The "National" argument has no merit

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Over the past few days the "National" argument has been used several times in varios threads. For the uninitiated that is the position that Japanese players can't be inducted to the Baseball HoF in Cooperstown because they didn't play major league baseball. This "argument" has NO MERIT. As Jim Albright has shown, other than the name, the HoF has no formal rules barring players who didn't play in North America from being inducted. So please stop using this useless argument. :o

Ok, carry on...

[runningshoes]

Can't argue with that.

Unless, of course, someone wants to argue protectionism.

Wouldn't be the first time that word reared its ugly head in the same sentence as the United States of America.

[NeverJustAGame]

Over the past few days the "National" argument has been used several times in varios threads. For the uninitiated that is the position that Japanese players can't be inducted to the Baseball HoF in Cooperstown because they didn't play major league baseball. This "argument" has NO MERIT. As Jim Albright has shown, other than the name, the HoF has no formal rules barring players who didn't play in North America from being inducted. So please stop using this useless argument. :o

Ok, carry on...

"No Merit" in your opinion.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Can't argue with that.

Unless, of course, someone wants to argue protectionism.

Wouldn't be the first time that word reared its ugly head in the same sentence as the United States of America.
Protectionism, eh? Isn't that the reason why Sadaharu Oh, etc. never played Major League Baseball? Because the baseball powers that be did not allow it?
Based on how the museum is currently set up, and the apparent mission statement they have in being a history museum for baseball at the national level, what purpose would it serve to induct Japanese players? Is there a reason to expand their horizons? Is Babe Ruth in the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame?

[Mike D.]

The rules for election to the Baseball Hall of Fame do clearly state the following, though:


3. Eligible Candidates — Candidates to be eligible must meet the following requirements:

A baseball player must have been active as a player in the Major Leagues at some time during a period beginning twenty (20) years before and ending five (5) years prior to election.
Player must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons, some part of which must have been within the period described in 3 (A).
Player shall have ceased to be an active player in the Major Leagues at least five (5) calendar years preceding the election but may be otherwise connected with baseball.


That excludes from eligibility anyone who didn't appear in the majors in the US. Some exceptions have been made for Negro Leaguers. I don't see it being carried over to players from other countries.

[runningshoes]

Protectionism, eh? Isn't that the reason why Sadaharu Oh, etc. never played Major League Baseball? Because the baseball powers that be did not allow it?
Based on how the museum is currently set up, and the apparent mission statement they have in being a history museum for baseball at the national level, what purpose would it serve to induct Japanese players? Is there a reason to expand their horizons? Is Babe Ruth in the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame?

You probably already know this, but you rarely find protectionist attitudes embedded in written policies.

Very few people around here offer good arguments for not "internationalizing" Cooperstown. All I ever read is: it's the National Baseball Hall of Fame, and that reeks of protectionism.

The Japanese are very protective of their culture and that's probably why you won't find The Bambino in their Hall as well. It's culture is one of ingrained racism so I don't expect that to change anytime soon.

Having said that, I've never really like the "tit for tat" attitudes in any issue.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

The rules for election to the Baseball Hall of Fame do clearly state the following, though:



That excludes from eligibility anyone who didn't appear in the majors in the US. Some exceptions have been made for Negro Leaguers. I don't see it being carried over to players from other countries.

Then why should it be carried over even to Negro Leaguers? when the HoF originally opened Negro Leaguers were not even considers. Can you imagine of if someone would have advocated for the Negro Leaguers in the 1930s. That idea would have been ridiculed.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

The reason that the issue of Negro Leaguers in the HoF came to forfront was because of Ted Williams' HoF speech. He argued for the Negro Leaguers in his speech. That was amazing. This started the floodgate to include Negro Leaguers. Before Williams speech there was not much thought about this.

[runningshoes]

Then why should it be carried over even to Negro Leaguers? when the HoF originally opened Negro Leaguers were not even considers. Can you imagine of if someone would have advocated for the Negro Leaguers in the 1930s. That idea would have been ridiculed.

Because MLB recognized it's protectionism disllowed so many great ball players the opportunity of playing within its ranks.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Because MLB recognized it's protectionism disllowed so many great ball players the opportunity of playing within its ranks.
However, when the issue came about in the 1960s many still were not moved by this argument, Ford Frick being one. He argued that regardless of the unfairness of the black players not beign allowed to play major league baseball, they shouldn't be allowed in because they were simply not eligible by the HoF rules. Man, those silly rules...

[Captain Cold Nose]

You probably already know this, but you rarely find protectionist attitudes embedded in written policies.

Very few people around here offer good arguments for not "internationalizing" Cooperstown. All I ever read is: it's the National Baseball Hall of Fame, and that reeks of protectionism.

The Japanese are very protective of their culture and that's probably why you won't find The Bambino in their Hall as well. It's culture is one of ingrained racism so I don't expect that to change anytime soon.

Having said that, I've never really like the "tit for tat" attitudes in any issue.
Of course, you're right on all points, Troy.
While there is not a good reason for not "internationalizing" the baseball hall of fame, what is the reason to do so. Bear in mind why the Hall of Fame was started to begin with, the reasons why it is in Cooperstown, and the fact it is a museum geared toward baseball played in this country. It has never portrayed itself as anything beyond that.

[runningshoes]

However, when the issue came about in the 1960s many still were not moved by this argument, Ford Frick being one. He argued that regardless of the unfairness of the black players not beign allowed to play major league baseball, they shouldn't be allowed in because they were simply not eligible by the HoF rules. Man, those silly rules...

I agree....there are a lots of silly rules.

One need look no further than the 2nd amendment to understand your country's love of silly rules. :D

[Mike D.]

Then why should it be carried over even to Negro Leaguers? when the HoF originally opened Negro Leaguers were not even considers. Can you imagine of if someone would have advocated for the Negro Leaguers in the 1930s. That idea would have been ridiculed.

The negro leaugers are a special case. Since they were not allowed to play in major league baseball, their league became pretty much the highest level they could play at in the United States. Basially, it became, in essence, a Major League. It's a bit of a play of words to fit in the rules, but I think considering the nasty history of race relations in baseball and the country as a whole, it's a worthwhile exception.

Now, why the big push to induct players from other countries? Are other countries asking for this? They have their own Hall's of Fame. Why should we think that inductuction into Cooperstown is somehow a "better" honor for those players?

Plus, it's a logistical nightmare. Who would vote for these players? What leagues would you include? And more importantly, once you increase the size of the Hall of Fame by that much, where do you put everything? It certainly won't fit in the current building in Cooperstown.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

The negro leaugers are a special case. Since they were not allowed to play in major league baseball, their league became pretty much the highest level they could play at in the United States. Basially, it became, in essence, a Major League. It's a bit of a play of words to fit in the rules, but I think considering the nasty history of race relations in baseball and the country as a whole, it's a worthwhile exception.

Now, why the big push to induct players from other countries? Are other countries asking for this? They have their own Hall's of Fame. Why should we think that inductuction into Cooperstown is somehow a "better" honor for those players?

Plus, it's a logistical nightmare. Who would vote for these players? What leagues would you include? And more importantly, once you increase the size of the Hall of Fame by that much, where do you put everything? It certainly won't fit in the current building in Cooperstown.

Again no one is arguing for this. We are talking about expanding the HoF to include the Japanese Leagues only, for now at least. We are talking about only considering the greatest Japanese Leaguers, which is not that many in the first place.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I agree....there are a lots of silly rules.

One need look no further than the 2nd amendment to understand your country's love of silly rules. :D

I personally have never owned a gun and proably never will but I have no issues with the 2nd amendment. :D What's the law in the Philippines? I did a quick read of the Phillipine Constitution and I found no mention of right to bear arms or any limitiations on bearing arms.

[runningshoes]

I personally have never owned a gun and proably never will but I have no issues with the 2nd amendment. :D What's the law in the Philippines? I did a quick read of the Phillipine Constitution and I found no mention of right to bear arms or any limitiations on bearing arms.

Well..you're supposed to have a permit, but you can get one of them on any street corner.

I'll take a picture of the boys loading up an armoured car if I see one and I have my camera on me at the same time. They have all the old M-16's from the US.

We had a shoot out around the corner a few months ago. Bands of robbers are always trying to take those "cars" down and they always seem to end up dead. :eek:

I was browsing a gun store the other day. Glocks seem to be the pistol of choice. My neighbour, he's Filipino-Canadian, has a 9mm Glock.

[jalbright]

The negro leaugers are a special case. Since they were not allowed to play in major league baseball, their league became pretty much the highest level they could play at in the United States. Basially, it became, in essence, a Major League. It's a bit of a play of words to fit in the rules, but I think considering the nasty history of race relations in baseball and the country as a whole, it's a worthwhile exception.

Now, why the big push to induct players from other countries? Are other countries asking for this? They have their own Hall's of Fame. Why should we think that inductuction into Cooperstown is somehow a "better" honor for those players?

Plus, it's a logistical nightmare. Who would vote for these players? What leagues would you include? And more importantly, once you increase the size of the Hall of Fame by that much, where do you put everything? It certainly won't fit in the current building in Cooperstown.
We've been discussing such issues in a thread in the international section in this thread. http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=41490
I don't care to repeat here everything I've said there. I don't think the logistical nightmare you foresee exists--especially not in terms of the facilities if we use a Negro League style standard--the ones who would be inducted would have to demonstrate that they were the quality of player we usually associate with the HOF (not that they have to be of the caliber of Ruth, Mays, Cobb, Johnson, et al, but they should be above the quality of the clear mistakes of the Hall--I'll let you fill in your own list.)

The push is coming from a) the globalization of the game (including such things as the World Baseball Cup, and b) a rising awareness that at least in Japan, there have been HOF caliber ballplayers who were excluded by virtue of business decisions by the majors (that is, the majors screwed them because it was profitable to do so, not because they were racist--but IMO, the reason behind the exclusionary policy still stinks).

Jim Albright

[Mike D.]

Again no one is arguing for this. We are talking about expanding the HoF to include the Japanese Leagues only, for now at least. We are talking about only considering the greatest Japanese Leaguers, which is not that many in the first place.

Not that many great Japanese players? What makes you say that? The Japanese have been playing ball a long time...probably a lot of deserving players. If you only want to induct the best of the best, where do you draw the line? We can't figure that out for American players, never mind Japanese.

Does the Japanese league have it's own Hall of Fame, btw?

[Mike D.]

We've been discussing such issues in a thread in the international section in this thread. http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=41490
I don't care to repeat here everything I've said there.

I can't blame you...this discussion was already going on in two places, then this thread was started, making it three. Talk about overkill. :D


The push is coming from a) the globalization of the game (including such things as the World Baseball Cup, and b) a rising awareness that at least in Japan, there have been HOF caliber ballplayers who were excluded by virtue of business decisions by the majors (that is, the majors screwed them because it was profitable to do so, not because they were racist--but IMO, the reason behind the exclusionary policy still stinks).


I don't know...I guess I just don't see the demand. Where is the calls for this from the Japanese? I would think they'd prefer to have their own hall, but maybe I've just not heard of the demand for a "Japanese wing" in Cooperstown. I wouldn't be adamantly against it...just seems like they'd be doing something that nobody is really asking for.

I would think a exhibit of Japanese baseball greats (with items on loan from a Japanese HOF) would be a nice tribute, without the need for opening the Hall to a whole new group.

[dgarza]

I have no issues with the 2nd amendment. :D I do. The subordinate clauses do not connect properly with the independent clause. Terrible grammar! Go back to school.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I do. The subordinate clauses do not connect properly with the independent clause. Terrible grammar! Go back to school.
Actually, I'm currently taking graduate classes at Stanford University. Also, the 2nd Ammendment was written in the 1780s. Is the grammer correct per 1780s English standards?

[dgarza]

Actually, I'm currently taking graduate classes at Stanford University. Also, the 2nd Ammendment was written in the 1780s. Is the grammer correct per 1780s English standards?
Not sure exactly, but I should really hope not. Carefully read the amendment, try to diagram the thing.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

We've been discussing such issues in a thread in the international section in this thread. http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=41490
I don't care to repeat here everything I've said there. I don't think the logistical nightmare you foresee exists--especially not in terms of the facilities if we use a Negro League style standard--the ones who would be inducted would have to demonstrate that they were the quality of player we usually associate with the HOF (not that they have to be of the caliber of Ruth, Mays, Cobb, Johnson, et al, but they should be above the quality of the clear mistakes of the Hall--I'll let you fill in your own list.)

The push is coming from a) the globalization of the game (including such things as the World Baseball Cup, and b) a rising awareness that at least in Japan, there have been HOF caliber ballplayers who were excluded by virtue of business decisions by the majors (that is, the majors screwed them because it was profitable to do so, not because they were racist--but IMO, the reason behind the exclusionary policy still stinks).

Jim Albright
Jim, I'm sorry for opening up another "Oh" thread. :o I just wanted to address the "national" argument specifically. It just seems like a rather weak argument when one really thinks about. I'm with you on this. Hopefully others will join the cause. It's a long shot at best and we propbably won't see any fruit for at least 15-20 years. Ichiro is a key person. If he gets inducted that will be huge plus.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Not sure exactly, but I should really hope not. Carefully read the amendment, try to diagram the thing.
The entir Bill of Rights is written this way. I just assumed that that was how they spoke in the 1780s or at least that how they wrote.

[KCGHOST]

This whole crusade to include players who did not play in the U.S. in the National Baseball HoF is simply drivel. I can only guess that this is being proposed by people who think that if international players didn't play in the U.S. that it is somehow our fault. Pure drivel.

Instead of worrying about how the U.S. has somehow discriminated against Sadahara Oh why don't you worry about the the terrible treatment he received in Japan because one of his parents is not Japanese?

[RuthMayBond]

Well..you're supposed to have a permit, but you can get one of them on any street corner.

I'll take a picture of the boys loading up an armoured car if I see one and I have my camera on me at the same time. They have all the old M-16's from the US.

We had a shoot out around the corner a few months ago. Bands of robbers are always trying to take those "cars" down and they always seem to end up dead. :eek: Wow, great country :clapping

[Honus Wagner Rules]

This whole crusade to include players who did not play in the U.S. in the National Baseball HoF is simply drivel. I can only guess that this is being proposed by people who think that if international players didn't play in the U.S. that it is somehow our fault. Pure drivel.

Instead of worrying about how the U.S. has somehow discriminated against Sadahara Oh why don't you worry about the the terrible treatment he received in Japan because one of his parents is not Japanese?
If the whole argument is "drivel" then why bother posting in this thread? If you have a logical argument against having international players then please, by all means, state it. Something like this, "I believe that international players shouldn't be inducted for the following reasons:

-Reason 1
-Reason 2
-Reason 3
...etc.

Simply stating that it is "drivel" is completely meaningless.

[dgarza]

The entir Bill of Rights is written this way. I just assumed that that was how they spoke in the 1780s or at least that how they wrote.
Hey, you're right. There's some sloppy writing throughout that thing.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Well..you're supposed to have a permit, but you can get one of them on any street corner.

I'll take a picture of the boys loading up an armoured car if I see one and I have my camera on me at the same time. They have all the old M-16's from the US.

We had a shoot out around the corner a few months ago. Bands of robbers are always trying to take those "cars" down and they always seem to end up dead. :eek:

I was browsing a gun store the other day. Glocks seem to be the pistol of choice. My neighbour, he's Filipino-Canadian, has a 9mm Glock.
Wow. It sounds like the Wild West out there. :o

[dgarza]

I can only guess that this is being proposed by people who think that if international players didn't play in the U.S. that it is somehow our fault.

Where did this come from? Can you be more specific about who you are referring to when you say "our fault"?

[jalbright]

This whole crusade to include players who did not play in the U.S. in the National Baseball HoF is simply drivel. I can only guess that this is being proposed by people who think that if international players didn't play in the U.S. that it is somehow our fault. Pure drivel.

Instead of worrying about how the U.S. has somehow discriminated against Sadahara Oh why don't you worry about the the terrible treatment he received in Japan because one of his parents is not Japanese?

The last sentence has nothing to do with this debate, so I will ignore it. It is a classic red herring. If you look at one or more of the other current threads, (try the international section one on international players in the HOF), you will see that the majors signed off on an agreement to respect the Japanese reserve clause in 1965 (it came about to resolve the Masanori Murakami affair) if they respected ours. By virtue of the way Japanese law operates combined with the majors disinterest in pursuing Japanese high school and college kids and the refusal of Japanese teams to let the players go, this has tied those players to that system. Until the 1990's, they were tied forever, now it is "only" nine years. It's a business decision rather than racism, but if you think it's noble or even neutral, you've got no moral compass.

Jim Albright

[wamby]

Well..you're supposed to have a permit, but you can get one of them on any street corner.

I'll take a picture of the boys loading up an armoured car if I see one and I have my camera on me at the same time. They have all the old M-16's from the US.

We had a shoot out around the corner a few months ago. Bands of robbers are always trying to take those "cars" down and they always seem to end up dead. :eek:

I was browsing a gun store the other day. Glocks seem to be the pistol of choice. My neighbour, he's Filipino-Canadian, has a 9mm Glock.

Ah, the Phillipines. Once in Olongapo I caught a kid trying to pick my pocket. A local authority came over (I don't know if he was a cop or a soldier) to see what the trouble was. After I told him, the guy pulled out his pistol and cracked the kid on the side of the head. This was no love tap either. He then offered me the psitol and said I could hit the kid also. I very politely declined.

[Williamsburg2599]

Wow. It sounds like the Wild West out there.
Minus the Glocks and "Horseless Carriages"

[runningshoes]

Wow, great country :clapping

You better believe it, sonny. ;)

[RuthMayBond]

You better believe it, sonny. ;)
Tell us about the baseball hall of fame in your great country

[runningshoes]

Tell us about the baseball hall of fame in your great country

Is that supposed to be funny?

You can read about it here.

http://www.baseballhalloffame.ca/

[RuthMayBond]

Is that supposed to be funny?

You can read about it here.

http://www.baseballhalloffame.ca/
Your tag says you're from the Phillippines, but my point is made, the Canadian Hall of Fame concentrates on CANADIAN players, so why rag on the U.S. Hall?

[runningshoes]

Your tag says you're from the Phillippines, but my point is made, the Canadian Hall of Fame concentrates on CANADIAN players, so why rag on the U.S. Hall?

My tag says my location is the Philippines.

I have no problem with The Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame electing foreigners to its ranks.

Hopefully we will some day.

[RuthMayBond]

My tag says my location is the Philippines.

I have no problem with The Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame electing foreigners to its ranks.

Hopefully we will some day.Let's try to stick with the point. OTHER countries tend to NOT elect foreigners, so why rag on the U.S.? (we may some day too)

[Captain Cold Nose]

I'm not sure what you're trying to get out of Troy, RMB, because it's HWR who the staunch advocate of this.
Besides, Troy already said he was not a fan of the tit for tat defense. Think that's changed in the last couple days?

[runningshoes]

Let's try to stick with the point. OTHER countries tend to NOT elect foreigners, so why rag on the U.S.? (we may some day too)

I don't know if anyone is ragging on the US.

Cooperstown has the greatest exposure of all the halls.

MLB is trying to spread its influence throughout the globe and electing players who are greats in thier own counrty can only be a good thing as long as the players are on a par with ML players.

[RuthMayBond]

I'm not sure what you're trying to get out of Troy, RMB, because it's HWR who the staunch advocate of this.
Um, post 2, post 4 ...

<Besides, Troy already said he was not a fan of the tit for tat defense. Think that's changed in the last couple days?>

:laugh

[runningshoes]

Um, post 2, post 4 ...

<Besides, Troy already said he was not a fan of the tit for tat defense. Think that's changed in the last couple days?>

:laugh

I don't believe in tit for tat.

I believe in MLB taking the lead as well as everyone's money.

I am curious why you decided to comment on a post about guns to start making your point, though.

[RuthMayBond]

I don't believe in tit for tat.

I believe in MLB taking the lead as well as everyone's money.

I am curious why you decided to comment on a post about guns to start making your point, though.Maybe I'm tired of people running my country down, especially when yours is far from perfect as we've seen :waving

[runningshoes]

Maybe I'm tired of people running my country down, especially when yours is far from perfect as we've seen :waving

I knew what you were you were coming from when you quoted my post about weapons but I was still able to resist the urge to point out US shortcomings when it comes to firearms despit the fact I could probably write s book.

As for Canada being far from perfect:

You're right..but remember; I don't get all worked up if I forget to lock my doors when I leave the house.

Oh..what's that you say, you were refering to the Philippines?

Sorry..not my country. :laugh

[RuthMayBond]

I knew what you were you were coming from when you quoted my post about weapons but I was still able to resist the urge to point out US shortcomings when it comes to firearms despit the fact I could probably write s book.I was comparing with the Philippines, a much smaller country

<Oh..what's that you say, you were refering to the Philippines?

Sorry..not my country. :laugh >

Not my fault if you have a misleading tagline :waving

[runningshoes]

I was comparing with the Philippines, a much smaller country

<Oh..what's that you say, you were refering to the Philippines?

Sorry..not my country. :laugh >

Not my fault if you have a misleading tagline :waving

Nothing misleading about my tagline..my location is in Manila.

[Chisox]

If the whole argument is "drivel" then why bother posting in this thread? If you have a logical argument against having international players then please, by all means, state it. Something like this, "I believe that international players shouldn't be inducted for the following reasons:

-Reason 1
-Reason 2
-Reason 3
...etc.

Simply stating that it is "drivel" is completely meaningless.
I have absolutely no problem with them trying to have as much baseball in the HOF as possible; in fact I'm all the more for it.
However, I do think that there should be seperation between what we percieve to be the HOF (the greatest players of their generaton) and anything else that is honored.
My reason for not including them in that-What evidence do we have that they were GOOD ENOUGH to be among the best of their generation compared to MLB?
Exactly how many of them NOW have proven themselves to be HOF worthy? Exactly how many native Japaneese have built anything resembling HOF resumes int he bigs? Ichiro's the closest, and I don't personally think he's had anything resembling a HOF WORTHY career (although I know I'm in the minority in that.)
Here's a question-where do players from the bigs go when they've proven themselves not to be big league ready or washed up? Answer-Japan.
Didn't Tuffy Rhodes hit something around 50HR, actually TYING Oh's record? How did Tuffy do in the bigs? Would anyone confuse him with deserving the HOF? Would that change had he spent all his time in the Japaneese Leagues and never played a single game in MLB and had a Japaneese name?

[jalbright]

My reason for not including them in that-What evidence do we have that they were GOOD ENOUGH to be among the best of their generation compared to MLB?
Exactly how many of them NOW have proven themselves to be HOF worthy? Exactly how many native Japaneese have built anything resembling HOF resumes int he bigs? Ichiro's the closest, and I don't personally think he's had anything resembling a HOF WORTHY career (although I know I'm in the minority in that.)
Here's a question-where do players from the bigs go when they've proven themselves not to be big league ready or washed up? Answer-Japan.
Didn't Tuffy Rhodes hit something around 50HR, actually TYING Oh's record? How did Tuffy do in the bigs? Would anyone confuse him with deserving the HOF? Would that change had he spent all his time in the Japaneese Leagues and never played a single game in MLB and had a Japaneese name?

Look, I don't know how many times I've written this, but I've documented the case for Oh quite extensively here: http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright12.html and here http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright13.html This case is not premised on the idea Japanese baseball is the equal of the majors. In fact, from a careful analysis of guys who have played in both places, I have concluded the amounts to downgrade Japanese performance to reflect major league equivalents. Before you pooh-pooh such numbers, just look at how the method has worked for guys who have come to the majors in these articles: http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright19.html http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright19.html http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright29.html and http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright35.html

I think you will find my analysis of at least the hitters to be on the mark. Also, with respect to cases like Tuffy Rhodes, please see this post of mine: http://baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=361354&postcount=35

Jim Albright

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I have absolutely no problem with them trying to have as much baseball in the HOF as possible; in fact I'm all the more for it.
However, I do think that there should be seperation between what we percieve to be the HOF (the greatest players of their generaton) and anything else that is honored.
My reason for not including them in that-What evidence do we have that they were GOOD ENOUGH to be among the best of their generation compared to MLB?
Exactly how many of them NOW have proven themselves to be HOF worthy? Exactly how many native Japaneese have built anything resembling HOF resumes int he bigs? Ichiro's the closest, and I don't personally think he's had anything resembling a HOF WORTHY career (although I know I'm in the minority in that.)
Here's a question-where do players from the bigs go when they've proven themselves not to be big league ready or washed up? Answer-Japan.
Didn't Tuffy Rhodes hit something around 50HR, actually TYING Oh's record? How did Tuffy do in the bigs? Would anyone confuse him with deserving the HOF? Would that change had he spent all his time in the Japaneese Leagues and never played a single game in MLB and had a Japaneese name?
You really don't think Ichiro is have a HoF worthy career far, five years into his major league career? If you believe that then there is really nothing further to say. :rolleyes:

[Calif_Eagle]

Cant wait to see the results of the Japanese Veterans Committee meetings and selections... Hope there is no Flankie Flisch on that panel... But even if there was, how many casual American baseball fans would even know or care if mistakes were made? It's appears to be an almost universal belief here that we are already have at least 30 less than fully qualified MLB HOF-ers. It also seems to me, after a review of all 50 pages of HOF discussion that there is considerable disagreement as to how and who to evaluate as being worthy from America's Negro Leagues. Now we are to add the Japanese Leagues? One other purpose that the *National* Baseball HOF serves is as a tourist attraction. To put this bluntly, who in the USA is going to care or get excited about the selection of Japanese players who played the whole careers over there? People whose names, teams, careers are unknown to all but the very hardest of the hard core baseball fans. Who will even care to go and see them inducted or view their plaques? Many BBF posters and fans might. (Some?) But I think most typical fans will wonder WTH are they (the BB HOF) doing to screw things up THIS time? I just dont see this as anything that adds to our HOF or it's mission. Now, players like Hideo Nomo or Ichiro, if they one day qualify based on their MLB performances, thats a whole different matter. My 2 cents worth... OH btw, as an aside on a different topic I was reading about earlier tonight. Bill James in the HOF as a pioneer? No. Bill James as a Spink Award Winner for exceptional baseball writing? Most definitely. Again, one man's opinion.

[Chisox]

You really don't think Ichiro is have a HoF worthy career far, five years into his major league career? If you believe that then there is really nothing further to say. :rolleyes:
I don't think Willie Keeler is a HOFer, either. Yes, he's the best pure hitter in the game. I don't care. He still gets out A LOT for someone with that I of an average, or about normal overall for good player, but he has absolutely no power whatsoever or contributes real scoring to his team. He is in no way, shape, or form a team changing player. He also relies on his speed, which means when it goes, he'll drop to a line .290/.330/.350 (not that much of a decline, I might add) and people will realize his low value. Also, look at his RF competition. Vlad, Ordonez, and Sheffield, IMO all are better all-time players at this point.

[Chisox]

Look, I don't know how many times I've written this, but I've documented the case for Oh quite extensively here: http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright12.html and here http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright13.html This case is not premised on the idea Japanese baseball is the equal of the majors. In fact, from a careful analysis of guys who have played in both places, I have concluded the amounts to downgrade Japanese performance to reflect major league equivalents. Before you pooh-pooh such numbers, just look at how the method has worked for guys who have come to the majors in these articles: http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright19.html http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright19.html http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright29.html and http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright35.html
If those were projections, they were awfully high in the power departments. Why was Matsui only given 126G his last two seasons? But still 30+HR for a guy who's constantly around 15? Ichiro's extra base numbers are EXTREMELY high. There's seasons he can't manage 30 combined extra base hits, let alone 30 doubles. I'll say batting average is about good, though. Ichiro's walks are to high, I believe, although I think Matsui's are about right.

I think you will find my analysis of at least the hitters to be on the mark. Also, with respect to cases like Tuffy Rhodes, please see this post of mine: http://baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=361354&postcount=35
Jim Albright

I didn't see Tuffy mentioned ONCE in that post. But seriously, what does it say when I guy can match a MAJOR RECORD in one league and CAN'T MAKE IT in another? I take those Tuffy stats on one page I saw were "translated". 40HR?! That's supposed to be what your basing your data on. You also claim (rightfully so) that the Japaneese Leagues were the highest achievable. My retort would be, how many players have been making a major impact, let alone anything anywhere near formulating a Hall of Fame arguement in the decade since? Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui are the only hitters I can possibly come up with, and Ichiro's HIGHLY overrated to me because of his style, while Matsui has been only a complimentary, Mark Grace type, hitter for the Yankees, far and away from the Giambi prime type we were expecting.
As for Oh's translated stats, I'm not sure what era they were translated to, but I really don't see much difference between they and Fred McGriff's. The comparisons to what I take to be Matsui's and Tuffy's translated stats also make we VERY skeptical for any power arguements. I also have a VERY hard time believing he would have ANYWHERE NEAR 2000BB in the majors since I believe a HUGE number of those would be "respect/fear" walks that he would be granted in a line-up where he wasn't (necessarily) the #1hitter (BY FAR) facing much better pitching used to great hitters and with the MUCH lower numbers.
Again, if I'm misreading the data, let me know so I can havbe a more accurate opinion.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I don't think Willie Keeler is a HOFer, either. Yes, he's the best pure hitter in the game. I don't care. He still gets out A LOT for someone with that I of an average, or about normal overall for good player, but he has absolutely no power whatsoever or contributes real scoring to his team. He is in no way, shape, or form a team changing player. He also relies on his speed, which means when it goes, he'll drop to a line .290/.330/.350 (not that much of a decline, I might add) and people will realize his low value. Also, look at his RF competition. Vlad, Ordonez, and Sheffield, IMO all are better all-time players at this point.
The question is what the voters will think. The voters tend to look at accomplishments. The voters, for better or for worse, like 200 hit seasons, high BAs, and Gold Gloves. So far Ichiro:

2001 MVP
2001 RoY
5 Gold Gloves
2 Batting Titles
262 hit season (all-time record)
5 200-hit seasons
5 100-run seasons
20 Black Ink Score (27 avg HoF)
128.5 HoF Monitor

So far, by historical standards, Ichiro is absolutely have a HoF career. Now the key is how will he age. Given that he is a hard worker, a perfectionist, and exercises a lot, I think he will age well. Plus, Ichiro is just plain fun to watch. Would you at least agree Ichiro is fun to watch?

[jalbright]

If those were projections, they were awfully high in the power departments. Why was Matsui only given 126G his last two seasons? But still 30+HR for a guy who's constantly around 15? Ichiro's extra base numbers are EXTREMELY high. There's seasons he can't manage 30 combined extra base hits, let alone 30 doubles. I'll say batting average is about good, though. Ichiro's walks are to high, I believe, although I think Matsui's are about right.

I didn't see Tuffy mentioned ONCE in that post. But seriously, what does it say when I guy can match a MAJOR RECORD in one league and CAN'T MAKE IT in another? I take those Tuffy stats on one page I saw were "translated". 40HR?! That's supposed to be what your basing your data on. You also claim (rightfully so) that the Japaneese Leagues were the highest achievable. My retort would be, how many players have been making a major impact, let alone anything anywhere near formulating a Hall of Fame arguement in the decade since? Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui are the only hitters I can possibly come up with, and Ichiro's HIGHLY overrated to me because of his style, while Matsui has been only a complimentary, Mark Grace type, hitter for the Yankees, far and away from the Giambi prime type we were expecting.
As for Oh's translated stats, I'm not sure what era they were translated to, but I really don't see much difference between they and Fred McGriff's. The comparisons to what I take to be Matsui's and Tuffy's translated stats also make we VERY skeptical for any power arguements. I also have a VERY hard time believing he would have ANYWHERE NEAR 2000BB in the majors since I believe a HUGE number of those would be "respect/fear" walks that he would be granted in a line-up where he wasn't (necessarily) the #1hitter (BY FAR) facing much better pitching used to great hitters and with the MUCH lower numbers.
Again, if I'm misreading the data, let me know so I can havbe a more accurate opinion.


1) The projections are not park adjusted.

2) The projections are meant to reflect as well as possible what the player actually did. Therefore, one must look at the projections and later results from the perspective of whether or not we would think it reasonable for a player to do this in one league for one team and go to another team in another league and do what he did there. By that standard, I think the results of the projections, while hardly perfect, are more than reasonable.

3) If the post doesn't mention Tuffy, it deals with the type of player he was--a young kid who struggled in limited opportunities and eventually went to Japan and showed his talent. Tuffy also bulked up considerably in his time in Japan. I don't think that what I project for what he did in Japan is out of line under the circumstances, unless you think major league clubs' talent evaluations are infallible.

4) I did not base Rhodes' projection on the projected stats. If you want a full blown description of how the methods were arrived at, please see here: http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright08.html

5) Oh's stats go to his own time based upon comparisons to players who a) played in the majors and b) played in his Central League when Oh did, 1960-80. Really, he's Willie McCovey with a lot more walks, though more consistent but with lower peaks. Willie is an almost exact contemporary.

6) Actually, though I constantly catch flak over Oh's walks, they are far more conservative than the comparative player data would dictate. The comparative data would increase them by 14% or so per AB, and then when we adjust for schedule, the numbers say they should be 40% higher than the number I used (his actuals). There is a reason for this: Japanese pitchers pitched exceptional numbers of innings, threw hard every day per the Japanese thinking, and aces were used in starter/ace relief roles. Under those circumstances, a pitcher has a strong motivation not to nibble.
Also, if it's just Japanese pitchers being overly deferential to Oh, please explain how he drew so many walks against what was an above average set of major leaguers in exhibition games.


7) Japanese players are restricted from coming over until they've played nine years for the top club unless the teams post them, which the teams rarely choose to do. Since Japan only has 12 teams, take either league at the end of a season and look at their list of free agents--but only one of the two leagues. Then eliminate everyone who hasn't spent nine years or more in the majors. Your list of available free agents suddenly is far less attractive, isn't it? Add to that the way the Japanese (ab)use pitchers, and you would see results not all that different from what Japan has provided in the past few years.

8) Hideki Matsui never projects to 126 games, but to 162. You may be thinking about Ichiro, who did have seasons down around 100 games out of around 135 in his last two years in Japan. Bump 100+/135 to 162 game seasons, and you'll get numbers like I came up with.

9) Hideki Matsui's low was 16 HR, and his other two seasons are 31 and 23.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Cant wait to see the results of the Japanese Veterans Committee meetings and selections... Hope there is no Flankie Flisch on that panel... But even if there was, how many casual American baseball fans would even know or care if mistakes were made? It's appears to be an almost universal belief here that we are already have at least 30 less than fully qualified MLB HOF-ers. It also seems to me, after a review of all 50 pages of HOF discussion that there is considerable disagreement as to how and who to evaluate as being worthy from America's Negro Leagues. Now we are to add the Japanese Leagues? One other purpose that the *National* Baseball HOF serves is as a tourist attraction. To put this bluntly, who in the USA is going to care or get excited about the selection of Japanese players who played the whole careers over there? People whose names, teams, careers are unknown to all but the very hardest of the hard core baseball fans. Who will even care to go and see them inducted or view their plaques? Many BBF posters and fans might. (Some?) But I think most typical fans will wonder WTH are they (the BB HOF) doing to screw things up THIS time? I just dont see this as anything that adds to our HOF or it's mission. Now, players like Hideo Nomo or Ichiro, if they one day qualify based on their MLB performances, thats a whole different matter. My 2 cents worth... OH btw, as an aside on a different topic I was reading about earlier tonight. Bill James in the HOF as a pioneer? No. Bill James as a Spink Award Winner for exceptional baseball writing? Most definitely. Again, one man's opinion.
I have emphasized the need to try to get it right. But if the Hall is as bad as you seem to imply at making selections outside of the ill-considered Veteran's Committee, what's the use of it at all? Why does it deserve any respect? I don't think it is that bad, Frankie Frisch aside. We agree that group of picks is awful.

You also correctly acknowledge that a purpose of the Hall is to draw tourists. Japanese folks have lots of disposable income and are known as frequent tourists. Don't you think some Japanese players in Cooperstown might just draw some of them to Cooperstown? If you drew merely 1000 such people a year through inducting international players, I believe it would be a net benefit to the Hall, and would be more beneficial if you drew more than that. Beyond that, I beleive baseball would benefit in being able to sell itself overseas because it would be demonstrating in a very tangible way it respects baseball elsewhere.

Jim Albright

[Chisox]

The question is what the voters will think. The voters tend to look at accomplishments. The voters, for better or for worse, like 200 hit seasons, high BAs, and Gold Gloves. So far Ichiro:

2001 MVP
2001 RoY
5 Gold Gloves
2 Batting Titles
262 hit season (all-time record)
5 200-hit seasons
5 100-run seasons
20 Black Ink Score (27 avg HoF)
128.5 HoF Monitor

So far, by historical standards, Ichiro is absolutely have a HoF career. Now the key is how will he age. Given that he is a hard worker, a perfectionist, and exercises a lot, I think he will age well. Plus, Ichiro is just plain fun to watch. Would you at least agree Ichiro is fun to watch?
I never said, or at least meant it to be perceived I thought, that Ichiro wasn't on his way to MAKING the HOF, just that I didn't think he was WORTHY. As to that 262 hit season, isn't funny that his team lost (I believe) 98 games, a good chunk because they couldn't score? This arguement is much more based on what makes a great player (value) than whether or not I THINK he'll MAKE it. I think he'll make it, I just wouldn't vote for him.
Yes, I think he's very exciting. So was Bo Jackson, Deion Sanders, and MANY others I would never think of inducting, though Ichiro is much better then those two.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I never said, or at least meant it to be perceived I thought, that Ichiro wasn't on his way to MAKING the HOF, just that I didn't think he was WORTHY. As to that 262 hit season, isn't funny that his team lost (I believe) 98 games, a good chunk because they couldn't score? This arguement is much more based on what makes a great player (value) than whether or not I THINK he'll MAKE it. I think he'll make it, I just wouldn't vote for him.
Yes, I think he's very exciting. So was Bo Jackson, Deion Sanders, and MANY others I would never think of inducting, though Ichiro is much better then those two.
Ok, I see your point. :)

[Chisox]

3) If the post doesn't mention Tuffy, it deals with the type of player he was--a young kid who struggled in limited opportunities and eventually went to Japan and showed his talent. Tuffy also bulked up considerably in his time in Japan. I don't think that what I project for what he did in Japan is out of line under the circumstances, unless you think major league clubs' talent evaluations are infallible.
He still managed only four home runs in 590AB during his time in the majors. It's a LONG road from 4/590 to the Japaneese equivalent of Roger Maris.

4) I did not base Rhodes' projection on the projected stats. If you want a full blown description of how the methods were arrived at, please see here: http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright08.html
I'm more confused than ever. Didn't you use the same way for Tuffy or Oh as you did for others?

5) Oh's stats go to his own time based upon comparisons to players who a) played in the majors and b) played in his Central League when Oh did, 1960-80. Really, he's Willie McCovey with a lot more walks, though more consistent but with lower peaks. Willie is an almost exact contemporary.
Gotcha. Although why did you just say they were NOT park adjusted when the rating says you HAVE TO ADJUST? I've got McGriff (#12)and McCovey (#13, i think) about even, mostly because I don't punish McGriff for playing past his prime in the offensive explosion. Very well open for debate, but not here.

6) Actually, though I constantly catch flak over Oh's walks, they are far more conservative than the comparative player data would dictate. The comparative data would increase them by 14% or so per AB, and then when we adjust for schedule, the numbers say they should be 40% higher than the number I used (his actuals). There is a reason for this: Japanese pitchers pitched exceptional numbers of innings, threw hard every day per the Japanese thinking, and aces were used in starter/ace relief roles. Under those circumstances, a pitcher has a strong motivation not to nibble.
Also, if it's just Japanese pitchers being overly deferential to Oh, please explain how he drew so many walks against what was an above average set of major leaguers in exhibition games.
I understand you're UNDER-ADJUSTING his walks. Do you really think a top hitter here would walk more or less in Japan? Do you really think a top Japanese hitter would walk more or less here? Don't you generally walk less the higher competion you face and better protection you have in your line-up? Just what I'm thinking. Do you think pitchers in the majors would be more or less afraid of facing him than those in Japan, and therefore give him less or more to hit?
Why would he receive a fair amount of walks against ML competition? Who was in his line-up--did they have the same reputation as game changers? Small sample size. When was the competition--spring training--pitcher's rusty? Were the top pitchers those who walked a fair share? Who were those who weren't the top pitchers pitching to him? What situations were they? WHO was issuing the walks? I assume this isn't a full seasons worth we're talking about here so any of those could apply. I just don't know.
7) Japanese players are restricted from coming over until they've played nine years for the top club unless the teams post them, which the teams rarely choose to do. Since Japan only has 12 teams, take either league at the end of a season and look at their list of free agents--but only one of the two leagues. Then eliminate everyone who hasn't spent nine years or more in the majors. Your list of available free agents suddenly is far less attractive, isn't it? Add to that the way the Japanese (ab)use pitchers, and you would see results not all that different from what Japan has provided in the past few years.
I thought that was revoked? I must have misread previous posts talking about a change in policy a decade ago.

8) Hideki Matsui never projects to 126 games, but to 162. You may be thinking about Ichiro, who did have seasons down around 100 games out of around 135 in his last two years in Japan. Bump 100+/135 to 162 game seasons, and you'll get numbers like I came up with.

9) Hideki Matsui's low was 16 HR, and his other two seasons are 31 and 23.

Jim Albright
You're right on both counts. I was thinking of Ichiro.
Also, just goes to show that one should check before one opens one's big mouth. I was POSITIVE he'd gotten 13 or around there the last two seasons.:o DEFINITELY my error and I apologize. 31 seems like a pretty good projection. 13 and 23 seem to be significantly under. Why is a good question, in my book. The first because of a new environment and the second one age?

I am, however, very interested how Tuffy Rhodes' stats are calculated differently than your others, though. I thought they were all calculated using the same criteria (even if the multipliers may change a little due to era/ballpark.)

BTW, VERY good site. I am VERY skeptical of projecting Japanese, or any other league, stats onto big league stats, simply becuase similar formulas are derived from the minors, and they are erratic at best. Far too many variables involved for me to have any confidence in the outcomes. I do, however, think it is a worthwhile task and quite fun to look into. I just can't get to worked up over it's accuracy.

[Chisox]

Ok, I see your point. :)
O.K. You're fast.:)

[jalbright]

I'm more confused than ever. Didn't you use the same way for Tuffy or Oh as you did for others?

Gotcha. Although why did you just say they were NOT park adjusted

I understand you're UNDER-ADJUSTING his walks. Do you really think a top hitter here would walk more or less in Japan? Do you really think a top Japanese hitter would walk more or less here? Don't you generally walk less the higher competion you face and better protection you have in your line-up? Just what I'm thinking. Do you think pitchers in the majors would be more or less afraid of facing him than those in Japan, and therefore give him less or more to hit?
Why would he receive a fair amount of walks against ML competition? Who was in his line-up--did they have the same reputation as game changers? Small sample size. When was the competition--spring training--pitcher's rusty? Were the top pitchers those who walked a fair share? Who were those who weren't the top pitchers pitching to him? What situations were they? WHO was issuing the walks? I assume this isn't a full seasons worth we're talking about here so any of those could apply. I just don't know.

I thought that was revoked? I must have misread previous posts talking about a change in policy a decade ago.

I am, however, very interested how Tuffy Rhodes' stats are calculated differently than your others, though. I thought they were all calculated using the same criteria (even if the multipliers may change a little due to era/ballpark.)

BTW, VERY good site. I am VERY skeptical of projecting Japanese, or any other league, stats onto big league stats, simply becuase similar formulas are derived from the minors, and they are erratic at best. Far too many variables involved for me to have any confidence in the outcomes. I do, however, think it is a worthwhile task and quite fun to look into. I just can't get to worked up over it's accuracy.

First, thank you for the kind words. Oh's projection is based on 23,000+ (IIRC the thousands digit) matched AB per the formula. Modern players' numbers are based on data from 1992-2001 (40,000+ matched AB), so the adjustments are slightly different. However, I don't know what you're talking about with Rhodes and 40 HR unless you can point me to it. It may be you're picking up an actual number somewhere or a typo, because I don't think I've ever projected any Japanese season to be equal to 40 HR.

I haven't done ballpark adjustments for two reasons: one, and most important, I simply don't have the data I need (at least such that I can read it given my almost nonexistent command of Japanese) for more than about 3-4 years of Japanese baseball history. Second, when a guy might come to the majors, I usually have no idea where he'll wind up when I write the articles because I don't wait until all the signings are done--I usually try to beat the signings.

There's been talk of differing free agency periods, but right now, it's still nine years. The way the Japanese owners are, I'll believe it when I see it.

As for the opponents for Oh, the walks often did come in the spring, and the main list I have for who he faced is who he took out of the yard, which is detailed in the first part of the analysis of Oh's record. Another thing you might note is that many major leaguers comment on his command of the strike zone, even though the quotes from these guys date from the era when on-base percentage was a geek-only (if that) stat.

My analysis of Oh, though, isn't solely based on the projections. Look at what major league observers said at the end of the first article. I've challenged people to come up with anything more negative than he wouldn't have hit as many career HR as Mays, Aaron and Ruth with nary a response. Since neither Oh nor I think he would have done that well, so what? Besides, if you want to say a guy isn't HOF caliber, would you start by comparing him to those three? It's more a backhanded way of saying he was darned good, just not the greatest ever. Also, Oh dominated in Japan to a remarkable degree, and performed well against major leaguers when he got the chance. It's the whole pile of evidence which all points in the same direction which is so persuasive, not any one aspect of it.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Chisox,

On H. Matsui's homers, the projections with the exception of his last Japanese season range from 25 to 30. With that in mind, I think the 23 and 31 are very definitely the kind of results we should expect. The sixteen in the first year seems mostly due to getting himself acclimated. He had an awful start in the majors, which he never overcame in terms of the season. He seems to be one of those guys who needs to know the pitchers to excel, and if that surmise is correct, going from Japan to the majors would definitely be a recipe for initial difficulties. Doing it in a Yankee uniform can't have made it any easier with the media circus that follows them.

Jim Albright

[Calif_Eagle]

I have emphasized the need to try to get it right. But if the Hall is as bad as you seem to imply at making selections outside of the ill-considered Veteran's Committee, what's the use of it at all? Why does it deserve any respect? I don't think it is that bad, Frankie Frisch aside. We agree that group of picks is awful.

You also correctly acknowledge that a purpose of the Hall is to draw tourists. Japanese folks have lots of disposable income and are known as frequent tourists. Don't you think some Japanese players in Cooperstown might just draw some of them to Cooperstown? If you drew merely 1000 such people a year through inducting international players, I believe it would be a net benefit to the Hall, and would be more beneficial if you drew more than that. Beyond that, I beleive baseball would benefit in being able to sell itself overseas because it would be demonstrating in a very tangible way it respects baseball elsewhere. There is no reason why our own National HOF couldnt be the driving force behind starting such a new HOF to serve the Global Baseball community.

Jim Albright
My reply to the above is centered around a thought Bill James voiced in the brand new biography that just hit the stands. He feels the HOF is broken beyond repair and that there are too many non-elite players in it now to ever make a fix to it. (I am paraphrasing here. This is NOT an exact quote.) I feel there are many players in our own MLB you can make a good case for precisely because comparable non elite players are in and they arent ever going to be going out. Why should a player like Oliva stay out of the HOF, when players like Hafey Dean Koufax Youngs Joss just off the top of my head all had shortened careers due to injury or death? Knee injuries surely impacted Oliva also. My point is that why would we honor the "very good" in our Hall, (as we DO or have DONE) and only the very Elite of Japanese baseball? I think Sadaharu Oh would make a legit addition to our hall because he is a figure of (baseball world) world wide importance. But you will quickly lose the American fan when you introduce the Japanese player that falls short of his status. You are a researcher & many BBF members also demonstrate knowledge & appreciation for the game far beyond that of "Joe Sixpack". But most American fans, even hard core baseball fans just dont have that level of appreciation for the Japanese game. I think your points re: Japanese tourism to Cooperstown may have some merit, Cooperstown is a small town with limited tourism facilities. A few Japanese visitors would surely go a long way. I think your true Japanese fan will feel that their own HOF would be a more appropriate and enjoyable visit. I think the answer is to start a new HOF open to the whole baseball world and let our National HOF proceed as it always has, with the exception of the Vets Committee. That needs to be reworked. Hopefully, in a new Global HOF we could restrict our MLB section to our own Elite and keep the "McCarthy" type examples out.

[Chisox]

First, thank you for the kind words. Oh's projection is based on 23,000+ (IIRC the thousands digit) matched AB per the formula. Modern players' numbers are based on data from 1992-2001 (40,000+ matched AB), so the adjustments are slightly different. However, I don't know what you're talking about with Rhodes and 40 HR unless you can point me to it. It may be you're picking up an actual number somewhere or a typo, because I don't think I've ever projected any Japanese season to be equal to 40 HR.
http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright35.html Scroll down to Tuffy Rhodes, unless I'm completely mis-reading it.

YEAR G AB H 2B 3B HR BB AVG OB PCT SLG
2001 162 636 194 22 0 38 77 .305 .380 .529
2002 160 618 156 35 4 32 66 .253 .325 .478
2003 160 588 151 18 0 36 91 .257 .357 .470
2004 157 614 164 20 0 32 68 .267 .340 .455
2005 112 421 94 10 0 18 49 .224 .305 .376

38 was the high.


I haven't done ballpark adjustments for two reasons: one, and most important, I simply don't have the data I need (at least such that I can read it given my almost nonexistent command of Japanese) for more than about 3-4 years of Japanese baseball history. Second, when a guy might come to the majors, I usually have no idea where he'll wind up when I write the articles because I don't wait until all the signings are done--I usually try to beat the signings.

There's been talk of differing free agency periods, but right now, it's still nine years. The way the Japanese owners are, I'll believe it when I see it.
O.K. That changes things.

As for the opponents for Oh, the walks often did come in the spring, and the main list I have for who he faced is who he took out of the yard, which is detailed in the first part of the analysis of Oh's record. Another thing you might note is that many major leaguers comment on his command of the strike zone, even though the quotes from these guys date from the era when on-base percentage was a geek-only (if that) stat.
I have no doubt he would have walked a lot, I'm just questioning Barry Bonds/Ted Williams territory. I happen to think that walks are based a lot (at least for middle of the order guys) on how feared they are. The best hitters in lower leagues aren't going to walk as much as the best hitters in the best league, IMO.
My analysis of Oh, though, isn't solely based on the projections. Look at what major league observers said at the end of the first article. I've challenged people to come up with anything more negative than he wouldn't have hit as many career HR as Mays, Aaron and Ruth with nary a response. Since neither Oh nor I think he would have done that well, so what? Besides, if you want to say a guy isn't HOF caliber, would you start by comparing him to those three? It's more a backhanded way of saying he was darned good, just not the greatest ever. Also, Oh dominated in Japan to a remarkable degree, and performed well against major leaguers when he got the chance. It's the whole pile of evidence which all points in the same direction which is so persuasive, not any one aspect of it.

Jim Albright
I think Oh would have done well, I'm just not convinced he would have been a HOFer in the majors during his play. Again, I am REALLY skeptical when comparing "minors" to majors. There were also quotes that had him as a border-liner HOFer.

Tom Seaver: He sure hit me. He was a superb hitter. He hit consistently, and he hit with power. If he played in the United States, he would have hit 20-25 home runs a year, and what’s more, he’d hit .300. He’d be a lifetime .300 hitter. He had tremendous discipline at the plate. He knew the strike zone extremely well . . . .He could pull your hard stuff, and you couldn’t fool him off-speed.
I really don't know if that's a HOFer, even for that period.

Brooks Robinson
Brooks Robinson: He could have played right here in the big leagues with the best players in the world. He would have hit here. Not as many home runs, but he would have hit his share and hit for average. He was just an outstanding hitter.
Not necessarily a HOFer. Sounds like a lot of guys not in.

Don Drysdale
Don Drysdale: He would have hit for average and power here. In a park tailored to his swing, there’s no telling how many he would have hit. . . . He was always ready for anything we threw him. We were all impressed.
Again, not necessarily a HOFer. I have no doubt he would have done well, but the HOF is another.

[Chisox]

Chisox,

On H. Matsui's homers, the projections with the exception of his last Japanese season range from 25 to 30. With that in mind, I think the 23 and 31 are very definitely the kind of results we should expect. The sixteen in the first year seems mostly due to getting himself acclimated. He had an awful start in the majors, which he never overcame in terms of the season. He seems to be one of those guys who needs to know the pitchers to excel, and if that surmise is correct, going from Japan to the majors would definitely be a recipe for initial difficulties. Doing it in a Yankee uniform can't have made it any easier with the media circus that follows them.

Jim Albright
Right again. Somehow, I saw that 35 for 2003 and thought it was normal.:o

[jalbright]

My reply to the above is centered around a thought Bill James voiced in the brand new biography that just hit the stands. He feels the HOF is broken beyond repair and that there are too many non-elite players in it now to ever make a fix to it. (I am paraphrasing here. This is NOT an exact quote.) I feel there are many players in our own MLB you can make a good case for precisely because comparable non elite players are in and they arent ever going to be going out. Why should a player like Oliva stay out of the HOF, when players like Hafey Dean Koufax Youngs Joss just off the top of my head all had shortened careers due to injury or death? Knee injuries surely impacted Oliva also. My point is that why would we honor the "very good" in our Hall, (as we DO or have DONE) and only the very Elite of Japanese baseball? I think Sadaharu Oh would make a legit addition to our hall because he is a figure of (baseball world) world wide importance. But you will quickly lose the American fan when you introduce the Japanese player that falls short of his status. You are a researcher & many BBF members also demonstrate knowledge & appreciation for the game far beyond that of "Joe Sixpack". But most American fans, even hard core baseball fans just dont have that level of appreciation for the Japanese game. I think your points re: Japanese tourism to Cooperstown may have some merit, Cooperstown is a small town with limited tourism facilities. A few Japanese visitors would surely go a long way. I think your true Japanese fan will feel that their own HOF would be a more appropriate and enjoyable visit. I think the answer is to start a new HOF open to the whole baseball world and let our National HOF proceed as it always has, with the exception of the Vets Committee. That needs to be reworked. Hopefully, in a new Global HOF we could restrict our MLB section to our own Elite and keep the "McCarthy" type examples out.
It may be that there are only ten to 15 Japanese players who would make the cut--that's a rather elite group in my opinion.

As for the idea of a global HOF that starts over, my main problem is that I don't see how it could succeed as a competitor to Cooperstown, even if we eliminate the worst choices. I think it was in this thread I expressed my concerns on the financial level. Beyond that, though, if it actually gained traction, it would always have a tremendous Achilles' heel in that Cooperstown could always steal much of its thunder by choosing to induct foreign players too. That being the case, I'd rather go for the path I've advocated despite Cooperstown's obvious warts.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Chisox,

What is the difficulty with seeing Rhodes' 55 HR year in 2001 as a 38 homer year in the majors using these numbers. I don't see the inconsistency you seem to. Take that 55 and increase the schedule to 162 games, then reduce it by the adjustment figures, and 38 sounds about right to me.

If it's about Rhodes' development, I will remind you about his bulking up in Japan, plus the passage of time. I don't think his major league equivalents are out of line given that scenario.

Jim Albright

[Chisox]

Chisox,

What is the difficulty with seeing Rhodes' 55 HR year in 2001 as a 38 homer year in the majors using these numbers. I don't see the inconsistency you seem to. Take that 55 and increase the schedule to 162 games, then reduce it by the adjustment figures, and 38 sounds about right to me.

If it's about Rhodes' development, I will remind you about his bulking up in Japan, plus the passage of time. I don't think his major league equivalents are out of line given that scenario.

Jim Albright
Because he hit a grand total of 13HR in 590AB in 225G in 6 seasons for 3 teams, with a career high of 8 in '94, five more than any other season in his real major league career. That's like Ichiro's HR#s. Doesn't add up in my book.

[jalbright]

I will point out the following:

1) He never had more than 269 AB in any one major league season, and his second best is 136. That's not calculated to help anyone develop their stroke.

2) It isn't like Tuffy went to Japan and immediately hit 55--that took five years after his last major league appearance.

3) baseball-reference lists him at 170 pounds--but in Japan, he's listed at 87 kg or about 191 pounds per japanesebaseball.com. That's the bulking up I referred to. He definitely started to work with weights sometime during his Japanese stay. He definitely increased his strength. He proved in the majors in a part time role he could have hit in the teens in homers if he played full time. I think his increases in homers beyond that come from improving his hitting via playing full time and the steps he took to add 20 pounds of muscle.

4) In his first three years in Japan, his actual numbers are 27, 22 and 22, none of which would translate to a major league record of over 20 home runs playing full time. It isn't like he went to Japan and starting hitting taters at anything like a record rate.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Let me be a little more explicit--couldn't Rhodes' jump in homers have nothing to do with the difference between the leagues and everything to do with the difference in his body? I hope he did it without going the Barry Bonds route and other than the body mass change, I have no evidence, but can we rule it out entirely? Haven't we seen quite a few guys since 1990 add 20 pounds of muscle and have their home run numbers jump significantly in the majors? We know not all of them did it without going to the pharmacy, don't we? Japan may be an island nation, but it's not so isolated that those things can't reach there too.

Jim Albright

[SamtheBravesFan]

There would be a loooooooooot of Japanese players to include, wouldn't there? o.O

[Calif_Eagle]

I think in terms of being a financial winner for the present staff of men (women too ?) who currently run the HOF, that adding inductions of Japanese players and significant attractions, memorabilia, displays etc for a truly inclusive experience for the Japanese leagues is going to be a non-starter. I dont feel, as of today anyway, that MLB has close enough business ties with Japan to make this a happening thing. There is no expansion to Japan planned by MLB, and that probably wouldnt be welcomed if there were. Equally the Japanese leagues arent planning any US expansion that I know of. I thought I read somewhere, LA Times article within the last year or so; that there was actually talk of merging the Central and Pacific Leagues and actually performing a contraction ala' the 1899 National League or our more recent plan suggested by Bud Selig, (A "Cee"-League Section? lol) on the 2 leagues, eliminating some weak sisters. I just dont think it adds anything from a business sense for the Hall. Maybe one day, if we grow closer to Japan and actually start mingling our team and league structures. But not today.

[jalbright]

There would be a loooooooooot of Japanese players to include, wouldn't there? o.O

Somewhere between 10 and 25, I'd say, and probably less than 20, actually.

Jim Albright

[leecemark]

--Probably the best solution would be to add an international wing to the Hall with a separate committe to choose who belongs. Although this may not satisfy some (Hi Jim:) ), it is likely the only way this gets addressed in the forseeable future.

[jalbright]

Mark

The question I have is the details of your proposal. I think a separate committee is essential, and merely putting the players in a different room doesn't bother me. But if the award is more like the Ford Frick award (a name on a display and not induction), you're right, I'm opposed.

Jim Albright

[leecemark]

--I haven't really thought out the details, since its not something I'm likely to have the chance to implement. I'd personally lean toward giving them plaques and listing them on the HoF rolls though. Their status should be more or less the same as Negro leaguers if they were inducted.

[jalbright]

--I haven't really thought out the details, since its not something I'm likely to have the chance to implement. I'd personally lean toward giving them plaques and listing them on the HoF rolls though. Their status should be more or less the same as Negro leaguers if they were inducted.
If I could get that, I'd be thrilled. That's all I ask. However, even that proposal probably has no chance until after Ichiro is inducted. I think it will be a big deal in Japan when that happens, and I hope the level of interest piques the Hall's interest. If events prove me right, I think the idea that doing what I advocate is in the Hall's interest regardless of other issues has a real chance of taking hold. If that idea takes root, then it's got a real chance of happening. Until then, all anyone can possibly do is try to improve the chances of the idea taking root when the time is right.

Jim Albright

[Chisox]

Let me be a little more explicit--couldn't Rhodes' jump in homers have nothing to do with the difference between the leagues and everything to do with the difference in his body? I hope he did it without going the Barry Bonds route and other than the body mass change, I have no evidence, but can we rule it out entirely? Haven't we seen quite a few guys since 1990 add 20 pounds of muscle and have their home run numbers jump significantly in the majors? We know not all of them did it without going to the pharmacy, don't we? Japan may be an island nation, but it's not so isolated that those things can't reach there too.

Jim Albright
Yes, but what's more likely? If a player can't make it in one league, and then becomes anothers version of Roger Maris, tying possibly the most important record in that league, what's the more likely reason: personal adjustments or or league quality?
Let's put it this way, if someone came up with a career similar to Karl's in the bigs and then got sent down to the minors where he bulked up and eventually had himself a great career, what would the explanation be.

[Chisox]

--I haven't really thought out the details, since its not something I'm likely to have the chance to implement. I'd personally lean toward giving them plaques and listing them on the HoF rolls though. Their status should be more or less the same as Negro leaguers if they were inducted.
That's exactly my thinking.

[jalbright]

Yes, but what's more likely? If a player can't make it in one league, and then becomes anothers version of Roger Maris, tying possibly the most important record in that league, what's the more likely reason: personal adjustments or or league quality?
Let's put it this way, if someone came up with a career similar to Karl's in the bigs and then got sent down to the minors where he bulked up and eventually had himself a great career, what would the explanation be.

Then please explain why his first three years in Japan were 27, 22, and 22 home runs. If we use my numbers to account for the difference, in the major leagues, that kind of performance would be in the teens.

Jim Albright

[Chisox]

Then please explain why his first three years in Japan were 27, 22, and 22 home runs. If we use my numbers to account for the difference, in the major leagues, that kind of performance would be in the teens.

Jim Albright
Which is pretty similar to Roger Maris'.
It might have some validity considering he hit 13HR in 590AB in the bigs, but I don't know considering 8 of those were in one season and 11 of those were with Wrigley as his home park.
Where do I get his real stats without downloading the DB?
Yes, he never got any real playing time in the bigs, but that was because he didn't play well in the first place. I have a lot of trouble comparing two leagues when someone who couldn't play in one deserves, by your own admission in your rankings, HOF consideration in the other. I would like you to answer my question in my previous post (that.)

[jpenrod]

However, when the issue came about in the 1960s many still were not moved by this argument, Ford Frick being one. He argued that regardless of the unfairness of the black players not beign allowed to play major league baseball, they shouldn't be allowed in because they were simply not eligible by the HoF rules. Man, those silly rules...

First of all let me admit that I have not read through the entirity of the post so this point may have already been made.

That being said, pick up a history book and look at what was going on in the U.S. in the 1960's and see if you can answer your own question about why the negro leagues were excluded from the HOF in the 1960's. Just because MLB had admitted Negro Leaguers on their teams in the 1960's does not mean the players had unanamous support throught MLB. If you think the black players in the 1960's did not face racism just because they had finally been admitted to play MLB you are blind. Want to see how integrated MLB was in the 1960's? How many black players were in the A.L.? how many black players made the All-star team in the A.L. versus the N.L.? do not be fooled into thinking that America was ready to admit they were wrong about segregation in the 1960's just because they had started to admit the best of the best black players on the same field as white Major Leaguers.

IMO to suggest that the Japanese League is in anyway comparable to the Negro Leaguers and their case is as foolish as you believe the "national" argument is.

[jalbright]

Which is pretty similar to Roger Maris'.
It might have some validity considering he hit 13HR in 590AB in the bigs, but I don't know considering 8 of those were in one season and 11 of those were with Wrigley as his home park.
Where do I get his real stats without downloading the DB?
Yes, he never got any real playing time in the bigs, but that was because he didn't play well in the first place. I have a lot of trouble comparing two leagues when someone who couldn't play in one deserves, by your own admission in your rankings, HOF consideration in the other. I would like you to answer my question in my previous post (that.)

Frankly, Rhodes did not look like even a Japanese HOFer until 2001 and the 55 HR. 1999 was nice, but that was the only season which was really special before that. It's that stretch of 55, 46, 51 and 45 HR with nice walk totals from 2001-2004 that put him in the range of Japanese HOFers. My definition of Japanese HOFers is derived from taking the 70 or so players inducted, and, after ranking all the significant players, eliminating those not yet eligible for consideration. When you get in the range of the top 70 eligibles, that's the area to draw the line. Rhodes adds some bulk to his resume in 4 of his first five years, but little more. I'd add that while I believe Rhodes has had such a career in Japan, it's not like I think he Kicks the doors open on his way in--more like sneaks in because of high peak performance. The bulking up after several years in Japan is the key to that assessment.

The bottom line is, yes, he looked better in Japan than he would have looked in the majors, because the majors are better. Even his first three years in Japan would be pretty marginal for a major league outfielder with his defensive skills if translated to the majors (cut the HR down by 30%, the avg down by 7%, and drop the rate of walks by almost 20%). He did something which improved his performance to lead to those four big years--but my point is, he could have done the same thing in the majors to perform far better than he had.

BTW--do you think Barry Bonds went to 73 homers in 2001 because of his move to the Giants from the Pirates? Or, because that happened years earlier, was it another cause, like those mutation-like changes in his body? C'mon, the statute of limitations on things like changing teams or leagues has to run out some time.

Rhodes stats can be found here: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=905

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

First of all let me admit that I have not read through the entirity of the post so this point may have already been made.

......

IMO to suggest that the Japanese League is in anyway comparable to the Negro Leaguers and their case is as foolish as you believe the "national" argument is.

What you have missed is that while the Japanese weren't excluded by racism, they were excluded by virtue of a business decision of the major leagues. The other part of the issue is that there is an element which likes to respond to the idea of international players in the HOF as violating the rules set forth in 1939 like those rules are some kind of holy writ. Those rules have been changed to address issues such as the Negro Leaguers, and can readily be changed again if the Hall deems it to be in its interest. If you think that continuing the choice to exclude international players is in the Hall's best interest, that's fine--but recognize it is a conscious choice, nothing more.

Jim Albright

[jpenrod]

What you have missed is that while the Japanese weren't excluded by racism, they were excluded by virtue of a business decision of the major leagues. The other part of the issue is that there is an element which likes to respond to the idea of international players in the HOF as violating the rules set forth in 1939 like those rules are some kind of holy writ. Those rules have been changed to address issues such as the Negro Leaguers, and can readily be changed again if the Hall deems it to be in its interest. If you think that continuing the choice to exclude international players is in the Hall's best interest, that's fine--but recognize it is a conscious choice, nothing more.

Jim Albright

Actually I did not miss that at all, my response was more directly to the point that the HOF did not admit Negro Leaguers in the 1960's. Since you bring up the other issues let me state my opinion, MLB is a business and I believe that they have a right to run their business how they see fit, if you do not like the way they run it do not watch it. This is an extreme view, and I do not say you have to accept everything they do, but I do not believe we as fans have a right to say they must do this or they must do that. Also The HOF is not an institution run by MLB or the fans, and also like any other institution they have a right to set their policies as they see fit. If you have a strong dislike for their policy you do not have to support them, eventually if enough people stop supporting them then they may change their policy.

I believe there is a Baseball Hall of Fame in Japan that honors the players from the Japanese league. Despite the business decision to disallow Japanese players I still see their situation quite differently than the Negro Leaguers, first and formost (for the most part) negro leaguers were American citizens living here in the U.S. that were denied the rights granted to them by the constitution. Japanese players were not American citizens. What I do not understand about the argument to admit Japanese player to the Hall of Fame is the Why. Why should the Japanese players who never played baseball in the USA be in the National Hall of Fame located in Cooperstown, NY?

[Chisox]

Frankly, Rhodes did not look like even a Japanese HOFer until 2001 and the 55 HR. 1999 was nice, but that was the only season which was really special before that. It's that stretch of 55, 46, 51 and 45 HR with nice walk totals from 2001-2004 that put him in the range of Japanese HOFers. My definition of Japanese HOFers is derived from taking the 70 or so players inducted, and, after ranking all the significant players, eliminating those not yet eligible for consideration. When you get in the range of the top 70 eligibles, that's the area to draw the line. Rhodes adds some bulk to his resume in 4 of his first five years, but little more. I'd add that while I believe Rhodes has had such a career in Japan, it's not like I think he Kicks the doors open on his way in--more like sneaks in because of high peak performance. The bulking up after several years in Japan is the key to that assessment.

The bottom line is, yes, he looked better in Japan than he would have looked in the majors, because the majors are better. Even his first three years in Japan would be pretty marginal for a major league outfielder with his defensive skills if translated to the majors (cut the HR down by 30%, the avg down by 7%, and drop the rate of walks by almost 20%). He did something which improved his performance to lead to those four big years--but my point is, he could have done the same thing in the majors to perform far better than he had.

BTW--do you think Barry Bonds went to 73 homers in 2001 because of his move to the Giants from the Pirates? Or, because that happened years earlier, was it another cause, like those mutation-like changes in his body? C'mon, the statute of limitations on things like changing teams or leagues has to run out some time.

Rhodes stats can be found here: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=905

Jim Albright
Thanks for the stats. :)
Yes, I do think that "outside" factors played a role in Bonds' development. (Of course, we all know what those are, so if true, doesn't do the arguement much.) HOWEVER, Bonds was already one of, if not the single best player and hitter in the game for a decade before the explosion. His Giant stats for his 13 (now 14) season career is compariable to Ruth's with the Yanks, not just since '01. "Something" turned him from a .300/.450/.600 perennial player into a .350/.550/.800 player. In Karl's case, he went from being out of the majors to a HOF caliber player in Japan. I have NEVER seen anyone, naturally anyway (Canseco's admission), go from a nothing over a few seasons to an arguable All-Star (which is where Rhodes' projected stats would would put him) because of adding 20lbs of muscle. In other words, it's something that defies all logic known to baseball because of its rarity. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, I'm saying it would be, at least to my knowledge, unprecedented.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

First of all let me admit that I have not read through the entirity of the post so this point may have already been made.

That being said, pick up a history book and look at what was going on in the U.S. in the 1960's and see if you can answer your own question about why the negro leagues were excluded from the HOF in the 1960's. Just because MLB had admitted Negro Leaguers on their teams in the 1960's does not mean the players had unanamous support throught MLB. If you think the black players in the 1960's did not face racism just because they had finally been admitted to play MLB you are blind. Want to see how integrated MLB was in the 1960's? How many black players were in the A.L.? how many black players made the All-star team in the A.L. versus the N.L.? do not be fooled into thinking that America was ready to admit they were wrong about segregation in the 1960's just because they had started to admit the best of the best black players on the same field as white Major Leaguers.

IMO to suggest that the Japanese League is in anyway comparable to the Negro Leaguers and their case is as foolish as you believe the "national" argument is.
I have no idea what you are talking about. :confused: You admit that you have not read the entire thread then you have the nerve to cast aspersions? Get a clue. Who is talking about the racism that black players faced in the 1960s? There's no need for insults by calling me "blind". Bill James spoke about the Negro Leaguers in his HoF book, called, Politics of Glory. There was major resistance to inducting Negro Leaguers as full members. This resistance was led by Ford Frick and the reason he gave for not allowing Negro Leaguers is because they didn't play in the majors. Also, the original intent of the HoF was to allow only major leaguers. Do you actually think that when the Baseball HoF was founded that they gave any thought about allowing Negro Leaguers? I highly doubt it.

Oh, and by the way the Braves have not won 14 straight division tiltes so your avatar is wrong. They've won 14 titles in 15 seasons.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Actually I did not miss that at all, my response was more directly to the point that the HOF did not admit Negro Leaguers in the 1960's. Since you bring up the other issues let me state my opinion, MLB is a business and I believe that they have a right to run their business how they see fit, if you do not like the way they run it do not watch it. This is an extreme view, and I do not say you have to accept everything they do, but I do not believe we as fans have a right to say they must do this or they must do that. Also The HOF is not an institution run by MLB or the fans, and also like any other institution they have a right to set their policies as they see fit. If you have a strong dislike for their policy you do not have to support them, eventually if enough people stop supporting them then they may change their policy.

I believe there is a Baseball Hall of Fame in Japan that honors the players from the Japanese league. Despite the business decision to disallow Japanese players I still see their situation quite differently than the Negro Leaguers, first and formost (for the most part) negro leaguers were American citizens living here in the U.S. that were denied the rights granted to them by the constitution. Japanese players were not American citizens. What I do not understand about the argument to admit Japanese player to the Hall of Fame is the Why. Why should the Japanese players who never played baseball in the USA be in the National Hall of Fame located in Cooperstown, NY?
You need to get a clue and read the entire thread. Jim has posted his reasons many many times on this thread and on the Baaeball Guru website. If you are too lazy to read it then that is your problem. :rolleyes:

If you want to bother to read Jim's writings here you go...
http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright12.html
http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright13.html

And an article by Craig Tomarkin

http://baseballguru.com/ctomarkin/analysisctomarkin07.html

[jalbright]

Thanks for the stats. :)
Yes, I do think that "outside" factors played a role in Bonds' development. (Of course, we all know what those are, so if true, doesn't do the arguement much.) HOWEVER, Bonds was already one of, if not the single best player and hitter in the game for a decade before the explosion. His Giant stats for his 13 (now 14) season career is compariable to Ruth's with the Yanks, not just since '01. "Something" turned him from a .300/.450/.600 perennial player into a .350/.550/.800 player. In Karl's case, he went from being out of the majors to a HOF caliber player in Japan. I have NEVER seen anyone, naturally anyway (Canseco's admission), go from a nothing over a few seasons to an arguable All-Star (which is where Rhodes' projected stats would would put him) because of adding 20lbs of muscle. In other words, it's something that defies all logic known to baseball because of its rarity. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, I'm saying it would be, at least to my knowledge, unprecedented.

You're welcome for the stats. Tuffy quite suddenly "found" the power, which is why I'm willing to mention the explanation that Rhodes too may have had pharmacological help. Weird jumps can and do occur, possibly for this reason. One example would be Brady Anderson, 1996. He never hit as many as half his 50 that year in any other season. Rhodes was able to sustain it at a lower level, Anderson wasn't.

But more to the point, if the reason for Rhodes' improvement was solely due to going to Japan, why didn't it show up in any significant way in his first three seasons there? Whatever happened, my point is that the switch was not anywhere near the main reason.

Jim Albright

[Chisox]

You're welcome for the stats. Tuffy quite suddenly "found" the power, which is why I'm willing to mention the explanation that Rhodes too may have had pharmacological help. Weird jumps can and do occur, possibly for this reason. One example would be Brady Anderson, 1996. He never hit as many as half his 50 that year in any other season. Rhodes was able to sustain it at a lower level, Anderson wasn't.

But more to the point, if the reason for Rhodes' improvement was solely due to going to Japan, why didn't it show up in any significant way in his first three seasons there? Whatever happened, my point is that the switch was not anywhere near the main reason.

Jim Albright
Well, he did bat .234/.310/.349 with career highs of .234/.318/.387 in the Majors. In his first season in Japan, he batted .293/.363/.517. I don't know what those translate to, but to me that's a significant increase.
I have question, is there a difference between "KB" and "OKB" in the team column? His first 40 season was when "OKB" shows up for the first time.
Really, it's so much the fact that he had one great season there, it's the fact that he kept it up. I can see where all the stars align for one great season like Cash's 61, but it's the consistency in it that seriously makes me wonder how he went from rags to riches, so to speak.
Maybe I can put it this way: his immediate success is about how well I'd expect him to do against Minor Leaguers. His explosion is how I'd expect him to do against College. That's the trouble I'm having with it.

[jalbright]

Well, he did bat .234/.310/.349 with career highs of .234/.318/.387 in the Majors. In his first season in Japan, he batted .293/.363/.517. I don't know what those translate to, but to me that's a significant increase.
I have question, is there a difference between "KB" and "OKB" in the team column? His first 40 season was when "OKB" shows up for the first time.
Really, it's so much the fact that he had one great season there, it's the fact that he kept it up. I can see where all the stars align for one great season like Cash's 61, but it's the consistency in it that seriously makes me wonder how he went from rags to riches, so to speak.
Maybe I can put it this way: his immediate success is about how well I'd expect him to do against Minor Leaguers. His explosion is how I'd expect him to do against College. That's the trouble I'm having with it.

OKB represents a slight change in the corporate owner of the team. Japanese teams do usually go by their home city "Chicago White Sox", but by their corporate sponsor (if the Cubs are still owned by the Tribune, the "Tribune Cubs"). There was no other difference in the team, its park, etc. I agree the change in 2001-2004 is odd, and that's why I can't dismiss the PED issue in his case.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

If you're interested, I could run the conversions for Rhodes' first three years in Japan. I think his stats improved over his major league efforts for two reasons (I wish I had major league equivalents of his minor league record in the States): 1) the undeniable difference between the leagues, and 2) the benefit derived from playing consistently. Bill James in his seminal article on major league equivalents, cautioned against evaluating players on stints of less than 200 AB for a number of reasons. Perhaps more persuasive, though, is the standard quote you hear when a team sends a promising young hitter to the minors rather than keep him on the big club for spot duty: "we want him to play everyday and see some pitches, not sit on the bench" This is because few players, much less young ones, manage to handle a part-time bench role well. Their skills either remain static or atrophy rather than improve. When they play, they test their skills, and if they fail, they have to learn to adapt.

Back to Rhodes: only once did he appear for over 200 PA in the majors. He didn't do much in the majors, but I think he was a tad better than he showed in limited circumstances (though not exactly earth shattering, to be sure).

Jim Albright

[Brad Harris]

The Hall of Fame should change its rules to make eligible players who, through no fault of their own (i.e. "institutional" reasons) were prohibited from playing in the Major Leagues. This certainly includes Japanese Leaguers, but up to what point? Are JLers free to try the Majors now, or is it still relatively rare for one to try so, despite all the speculation in recent years? What's the status of the JL reserve clause now? Could an 18-year old JLer fly to the States and try out for a MLB team if he received an invite to spring training? Are Japanese amateurs eligible as MLB free agents?

Curious if the stars of today's JL would be eligible under the above definition, or if that problem has been resolved? At what point do we say "these JLers couldn't play here, but today's have the opportunity"?

[jpenrod]

HWR, sorry for my abrupt post earlier, I was having difficulty sorting through the many relevant posts about the U.S. constitution and our Bill of rights. That being said I have read the entire thread now I still do not see anything that changes my mind. I admit that I misinterpreted your post about the Negro Leaguers being admitted into the HOF in the 1960's, I thought you were implying that since they had been admitted into MLB they were on a level playing field. I realize now that I was in error on that point; however, I still believe there was a large push to keep the Negro Leaguers out of the HOF because of racial reasons, maybe not on the part of Mr. Frick. To answer your question about the HOF intending to admit Negro Leaguers when it was founded, no I do not believe they had any intention of admitting Negro Leaguers. At the time the Negro Leaguers were not allowed on the same field as the white ML Players so why should they admit them into their Hall of Fame.

As for the other bit about reading all of jalbrights reasons for admitting JL players into the Hall of Fame I see specific examples of why certain players would have fared well in the Majors, but I still see no compelling argument that the HOF should admit players from outside of the U.S. I am sure this is do in large part to me being a lazy person with no clue who likes to cast aspersions. While we are on this point I certainly did not mean to insult you by inferring you were blind if you believe that race played no part in the Negro Leaguers exclusion from the HOF, I apologize for any mental anguish I may have caused you.

One last point, I changed my user title just for you, but I chose to leave my avatar as is.

[jalbright]

The Hall of Fame should change its rules to make eligible players who, through no fault of their own (i.e. "institutional" reasons) were prohibited from playing in the Major Leagues. This certainly includes Japanese Leaguers, but up to what point? Are JLers free to try the Majors now, or is it still relatively rare for one to try so, despite all the speculation in recent years? What's the status of the JL reserve clause now? Could an 18-year old JLer fly to the States and try out for a MLB team if he received an invite to spring training? Are Japanese amateurs eligible as MLB free agents?

Curious if the stars of today's JL would be eligible under the above definition, or if that problem has been resolved? At what point do we say "these JLers couldn't play here, but today's have the opportunity"?

My understanding is that the major leagues don't show much if any interest in Japanese high schoolers and/or college kids, which puts the onus on the kids to chase the majors when there are Japanese teams offering contracts without being chased. Beyond that, I believe that for a young player of any stature, there would be significant societal pressure in Japan to go through the Japanese system first That system still ties players to the Japanese club until nine years of service with the big club (farm service does not count, to my understanding) unless the club chooses to cut or post the player. If my understanding is correct, I believe that set of circumstances is not a real choice for a young Japanese player--he'd be nuts not to sign with the Japanese team despite the restrictions. OTOH, I see no problem with refusing to consider any player born in the 1970's or later for Cooperstown unless he came to the majors and performed at a star level--which would occur in practice in any event.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Tuffy Rhodes major league equivalents, 1996-1998

Year.....G.....AB.....H.....2B.....3B.....HR...BB. ...avg/obp/slg
1996...162...624...171...35......2......20...51... .273/334/434
1997...162...613...176...44......0......16...84... .286/372/455
1998...161...593...142...29......0......16...78... .240/328/370

1998 is a bad year, though I can't discount the possibilty of injury. 1996 might get a young guy a shot, but that's hardly certain. Even 1997 wouldn't be a sure thing if the manager wasn't big on OBP--and since the competition is corner outfielders/first basemen/DHs, he could easily ride the pine that year too.

Jim Albright

[SABR Steve]

The reason that the issue of Negro Leaguers in the HoF came to forfront was because of Ted Williams' HoF speech. He argued for the Negro Leaguers in his speech. That was amazing. This started the floodgate to include Negro Leaguers. Before Williams speech there was not much thought about this.

Ted Williams is half Latino/Basque from his mother's side. He lacked the prejudices that others had and was able to freely speak from his heart about the Negro players.

[Chelle]

I know it's well into the post to stick in my two cents....but, if it's going to be an "international" HoF...then we'd have to start looking back at all other players that didn't play in the US...wouldn't we? Also, I don't have the baseball stats to back this up, but how do you compare different seasons...different games...etc.

If the AAGPBL don't even get to be official members (yes yes....got to represent the chicks) last I saw it was an "exhibit" why should we let those who do not play in the USA been in the Hall. If the are good and want to come here...come on....

Otherwise, I'm sure they are honored to be in their own Hall. Perhaps it is presumptous of us to think they even care.