If they retired right now

[ElHalo]

Ok, so Mark got me thinking. Of the guys who are currently Hall eligible, but who haven't really completed their careers yet... who would go in the Hall if they retired tomorrow?

Here's the criteria: The guy must have debuted no earlier than 1994, and must have had at most 100 PA's or 50 IP before the strike. He must be currently Hall eligible, meaning he debuted no later than 1997.

One other thing: This is a list for guys who would make it if they retired right now. No "on the path" guys. No "need just one more good year" guys. Right now. Though of course we'd love discussion on who you would think would be "on the path," or "need just one more good year"; they're just not the answers to this question.

I'll list all of the guys who satisfy the above and have any of the following criteria: 1000 games played, 100 W's, 100 saves (going into this season... Richie Sexson need not apply).

1994:
Garrett Anderson
Alex Gonzalez
Charles Johnson
Mike Lieberthal
John Mabry
Mike Matheny
Alex Rodriguez
Armando Benitez
Ricky Bottalico
Chan Ho Park
Ismael Valdes

1995:
Edgardo Alfonzo
Rich Aurilia
David Bell
Mike Cameron
Roger Cedeno
Tony Clark
Johnny Damon
Ray Durham
Jason Giambi
Brian Giles
Mark Grudzielanek
Scott Hatteberg
Bobby Higginson
Todd Hollandsworth
Derek Jeter
Matt Lawton
Mark Loretta
Phil Nevin
Orlando Palmeiro
Jorge Posada
Joe Randa
Shannon Stewart
Mike Sweeney
Michael Tucker
Jason Isringhausen
Esteban Loaiza
Hideo Nomo
Troy Percival
Andy Pettite
Brad Radke
Mariano Rivera
Jason Schmidt
Billy Wagner

1996:
Bobby Abreu
Tony Batista
Luis Castillo
Jermaine Dye
Darrin Erstad
Nomar Garciaparra
Vladimir Guerrero
Andruw Jones
Jason Kendall
Bill Mueller
Neifi Perez
Edgar Renteria
Scott Rolen
Scott Spiezio
Todd Walker
Dmitri Young
Danny Graves
Livan Hernandez

1997:
Orlando Cabrera
Sean Casey
Deivi Cruz
Jose Cruz
Juan Encarnacion
Jose Guillen
Todd Helton
Paul Konerko
Mark Kotsay
Derrick Lee
Magglio Ordonez
Miguel Tejada
Jose Vidro
Antonio Alfonseca
Bartolo Colon
Keith Foulke
Kevin Millwood
Matt Morris

[ElHalo]

On this list, I'll give an unqualified "yes" to:

Alex Rodriguez
Derek Jeter
Mariano Rivera
Vladimir Guerrero
Andruw Jones

I'll give a "tentative yes, but if they retired tomorrow I'd really have to think on it" to:

Billy Wagner
Todd Helton
Miguel Tejada

And that's it. I didn't see Adrian Beltre or Aramis Ramirez anywhere on these lists, though.

[leecemark]

--Yes to; A-Rod, Jeter and Rivera.
--Maybe to; Vlad (I think he will make it, but I don't know that I'd vote for him if he quit today).
--No, but likely on the way; Andruw Jones and Miguel Tejada.
--Possibly on the way; Todd Helton.
--The rest are unqualified no's for me although some could change my view on that with some additional big years.

[ElHalo]

--Yes to; A-Rod, Jeter and Rivera.
--Maybe to; Vlad (I think he will make it, but I don't know that I'd vote for him if he quit today).
--No, but likely on the way; Andruw Jones and Miguel Tejada.
--Possibly on the way; Todd Helton.
--The rest are unqualified no's for me although some could change my view on that with some additional big years.

I give that qualified yes to Tejada because I consider Tejada to be roughly equal to Vern Stephens, who's a borderline Hall'er in my opinion. And the entirety of Stephens' case had been made by the time he hit age 30.

Jones gets there on defense; supposedly, he's on a par with Speaker, Ashburn, Mays, and Carey, which was enough to get Carey in without much of anything else. Jones has the homers on top of that.

Helton I just feel bad for. If he played anywhere but Colorado, people would have a much higher opinion of him. His stats would be lower, sure, but they'd still be ridiculously high, and nobody would discount them.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

On this list, I'll give an unqualified "yes" to:

Alex Rodriguez
Derek Jeter
Mariano Rivera
Vladimir Guerrero
Andruw Jones

I'll give a "tentative yes, but if they retired tomorrow I'd really have to think on it" to:

Billy Wagner
Todd Helton
Miguel Tejada

And that's it. I didn't see Adrian Beltre or Aramis Ramirez anywhere on these lists, though.

Wait, Mr. "BA is Very, Very, Important to Me" has Anduw Jones on his list? The same Andruw Jones with a career .267 BA? The same Andruw Jones who other than his one .300 season has never hit higher than .277? The same Andruw Jones that hit 51 HRs with a .263 BA? The same Andruw Jones whose most "simliar" player is Jeromy Bernitz? What gives? :confused:

[Edgartohof]

Right off of the top, I'd say: Alex Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera

I guess I could also go with Andruw Jones, but not sure if I want to.

I could also be convinced for Todd Helton and Vladimir Guerrero.

I say that A-Rod is the #1 guy in the game today, by age 30, he has more HR's than most do in their 20+ year careers, and Mo is the best reliever out there. Any given year, someone may be better than him (Rivera), but the amazingly high level, and the consistency from him, and his post season performance do it for me, and he is still dominating, with one of his best years last season.

Personally, I would want Helton to do more, since he does play at Coors, just to say for certain that he has done enough. And now that I think about it, Vlad could go in too, but I still want something else out of him.

[ElHalo]

Wait, Mr. "BA is Very, Very, Important to Me" has Anduw Jones on his list? The same Andruw Jones with a career .267 BA? The same Andruw Jones who other than his one .300 season has never hit higher than .277? The same Andruw Jones that hit 51 HRs with a .263 BA? The same Andruw Jones whose most "simliar" player is Jeromy Bernitz? What gives? :confused:

I think I explained it in my previous post.

Andruw Jones is arguably the greatest defensive outfielder of all time (I wouldn't make that argument, but you could). That alone might be enough to make it to the Hall. You'll always hear me stump for Rabbit Maranville and Ray Schalk, and neither of them could hit anything. That doesn't mean that they (nor Jones) are top 100 -- or 150, etc, -- players, but it does, in my view, make them Hall of Famer's.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I think I explained it in my previous post.

Andruw Jones is arguably the greatest defensive outfielder of all time (I wouldn't make that argument, but you could). That alone might be enough to make it to the Hall. You'll always hear me stump for Rabbit Maranville and Ray Schalk, and neither of them could hit anything. That doesn't mean that they (nor Jones) are top 100 -- or 150, etc, -- players, but it does, in my view, make them Hall of Famer's.
I missed the previous post since I was typing my post when you posted it. Yes, I agree Jones is one hell of an outfielder. I wonder how he will age? Hoeever, Schalk was a catcher and Maranville was SS so we don't expect an much offense as we do from a centerfielder.

[538280]

I missed the previous post since I was typing my post when you posted it. Yes, I agree Jones is one hell of an outfielder. I wonder how he will age? Hoeever, Schalk was a catcher and Maranville was SS so we don't expect an much offense as we do from a centerfielder.

...but Jones was also a much, much, much better hitter than Maranville and Schalk. Jones is a guy who is certainly on pace for a HOF career but I wouldn't vote for right now.

I suspect we will see a defensive decline from him in the next few years though. Last year his defense was actually down from previous years and he's getting into his late 20s when defense really starts to decline. So far in my short baseball watching life, he's by far the best OFer I've ever seen.

I was asked on Jones/Edmonds a while ago, and that is one of the few cases where I just have to lay the sabermetric evidence to the side and go one my own personal experiences. I've watched both, Jones impresses me far more than Edmonds. Jones is a player who I've always felt is one of the best players in the game, even if the statistics say otherwise.

[leecemark]

--The statistics don't say otherwise. Jones is statistically the best defensive outfielder of all time. As for being a better hitter than Maranville or Schalk, he is but then he should be. Regardless of defensive ability an outfielder has to be able to hit at least above average before he can even be considered for the Hall of Fame (well if you're Lloyd Waner I guess league average did the trick:( ).

[ElHalo]

--The statistics don't say otherwise. Jones is statistically the best defensive outfielder of all time. As for being a better hitter than Maranville or Schalk, he is but then he should be. Regardless of defensive ability an outfielder has to be able to hit at least above average before he can even be considered for the Hall of Fame (well if you're Lloyd Waner I guess league average did the trick:( ).

What Mark said.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

...but Jones was also a much, much, much better hitter than Maranville and Schalk. Jones is a guy who is certainly on pace for a HOF career but I wouldn't vote for right now.

I suspect we will see a defensive decline from him in the next few years though. Last year his defense was actually down from previous years and he's getting into his late 20s when defense really starts to decline. So far in my short baseball watching life, he's by far the best OFer I've ever seen.

I was asked on Jones/Edmonds a while ago, and that is one of the few cases where I just have to lay the sabermetric evidence to the side and go one my own personal experiences. I've watched both, Jones impresses me far more than Edmonds. Jones is a player who I've always felt is one of the best players in the game, even if the statistics say otherwise.
I think Jones may end up a HoF. But El Halo was very specific in his question, asking who would be a no-doubt HoF if they retired right now. I don't see Jones as a no-doubt HoF right now. He has spent most of his career being a mild "disappointment" to most baseball fans. If his 2005 season is a real improvement then he might have a chance.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

...but Jones was also a much, much, much better hitter than Maranville and Schalk. Jones is a guy who is certainly on pace for a HOF career but I wouldn't vote for right now.

I suspect we will see a defensive decline from him in the next few years though. Last year his defense was actually down from previous years and he's getting into his late 20s when defense really starts to decline. So far in my short baseball watching life, he's by far the best OFer I've ever seen.

I was asked on Jones/Edmonds a while ago, and that is one of the few cases where I just have to lay the sabermetric evidence to the side and go one my own personal experiences. I've watched both, Jones impresses me far more than Edmonds. Jones is a player who I've always felt is one of the best players in the game, even if the statistics say otherwise.
Like Pete Rose? :D

[Imapotato]

NONE, IMO

Vlad and Jeter need high hit totals...Jeter is almost on the cusp...he has the personality, leadership, post season heroics...Vlad with his free swinging needs 3000 hits to establish himself as one of the great hitters of his time

Alex? C'mon...I mean a good player in this era...but vastly overrated by anyone who has seen HOW he gets those totals...he failed on a very good Mariner team, a very good Yankee team is the only team to go from 3-0 to losing the round. He needs high HR totals by the end of his career, which he most likely will get...right now if he retired, no way

Rivera? c'mon failed starter, to closer...if he was on the Padres he wouldn't have 1000 of the hype (and who is the closer for the Padres..lol)

They will make it eventually, and Rivera is a shoo in, despite my lack of appreciation for closers

Most of the picks here sound like they are out of the NY POst ;)

Lotta Yankee bias

[Windy City Fan]

In If They Never Played Another Inning ...
Rivera - The best one inning closer ever.

Wagner - Not far behind Rivera. Probably has some more work to do to get into the real HOF.

Rodriguez - Already a top 25 player, maybe top 10 or better when he's done.

Probable, but not there yet ...
Derek Jeter - Ask yourself, if the back end of his career looks like Ripken at the plate would you still support him? He's a good player and a probable HoFer, but he was never dominant. If he went to a steep, prolonged decline, I'd have trouble supporting him. Though, he's probably a lock to get in the real HOF, since he's a Yankee with a collection of shiny rings.

Vladimir Guerro - Lot of very good years, but none that absolutely jump off the page. A little longetivity will get him there.

We'll See ...
Andruw Jones - Great defense in CF + power looks like a winning forumla.

Todd Helton - A 4 or 5 more steady, productive years will probably do the trick.

Miguel Tejeda - I have a sneaky feeling he might not age well. OPS+ is pretty low for a slugger since he won't walk, but positional adjustment might get him in.

Derrek Lee - I know he's no where near HOF material right now, but his last season was excellent and he's off to a strong start this year. If this is the begining of a somewhat late peak, he might be worth keep an eye on.

[BoofBonser26]

Helton I just feel bad for. If he played anywhere but Colorado, people would have a much higher opinion of him. His stats would be lower, sure, but they'd still be ridiculously high, and nobody would discount them.
This is exactly how I feel. Coors is Coors, but a .337 career BA is still spectacular. I think people overcompensate when they consider Coors. Sure, his BA (and all his other stats) would be lower somewhere else, but that means, what, a .325 BA?

[538280]

Like Pete Rose? :D

Rose actually has a better peak than people realize, but too bad he couldn't play defense, anywhere.

[jalbright]

Right now, I personally would say with the restrictions given that only Rivera, Jeter and A-Rod would get my vote if their careers ended today. OTOH, with that talent, one must wonder why the Yankees haven't done better lately. There are a fair number of guys from this group who I would expect to eventually make it, but they've still got some work to do IMHO.

Jim Albright

[Honus Wagner Rules]

This is exactly how I feel. Coors is Coors, but a .337 career BA is still spectacular. I think people overcompensate when they consider Coors. Sure, his BA (and all his other stats) would be lower somewhere else, but that means, what, a .325 BA?

No, if Helton played in a real" ballbark, he's have a .300-.310 career BA, depending where he played.

[digglahhh]

Potato,

Alex Rodriguez hasn't failed, entire teams have failed. The fact that you equate an entire team's failure with his personal performance, is actually a convoluded way of expressing his true greatness.

If A-Rod retired today and wasn't elected to the Hall, the HOF should just close its doors, board up and call it a night.

[dl4060]

NONE, IMO



Alex? C'mon...I mean a good player in this era...but vastly overrated by anyone who has seen HOW he gets those totals...he failed on a very good Mariner team, a very good Yankee team is the only team to go from 3-0 to losing the round. He needs high HR totals by the end of his career, which he most likely will get...right now if he retired, no way






It was the team that failed, not Arod. Arod is the only player on this list who is absolutely definite. The question here is who WOULD go, not necessarily who SHOULD go, if I am reading it right. Arod tops the list for both of those categories. Rivera also would and should go. I do not think Jeter should go, but he probably would. Alex would no doubt be elected if he retired today. If both Arod and Jeter retired today, and Derek went and Alex did not, then we would need to find some new voters. People are certainly entitled to their opinion, but if someone tells me 2+2 is 5 I would not want them making decisions about math. Vlad really should go too. Career BA of .324, OPS+ of 148, OPS of .977, hits 35-40 homeruns a year. He also has an incredible throwing arm. He should go now. If he plays 3 more years, hits 100 more homeruns, and averages .310 over those years that would make him a no doubter, but he has done enough as it is.

[Brad Harris]

Great question, EH!

I'm more of a "peak" voter anyway, so if a player qualifies for the Hall (i.e. at least 10 seasons, not banned from baseball), then I'm likely to give him a full measure of confidence, even if his "counting" stats aren't up in the stratosphere.

My list:
Vladimir Guerrero
Todd Helton
Derek Jeter
Andruw Jones
Mariano Rivera
Alex Rodriguez
Scott Rolen - on a per game basis (only), arguably the 2nd-best third baseman in history


Special mention:
Jason Giambi - he'd be on the first list if his performance was "all natural"
Miguel Tejada - just not enough for me yet
Billy Wagner - great pitcher, but he's no Rivera