View Full Version : Would you put this guy in the Hall?
micsmith
04-06-2006, 12:28 PM
The MVP award is an honor bestowed upon a player for a single year's worth of playing. Induction into the Hall is not based upon one, two, or even several years, but on an entire career's worth of playing. Given these basic stats, would you put this fictional player into the Hall?
Player Name: Miguel El Halo, Jr.
Year HR Hits RBI Team
1 16 132 41 Rockies
2 21 155 82 Rangers
3 28 166 94 Rangers
4 28 140 92 Rangers
5 25 148 88 D-Backs
6 26 152 76 D-Backs
7 18 136 65 D-Backs
8 29 155 94 Rockies
9 29 143 79 Cubs
10 26 139 96 Cubs
11 24 168 96 Reds
12 25 166 98 Reds
13 29 150 90 Cubs
14 28 150 88 Phillies
15 29 144 91 Rockies
16 25 159 79 Rockies
17 25 149 96 Red Sox
18 24 138 97 Red Sox
19 25 141 88 Red Sox
20 16 129 65 Phillies
21 11 106 38 Phillies
totals 507 3066 1733
Home Runs – 20th all-time
Hits – 20th all-time
RBI – 18th all-time
No all-star appearances. No gold gloves or silver sluggers. No ROY or MVP award (never top 10). No postseason play. He’s a left fielder. Played in mostly hitter’s parks. Never led the league in anything. Never hit over .300. No steroids. Went on DL list five times during his career. Never in top ten in Hits, RBI, or Home Runs for his league.
Brooklyn
04-06-2006, 12:40 PM
Unbelievable conssitency for a long period of time. But based on the stats you provided, no HOF by my vote. Looks loike an example of quantity over quality.
To really evaluate, I'd need to see rate stats, but considering he never hit .300 for the season, it is doubtful that would help.
DoubleX
04-06-2006, 12:46 PM
If this mostly came in the pre-juiced era, this guy has to go in. Only the 4th player with 500+ HR and 3000+ hits. Additionally, if this is pre-juiced era, the guy probably would have been closer to the league-lead in some years and thus in the context of his time, he would have appeared more dominant.
This guy seems like a slightly better (or more juiced) version of Harold Baines (though Baines did hit over .300 a few times).
Captain Cold Nose
04-06-2006, 12:47 PM
Wow, the ultimate compiler. A snazzier Baines over the course of a career without Baines's single season highlights.
This is a great argument against magic numbers.
RuthMayBond
04-06-2006, 12:47 PM
The MVP award is an honor bestowed upon a player for a single year's worth of playing. Induction into the Hall is not based upon one, two, or even several years, but on an entire career's worth of playing. Given these basic stats, would you put this fictional player into the Hall?
Player Name: Miguel El Halo, Jr.The name "El Halo" disqualifies him right there
<Home Runs – 20th all-time
Hits – 20th all-time
RBI – 18th all-time
No all-star appearances. Never in top ten in Hits, RBI, or Home Runs for his league.>
The first part and second part don't seem to be compatible with each other
Captain Cold Nose
04-06-2006, 12:57 PM
The name "El Halo" disqualifies him right there
<Home Runs – 20th all-time
Hits – 20th all-time
RBI – 18th all-time
No all-star appearances. Never in top ten in Hits, RBI, or Home Runs for his league.>
The first part and second part don't seem to be compatible with each other
Imagine 20 years of Kirk Gibson. Subtract just a little bit from RBI and HR year to year and remove the MVP he won not for his numbers and there you go.
julusnc
04-06-2006, 12:59 PM
Palmeiro numbers? I would vote for him.
RuthMayBond
04-06-2006, 01:06 PM
Imagine 20 years of Kirk Gibson. Subtract just a little bit from RBI and HR year to year
Just a LITTLE bit? :rolleyes:
<and remove the MVP he won not for his numbers and there you go.>
Yeah, better production for longer but no MVP :rolleyes:
You realize Gibson had a LOT of partial seasons?
Captain Cold Nose
04-06-2006, 01:15 PM
Just a LITTLE bit? :rolleyes:
<and remove the MVP he won not for his numbers and there you go.>
Yeah, better production for longer but no MVP :rolleyes:
You realize Gibson had a LOT of partial seasons?
Not until now. :crazy
RedSoxVT92
04-06-2006, 01:33 PM
That guy would be first ballot hall of famer. Anybody with 500 hr's and 3000 hits deserves to get in unless theve taken steroids (palmerio). If this guy had avoided steroid suspison he could get in easily. But of course he is a fictional player...
leecemark
04-06-2006, 01:45 PM
--A player who never made an All Star team or finished in the top 10 in the MVP voting intuitively seems to NOT be a Hall of Famer. However, it would be a rather remarkable achievement, in and of itself, to have so many good seasons without making a few All Star teams.
KCGHOST
04-06-2006, 02:13 PM
If you look at Lee Stevens in 1999 he had 24 HR's, 146 hits, and 81 rbi's. For his efforts he received no all-star nod, nor a gold glove or silver slugger, and didn't finish in the top ten of any major offensive category. Had Lee had 20 more seasons just like that one he would total 504/3066/1701 in the 3 categories mentioned and the offensive environment had remained the same (smack dab in the steroids era) he wouldn't get a whiff of the HoF.
RuthMayBond
04-06-2006, 02:26 PM
If you look at Lee Stevens in 1999 he had 24 HR's, 146 hits, and 81 rbi's. For his efforts he received no all-star nod, nor a gold glove or silver slugger, and didn't finish in the top ten of any major offensive category. Had Lee had 20 more seasons just like thatThat's where it fails. No one is going to have the same season 20 times in a row. There is a starting point, a learning curve and a rise, and then a decline. He's gonna be above that average some year which will make him All-Star/top 10 in a league
RedSoxVT92
04-06-2006, 03:34 PM
Even if he never made an all star team (which is unlikley) He would still probably be in the hall as long as he is not tainted by steroids. If some one is that cosistant for that long that is an acheivment in itself. 3000 hits is a almost automatic in because when it comes down to voting people are going to see 3000 hits 500 homeruns and think HOF. and even if he didnt get on the first ballot he would probably get in eventually even if he was not dominant during his career.
Cougar
04-06-2006, 03:39 PM
This guy isn't going to keep a job as a LF with those #'s. Is he?
It's a thought exercise, I know.
Francoeurstein
04-06-2006, 03:44 PM
The MVP award is an honor bestowed upon a player for a single year's worth of playing. Induction into the Hall is not based upon one, two, or even several years, but on an entire career's worth of playing. Given these basic stats, would you put this fictional player into the Hall?
Player Name: Miguel El Halo, Jr.
Year HR Hits RBI Team
1 16 132 41 Rockies
2 21 155 82 Rangers
3 28 166 94 Rangers
4 28 140 92 Rangers
5 25 148 88 D-Backs
6 26 152 76 D-Backs
7 18 136 65 D-Backs
8 29 155 94 Rockies
9 29 143 79 Cubs
10 26 139 96 Cubs
11 24 168 96 Reds
12 25 166 98 Reds
13 29 150 90 Cubs
14 28 150 88 Phillies
15 29 144 91 Rockies
16 25 159 79 Rockies
17 25 149 96 Red Sox
18 24 138 97 Red Sox
19 25 141 88 Red Sox
20 16 129 65 Phillies
21 11 106 38 Phillies
totals 507 3066 1733
Home Runs – 20th all-time
Hits – 20th all-time
RBI – 18th all-time
No all-star appearances. No gold gloves or silver sluggers. No ROY or MVP award (never top 10). No postseason play. He’s a left fielder. Played in mostly hitter’s parks. Never led the league in anything. Never hit over .300. No steroids. Went on DL list five times during his career. Never in top ten in Hits, RBI, or Home Runs for his league.
If Dave Kingman never got inducted why should he???
KCGHOST
04-06-2006, 03:57 PM
That's where it fails. No one is going to have the same season 20 times in a row. There is a starting point, a learning curve and a rise, and then a decline. He's gonna be above that average some year which will make him All-Star/top 10 in a league
I don't see occurring either.
538280
04-06-2006, 06:36 PM
I can't really make a decision with only the info you give us. What kind of offensive context did he play in? I assume it's probably the modern era, because it would be near impossible for a player in a pitcher's era to post those numbers without making an All Star Game, but that is something that needs clarification.
Also, did he walk? If the player was an extremely patient hitter and always had OBPs of about .400 then he's in easy, regardless of era.
I do find it unrealistic that such a player would never make the All Star Game. You'd think after about 15 years someone would realize how remarkably consistent this guy has been and put him on the team.
ElHalo
04-06-2006, 09:06 PM
I guess it's kind of an honor to have a mediocre ballplayer named after me.
This guy is definitely not a HoF'er in my book. He's the definition of why I don't think guys like Neikro and Wynn and Sutton should be in the Hall.
I do find it unrealistic that such a player would never make the All Star Game. You'd think after about 15 years someone would realize how remarkably consistent this guy has been and put him on the team.
Kent Hrbek made the All Star game his rookie year, then put up numbers very similar to these for a decade and never went again.
dl4060
04-06-2006, 09:52 PM
The consistency is amazing. I have a hard time because I do not see any rate stats and I would need to to make a decision. He would be an interesting case, because most players go through ups and downs, while he was pretty much the same throughtout his career. If he had a 3-4 year peak where he was a superstar, but then fizzled faster it would be easier to swallow. Being good to very good every year, but never great, it would be hard for me to put him in the hall. Unless his lifetime BA is .310 or higher and his OBP over .400, in that case I say put him in. By the way, how did you come up with this, did you look for players with similar numbers and then just fit the seasons together into a career? I would be interested to know whose seasons those are, if in fact they are real.
We're essentially talking about a guy with absolutely no mystique surrounding him. Nothing at all to point to as evidence of his greatness; none of the awards you mentioned, but also no seasons of 30 homers, 100 RBI, .300 average, or 170 hits. His teams obviously didn't fight particularly hard to keep him around.
Given his low hit totals (per season), this was also probably either Dave Kingman, or he had a curiously low number of at-bats (per season). If we assume a career batting average between .275 and .299, he would have only averaged between 488 and 530 at-bats per season. Almost every member of the 3000 hit club is above 600 at-bats per 162, the lowest being Eddie Collins at 570. But... paradoxically, this would also give him one of the worst batting averages in the 3000 hit club, assuming an intermediate value of .285 or so (513 AB per season in that case).
This could be caused by lots of walks, meaning he had a normal amount of plate appearances for a 3000 hit club member, only a low number of at-bats, or he could have been one of those guys who won't play with a cold. If it's because he drew a lot of walks, his OBP is probably very high, which... coupled with his power, would certainly give him a nice career OPS+ and probably at least a couple of high placings in league OBP (strictly assuming that he has 0 black ink; otherwise, probably at least 2 or 3 leads in OBP). If it's because he missed a lot of assorted games, that hurts his case even further.
RuthMayBond
04-07-2006, 07:52 AM
Kent Hrbek made the All Star game his rookie year, then put up numbers very similar to these for a decade and never went again.Hrbek may have trouble making the All-Star game because he starts slow (AND was in a small market), but let's see if he should have gone in 1988. Oh yeah, he was beaten out by Don Mattingly :grouchy
Brad Harris
04-07-2006, 08:12 AM
We can deduce the offensive context because the player debuted in his first season with the Rockies. Therefore, this hypothetical player plays from 1993-2013 or later!
Let's use the earliest possible season, however - 1993 - and begin from there. That would mean this player has accumulated 324 HR, 1,950 hits, and 1,091 RBI in his first 13 seasons. Presumably, he'd be somewhere between the ages of 31-33.
Looking at actual players who are around those ages and had remotely similar numbers, I arrive at Chipper Jones and Shawn Green. It seems to me that if Green has an equally productive second half of his career, that's precisely who we're looking at with this ficticious numbers.
RuthMayBond
04-07-2006, 08:14 AM
We can deduce the offensive context because the player debuted in his first season with the Rockies. Therefore, this hypothetical player plays from 1993-2013 or later!
Let's use the earliest possible season, however - 1993 - and begin from there. That would mean this player has accumulated 324 HR, 1,950 hits, and 1,091 RBI in his first 13 seasons. Presumably, he'd be somewhere between the ages of 31-33.
Looking at actual players who are around those ages and had remotely similar numbers, I arrive at Chipper Jones and Shawn Green. It seems to me that if Green has an equally productive second half of his career, that's precisely who we're looking at with this ficticious numbers.I guess, but Green's ALREADY been a two-time All-Star, and I don't need to tell you about Chipper
jpenrod
04-07-2006, 08:58 AM
We can deduce the offensive context because the player debuted in his first season with the Rockies. Therefore, this hypothetical player plays from 1993-2013 or later!
Let's use the earliest possible season, however - 1993 - and begin from there. That would mean this player has accumulated 324 HR, 1,950 hits, and 1,091 RBI in his first 13 seasons. Presumably, he'd be somewhere between the ages of 31-33.
Looking at actual players who are around those ages and had remotely similar numbers, I arrive at Chipper Jones and Shawn Green. It seems to me that if Green has an equally productive second half of his career, that's precisely who we're looking at with this ficticious numbers.
Green may be the most comparable player, but he also had a 5 year strecth that he produced above this fiction player, pluse he has finished in the top 10 in HR4 times, RBI 3 times and hits 2 plus 2 all-star games, 1 SS, and 1 GG.
Realistically I do not see this player making the HOF because I do not see a player like this existing. Somewhere along the line he will get some recognition in the All-star game, or by some fluke he finishes in the top 10 in one of those categories. Otherwise I do not know this guy sticks around as an everyday player for 20 years. This guy has no peak, no ascent and no decline. A very odd player indeed.