Bunt the runner over ???

[dougmac]

Do you guys think the runner should be bunted over to 2nd base with no outs? Do you think he should be bunted over early or late in the game with no outs?
Do you think he should be bunted over at any time in the game with no outs?

If so, WHY?

[Ohfor]

Big Leagues I assume.

[dougmac]

From college on up.

[Ohfor]

I say it is all personnel driven.

I don't like bunting with one out. No outs is the only situation I consider it.

Pitcher batting? Best hitter batting? Poor hitter batting? Slumping hitter up?

Gotta know your personnel. Including whether they can bunt or not.

[ncsouthpaw]

This is too broad of a question, I need more information to decide-

Who is pitching for you and who is pitching for them (think you can win 1-0 or will you need 3-4 to win)

Where in the lineup are you?

Is stealing likely, does the guy on first have wheels, who is catching?

Can the guy at the plate hit it backside or make contact and hit and run?

College vs pros matters.

Who is and how hot is the guy at the plate?

Early vs Late?

In college with a normal hitting team I would not bunt the top of the order early in the game, bottom maybe but perfer hit and run or trying to steal. Late in the game 8th or 9th, go ahead and bunt him over.

Pro game, probably not bunting over with the top early but yes to bottom. Certainly bunting in 7,8,9 unless you have Bonds, Giambi, Pujols etc up. Also if you have Webb or Pedro pitching for or against I would be more likely to bunt.

[dougmac]

Do you guys think the runner should be bunted over to 2nd base with no outs? Do you think he should be bunted over early or late in the game with no outs?
Do you think he should be bunted over at any time in the game with no outs?

If so, WHY?


The above covers it....no ifs. ands or buts. If nobody can answer the 3questions, I will understand.

[dougmac]

OK, All the opinionated people on this board and I can't any answers to the 3 questions?? Has anyone on this board ever played the game and thought about why we should bunt or why we should not?

If you bunt the guy to second with no outs, what would be the advantage over not bunting him over?

[ncsouthpaw]

OK, All the opinionated people on this board and I can't any answers to the 3 questions?? Has anyone on this board ever played the game and thought about why we should bunt or why we should not?

If you bunt the guy to second with no outs, what would be the advantage over not bunting him over?

The advantage of not bunting him over is you are not giving away an out. With a runner on first and no outs the first thought would be to try and have an inning where you put up a crooked number. The advantage of bunting him over and having one out is that a singe more than likely scores him and you have two shots at that.

[Jake Patterson]

Do you guys think the runner should be bunted over to 2nd base with no outs?

Should?? I think the "opinionated" guys are avoiding answering the question because it depends on too many factors:
1. Who's running?
2. Who's Bunting.
3. What inning?
4. Who's coming to the plate?
5. How is the defense coverig?
6. How does the pitcher cover?
7. Where is the weak side?
8. Right hand or left hand?
9. Are you and effective small ball team?
10. How much training has the team have executing small ball?
11. etc...

Is it an effective tactic to move runners into game winning situations - yes - BUT.... see above.


Do you think he should be bunted over early or late in the game with no outs?
Again depends on who you are playing. On a team you can rattle early - bunt early. As a tactic to move runners into scoring position late in a low hit game then late.

Do you think he should be bunted over at any time in the game with no outs?

Again you're asking "He" and "Should" without giving specific game time conditions and situations- difficult to answer specifically.

[dougmac]

Jake, You are asking questions......you are the Mgr. and you have to make a decision, not ask questions.


Why would you ever bunt a guy over, and if you do what is the only hitting advantage that you have gained to score a run?......there is only one hitting advantage and you have to give up an out to get it.

What is it?

[dougmac]

Come on Ofer.....answer the question.

[Ohfor]

OK. I feel sorry for you. I'll let you get me here to make it even.

I have no clue what you're talking about.

I don't like the bunt. I would only do it in a very big game situation and then only if I liked the personnel invovled. Although I do like the squeeze.

I admit. I have no idea what you're talking about. You win.

Now, give us the answer.

[dougmac]

If the Mgr bunts the guy over to 2nd, he gives up an out.......OK. Once the runner gets to 2nd, the only hit that can score him that could not score him from first would be a single to the outfield. Even then a single to left field might not score him, so really just a single to center or right will score the guy from second. A Hr, triple or double would score the guy from first, so the Mgr is giving up an out hoping that the hitter can hit a single to center or right.

The sac bunt to 2nd with nobody out is stupid and it is used from youth ball all the way to the big leagues.

[Sluggerrr]

I thought it was common sense why people bunt runners to second. Granted there are a lot of things that could happen in any given at bat, but let's say you don't bunt a runner over with no outs. The next guy could hypothetically hit into a double play and kill your inning, fly out and not advance the runner (so now you have one out with a guy on first instead of second), or maybe he strikes out. None of those things help you out. So the advantage in bunting him over is having him on second instead of just getting an out and leaving him on first. He could also hit a homerun, nobody knows.

But if you do bunt him over, and the next guy hit's a ground ball to the right side or maybe a deep fly ball to right center, he'll advance to third. Maybe he hits a ground ball and an error occurs, and he scores from second, who knows, there's a lot that can happen. But when you figure that 7 out of 10 times someone's going to make an out anyway, it's not stupid, it's playing the percentages. In a close game that one run makes all the difference.

So to answer your questions, in my opinion:
1) Yes
2) Late
3) Yes, I'd usually lean toward late, unless the other team is throwing a stud that you don't think you'll score more than 1 or 2 runs on. That said, I've been surprised at the number of guys on college teams on TV that can't put down a sac bunt, so like some of these guys have said, it depends who's at the plate.
Up top is the Why.

[STM4UA]

would score the runner from second but not from first,

[Jake Patterson]

If the Mgr bunts the guy over to 2nd, he gives up an out.......OK. Once the runner gets to 2nd, the only hit that can score him that could not score him from first would be a single to the outfield. Even then a single to left field might not score him, so really just a single to center or right will score the guy from second. A Hr, triple or double would score the guy from first, so the Mgr is giving up an out hoping that the hitter can hit a single to center or right.

The sac bunt to 2nd with nobody out is stupid and it is used from youth ball all the way to the big leagues.

Bottom of the last inning - tied score - your number two left handed hitter hasn't touch the ball all day BUT he is your best bunter and one of the fastest players on the team. You got nothing left on the bench - Your fastest runner is on first - Number 3 hitter went 3-4 and your number 4 hitter is 3 - 4 with two doubles. Both are reliable hitters. The pitcher is a 245lb'er that can't move and the first baseman is playing back. Catcher is slow.

Still don't bunt???

[Ohfor]

Do not question DMAcian logic.

He's an insider.

Their logic is the rule, even if you can prove mathematically that they are full of sheet.

[dougmac]

Nice to hear from you fat boy......only after the fact as usual.

[Ohfor]

Your tone indictes you took an ass beating last night.

Someone who has never played at your level taking you to school.

Well.....you were a pitcher.

[dougmac]

The fatboy did not answer the bunt question because he had no clue.

[ssarge]

I'll try to dig out the stats, I have them somewhere.

Someone input every MLB game for the past 20 years and determined the liklihood of scoring runs - and how many runs - in any given situation.

A runner on 1B with no outs will result in .78 runs (on average). Sometimes it leads to 10 runs, sometimes it leads to no runs.

A runner on 2B with one out will lead to .71 runs - on average. Meaning, at least on the surface, that you will score 10% LESS runs if you bunt. Probably even less than that, because I'll bet there is a double play or the runner fails to advance to 2B more often than the runner and batter are BOTH safe (runners at 1B and 2B w/ no outs results in about 1 run being scored, on average, a very favorable situation. But reaching safely on a bunt is pretty rare.)


However, the liklihood of scoring a SINGLE RUN with a runner at 2B and one out is higher.

Meaning, I suppose, the question is game and situation dependent. Also dependent on personnel skill set, and a number of other variables.


However, just statistically speaking, bunting a runner over w/ no outs in MLB leads to slightly less runs being scored. That makes me inclined to do it not real frequently.

Regards,

Scott

[Jake Patterson]

The fatboy did not answer the bunt question because he had no clue.
What is it you are trying to get us to say????

You haven't given us enough information to intelligently answer the question.....

[wogdoggy]

DOUG MAC seems you already knew the answer before you asked it..:crazy

[dougmac]

What is it you are trying to get us to say????

You haven't given us enough information to intelligently answer the question.....

Jake, sarge figured it out without any problem. My point was that with a runner on 2nd, the only hit that is different that would score the run is a single to center or right, and you have given up an out to try and hit that single. The runner can score from first too, and you don't have to hand over an out.

[ssarge]

Doug:

As an NL guy, do you make an exception for the pitcher? Or does it depend?

Thanks and regards,

Scott

[LClifton]

My point was that with a runner on 2nd, the only hit that is different that would score the run is a single to center or right

Unless Luis Gonzales is playing in left field.

[dougmac]

Or Barry Bonds.

[dougmac]

Doug:

As an NL guy, do you make an exception for the pitcher? Or does it depend?

Thanks and regards,

Scott



Shoot the pitcher........or bunt him. Which ever you prefer.

[dougmac]

Sarge, Actually my thoughts on this started a few years ago watching D1 college baseball games. The coaches start with the sac bunt in the first inning and will do it every inning thay can. I have told a few of them off over the years too. If you play for one run, that is all you will get if you are lucky. Play for one run and you won't ever put up a crooked number. The coaches want to win the game with their moves and won't let the players win the game. In my whole area there are two real good college coaches, and I have a huge area. They both played pro ball for many years and one of them played 10 years in the big leagues. One is heading to Omaha for the second straight year and the other took over a brutal program two years ago and has won 30 games back to back to start off his college coaching career. They never bunt early in the game........ever.

[Ohfor]

Now early in the game is the standard.

[dougmac]

No fat boy, the answer was to Sarge, who figured out the question unlike you.

[Ohfor]

You'll continue to be testy as long as I remind everyone about you having your ass handed to you last night.

It is now documented. That is a good thing.

[dougmac]

Fat boy, you live in a glass house and you were dead wrong on the bat angle of Brett and Pujols. I am very pleased that it is documented.

[Jake Patterson]

I'll try to dig out the stats, I have them somewhere.

Someone input every MLB game for the past 20 years and determined the liklihood of scoring runs - and how many runs - in any given situation.

Scott - I wonder what these stats would look like for college, HS, Legion, LL, middle school, etc...

[ssarge]

Don't know.

I assume they would be relatively the same. probably score more at those levels because there are more errors. But it seems to me that the increase would be equally applied through each possible scenario. Meaning that runner on 1B, no outs would still score 10% more total runs than a runner on 2B, 1 out. Just a guess, though.

Best regards,

Scott

[fungo22]

The sac bunt to 2nd with nobody out is stupid and it is used from youth ball all the way to the big leagues. Especially in HS and small college. It's called "small ball," AKA over-coaching. There ought to be three signs: Runner on first, 2-run HR. Runner on 1B and 2B , 3-run HR. Runners elsewhere, drive-em in.

[BearsCoach13]

"small ball" AKA over-coached...hehe, what a crock.

I guess the Chicago White Sox and the Texas Longhorns would love to hear your theories on winning. If I'm not correct, both of these teams used "small ball" to win their respective championships last year.

[ssarge]

Doug, and any others interested:


Thanks to Steve over at eTeamZ who found the stats I had reviously seen, but couldn't locate the other day.

What follows is the "Expected Run Value" from MLB:

. . . . . .Empty. . .1st. . . . .2nd. . . .3rd. . . . .1st&2nd. .1st&3rd. ..2nd&3rd. . .Loaded
0 out. . .0.537. . .0.907. . .1.138. . .1.349. . .1.515. . . .1.762. . . .1.957. . . . .2.399
1 out. . .0.294. . .0.544. . .0.720. . .0.920. . .0.968. . . .1.140. . . .1.353. . . . .1.617
2 out. . .0.114. . .0.239. . .0.347. . .0.391. . .0.486. . . .0.522. . . .0.630. . . . .0.830

As you can see, I was slightly wrong, although in a direction that actually strengthens the conclusion.

Interesting. Walk a guy to lead off an inning, and you really ARE giving up a run - or 9/10s of one, on average.

And a SUCCESSFUL sacrifice bunt means that you will score 20% fewer runs than not sacrificing.

I continue to believe the percentages of scoring a SINGLE run might be higher w/ a SUCCESSFUL sacrifice, but don't have the hard data.

Steve also pointed out that SB success has to be above 71% (I had heard 72%, but close) to be a "good" bet.

For what it is worth. Certainly interesting, and food for thought.

Best regards,

Scott

[Jake Patterson]

. . . . . .Empty. . .1st. . . . .2nd. . . .3rd. . . . .1st&2nd. .1st&3rd. ..2nd&3rd. . .Loaded
0 out. . .0.537. . .0.907. . .1.138. . .1.349. . .1.515. . . .1.762. . . .1.957. . . . .2.399
1 out. . .0.294. . .0.544. . .0.720. . .0.920. . .0.968. . . .1.140. . . .1.353. . . . .1.617
2 out. . .0.114. . .0.239. . .0.347. . .0.391. . .0.486. . . .0.522. . . .0.630. . . . .0.830



Man on 1st bunt him over best hitter coming up - base hit - now men on 1st and 3rd- 1 out.

Man on 1st no outs = .907 Runs
Man on 1st and 3rd 1 out = 1.140 Runs

Good small ball is good coaching
Exessive small ball that leads to a lost is bad coaching
Especially in HS ball

[dougmac]

Jake, Man on first and you bunt him over and give up an out. If your best hitter is coming up, I walk him and then get a DP ball and the inning is over.


Please explain what "good" small ball is.

[DunninLA]

Scott, I'm copying this link that was posted today on the eteamz fastpitch board:

http://www.all-baseball.com/cubreporter/archives/000752.html

[Jake Patterson]

Please explain what "good" small ball is.

I'm talking youth ball here (HS).

Are implying bunting, stealing, squeezes, delayed steals, etc.. should not be part of the game?

Where are you going with this thread?

[Ohfor]

He's trapped by an assinine always/never statement.

Good luck with him.

[Ifubuildit]

Scores tied 1-1. 1st batter walks. Bottom of the 9th.

Do you bunt twice to move him to third and give up the 2 outs?

What do you do DMAC?


Elliott.

[TrojanSkipper]

I'll pitch in my 2 cents from a high school view point. You can throw those MLB "expected run values" right out the friggin window in high school ball. 2 things will make your decision: 1) Are you facing an Ace? if yes than you better bunt him over unless your 3 hole is up and you've got a lot of confidence in 3-4-5. Question number 2) What are the conditions? Wind blowing out or a sunny windy day, forget about bunting there's too much pressure on the defense... make them get you out. Wind blowing in the game has just become fast-pitch softball and you better bunt him over.

[dougmac]

Scores tied 1-1. 1st batter walks. Bottom of the 9th.

Do you bunt twice to move him to third and give up the 2 outs?

What do you do DMAC?


Elliott.

I don't bunt at all. Read Sarge's post and you will understand.