STLCards2
03-22-2006, 11:35 PM
Here is my annual push to get Tom Glavine the recognition he deserves. If it looks familiar, it is because I have posted this a few times in the past couple of months.
Glavine will probably win 300 games or very close to it with a very good .600 W% (.630 since 1991) to boot. Any notion that he is "Suttoning" his way to 300 wins is absurd.
5 20-win seasons (led league all five times)
120 career ERA+ (128 since 1991, 125 since that horrible rookie season)
almost 4,000 innigs pitched (Top 10: 12 times)
Top 10 Games started: 12 times
Top 10 ERA: 8 times
Top 10 ERA+: 9 times
Top 10 wins: 10 times
Top 10 W%: 8 times
Top 10 complete games: 8 times
Top 10 shutouts: 10 times
2 Cy Youngs (top 3 in voting on six occasions)
9 All- Star appearances
Almost 300 Win Shares
Glavine is in the top 30 all-time in RSAA.
Glavine scores a 157 on the HOF monitor, or good for 37th ...and still climbing.
Over the past 15 years, Glavine's ERA+ has been has been under 105 once, and under 118 only three times. 8 times Glavine's ERA+ has been over 130. 5 times over 140.
World Series MVP and career 2.50 World Series ERA.
4 Silver Sluggers
Glavine would have won numerous Gold Gloves if Maddux wasn't around.
IT TOOK A TAXI ACCIDENT TO PUT HIM ON HIS ONLY DL STINT! It takes Kerry Wood a hangnail.
Glavine was the cornerstone of the greatest pitching staff of all-time. Remember, it was Glavine who was the staff ace, two-time 20 game winner, and two-time All-Star Game starter for the first two Braves World Series teams before Maddux was a Brave.
People complain about the 1.30 WHIP (which is still well above normal), but remember, Glavine's XB/9 rate is very low, and is afforded to give up more singles. Especialy when you have one of the greatest double plays induced rates ever (even higher than Maddux, who is much more of a ground ball pitcher and pitched more innings.) Glavine's total bases per 9 innings rate is very good, and his slugging % against is lower than the likes of Schilling, Mussina and many, many others with much superior WHIPs. That .7 HR/9 ratio and a 1.30 WHIP is just as effective as a 1.18 WHIP and a 1.0 HR/9 ratio.
1.5 GB/FO ratio. (Many of those FO are harmless nubbers off of right hander's bats trying to pull a change-up)
By the way, did I mention that Glavine's WHIP is better than everybodies' favorite, Bob Feller? It is also almost as low as Lefty Grove's! (not sayin Glavine is better, just that if you use WHIP as a reason to leave Glavine out of Cooperstown, then Feller shouldn't even sniff your top 10.)
Glavine is very effective at holding runners, preventing hit batsmen, preventing wild pitches, and balks. All of these things add up to a lot of extra bases over the course of a season. If "secondary average" is important for batters like Biggio, than why does nobody talk about the "secondary" ways to keep runners from advancing bases?
I do believe that some pitchers such as Glavine do have some control over where the ball is hit and if an out is produced, and he is also very good at this skill. Despite a few years, which can be easily explained by just leaving the ball over the plate more than normal, Glavines BABIP is very good. In my opinion, this legitimizes his double play rates. If you don't agree with this statement, then I guess Glavine getting 20-30 double plays every year is random luck year...after year...after year...after year...after year...:laugh
I wish I had the stats, but I know for a fact that Glavine's BAA w/ ROB and K w/ROB are far superior to his normal rates. His BAA w/RISP and K w/RISP are superior to that. I know clutch is a dirty word for many, but he "know how to make the right pitches when he needs to." This is a good indication of how Glavine pitches: pitch to contact to avoid high pitch counts (which increases WHIP with little singles), then throw a little harder with more movement with men on base. In 1994, Glavine was one of the NL leaders in strikeouts because he made an effort to do so. There was a problem, he also gave up more extra base hits, because while striking out more batters, he also left the ball around the plate more. In 1995, Glavine intintionaly threw with less velocity and went on to have a great season. Glavine could have had higher K rates if he wanted to, but it would have thrown off his rythm, as it did in 1994.
There are three ways in which a pitcher's team can drasitcaly effect his stats. The team's defense, offense, and bullpen. It has widely been regarded that Glavine has had a lot of support in these areas however...
Glavine's career run support is 102. Only 2% higher than league average. In fact, 102 is lower than the average Hall of Famer.
Glavine has recieved good (not Jim Plamer good) defensive support. His all-time adjusted NRA is 3.82, and his DERA is 3.85. Hardly earth shattering support. by the way, I could list a whole bunch of Hall of Famers with higher DERA than Glavine.
Glavine has the sixth worst bullpen support of any starter with 2000 IP since 1969. ("Banking on the Bullpen" Michael Wolverton) Glavine went from being on horrible bullpens through the late 80's to a mediocre bullpen through most of the 90's,(the good times with Wholers or Rocker were short lived) to horrible bullpens with the Mets again. I am sure Glavine would have loved to have had Reardon, Rivera, and Lidge in his bullpen.
The notion than Glavine (Maddux) is a by-product of the Braves' success is rediculous. The exact opposite is true. The Braves built their dynasty around Glavine and Smoltz (and Avery for about two years), then Maddux. Madux and Glavine posted a winning % close to .700% from 1993 - 2002. The Braves winning % was far below this. Even with Smoltz on the roster, Maddux and Glavine posted a near unprecidented run of success for two teamates.
And of course Glavine is the only top-notch pitcher to ever get the benefit of umpires calls.:laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh
Finally, no, of course Glavine isn't in the same sphere as Maddux, Clemens, Pedro, or Johnson. Nor will anybody claim he is, but he doesn't have to be to make Cooperstown. There are other cases of the 5th or so best pitcher form one era is in Cooperstown...Jenkins for instance. Yes, I do believe the fifth best starter of one generation can be better than the best of another (Jack Morris).
Even if you are a staunch peripherals person, there is no amount of stat tinkering or cherry-picking that can overturn the long list of accomplishments Glavine has achieved, even if Glavine was the "hit luck" king, and even if Andrew Jones saved him 10 runs a game. :laugh It may be difficult at times to know why a pitcher has been so successful, but just because no final measure has been made to show why he is more successful with less stuff, doesn't mean he wasn't. (even though I can clearly point out HR ratios or XB ratios or anything else that will always fall on def ears) We should all relish the fact that a Glavine has done what he has with less "stuff" than others. This makes his accomplishments even more remarkable.
Glavine should without a doubt be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. (I have him ranked 39th all-time as did BBF in last years top 50 polls.) It is time that all of us Glavine fans unite and supress this silly notion of Glavine not being a Hall of Famer. Where are you all?
Glavine will probably win 300 games or very close to it with a very good .600 W% (.630 since 1991) to boot. Any notion that he is "Suttoning" his way to 300 wins is absurd.
5 20-win seasons (led league all five times)
120 career ERA+ (128 since 1991, 125 since that horrible rookie season)
almost 4,000 innigs pitched (Top 10: 12 times)
Top 10 Games started: 12 times
Top 10 ERA: 8 times
Top 10 ERA+: 9 times
Top 10 wins: 10 times
Top 10 W%: 8 times
Top 10 complete games: 8 times
Top 10 shutouts: 10 times
2 Cy Youngs (top 3 in voting on six occasions)
9 All- Star appearances
Almost 300 Win Shares
Glavine is in the top 30 all-time in RSAA.
Glavine scores a 157 on the HOF monitor, or good for 37th ...and still climbing.
Over the past 15 years, Glavine's ERA+ has been has been under 105 once, and under 118 only three times. 8 times Glavine's ERA+ has been over 130. 5 times over 140.
World Series MVP and career 2.50 World Series ERA.
4 Silver Sluggers
Glavine would have won numerous Gold Gloves if Maddux wasn't around.
IT TOOK A TAXI ACCIDENT TO PUT HIM ON HIS ONLY DL STINT! It takes Kerry Wood a hangnail.
Glavine was the cornerstone of the greatest pitching staff of all-time. Remember, it was Glavine who was the staff ace, two-time 20 game winner, and two-time All-Star Game starter for the first two Braves World Series teams before Maddux was a Brave.
People complain about the 1.30 WHIP (which is still well above normal), but remember, Glavine's XB/9 rate is very low, and is afforded to give up more singles. Especialy when you have one of the greatest double plays induced rates ever (even higher than Maddux, who is much more of a ground ball pitcher and pitched more innings.) Glavine's total bases per 9 innings rate is very good, and his slugging % against is lower than the likes of Schilling, Mussina and many, many others with much superior WHIPs. That .7 HR/9 ratio and a 1.30 WHIP is just as effective as a 1.18 WHIP and a 1.0 HR/9 ratio.
1.5 GB/FO ratio. (Many of those FO are harmless nubbers off of right hander's bats trying to pull a change-up)
By the way, did I mention that Glavine's WHIP is better than everybodies' favorite, Bob Feller? It is also almost as low as Lefty Grove's! (not sayin Glavine is better, just that if you use WHIP as a reason to leave Glavine out of Cooperstown, then Feller shouldn't even sniff your top 10.)
Glavine is very effective at holding runners, preventing hit batsmen, preventing wild pitches, and balks. All of these things add up to a lot of extra bases over the course of a season. If "secondary average" is important for batters like Biggio, than why does nobody talk about the "secondary" ways to keep runners from advancing bases?
I do believe that some pitchers such as Glavine do have some control over where the ball is hit and if an out is produced, and he is also very good at this skill. Despite a few years, which can be easily explained by just leaving the ball over the plate more than normal, Glavines BABIP is very good. In my opinion, this legitimizes his double play rates. If you don't agree with this statement, then I guess Glavine getting 20-30 double plays every year is random luck year...after year...after year...after year...after year...:laugh
I wish I had the stats, but I know for a fact that Glavine's BAA w/ ROB and K w/ROB are far superior to his normal rates. His BAA w/RISP and K w/RISP are superior to that. I know clutch is a dirty word for many, but he "know how to make the right pitches when he needs to." This is a good indication of how Glavine pitches: pitch to contact to avoid high pitch counts (which increases WHIP with little singles), then throw a little harder with more movement with men on base. In 1994, Glavine was one of the NL leaders in strikeouts because he made an effort to do so. There was a problem, he also gave up more extra base hits, because while striking out more batters, he also left the ball around the plate more. In 1995, Glavine intintionaly threw with less velocity and went on to have a great season. Glavine could have had higher K rates if he wanted to, but it would have thrown off his rythm, as it did in 1994.
There are three ways in which a pitcher's team can drasitcaly effect his stats. The team's defense, offense, and bullpen. It has widely been regarded that Glavine has had a lot of support in these areas however...
Glavine's career run support is 102. Only 2% higher than league average. In fact, 102 is lower than the average Hall of Famer.
Glavine has recieved good (not Jim Plamer good) defensive support. His all-time adjusted NRA is 3.82, and his DERA is 3.85. Hardly earth shattering support. by the way, I could list a whole bunch of Hall of Famers with higher DERA than Glavine.
Glavine has the sixth worst bullpen support of any starter with 2000 IP since 1969. ("Banking on the Bullpen" Michael Wolverton) Glavine went from being on horrible bullpens through the late 80's to a mediocre bullpen through most of the 90's,(the good times with Wholers or Rocker were short lived) to horrible bullpens with the Mets again. I am sure Glavine would have loved to have had Reardon, Rivera, and Lidge in his bullpen.
The notion than Glavine (Maddux) is a by-product of the Braves' success is rediculous. The exact opposite is true. The Braves built their dynasty around Glavine and Smoltz (and Avery for about two years), then Maddux. Madux and Glavine posted a winning % close to .700% from 1993 - 2002. The Braves winning % was far below this. Even with Smoltz on the roster, Maddux and Glavine posted a near unprecidented run of success for two teamates.
And of course Glavine is the only top-notch pitcher to ever get the benefit of umpires calls.:laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh
Finally, no, of course Glavine isn't in the same sphere as Maddux, Clemens, Pedro, or Johnson. Nor will anybody claim he is, but he doesn't have to be to make Cooperstown. There are other cases of the 5th or so best pitcher form one era is in Cooperstown...Jenkins for instance. Yes, I do believe the fifth best starter of one generation can be better than the best of another (Jack Morris).
Even if you are a staunch peripherals person, there is no amount of stat tinkering or cherry-picking that can overturn the long list of accomplishments Glavine has achieved, even if Glavine was the "hit luck" king, and even if Andrew Jones saved him 10 runs a game. :laugh It may be difficult at times to know why a pitcher has been so successful, but just because no final measure has been made to show why he is more successful with less stuff, doesn't mean he wasn't. (even though I can clearly point out HR ratios or XB ratios or anything else that will always fall on def ears) We should all relish the fact that a Glavine has done what he has with less "stuff" than others. This makes his accomplishments even more remarkable.
Glavine should without a doubt be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. (I have him ranked 39th all-time as did BBF in last years top 50 polls.) It is time that all of us Glavine fans unite and supress this silly notion of Glavine not being a Hall of Famer. Where are you all?