Adam Dunn

[Sockeye]

He's 26 and in his 6th season. I would like to get some thoughts on his career thus far and if possible some insight on where you think his career totals will end up? I know this calls for a lot of speculation. So I'll be the first to throw some projections out there.

I think he could very well end up with

Games 2644
At-Bats 9084
Runs 1680
Hits 2256
Doubles 508
Triples 24
Home Runs 632
RBI's 1496
Stolen Bases 164
Walks 1848
AVG .248
OBP .383
SLG .518

[digglahhh]

4th most homeruns of all time, (5th if you assume A-Rod) finishes with more than that, sixth if Pujols goes non-stop.

What tool do you use for projections, Sockeye. Do you just multiply a player's average season by the amount of seasons he'll play if he plays til 40 or something?

Dunn is a big time homerun hitter, a great OBP guy, and if he stays healthy he could put up some impressive power numbers over his career.

With that said 600+ is a pretty bold prediction.

True value aside, the HOF would be hard pressed to elect anybody with a .248 career BA.


What say you about, David Wright, Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Tex, Michael Young, Miguel Cabrera...

I mean if we can legitimately discuss the candidacy of any young player with only a few seasons in...

[Naliamegod]

To early to know

[Honus Wagner Rules]

4th most homeruns of all time, (5th if you assume A-Rod) finishes with more than that, sixth if Pujols goes non-stop.

What tool do you use for projections, Sockeye. Do you just multiply a player's average season by the amount of seasons he'll play if he plays til 40 or something?

Dunn is a big time homerun hitter, a great OBP guy, and if he stays healthy he could put up some impressive power numbers over his career.

With that said 600+ is a pretty bold prediction.

True value aside, the HOF would be hard pressed to elect anybody with a .248 career BA.


What say you about, David Wright, Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Tex, Michael Young, Miguel Cabrera...

I mean if we can legitimately discuss the candidacy of any young player with only a few seasons in...

This is true. I guess it's possible if a.248 hitter played Willie Mays-Andruw Jones type defense. But Dunn doesn't.

[Sockeye]

[QUOTE=digglahhh What say you about, David Wright, Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Tex, Michael Young, Miguel Cabrera...

I mean if we can legitimately discuss the candidacy of any young player with only a few seasons in...[/QUOTE]

I admit that it's hard to project statistics for players at such a young age.
That being said it's hard to imagine Adam Dunn (barring injury) ever hitting less than 35-40 home runs in a season for at least the next 7-10 years. His .248 career average isn't as important since his OBP is so high. So he would be the rare case of a player that could get in the HOF with a .248 average as long as he maintains his .383 OBP.

Coming into this season Dunn had played in 661 games with 2271 at-bats.

I believe it's too early to project the stats for

David Wright: 229 games, 838 at-bats
Travis Hafner: 391 games, 1321 at-bats
Victor Martinez: 349 games, 1258 at-bats
Miguel Cabrera: 405 games, 1530 at-bats

Michael Young's projections would be something like this

2228 games
8955 at-bats
1404 runs
2660 hits
450 doubles
104 triples
239 home runs
1118 RBI's
117 stolen bases
614 walks
.297 AVG
.341 OBP
.451 SLG

Not HOF worthy numbers if you ask me.

[Sockeye]

This is true. I guess it's possible if a.248 hitter played Willie Mays-Andruw Jones type defense. But Dunn doesn't.

Would you rather have a player with a .300 AVG/.350 OBP or a player with a .248 AVG/.383 OBP? Give me the later anyday!

[digglahhh]

My comment about the BA was related to the HOF voters and their voting patterns. I'm aware of the value of OBP, thanks...:rolleyes:

If you are going to start threads asking if players will be elected as opposed to whether or not they will be HOF worthy it would be prudent to consider the categories that the voters traditionally give a lot of weight to.

[RuthMayBond]

Would you rather have a player with a .300 AVG/.350 OBP or a player with a .248 AVG/.383 OBP? Give me the later anyday!I'll try to get you the Yankees' GM job :laugh

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I admit that it's hard to project statistics for players at such a young age.
That being said it's hard to imagine Adam Dunn (barring injury) ever hitting less than 35-40 home runs in a season for at least the next 7-10 years. His .248 career average isn't as important since his OBP is so high. So he would be the rare case of a player that could get in the HOF with a .248 average as long as he maintains his .383 OBP.

Coming into this season Dunn had played in 661 games with 2271 at-bats.

I believe it's too early to project the stats for

David Wright: 229 games, 838 at-bats
Travis Hafner: 391 games, 1321 at-bats
Victor Martinez: 349 games, 1258 at-bats
Miguel Cabrera: 405 games, 1530 at-bats

Michael Young's projections would be something like this

2228 games
8955 at-bats
1404 runs
2660 hits
450 doubles
104 triples
239 home runs
1118 RBI's
117 stolen bases
614 walks
.297 AVG
.341 OBP
.451 SLG

Not HOF worthy numbers if you ask me.
Not HoF worthy for a 2B/SS?

[Sockeye]

My comment about the BA was related to the HOF voters and their voting patterns. I'm aware of the value of OBP, thanks...:rolleyes:

If you are going to start threads asking if players will be elected as opposed to whether or not they will be HOF worthy it would be prudent to consider the categories that the voters traditionally give a lot of weight to.

I'm not sure there has ever been a player quite like Dunn to be considered for the HOF. Perhaps the closest comparison would be Harmon Killebrew with 573 HR/.256 AVG/.376 OBP. That's also the second lowest batting average of any position player in the HOF after the infamous Ray Schalk and his .253 AVG. But if Dunn hits 600+ home runs with a .380+ OBP I can't imagine him not making the HOF no matter what his career average is.

[leecemark]

--Killebrew's BA was compiled primarily in the 1960s when league BA's were at an all time low. He was a better hitter for average (and a much better player) than Adam Dunn. Dunn is an updated version of Dave Kingman. If he actually does hit 600 HR it would be hard to see him not getting elected, but that is just wild speculation at this point. Barring serious injury(s) he is a decent bet for 500, but if so he would likely be to the 500 HR club what Kong is to the 400 - the first to join it and not make the Hall (assuming someone doesn't beat Dunn to the honor;) ).

[jalbright]

He's 26 and in his 6th season. I would like to get some thoughts on his career thus far and if possible some insight on where you think his career totals will end up? I know this calls for a lot of speculation. So I'll be the first to throw some projections out there.

I think he could very well end up with

Games 2644
At-Bats 9084
Runs 1680
Hits 2256
Doubles 508
Triples 24
Home Runs 632
RBI's 1496
Stolen Bases 164
Walks 1848
AVG .248
OBP .383
SLG .518

It's very early to deal with Dunn, but I have my doubts he'll be able to age effectively maintaining that combination of low average and high walks and power. If he can't, the whole projection would vary greatly depending on whether he raised his average (if he could get it to near .260, he could manage a Killebrew-type case) or whether the walks or power dropped (the house of cards likely collapses then). Of course, it could wind up being a mix of these things, which makes it impossible to guess.

BTW, I get an OBP of .375 from the numbers projected--are you also projecting HBP? If not, he needs just shy of 2000 walks to get to .383 with that many AB and H, and I can't see him in Ted Williams/Rickey Henderson territory in walks.

[digglahhh]

Kingman is a bit harsh, because Kingman didn't walk.

A natural McGwire seems more like it.

[Francoeurstein]

TO early to tell. He could be like a modern day Reggie Jackson. :coffee

[Edgartohof]

Really now, are you going to go through this whole process for EVERY player with 5+ years of experience? Not everyplayer is meant to go into the HOF you know.

Plus, you talk about Dunn's GREAT OBP, well, it would be great if he had a league average BA, but he doesn't. His OBP hasn't even scratched the top 10 in his league, let alone the top 100 all-time, in fact, it's probably closer to 25th or so out of active players. Don't get me wrong, he is great at taking walks, but because his BA is so low, they only make is OBP good, not great.

I'd also like to mention his SO's as well, and how he is on pace for another 190 SO season and has a shot to be the first with 200+ SO's in a season

So he is a good power hitting LF/1B, with a horrible BA (21 points below league average, heck, Reggie was 6 points above, and Killebrew was only 3 points under, and they both played a LOT longer than Dunn has), is not great defensively, and doesn't run the bases well, and strikes out a TON, this is not sounding that good to me, but then again, I'm not insane, so why should it.

[justice22]

WHy ARE WE DOING THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i hate ANY post that has players "projected" stats. ugh, by that regard let's have some fun with!

brad hawpe of the colorado rockies could reasonably end up with these numbers based on this seasons stats

Games-3142
At Bats-9867
Doubles-413
Triples-284
Home Runs-729
RBI's-1896

oh, and he only made 4 errors in his career.
So do you guys think he's hall of fame material?

[Sockeye]

I'll try to get you the Yankees' GM job :laugh

Would have to pass on the Yankees GM job. Now if the Angels GM spot opens up be sure to give me a call.

[Sockeye]

Not HoF worthy for a 2B/SS?

It would be boarderline but it wouldn't get my vote. Looks like a poor man's Craig Biggio if you ask me.

[Sockeye]

--Killebrew's BA was compiled primarily in the 1960s when league BA's were at an all time low. He was a better hitter for average (and a much better player) than Adam Dunn. Dunn is an updated version of Dave Kingman. If he actually does hit 600 HR it would be hard to see him not getting elected, but that is just wild speculation at this point. Barring serious injury(s) he is a decent bet for 500, but if so he would likely be to the 500 HR club what Kong is to the 400 - the first to join it and not make the Hall (assuming someone doesn't beat Dunn to the honor;) ).

Let me get this straight..You are comparing Adam Dunn to Dave Kingman?
Well lets see

Kingman: .236/.302/.478
Dunn: .248/.383/.518
Killebrew: .256/.376/.509

Hmmm which set of numbers are closer? Next you'll be comparing Dunn to Juan Pierre...yep their practically twins. Just like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito.

[Edgartohof]

Hmmm which set of numbers are closer? Next you'll be comparing Dunn to Juan Pierre...yep their practically twins. Just like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito.

Twins! Twins! All I'm seeing are Twins! :laugh

[Sockeye]

It's very early to deal with Dunn, but I have my doubts he'll be able to age effectively maintaining that combination of low average and high walks and power. If he can't, the whole projection would vary greatly depending on whether he raised his average (if he could get it to near .260, he could manage a Killebrew-type case) or whether the walks or power dropped (the house of cards likely collapses then). Of course, it could wind up being a mix of these things, which makes it impossible to guess.

BTW, I get an OBP of .375 from the numbers projected--are you also projecting HBP? If not, he needs just shy of 2000 walks to get to .383 with that many AB and H, and I can't see him in Ted Williams/Rickey Henderson territory in walks.

I'm projecting 160 HBP and usually a young player with a good eye doesn't all of a sudden lose it. In fact usually speaking a player's walk total increases with age. Not suggesting it will happen with Dunn. Hard to imagine him drawing more walks than the 107-128. This season he's on pace for 150+ so I suppose it's possible. I've also heard it said that if Dunn was less selective and swung at the first pitch more often that his hit and home run total would increase. Considering he has averaged a home run ever 14.3 AB's that is scary.

[Sockeye]

Kingman is a bit harsh, because Kingman didn't walk.

A natural McGwire seems more like it.

McGwire didn't walk nearly as often at Dunn's age.

McGwire walks totals by age

23-71
24-76
25-83
26-110
27-93
28-90

Dunn walks totals by age

22-128
23-74 (116 games)
24-108
25-114

[Sockeye]

TO early to tell. He could be like a modern day Reggie Jackson. :coffee

Reggie hit for a little better average (.262) but didn't draw nearly as many walks. 100+ walks only once in his career while Dunn has already done is 3 times. As a result his OBP was .356. His slugging % was .490 compared to Dunn's .518. Jackson had great power averaging one home run every 17.5 AB's while Dunn's averaging one home run every 14.3 AB's.

[baseballPAP]

--Killebrew's BA was compiled primarily in the 1960s when league BA's were at an all time low. He was a better hitter for average (and a much better player) than Adam Dunn. Dunn is an updated version of Dave Kingman. If he actually does hit 600 HR it would be hard to see him not getting elected, but that is just wild speculation at this point. Barring serious injury(s) he is a decent bet for 500, but if so he would likely be to the 500 HR club what Kong is to the 400 - the first to join it and not make the Hall (assuming someone doesn't beat Dunn to the honor;) ).
I believe that Palmeiro guy beat him to it....I have a hard time imagining the HOF letting him in, magic numbers or not.

[Sockeye]

This is going to be enjoyable picking this apart piece by piece. So lets "git r dunn"

Really now, are you going to go through this whole process for EVERY player with 5+ years of experience? Not everyplayer is meant to go into the HOF you know.

Correct you are. That's why I'm only doing the future HOFer. The absolutel cream of the crop.

Plus, you talk about Dunn's GREAT OBP, well, it would be great if he had a league average BA, but he doesn't. His OBP hasn't even scratched the top 10 in his league, let alone the top 100 all-time, in fact, it's probably closer to 25th or so out of active players. Don't get me wrong, he is great at taking walks, but because his BA is so low, they only make is OBP good, not great.

Actually what I'm doing is showing how his low batting average isn't all that important due to his high walks total and very good OBP. In fact by comparison Hank Aaron with a batting average of .305 had an OBP of .374. My point is very simple. OBP is MORE important than batting average.

I'd also like to mention his SO's as well, and how he is on pace for another 190 SO season and has a shot to be the first with 200+ SO's in a season

He does strikeout a ton. Reggie Jackson stuckout a total of 2597 times with an OBP of .356. Didn't seem to cost him a spot in the lineup or a spot of the HOF for that matter.

So he is a good power hitting LF/1B, with a horrible BA (21 points below league average, heck, Reggie was 6 points above, and Killebrew was only 3 points under, and they both played a LOT longer than Dunn has), is not great defensively, and doesn't run the bases well, and strikes out a TON, this is not sounding that good to me, but then again, I'm not insane, so why should it.

This isn't about his chances if he retired today. It's about what we can reasonably project him to do over the course of his career. Given his first 5 seasons as long as he stays fairly healthy he'd going to put up huge career numbers no way around it. Not every player needs to rely on defense and base running to earn a spot on the HOF. If so then guys like Killebrew, Stargell, McCovey, Mathews, soon McGwire, etc would never stand a chance at making the HOF. Insane? Nah....more like crazy like a fox!!

[Sockeye]

WHy ARE WE DOING THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i hate ANY post that has players "projected" stats. ugh, by that regard let's have some fun with!

brad hawpe of the colorado rockies could reasonably end up with these numbers based on this seasons stats

Games-3142
At Bats-9867
Doubles-413
Triples-284
Home Runs-729
RBI's-1896

oh, and he only made 4 errors in his career.
So do you guys think he's hall of fame material?

There no difference between putting up good numbers for one month as opposed to putting up good numbers over the course of 5 years huh? Have you ever heard of a "track record"?

Given the fact that Dunn has put up such numbers over "5 seasons" shows there is a likeliness of it to continue. Anybody can get hot for one month.

[CJMorello]

Iam new these forums so i don't like to be critical, but. Where do people come up with these "do u think he will be a HOF" posts. It makes for interesting debate if the player has 10 or more years of playing high caliber ball IE. Manny, A-Rod, etc. In the example of Adam Dunn it is much to early to tell. And highly unlikely he will but up the numbers given for his career projections in this debate.

[538280]

With many of your other polls, Sockeye, it is simply too early to tell. Dunn has a chance, but it will depend on how he ages, and we just don't know how he will age.

What's with all these threads about active players? I don't see the point of it. It is best to assess whether or not a player is a HOFer at the end of his career, so I ask people to please stop posting threads about active players in which the real answer is just "too early to tell". It is impossible and completely immature to talk about a player as a HOFer through 6 seasons.

[rockin500]

stop for the love of god! STOP! these are getting ridicilous. You cant do these projections this early on. this kind of inanity brings down this whole forum.

unless he has nine or more seasons (basically making him ultra close to the ten year elgibility) these shouldnt be brought up at all.

[W_Marone]

as with many other polls, way to early to decide if Dunn is gonna make the hall of fame, who knows injuries or various other things could could occur.

[RuthMayBond]

Would have to pass on the Yankees GM job. Now if the Angels GM spot opens up be sure to give me a call.That would have been great right before, uh, 2002

[RuthMayBond]

yep their practically twins. Just like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito.Boy are Minnesota fans gonna be disappointed

[RedSoxVT92]

Yes as the others said please stop with these polls. You really cant tell what type of career a player will have only 5-8 seasons into there career. Way too many varibles such as serious injury or a sharp decline. Discuss players for the hall whos career is already done or almost done because these are way too premature.

[jalbright]

I'm projecting 160 HBP and usually a young player with a good eye doesn't all of a sudden lose it. In fact usually speaking a player's walk total increases with age. Not suggesting it will happen with Dunn. Hard to imagine him drawing more walks than the 107-128. This season he's on pace for 150+ so I suppose it's possible. I've also heard it said that if Dunn was less selective and swung at the first pitch more often that his hit and home run total would increase. Considering he has averaged a home run ever 14.3 AB's that is scary.

The problem is, as James notes, plate patience and power are more "old player" skills (particularly when yoked together), and since his "young player" skills (defense and average) are at best subpar, there's reason to believe he may not age well. If his average drops 20 points, he's going to be fighting for a job. Also, if he gets plunked as often as you project, the likelihood of injury should rise, and an injury, especially a beaning, could easily ruin his chances.

You noted yourself it's darned early, and I want to see more out of him to assess which way(s) he's headed. He could make it, and he could vanish from the HOF debate without a trace at this point. Like most other posters, I'm a lot more comfortable with discussions of this type when the range of possibilities is much smaller.

Let's face it, you put far more faith in your projections than most of the rest of us do combined. I probably regard your and James' efforts more highly than most here, and I regard them as amusing educated guesses, but put little real stock in them, especially for young players.

Jim Albright

[csh19792001]

Yes as the others said please stop with these polls. You really cant tell what type of career a player will have only 5-8 seasons into there career. Way too many varibles such as serious injury or a sharp decline. Discuss players for the hall whos career is already done or almost done because these are way too premature.

Exactly. Just ask the guy in the picture you used as your avatar. ;)

[Joltin' Joe]

Would you rather have a player with a .300 AVG/.350 OBP or a player with a .248 AVG/.383 OBP? Give me the later anyday!

How can you make such a strong assumption with just those two stats?

Assuming they both get 600 PAs...

Player A: 167 Hits, 43 BB

Player B: 122 Hits, 108 BB

Even if every hit is only a single...

Player A: 58.45 Runs Created

Player B: 46.8 Runs Created

Just from those two stats of BA & OBP, it would favor the guy with the higher BA, & lower OBP.

Of course the true judgement would have to be reserved until the Slug is revealed...

I mean it could be .300/.350/.632 VS .248/.383/.533
or it could be .300/.350/.432 VS .248/.383/.515...you don't know. But just on the BA & OBP you gave us, the first player is better.

[W_Marone]

one thing i know about Dunn though, he can hit, anyone like the nickname bid donkey for him? I dont like it, but thats his nickname on baseaball tonight now.

[justice22]

i think we shuold be discussing people like edgar martinez, roberto alomar, barry larkin, et cetera. we can even start considering those who are certainly having the down turn of their career, id example julio franco, barry bonds, jeff bagwell, craig biggio, et cetera.

i'm a reds fan, and a fan of dunn. personally i think he will get into the hall of fame. i think he'll easily get into the 500 hr's club, which is a ticket into the hall. but what if he runs into the fence tomorrow and sprains his acl and doesn't quite get his power back. or what if it turns out he's juiced more then a vineyard in italy. i just think it's inane to project stats and say that he deserves an election

[CanadianFan]

This sockeye cat is extremly annoying. Always seems to be creating numerous stupid threads about players with absolutely no shot at the hof.

What's next mr. sock, a case for robinson cano ?

[runningshoes]

Speaking of annoying, anyone check out the Gary Sheffield thread lately? ;)

[Windy City Fan]

Speaking of annoying, anyone check out the Gary Sheffield thread lately? ;)

:laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh

[ESPNFan]

Speaking of annoying, anyone check out the Gary Sheffield thread lately? ;)

LOL man if there wasn't a poster (or Posters) that typified your sig then I don't know who does. :laugh

[Sockeye]

How can you make such a strong assumption with just those two stats?

Assuming they both get 600 PAs...

Player A: 167 Hits, 43 BB

Player B: 122 Hits, 108 BB

Even if every hit is only a single...

Player A: 58.45 Runs Created

Player B: 46.8 Runs Created

Just from those two stats of BA & OBP, it would favor the guy with the higher BA, & lower OBP.

Of course the true judgement would have to be reserved until the Slug is revealed...

I mean it could be .300/.350/.632 VS .248/.383/.533
or it could be .300/.350/.432 VS .248/.383/.515...you don't know. But just on the BA & OBP you gave us, the first player is better.

Adam Dunn has a total of 443 runs created in 5 seasons. Has a total of 235 runs created over the past two seasons. His RC/27 is 6.78. His RC/27 has been 7.15 or higher in 3 of his 5 seasons. And his career OPS+ is 132. And this has all been done before entering his prime years which is usually 26-32.
Given a slight increase in numbers from 26-32 or even if he maintains his current rate of production by age 32 he's already going to have HOF worthy numbers no matter how he ages.

[csh19792001]

Speaking of annoying, anyone check out the Gary Sheffield thread lately? ;)

:laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh

LOL man if there wasn't a poster (or Posters) that typified your sig then I don't know who does. :laugh

It's time to shut this down.

Exclamation points, people on this board generally play nice. You're not, and you know it. If you treat others with courtesy, you'll get it back. Please do so.

Time for you to run and hide (once again) "Mr. Exclamation points". Looks like you need a new screename to hide behind and spew your same trite old garbage from (you've exhausted this one and everyone knows about your plagiarism, to boot).

You come here just to insult people. You aren't wanted, go pollute another forum with your cutting, pasting, and idle platitudes about steroids and "all cheating being equivalent". Try a board full of full of baseball chalatans, because the people here aren't buying the crap you throw up there and hope will stick.

[RuthMayBond]

Adam Dunn has a total of 443 runs created in 5 seasons. Has a total of 235 runs created over the past two seasons. His RC/27 is 6.78. His RC/27 has been 7.15 or higher in 3 of his 5 seasons. And his career OPS+ is 132. And this has all been done before entering his prime years which is usually 26-32.
Given a slight increase in numbers from 26-32 or even if he maintains his current rate of production by age 32 he's already going to have HOF worthy numbers no matter how he ages.
Pete Reiser, Rico Carty, Fred Lynn, Tony Oliva, Darryl Strawberry, Dale Alexander, Nomar, Dwight Gooden, Herb Score, Fernando Valenzuela, Don Newcombe would all like a word with you

[Sockeye]

Pete Reiser, Rico Carty, Fred Lynn, Tony Oliva, Darryl Strawberry, Dale Alexander, Nomar, Dwight Gooden, Herb Score, Fernando Valenzuela, Don Newcombe would all like a word with you

How many of those playuers ever hit 40+ home runs? Make that 40+ home runs two years in a row. Likely 3 by the time this season is over. All by the age of 26....Hmmm

[RuthMayBond]

How many of those playuers ever hit 40+ home runs? Make that 40+ home runs two years in a row. Likely 3 by the time this season is over. All by the age of 26....HmmmHow many of them played in the 2000s, with home in the Great American Blasting Pad?

[csh19792001]

How many of them played in the 2000s, with home in the Great American Blasting Pad?

LOL. Good one RMB. I like that even better than the "Great American Bandbox". :o

[Sockeye]

How many of them played in the 2000s, with home in the Great American Blasting Pad?

So if he hits 600+ home runs he shouldn't be in the HOF because of the era and ballpark he played in?

[RuthMayBond]

So if he hits 600+ home runs he shouldn't be in the HOF because of the era and ballpark he played in?
#1, he has not ALREADY hit 600+ HR
#2, I'm saying park factors should be taken into consideration, like for Jim Rice. Isn't it about time we started a poll about him?

[Captain Cold Nose]

##2, I'm saying park factors should be taken into consideration, like for Jim Rice. Isn't it about time we started a poll about him?
This being Wednesday and all.

[KCGHOST]

Too many things could go wrong yet that would prevent Dunn from being enshrined. However, There are 15 players who are no longer active who had 150 HR's through age 25. Ten are in the HoF. If the remaining 5 (Trosky, Horner, Conseco, Conigliaro, and Juan Gone) only JGone has any hope of getting elected. This implies Dunn has a 67% chance of getting to the HoF.

[RuthMayBond]

Too many things could go wrong yet that would prevent Dunn from being enshrined. However, There are 15 players who are no longer active who had 150 HR's through age 25. Ten are in the HoF. If the remaining 5 (Trosky, Horner, Conseco, Conigliaro, and Juan Gone) only JGone has any hope of getting elected. This implies Dunn has a 67% chance of getting to the HoF.Unless the anti-SABR crowd is sitting on the voting committee

[Sockeye]

#1, he has not ALREADY hit 600+ HR
#2, I'm saying park factors should be taken into consideration, like for Jim Rice. Isn't it about time we started a poll about him?

Notice the little worth "IF" Barring injury or a complete falling off the cliff numbers wise Dunn should hit in excess of 600 home runs. Even if his batting average drops from his current .248 level as long as his OBP remains above .350 (right now it's at .383) he's still going to be a productive player and will have a spot in the lineup.

[Sockeye]

Too many things could go wrong yet that would prevent Dunn from being enshrined. However, There are 15 players who are no longer active who had 150 HR's through age 25. Ten are in the HoF. If the remaining 5 (Trosky, Horner, Conseco, Conigliaro, and Juan Gone) only JGone has any hope of getting elected. This implies Dunn has a 67% chance of getting to the HoF.

67% chance...that's better than 50/50 so the answer to the poll question at this point in time should be "yes" it is more likely than not that he will make the HOF.

[Captain Cold Nose]

67% chance...that's better than 50/50 so the answer to the poll question at this point in time should be "yes" it is more likely than not that he will make the HOF.
The criteria behind that is hardly convincing.

[RuthMayBond]

Notice the little worth "IF" Barring injury or a complete falling off the cliff numbers wise Dunn should hit in excess of 600 home runs.You're saying IF he continues to hit at his current rate AND IF he has a long career. Not exactly rocket science, but not exactly a given that he can do both

[rockin500]

you know, sockeye, none of your predictions have much thought to them. So do us all a favor and stop with the nonsense.

[Captain Cold Nose]

you know, sockeye, none of your predictions have much thought to them. So do us all a favor and stop with the nonsense.
My suggestion is just put him on ignore. Unless he gets abusive, he's not doing anything too troubling.

[Joltin' Joe]

Adam Dunn has a total of 443 runs created in 5 seasons. Has a total of 235 runs created over the past two seasons. His RC/27 is 6.78. His RC/27 has been 7.15 or higher in 3 of his 5 seasons. And his career OPS+ is 132. And this has all been done before entering his prime years which is usually 26-32.
Given a slight increase in numbers from 26-32 or even if he maintains his current rate of production by age 32 he's already going to have HOF worthy numbers no matter how he ages.


But what does that have to do with my post? I was just replying to your post where you stated that .248/.383 is better than .300/.350...

[dl4060]

Too early to tell, so I will not vote one way or another. If he can finnish with those projections he should go, regardless of his BA.

[Fuzzy Bear]

He's 26 and in his 6th season. I would like to get some thoughts on his career thus far and if possible some insight on where you think his career totals will end up? I know this calls for a lot of speculation. So I'll be the first to throw some projections out there.

I think he could very well end up with

Games 2644
At-Bats 9084
Runs 1680
Hits 2256
Doubles 508
Triples 24
Home Runs 632
RBI's 1496
Stolen Bases 164
Walks 1848
AVG .248
OBP .383
SLG .518

I'm less dismissive of Dunn making these projections than I thought I'd be. I still don't think he'll hit them, but his chances of getting to 500 HRs are pretty good:

(A) Dunn is an EXTREME power hitter with great plate discipline, whom many pitchers will not pitch to in crucial situations.

(B) While he's missed time with injuries in the past, Dunn has been durable this season, and over the last two previous seasons.

(C) Dunn's current HR pace, coupled with his previous two seasons, indicates that 40 HRs per season is his norm now; it's not just a good year. Dunn is easily on pace for 40-plus jacks this year.

Dunn, of course, is the prototypical young-player-with-old-player-skills, so he's not going to be projected to age well. He doesn't have great speed, and he doesn't hit for much of an average. He's a .247 lifetime hitter; that's terrible, even with his OBP. When Dunn gets older, he'll get to the point where he's going to struggle to hit .220. Then, pitchers will throw strikes to him, because he won't get a HR often enough, and he'll do very little on offense other than hit HRs.

Dunn could be the first player to hit 500 jacks and not make the Hall. The low BA will be a hangup, and many will say that all Dunn did was hit HRs; he did nothing else. Somebody is going to be the first 500 HR guy outside the HOF, and it's going to be somebody LIKE Dunn, if not Dunn, personally. Dunn has a chance to hit 600 HRs, but he has a better chance of hitting 500 HRs and having a .235 BA lifetime. That won't cut it.

[Outta Here]

I really like Dunn, but it's an unfortunate NO for me :(

[Fuzzy Bear]

I really like Dunn, but it's an unfortunate NO for me :(

Dunn is kind of the new McGwire, except that McGwire didn't start out hitting in the .240s. He fell down to that level, before finding himself. Dunn is stuck there; he's kind of the new Greg Vaughn. A little better than Greg, and younger, too, but the same model.

[flash143817]

Obviously too early to tell. But if he maintains his current rate I think he stands a good chance of making it into the HOF. But even though he will be worthy, his low BA will keep him out by sportswriters, who worship that stat.

There really is no precedent for whether he will or not though because no hitter has ever had such an extreme combo of BB/HR/K at such a young age. I wish I could find the article I read just a couple days ago, but basically, Dunn is the only player in history to rank in the top 10 in all 3 categories of BB rate, HR rate, and K rate through the age of 24, which was 2 years ago for him. He is the current undisputed king of the Three True Outcomes. That alone should be worthy of enshrinement.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Dunn's having an excellent year for himself; he's projecting himself forward as a potential HOF candidate. He's helping his case significantly this year.

Of course, that's a qualified assessment. Dunn is a two-trick pony, even now; he smashes a homer, or he walks. He whiffs a lot, of course, but he's not GIDPing as much as Jim Rice. He's producing at a rate where we can say that 40 HRs per year are his current NORM, and not just a good season. He's consistent in HRs and walks from year to year, and is in what ought to be his prime seasons (he's 26 this year).

Dunn is a young player with old player skills, so I don't expect him to be around at age 40. He could have 500 jacks at age 35, however. I think Dunn needs the 500 jacks for the HOF, but he's giving that a good run, and is even money to get there. He's helping himself this year. He needs to do what he's doing now EVERY YEAR until age 35 to have a good chance at the HOF.

And he needs to do some things that gain him recognition. Dunn's not likely to win the MVP, but he's only got one (1) all-star game selection, and that's hurting him.

[538280]

I don't think there is anything HOF about Adam Dunn except inflated power numbers. He's a bad defensive outfielder who isn't even that great of hitter in the context of this time. He has a 128 OPS+, in mid career.

[Erik Bedard]

Dunn could be the first player to hit 500 jacks and not make the Hall.

Palmeiro and McGwire?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Palmeiro and McGwire?

Both will go in.

I predict McGwire goes in next year.

Palmiero isn't even eligible yet.

Dunn's a long way from the HOF, but he's no Dave Kingman. He hits HRs and he walks a LOT. That's a pretty simple skill set, but it works. His OBP will be high enough that he'll get in with 500 jacks, if he gets there.

[538280]

Dunn's a long way from the HOF, but he's no Dave Kingman. He hits HRs and he walks a LOT. That's a pretty simple skill set, but it works. His OBP will be high enough that he'll get in with 500 jacks, if he gets there.

The problem is that in the context of this era he's not a truly great slugger, no matter what counting number of HRs he puts up. His BA is also far below league average which makes it hard to have a great SLG. Right now he has a .518 SLG compared to .439 league, 118 relative SLG. That doesn't hold up to the all time great power hitters at all, and that's a mid career figure.

[Erik Bedard]

Both will go in.

With the current stance of the media against steroid users, I think it's doubtful at best that either one will get in, especially not Palmeiro, who actually tested positive, something McGwire never did.

Back on topic: I doubt Dunn will get in either. The writers probably won't be able to get over his low BA, and they'll ignore the fact that OBP tells a more accurate tale, and won't let him in. Of course, if he hits 600 HRs, I can't see him not getting in (though if he does, it'll probably be bemoaned by some as the worst selection in history).

[Westlake]

This being Wednesday and all.

:laugh I needed a laugh tonight. Thanks Scott. Only took me 15 months.

[CubsFanJohn]

Too early to make a real decisions, ask me in another 5-10 Years.

[willshad]

An interesting case. Headed for his 5th straight 40 home run season, and will havbe close to 300 at age 28. compareble to Killerbrew, but also comparable to Strawberry and canseco. Also has almost no value outside of his hitting. If he continues this for another few years is he a possible hall of famer?

[1905 Giants]

Unfortunately, he can't field (as you said), only has 1 top ten finish in either Slugging or On-Base Pencentage (#10 in 2004 in Slugging), and only twice in the top ten in OPS+ (9th in 2004, 10th in 2007). He's only been an All-Star once, and he's only finished as high as 26th in the MVP race (although it could be said he has had stiff competition).

Post - Eddie Mathews and Ernie Banks.

[willshad]

If he has, say 7 or 8 consecutive 40 homer seasons it would be hard to keep him out I think.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Voters can ignore bad defense. What they will not ignore is a very low batting average. Dunn is at .247 for his career. It will almost certainly drop if he hangs around long enough to hit 500 HRs. Would the voters induct a sub .240 hitter into the HoF? I seriously doubt it.

[willshad]

Voters can ignore bad defense. What they will not ignore is a very low batting average. Dunn is at .247 for his career. It will almost certainly drop if he hangs around long enough to hit 500 HRs. Would the voters induct a sub .240 hitter into the HoF? I seriously doubt it.

True, but what if he manages to get 600 home runs?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

True, but what if he manages to get 600 home runs?

Good question. I have no idea. But I suspect Dunn doesn't have the skills to last long enough to hit 600 HRs.

[jalbright]

time for a merge.

[jjpm74]

Voters can ignore bad defense. What they will not ignore is a very low batting average. Dunn is at .247 for his career. It will almost certainly drop if he hangs around long enough to hit 500 HRs. Would the voters induct a sub .240 hitter into the HoF? I seriously doubt it.

He needs at least .250 for his career given past trends and the fact that guys like Darrell Evans and Graig Nettles who had a lot more going for them than just an ability to hit home runs aren't in Cooperstown.

[Chickazoola]

I think Dunn is a great player, but he won't make the Hall without 500 homers at least, and I am not entirely sure he will get there.

[dgarza]

Good question. I have no idea. But I suspect Dunn doesn't have the skills do last long enough to hit 600 HRs.He might even get board with MLB before then.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think Dunn is a great player, but he won't make the Hall without 500 homers at least, and I am not entirely sure he will get there.

Dunn is a very unique player; he is, perhaps the greatest low-average slugger in history. (Harmon Killebrew's average was higher than Dunn's, plus Killer played in a low average era; hence his average was 3 points below league average, while Dunn's is 23 points below league at this writing.) Despite this, his OWP is at the level to where a HOF induction is not ridiculous, plus he CONSISTENTLY cranks out 40-plus HRs every year.

"Consistently" is the key word. Dunn is often compared to Dave Kingman and Greg Vaughn, but neither of these guys cranked out 40 HRs as consistently as Dunn has; indeed, it's hard to think of anyone in baseball history who has done so, short of some of the very greatest hitters ever. (Dunn's certainly not in THAT category, but he has certainly sustained great home run production, and doing this has made him an extremely valuable offensive player.)

There is no precedent for a guy like Dunn lasting until age 40 and retaining much of his ability. His defense is not stellar, so he'll have to keep it going on at the plate to stay in the game. Hitting .250, Dunn is an extremely valuable ballplayer, but how valuable is he hitting .220?

The answer to that question is twofold: In the short-run, Dunn is extremely valuable if he hits .220 because of his strength and plate discipline. In the long run, if .220 is Dunn's established level of ability, it's a sign to pitchers that they can throw him strikes and he'll be more likely to whiff than HR, so pitchers will become more willing to challenge him over time, rather than nibble and give up walks. If Dunn can hit 40-45 jacks per year while hitting UNDER .230 (which is where he's headed), he will be the first player in baseball history to do so. Officially, I doubt he can do that and make it to 600 HRs, but he's unique enough to where I think that COULD happen. I just don't think it WILL happen.

[Texas Rangers]

On a related question, do you guys think Prince Fielder will make the HOF? I mean I know he is only in his first couple seasons, but i need to know if he will make the HOF NOW! :dance:laugh

[Cougar]

Dunn is a very unique player; he is, perhaps the greatest low-average slugger in history. (Harmon Killebrew's average was higher than Dunn's, plus Killer played in a low average era; hence his average was 3 points below league average, while Dunn's is 23 points below league at this writing.) Despite this, his OWP is at the level to where a HOF induction is not ridiculous, plus he CONSISTENTLY cranks out 40-plus HRs every year.

"Consistently" is the key word. Dunn is often compared to Dave Kingman and Greg Vaughn, but neither of these guys cranked out 40 HRs as consistently as Dunn has; indeed, it's hard to think of anyone in baseball history who has done so, short of some of the very greatest hitters ever. (Dunn's certainly not in THAT category, but he has certainly sustained great home run production, and doing this has made him an extremely valuable offensive player.)

There is no precedent for a guy like Dunn lasting until age 40 and retaining much of his ability. His defense is not stellar, so he'll have to keep it going on at the plate to stay in the game. Hitting .250, Dunn is an extremely valuable ballplayer, but how valuable is he hitting .220?

The answer to that question is twofold: In the short-run, Dunn is extremely valuable if he hits .220 because of his strength and plate discipline. In the long run, if .220 is Dunn's established level of ability, it's a sign to pitchers that they can throw him strikes and he'll be more likely to whiff than HR, so pitchers will become more willing to challenge him over time, rather than nibble and give up walks. If Dunn can hit 40-45 jacks per year while hitting UNDER .230 (which is where he's headed), he will be the first player in baseball history to do so. Officially, I doubt he can do that and make it to 600 HRs, but he's unique enough to where I think that COULD happen. I just don't think it WILL happen.

I think this is about right. Dunn is so hard to peg because we've never quite seen his like before.

To me, he's like a better version / more modern version of Gorman Thomas, who led the AL in HR in 1979 and 1982.

Thomas struck out a ton, took walks, always had a lousy BA, and was generally a smart player with a limited skill set, like Dunn. He actually played a pretty good CF despite being fairly slow afoot.

Conversely, Dunn's a pretty nifty base runner despite being lead-footed -- he scores a lot of runs and is a nice percentage base stealer. And he's been very durable.

Golly, when you've got a guy who, if current trends hold, will be sniffing 400 HR by the time he's 30 -- that's a potential HOFer. And he does have the OBP and the runs scored to go with the bashing.

I don't know...he's got to keep it up, probably longer than most, to compensate for the low BA, and it would be very nice if he could nudge it over .250 for his career, although this season won't help.

[BlueJayTime]

Dunn's batting average will most likely take a drop if he stays around to hit 500 homers, probably somwhere around .230 so I doubt he gets inducted. I wouldn't want him in anyways, not my kind of player.

[Brad Harris]

On a related question, do you guys think Prince Fielder will make the HOF? I mean I know he is only in his first couple seasons, but i need to know if he will make the HOF NOW! :dance:laugh
So long as he and dad don't hit the buffets together, he's got as good a chance as any whippersnapper his age.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Dunn's batting average will most likely take a drop if he stays around to hit 500 homers, probably somwhere around .230 so I doubt he gets inducted. I wouldn't want him in anyways, not my kind of player.

Dunn is not a lot of people's kind of player; low average sluggers rarely are.

If you ask people who was/is better, Adam Dunn or Mark Grace, how many people would say "Dunn"? Not many, I think; most would say that Mark Grace was a better player than Adam Dunn is.

Much of that is the longstanding bias against the low-average slugger in favor of the higher BA hitter that still exists. Grace's Offensive Winning Percentage for his career was .633, while Dunn's (as of now) is .670. Even if we take away Grace's last two years, he's still around .650 for his career. That's still .020 behind where Dunn is now. And Dunn is pretty consistent; for five of his eight seasons, he's been between .688 and .715 in OWP, so his current .670 level will probably rise some more before he starts to decline.

Grace may be equal to Dunn, but that's only if (A) you factor in Grace's defense, and (B) assume that Dunn will not age as well as Grace did. But some of that has to be balanced off by the fact that Dunn has played a more demanding defensive position for some of his career, and that Dunn was hitting 19 HRs in half of a major league season at age 21, while Grace didn't become a major leaguer until two months shy of age 24.

What are we going to tell Adam Dunn if he ages well enough to hit 600 HRs, and have a career OWP of, say .675? Are we going to deny him the HOF because he doesn't seem to be the HOF type? "Gee, Adam, you just don't look like Cooperstown material to me." Tim Raines has a career OWP of .665, and he played at the left end of the defensive spectrum, and people here clamor for his selection all the time, yet Dunn, according to OWP, has been an equally valuable offensive player, even a hair better.

The question becomes one of style: How important is the WAY you get to a .670 Offensive Winning Percentage. Well, it is important to an extent. In the real world, a team of nine Tim Raines' would beat a team of nine Adam Dunns more often than the other way around because of superior base hit and baserunning skills; the Adam Dunns' success is more dependent on pitchers' mistakes. So style matters. (Bill James once did an essay on this concept, called "run-element ratios", and I cannot find it in my archives; it explains why the one group would tend to beat the other group.) But does style matter so much that we discount the face value of Adam Dunn's accomplishments to something like 10 cents on the dollar? That's what some are doing.

[Brad Harris]

What are we going to tell Adam Dunn if he ages well enough to hit 600 HRs, and have a career OWP of, say .675? Are we going to deny him the HOF because he doesn't seem to be the HOF type? "Gee, Adam, you just don't look like Cooperstown material to me."
Why not? That's exactly what many of the voters do every election to any number of well-qualified candidates. :grouchy

[jalbright]

Dunn is not a lot of people's kind of player; low average sluggers rarely are.

If you ask people who was/is better, Adam Dunn or Mark Grace, how many people would say "Dunn"? Not many, I think; most would say that Mark Grace was a better player than Adam Dunn is.

Much of that is the longstanding bias against the low-average slugger in favor of the higher BA hitter that still exists. Grace's Offensive Winning Percentage for his career was .633, while Dunn's (as of now) is .670. Even if we take away Grace's last two years, he's still around .650 for his career. That's still .020 behind where Dunn is now. And Dunn is pretty consistent; for five of his eight seasons, he's been between .688 and .715 in OWP, so his current .670 level will probably rise some more before he starts to decline.

Grace may be equal to Dunn, but that's only if (A) you factor in Grace's defense, and (B) assume that Dunn will not age as well as Grace did. But some of that has to be balanced off by the fact that Dunn has played a more demanding defensive position for some of his career, and that Dunn was hitting 19 HRs in half of a major league season at age 21, while Grace didn't become a major leaguer until two months shy of age 24.

What are we going to tell Adam Dunn if he ages well enough to hit 600 HRs, and have a career OWP of, say .675? Are we going to deny him the HOF because he doesn't seem to be the HOF type? "Gee, Adam, you just don't look like Cooperstown material to me." Tim Raines has a career OWP of .665, and he played at the left end of the defensive spectrum, and people here clamor for his selection all the time, yet Dunn, according to OWP, has been an equally valuable offensive player, even a hair better.

The question becomes one of style: How important is the WAY you get to a .670 Offensive Winning Percentage. Well, it is important to an extent. In the real world, a team of nine Tim Raines' would beat a team of nine Adam Dunns more often than the other way around because of superior base hit and baserunning skills; the Adam Dunns' success is more dependent on pitchers' mistakes. So style matters. (Bill James once did an essay on this concept, called "run-element ratios", and I cannot find it in my archives; it explains why the one group would tend to beat the other group.) But does style matter so much that we discount the face value of Adam Dunn's accomplishments to something like 10 cents on the dollar? That's what some are doing.

Why would you expect Adam Dunn to raise his OWP from this point? Furthermore, he's not adding much to that with his defensive prowess.
He's very apt to slip lower in OWP--which means his sole way in will be through longevity and something like 600 HR. I don't think the voters should behave the way they do, but rejecting Dunn even in the circumstances you outline would be perfectly consistent with their pronounced reluctance to accept players with sub .250 averages, especially those not noted for their glovework. That said, if he manages what you suggest, he's far more deserving of consideration than most folks seem to think.

I remember the run-element stuff. Probably related to leadoff guys and/or Whitey Herzog and maybe the Cardinals (maybe the Royals). The basic idea was the leadoff guys would score runs consistently in ones and twos in an inning, whereas the mashers would hang up many more 5s and 6s, but would compensate with more zeros. The consistent scorers will win more one and two-run margins and get clobbered more often--but assuming both are scoring the same number of runs, there's going to be more close games than blowouts.

[brewers96]

Don't think so.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Why would you expect Adam Dunn to raise his OWP from this point? Furthermore, he's not adding much to that with his defensive prowess.

He's very apt to slip lower in OWP--which means his sole way in will be through longevity and something like 600 HR. I don't think the voters should behave the way they do, but rejecting Dunn even in the circumstances you outline would be perfectly consistent with their pronounced reluctance to accept players with sub .250 averages, especially those not noted for their glovework. That said, if he manages what you suggest, he's far more deserving of consideration than most folks seem to think.


Dunn's having his best HR year this year, but his BA is down. But if he keeps on his HR pace and raises his BA to .250 (which he might), he'll have an OWP over .700. He's in his prime; he stands to boost his OWP a bit over the next few years. It'll go back down a bit in his decline phase, but he's entering the part of his career where he may well give it a boost.

[Brad Harris]

Dunn's having his best HR year this year, but his BA is down. But if he keeps on his HR pace and raises his BA to .250 (which he might), he'll have an OWP over .700. He's in his prime; he stands to boost his OWP a bit over the next few years. It'll go back down a bit in his decline phase, but he's entering the part of his career where he may well give it a boost.
This being his walk year, I'm surprised he's not hitting a little better. I suppose he's swinging for the fences a little harder than usual because of precisely that, which would explain the dip in BA. That and he's just been more unlucky on his BABIP than previous seasons. I've seen him take a lot of called third strikes this season. Baker had said something in April about trying to get Dunn to be "more selective" on the pitches he was seeing. It's not out of question for Dunn to hit 50 HR, draw 150 BB and strikeout 200 times perhaps.

People bash his fielding because he has little range in the outfield - I've thought the Reds should have moved him to first base as early as 2004 - but he gives a lot of effort, plays heads-up ball in left and occasionally makes some solid plays. It's not his "fault" he isn't quicker, faster or more graceful.

Still, it's unlikely Dunn will make the Hall of Fame, but if he averages 40 HR a year for another 5 years, let's say, then it's going to be a tough case to turn away, and the bulk of convincing may then lie on the shoulders of his detractors as opposed to his advocates.

[Cougar]

Dunn is now a Diamondback.

How does this affect his case?

Pro: He'll be in a pennant race, and may play in the postseason.

Con: He's no longer got a sole association with one team.

Overall: The pros outweigh the cons heavily, if only because Dunn was exceedingly unlikely to stay with Cincinnati past 2008 anyway...he is headed for free agency.

[Brad Harris]

I think you summed it up pretty nicely. I don't see the team identification thing as a negative. He'll still "be" a Red in people's minds until he's been prominent in another uniform over a period of time. I'm now rooting for the Diamondbacks to win the division because I'd like to see Dunn have an outstanding post-season.

[BlueBlood]

Dunn won't make the post-season. Check out my sig.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Dunn is now a Diamondback.

How does this affect his case?

Pro: He'll be in a pennant race, and may play in the postseason.

Con: He's no longer got a sole association with one team.

Overall: The pros outweigh the cons heavily, if only because Dunn was exceedingly unlikely to stay with Cincinnati past 2008 anyway...he is headed for free agency.

I think Dunn's productivity will pick up. It must have been a drag to play in a town where he was losing all the time. Dunn has never played on a winning team in Cincinnati. Never once. I've got to believe that winning will rejuvenate him to where he'll take a step forward.

[JDD]

I don't think Adam Dunn does enough things well to have a long career. So he has no chance for the Hall of Fame, IMHO.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I don't think Adam Dunn does enough things well to have a long career. So he has no chance for the Hall of Fame, IMHO.

It's hard to say that a guy has NO chance, when he hits 40 jacks 4 years in a row, and is on pace to do it a third.

Dunn is 3rd on the list of active players in ABs per HR; he's 5th all time. He's 21st on the list of active players for career OBP. This skill base suggests he'll keep it up for a while.

Dunn is in good shape as well. He's not a Prince Fielder; a guy who's going to be too fat to play long before he makes it to 500 HRs.

Dunn's a low BA guy, and these guys do poorly with HOF voters as a rule, but he's more of an offensive force than a number of HOF outfielders. I don't know how long he'll last, but it's kind of preposterous to say "no way" to his chances, dontcha think?

[Death to Crawling Things]

This is true. I guess it's possible if a.248 hitter played Willie Mays-Andruw Jones type defense. But Dunn doesn't.


I believe the lowest non-pitcher BA in the HOF is Ray Schalk. in the mid .250s (.253?). And he probably got in more for being a good defensive catcher in the dead-ball era.

I like Dunn. But, I seriously doubt it. He will have to get those 600 HRs and probably also need to get much respect for his BBs.

[MVP31]

The media bias against Adam Dunn has always seemed to be pretty strong. He would have to have some sizeable postseason experience/success, along with some more All Star appearances (he has one right now) in order to stick out in the voters' minds I think. The perception seems to be right now that he is a player who just really doesn't care or try very hard. I believe that when it's all said and done his numbers will probably be deserving of induction, but I don't see the committee ever giving him a real shot.

Bill James' Career Assessment Tool has Dunn finishing at about 570 homeruns by the end of his career. I think he'd have to get somewhere close to that figure to gain any real type of consideration.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Dunn hit 40 HRs; it's the 5th year in a row he did it.

Dunn's BA was below his norm, but his OWP was above his norm. His season, all things considered, was a hair above his career norms.

Dunn's got 278 HRs and he's 29 next year. His production is pretty consistent; he's not up and down, and he doesn't miss much time. His performance is predictable from season to season; there's little reason to think he'll hit around 38-42 HRs next year, with a BA between .240-.255. He's never had a huge peak year, but he's not had an "off year", either. There's something to be said for that.

I don't see how people can say "no way" to Dunn. If he fades in 4 years, he won't make the HOF, but if he keeps up what he's doing for 6-7 more years, which is quite possible, he's a serious candidate. Dunn's not my favorite type of player, but he's the best player of the type.

[Bravesfan1984]

Even if Dunn had a better batting average like 270 or 280 I do not see that as enogh to push him into the HOF. He has only 2 seasons of less then 100 strikeouts and his best mvp finish is 26th. Hitting a lot of home runs is not going to change that he is an average player at best.

[Cowtipper]

Even if Dunn had a better batting average like 270 or 280 I do not see that as enogh to push him into the HOF. He has only 2 seasons of less then 100 strikeouts and his best mvp finish is 26th. Hitting a lot of home runs is not going to change that he is an average player at best.

But he's an above average home run hitter.

[Fuzzy Bear]

But he's an above average home run hitter.

Wow! What a concept!

That's precisely the issue about Dunn; he hits HRs far better than the average power hitter. 40 jacks for 5 years in a row is something not many guys have done.

Dunn also walks a lot, and brings a high OBP to the table. He's not JUST a HR hitter, he's an OBP guy.

And for those of you who complain about Dunn's strikeouts, are you also complaining about Jim Rice's GIDPs? ;)

[Sockeye]

It has been about 3 years since the last series of potential HOFer polls I ran. Thought I would do another series of polls. Below is a list of the players stats to date. Unlike the last series of polls I'm not going to list any career projections.

Adam Dunn at age 28

1131 games
3871 at-bats
699 runs
955 hits
201 doubles
8 triples
278 home runs
672 RBI
59 stolen bases
797 BB
.247 AVG
.381 OBP
.518 SLG
130 OPS+
2006 total bases
4749 PA's
821 runs created
7.3 RC/G
.670 OWP
190.8 batting runs
17.9 batting wins
2 black ink
46 gray ink
25.3 HOF standards
45.0 HOF monitor
.301 EQA
25.8 WARP1
26.6 WARP3
359 BRAR
224 BRAA
32 FRAR
-71 FRAA
167 win shares

[Sockeye]

Results of 2006 poll

Yes 11
No 68

[Fielding Marshall]

His OBP is quite a bit higher than his BA. He's just getting into his prime, and revealed in a past Baseball America interviewthat he has a high work ethic and has high standards for himself. Some might see his current level as Hall-worthy; the truth is that he could very well get better.

It would not be altogether unreasonable to predict a future HoF induction.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I don't belive that Dunn will last long enough to put together a HoF career. His batting average will collapse to the point where he will no long be a starter. I expect this to happen probably by age 33.

[Ace Venom]

I don't think Adam Dunn will make the Hall of Fame short of making necessary adjustments to improve his batting average. He reminds of a poor man's Mark McGwire with his lower average. If he doesn't, he'll just get worse until he's out of the league.

[jalbright]

The older thread on Dunn was merged with this one, but we have the new poll. The prior poll was 68-11 against Dunn making the HOF.

[Freakshow]

I searched for players with a similar BA, OPS+ and BA thru age 28, and there really aren't any.

All players with BA <.270, PA 4049-5449, OPS+ 124-136 thru age-28 season
Cnt Player BA PA OPS+ From To Ages G
+----+-----------------+-----+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+
1 Adam Dunn .247 4749 130 2001 2008 21-28 1131
2 John Mayberry .255 4095 127 1968 1977 19-28 1002
3 Jason Thompson .265 4491 125 1976 1983 21-28 1111
4 Rick Monday .267 4189 126 1966 1974 20-28 1068

[jjpm74]

I put down no at this point only because I can't figure out where his career is heading. Is he progressing towards a Mark McGwire (sans steroids) career or towards a Dave Kingman career?

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

I searched for players with a similar BA, OPS+ and BA thru age 28, and there really aren't any.

All players with BA <.270, PA 4049-5449, OPS+ 124-136 thru age-28 season
Cnt Player BA PA OPS+ From To Ages G
+----+-----------------+-----+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+
1 Adam Dunn .247 4749 130 2001 2008 21-28 1131
2 John Mayberry .255 4095 127 1968 1977 19-28 1002
3 Jason Thompson .265 4491 125 1976 1983 21-28 1111
4 Rick Monday .267 4189 126 1966 1974 20-28 1068

You make a great point: that Dunn is a truly unique player, the likes of which baseball may have never seen before. I'll grant you that Mayberry had some good peak seasons, but I think Dunn is the best player out of those four despite having the lowest batting average. He could very well be the first player to hit 500 homers with a batting average under .250. Do I think Dunn will get into the HOF? No, but, if he keeps up his current pace, I do think he will be a divisive candidate. For what it's worth, he turned in a 2008 season that was approximately as good as Ryan Howard's, despite what the MVP vote suggests.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

I put down no at this point only because I can't figure out where his career is heading. Is he progressing towards a Mark McGwire (sans steroids) career or towards a Dave Kingman career?

He's currently a strange combination of the two: Kingman's batting average and McGwire's OBP. He doesn't have McGwire's ability as a hitter, but he has considerably better plate discipline than Kingman did. I think his career totals will continue to reflect that.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

He's currently a strange combination of the two: Kingman's batting average and McGwire's OBP. He doesn't have McGwire's ability as a hitter, but he has considerably better plate discipline than Kingman did. I think his career totals will continue to reflect that.

Dunn is kind of Ralph Kiner-ish but Kiner was a much better contact hitter.

[leecemark]

--Kiner lead the league in HRs 7 years in a row. Dunn has been amoung the leaders for 5 years, but never been the top man.

[Sockeye]

The comparison that most comes to mind for me and I'm surprised his name hasn't been mentioned yet is Harmon Killebrew.

Compare's some of their seasons

Killebrew

59: .242 AVG, 42 HR, 105 RBI
61: .288 AVG, 46 HR, 122 RBI
62: .243 AVG, 48 HR, 126 RBI
63: .258 AVG, 45 HR, 96 RBI
64: .270 AVG, 49 HR, 111 RBI

Dunn

04: .266 AVG, 46 HR, 102 RBI
05: .247 AVG, 40 HR, 101 RBI
06: .234 AVG, 40 HR, 92 RBI
07: .264 AVG, 40 HR, 106 RBI
08: .236 AVG, 40 HR, 100 RBI

In fact through age 28 both players have five 40 homers seasons while driving in 100 runs four times.

The players career lines through age 28 are extremely similar

Killebrew: 573 R, 272 HR, 670 RBI, 562 BB, 59 SB, .260/.366/.538/142 OPS+
Dunn: 699 R, 278 HR, 672 RBI, 797 BB, 6 SB, .247/.381/.518/130 OPS+

Interestingly enough if you look at Killebrew's career averages through age 28 compared to where he finished his career at .256/.376/.509/143 OPS+ That is a -4/+10/-29/+1. If you apply the same differences to Dunn it would give him a career line of .243/.391/.489/131 OPS+.

Killebrew through age 28 had hit 272 home runs or roughly 47.5% of his career total. If Dunn has the same % of home runs after age 28 he'll finish with roughly 585 home runs.

That would give us a player with a line of .243/.391/.489/131 OPS+, 585 HR
That would be something of a cross between

Mark McGwire .263/.394/.588/162 OPS+, 583 HR
Harmon Killebrew .256/.376/.509/143 OPS+, 573 HR
Darrell Evans .248/.361/.431/119 OPS+, 414 HR

[Mike90]

Baseballreference has Darryl Strawberry as Dunn's most similar player through age 28, but Strawberry was a better hitter (OPS+ of 145 for Darryl and 130 for Dunn) with more speed. The next four similars -- Jose Canseco, Harmon Killebrew, Rocky Colavito, Reggie Jackson -- were all much better hitters than Dunn with similar numbers because they played in lower-run contexts.

Dunn consistently hits about .250 with exactly 40 home runs and more than 100 walks. He's a poor man's Mark McGwire with no peak...I really doubt he's going to be a hall of famer.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Harmon Killebrew superficially appears similar to Dunn because he played in a less offensively inclined era. Killebrew was better than Dunn has been so far though. Jim Thome is a much better comp for Killebrew.

[nyykan_t]

Killebrew and Dunn are similar hitter. But Killebrew is a better contact hitter. He is a .256 hitter in a pitching friendly league. Dunn is a .247 hitter in a hitting friendly league and he even hasn't entered his decline. Also, Killebrew is a 4 time HR leader when he is 28. Dunn has none.

His chance is 50/50 if he can reach the 500 mark. And if he does have 500HR, I think he should be in.

[Sockeye]

I think to much importance is put on Dunn's batting average. Yes it is .247 which is 24 points below league average. The much more important number to look at is his .381 OBP which is 38 points above league average. That more than offsets his batting average even before considering his power numbers.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think to much importance is put on Dunn's batting average. Yes it is .247 which is 24 points below league average. The much more important number to look at is his .381 OBP which is 38 points above league average. That more than offsets his batting average even before considering his power numbers.

Dunn's BA is important. Indeed, I consider BA to be far more important than many people here think it to be.

BA is the statistic that reflect's the most basic offensive skill; the ability to put the bat on the ball for a hit. This is important because you can have the best batting eye in the world, but if you can't put the bat on the ball for a hit, you will be at the point where a pitcher can throw you all fastballs for strikes, and you will be out.

It is for this reason that I don't believe Dunn will get to 600 HRs. If he does, it will be because he will have a mid-career boost in BA a la McGwire. It is entirely possible that this could happen; Dunn could rip off a few years where he hits in the .260-.270 range. That doesn't sound like much, but if Dunn were to do this AND maintain his current power, that would be HUGE.

That being said, Dunn's CONSISTENCY at reaching the 40 HR plateau is remarkable. How many guys have done this 5 years in a row? Barry Bonds. Sammy Sosa (who actually did it six years in a row). Babe Ruth (who did it seven times in a row). Ralph Kiner. Ken Griffey, Jr. A-Rod (six times in a row). Jim Thome would have; he hit 40-plus four times, was injured, then knocked out 40-plus the year after his injury. Dunn's in pretty rare company, and while this paragraph is somewhat in the nature of the "He's in the group." argument (Dunn is, arguably, the LEAST of this group.), his skill in turning out 40 HRs every year is remarkable. He's a low BA power hitter, and I've never really been enamored of this type of player, but he's one of the best ever of the type; he's not Mac or Killer, but he's light years ahead of Greg Vaughn.

[ConnieMack]

Dunn has no shot at the Hall of Fame unless He has a complete turnaround and starts making contact, raises his average and cuts down on his K's.

He has averaged 40 HR a season, but did that while playing in the NL Central.
His Home Park in Cincinatti was arguably one of the better HR parks,along with Houston and Chicago.
Look for his HR total to decrease accordingly, will be hard to keep the 40 HR average in those parks.

Comparing Dunn to Killebrew is not even close.
Killebrew dominated in HR's in a complete pitchers era, while Dunn has not been able to dominate in a hitters era.

[nerfan]

What hasn't really been brought up here is that Dunn isn't a good defensive outfielder and that players of his size generally run into injuries later in their careers.

And his offense is supposed to be his saving grace, but I really don't see it. He has two top-ten finishes in adjusted OPS+ (ninth and tenth). He's got a career 130 OPS+. Amos Otis has 114 and he played terrific defense. Why not Otis, if Dunn? J.D. Drew and Ryan Klesko have similar OPS+. Klesko is actually a pretty good match for Dunn. They're both poor defensive left fielders, who make up for a middling batting average with walks and power. Dunn superficially has more power because of his impressive home run totals, but he's played in good home run parks up to this point in his career.

In short: no. I'd be surprised if he cracks 40 homers while playing in the less cozy Nationals Stadium, and his good-if-not-great offensive production barely obscures his poor baserunning and terrible defense. He might surprise me with an extended prime though.

Percent of making it into the actual HoF: 5%.
Percent of making it into mine: probably about 15%.

[Freakshow]

His Home Park in Cincinatti was arguably one of the better HR parks,along with Houston and Chicago.
Compare that with the parks in the NL West, where He will be playing the majority of games now. LA, SanDiego, not exactly a hitters paradise.

Look for his HR total to decrease accordingly, will be hard to keep the 40 HR average in those parks.There may be something to this. Here are some career stats.

-PA- OPS tOPS+
1796 .941 108 Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati)
2394 .871 094 Road Games
0162 .773 073 Chase Field (Arizona)
0107 .815 083 Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
0102 .558 025 AT&T Park (San Francisco)

EDIT: If he actually played for a team in the west division. Here's a good link discussing all this: Position Battles: Nats' 1B/OF Mess (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/position-battle-nats-of1b-mess)

[Sockeye]

Dunn's BA is important. Indeed, I consider BA to be far more important than many people here think it to be.

I go the other way on this. Give me a .247 AVG & .381 OBP over a .277 AVG & .351 OBP anyday!

BA is the statistic that reflect's the most basic offensive skill; the ability to put the bat on the ball for a hit. This is important because you can have the best batting eye in the world, but if you can't put the bat on the ball for a hit, you will be at the point where a pitcher can throw you all fastballs for strikes, and you will be out.

I think you are over simplifying it. Obviously any player that can't hit a fastball down the middle isn't going to be playing A ball much less in the majors. Bases on balls compared to hits are a matter of situational hitting. In many cases a walk is as good as a hit and working the count helps both the batter as well as his teammates.

It is for this reason that I don't believe Dunn will get to 600 HRs. If he does, it will be because he will have a mid-career boost in BA a la McGwire. It is entirely possible that this could happen; Dunn could rip off a few years where he hits in the .260-.270 range. That doesn't sound like much, but if Dunn were to do this AND maintain his current power, that would be HUGE.

It's hard to expect anyone to reach 600 homers. I do think Dunn stands an exceptional chance at reaching 500. No one in history has hit 500 homers without making the HOF. McGwire may very well be the first not to but we all know that if it was purely based on the numbers that he would be in. Dunn will almost certainly have a few more seasons in the .260-.270 range while pounding out 40+ homers. He's already had two such seasons in 04 & 07

That being said, Dunn's CONSISTENCY at reaching the 40 HR plateau is remarkable. How many guys have done this 5 years in a row? Barry Bonds. Sammy Sosa (who actually did it six years in a row). Babe Ruth (who did it seven times in a row). Ralph Kiner. Ken Griffey, Jr. A-Rod (six times in a row). Jim Thome would have; he hit 40-plus four times, was injured, then knocked out 40-plus the year after his injury. Dunn's in pretty rare company, and while this paragraph is somewhat in the nature of the "He's in the group." argument (Dunn is, arguably, the LEAST of this group.), his skill in turning out 40 HRs every year is remarkable. He's a low BA power hitter, and I've never really been enamored of this type of player, but he's one of the best ever of the type; he's not Mac or Killer, but he's light years ahead of Greg Vaughn.

Every one of those players you listed are either in the HOF, will be in the HOF, or should be in the HOF if not for alledged PED usage. And lets not forget that Adam Dunn's streak is still active! From age 29-31 is when historically players are at their power peak. So who is to say that Dunn couldn't hit 40+ a year each of the next 3 seasons and extend his streak to 8. No player in history (including Ruth) has ever done that. It would be hard to imagine him not getting in the HOF with that accomplishment.

[Sockeye]

What hasn't really been brought up here is that Dunn isn't a good defensive outfielder and that players of his size generally run into injuries later in their careers.

And his offense is supposed to be his saving grace, but I really don't see it. He has two top-ten finishes in adjusted OPS+ (ninth and tenth). He's got a career 130 OPS+. Amos Otis has 114 and he played terrific defense. Why not Otis, if Dunn? J.D. Drew and Ryan Klesko have similar OPS+. Klesko is actually a pretty good match for Dunn. They're both poor defensive left fielders, who make up for a middling batting average with walks and power. Dunn superficially has more power because of his impressive home run totals, but he's played in good home run parks up to this point in his career.

In short: no. I'd be surprised if he cracks 40 homers while playing in the less cozy Nationals Stadium, and his good-if-not-great offensive production barely obscures his poor baserunning and terrible defense. He might surprise me with an extended prime though.

Percent of making it into the actual HoF: 5%.
Percent of making it into mine: probably about 15%.

The Dunn/Klesko comparison is a poor one. Klesko really wasn't a guy that hit for a low average. In fact his average of .279 was 13 points above league average. Klesko didn't draw nearly as many walks as Dunn. He only walked 80+ times twice in his career compared to Dunn who has drawn over 100 walks already six times in his career. Klesko doesn't have near the power that Dunn has and only average a homer every 20.2 AB's compared to Dunn's one homer every 13.9 AB's. Klesko only had 2 gray ink for his career, Dunn already has 46. About the only thing these two players have in common is positional.

Also Dunn while large in size is actually an above average baserunner with decent speed. 59 SB in 78 attempts for a 75% success rate.

[nerfan]

The Dunn/Klesko comparison is a poor one. Klesko really wasn't a guy that hit for a low average. In fact his average of .279 was 13 points above league average. Klesko didn't draw nearly as many walks as Dunn. He only walked 80+ times twice in his career compared to Dunn who has drawn over 100 walks already six times in his career. Klesko doesn't have near the power that Dunn has and only average a homer every 20.2 AB's compared to Dunn's one homer every 13.9 AB's. Klesko only had 2 gray ink for his career, Dunn already has 46. About the only thing these two players have in common is positional.

Also Dunn while large in size is actually an above average baserunner with decent speed. 59 SB in 78 attempts for a 75% success rate.

But Klesko had his big years in parks that minimized homers, while Dunn had a launching pad. And Dunn is not a good baserunner. 75% success rate is just about breakeven, plus I've watched him play and he's not, let's say, good, at taking the extra base. He's not SLOW, though.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The Dunn/Klesko comparison is a poor one. Klesko really wasn't a guy that hit for a low average. In fact his average of .279 was 13 points above league average. Klesko didn't draw nearly as many walks as Dunn. He only walked 80+ times twice in his career compared to Dunn who has drawn over 100 walks already six times in his career. Klesko doesn't have near the power that Dunn has and only average a homer every 20.2 AB's compared to Dunn's one homer every 13.9 AB's. Klesko only had 2 gray ink for his career, Dunn already has 46. About the only thing these two players have in common is positional.

Also Dunn while large in size is actually an above average baserunner with decent speed. 59 SB in 78 attempts for a 75% success rate.

Another thing that differentiates Dunn and Klesko is platoon differential.


AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
vs RHP 2617 518 660 142 6 199 473 582 80 815 28 2 14 0 11 41 42 11 .252 .392 .539
vs RHP 4329 754 1256 280 24 247 824 668 82 750 14 1 46 6 57 100 74 35 .290 .383 .537
vs LHP 1254 181 295 59 2 79 199 215 1 441 30 0 7 0 9 16 17 8 .235 .359 .474
vs LHP 1282 120 308 63 9 31 163 149 2 327 15 3 9 1 24 25 17 6 .240 .324 .376


Dunn's stats are in red (appropriately, I think). They reflect a normal platoon drag. Dunn loses something vs. lefties, but he's above replacement level.

Klesko, on the other hand, is a flat-out platoon player. Look how much POWER he loses against lefties vs. Dunn. Dunn isn't a superstar vs. lefties, to be sure, but Klesko's performance vs. lefties is probably below replacement, which is why he's been a platoon player for most of his career.

[bambambaseball]

Im surprised that almost noone thinks Adam Dunn will eventually be a HOFer. He defnenitly looks like hes on that path! :ooo:

[Bravesfan1984]

Im surprised that almost noone thinks Adam Dunn will eventually be a HOFer. He defnenitly looks like hes on that path! :ooo:


Last time I checked people on this path usually did not make the HOF

[jalbright]

Well, bambam and Bravesfan, the issue with Dunn is that his path is very definitely unique. There have been lesser players with his mix of skills, and players as good as him with different skills--but nobody as good as him having this mix of skills. That makes him hard to peg.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Well, bambam and Bravesfan, the issue with Dunn is that his path is very definitely unique. There have been lesser players with his mix of skills, and players as good as him with different skills--but nobody as good as him having this mix of skills. That makes him hard to peg.

Can we say that Adam Dunn is the greatest "young player with old player skills" in MLB history?

I think we can. He's more athletic than many of the guys in that category. Many of those guys (Cecil Fielder, Alvin Davis) aged very poorly, sometimes dropping off of the map all at once. I don't know that this will put him in the HOF, but he has a better foundation for success than some of these guys. He's closer to Big Mac than Cecil Fielder.

[thewupk]

Dunns definitely a unique case. The voters like counting stats and barring injuries of him aging really bad Dunn will have the homers and rbi. And he would probably finish somewhere in the 60 range in career wRAA (from fangraphs). If he did that then offensively he is definitely a hall of famer. But he is a butcher in the field and that will penalize him a lot. Enough to keep him out of the hof? Time will tell.

[Bravesfan1984]

Well, bambam and Bravesfan, the issue with Dunn is that his path is very definitely unique. There have been lesser players with his mix of skills, and players as good as him with different skills--but nobody as good as him having this mix of skills. That makes him hard to peg.

So you have to evaluate them indivisually. You have to weigh the good with the bad and see if the one that has more is enough to be a HOFer.

[Cougar]

So you have to evaluate them indivisually. You have to weigh the good with the bad and see if the one that has more is enough to be a HOFer.

You take the good, you take the bad,
you take them both and there you have
The Hall of Fame, the Hall of Fame.

[Brad Harris]

You take the good, you take the bad,
you take them both and there you have
The Hall of Fame, the Hall of Fame.
Edna and the girls would be proud.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

You take the good, you take the bad,
you take them both and there you have
The Hall of Fame, the Hall of Fame.

:radio :clapping

[four tool]

Let me get this straight..You are comparing Adam Dunn to Dave Kingman?
Well lets see

Kingman: .236/.302/.478
Dunn: .248/.383/.518
Killebrew: .256/.376/.509

Hmmm which set of numbers are closer? Next you'll be comparing Dunn to Juan Pierre...yep their practically twins. Just like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito.

What were Killebrew's numbers after he played the number of games Dunn has?

[Freakshow]

Well, bambam and Bravesfan, the issue with Dunn is that his path is very definitely unique. There have been lesser players with his mix of skills, and players as good as him with different skills--but nobody as good as him having this mix of skills. That makes him hard to peg.Maybe. The chart I posted earlier omitted players with significantly higher OPS+ than Dunn. Here's a revised chart.

All players primarily 1B, 3B, DH or OF, with BA <.275, PA >4000, OPS+ >122 thru age-28 season
Cnt Player BA OPS+ G PA From To
+----+-----------------+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+
1 Adam Dunn .247 130 1131 4749 2001 2008
2 John Mayberry .255 127 1002 4095 1968 1977
3 Jeff Burroughs .260 123 1123 4665 1970 1979
4 Harmon Killebrew .260 142 995 4044 1954 1964
5 Darryl Strawberry .263 145 1109 4549 1983 1990
6 Jimmy Wynn .263 138 1019 4314 1963 1970
7 Jason Thompson .265 125 1111 4491 1976 1983
8 Jose Canseco .266 137 1032 4429 1985 1993
9 Reggie Jackson .267 152 1074 4387 1967 1974
10 Rick Monday .267 126 1068 4189 1966 1974
11 Boog Powell .269 137 1271 4998 1961 1970
12 Rocky Colavito .271 139 1006 4206 1955 1962
13 Bobby Bonds .273 131 1014 4610 1968 1974

[Sockeye]

Dunn is a rare breed indeed. His high strikeout total are not a result of him swinging and missing as much as the fact he takes so many pitches. Now I don't have any data at hand to back this up so if anyone can present data to backup or disprove this conclusion is welcomed to do so. But it seems to me from watching Adam Dunn play over the years that he has more called 3rd strikes than any player in history. Or at least a higher % of his strikeouts are called verses swinging than any slugger in history. I wonder if his size and large strike zone could have something to do with it.

[powderblue]

I think Dunn will eventually make the Hall of Fame, and when he does, he will be the poster child of "a walk is as good as a hit" philosophy that has become so popular. I think his .383 career OBP offsets his poor batting average and he has come along and consistently hit for power just enough after the steroid era for that to still hold weight. He's just a big dude... Kinda weird though, he has exactly 40 HR in each of the last 5 seasons.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think Dunn will eventually make the Hall of Fame, and when he does, he will be the poster child of "a walk is as good as a hit" philosophy that has become so popular. I think his .383 career OBP offsets his poor batting average and he has come along and consistently hit for power just enough after the steroid era for that to still hold weight. He's just a big dude... Kinda weird though, he has exactly 40 HR in each of the last 5 seasons.

It's kind of odd. If Dunn had one less HR in every season he had 40 HRs, exactly, his career would look a whole lot less impressive, even if you added those HRs to his 46 HR season to give him 51 that year.

Milestones count; they count because of the image projected by players who reach a particular milestone. Dunn is Exhibit Q in that case.

[RuthMayBond]

You take the good, you take the bad,
you take them both and there you have
The Hall of Fame, the Hall of Fame.

Feast your eyes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAX7WGCvP7c&feature=related

[Bravesfan1984]

Dunn does have a HOF peak of any kind and that is a big problem.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

ESPN Baseball lists Dunn's current weight at 287 lbs! That's pretty heavy. :nod:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4808

[Francoeurstein]

Remind to check this topic in 2 years.

[Senor Octobre]

He'll probably break Reggie's K record but despite that, he's never once finished in the top 10 in outs made. Dunn seems to me like a guy that will have to be judged whether or not he's Hall-worthy when his career is done with (as opposed to a guy like Pujols who IMHO is a lock now).

[ol' aches and pains]

He'll probably break Reggie's K record but despite that, he's never once finished in the top 10 in outs made. Dunn seems to me like he's going to be a guy that will have to be judged when his career is done with.

As opposed to inducting him now? What a concept! :D

[Senor Octobre]

As opposed to inducting him now? What a concept! :D

Hahaha yeah, sorry. I corrected myself.

[538280]

Dunn will never be a HOFer IMO. In this era he's not a huge offensive force, more just like a very good offensive player. His OBP is good, but not great due to his low BA. His power is also very good but not really on a historically great level in the context of this era. He used to not be such a bad fielder but he has become terrible in recent years, same with baserunning. He's a valuable player who is better than his critics say he is, but he's not a great player at all, and won't be a HOFer. I also seriously doubt he'll break the K record or hit a huge number of career HRs (and by huge I'm speaking relatively, he could get 500 but he won't get 600 as I see he was projected for earlier in this thread). The reason is because he simply isn't a good enough player to last that long. Players lose their skills as they age and a player like Dunn will go down a notch in power and there won't be much reason to have him anymore. He'll have burned out before he can break Reggie's K record. Reggie got so many Ks because he was good enough to last a very long time, Dunn isn't that good.

[nerfan]

He's more like Harmon Killebrew, only he plays in a strong offensive era rather than poor one.

[PVNICK]

He's more like Harmon Killebrew, only he plays in a strong offensive era rather than poor one.
To the extent that a .250 hitter in a .250 league is the same as a .250 hitter in a .270 league and extrapolate that out to the OBP and Spct which are within 10 points of each other, and recall that Killebrew's numbers have been dragged down by a decline phase. If anything off the top of my head Killebrew is probably closer to McGwire, though that raises all sorts of other questions.

[cavalier1968]

Before age 30 is impressive........



Cav

[cavalier1968]

Darryl Strawberry (921)
Jose Canseco (907)
Harmon Killebrew (903) *
Rocky Colavito (896)
Reggie Jackson (891) *
Troy Glaus (869)
Tom Brunansky (867)
Barry Bonds (862)
Roger Maris (861)
Boog Powell (857)

BTW his nickname is "BIg Donkey"

Cav

[Fuzzy Bear]

I can't see why folks are so down on Dunn. He's over 300 HRs with 5 straight seasons of 40 or more HRs in a row, working on 6. He's hitting .281 at this writing, pushing his lifetime BA over .250. He's got a career OBP of .384, and he's scored 1,081 runs at age 29.

This is not chopped liver. People need to look at Dunn and what he's doing, and not just look at his BA.

[538280]

I can't see why folks are so down on Dunn. He's over 300 HRs with 5 straight seasons of 40 or more HRs in a row, working on 6. He's hitting .281 at this writing, pushing his lifetime BA over .250. He's got a career OBP of .384, and he's scored 1,081 runs at age 29.

This is not chopped liver. People need to look at Dunn and what he's doing, and not just look at his BA.

You need to look at his power numbers in context. In context of his time his power numbers are hardly revolutionary. The only reason his counting numbers look so good is that he's playing in the biggest power era in history. Dunn's relative hitting numbers are not good enough for a player in mid career who brings almost no value outside of his bat. To relate to a discussion you and I had on the other thread Dunn's relative SLG is 120 (in mid career) and Cesar Cedeno's career rel. SLG is 116. Through the same amount of time I'd bet Cedeno's relative SLG was higher or the same as Dunn's.

[CircleChange11]

I can't see why folks are so down on Dunn. He's over 300 HRs with 5 straight seasons of 40 or more HRs in a row, working on 6. He's hitting .281 at this writing, pushing his lifetime BA over .250. He's got a career OBP of .384, and he's scored 1,081 runs at age 29.

This is not chopped liver. People need to look at Dunn and what he's doing, and not just look at his BA.

He's not chopped liver. Bill Buckner was a great hitter, so was Mark Grace and Will Clark, and throw in Keith Hernandez for fun.

They're just not Hall of Famers.

Heck, Hernandez is an MVP, 2 world series rings, 11 gold gloves, .296/.384/.436 guy.

People need to stop just looking at Dunn's HRs and BBs and compare him to the other players in his era.

[JDD]

He'll get more posts in this thread than he will get votes for the Baseball HOF.

[dgarza]

He's hitting .281 at this writing, pushing his lifetime BA over .250.
For one, this is saying a lot.


This is not chopped liver. People need to look at Dunn and what he's doing, and not just look at his BA.True, you can't just look as AB. But I think most people who are down on him are looking at what's he's not doing.

Dunn hits lots of homeruns. He does that well. So did Rocky Colavito. But Colavito was a better batter all around and a more valuable fielder. Colavito (who won a HR crown) had a better peak than Dunn as well. I don't hear a lot of rally for Colavito for the HOF. Dunn's pace seems to indicate that he will be a less worthy HOF candidate than Colavito.

[JDD]

All he needs is someone to write a book about him after he is traded.

Maybe name a curse after him.

[Cougar]

For one, this is saying a lot.

True, you can't just look as AB. But I think most people who are down on him are looking at what's he's not doing.

Dunn hits lots of homeruns. He does that well. So did Rocky Colavito. But Colavito was a better batter all around and a more valuable fielder. Colavito (who won a HR crown) had a better peak than Dunn as well. I don't hear a lot of rally for Colavito for the HOF. Dunn's pace seems to indicate that he will be a less worthy HOF candidate than Colavito.

Colavito dropped off a cliff when he turned thirty.

If that happens to Dunn, or pretty much anyone outside of Prince Albert, they won't make the Hall either.

All this discussion must assume a non-catastrophic aging process.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Colavito dropped off a cliff when he turned thirty.

If that happens to Dunn, or pretty much anyone outside of Prince Albert, they won't make the Hall either.

All this discussion must assume a non-catastrophic aging process.

This leads to the question as to how long will Dunn last? According to his player profile at ESPN he weighs 287 lbs! How soon before he reaches 300 lbs and is forced to become a DH?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4808

[CircleChange11]

This leads to the question as to how long will Dunn last? According to his player profile at ESPN he weighs 287 lbs! How soon before he reaches 300 lbs and is forced to become a DH?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4808

2-3 years ago? (i.e., become a DH)

[RyanExpress30]

Right now, no, but he'll definitely make for some interesting debate if he posts a few more seasons like the one he's having this year.

[CircleChange11]

He's also likely to become a DH ... ad probaby not too far down the road. As such, the numbers are going to need to be a bit higher as he is goin' to be compared to Thome and Thomas.

It is going to be interesting to watch and see if he keeps pace.

[dgarza]

He's also likely to become a DH ... ad probaby not too far down the road. As such, the numbers are going to need to be a bit higher as he is goin' to be compared to Thome and Thomas.
If so, that looks like a Canseco type of career, which would be quite possible. I guess it's possible that Dunn will end up like Canseco, minus the average, minus the speed, and (gulp) minus the fielding :noidea.

[nerfan]

If so, that looks like a Canseco type of career, which would be quite possible. I guess it's possible that Dunn will end up like Canseco, minus the average, minus the speed, and (gulp) minus the fielding :noidea.

But Dunn has 33 more net home runs than Canseco up to this point in their careers. (Yes, I am counting the bouncing head homer.)

[Fuzzy Bear]

Dunn's been great this year. He's at 38 HRs and needs 2 more to make it 40 for the 6th year in a row. He's posted a .727 OWP at this writing, which is excellent, and he's at .677 OWP for his career, which is borderline HOF for a HOFer.

Dunn is aging well for a player of his type. He may well have improved in mid-career, and while that's unusual, I think he's now at a level that suggests he might retain his ability to hit a baseball for longer than previously anticipated.

I can't see how people can just blow off a guy who hits 40-plus HRs six years in a row. People say he's Dave Kingman, but Kingman NEVER CAME CLOSE to what he's done to date. Dunn could well be the new McGwire, and that's a compliment.

[STLCards2]

Dunn's been great this year. He's at 38 HRs and needs 2 more to make it 40 for the 6th year in a row. He's posted a .727 OWP at this writing, which is excellent, and he's at .677 OWP for his career, which is borderline HOF for a HOFer.

Dunn is aging well for a player of his type. He may well have improved in mid-career, and while that's unusual, I think he's now at a level that suggests he might retain his ability to hit a baseball for longer than previously anticipated.

I can't see how people can just blow off a guy who hits 40-plus HRs six years in a row. People say he's Dave Kingman, but Kingman NEVER CAME CLOSE to what he's done to date. Dunn could well be the new McGwire, and that's a compliment.

Dunn is neither Kingman or McGwire: Dunn walks way, way, way more than Kingman and has a much superior OB%. However, McGwire's OB% was a lot higher than Dunn's during his prime, and was hitting a HR every 10 AB's instead of Dunn's 14. In fact, Dunn is a lot closer to Kingman in terms of OPS+ (132 to 115) than Dunn is to McGwire (162).

Dunn is defintiley underrated by the crowd that ignores walks and thinks that a guy has to have 4 tools to be great. However, he is no Mark McGwire either.

[538280]

Dunn shouldn't be lumped into categories that he doesn't deserve to be in just because of the type of player he is. He isn't Dave Kingman or Rob Deer on one side (he's far better than them), but he isn't Mark McGwire on the other side (not close to as good a hitter as McGwire). One of the fundemental aspects of evaluating players is realizing the degrees of abilities, and not just putting players in a group and saying they're the same. Dunn is having the best season of his career and it's a positive for his HOF candidacy, but I still think he needs to put up a few more seasons like this. Otherwise I don't see how he will get out of Jim Rice territory, and what really hurts Rice (lack of value outside of the bat), hurts Dunn even more.

[Pete Rose Rounding Third]

And Dunn wouldn't have the aura of fear and respect that Rice had, which ended up pushing him over the top. The sportswriters of Rice's day were in awe of his fearsome persona; I'm guessing that today's sportswriters are not similarly impressed with Dunn.

[Cowtipper]

Wow, he showed an improvement in batting average in 2009. Still, I think he'll finish with a sub-.250 batting average for his career. Would you guys vote for a 500 home run hitter with a batting average of less than .250?

[EricAnno]

Wow, he showed an improvement in batting average in 2009. Still, I think he'll finish with a sub-.250 batting average for his career. Would you guys vote for a 500 home run hitter with a batting average of less than .250?

Yes.

If his OBP stays right around .380 (better than Reggie Jackson and Harmon Killebrew), his SLG stays around .520 (better than Reg and Killer), and his OPS stays right around .900 (again, better than Reggie and Killebrew). Batting average is a terrible indication of how great a hitter is.

*Granted, Reggie and Killer's OPS+'s are both better than Dunn's, but that comes from the era in which both Reg and Killer played in.

I still think if Dunn gets to 500 home runs with his OBP, SLG, and OPS staying right around where they are now, he makes it to the Hall of Fame. He certainly makes it to my "Hall of Underrated".

[Cowtipper]

His case will certainly be interesting when the time comes.

[rsuriyop]

Admittedly, I was never really all that into Dunn to begin with (low AVG/high strikeout power hitter type) and felt kind of iffy about his HOF chances. But every year since then he's been winning more and more of my respect, mostly because he puts up the same line of stats every year--40+ HRs, 100+ RBI, 100+ BB's. And as Cowtipper has already noted, showed an improvement in BA AVG this year. All of which has made me feel more inclined to select the first choice (Yes, he'll eventually deserve to be in the HOF).

[willshad]

If so, that looks like a Canseco type of career, which would be quite possible. I guess it's possible that Dunn will end up like Canseco, minus the average, minus the speed, and (gulp) minus the fielding :noidea.

Dunn has FAR mor duarbility than Canseco, and that makes a huge difference. He already has more full seasons than Jose had in his entire career.

[dominik]

One number:500

If not(or very close to) he won't make it. He hits for low average and his defense is one of the worst ever in the majors.

[Sockeye]

Another big season from Dunn. .267/38/105/142 OPS+. Arguably the 2nd best season of his career. This time while playing in a much less hitter friendly park. At age 29 with 316 career home runs, 913 walks, .383 OBP, 131 OPS+, .675 owp, he looks to be well on his way to the HOF.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Another big season from Dunn. .267/38/105/142 OPS+. Arguably the 2nd best season of his career. This time while playing in a much less hitter friendly park. At age 29 with 316 career home runs, 913 walks, .383 OBP, 131 OPS+, .675 owp, he looks to be well on his way to the HOF.

Dunn's .715 OWP was tied for his best season ever. His numbers took a different form this season, but this was a good thing. Dunn was not only on base more often, he was making contact more often, and this augurs well for how he will age. I am somewhat more optimistic as to Dunn's HOF chances after this season. My optimism will jump exponentially if he keeps up this level of performance for the next 4 seasons, which he well may do.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Dunn is missing what I like to call "subjective" peripherals that voters like to see. He's made just one All-Star team and that was way back in 2002. He's received MVP votes just twice finishing 28th in 2004 and 26th in 2005. He's lead the league in a major category just four times (3x in strikeouts and 1x in walks). All this is an extreme negative when it's the time for the HoF to review his career.

[Bravesfan1984]

Dunn is missing what I like to call "subjective" peripherals that voters like to see. He's made just one All-Star team and that was way back in 2002. He's received MVP votes just twice finishing 28th in 2004 and 26th in 2005. He's lead the league in a major category just four times (3x in strikeouts and 1x in walks). All this is an extreme negative when it's the time for the HoF to review his career.

I am with you on this no matter how many counting stats he racks up the lack of these things make him not much of a Hall of Fame canidate.

[dominik]

Dunn is missing what I like to call "subjective" peripherals that voters like to see. He's made just one All-Star team and that was way back in 2002. He's received MVP votes just twice finishing 28th in 2004 and 26th in 2005. He's lead the league in a major category just four times (3x in strikeouts and 1x in walks). All this is an extreme negative when it's the time for the HoF to review his career.

Leading SOs is not exactly a good thing...

I'm still sceptical. Often players of his type don't age well and decline fast. So he might not keep it up. If he declines in the next years he won't have a chance.

If he stays healthy and sharp till his late 30s he can make it to over 500HRs which will likely make him a lock. But for this scenario everything would have to go well.