contributing value so its harder for one guy to lead.

Plus guys with big walk totals have a hard time leading the league in other stats.

Giles has played about as long as Medwick and has produced at a rate a little greater above league averages.

I would not put Medwick in my top 100 though, and he might not make my HOF based on value. I give him some points for historical importance.

[Cougar]

He lead in some total value measurements in '99 like PCA wins.

Plus black ink and grey ink don't work for comparing players across eras. Deeper leagues (and larger) have more guys contributing value so its harder for one guy to lead.

Plus guys with big walk totals have a hard time leading the league in other stats.

Giles has played about as long as Medwick and has produced at a rate a little greater above league averages.

I would not put Medwick in my top 100 though, and he might not make my HOF based on value. I give him some points for historical importance.

I'm not sure I'd chalk up that magnitude of Ink difference to a bigger league and a higher walk rate.

It narrows the gap from the Grand Canyon to the Snake River Canyon, I suppose.

[brett]

I'm not sure I'd chalk up that magnitude of Ink difference to a bigger league and a higher walk rate.

It narrows the gap from the Grand Canyon to the Snake River Canyon, I suppose.


I am pretty sure black and gray ink don't use OB% or Slugging%.

Consider this.

1999: Slg% behind Walker, McGwire, Sosa, and Jones
2000: OB% behind only Bonds and Sheffield and Helton
2002: Behind only Bonds in BOTH OB% and Slg% take out Bonds and he leads in BOTH which I would put on par with a triple crown.
2003 Behind only Bonds, Helton and Pujols in OB%
2005 Behind only Helton and Pujols in OB%

So if you take out probable roiders, and Coors boosted hitters, he would
have the following finishes:
OB%: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2
Slg: 1, 2

I'd at least count a second place finish on par with a league leadership from an 8 team league, so we have an equivalent of 7 major league leaderships relative to an 8 team league.

[Bennybosox]

I have no idea how we can spend this amount of time talking about Brian Giles getting into the Hall of Fame. The only way he gets into the HOF is if he buys a ticket to tour the museum. NO CHANCE. He'll drop off the ballot within 3 years of eligiblity due to lack of votes.

[Bennybosox]

So if you take out probably roiders, and Coors boosted hitters, he would
have the following finishes:
OB%: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2
Slg: 1, 2

Ummm... I think you have to include Brian Giles in the list of "probably roiders"

[Cowtipper]

So if you take out probably roiders, and Coors boosted hitters, he would
have the following finishes:
OB%: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2
Slg: 1, 2

Ummm... I think you have to include Brian Giles in the list of "probably roiders"
Maybe he was just good.

[Cougar]

I have no idea how we can spend this amount of time talking about Brian Giles getting into the Hall of Fame. The only way he gets into the HOF is if he buys a ticket to tour the museum. NO CHANCE. He'll drop off the ballot within 3 years of eligiblity due to lack of votes.

I'd be surprised if he even got 5% once.

So if you take out probably roiders, and Coors boosted hitters, he would
have the following finishes:
OB%: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2
Slg: 1, 2

Ummm... I think you have to include Brian Giles in the list of "probably roiders"

He fits the profile in just about every way: abrupt increases and decreases in power, correlating with the epidemic phase of PEDs and the implementation of testing; history of chronic, nagging injuries; odd personal behavior (problems with common law wife).

I don't usually do this, but, if I had to guess, yeah, Giles was 'roiding.

This is a classic case of the guy who's got such a rep for being underrated than he ends up overrated. Setting aside PEDs, Giles was an All-Star caliber player at his best, which didn't last very long; he's had a nice career...full stop.

[brett]

So if you take out probably roiders, and Coors boosted hitters, he would
have the following finishes:
OB%: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2
Slg: 1, 2

Ummm... I think you have to include Brian Giles in the list of "probably roiders"

I already said I suspect him.

[Bennybosox]

Maybe he was just good.

Yeah. And his brother made an All-Star game or two also. Based on his career path I guess we probably shouldn't suspect him of any PED use either.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I already said I suspect him.


"Are you now, or have you ever been, a member of the Communist party"

- Sen. Joseph McCarthy


Tail gunner Joe suspected a lot of people, too, and treated them as if they were guilty of whatever folks imagined that they were guilty of.

That's what disgusts me about the response to the PED issue. The "Spanish Inquisition", McCarthyesque approach to the problem to what, essentially, is a public health issue. I wonder how the folks here would respond to folks talking openly about how they "suspect" them of cheating on their spouses/significant others, and asking them how long they did so and when they stopped.

There is no proof that Brian Giles used PEDs. None. He needs to be dealt with on that basis. Either that, or folks here need to be OK with any innuendo anyone might throw out there about them.

[brett]

Tail gunner Joe suspected a lot of people, too, and treated them as if they were guilty of whatever folks imagined that they were guilty of.

That's what disgusts me about the response to the PED issue. The "Spanish Inquisition", McCarthyesque approach to the problem to what, essentially, is a public health issue. I wonder how the folks here would respond to folks talking openly about how they "suspect" them of cheating on their spouses/significant others, and asking them how long they did so and when they stopped.

There is no proof that Brian Giles used PEDs. None. He needs to be dealt with on that basis. Either that, or folks here need to be OK with any innuendo anyone might throw out there about them.

I don't factor my suspicions into my evaluation of his hall of fame case.

Say you suspect a neighbor of being a criminal. You don't put them in jail or post notices, but you don't let him watch your kids. That's what I mean by suspicion.

[SteveJRogers]

I have no idea how we can spend this amount of time talking about Brian Giles getting into the Hall of Fame. The only way he gets into the HOF is if he buys a ticket to tour the museum. NO CHANCE. He'll drop off the ballot within 3 years of eligiblity due to lack of votes.

3 years? Giles will be one of those who will get "Who the hell is the wise guy who voted for him" in his only year on the ballot.

Giles' will probably only be known for two "quips" on the Jim Rome radio show:

About the Pirates picking up veteran pitcher Ramon Martinez

"Yeah, he's Pedro's brother."

About recently departed Jason Kendall

"Gonna miss seeing him naked in the showers."

[Bennybosox]

[QUOTE=Fuzzy Bear;152

There is no proof that Brian Giles used PEDs. None. He needs to be dealt with on that basis. Either that, or folks here need to be OK with any innuendo anyone might throw out there about them.[/QUOTE]

Point taken, but i think we have to factor in PED use (although there is no proof) in the case for/against Giles.

He has no "jump off of the page" stats, and likely will not reach any of the milestones that make HOF enshrinement a little easier. The best seasons of his career came at the height of the "steroid era" and his power numbers simply vanished once testing was put into place (Please don't bring the arguement that he played in Petco, his home/ road splits are very similar). Unfortunateally for Giles, until the other 103 names on the list that A-Rod was on come out his career path, and the timeline of his peak years are more than a coincidence.

But does any of that really matter? Brian Giles is a nice player, but he will never sniff HOF consideration.

[Freakshow]

But does any of that really matter? Brian Giles is a nice player, but he will never sniff HOF consideration.Seems about right. Giles was ranked #493 in the Collaboration Game, which also seems about right. He needs to climb another 200 places to be a reasonable HOF candidate.

[SABR Matt]

If there are so many steroid users in the mid-90s...if in fact just about every big name we know of...pitchers AND hitters...were using some form of PED...then why do we dock individual players for doing so beyond making a longevity adjustment. Brian Giles may have used steroids. But so too (likely) did most of the guys he was hitting against and most of the other hitters against whom his production is being measured.

[brett]

Seems about right. Giles was ranked #493 in the Collaboration Game, which also seems about right. He needs to climb another 200 places to be a reasonable HOF candidate.

493! That's with pitchers? So that has to be somewhere aroud 325 among position players.

I would not put him in. He flamed out too fast but how many guys played 1800 games with a 137 OPS+? Maybe 75 or so I'd guess.

[SABR Matt]

435...LOL...that's just silly.

PCA had Giles ranked 260th among position players AS OF 2005! With 2 additional seasons (granted...not spectacular seasons) under his belt, he would be somewhere around 220th (the numbers get very bunched once you get below about rank 100). He's not a HOFer, but he's not the 435th best player either. Not even the 320th or so best position player.

[Freakshow]

493! That's with pitchers? So that has to be somewhere aroud 325 among position players.#352 among position players. That includes Negro leaguers.

I would not put him in. He flamed out too fast but how many guys played 1800 games with a 137 OPS+? Maybe 75 or so I'd guess.Total of 52, including such players as Norm Cash, Jack Clark and Bob Johnson.

Adjusted Batting Wins is a better measure of gross offensive production. Giles is tied with Cash for 76th place.

So, yeah, the Collaboration underrates Giles. Cash is #329, B. Johnson is #353, J. Clark is underrated at #423.

[SABR Matt]

Norm Cash, Jack Clark and Indian Bob Johnson have all been considered as borderline hall candidates...although all of them have mitigating circumstances that make them better candidates than Giles.

The collaboration game underrated Giles pretty heavily...but I can see why that happened. He doesn't gather much of a reputation playing for Pittsburgh and San Diego.

[Cowtipper]

Back in the early part of the decade I had high hopes that Giles would be able to pull one out of the bag and make his career into a Hall of Fame one...it didn't happen.

[Cougar]

A lock for one and done.