Numbers, Probability, and Opinion

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Let's see if this year this thread pays off. Here are the numbers for the playoff run. Probability and opinion, as always, can be discussed in the thread but the first post is just for the numbers.

I will update this as much as possible.
Go Braves!
To catch Philadelphia by the end of the season, the Braves
must gain 1 game every 10.31 days.
To catch the Wildcard Leader by the end of the season, the Braves
must gain 1 game every 8.93 days.

NL EAST Standings

Games Back / Team:
0 - Philadelphia
1 - New York
1½ - Florida
6½ - Atlanta
16 - Washington

Wildcard Standings

Games Back / Team:
0 - St. Louis
½ - Milwaukee
2 - New York
2½ - Florida
6½ - Los Angeles
7 - Cincinnati
7½ - Atlanta
8 - Pittsburgh
8½ - Houston



Games out of first in the NL East: 6½
Games out of first in the Wildcard: 7½
Games left in the regular season: 67

On this day in 2007:
The Braves were 1½ Games Back behind the Mets and in 2nd place in the NL East.
The Braves were 2 games out of the Wildcard.
The Braves were 6 games over .500 (48-42).

Current Records:
Braves: 45-40
Phillies - 52-44
Wildcard Leader(WCL) - 53-43


If the Phils play@ ---- The Braves Must Play@.
.450 (30-36) ------------- .570 (38-29)
.500 (33-33) ------------- .610 (41-26)
.550 (36-30) ------------- .660 (44-23)
.600 (40-26) ------------- .720 (48-19)

If the WCL play@ ---- The Braves Must Play@.
.450 (30-36) ------------- .580 (39-28)
.500 (33-33) ------------- .630 (42-25)
.550 (36-30) ------------- .670 (45-22)
.600 (40-26) ------------- .730 (49-18)

Record for Last 10 Games:
Braves - .500 (5-5)
Phils - .700 (5-5)
WCL (St. Louis) - .400 (4-6)

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

Great analysis! All four of the possibilites are tough for the Braves to achieve, but I still think they'll make it in as a wild card.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Without a doubt, the Braves have a Very Good Chance of making the wildcard spot.

I don't believe, I know.

VVV Remember who the Braves are this year VVV
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU4NqxXE7gU&search=braves
^^^ I posted this 4 innings before Francouer hit the game winner on July 7th to beat the Reds

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

It might be too soon to say this, but:

If we every team in the NL EAST keeps playing the way they are, the Braves would/will win the division.

Scary, eh?

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Not a big response to this thread, but I still believe so I will keep it going. :)

[Go Bravos!!!#1]

I'd like so more analasis in the near future.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

I'd like so more analasis in the near future.

Well you got it. I updated the page.

Due to the unpredictability of the WildCard race, it's just too uncertain to try and display all the possible scenarios, so I won't do that.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

*looks at the thread date*

Hmmmm.

*looks at current date*

HmmmMMMmm!

Starting to look doable.

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

It's looked doable from Day 1, but we've had our doubts.

[SamtheBravesFan]

• The Braves, fresh off a three-game sweep against the Padres in which they scored 10+ runs in every game, hammered the Cardinals on Monday night, 15-3. They are the first team in major-league history to score 10-or-more runs in four consecutive games, each time against a team in sole possession of first place.

• The Braves have scored 59 runs over their last five games, their highest total over any five-game span in more than 100 years -- since they scored 61 times in five games in September 1897.

• Brian McCann got things started for Atlanta with a grand slam. It was the fourth slam that Jeff Weaver has allowed over the last two seasons (2005-06), the most given up by any pitcher in the major leagues over that period. Weaver did not allow a grand slam in his first six seasons in the big leagues (1999-2004).

• Jorge Sosa capped the scoring for Atlanta with a home run, his third this season. Carlos Zambrano also has hit three homers in 2006. It's the first time in 22 years that more than one major-league pitcher hit 3-plus homers in a season. Three hurlers did that in 1984 (Tim Lollar, Eric Show and Fernando Valenzuela).

[LouGehrig]

Your problem with respect to winning the division is that there are not enough competitive teams in the league, and especially in the East, to put the Mets into any real slump.

Even if the Braves play great baseball the rest of the way, the Mets will manage to win enough games against the bad teams to win the division easily.

The Braves, with Smoltz, Hudson, and may Ramirez, could win a short series in October, but they still need bullpen help.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Your problem with respect to winning the division is that there are not enough competitive teams in the league, and especially in the East, to put the Mets into any real slump.

Even if the Braves play great baseball the rest of the way, the Mets will manage to win enough games against the bad teams to win the division easily.

The Braves, with Smoltz, Hudson, and may Ramirez, could win a short series in October, but they still need bullpen help.


Opinions are welcomed, so that's cool. With over 2 months of baseball left to play, I'm still very optimistic.

The Braves are on fire right now. Who is to say that opposing teams vs. the Mets can't do the same? Plus, with 9 games left to play vs. the Mets that can sway the race or forcefully focus the Braves on the wildcard.

I'll be at the Mets game on Saturday, and I can't wait! :)

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

I'll be at the Mets game on Saturday, and I can't wait! :)

I was trying to get to that game, but I have to go to a family reunion. I'm going to the game on August 9th against Philadelphia.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

I was trying to get to that game, but I have to go to a family reunion. I'm going to the game on August 9th against Philadelphia.
Sweet, have fun!

I updated the page. Thursday is a good day for us, because we'll gain a half game in the WC race or a half game in the Division.

The more and more I read and hear, the crazier this thread seems. However, it's fun to believe! :) GO BRAVES!

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Updated again. Mets haven't cooled down, but we're still playing better than them and gaining ground on the wildcard.

We've gained 5 games in the WC since July 1st.

GO BRAVES!

[Go Bravos!!!#1]

Thanks again TD!

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Thanks again TD!

Oh, quite welcome. I'll keep updating this page because, coincidentally, since I started it the Braves have been playing tremendous Baseball.

Maybe if there were two other threads like this, the Braves would play 1.000 baseball!!!!!!!!!

Ok, that's a bit extreme, but winning the division isn't quite as much as a pipe-dream. :)

Go Bravos!

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

I updated it again, today.

Nice comeback win by the Bravos and thanks Houston for beatin' da Reds.
If only the Cubbies could have put some runs up. Ah well, they took 2/3 from the Mets and that's better than I thought they would do.

One more with the Marlins, then the three game series with the Mets starts.
I'm excited. I'll be at the game on saturday!

GO BRAVES!

[AznInvasion]

I actually picked the braves to win NL Wild Card and Mets to win division preseason in a MLB prediction thread on here somewhere but I'm beginning to wonder if I should of picked against the braves. I was secretly trying to motivate them I guess.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Well I think they still have a great shot at winning the wildcard.

I haven't had the heart to update the page in a few days, but I will eventually.

Let's sweep dem Pirates then go into Cinci with some momentum! :)

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Don't look for this thread to be updated anytime soon.

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

Man, you can't be that angry! We need to see the numbers!!

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Well honestly, do you think I want to update a thread after we lose yet another 1 run game?

I can't even watch SportsCenter after last night's loss, let alone do numbers.

I'll put it back up when I'm in a better Braves mood.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Ok it's back up. Hope we can win tonight! :) Go Bravos!

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Updated. Let's go Braves! 2/3 from the Phillies would be awesome!

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

I'm rooting for those teams ahead of us to lose.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Updated. 2/3 from the Brewers was nice! :)
We slipped a half game out of the WC, but didn't fall behind any teams. We need to make a statement in DC with this 4 game series vs. the Nats.

The calendar is not our friend. The time is now or 2007 is where we start again.
Games left in August:
4 game series with the Nats, followed by a
3 game series with the Marlins, followed by a
3 game series with the Pirates, then another
3 game series with the Nats, and to finish it off a
3 game series with the Giants.

Hopefully, we can do the following:
5/7 from Nats
2/3 Marlins
3/3 Pirates
2/3 Giants

The Nats are rebuilding this year, so we have to take a lot of games.
The Marlins are still fighting and that will be the toughest series IMO.
The Pirates... we took 2/3 from them on the road, we can/should take 3/3 at home.
The Giants are on the skids right now and we need to capitalize on that.

If this unlikely scenario were to come true, our record at the end of august would be: 66-66

Not only would that (FINALLY) be .500 ball, but we should VERY MUCH be in contention for the WC.

Wishful thinking or possiblity? Only time will tell. Go Bravos!

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Updated again. 2/2 from the Nats wasn't good, but it could have been worse.

Time to make a statement in Florida and carry it through Pittsburgh. Then we face the Nats again. Go Bravos! Great win today!

[bama50]

Good job Tomahawk. I think it will be Arizona or Cincinnati. The Braves are cooked for the year. Unless Andruw Jones and Chipper get real hot with their bats.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Only time will tell. I think the Bravos have one more streak left in them this year. :)

[cadpro78]

Only time will tell. I think the Bravos have one more streak left in them this year. :)
YEAH A LONGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG ONEEE!! :-)

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Hey Hey Cad! :)

I love this board. It's not as busy as (you know, the other one) but there's no trolling. Everyone's polite here! :)

I'm up early early early! Go Braves!

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Not even sure if anyone reads this, but I'll update it anyway! :)
Braves beat da Marlins tonight in fine fashion.

Best of Luck to James and the Braves! Let's get another one in the W column!

4.5 games back. I'm gettin' excited!

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

The way the pitching has been has gotten me excited also. Hudson has spun gems in his last 3 starts and if the other pitchers can get it going this will be a hard team to beat.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Yep, the pitching has been great! Smoltzie had a bad outting, but he's entitled to one just because he's John Smoltz. :)

I hope Cormier has his A game tomorrow. a 5-2 road trip would be great... a 4-3 road trip would just be okay.

Tough opponent tomorrow in D-Train. But, if we want the WC it isn't going to be easy anyway so GO BRAVES! :)

Updating this when all the games are over.

[cbenson5]

Well eveybody, we are six and a half game out now. It just does not look like we have a good enough bullpen to put the kind of streak together that will be nescessary to catch the Reds.

[AznInvasion]

We need like 2 top-tier middle relievers between now and next season to sure up the bullpen. Or we need starting pitchers who can go at least 7 innings on a consistent basis.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Well eveybody, we are six and a half game out now. It just does not look like we have a good enough bullpen to put the kind of streak together that will be nescessary to catch the Reds.

Or catch whoever is in front of us, more accurately. We may catch the Reds and pass them if they go on a huge losing streak and us a winning streak. But by then some other teams would probably be in front of us and we'd have to catch them.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Updated again: *gulp*.

Looks like this might be the last time I update it. Unless the Braves come up with a big win streak (Their biggest of the year) it looks bad.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Looks like I gotta change the team to be chased from the Reds to the Padres.

I have a feeling I'm going to be quite busy updating this page.

*UPDATING IT NOW*

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

I've stickied the thread now.

[grizzly451]

Its amazing to see I believe 8 teams in the NL within 4 games of the wildcard. I know thats partly from less then stellar playing from some of those teams, but part of is also from a few teams hitting hot streaks too.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

I've stickied the thread now.

Thank you! :)

I'll update it every chance I get.

GO BRAVES!
*Updated*

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Game 1 of Saturday's DH with Philadelphia: Braves rally in the 9th off a 2-run homer to beat the Phillies 4-3.

WOOT!

Another win (combined with the Reds beating the Padres) puts us...oh my I can't even say it.

3 games out of the wildcard!!!!!!!!!!

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

We split the series 2/2 with philly. Game 3 was a heartbreaker when we fought back and scored 2 in the 8th, and 4 in the 9th, only to lose in the bottom of the 9th: 7-8.

It was Wickman's first blown save. That's okay by me, cause he's been lights out (and saved the night game) all year.

Now we head into NY for a 3 game series. Oh boy.

Go Braves!

[SamtheBravesFan]

Chuck James masterful 8 IP, 1 hit allowed, a single with Matt Diaz throwing out David Wright. :D

.500-O-METER: 15-10

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

I think it would be pointless to update this thread at this point and time.

It would take a miracle to get back into the WC race. And since we only needed a mediocre outting to win our last 2 games, and failed miserably, I think we'll need more than just one miracle: about 19-20 to be exact.

[SamtheBravesFan]

I think it would be pointless to update this thread at this point and time.

It would take a miracle to get back into the WC race. And since we only needed a mediocre outting to win our last 2 games, and failed miserably, I think we'll need more than just one miracle: about 19-20 to be exact.

How about a .500-O-METER: 14-8. :)

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

How about a .500-O-METER: 14-8. :)

Well it'd be nice to finish the season at .500. I guess that's something to aim for. :)

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

They're now 5 games under .500 after tonight's win.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Yep, they are doing pretty well.

If they gain another game in the wildcard (or atleast win tomorrow) I'll start updating this page again.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Well it'd be nice to finish the season at .500. I guess that's something to aim for. :)

I think that if the Braves finished at .500, it would show people that they didn't completely give up after that horrible June that killed us.

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

Time to update Tomahawk!! The Braves won 2-1 behind the strong outing of Lance Cormier. They are 4.5 games back of the Wild Card.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Hee hee yes it is.

I didn't want to update the page before, because frankly the numbers would make everyone pretty sad, not optimistic.

I'll update it now, though. Still looks grim, but not impossible!

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

Give us some hope!! :)

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

It's updated! :)

I hope SF can take 1 more game from SD.

That'd put us at 4 games out, and guess who our next two series are with?

Yep, you guessed it: Phillies and Florida.

We can still gain a LOT of ground in the next week, but it all comes from winning winning and more winning.

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

The Braves also have one more against the Cubbies tomorrow.

[Cpope]

"""Games Blown By Braves Bullpen: 19 """


That my friends was our season. :grouchy

Here's keeping my fingers crossed. :gt

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

It hurts to see the team like this after pitching was our forte over the last 15 years.

[Tarheelfan44]

yes it does...

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Updated and ready to go for tomorrow.

SF lost to SD today, so we didn't gain any ground in the WC. Since the Braves have won 3 in a row, and could possibly sweep this 4-game series, I'll do more predictions even though it's against my best judgement.

I will post my prediction for the standings by next Sunday evening, and how I arrived at the predictions.

Here are the games:
Atlanta- 1-Chicago, 3-Philly, 3-Florida.
Houston - 3-St. Louis, 3-Philly
Cincinnati - 3-San Diego, 3-Chicago
Phillies - 3 -Atlanta, 3-Houston
Marlins - 3-Mets, 3-Atlanta
San Diego - 3-Cinci, 4-Los Angeles.
San Francisco - 3-Colorado, 3-St. Louis


Predictions for WC Race at the end of Sunday evening:
0.0 - San Diego - 77-74 (3-3 record for next week)
0.5 - Marlins - 76-73 (4-2 record for next week)
0.5 - San Francisco 76-73 (4-2 record for next week)
1.5 - Cincinnati - 75-74 (4-2 record for next week)
1.5 - Phillies - 75-74 (3-3 record for next week)
2.5 - Atlanta - 74-75 (5-2 record for next week)
3.0 - Houston - 73-75 (3-3 record for next week)

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

Those predictions are reasonable, but even winning five games won't put us in striking postion.:ughh

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Those predictions are reasonable, but even winning five games won't put us in striking postion.:ughh

Nope, 2.5 out will still be incredibly tough with our remaining schedule and only 13 games left to play. But I went through probably pitchers, home vs away games, and other stats to figure then W/L for each team, and that's what I believe will happen.

I actually figured Hudson for 2 quality starts, so it's quite possible that Atlanta will go 4-3, not 5-2.

I hope I'm wrong and we win more games, but that's the way I see the WC Race by Sunday evening. I'll be watching all the games so let's go Braves!

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

:gt :gt :gt http://www.everbrite.com/products/indoor/graphics/MotionSigns/Sequencing_motion.jpg

[SamtheBravesFan]

Add a Marlins or Phillies game gained on the Braves because they're getting WAXED.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Well yesterday Smoltzie's injury got the better of him.
Today we had San Diego, Houston, and Florida lose. SF won, but that's okay.

We have a monster doubleheader tomorrow. It would be beautiful to atleast jump over Houston or be tied with them. Atleast we'd show up on the WC Race stats for ESPN and it'd give us a glimmer of hope.

God be with Kyle Davies tomorrow and let him have a quality start.

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

It's time Kyle got a win. In his last two starts he's been blasted!!

[SamtheBravesFan]

It's time Kyle got a win. In his last two starts he's been blasted!!

Well, he needs to keep the ball down. :cool:

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

This team can only do one thing to surprise me: find new ways to lose games.

Sorry, but I feel it's pointless to update this thread anymore.
Even I know when it's over, and it's over.

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

No more updates?? If not, just go ahead and give us a wrapup of how it ended.

[SamtheBravesFan]

No more updates?? If not, just go ahead and give us a wrapup of how it ended.

No way, that's too depressing. :eek:

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

No more updates?? If not, just go ahead and give us a wrapup of how it ended.

I don't think I could do that, especially after the DH. Honestly, if I felt we had a chance at the WC now, I would be updating this page like I have been for months.

:)

[SamtheBravesFan]

.500-O-METER: 11-4

Still a shot at that. :) A very tiny shot, but there is a shot. :dance

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Time to do this again this year!

Let's go Braves!

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

I finally got Excel up and running the way I want it, so it's just quick plugging in numbers for updates.

Go Braves!

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Updated!

Back in 2nd in the East and only 1 game out of the wildcard.

Look at first post for total stats. Go Braves!

[SamtheBravesFan]

Man, the overall record stuff still looks pretty daunting.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Man, the overall record stuff still looks pretty daunting.

Are you referring to the "if the Mets play @ ____ we must play @ ____?"

If it helps, the Mets haven't played over .500 ball in their last 60+ games. :)

[Cpope]

Good job, go Braves.

Here's hoping Tex will be the missing bat for the offence. :clapping

As for pitching, I am keeping my fingers crossed daily. :gt

[SamtheBravesFan]

Are you referring to the "if the Mets play @ ____ we must play @ ____?"

If it helps, the Mets haven't played over .500 ball in their last 60+ games. :)

Sure, that does make me feel better, but only a little bit.

On the Wild Card front, the Cubs and Brewers are losing right now, so the Braves can gain on them with a win.

[adamsowell]

If the Mets play@ ---- The Braves Must Play@.
.450 (25-30) ------------- .540 (39-25)
.500 (28-27) ------------- .590 (32-22)
.550 (30-25) ------------- .630 (34-20)
.600 (33-22) ------------- .690 (37-17)

One thing you have to remember is that 9 of these games are against each other. So if the Braves can do well in those games, it will be hard for the mets to be over .500 between now and the end of the season.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Updated. Let's take 2/3 from the Rockies and salvage this series! Go Braves!

We need momentum heading into Shea Stadium!

[SamtheBravesFan]

Updated. Let's take 2/3 from the Rockies and salvage this series! Go Braves!

We need momentum heading into Shea Stadium!

What we need is something catastrophically bad to happen to the Mets. The Braves have been playing very badly the past few games while the Mets have not. We've got a problem. I don't know how much longer I can say the Braves are good for the wild card.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

What we need is something catastrophically bad to happen to the Mets. The Braves have been playing very badly the past few games while the Mets have not. We've got a problem. I don't know how much longer I can say the Braves are good for the wild card.

Thursday's loss hurt in so many ways that it isn't even funny.

We have to gain one game every 26 days to win the wildcard. With around two months left to play, I'm not worried.

Here, have a cookie. They are yummy. :)

[AznInvasion]

I have a feeling you gonna run out of cookies hehe. Although you could substitute chill pills for them. I don't think they taste quite as nice though. :)

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

I have a feeling you gonna run out of cookies hehe. Although you could substitute chill pills for them. I don't think they taste quite as nice though. :)

Haha. Cookie flavored chill pills, maybe? :)

Anyway, I updated the first post. The Braves need to turn it on, right here, right now!

Go Braves!

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Talk about not wanting to update things. :( It does not look good at all (like I'm saying something you all don't already know).

[SamtheBravesFan]

The .500-O-METER that I have in my sig is a good place to start. Then I think we can look at the wild card if it's not out of reach by then.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

3rd year for this thread. Just wanted to bump it so I can edit the first post.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

The numbers don't look too good.

The only "optimistic" way to look at it is when you look at the average number of days needed to gain a game on the leader by the end of the season.

Optimism: Braves need to gain a game on Philly every 10.31 games to win the NL East.
Opinion: The Braves need to play about .650 ball after the ASB to have a shot.

Optimism: Braves need to gain a game on St. Louis every 8.93 days to win the wildcard.
Opinion: I don't see us having a chance in the wildcard race. I doubt if the Cubs are going to slow down anytime soon and St. Louis is solid. Also, we are in 7th place in the wildcard race.

Overall, I think another late NL East-leader meltdown is the most probable door, if any, to open for the Braves to have a shot at the post-season.

[jrh31584]

My comments on this in bold.
The numbers don't look too good.

The only "optimistic" way to look at it is when you look at the average number of days needed to gain a game on the leader by the end of the season.

Optimism: Braves need to gain a game on Philly every 10.31 games to win the NL East.
Opinion: The Braves need to play about .650 ball after the ASB to have a shot.
If the Phillies and Mets continue at their current winning percentage and the Braves play .650 ball, the Braves win the division by 1 game. Incidentally, if the Braves' total winning percentage in the second half is the same as their winning percentage in non-one-run games in the first half, they would be tied with the Mets and the Phillies if they were to play .500 ball from here on out.
Optimism: Braves need to gain a game on St. Louis every 8.93 days to win the wildcard.
Opinion: I don't see us having a chance in the wildcard race. I doubt if the Cubs are going to slow down anytime soon and St. Louis is solid. Also, we are in 7th place in the wildcard race.
I'm in agreement here.
Overall, I think another late NL East-leader meltdown is the most probable door, if any, to open for the Braves to have a shot at the post-season.

[Tomahawk Dynasty]

Interesting stat there about non-1-run games and winning the division there.

:)