Is this a HOF career?

[Sockeye]

Seas G Ab R H 2b 3b Hr Rbi Sb Bb Avg Obp Slg
1998 14 58 12 16 5 3 0 7 3 3 .276 .317 .466
1999 156 663 112 194 27 7 22 108 27 46 .293 .337 .454
2000 98 372 49 92 15 4 7 44 13 35 .247 .309 .366
2001 155 617 106 189 32 12 24 101 31 52 .306 .362 .514
2002 162 637 114 174 44 7 29 105 35 71 .273 .346 .501
2003 141 521 102 160 14 10 26 100 41 72 .307 .389 .522
2004 149 599 121 160 36 9 38 104 42 92 .267 .367 .548
2005 151 582 83 155 34 2 16 78 17 56 .266 .330 .414
2006 155 600 110 175 35 3 28 102 24 70 .292 .366 .500
2007 146 554 100 171 31 2 21 99 15 68 .309 .384 .486
2008 160 626 112 194 37 6 34 118 32 75 .310 .384 .551
2009 153 580 100 165 32 2 25 101 18 59 .284 .351 .476
2010 150 567 93 160 31 2 28 92 12 56 .282 .347 .492
2011 135 542 91 152 25 1 22 90 11 53 .280 .345 .465
2012 141 563 93 154 27 1 23 89 9 60 .274 .343 .448
2013 129 500 84 133 22 2 19 77 7 51 .266 .334 .432
2014 110 419 75 110 19 0 16 65 7 55 .263 .348 .422
2015 114 460 76 124 23 1 11 64 8 42 .270 .331 .396
2016 101 452 68 119 18 1 10 60 3 30 .263 .309 .374
2017 70 252 47 52 10 0 5 43 1 21 .206 .267 .306

[Chisox]

I put in code so it would be easier to read. It would be better if we had some career numbers and other information to base our judgement on. I'd say there's a possibility and that's it. Who's stats are they supposed to be or just someone you made up? If he was a REALLY GOOD defensive outfielder, I'd say probably. If I didn't know any better, I just might think those are Andre Dawson's. (Of course Dawson played his prime in a much more pitcher friendly era.)

[Francoeurstein]

Do you mind showing us his totals???

[Sockeye]

Thank you I appreciate the code. It does make it much easier to read.

The player is an active player who career numbers are real throught 2005. 2006 on is of course projection but quite reasonably so IMO

Awards are harder if not nearly impossible to project. Rookie of the year, Currently a 2 time allstar centerfielder, looking at the projections I'll say he'll make it to another 3 allstar games or 5 total. average to above average defensively with good range and a career .982 fielding % and a range factor of 2.71 compared to a 2.36 league range factor.

[Sockeye]

Do you mind showing us his totals???

you mean you don't want to go through and add up all the numbers? Geesh make me do all the work I tell ya. lol no swet his career numbers by the projections are

2590 games
10,122 at-bats
1747 runs
2849 hits
517 doubles
75 triples
404 home runs
1617 RBIs
355 stolen bases
1067 walks
.282 AVG
.350 OBP
.467 SLG

[BoSox Rule]

Carlos Beltran is not a Hall of Famer.

[Sockeye]

Carlos Beltran is not a Hall of Famer.

The numbers say otherwise

[BoSox Rule]

The numbers say otherwise
Except from 2006 on those won't be his numbers.

If those were his numbers, then you have a slight case depending on the environment those years and his defense. However, the chances of him putting up those .880 years are very slim and I doubt he comes anywhere close to those numbers. You're assuming a player who already declined considerably last year will play well enough to enter the top 40 in games, top 20 in AB's, top 40 in hits, and top 35 in doubles all while playing his best baseball well after his prime years and the years he's already had, 3 of which were impressive.

[leecemark]

--Beltran could be a Hall of Famer if he has a few great years along the line to go along with the good ones he has put up. Maybe if he just has the career Sockeye projects for that matter. I'd say the odds are against him though.

[iPod]

The numbers say otherwise

Where did you get those projections? Did you just make them up? If so, you're saying you think he's a Hall of Famer because of his numbers, but you picked those numbers because of your faith in his ability to keep up Hall of Fame pace. Circular logic.

[RuthMayBond]

you mean you don't want to go through and add up all the numbers? Geesh make me do all the work I tell ya. lol no swet his career numbers by the projections are

2590 games
10,122 at-bats
1747 runs
2849 hits
517 doubles
75 triples
404 home runs
1617 RBIs
355 stolen bases
1067 walks
.282 AVG
.350 OBP
.467 SLGI've gotta think this would be a HOFer unless it was a 1B. But it ain't Beltran ,certainly not yet

[538280]

I wouldn't say to this point Beltran looks like a HOFer. He'd have to have five or more seasons at or above the level of his 2004 season, when he had a 136 OPS+. If he can have a 120 career OPS+, a long career, and remain a top flight defensive CFer he'll be a HOFer. But that is unlikely.

[538280]

you mean you don't want to go through and add up all the numbers? Geesh make me do all the work I tell ya. lol no swet his career numbers by the projections are

2590 games
10,122 at-bats
1747 runs
2849 hits
517 doubles
75 triples
404 home runs
1617 RBIs
355 stolen bases
1067 walks
.282 AVG
.350 OBP
.467 SLG

I'm sorry, there's no way a player with those averages in this era, playing neutral position (CF) would stick around for 2590 games. Unless he was one of the greatest CFers ever, which Beltran although he's good is not.

If the league averages stay the same, that would be a 106 OPS+. That's a slightly above average hitter. His BA would be 6 points above league, his OBP three, and his SLG 24 points above. That's not all that much more than an average hitter. It's not anywhere near a HOFer.

BTW, where did you get these projections from? Was it done in a systematic way? Did you just make them up?

[Brad Harris]

The 2006 Bill James Handbook projects Beltran (if healthy) to finished with 9,600 AB, 2,650 H, 511 2B, 391 HR, 1,620 R, 1,509 RBI, 1,098 BB and 396 SB.

Depending on what "normal" is for the next 10-12 years, those numbers might very well indicate a Hall of Fame candidate. However, Beltran would have to stay extremely healthy for a long period of time and his skills could not diminish much for those numbers to become a reality.

I wouldn't put money on Beltran reaching those plateaus.

Also...Beltran is likely to play half his games in Shea Stadium for the next several years, significantly diminishing his "baseball card numbers." I doubt he'll finish with anything resembling 400 home runs.

[Sockeye]

Except from 2006 on those won't be his numbers.

You're assuming a player who already declined considerably last year will play well enough to enter the top 40 in games, top 20 in AB's, top 40 in hits, and top 35 in doubles all while playing his best baseball well after his prime years and the years he's already had, 3 of which were impressive.

Which of those seasons numbers do you see him as being unable to obtain?

Have you ever heard of one bad season? One bad season at the age of 28 is not a "decline" it does not mean he is past his prime. A baseball players prime is considered to be between the ages of 26-32 so when calculating projections the peak years come during his "prime" which he still has 4 more seasons of. After that there is a decline that is reflected in the projections.

I can name example after example of great players who had a bad season during their prime and bounced back to have many more great seasons... Aaron 1964, Ruth 1925, Mays 1960, F.Robinson 1963, McGwire 1991, Killebrew 1968, Jackson 1976, Schmidt 1978, Mantle 1959, Foxx 1931, McCovey 1967, Mathews 1958, Ott 1933, Murray 1986, Gehrig 1929, Stargell 1968, Winfield 1980, B.Williams 1969, Snider 1952, I could go on and on...The point is that one off year at the age of 28 means nothing.

[Sockeye]

Where did you get those projections? Did you just make them up? If so, you're saying you think he's a Hall of Famer because of his numbers, but you picked those numbers because of your faith in his ability to keep up Hall of Fame pace. Circular logic.

Look at his seasons to date, his age of 28, and you tell me where you project his numbers to be for the rest of his career. Sure they are projected numbers but going by his career so far and his age I think it's likely we'll see him have at least a couple more "great" seasons before somewhat of a decline as he gets into his mid 30's

[Sockeye]

I've gotta think this would be a HOFer unless it was a 1B. But it ain't Beltran ,certainly not yet

No, very few players put up those numbers by the age of 28. But it is reasonable to project such numbers for Beltran without projecting any unreasonably huge seasons.

[Brad Harris]

I think a large part of his projected value will be how much longer his legs keep up. Will he continue to steal 20-40 bases per season for another 5 years? Will his success percentage remain as high as it is? His baserunning accounts for a significant percentage of his overall offensive value; in that respect, I think it will be difficult for him to maintain for too long into his thirties.

[Sockeye]

I wouldn't say to this point Beltran looks like a HOFer. He'd have to have five or more seasons at or above the level of his 2004 season, when he had a 136 OPS+. If he can have a 120 career OPS+, a long career, and remain a top flight defensive CFer he'll be a HOFer. But that is unlikely.

Wow 5 or more seasons at or above his 2004 season where he had a 136 OPS+ is asking a lot. Personally I don't put as much emphasis on a few big seasons as I do a player's career as a whole. I think he needs 1500+ runs, 2500+ hits, 400+ home runs, 1500+ RBI's, 300+ stolen bases, OPS of .800 or better. Is he does all that then he is in my book a 1st ballot HOFer. And I'll put the chances of that happening at 75%

[Sockeye]

I'm sorry, there's no way a player with those averages in this era, playing neutral position (CF) would stick around for 2590 games. Unless he was one of the greatest CFers ever, which Beltran although he's good is not.

If the league averages stay the same, that would be a 106 OPS+. That's a slightly above average hitter. His BA would be 6 points above league, his OBP three, and his SLG 24 points above. That's not all that much more than an average hitter. It's not anywhere near a HOFer.

BTW, where did you get these projections from? Was it done in a systematic way? Did you just make them up?

Currently Beltran's OPS+ is 109 and that is taking into account his off 05 season of 95 and his rather good 99 season where his OPS+ was 99 due to the steroid era. I think you'll see him end up with around a 110-115 career OPS+ (speaking of Beltran he just homered). I also must say I disagree with him not sticking around for 2590 career games. Just look at a player like Steve Finley or BJ Surhoff.

As for the projections....I used a formula for the total career numbers with the exception of triples & steals then created the season by season numbers through common sense, baseball instincts, and a vast knowledge past baseball history.

I have created another formula that deals with %'s of career totals reached by each age. But it's still a work in progress and needs tinkering with.

[Sockeye]

The 2006 Bill James Handbook projects Beltran (if healthy) to finished with 9,600 AB, 2,650 H, 511 2B, 391 HR, 1,620 R, 1,509 RBI, 1,098 BB and 396 SB.

Depending on what "normal" is for the next 10-12 years, those numbers might very well indicate a Hall of Fame candidate. However, Beltran would have to stay extremely healthy for a long period of time and his skills could not diminish much for those numbers to become a reality.

I wouldn't put money on Beltran reaching those plateaus.

Also...Beltran is likely to play half his games in Shea Stadium for the next several years, significantly diminishing his "baseball card numbers." I doubt he'll finish with anything resembling 400 home runs.

That is very interesting. I wasn't aware of the Bill James handbook and it's projections. Thatnk you for sharing that. Looking at the projections it's striking how similar to mine they are.

I'm not sure what year Beltran is signed through. Either 08 or 09. I have a slightly different take however. The mets lineup with the likes of Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Floyd, etc are going to score a ton of runs this year and in the next few years which will lead to more at-bats for Beltran and help even out any decrease in home runs due to shea stadium.

[Sockeye]

I think a large part of his projected value will be how much longer his legs keep up. Will he continue to steal 20-40 bases per season for another 5 years? Will his success percentage remain as high as it is? His baserunning accounts for a significant percentage of his overall offensive value; in that respect, I think it will be difficult for him to maintain for too long into his thirties.

Very perceptive. That is one big thing that I don't like about the OPS or OPS+ stat. It doesn't account for a players speed. Look at players such as Jose Reyes, Rafael Furcal, Jimmy Rollins, Scott Podsednik, etc. According to the OPS+ stat each of them are below average players. So while OPS should be a factor to consider it is more important for players with little or no speed. History shows us that speed catagories such as triples and steals see a statistically significant decrease with age. On average players play 42.4% of their games by the age of 28 but hit 60% of their triples and get 57.3% of stolen bases by the age of 28. Compared to only 43.3% of their home runs by age 28. So I do expect we'll see a decrease in his stolen base totals as is reflected by the projection of 24, 15, 32, 18, 12, 11, 9, 7, 7, 8, 3, 1

[RuthMayBond]

Currently Beltran's OPS+ is 109 and that is taking into account his off 05 season of 95 and his rather good 99 season where his OPS+ was 99 due to the steroid era. I think you'll see him end up with around a 110-115 career OPS+.That would put him only 8-13 points behind . . .
. . . Ray Lankford

[Sockeye]

That would put him only 8-13 points behind . . .
. . . Ray Lankford

And 1-6 points ahead of....
...Lou Brock

[538280]

And 1-6 points ahead of....
...Lou Brock

Brock is a HOFer based on WS heroics, longevity, and being a great basestealer. He wasn't really a particularly great player or someone I'd necessarily want to much on my team. He's in the HOF for peripheral reasons other than value to his team. Being ahead of him doesn't mean much at all.

[Sockeye]

Brock is a HOFer based on WS heroics, longevity, and being a great basestealer. He wasn't really a particularly great player or someone I'd necessarily want to much on my team. He's in the HOF for peripheral reasons other than value to his team. Being ahead of him doesn't mean much at all.

Did I just read this right? Lou Brock isn't someone you'd want on your team?? What does your team consist of? The greatest 25 players of all time? Ask any manager in baseball if they could have Lou Brock in his prime on their team and every single one would jump at the chance. He'd start on any team in baseball today and likely be one of that teams 3 best players. Carlos Beltran will be elected based on his great career totals, longevity, and him being a 5 tool player. Keep in mind by the time he retires we could well be looking at 400+ homers and 350-400 stolen bases. Only player in the history of baseball to put up those numbers is Barry Bonds. That is some pretty elite company.

[538280]

Did I just read this right? Lou Brock isn't someone you'd want on your team?? What does your team consist of? The greatest 25 players of all time? Ask any manager in baseball if they could have Lou Brock in his prime on their team and every single one would jump at the chance. He'd start on any team in baseball today and likely be one of that teams 3 best players. Carlos Beltran will be elected based on his great career totals, longevity, and him being a 5 tool player. Keep in mind by the time he retires we could well be looking at 400+ homers and 350-400 stolen bases. Only player in the history of baseball to put up those numbers is Barry Bonds. That is some pretty elite company.

Yeah, he lasted a long time, yeah he stole bases, yeah, yeah, yeah he did all that. But that's not what I want from my LFer. I'd much rather have the guy who's going to give me 30 home runs (and probably field better too) than Lou Brock.

Lou Brock has very little value outside of the basepaths, and it's impossible to have tons of value there. Career OPS+ 109? For a LFer replacement level is about 95. That's probably a below average figure. In his best seasons he was around 125. That's okay. It's not within 17 points of the career mark of Kevin Mitchell. Brock just wasn't anything more than an average hitter. He was a poor fielder. So, we have an average hitter, a poor fielder, and a an all time great baserunner. That just doesn't equal a guy I'd want on my team. I'd really take Kevin Mitchell before Brock. He's going to give me a big bat in the middle of the lineup and produce runs.

Brock should be in the HOF, because of his SB records, his 3000 hits, his WS heroics, but he's just not a very valuable player. Not a guy who I'd really want on my team.

[ElHalo]

Yeah, he lasted a long time, yeah he stole bases, yeah, yeah, yeah he did all that. But that's not what I want from my LFer. I'd much rather have the guy who's going to give me 30 home runs (and probably field better too) than Lou Brock.

Lou Brock has very little value outside of the basepaths, and it's impossible to have tons of value there. Career OPS+ 109? For a LFer replacement level is about 95. That's probably a below average figure. In his best seasons he was around 125. That's okay. It's not within 17 points of the career mark of Kevin Mitchell. Brock just wasn't anything more than an average hitter. He was a poor fielder. So, we have an average hitter, a poor fielder, and a an all time great baserunner. That just doesn't equal a guy I'd want on my team. I'd really take Kevin Mitchell before Brock. He's going to give me a big bat in the middle of the lineup and produce runs.

Brock should be in the HOF, because of his SB records, his 3000 hits, his WS heroics, but he's just not a very valuable player. Not a guy who I'd really want on my team.

I agreed with you completely right up until the end. Brock is BY FAR the worst player with 3000 hits, and, in my opinion, probably one of the ten worst position players in the Hall.

[BoSox Rule]

If this is supposed to impress me, I don't know what to say:Advanced Batting Statistics

<---------ADJUSTED FOR SEASON-------------> <------------ADJUSTED FOR ALL TIME------------->
AGE YEAR TEAM OUT UEQR EQA EQR BRAR BRAA FRAR FRAA PRAR WARP1 EQA EQR BRAR BRAA FRAR FRAA PRAR WARP2 WARP3
22 1961 CHI-N 10 0 -.117 0 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -0.2 -.116 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -0.2 -0.2
23 1962 CHI-N 332 58 .259 57 15 -1 12 -5 0 3.0 .257 56 14 -1 10 -5 0 2.6 2.6
24 1963 CHI-N 424 63 .258 71 18 -2 31 16 0 5.4 .257 71 17 -2 26 15 0 4.8 4.8
25 1964 CHI-N 165 23 .247 25 4 -4 11 5 0 1.7 .248 25 4 -3 9 5 0 1.5 1.5
25 1964 STL-N 304 81 .313 83 44 31 14 2 0 6.4 .314 84 46 32 11 2 0 6.2 6.2
26 1965 STL-N 487 99 .284 105 43 21 17 3 0 6.6 .285 105 43 21 16 2 0 6.6 6.6
27 1966 STL-N 479 92 .277 96 36 14 15 0 0 5.6 .278 98 37 15 13 -1 0 5.6 5.6
28 1967 STL-N 506 102 .296 121 56 33 5 -9 0 6.8 .296 121 56 33 3 -11 0 6.6 6.6
29 1968 STL-N 491 92 .298 119 57 34 7 -8 0 7.0 .297 118 56 34 4 -10 0 6.6 6.6
30 1969 STL-N 477 100 .291 109 48 26 6 -8 0 5.9 .287 106 45 23 5 -10 0 5.5 5.5
31 1970 STL-N 481 103 .281 101 40 18 5 -9 0 5.0 .280 100 39 17 2 -12 0 4.6 4.6
32 1971 STL-N 462 105 .304 118 59 38 2 -13 0 6.7 .301 115 57 36 0 -14 0 6.2 6.2
33 1972 STL-N 452 89 .289 101 44 23 0 -15 0 4.9 .287 100 42 22 -4 -17 0 4.3 4.4
34 1973 STL-N 483 100 .289 108 47 25 0 -17 0 5.3 .286 106 44 22 -3 -18 0 4.6 4.6
35 1974 STL-N 477 99 .288 106 46 24 9 -5 0 6.0 .287 105 45 23 7 -6 0 5.8 5.8
36 1975 STL-N 384 76 .283 82 33 16 7 -6 0 4.5 .280 80 31 14 5 -6 0 4.0 4.0
37 1976 STL-N 377 71 .281 79 31 14 6 -6 0 4.2 .279 78 30 13 5 -6 0 3.8 3.8
38 1977 STL-N 380 52 .242 55 6 -11 6 -4 0 1.4 .240 53 5 -12 6 -4 0 1.2 1.2
39 1978 STL-N 239 20 .209 24 -7 -17 4 -2 0 -0.3 .207 23 -7 -18 4 -2 0 -0.3 -0.3
40 1979 STL-N 299 52 .267 55 17 4 6 -3 0 2.6 .265 54 16 3 5 -3 0 2.3 2.3

.2851 7709 1477 .281 1614 636 285 163 -84 0 88.3 .280 1598 620 269 123 -102 0 82.3 82.4

[1905 Giants]

there's no way Beltran will end up with those numbers:

1) His BA is only 6 points higher than league average.
2) His OBP is only 3 points higher than league average.
3)His OPS is only 109

Other reasons he won't make the Hall:
1) Below average Fielding (6 points below)
2) Batting Average High of .307

[Sockeye]

there's no way Beltran will end up with those numbers:

1) His BA is only 6 points higher than league average.
2) His OBP is only 3 points higher than league average.
3)His OPS is only 109

Other reasons he won't make the Hall:
1) Below average Fielding (6 points below)
2) Batting Average High of .307


So lets say he plays another 12 seasons. What do you think his average season will look like? Give me some numbers.

[ElHalo]

So lets say he plays another 12 seasons. What do you think his average season will look like? Give me some numbers.

Assume he does play another 12 seasons (which he won't). I'd say his average season would look like...

.255/.330/.430, 80 R, 15 HR, 80 RBI, 15 SB

Those aren't anywhere close to HoF numbers.

[538280]

So lets say he plays another 12 seasons. What do you think his average season will look like? Give me some numbers.

Sockeye, let's be honest here. Your career projection shows a CFer with a 106 OPS+. That player is just not a HOFer, even if he gets great longevity (which would never happen unless they were awesome in the field, a la Max Carey). Your projection is completely unrealistic, and it is boosted by the fact Beltran is playing in a big offensive era. Your whole argument IMO is moot.

[Sockeye]

Assume he does play another 12 seasons (which he won't). I'd say his average season would look like...

.255/.330/.430, 80 R, 15 HR, 80 RBI, 15 SB

Those aren't anywhere close to HoF numbers.

Okay so you are saying then that if Beltran plays another 12 seasons or until age 40 based on your own projections of his average season he'll end up with 1659 runs, 2670 hits, 342 home runs, 1607 RBI's, 387 stolen bases. How many eligible guys with those numbers aren't in the HOF? Answer..... NOBODY!!

[Sockeye]

Sockeye, let's be honest here. Your career projection shows a CFer with a 106 OPS+. That player is just not a HOFer, even if he gets great longevity (which would never happen unless they were awesome in the field, a la Max Carey). Your projection is completely unrealistic, and it is boosted by the fact Beltran is playing in a big offensive era. Your whole argument IMO is moot.

I'm afraid not. My projections are amazingly similar to some guy..oh what was his name....uh oh... Bill James..yeah that's him. He doesn't know much about stats or anything does he? So I'd say I'm not the only one that projects Carlos Beltran to have a long career with excellent career totals. Which is really what it all comes down to. (a) will he stay healthy, (b) will he have longevity, if the answers to a & b are yes then (c) will his career totals earn him a spot in cooperstown. And I can't image how a player with 1700+ runs, 2800+ hits, 400+ home runs, 1600+ RBI's, and 300+ steals wouldn't be voted into the HOF.

[ElHalo]

Okay so you are saying then that if Beltran plays another 12 seasons or until age 40 based on your own projections of his average season he'll end up with 1659 runs, 2670 hits, 342 home runs, 1607 RBI's, 387 stolen bases. How many eligible guys with those numbers aren't in the HOF? Answer..... NOBODY!!

You keep talking about career totals as if it made any difference to anything. Why do you do that?

[iPod]

I'm afraid not. My projections are amazingly similar to some guy..oh what was his name....uh oh... Bill James..yeah that's him. He doesn't know much about stats or anything does he? So I'd say I'm not the only one that projects Carlos Beltran to have a long career with excellent career totals. Which is really what it all comes down to. (a) will he stay healthy, (b) will he have longevity, if the answers to a & b are yes then (c) will his career totals earn him a spot in cooperstown. And I can't image how a player with 1700+ runs, 2800+ hits, 400+ home runs, 1600+ RBI's, and 300+ steals wouldn't be voted into the HOF.

You also predict Adrian freakin' Beltre to have 2800+ hits, 400+ home runs, 1600 RBI...

[Sockeye]

You keep talking about career totals as if it made any difference to anything. Why do you do that?

Career totals mean a lot when considering a players chances at the HOF. There has never been a player with 500+ home runs or 3000+ hits or 300+ wins to not make the HOF. However there are a TON of guys with a high OPS+ that aren't in the HOF. Longevity means more to voters than does production. Plain and simple. Look at Piano Legs for instance. Do you think he deserves to be in the HOF? In 14 seasons he had a OPS+ of 130 or better 9 times and a career OPS+ of 136. I fail to see him on the HOF list. In fact he NEVER even appeared on a ballot!! The only hall of fame that he qualifies for is the Nickname hall of fame.

[Sockeye]

You also predict Adrian freakin' Beltre to have 2800+ hits, 400+ home runs, 1600 RBI...

Actually Beltre started at a younger age and has less of an injury history. I predicted he'll end up with 3000+ hits. But that's a different thread. :)

[Fuzzy Bear]

Beltran's prolem as a HOFer is that he's a broad based player, and, as such, will have some difficulty getting the support of the writers. He won't have a milestone that sticks out, unless he lasts long enough to get 3,000 hits, and he'll have to go a long, long way to do that.

[J W]

Projections are fun, but it's really still way too early to figure out the fate of Beltran. Unfortunately for him, odds are (thanks to his history as a player) that he will lose the ability to play effective CF and when that happens, he'll be reduced to platoon duty in the OF. He's not quite powerful enough (especially with any decline) to play DH for a good team... and bad teams won't be able to afford him.

The list of most similar batters to Beltran through age 28 is impressive, though not littered with HOFers:

1) Andre Dawson (953)
2) Dave Winfield (942)*
3) Jack Clark (936)
4) Bobby Bonds (935)
5) Reggie Smith (934)
6) Gus Bell (929)
7) Dale Murphy (923)
8) Harold Baines (923)
9) Johnny Callison (919)
10) Billy Williams (917)*

As mentioned before, Dawson is the closest. Dawson was a better fielder, had a better arm, and had a number of real solid years after age 30, able to convert himself to (for his era) power-hitting RFer with ease. And though I think he'll eventually make it with the BBWAA, he's obviously no slam-dunk. Most players in Beltran's situation don't fare as well when they get older.

[sturg1dj]

Beltran is still pretty young, and his hitting could get better.....if it does and he continues to play CF so well, then he has a chance. But his hitting has to get better

[digglahhh]

Some people think that Jim Edmonds is a HOFer. I think when all is said and done, Beltran could easily have a better HOF resume than Edmonds. I think he'll end up somewhere in the grey area.

Beltran had a defining moment in the '04 postseason and I think he would need to have some more defining moments to make a real impression on the HOF voters. Although if he finishes this season the way he started it, the NY hype machine will realy get rolling and once it does it can do some crazy things to players' reps.

As a cosolation, I would elect him to the Fantasy Baseball HOF if there was such a thing.

There could very well be a few guys from this era that wind up with HOF numbers, but without an "identity" the voters probably won't give them much consideration.

In 40 years I think people are going to be looking at Bobby Abreu's page on baseballreference and asking themselves why the hell this guy isn't in the HOF. Those who lived out his years will know, but it will be hard to capture in words and explain to the next generation.

[538280]

The criticisms of Abreu may be valid, but none can be proven. They say he can't field....well, I've never thought he was a good fielder either, but the league's managers voted him a Gold Glove. They say he's not clutch, that he dissapears in the key situation. But, his situational stats are TREMENDOUS. They say he lacks great power, but he really does have very good power. They say he's only good in the bandbox of Citizen's Bank, yet he did very well before in Veterans Stadium. He's extremely fast, one of the most disciplined hitters of all time, and is a power hitter with a very high batting average as well. Close to a five tool player, his fielding is the only thing that may hold him back. He always shies away from the wall, sure, but what does that prove? Is that reason enough to keep a guy with his stats out of the HOF? It's hard to say why to most current fans he doesn't seem like anything special.

[digglahhh]

Chris, I'm actually a huge Abreu fan. The Yankee fans talk about acquiring him, but I don't think he would thrive in New York.

His value and greatness is too nuanced for the myopic common fan consumed with counting stats and HR totals. That's part of what's happening in Philly, I think the fans really don't understand how good he is and how much he contributes to that team. They love Ryan Howard and his sexy HR and RBI totals. I would love to see how many of Howard's RBI are Abreu scoring, I bet if you remove the self created RBI from the HR, Abreu runs account for MORE THAN HALF of Howard's RBI.

If Abreu played in Colorado he would put up the same video game seasons that Walker did- another damn fine, borderline HOFer that was unable to capture the attention of the baseball community.

He does however lack a full identity, and what is known about him is not all that great. He's seen as a "non clutch" and "non team" guy. Whatever any of that means... This is the perception Chris, I'm not saying I agree with it.

The one thing that irks me about Abreu is that he has a lot of talent defensively but suffers from Mannyism. He is often unfocused and sometimes lazy, he makes way more mental errors than physical ones. He has very good speed and an awesome arm, but he doesn't get nearly what he should, defensively, out of his talent.

[ElHalo]

Beltran's prolem as a HOFer is that he's a broad based player, and, as such, will have some difficulty getting the support of the writers. He won't have a milestone that sticks out, unless he lasts long enough to get 3,000 hits, and he'll have to go a long, long way to do that.

I looked it over... where was Carlos Beltran brought up in this thread? The HoF references were with regards to Adrian Beltre.

[ElHalo]

They say he's not clutch, that he dissapears in the key situation. But, his situational stats are TREMENDOUS.

Again; how do you know? Using any typical statistical analysis, an extra innings grand slam in a game in September would appear to be very clutch. But if it comes when you're ten games back in the standings, it's not so much. A leadoff single in the second inning of a scoreless game in July wouldn't show up as particularly clutch... but it can be a key situation in the right circumstances. There's no way to define clutch situations, so there's certainly no way to quantify them.

[538280]

Again; how do you know? Using any typical statistical analysis, an extra innings grand slam in a game in September would appear to be very clutch. But if it comes when you're ten games back in the standings, it's not so much. A leadoff single in the second inning of a scoreless game in July wouldn't show up as particularly clutch... but it can be a key situation in the right circumstances. There's no way to define clutch situations, so there's certainly no way to quantify them.

I agree with you, there is no true way to statistically quantify clutch hitting. I was just pointing out that for all the griping about how un-clutch Abreu is, you certainly couldn't tell by his situational stats. I showed them on the other thread.

I love Bobby Abreu as well. I remember watching the HR Derby last year (which was a huge joke, and probably ruined Abreu's swing for the 2nd half, but that's another story). He looked like he was having so much fun to me and taking everything in stride. I"ve loved him ever since, and certainly he's on a pace to be, statistically, perhaps one of the top 50 or so players of all time. I doubt the general public will ever realize that though.

Abreu has been one of the biggest walkers of all time thus far, he has walked 100+ times every year since 1999, and he's on an amazing walk pace so far this year. It's always been strange to me that he, of all people, would be the guy to take so many walks. He's Venezuelan, to start off, and few Latin American players walk much, he doesn't seem to be a smart or heady type player, he is even sort of lazy and almost sometimes doesn't seem to care all that much (I like what Digs said "Mannyism"). He just doesn't seem to have the personaility type of a guy who would take a ton of walks.

[ElHalo]

he doesn't seem to be a smart or heady type player, he is even sort of lazy and almost sometimes doesn't seem to care all that much (I like what Digs said "Mannyism").

This seems to me to be perfectly in line with what I'd expect of players who walk a lot. They're too stupid to realize that they're supposed to make contact, and too lazy to bother trying. It's certainly not a "heady" play to stand there and do nothing while a ballgame is going on around you. How does that not mesh with your idea of great walkers?

[538280]

This seems to me to be perfectly in line with what I'd expect of players who walk a lot. They're too stupid to realize that they're supposed to make contact, and too lazy to bother trying. It's certainly not a "heady" play to stand there and do nothing while a ballgame is going on around you. How does that not mesh with your idea of great walkers?

No, EH, smart players are smart enough to not swing at bad pitches. Hence, they walk more.

[roachboyevo]

Carlos beltran's hitting has gotten tremendously better this season. He's gotten older as hes become a patient power hitter with speed. he'll hit atleast 40hr this season and if his transition as a player continues throughout the rest of his prime years(about 3-4 more) he'll have no problem reaching 400hr and 350 sbs. and if he wins an MVP or the mets win a WS he's a 1st ballot guy.

[digglahhh]

This seems to me to be perfectly in line with what I'd expect of players who walk a lot. They're too stupid to realize that they're supposed to make contact, and too lazy to bother trying. It's certainly not a "heady" play to stand there and do nothing while a ballgame is going on around you. How does that not mesh with your idea of great walkers?

With all due respect, EH, you couldn't give an accurate description of Bobby Abreu to a police sketch artist if he robbed you at gunpoint in broad daylight on 5th Avenue.

That's not being insulting either, that's a cogent synthesis of the clues you've given us about the patterns of your observation and fanship.

[digglahhh]

Carlos beltran's hitting has gotten tremendously better this season. He's gotten older as hes become a patient power hitter with speed. he'll hit atleast 40hr this season and if his transition as a player continues throughout the rest of his prime years(about 3-4 more) he'll have no problem reaching 400hr and 350 sbs. and if he wins an MVP or the mets win a WS he's a 1st ballot guy.

First ballot is completely out of reach, IMO. Continuing this year's pace and repeating it for a few more years and then a productive decline phase could allow him to sneak in.

His defense is pretty good too, some GGs might help.

[hubkittel]

unless beltran hits one of the Magic Numbers (3000 H, 500 HR) or plays for a string of world series champions, his HoF chances are going to be dicey. one of the problems right now for OFs trying to get into the Hall is that, unless you hit the Numbers or have four rings, you have to be better than jim rice or dale murphy or andre dawson to get in. those are the guys blocking the way for OFs-great players who have been deemed un-Hall worthy (to coin a phrase). the same problem exists at other positions (for a pitcher to get in you have to have better numbers than jim katt or jack morris or bert blyleven, etc). the only real argument that wil get beltran in the Hall is that he was clearly the best player at his position for a number of years and, right now, that's not an argument you can make. great player, not a Hall of Famer.