Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds and Albert Pujols

[wilkerson_rulz-06]

Will these guys go to the HOF?
They all should and deserve to!

[STLCards2]

Albert - barring an injury or some sudden and striking career decline, the answer is obvious.

Rolen - Rolen is an interesting case. He is generally regarded as one of the greatest defensive thirdbasemen ever, has been one of the best offensive thirdbasemen the past 10 years. He has never had a "huge" year (maybe 2004), and is one shoulder injury from his career being over. he needs several more good offensive and defensive years to make it.

Edmonds - Sorry, too me Edmonds will fall short. Great defensively (tad overrated, but not as much as some around here think), and very good offensively. He still never led the league in anything, struck out way too much, and put up his numbers in a great offensive era with guys names McGwire and Pujols batting behind and in front of him. A few more years of production similar to 2004 would ensure his induction, but he is declining already. I don't see him playing long enough to reach the magic milestone number either.

[Brad Harris]

A few more healthy seasons by Edmonds and Rolen and they're in. Pujols does what he's doing for 10 seasons...anything after that will just be gravy.

Frankly, I see all of them earning admission.

[switch_hitter]

I don't think Rolen will get in, because his career has been too injury-plagued. Edmonds has had a good career, but he is declining and will be one of those fringe players potential borderline HOFers are judged against. But he's not a Hall of Famer.

[KCGHOST]

Rolen and Edmonds have work to do and have to stay healthy to get it done. They really need to boost their counting numbers. Albert seems like an absolute lock, but with only five season in things could go wrong yet.

[jalbright]

Pujols is the easy one. Only 25, he's already at HOF levels of MVP support, his black and gray ink are already at or near HOF levels, his ten most similar at this age is most encouraging, his peak performance is easily HOF quality (his best 3 in Win Shares places third among first basemen listed in the latest Bill James Historical Abstract, while his best five consecutive in win shares is tied for second). He's been an all-star four times already, with more almost certain to come. Really, five more years with at least 120 win shares, and he's in. Absent injury or Pete Rose or Barry Bonds type difficulties, it's hard to see how he could miss.

Scott Rolen is a mixed bag. The biggest problem is he's 30 and has had injury problems. His ten most similar at this age is encouraging, and his peak performance is HOF worthy (11th in top 3 in win shares among 3B and 12th in best five consecutive). He's only about 60 win shares short of the top 20 3B in career win shares, which I think he should make. OTOH, he's not done well in black or gray ink in HOF terms, he's only been an all-star 4 times, and he hasn't done well in MVP voting. My guess is if he can stay healthy enough, he'll get there--but I'm not at all sure he'll do that. If he can't stay healthy, the problems could easily derail him. I've always liked him, so I wish him well.

Jim Edmonds is a tough case. He's 35, so most of his career is obviously already done. He's only been an all-star four times, which is low for a HOFer, he's not done well in MVP voting in HOF terms, and no black ink and only 60 points of gray ink is quite poor for a HOF caliber outfielder. His ten most similar at this age isn't encouraging, either. His peak performances are right around the borderline of HOF caliber for a CF, 18th in top 3 in win shares and 16th in best five consecutive. He's only about 30 win shares from the top 20 in career win shares, so that's not bad. He's certainly got to get over 2000 hits to have a chance, and that's 381 from where he started this year. To me, he's got to have longevity to amass some significantly better career numbers, or the weaknesses would doom his candidacy.

Jim Albright

[1doug]

I can Pujols making it, but the other 2, who are good, I just dont see them as HOF's yet. But I guess they could.

[538280]

Pujols just needs to last 10 years, of course.

Rolen needs quite a bit of longevity, and frankly I don't see him getting it with his injury history. Peak is good, but not in the Groh/Bando range IMO. If he turns out how I think he will, he'll be similar to Ken Boyer, who I think falls short.

Edmonds isn't in as of now, needs at least 3 more really good years, which could of course come. That's all there is to say about him. If he does good the next three years, he's in IMO, if not he's out.

[julusnc]

Albert Pujols is well on his way towards what may become a 12-15 year HOF career.

HOF Chances: 85%
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Scott Rolen has shown a good turn at third but needs about 5+ seasons of injury free baseball to be considered.

HOF Chances: 60%
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Jim Edmonds has always fallen into the catagory I place past players like Bernie Williams, Darryl Strawberry, Eric Davis good careers but not good enough.

HOF Chances: 40%