"Active" Hall of Famers

[Brad Harris]

Guys who should get elected, based on what they've already done or can reasonably be expected to finish:

Pitchers
Clemens, Glavine, Johnson, Maddux, Martinez, Rivera

Catchers
Piazza, Rodriguez

First Basemen
Bagwell, Thomas

Second Basemen
Biggio, Kent

Shortstops
Jeter

Third Basemen
Rodriguez

Left Fielders
Bonds, Ramirez

Center Fielders
Griffey

Right Fielders
Sheffield

While I think there are probably going to be another half-dozen players nearing the end of their career right now who will belong by the time they've hung it up, these are the "obvious" choices.

I'm curious to see (a) what reasons someone may have for not believing one of these guys is a qualified Hall-of-Famer; and (b) if I've missed someone who's got as solid a case as these candidates.

[Taco De Muerte]

where the heck is bonds and randy johnson ?

I also think hoffman's a lock too.

[abacab]

Randy Johnson?

[justice22]

bonds can't be considered a clinch at all right now. i would definately say johnson. Frankly, I think Jim Edmonds is nearly a clincher. Unless he were to retire tomorrow, i can expect him to get a few more gold gloves, a couple of 30 hr seasons, and get into the hall. Ichiro is another person who I think will be elected. If he were to play his whole career in the major's, he'd be a sure fire 3000 hitter, and I think voters recognize it. If he retired today, I think he would manage to get in for breaking the line for japanese position players. Those are my only additions.

[Brad Harris]

Egg on my face....if Bonds and Johnson aren't shoo-ins (steroid discussion aside) then I'm a baboon. (Don't ask my wife to verify that.) Can't believe I missed them. :laugh

Didn't put Hoffman in the group because I don't think he's quite got the same level of "universal" support that Rivera does. Exactly the kind of player I was hoping to see brought up in this thread!

[Taco De Muerte]

bonds can't be considered a clinch at all right now.


Bonds is a lock. The HOF would lose a gigantic amount of credibility if they kept him out. Anyway, it's ridiculous to have sheffield listed and not bonds, when they are both equally involved in the " BAlco scandal ".

[The Dude]

One player I think is sorely missing from the list, is Chipper Jones.

Is there a chance he'll fall to the curse of the 3B? No, I don't believe so. In an Era of statistics such as this, I believe there will be enough awareness of Chipper Jones great level of play for nearly a decade. Add the fact that he was usually considered the best hot corner player by the casual fan for almost a decade, his MVP award, and being one of the corner stones of the Braves dynasty, I think he's already a cinch.

I don't think Hoffmans a lock, but I'd say right now, he's about as close as you can be without truly being a lock. One more season, MAYBE two good ones and he'll be a lock.

[Taco De Muerte]

One player I think is sorely missing from the list, is Chipper Jones.

Is there a chance he'll fall to the curse of the 3B? No, I don't believe so. In an Era of statistics such as this, I believe there will be enough awareness of Chipper Jones great level of play for nearly a decade. Add the fact that he was usually considered the best hot corner player by the casual fan for almost a decade, his MVP award, and being one of the corner stones of the Braves dynasty, I think he's already a cinch.

Delgado, thome, giambi, schilling, mussina, juan gonzalez. These are just a few guy's off the top of my head who have been " elite " in this era. The majority of them probably won't make it, but who knows.

[Imapotato]

My list is much slimmer

SP-Maddux, Clemens, Schilling (don't tell me his 'heroics' don't count), Martinez

C-Piazza
1b-Bagwell, Ortiz (maybe, if he continues on his pace, plus his sudden hits and HRs at the same time in 'heroic' fashion)
2b-Biggio
3b-Chipper Jones
SS-Jeter, Rodriguez
LF-Bonds
CF-Andruw Jones
RF-none

[The Dude]

Schilling a lock but not Johnson?

[BoSox Rule]

Pitchers
Roger Clemens
Pedro Martinez
Greg Maddux
Randy Johnson
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman
Billy Wagner has the quality, let's how much longer he goes and how well he pitches in that time.

Catcher
Mike Piazza
Ivan Rodriguez

First Base
Frank Thomas
Jeff Bagwell
Todd Helton
Hard not to put Pujols on this list. Obviously not as of now, but come on...

Second Base
Roberto Alomar
Craig Biggio
Jeff Kent with 2-3 more quality years, wasn't a quality player until age 30.

Shortstop
Derek Jeter should be deserving by the time his career is over
Alex Rodriguez

Third Base
Chipper Jones, unless his defense is as bad as the numbers show, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of doubt as of now due to his amazing bat - .313 EqA.

Left Field
Barry Bonds
Manny Ramirez
Rickey Henderson (?)

Centerfield
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Andruw Jones (Already more valuable than Jeter, 3 years younger, and a lot more quietly)
Jim Edmonds (3 more years of Edmonds ball)

Right Field
Gary Sheffield is closer than most fans want to admit

[538280]

Right Field
Gary Sheffield is closer than most fans want to admit

Gary Sheffield should be a lock right now. I've made my case with him before. He's one of the best players of the past 15 or so years. Stop and look at his 1996 season for a second, and tell me that's not an all time great hitting year. It is. He had a 139 relative OBP, which I'd think has to be the best mark anyone has put up in a long time, except for Bonds.

And 1996 isn't really out of context with the rest of his career. He was almost as good in 1992, 2000, 2001, and 2003. Then take a look at his 1997 season, which was considered a big let down season for him. He had a .638 offensive winning percentage that year, which means given average pitching and fielding a team with 9 1997 Gary Sheffields hitting would win about 104 games.

That's still a hell of a year, would be a career year for most players, yet for him it was a down year, even sticks out as such when you look at his stats.

You're a hell of a player when you have an OPS+ of 134 in your off year. Other than Dick Allen, what non HOF player can say that?

Maybe I'm slightly biased, because I always have like Sheffield, but based on any objective analysis he comes out as a surefire HOF caliber player, and easily one of the top 100 of all time (I have him #46 currently).

[ElHalo]

Gary Sheffield should be a lock right now. I've made my case with him before. He's one of the best players of the past 15 or so years. Stop and look at his 1996 season for a second, and tell me that's not an all time great hitting year. It is. He had a 139 relative OBP, which I'd think has to be the best mark anyone has put up in a long time, except for Bonds.

Frank Thomas had seasons of 142 and 139.

I honestly don't see Kent as a lock. His numbers from 2B are certainly impressive, but he's always flown under the radar, and his personality won't help.

I'd like to see Tom Glavine miss, but I don't think that's happening.

[Taco De Muerte]

Gary Sheffield should be a lock right now. I've made my case with him before. He's one of the best players of the past 15 or so years. Stop and look at his 1996 season for a second, and tell me that's not an all time great hitting year. It is. He had a 139 relative OBP, which I'd think has to be the best mark anyone has put up in a long time, except for Bonds.

And 1996 isn't really out of context with the rest of his career. He was almost as good in 1992, 2000, 2001, and 2003. Then take a look at his 1997 season, which was considered a big let down season for him. He had a .638 offensive winning percentage that year, which means given average pitching and fielding a team with 9 1997 Gary Sheffields hitting would win about 104 games.

That's still a hell of a year, would be a career year for most players, yet for him it was a down year, even sticks out as such when you look at his stats.

You're a hell of a player when you have an OPS+ of 134 in your off year. Other than Dick Allen, what non HOF player can say that?

Maybe I'm slightly biased, because I always have like Sheffield, but based on any objective analysis he comes out as a surefire HOF caliber player, and easily one of the top 100 of all time (I have him #46 currently).

I agree with all of this. Infact a goodcase could be made that sheffield's the best Rightfielder of his generation.

[538280]

I agree with all of this. Infact a goodcase could be made that sheffield's the best Rightfielder of his generation.

Yeah, and with maybe one or two more decent years from him he could have a case as being the #4 RFer of all time, only behind Ruth, Aaron, and Robinson. I'm not saying that I'd agree with it, but I could see how in a couple years someone could say he's better than Reggie and Ott, currently for me holding spots #4 and #5.

[Appling]

Guys who should get elected, based on what they've already done or can reasonably be expected to finish:


Yours is a great list. I suggest only a few changes:

Pitchers
Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Maddux, Martinez, Rivera

Catchers
Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez

First Basemen
Bagwell, Thomas

Second Basemen
Biggio (not Kent)

Shortstops
Jeter, ALEX RODRIGUEZ

Third Basemen
CHIPPER JONES

Left Fielders
Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez

Center Fielders
Griffey Jr.

Right Fielders
SAMMY SOSA

The current group of pitchers may be the best ever. Mostly first-ballot choices so long as they become eligible at different times.

IMO Alex Rodriguez is the best all-around shortstop in the last 100 years. I don't see him spending more than another year or two at third base. Somehow the best SS needs to return to his natural position.

Jeter reminds me of Rizzuto. I don't think the BBWAA will vote him to the Hall, but probably some Veteran's Committee will vote him in 20 years after he retires.

Sosa belongs as much as anyone on the list. The only player with three seasons of 60+ homeruns should be recognized, even though his skills have certainly diminished lately.

[ElHalo]

Yeah, and with maybe one or two more decent years from him he could have a case as being the #4 RFer of all time, only behind Ruth, Aaron, and Robinson. I'm not saying that I'd agree with it, but I could see how in a couple years someone could say he's better than Reggie and Ott, currently for me holding spots #4 and #5.

Until the latter part of his career, he was too injury prone. Doesn't really have those long, long strings of 100 R / 100 RBI seasons you like to see on stat sheets. Then again, neither did Mickey.

[west coast orange and black]

pitchers
clemens, glavine, johnson, maddux, martinez, rivera

catchers
piazza, rodriguez

first basemen
bagwell, thomas

second basemen
biggio, kent

shortstops
jeter, rodriguez

third basemen
none

left fielders
bonds, henderson, ramirez

center fielders
griffey

right fielders
sosa

[unfinished_business]

Jeter reminds me of Rizzuto. I don't think the BBWAA will vote him to the Hall, but probably some Veteran's Committee will vote him in 20 years after he retires.


Jeter will likely finish with more than 3000 Hits and thus a first Ballot BBWAA election!

[Tigerfan1974]

"Active" Hall of Famer? No such thing! ;)

Future Hall of Famer I will go for!

From your list, I think the possibles and/or probables are-

Pitchers
Clemens, Glavine, Johnson, Maddux

Catchers
Rodriguez

First Basemen
Thomas

Second Basemen
Kent

Shortstops
Jeter, Rodriguez

Third Basemen


Left Fielders
Bonds

Center Fielders
Griffey

Right Fielders

[Brad Harris]

Chipper Jones
I have been used to thinking of Chipper Jones as a guy who was behind where he "needed" to be in order to get "on track" for Cooperstown, but after 7,000 plate appearances, the guy has a .300+ BA, .400+ OBP, and .500+ SLG! Wow!

While not in the no-brainer category, I believe you'd be right in saying Jones will be thought of as the third baseman of the Nineties. (With apologies to the very talented Robin Ventura.)

Be nice to see him get the recognition he's earned over the years.

Jeff Kent
All other things aside, how do you justify leaving a man out of the Hall of Fame who is the career leader in home runs at his position and won an MVP Award?

[DoubleX]

I think I'd throw Chipper Jones onto the list as well. He's actually just entered my top 10 3B, and I can't imagine he's that much further behind for most.

[BlairRosen]

Does everyone here believe Palmeiro will be left off most ballots when his time comes?

[BlairRosen]

Starting Pitchers-
Roger Clemens
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine
Curt Schilling

Closers-
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman

* John Smoltz (If he ever returns to the closer role for a team and is able to accumulate another 150+ saves combined with his win totals I feel he is a HOFer)

* Billy Wagner (He is very close and a popular player on evry team he has played.I think he needs 3-4 more seasons of 35-45 saves per season to be a HOFer.)

Catchers -
Mike Piazza
Ivan Rodriguez

First Basemen -
Frank Thomas
Jeff Bagwell

* Albert Pujols (The first five years of his career are equal to anyone in the history of Major League Baseball.His future is brighter than any other current player with less than ten seasons under his belt.)

Second Basemen -
Craig Biggio
Jeff Kent

Shortstop -
Derek Jeter

* Alex Rodriguez (I continue to rate him as the second greatest shortstop to play the game until someone better comes along or he plays more games at third.)

Third Basemen -
Chipper Jones

* Scott Rolen (The best fielding third sacker in the majors.If he returns to form and has 4-5 more all-star years with the Cards he will be a HOFer.)


Left Fielders -
Barry Bonds
Manny Ramirez

Center Fielders -
Ken Griffey Jr

* Andruw Jones (The ability is there but he needs to shine bright with the bat for 3-5 more seasons.)

Right Fielders -
Sammy Sosa
Gary Sheffield

[GiambiJuice]

Albert Pujols

[Brad Harris]

Does everyone here believe Palmeiro will be left off most ballots when his time comes?

I wasn't counting "retired" players (Walker, Palmeiro, Sosa) in the original post, though we're welcome to add them to the discussion.

[holyroman]

Frank Thomas had seasons of 142 and 139.

I honestly don't see Kent as a lock. His numbers from 2B are certainly impressive, but he's always flown under the radar, and his personality won't help.

I'd like to see Tom Glavine miss, but I don't think that's happening.


what does flying under the radar have to do with it?

[holyroman]

"Active" Hall of Famer? No such thing! ;)

Future Hall of Famer I will go for!

From your list, I think the possibles and/or probables are-

Pitchers
Clemens, Glavine, Johnson, Maddux

Catchers
Rodriguez

First Basemen
Thomas

Second Basemen
Kent

Shortstops
Jeter, Rodriguez

Third Basemen


Left Fielders
Bonds

Center Fielders
Griffey

Right Fielders
you left off bagwell and biggio, dude you can't do this while having thomas and kent of all people on there

[538280]

Until the latter part of his career, he was too injury prone. Doesn't really have those long, long strings of 100 R / 100 RBI seasons you like to see on stat sheets. Then again, neither did Mickey.

Is this actually meant to be an argument against Sheffield for the HOF? If it is, then, well I have nothing to say.

The fact Sheff doesn't have "those long, long strings of 100 R / 100 RBI seasons you like to see on stat sheets" doesn't matter. The guy has been a FORCE his entire career.

Here's an exercise for anyone to do who's skeptical of Sheffield's case:

Come up with a method to objectively rate seasons post expansion (1961). It will be almost impossibly to come up with a sensible method that doesn't rate Sheffield's '96 at least in the top 30.

Then, knowing he had one of the truly great offensive seasons of the past 35 years, look at some of his other best seasons. You'll find they're really not much behind his '96. So, he had one of the top 30 seasons and probably at least 5 others than are at least top 100.

Then look at his not as great seasons (like 1997), and ask yourself "Would this be a career year for most players?"

The answer, you'll find, to that last question is unquestionably yes. How can a guy who A)Had one of the best offensive seasons in modern baseball history, B)Had at least 5 other seasons near that level of that one, and C)In his not as great seasons, was still a legitimately great player and had what would be a career year for 90% of players, not be a HOFer?

The logic for the non-Sheffield people (which, according to recent polls is close to a majority) evades me. By any objective measure I can think of, this guy is easily one of the top 100 players of all time, and by most things in the top third of that easily as well (401 career Win Shares good for 44th all time, 52nd all tiem in MVP shares, 114.8 WARP3).

Sure, most people seem to dislike him (though I personally like him), but there are idiots in the Hall, their are criminals in the Hall, there are just plain nasty people in the Hall. Your personaility has nothign to do with your greatness of a ballplayer

I see many parallels between the Sheffield case and the Dick Allen one. Some people just can't see reality. IMO (and almost all the objective evidence agrees with me), Sheffield is a top 50 player of all time, making him a legitimate first ballot HOFer.

[vasprtsfn]

While I dont like talking about a guys HOF worthiness until he has retired, of that list you posted, the only ones that I believe are HOF locks IMHO are Clemens, Maddux, Rivera, Bagwell, Ramirez, and Glavine.

[Brad Harris]

You don't think Piazza and I-Rod are locks? Piazza has hit more home runs than any catcher in history; Rodriguez has won more gold gloves (and an MVP and a World Series).

[vasprtsfn]

I-Rod's offensive production in the last 4 years has tapered off considerably. Since 2002, only 68 HR. Hasnt cracked 100 RBIs since 1999, only 3 years of 80 or more RBIs since. Only once has he ever cracked 30 HR and 100 RBIs. Granted he has won all the awards like silver slugger and gold gloves, but I need to see much better power production in the next few years before I would feel comfortable calling him a HOFer. Mike Piazza is the same story. Piazza hasnt cracked 100 RBIs since 2000, only 50 HRs and 150 RBIs in last 3 years, hasnt cracked 150 Hits and .300 BA since 2001. He is another one that has to put up better numbers the next few years before I would be ready to call him a HOFer. And if both of these guys do, I would call them HOF locks. The guys I mentioned before, I would call them 1st ballot locks. Piazza and I-Rod need to turn their careers around in the next few years for me to call them HOFers.

[jalbright]

I-Rod's offensive production in the last 4 years has tapered off considerably. Since 2002, only 68 HR. Hasnt cracked 100 RBIs since 1999, only 3 years of 80 or more RBIs since. Only once has he ever cracked 30 HR and 100 RBIs. Granted he has won all the awards like silver slugger and gold gloves, but I need to see much better power production in the next few years before I would feel comfortable calling him a HOFer. Mike Piazza is the same story. Piazza hasnt cracked 100 RBIs since 2000, only 50 HRs and 150 RBIs in last 3 years, hasnt cracked 150 Hits and .300 BA since 2001. He is another one that has to put up better numbers the next few years before I would be ready to call him a HOFer. And if both of these guys do, I would call them HOF locks. The guys I mentioned before, I would call them 1st ballot locks. Piazza and I-Rod need to turn their careers around in the next few years for me to call them HOFers.

The problem with this is you seem to be using 1B/DH/OF hitting standards for two great catchers. Both men have been all-stars 12 times, and Piazza is 29th in all-time MVP shares among position players. Piazza is one of the five best catchers ever, so if he doesn't belong, you don't have many catchers in your HOF. Sure, both guys have tailed off earlier than other position players, as aging catchers are wont to do. But compared to the greatest at their position of catcher, they've done quite well.

Jim Albright

[Ubiquitous]

Frank Thomas had seasons of 142 and 139.

I honestly don't see Kent as a lock. His numbers from 2B are certainly impressive, but he's always flown under the radar, and his personality won't help.

I'd like to see Tom Glavine miss, but I don't think that's happening.


Take away Barry's 2000's run and Sheffield 1996 season is good for 14th since 1970. The best? Wade Boggs, then Giambi, then Frank Thomas.

Gary's 1996 OBP has more to do with his insane walk rate then anything else, well that and getting hit by a pitch 10 times as well. He walked 142 times, 19 of them intentionally, I'm willing to bet another 20 or so unintentionally intentionally as well. He was crushing the ball like he never did before and it caused his walks to spike.

[digglahhh]

Pitchers
Clemens, Glavine, Johnson, Maddux


I'm assuming you just forgot Pedro.

...and Piazza as well.

[digglahhh]

I've stated this opinion several times before, but I don't think Kent is a lock at all. If I had a vote, he would be a tough call, and I think I'd come down on the "No" side, though I see the "Yes" argument clearly.

IMO, the crux of his case is positional. But, he is a bad second baseman. The positional argument doesn't take into consideration the quality of play at that position. In my mind, Kent doesn't get a full positional adjustment, while somebody like Alomar does. Kent to me is a very good hitter who happens to play second base.

Now, I know he plays it well enough to play for a ML team, and to some that's enough. I see that argument. But on the other hand, if he were in the AL and his team had to opportunity to sign a true 2b, like say, Orlando Hudson, they probably would, and just DH Kent. Then he would have no "positional value." So, IMO his positional value is tenous and predicated more on circumstance than ability. It could go from the most extreme positive adjustment to the most extreme negative adjustment jsut by changing leagues.

[leecemark]

--Kent is not such a bad secondbaseman that most teams would want to reduce his value so much by moving him to DH. If he was to be moved, at least when he was younger it would probably be to 3B (where he played fairly well early in his career). If he was in the AL now maybe he ends up at DH, but I seriously doubt that happens until the last couple years. In fact, when he was a FA last year he ended up with the Dodgers, not an AL club (and had he gone to the AL I'd bet it would have been a team in need of a secondbaseman).

[digglahhh]

Perhaps, Mark.

I mean this is all speculation anyway, I just just trying to make my point through a hypothetical.

To use the extremely simple criteria of a team needing to have a superior defender at 2B to Kent and an inferior DH. Just for the sake of argument, you could say that (with last year's rosters) Kent would have fit in best as a DH on:

Toronto, Tampa Bay (assuming Gomes plays the OF), Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Oakland and Seattle.

That's about half the AL teams.

[538280]

Maybe he would "fit" as a DH, but his value would be lower. If I were the GM of one of those teams and I hoped to get Kent I'd probably try to trade my current 2Bman for a pretty good hitter who can DH for me while Kent stays at second.

Kent, IMO, is a HOFer. He's very similar to Larry Doyle (who may belong in too), but Doyle played when 2B was an offensive position. I think Chancellor made a good point when he mentioned two things, 1.That Kent was an MVP, and 2.He is the all time leader in home runs from a 2Bman. Sure, those things may be misleading or meanlingless for one reason or another, but it's going to be real hard to justify keeping a player with those two credentials out of the Hall.

BTW, I personally hate Kent, can't stand him. Think he's a rascist. But that's another matter. The guy can play baseball, and that's all that matters with the HOF.

[digglahhh]

Maybe he would "fit" as a DH, but his value would be lower. If I were the GM of one of those teams and I hoped to get Kent I'd probably try to trade my current 2Bman for a pretty good hitter who can DH for me while Kent stays at second.


That's why I prefaced my little hypothetical by saying its was over-simplified. But, IMO Kent is one of those guys who exemplifies the fragility of the case built on a positional adjustment, especially when the candidate doesn't even play the position particularly well.

Are we going to have to go through this again in 8 years for Alfonso Soriano (assuming he resumes his 2B job somewhere else next year)?

Also, I don't think he deserved that MVP (Bonds, or maybe Piazza) and I don't like him either.

[leecemark]

--Kent is a better second baseman and a better hitter than Soriano and Alphonso doesn't appear to aging well. Or staying at 2B for that matter. I seriously doubt that we will ever be having a Hall of Fame debate over Soriano.

[Brad Harris]

Jeff Kent
5-time All Star
2000 NL MVP (three other times in top 10 in MVP voting)
4 Silver Slugger Awards (at second base)

In 8,028 plate appearances, Kent has fashioned a .354 career OBP and .506 career SLG. His OPS+? 126! He's collected 3,621 total bases and 1,312 runs batted in; he's collected 100+ RBI in 8 of the last 9 seasons.

Oh yeah, and his 331 home runs are a record for second base, 10% more than Rogers Hornsby (2nd all-time) hit. (He has 11 seasons of 20+ home runs, including the last 9 in a row.)

Despite the knocks on Kent's fielding, his career fielding percentage at second is league average and his career range factor is 10 percent above league average, which is pretty good for someone who supposedly can't field. His 1,677 games at second base are 24th all-time and evidence that his teams haven't felt his defense is poor enough to move him from the position.

How he ranks among second basemen, all-time?

HR - 1st
RBI - 4th
2B - 7th
TB - 11th
G @ Pos - 24

Kent's opponents are going to have to arrive at a better reason for opposing his candidacy than the fact they just aren't used to thinking of him as a candidate.

[justice22]

Does anyone else see Ichiro as a lock? I would be hard-pressed not to vote for him. His career stats won't be the best, but if we were to take a look at
1.What he's done for the game
2.What his career stats would be assuming he came in at hiss peak
I think we could see that he's awfully deserving of an election.

[Brian McKenna]

The HOF would lose a gigantic amount of credibility if they kept him out. .

people may not see it that way in six or seven years

[Taco De Muerte]

people may not see it that way in six or seven years

Well, maybe the retarded people, but I doubt he gets left off in the first place.

It would be a complete sham if it did happen.

[J W]

Guys who should get elected, based on what they've already done or can reasonably be expected to finish:

Pitchers
Clemens, Glavine, Johnson, Maddux, Martinez, Rivera

Catchers
Piazza, Rodriguez

First Basemen
Bagwell, Thomas

Second Basemen
Biggio, Kent

Shortstops
Jeter

Third Basemen
Rodriguez

Left Fielders
Bonds, Ramirez

Center Fielders
Griffey

Right Fielders
Sheffield

While I think there are probably going to be another half-dozen players nearing the end of their career right now who will belong by the time they've hung it up, these are the "obvious" choices.

I'm curious to see (a) what reasons someone may have for not believing one of these guys is a qualified Hall-of-Famer; and (b) if I've missed someone who's got as solid a case as these candidates.

Those are certainly the biggest names. Several of which will be tied in with the steroid era--but we'll leave that aside for the moment.

Kent, Glavine, and Sheffield are probably the closest to being off that list... but another name I'm not certain is 100% lock at the moment is Derek Jeter. He starts the season shy of 2000 hits and while his numbers warrant election, now much of the negative spin put on his career will affect voters?

Interestingly enough, his RF and RF9 scores have shot up the past two years, with Alex Rodriguez manning third base. At the same time, A-Rod's numbers have gone down relative to his position. Jeter consequently wins the AL Gold Glove at SS in 2004 and 2005.

I don't think it'll be an issue at all by the time Jeter retires. In fact, I think he will stick around for 3000 hits, and maybe a few hundred over that. Of course, I said as much about Roberto Alomar at such an age.

[Tigerfan1974]

I'm assuming you just forgot Pedro.

...and Piazza as well.

Assume all you want. It's just my opinion, that's all.

[ESPNFan]

Does anyone else see Ichiro as a lock? I would be hard-pressed not to vote for him. His career stats won't be the best, but if we were to take a look at
1.What he's done for the game
2.What his career stats would be assuming he came in at hiss peak
I think we could see that he's awfully deserving of an election.

Hmmm you know Its tough to say a guy who has only been in the league for 5 years as a "lock". That being said he has gotten over 200 hits in each of his seasons and been a pretty outstanding player for all of his five seasons. But I think he will need at least another five years like te previous to have a least an outside chance.

[ESPNFan]

Well, maybe the retarded people, but I doubt he gets left off in the first place.

It would be a complete sham if it did happen.

I know Bob Ryan is bad but "retarded people"?!?

[jalbright]

In response to a question asking if Ichiro was a "lock" for the HOF, there was this response:
Hmmm you know Its tough to say a guy who has only been in the league for 5 years as a "lock". That being said he has gotten over 200 hits in each of his seasons and been a pretty outstanding player for all of his five seasons. But I think he will need at least another five years like te previous to have a least an outside chance.

The response correctly indicates that Ichiro is hard to see as a lock since he's only been active a few years here. I disagree with the last sentence to the extent that if Ichiro a) plays into his 10th year in the majors (thus clearly qualifying for HOF consideration), b) maintains at least a .300 MLB average (very likely, since so much of his value is in that average, and he'd have to hit quite a bit under .300 for some time to drop his career average that low, so much so that I don't think he'd get the chance), and c) he reaches 2000 or more MLB hits, I'd put money on Ichiro making it. He'll have the batting titles, the single season hit record, the All-Star appearances, and an MVP, and the Hall has elected the vast majority of outfielders with career averages over .300 who got at least 2000 career hits. This is without giving Ichiro any credit for what he did in Japan. If he doesn't meet the first or third conditions, then it could get dicey.

Jim Albright

[STLCards2]

Pitchers: Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Martinez, Glavine, Rivera

1B: Bagwell, Thomas

2B: Biggio

3B: Rodriguez

SS: Jeter

C: Rodriguez, Piazza

LF: Bonds, Ramirez

CF: Griffey

RF: Guerrero, Sheffield

I am on the fence on: Smoltz, Kent, and Hoffman. I could go either way with any of these three.

[ESPNFan]

In response to a question asking if Ichiro was a "lock" for the HOF, there was this response:


The response correctly indicates that Ichiro is hard to see as a lock since he's only been active a few years here. I disagree with the last sentence to the extent that if Ichiro a) plays into his 10th year in the majors (thus clearly qualifying for HOF consideration), b) maintains at least a .300 MLB average (very likely, since so much of his value is in that average, and he'd have to hit quite a bit under .300 for some time to drop his career average that low, so much so that I don't think he'd get the chance), and c) he reaches 2000 or more MLB hits, I'd put money on Ichiro making it. He'll have the batting titles, the single season hit record, the All-Star appearances, and an MVP, and the Hall has elected the vast majority of outfielders with career averages over .300 who got at least 2000 career hits. This is without giving Ichiro any credit for what he did in Japan. If he doesn't meet the first or third conditions, then it could get dicey.

Jim Albright

Hey Jim,
See I agree with you on the service time in Japan. It's the baseball Hall of Fame not the MLB Hall. You Know I see Ichiro in a very similar way that I viewed Warren Moon's football career. Both players excelled in their orginal (and inferior, or at least percieved as) leagues. Both players broke ground in terms of race and the perceptions of said races abilities to play at a high level. Both were instantly successfull in their new league (Moon was saddled with some truely awful Oiler teams for his first three years). The probelm is that you and I are not the voters. I am taking into account that there are going to be writers/voters that will almost completely discount Ichiro's accomplishments in Japan or his impact as an Asian player. Given the bullheaded nature of those I felt that he would have to put up All star Caliber numbers for about ten years, and a couple more seasons on top of that wouldn't hurt. With recent events in Hall Of Fame voting I have become very pessimistic in terms of players who are not on that "Immortal" all time star level.

[futurehalloffamer]

Left Field
Barry Bonds
Manny Ramirez
Rickey Henderson (?)

What's up with the question mark by Henderson's name? Are you not sure he's gonna make it?

[J W]

I think he means we won't know if Henderson plays again until his days on earth are behind him.

And even then you can't be sure. :p

[Appling]

if Ichiro a) plays into his 10th year in the majors (thus clearly qualifying for HOF consideration)...

If he doesn't meet the first or third conditions, then it could get dicey.

Jim Albright
I think it all falls on his making it for the required minimum of ten seasons. If he does that, the other stuff most likely will follow and he is in. If he falls short of ten seasons he does not qualify.

I long thought that Monte Irvin was elected for his star performance with the Giants, but later learned that Irvin had only 8 MLB seasons. He was elected for his service in the Negro leagues. It may be called the Baseball Hall of Fame, but it is truly the MLB Hall of Fame -- with occasional deferences to the Negro League.

[BoSox Rule]

What's up with the question mark by Henderson's name? Are you not sure he's gonna make it?
If he will be active again or not.

[jalbright]

I think it all falls on his making it for the required minimum of ten seasons. If he does that, the other stuff most likely will follow and he is in. If he falls short of ten seasons he does not qualify.

I long thought that Monte Irvin was elected for his star performance with the Giants, but later learned that Irvin had only 8 MLB seasons. He was elected for his service in the Negro leagues. It may be called the Baseball Hall of Fame, but it is truly the MLB Hall of Fame -- with occasional deferences to the Negro League.

Certainly, as the rules stand, you are correct. However, it is easy to see circumstances in which folks would still clamor for him and in which the rules could well be bent/modified in his favor.

Jim Albright

[Appling]

Does anyone know if MLB was "closed" to players from the Japanese leagues, as it was to players in the US Negro leagues?

Why did we not have Japanese players in the USA? Was it because they preferred playing in Japan, or because they were "locked out" in some way?

Or perhaps no MLB owners thought any of the Japanese players were good enough?

[jalbright]

I wrote this article entitled Why Haven't We Had More Japanese Players in the Majors: http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright15.html

Hope this helps answer the question.

Jim Albright

[digglahhh]

Look, my argument against Kent is way more substantial than "I just don't see him as a candidate."

I certainly wouldn't complain if he made it.

Sitting near the top of the lists in several offensive categories amongst secondbasemen is not really amazing me.

a) Because he isn't a particularly good 2Bman. I give no credence to range factor, just so you know

b) This was all done in an a very friendly era for offense

c) I am not a fan of big positional adjustments.

You know, the say that the amount words needed to qualify one's greatness is inversely proportionate to how great they actually were. For the HOF, there should be little to no qualification necessary.

I don't want to say that the Kent case is a house of cards, but it doesn't take long to counter any of the arguments I hear in his favor. He certainly wouldn't be the worst choice, but he's on the bubble to me.