Most likely to 300 W

[micsmith]

Now that Pedro Martinez has won his 200th game, who do you think will be the next 300 game winner? Or who has the best shot at doing it? I'd like to exclude Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson from the running, because I feel that Glavine certainly will get there, and Johnson will get there if he wants to play long enough. As for every other pitcher, I have my doubts that any of them will reach 300 career wins. The other pitchers that come to my mind as having at least a chance are Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Bartolo Colon, and possibly Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson.

Pedro - 34 years old with 200 wins and counting. He could have 215+ wins by the time he turns 35. It seems like he has the ability to continue to play at a competitive level for several more seasons - into his forties, but I don't know if he's the type of player that would want to keep going.

Mussina - 37 years old. Seems like he'll be able to reach 250 wins, but even with the powerful Yankees offense behind him, he seems to be wearing down and declining too fast.

Pettitte - has the 2nd lowest ERA in baseball last year, so he's still an elite pitcher, but he turns 34 in a couple of months. And unlike Pedro, he won't have 200 wins by the time he turns 35. Of course Phil Niekro won 100 games after he turned 40, so there's hope for Pettitte.

Colon - Winningest pitcher since 2000 (along with Randy Johnson). He's 33 and will only reach 150 wins this year. So, he's pretty far behind Pettitte and Pedro. Perhaps he can string together a few more 17+ win seasons with the Angels and can get to 200 farily quickly. Unfortunately, I think he got started a bit late.


Are there any other players that have a decent chance of getting to 300 Wins?

[rockin500]

i dont think so as I dont know how many more pitches pedro has left in that shoulder. not to mention that toe of his. He'll probably end up with 250-275 wins. I dont even think johnson will make it. glavine, i thought not, but its looking like he will.

after that, i dont see anyone doing it.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Roy Oswalt. He should reach 100 wins this year at age 28 (turns 28 in August) Until recently I would have said Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson but their strikout rates are decling rapidly. I just can't see them as dominating pitchers 10 years from now. Of course Tom Glavine lasted a long time...

[KCGHOST]

I just don't see anybody who is currently active making it.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I just don't see anybody who is currently active making it.
Roy Oswalt!

[rockin500]

Roy Oswalt!
well, he has said he planned to retire at age 33. take that for what its worth, though.

but even if he didnt plan on it, i still dont see him lasting that long. He'd still have to average 20 wins a year until hes 38 to reach 300.

[KCGHOST]

Roy Oswalt!


Oswalt is a fine pitcher, be he won't average 20 wins a season for another 11 consecutive seasons. Or 16.7 wins through 13 consecutive season.

[jpenrod]

I just don't see anybody who is currently active making it.

Wow! not even Glavine? he is 23 wins shyand has made it known that 300 is a very important goal for him. If he repeats last years perfomance that will leave him 12 shy, I am sure there is a team out there that will give him a 1 year contract with a second year option just to get a 300 game winner. Personally I think he gets to 290 this season and he comes back next year to get 300. The way he pitched the second half last year and he has looked in his first two starts it would not surprise me to see him hang around 2 or three more years and end up with 315-320.

[justice22]

I'm gonna go out on a limba nd mention dontrelle willis. his advantage is his movement, not too streneuos on the body. we have to look at longevity, and flamethrowers like oswalt have a TENDENCY to end earlier. Certainly we can look at the clemens and ryans of our lifetime, but on average they don't last as long.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

well, he has said he planned to retire at age 33. take that for what its worth, though.

but even if he didnt plan on it, i still dont see him lasting that long. He'd still have to average 20 wins a year until hes 38 to reach 300.
Why do you assume he'll stop at age 38? If you compare him to other 300 game winners since WWII through age 27 he rates well. Remember, winning 300 games is not easy. The question is this, "Is Roy Oswalt having the start to a career that can lead to 300 wins?". The answer is yes. That doesn't mean he will will 300 wins. A pitcher has to to meet certain win totals by specific ages t o have a shot. He needs 17 wins this year to reach 100. Having 100 wins by age 28-29 certianly gives a pitcher a shot at 300. If he pitches until age 40 he has 13 more seasons (including 2006). He would need to average 17 wins. Ih he pitches until age 42, the average goes down to 14.5 wins per season. Of course many things can happen between now and 2019. But to say that Oswalt has NO chance at this stage of his career is a little dogmatic.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Wow! not even Glavine? he is 23 wins shyand has made it known that 300 is a very important goal for him. If he repeats last years perfomance that will leave him 12 shy, I am sure there is a team out there that will give him a 1 year contract with a second year option just to get a 300 game winner. Personally I think he gets to 290 this season and he comes back next year to get 300. The way he pitched the second half last year and he has looked in his first two starts it would not surprise me to see him hang around 2 or three more years and end up with 315-320.
Obviously, Glavine has the best chance since he is the closest to 300 wins.

[Sockeye]

Johnson will make it, Glavine will make it if he wants to play long enough to do it. After that I think Martinez has an above average chance. All depends on his health and if he wants to play another 6-7 years which is about how long it will take him even if he stays healthy. After that the next best chance would be Mark Mulder but he's a long shot.

[DoubleX]

Since coming to the Mets, Glavine has lost or got a no decision in a bunch of close and low-scoring games, especially in the first half of seasons (remember a few years ago, Glavine was among the league leaders in ERA heading into the All-Star break and had a terrible record). If not for these decisions, Glavine could be in striking distance this year. Still, with the Mets playing like they are, if Glavine stays healthy, he should be in a good position to get it next year. And that might be it for a long time. I actually don't think Johnson has that good of chance given his age. He'd need at least two more good years to get there.

[STLCards2]

How about this for irony:

Tom Glavine gets hurt (I hope not, as Tommy is one of my favorite players) next season and ends his career with 292 wins, eight short of 300. Of course eight wins is the projected amount he would of won extra during the strike-shortened 1994-1995 seasons that Glavine so desperately supported serving as the player rep.

Again, I hope Glavine getes it, as I am a huge fan, but wouldn't that be something?

[CJMorello]

I think its to difficult to tell with Pedro. I am not sure if he can stay healthy enough and whether he will have the desire to play long enough to reach the total. But I think he has a good chance if he really wants too.

As for Randy Johnson I do not think he will win 300. He seems to be in rapid decline and at his age do not think he will be able to put together the years necessary to win 300.

[Appling]

I'd like to exclude Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson from the running, because I feel that Glavine certainly will get there, and Johnson will get there if he wants to play long enough. As for every other pitcher, I have my doubts that any of them will reach 300 career wins.

Are there any other players that have a decent chance of getting to 300 Wins?
I agree that Glavine will probably reach 300 wins. He is now 39 and he could do it in two more seasons.

I don't think Randy Johnson will make it. He needs three more seasons to do it, and at age 41 I don't think he has that much left in his body.

No one else is close enough to be considered "likely".

[geezer]

I remember when Maddux won his 300th game, that some analyst said that he might be the last or next to last pitcher to achieve that feat, is as difficult to achieve the 3,000-hit plateau.

[Go Bravos!!!#1]

How about this for irony:

Tom Glavine gets hurt (I hope not, as Tommy is one of my favorite players) next season and ends his career with 292 wins, eight short of 300. Of course eight wins is the projected amount he would of won extra during the strike-shortened 1994-1995 seasons that Glavine so desperately supported serving as the player rep.

Again, I hope Glavine getes it, as I am a huge fan, but wouldn't that be something?


:laugh That is the ultimate irony.

[geezer]

And Glavine is the active player with most 20-win seasons with 5, and has won 2 Cy Young Awards and played in 5 World Series.

[Brad Harris]

Glavine is the most likely active pitcher to reach 300 wins. I don't think we'll have a reasonable estimation of who's next until at least 10 years from now.

[jpenrod]

And Glavine is the active player with most 20-win seasons with 5, and has won 2 Cy Young Awards and played in 5 World Series.

And yet there seems to be some debate if he is a HOFer without winning 300.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Glavine is the most likely active pitcher to reach 300 wins. I don't think we'll have a reasonable estimation of who's next until at least 10 years from now.
I think in about five years we'll have a good gauge. Right now there are a few 20-somethings having pretty good early careers; Oswalt, Mulder, Hudson, Sabathia, Santana, etc.

[1905 Giants]

I think in about five years we'll have a good gauge. Right now there are a few 20-somethings having pretty good early careers; Oswalt, Mulder, Hudson, Sabathia, Santana, etc.

Oswalt: 28, 83 wins. I don't think so, think he'll burn out.

Mulder: 28, 97 wins. Fair Chance

Hudson: 30, 106 wins. I believe he will at least get close

Sabathia: 25, 69 wins. If he can hold up, he's got it

Santana: 27, 59 wins. See Oswalt

[DoubleX]

It's just not likely to happen among any of today's under 30 pitchers. There are so many things going against their chances:

Later Career Start: The fact that pitchers generally start their ML careers later now then they used to due to more players going to college than before and the fact that teams just seem to want to develop their pitchers in minors for longer now rather than expose them to big leagues to soon. And then when they do get called up, are usually not thrust right into the rotation but spend a year or two in the bullpen first.

Five Man Rotation and Bullpen Specialization: Due to the 5-man rotation, starters make much fewer starts in a season than they used. And due to the modern over-reliance on bullpens, starters come out in games much earlier than they used and lose a potential decision to the bullpen.

Coddling: This relates to both of the prior points, in that pitchers are coddled more than ever before. They are typically held in the minors longer than they would be in the past, and they make fewer starts and pitch less innings than they did in the past, and thus less opportunities for winning decisions. Morever, pitchers are pulled from starts and placed on the DL probably at a greater rate than ever. If a team has a young stud, he's seemingly scratched from a start whenever he feels just a twinge in his calf.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Oswalt: 28, 83 wins. I don't think so, think he'll burn out.

Mulder: 28, 97 wins. Fair Chance

Hudson: 30, 106 wins. I believe he will at least get close

Sabathia: 25, 69 wins. If he can hold up, he's got it

Santana: 27, 59 wins. See Oswalt
Why would Oswalt burn out? I think he'll end up with more wins than Mulder. Mulder's K rate has been going down for years. That is not a positive indicator for long term success.

[digglahhh]

Oswalt: 28, 83 wins. I don't think so, think he'll burn out.

Mulder: 28, 97 wins. Fair Chance

Hudson: 30, 106 wins. I believe he will at least get close

Sabathia: 25, 69 wins. If he can hold up, he's got it

Santana: 27, 59 wins. See Oswalt

Ironic that the two best pitchers on the list are given the slimmest chances.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

It's just not likely to happen among any of today's under 30 pitchers. There are so many things going against their chances:

Later Career Start: The fact that pitchers generally start their ML careers later now then they used to due to more players going to college than before and the fact that teams just seem to want to develop their pitchers in minors for longer now rather than expose them to big leagues to soon. And then when they do get called up, are usually not thrust right into the rotation but spend a year or two in the bullpen first.

Five Man Rotation and Bullpen Specialization: Due to the 5-man rotation, starters make much fewer starts in a season than they used. And due to the modern over-reliance on bullpens, starters come out in games much earlier than they used and lose a potential decision to the bullpen.

Coddling: This relates to both of the prior points, in that pitchers are coddled more than ever before. They are typically held in the minors longer than they would be in the past, and they make fewer starts and pitch less innings than they did in the past, and thus less opportunities for winning decisions. Morever, pitchers are pulled from starts and placed on the DL probably at a greater rate than ever. If a team has a young stud, he's seemingly scratched from a start whenever he feels just a twinge in his calf.
Winning 300 games has always been difficult. It takes talent, health, hard work, and some good luck. Are you saying that no under-30 pitcher can possibly have these traits? The things you mentioned in your post, they were saying the same thing about the pitchers form the 1980s. But somehow, Clemens and Maddux reached 300 wins and Glavine will proably make it as well,. Randy Johson has an outside chance and he got a REALLY late start to his career. He was 25 before he got his first win. There will be future pitchers with the talent of a Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, etc...

[yankillaz]

After Glavine, Johnson and probably Pedro, cross the 300-win mark i have doubts if anyone can get even close. It's gonna be similar to the 4000 hit mark. You can get to it, but you have to be really good for a very longtime, and i don't see anyone that has that possibility. Of course, if miracles happen:

Roy Oswalt, Dontrelle Willis and C.C. Sabathia.

[Brian McKenna]

i give glavine a possibility but that's it - forget your pet pitchers of today - be satisfied with 250 if they get there

[ZR56664]

I know it is early in his career but does anyone think that Carlos Zambrano could come close to 300 wins? He is 25 years old and his record is 48 and 36. I think Dontrelle Willis could get 300 in his career too.

[geezer]

Only Glavine has a shot of getting it, but I'll put Mulder and Oswalt on the list of prospective 300 game winners, Pedro is not getting there, sorry.

[Murderers Row]

Only Glavine has a shot of getting it, but I'll put Mulder and Oswalt on the list of prospective 300 game winners, Pedro is not getting there, sorry.

I think Halladay might have an outside shot if he can stay healthy.

[geezer]

The problem with Halladay is that he is 29 years old and he has only 82 wins, but if he keeps at a good pace, he can reach 250.

[Murderers Row]

2005 really threw him off. He was set for another 20 win season but broke his leg I believe.

[geezer]

And he has only 3 seasons with double digit wins, is not helping either.

[STLCards2]

Here are a couple of things to remember:

Of all of the members of the 300 win club, only ONE has fewer than 4,000 IP...Lefty Grove at 3,940 and his winning % was .680 or something close.

Moreso, of every pitcher in baseball history with IP totals below 3,940, not a single one of them even has 270 wins. (Randy Johnson will soon be the lone exception)

Bottom line, if a current pitcher can't get close to 4,000 IP, their chances of winning 300 games are highly improbable. Now how many current players do we see throwing 4,000 Innings?

BTW...Glavine is at 278 wins and 3991 IP

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Here are a couple of things to remember:

Of all of the members of the 300 win club, only ONE has fewer than 4,000 IP...Lefty Grove at 3,940 and his winning % was .680 or something close.

Moreso, of every pitcher in baseball history with IP totals below 3,940, not a single one of them even has 270 wins. (Randy Johnson will soon be the lone exception)

Bottom line, if a current pitcher can't get close to 4,000 IP, their chances of winning 300 games are highly improbable. Now how many current players do we see throwing 4,000 Innings?

BTW...Glavine is at 278 wins and 3991 IP

I looked at all the 300 game winners since WW II to get a gauge at where they were at age 30 in terms of wins. Here is the list:

Maddux 152
Clemens 146
Seaver 146
Sutton 139
Carlton 133
Ryan 122
Spahn 86 (an estimate, retrosheet doesn't have boxcores for the 1951 season)
Perry 76
Niekro 31 ( :crazy )

The top under 30 guys (Andy Pettitte had 116 wins by age 30)

Mulder 99 (age 28)
Oswalt 87 (age 28)
Buehrle 88 (age 26)
Halladay 82 (age 28)
K. Wood 70 (age 28-yes I know tons of injuries but he somehow has managed to win 70 games. Go figure)
Sabathia 69 (age 25)
Santana 59 (age 26)
Prior 41 (see K. Wood)
Zambrano 48 (age 24)
Beckett 44 (age 24)

That's a pretty good list. Now the guys 25 and under are very speculative of course given their young age. Now, there is no guarantee that any of these guys will win three hundred of course. But I think most of them had have positioned themselves to at least have a chance to make a run 300 wins. I think we'll get a better feel when they are in their early 30s. By then some one the list most assuredly will have fallen off the pace significantly.