Is a .400 BA season still possible?

[baseball junkie]

In the 20 odd years I've been watching MLB: Pete Rose has passed Ty Cobb to become the all-time hit king; Nolan Ryan has thrown 5,000+ SO & tossed 7 no-hitters; Cal Ripken Jr. has passed Lou Gehrig in the consecutive games played; Barry Bonds has passed Babe Ruth in home runs; 61 now means nothing; Roger Clemens has won 7 Cy Young Awards.

All the magic numbers are being surpassed except the one that counts the most to me: .406. My question is, will anyone playing today ever post a .400 batting average?

It's now been 65 years since it was last done. Can it even be done? If so, who are the likely candidates?

[Suspectdevice1]

Yes, its possible. After all, Tony Gwyn hit .394 in 1994 and really had a descent shot if it wasn't for the strike that year. My guess is if anybody did it now....maybe Ichiro? Even he is a bit of a longshot though. Too many others focus way too much on HRs to hit .400, which is of course one of the most amazing things about Williams is that he did hit for power too! It wasn't just like getting a million little hits, which in my mind would seem to be the best case scenario as of right now. But then again, who knows what all else Pujols is capable of?

[Astro]

No Suzuki wont do it, he doesnt walk enough.... tired of everyone saying he has a chance... he'd need about 280 hits to do it with how many walks he draws

[SHOELESSJOE3]

In the 20 odd years I've been watching MLB: Pete Rose has passed Ty Cobb to become the all-time hit king; Nolan Ryan has thrown 5,000+ SO & tossed 7 no-hitters; Cal Ripken Jr. has passed Lou Gehrig in the consecutive games played; Barry Bonds has passed Babe Ruth in home runs; 61 now means nothing; Roger Clemens has won 7 Cy Young Awards.

All the magic numbers are being surpassed except the one that counts the most to me: .406. My question is, will anyone playing today ever post a .400 batting average?

It's now been 65 years since it was last done. Can it even be done? If so, who are the likely candidates?

The biggest reason so many other offensive numbers have been surpassed but no .400 hitters is the contact game is a thing of the past, lots of strikeouts in todays game. There is a small number of contact type hitters in todays game. Add to that the parks are much smaller and outfielders playing deep because of the live ball leaves little room for balls to "drop' in front of them. Add to that there are a great number of speedy outfielders in the game picking off some balls that may have been hits many years ago.

Probably some other reasons but I have to put the high strike out rate near the top.

[SamtheBravesFan]

The biggest reason so many other offensive numbers have been surpassed but no .400 hitters is the contact game is a thing of the past, lots of strikeouts in todays game. There is a small number of contact type hitters in todays game. Add to that the parks are much smaller and outfielders playing deep because of the live ball leaves little room for balls to "drop' in front of them. Add to that there are a great number of speedy outfielders in the game picking off some balls that may have been hits many years ago.

Probably some other reasons but I have to put the high strike out rate near the top.

A high strikeout rate involves many players, does it not? It just takes one player who doesn't strike out much at all and who can get hits at a blistering pace. It's that simple.

[redbuck]

This is one of those records that, to me, seems completely inconsequential. Yes, it's a fun one to keep track of, but in 2004 Barry Bonds' on base percentage hit as high as .630 in July and ended the season around .600. That, to mee, is far more impressive than a .400 batting average.

A player who is hitting .400 will get walked a lot and may not even get enough at bats to qualify for that title.

[Seattle1]

Ichiro might be able to do it, but I doubt anyone else can. And for Ichiro to do it, I'm pretty sure he would have to end up with even more hits than 262 because he gets so many A.B.'s.

[geezer]

And what about the hitting Triple Crown, hasnt been done in 39 years, and is tougher than batting .400 as well.

[Mattingly]

Yes, its possible. After all, Tony Gwyn hit .394 in 1994 and really had a descent shot if it wasn't for the strike that year. My guess is if anybody did it now....maybe Ichiro? Even he is a bit of a longshot though. Too many others focus way too much on HRs to hit .400, which is of course one of the most amazing things about Williams is that he did hit for power too! It wasn't just like getting a million little hits, which in my mind would seem to be the best case scenario as of right now. But then again, who knows what all else Pujols is capable of?
http://www.baseballreference.com/g/gwynnto01.shtml

Tony Gwynn had 165 hits in 419 AB in 1994, over 110 games. He had only 48 walks, but had a meager 19 K. I think that's the key. I'd have thought he'd have had somewhere around 80+ walks, but it was his few ABs that did it.

There were somewhere around 115 games played in 1994?

[RedSoxVT92]

I think it is most deffiantly possible. With the water downed pitching and the hitters getting most of the advantages it could happen. Anything is possible. But the only thing is that batters focus on their forte like if they hit home runs or just try to get on base. They must have tremoundous talent to do it. I also think the triple crown is possible also. But maybe because that hasnt happend is that their is more competition now. When Yaz won it in 1967 their was 20 teams in the Majors. Now their is 30 teams in the majors. What I really would like to see is someone break the all time batting average of Hugh Duffys .440. It would be very very difficult to do, almost impossible but like I said anything is possible.

[jlpennington]

When Ichiro got 262 hits in 2004, his batting average was .372. That year, he had 704 at-bats and drew 49 walks. In order for Ichiro to bat EXACTLY .400 with 262 hits, he would've needed 655 at-bats. That means he would've had to have drawn 49 more walks (98). The most he's ever drawn in a season is 68. Clearly, that's not gonna happen with Ichiro.

[Ubiquitous]

Yes hitting .400 over 162 games is possible both Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs have done it so there is no real why it can't be done again.

[ichiro262]

The thing about Ichrio is that he is an extremely streaky hitter. More times than not he is good, but he'd have to cut down on those months when he hits .290-.300 (happens once or twice a year). In 2004 he hit over .400 the second half -- I think if you can do it for half a season you can do it for a season. You guys are right though, he would need somewhere from 270-280 hits. Probably won't happen but I guess we'll see. Interesting sidenote: he's hitting .558 in June.

[AstrosFan]

For the most part, I think, we agree that the best candidates for .400 are the line drive hitters. Sluggers have hit .400 before: Rogers Hornsby and Ted Williams, but for the most part, a .400 hitter's power comes in the form of doubles and triples.

If you look at the stats, it seems pretty clear that the .400 seasons have come in hitter's eras, hitter's parks, or both. If we got a Wade Boggs type hitter (high average, draws walks), the league conditions changed so averages were back up to at least .275 (like they were in the AL in 2000), and placed him in a hitter's park, I could see .400 happening. Ichiro won't do it unless he gets out of Safeco. It's probably the second worst hitter's park in baseball, behind Petco. And even then, he'd have to become a more patient hitter, as has been mentioned.

[redban]

Yes hitting .400 over 162 games is possible both Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs have done it so there is no real why it can't be done again.

When did Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn bat .400?

[Ubiquitous]

Boggs did it in 1985-86
Gwynn did it in 1993-1994

[SHOELESSJOE3]

A high strikeout rate involves many players, does it not? It just takes one player who doesn't strike out much at all and who can get hits at a blistering pace. It's that simple.

Agreed, only takes one. What I meant by my comment on the high strikeout rate was that there is a much smaller pool, smaller number of contact hitters so there is not many with a chance at hitting .400.

Also, not saying it can't be done but the odds are greater today because there are so many more hitters going for the long ball, less contact.

[Mattingly]

Boggs did it in 1985-86
Gwynn did it in 1993-1994
Wade Boggs (http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/boggswa01.shtml) hit .368 in 1985; .357 in 1986.

In 1993, Tony Gwynn (http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gwynnto01.shtml) hit .358; in the strike-shortened 1994 season, he'd hit .394. He came closest in 1994, but there wasn't a guarantee he'd have increased his BA by .006 points over an extra 50 games.

[Edgartohof]

Wade Boggs (http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/boggswa01.shtml) hit .368 in 1985; .357 in 1986.

In 1993, Tony Gwynn (http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gwynnto01.shtml) hit .358; in the strike-shortened 1994 season, he'd hit .394. He came closest in 1994, but there wasn't a guarantee he'd have increased his BA by .006 points over an extra 50 games.

He's talking about the fact that both of them hit over .400 over a 162 game period between those seasons.

[cup2006sensrule]

I think it can be done and will be done. Perhaps the most likely type of player is one like Bonds has been for the last 5 years. He would be a power hitter that gets a ton of walks. He would not need that many hits to win a batting title. In 2002 he hit .370 and had 198 BB and only 47 SO. He had 149 hits. In 2004 he hit .362 with 232 BB and only 41 strikeouts. He had 135 hits. In 2002 if he had 20 less BB and 20 more hits he would have hit .400. In 2004 with 24 less BB and 24 more hits he hits .400.

Clearly these are insane stats. But if you have a similar type of player that gets a ton of walks and has few strike outs he doesn't have to get that many hits to hit .400. I bet if Bonds had started on the Roids 10 years earlier and become more of a home run hitter then he might have hit .400 a couple of times.

It would be far easier in my opinion for a power hitter that gets a ton of BB and few SO to hit .400 in the near future than it would a player like Ichiro who would have to get like 275 hits or something to hit .400.

[baseball junkie]

Interesting theories and it seems to me that we're ignoring one player with the potential to hit .400 over a regulation 162 game season.

And he plays on a small-market team that desperately needs him to. They have some of the worst attendance numbers in baseball:

2005: 2,034,243 for 9th out of 14
2004: 1,911,490 for 10th out of 14
2003: 1,946,011 for 8th out of 14
2002: 1,924,473 for 9th out of 14
2001: 1,782,929 for 11th out of 14
2000: 1,000,760 for 14th out of 14

Those paltry attendance numbers include three division crowns and the team has one the World Series twice in the last twenty years.

The team of course is the Minnesota Twins and the player is their young catcher Joe Mauer.

For his career Mauer, 23, is a .320 hittter with 258 base hits in 806 at-bats. In that same span of time he has amassed 98 walks. He is clearly a patient hitter.

But as one particular poster is keeping track, this season is special. He's leading MLB with a .386 BA -- 81/210 with 26 walks.

My questions are these, if Mauer is still hitting in the .380s in late July or August should the Twins move him from behind the plate and station him at first base or left field so he can make a run at .400 without the wear and tear of a full season behind the plate? Wouldn't this almost be a necessity for the Twins in order to prop up attendance? This is a cash-strapped franchise.

Finally, if the Twins moved Mauer and he hit .400 would you consider his feat tainted?

[Ubiquitous]

If you are hitting .380 entering in late July or after July making a run at .400 is almost impossible. NOt totally impossible but extremely improbable.

LEt us say that he maintains his .386 average to the end of July. At that point their is 58 games left in the season and Joe has 353 AB and 136 hits for a .385 AVG. Now then over the next 58 games if he maintains his play rate we can expect him to appear in 52 games and have 195 AB's. In order to get his final batting average to .400 he needs to get 83 hits in those final at bats which would be a .426 batting average over that span. Like I said not totally impossible but darn near it for him.

I hope he does it but I find it highly unlikely.

In order to make a run you need to have a higher batting average going into the final month then .380+ batting average or else you really need to catch fire.

[west coast orange and black]

redban: When did Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn bat .400?

everywhereman: Boggs did it in 1985-86; Gwynn did it in 1993-1994


a "hidden season" in baseball is the length of time that it takes a team to play, over the course of consecutive seasons, 162 games (or 154, depending on era).

over the final 107 games of of the ’85 season boggs batted .402.
then by 8 june 1986, the 162nd game of the skein, boggs had batted in 160 of ‘em for an even .400
at the end of the 154th game boggs was at .402

tony gwynn's best "hidden season", i believe, was from 1 july-1 july 1994, when he batted .398

[Ubiquitous]

Gwynn batted .400 over 162 Padres games that year. I believe the first day that you are counting was a double header. If you ignore the first games you get 162 games and obviously if you count the first game you get 163 games. By not counting the first one your get a .400 average over 162 Padres games. Counting it you get a .398 average over 163 PAdres games.

[west coast orange and black]

many thanx for the correction, everywhere.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

If you are hitting .380 entering in late July or after July making a run at .400 is almost impossible. NOt totally impossible but extremely improbable.

LEt us say that he maintains his .386 average to the end of July. At that point their is 58 games left in the season and Joe has 353 AB and 136 hits for a .385 AVG. Now then over the next 58 games if he maintains his play rate we can expect him to appear in 52 games and have 195 AB's. In order to get his final batting average to .400 he needs to get 83 hits in those final at bats which would be a .426 batting average over that span. Like I said not totally impossible but darn near it for him.

I hope he does it but I find it highly unlikely.

In order to make a run you need to have a higher batting average going into the final month then .380+ batting average or else you really need to catch fire.

I think looking at Brett's 1980 season can give some insight. Brett was over .400 as late as September 19th. Bur he didn't reach .400 at all until August 17th.

[Rennie Stennett]

Some have said that Ichiro can't hit (.400) because he doesn't walk enough. Sure Ichiro averages (46) walks per year, since he's been in the bigs.

Here are walk totals for guys that hit (.400) or came close:

Player BB AVG Year

Cobb 44 .420 1911
Cobb 43 .410 1912
Cobb 55 .401 1922

Hornsby 65 .401 1922
Hornsby 89 .424 1924
Hornsby 143 .403 1925

Williams 145 .406 1941
Williams 119 .388 1957

Brett 58 .390 1980

Qwynn 48 .394 1994

Ichiro 49 .372 2004

Hitting (.400) is basically going 2 for 5. Two hits every five at bats. Walks, as we know, are not an offical AB and don't count. Say Ichiro is over (.400) in August and September, will he get Intentional Walks or will they just pitch to him ? Does it matter ? As mentioned above, he has hit over (.400) for the last half of ('04.) Why can't he do it for the rest of the year ? Right know he is making it look like kid stuff. In addition, he might as well brake Joe D's (56) game hit streak while he's at it.

[Astro]

Some have said that Ichiro can't hit (.400) because he doesn't walk enough. Sure Ichiro averages (46) walks per year, since he's been in the bigs.

Here are walk totals for guys that hit (.400) or came close:

Player BB AVG Year

Cobb 44 .420 1911
Cobb 43 .410 1912
Cobb 55 .401 1922

Hornsby 65 .401 1922
Hornsby 89 .424 1924
Hornsby 143 .403 1925

Williams 145 .406 1941
Williams 119 .388 1957

Brett 58 .390 1980

Qwynn 48 .394 1994

Ichiro 49 .372 2004

Hitting (.400) is basically going 2 for 5. Two hits every five at bats. Walks, as we know, are not an offical AB and don't count. Say Ichiro is over (.400) in August and September, will he get Intentional Walks or will they just pitch to him ? Does it matter ? As mentioned above, he has hit over (.400) for the last half of ('04.) Why can't he do it for the rest of the year ? Right know he is making it look like kid stuff. In addition, he might as well brake Joe D's (56) game hit streak while he's at it.
Pitchers are also much better than they were in the days of Cobb and Hornsby, fielders are quicker, better and faster...

[csh19792001]

Yes hitting .400 over 162 games is possible both Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs have done it so there is no real why it can't be done again.

I can see this line of reasoning, but I doubt the entire media was hounding either one of them incessantly, day in and day out, towards the end of that 162 game timeframe. I seriously doubt either of them were even cognizant that they'd hit over .400 during that span. The media attention alone certainly plays a huge role in the extinction of .400. With the 24 hour media (even sports media) of today, the incessant discussion, banter, and questioning would bring anyone to the ledge. If someone in the next few years is at or above .400 in September, we'll see it in full force.

Also, Ichiro might be one of the best average hitters in baseball history, and also one of the fastest to first base (I know those two things are inextricably bound, but you know what I mean). I don't see anyone else right now showing the combination of talent and potential to have a real shot at .400 besides him. Do you?

Another thing...that .394 in 1994 was the highest Gwynn's average had been since the beginning of May that year (that's 3 months). And if you look at the seasonal pattern with batting average and modern players, it's almost always the case that (due to cumulative fatigue, injuries, pressure, whatever) players drop off towards the end of the year.

[Ubiquitous]

Roger Maris was hounded to the end of the season and he was the type of guy who didn't shrug it off. Yet Roger broke the record. Mark McGwire was hounded he destroyed the record. I doubt the media coverage is what makes hitting .400 hard nor do I think that if somebody had a chance at .400 that the media coverage would make it harder to do.

[cardinals1991]

injuries are what makes it hard to do

[yankillaz]

Is a very difficult task, but it can be done. Ichiro is my best bet. He recently had a stretch in May and the beginning of June that is only bested by Williams himself, in terms of BA. So i think that Japanese Robot (excuse me if someone is offended) is the only player that can do it...walking or not.

[Rennie Stennett]

Roger Maris was hounded to the end of the season and he was the type of guy who didn't shrug it off. Yet Roger broke the record. Mark McGwire was hounded he destroyed the record. I doubt the media coverage is what makes hitting .400 hard nor do I think that if somebody had a chance at .400 that the media coverage would make it harder to do.

A large Japanese press follows every M's game, along with the regular press. Ichiro is god-like in Japan. Like Elvis and the Beatles. The States are like a picnic to him.

[dl4060]

Wade Boggs (http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/boggswa01.shtml) hit .368 in 1985; .357 in 1986.

In 1993, Tony Gwynn (http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gwynnto01.shtml) hit .358; in the strike-shortened 1994 season, he'd hit .394. He came closest in 1994, but there wasn't a guarantee he'd have increased his BA by .006 points over an extra 50 games.

I am just about positive that Boggs did hit .400 over 162 games, from a time in 1985 to a period in the 1986 season. Maybe from june of 85 to june of 86. I remember reading about it during the summer of 1987 in SI. He did not do it in a full season, but if you took a 162 game period and spread it across 2 seasons he got there. As for Gwynn, if you figure he hit .394 in 94, he would have had to hit maybe .410-.420 or something like that in the final 50 games of 93 to have a period of 162 games with a .400 BA.

[dl4060]

Some have said that Ichiro can't hit (.400) because he doesn't walk enough. Sure Ichiro averages (46) walks per year, since he's been in the bigs.

Here are walk totals for guys that hit (.400) or came close:

Player BB AVG Year

Cobb 44 .420 1911
Cobb 43 .410 1912
Cobb 55 .401 1922

Hornsby 65 .401 1922
Hornsby 89 .424 1924
Hornsby 143 .403 1925

Williams 145 .406 1941
Williams 119 .388 1957

Brett 58 .390 1980

Qwynn 48 .394 1994

Ichiro 49 .372 2004

Hitting (.400) is basically going 2 for 5. Two hits every five at bats. Walks, as we know, are not an offical AB and don't count. Say Ichiro is over (.400) in August and September, will he get Intentional Walks or will they just pitch to him ? Does it matter ? As mentioned above, he has hit over (.400) for the last half of ('04.) Why can't he do it for the rest of the year ? Right know he is making it look like kid stuff. In addition, he might as well brake Joe D's (56) game hit streak while he's at it.


It is alot easier to be on a hot streak for one half of a season than for a full season. Many people have maintained a .400 average into june, and some into july. If .400 over 60-80 games represents the top of his ability, than it would be surprising if he were able to do that over 162. He would more likely regress to his actual level of ability. Many people get on hot streaks, it is much more difficult to maintain that level over a full season. He might be able to do it, but it is extremely unlikely. If you were to take all the people who have hit .400 during periods, and make a curve out of it, you would get a shape that would be much like one half of a normal distribution curve. Countless players have had periods of 40 games where they hit over .400. Far fewer have done so for eighty games, far fewer than that for 120, and so on. I am not going to do this work, but I am pretty positive that is what you would end up with. Lots of people hit very well for periods. Maintaining it is where the difficulty is. From 1982-1988 Boggs was consistently at the .360 level, with 84 being his only off year. I think it was possible he could have done it at that time, but highly unlikely. Ichiro is more up and down, which gives me less confidence in his ability to exceed his career high. I am more comfortable saying Boggs from 82-88 was a .360 hitter than I am in Ichiro. Ichiro bounces up and down too much.

[TonyK]

It will be done eventually. Some plusses I think would help the next .400 hitter are:

1. Left handed batter with speed.
2. Excellent bunter - maybe get 8 to 10 singles.
3. Hitters Park at home suited to his style of hitting.
4. Walks at least 70 to 100 times.
5. Tremendous start and well over .400 by the AS break.
6. Excellent fastball hitter that can hit a 97 MPH closers fastball.

[Rennie Stennett]

It is alot easier to be on a hot streak for one half of a season than for a full season. Many people have maintained a .400 average into june, and some into july. If .400 over 60-80 games represents the top of his ability, than it would be surprising if he were able to do that over 162. He would more likely regress to his actual level of ability. Many people get on hot streaks, it is much more difficult to maintain that level over a full season. He might be able to do it, but it is extremely unlikely. If you were to take all the people who have hit .400 during periods, and make a curve out of it, you would get a shape that would be much like one half of a normal distribution curve. Countless players have had periods of 40 games where they hit over .400. Far fewer have done so for eighty games, far fewer than that for 120, and so on. I am not going to do this work, but I am pretty positive that is what you would end up with. Lots of people hit very well for periods. Maintaining it is where the difficulty is. From 1982-1988 Boggs was consistently at the .360 level, with 84 being his only off year. I think it was possible he could have done it at that time, but highly unlikely. Ichiro is more up and down, which gives me less confidence in his ability to exceed his career high. I am more comfortable saying Boggs from 82-88 was a .360 hitter than I am in Ichiro. Ichiro bounces up and down too much.

Boggs was a great hitter. When he drove the ball, he was that much better, which makes the slappy, dinker, stuff work. Much like Ichiro. When Suzuki drives the ball, they can't cheat anymore, which opens up his speed game. #51 is hitting over .500 in June and July has been historically his best month. He was down this past week, only recieved about 11 hits in the last six games. I wonder if he's eating Chicken before every game ?

[dl4060]

Boggs was a great hitter. When he drove the ball, he was that much better, which makes the slappy, dinker, stuff work. Much like Ichiro. When Suzuki drives the ball, they can't cheat anymore, which opens up his speed game. #51 is hitting over .500 in June and July has been historically his best month. He was down this past week, only recieved about 11 hits in the last six games. I wonder if he's eating Chicken before every game ?

That's great that you remember Boggs' pregame meal. I remember an SI article which amazed me, wish I still had it. It described Boggs' pregame ritual, and how he took specific numbers of steps onto the field to take batting practice, and how the timing of his entry on the field was exact, to the level of "at 5:18 he gets into the cage..." Pretty amazing stuff. Superstition and OCD on a whole different level.