Will Make HOF vs. Should Make HOF [Archive]

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STLCards2

03-22-2006, 03:04 PM

It will be interesting to see if the people we think will make Cooperstown are the same as the people we think should make Cooperstown. How about the current players in the poll?

I excluded "shoo-ins" as far as the general public is concerned (A. Rodriguez, Griffey, Maddux, Johnson, Clemens, Pedro, Piazza, I. Rodriguez)

I also exluded those under steroid suspicion (Bonds, Sosa, Palmeiro, Sheffield)

I also exluded those with fewer than 10 year experience as of the completion of the 2005 season (Ichiro, Pujols, Santana, Helton, etc.)

I also excluded guys like Rolen, Delgado, Edmonds, etc. in which it is pretty clear they are short at this point in time.

DoubleX

03-22-2006, 03:12 PM

We already have some "Shoulds" on the ballot. I strongly support Gossage, Blyleven, and Trammell, but guys like Belle, Dawson, Murphy, Rice, and Morris also have ardent supporters that they should be in. There are also a number of candidates that have been dropped off the ballot in recent years that have decent arguments for "Should" be in. I'm thinking Ted Simmons, Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, Keith Hernandez, Will Clark, even Willie Randolph in some circles.

As for recently retired players...I think Barry Larkin, Roberto Alomar, and Tim Raines all should make it, but I think all will encounter at least some resistance, and at best, I don't think any of them will have an easier time than Ryne Sandberg had. Fred McGriff is another who's probably a borderline candidate.

Current players are a little more difficult to assess because they are still works in progress. Biggio's status will hinge on whether he gets to 3,000 hits (and the chances are very good). If he makes it, he's a shoe-in, if not, he probably falls back with Larkin and Alomar and might have to wait a few years. I think Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell will both have more trouble getting in than they deserve. Both should be first balloters, but I wouldn't be surprised if it took a couple of elections for them to get in. Tom Glavine is probably in the should category. I'm sure I'm missing lots of guys, but I feel like ending my post. :)

KCGHOST

03-22-2006, 03:29 PM

I voted, but you never know for sure how these will turn out.

538280

03-22-2006, 04:42 PM

I'm calling out two people right now:

KCGHOST, RedSoxVT92

Both of you voted that Bagwell and Thomas will make it, but didn't vote that they should make it, which I assume means you think they aren't deserving of the Hall of Fame. I would like you both to explain that.

NOMAR22

03-22-2006, 05:18 PM

Honus Wagner Rules

03-22-2006, 06:14 PM

Hey, at least Todd Helton is not on the list! :p There is some justice in this world.

Naliamegod

03-22-2006, 06:28 PM

Cursed me for not reading the whole post before reading. :eek:

All the guys I put that "will" also should. And I forgot to fill in Biggio. Sorry!

Ex-Expo fan

03-22-2006, 06:34 PM

STLCards2

03-22-2006, 06:39 PM

After the first 12 voters, I am suprised at how low everybody is getting across the board. Only half feel Jeff Bagwell is deserving? 42% for Rivera? 50% for Ramirez? 50% for Biggio? More voted for Kent than Rivera??? Explanations are welcomed and encouraged. I assume the odd results are due to a small sample size.

NOMAR22

03-22-2006, 08:37 PM

What I would like to know is why Manny Ramirez shouldn't make it? Is it because so posters think he took steroids? The guy has a .314/.409/.599 line with 435 hr's in his career I'd like to know the number of guys who have all of those stats combined who aren't in the Hall of fame. It can't be the fielding can it?:eek:

I would give you a controversial answer. I believe it's because Manny Ramirez is Latino. Im sure more posters actually believe Craig Biggio is more deserving to be in the HOF than Manny Ramirez. Im sure if Manny Ramirez was white he would get more respect, sad but its the truth!

STLCards2

03-22-2006, 08:50 PM

I would give you a controversial answer. I believe it's because Manny Ramirez is Latino. Im sure more posters actually believe Craig Biggio is more deserving to be in the HOF than Manny Ramirez. Im sure if Manny Ramirez was white he would get more respect, sad but its the truth!

Which is why Ramirez is currently outpolling the following:

Hoffman
Schilling
Mussina
Smoltz
Bagwell (the two are equal)
Biggio
Kent
Jones
Thome

In fact the only white person Ramirez is trailing is Tom Glavine. The other person on top of the polls is Frank Thomas.

I don't see any evidence of race bias so far. There are not many rasist members here, so please don't play the race card.

RedSoxVT92

03-22-2006, 09:17 PM

I voted for manny on will make it to hof but forgot to vote for should make it. Manny does not have any steroid suspision, has a .314 average with 435 homers. and this in 13 seasons. He is on pace to hit over 500 homers. So I couldnt see a plausable case against manny except for poor fielding skills. But his offense makes up for it and some.

STLCards2

03-22-2006, 09:38 PM

Considering somebody (leecemark) just put Smoltz as the only player who "should" be elected, along with the other people who already admitted they made mistakes, I would say this poll and its results are completely inacurrate and don't tell us too much about how we are really thinking. Forgive me if I created a confusing poll. Maybe somebody would be interseting in a similar poll that is easier to read.

Mike D.

03-23-2006, 07:52 AM

The borderline guys I voted for in my mind were Kent and Jones. Mussina, Schilling, and Smoltz probably won't make it, although they'll get some consideration.

I voted that Jeter would make it but doesn't deserve it because I'm a Red Sox fan...I try to be objective, but sometimes it doesn't work. I feel I deserve a muligan on that one. :D

Imapotato

03-23-2006, 08:01 AM

I can't believe so little for Schilling

bloody sock, D-backs and Red Sox to a WS win

and good stats to boot in those years

That is a Hall of 'FAME' career

Sometimes its right time right place

Mike D.

03-23-2006, 08:08 AM

I can't believe so little for Schilling

bloody sock, D-backs and Red Sox to a WS win

and good stats to boot in those years

That is a Hall of 'FAME' career

Sometimes its right time right place

He's part of the next tier, with guys like Brown, Smoltz, Wells, and Mussina.

Some of these guys might make it, but none can be considered sure things.

Schilling still has less than 200 career wins, and his 3.40 career ERA is nice, but well below all the top tier guys except Glavine, who has about 80 more career wins at a higher percentage.

He really didn't put it all together until his mid 30's...all of his 20 win seasons and most of his hardware and heroics came after his 33rd birthday.

His Jamesian metrics point towards someone who might get in, though...so while he's not a sure-fire HOF, he's got a shot. Time will tell, and what he does in the next season or two could push him over the top or drop him out of contention.

abacab

03-23-2006, 08:33 AM

digglahhh

03-23-2006, 08:40 AM

There are a couple of guys who I think will make it, but I didn't say "should"

Schilling
Hoffman

I wouldn't have a problem with either making it, I just wouldn't vote for them.

Also, Jeff Kent, I don't think he'll make it and I wouldn't vote for him, but I wouldn't cringe at his election either.

I voted yes on both accounts for Smoltz, but I think he'll have a difficult time, his election could go either way, but I would support him.

Finally, one more thing regarding Hoffman. I could live with no closers in the Hall, even Mariano. I would vote for Mo, though. In one sense, I would be angry if he didn't make it, because he is better than Sutter, but seing as how a closerless Hall wouldn't bother me, I wouldn't care if there was no Mo, in that sense. IOW, it would be inconsistent, but not unforgivable, IMO.

Mike D.

03-23-2006, 09:02 AM

I voted yes on both accounts for Smoltz, but I think he'll have a difficult time, his election could go either way, but I would support him.

An interesting case, for sure...less than 200 wins, but a respectable 3.26 ERA and a Cy Young award. The three seasons as a dominant closer (which probably cost him his shot at 200 career wins) will help, too.

Going to be interesting how history (and the voters) judge Smoltz.

Imapotato

03-23-2006, 09:58 AM

So you think the Hall of Fame is for the most famous players, instead of the best?

I think since his exodus from Philly, he has been one of the best

But if anyone doesn't think Schill WILL make is fooling themselves

digglahhh

03-23-2006, 10:13 AM

You know Schilling has only pitched about 400 more innings in his career than Pedro? That's crazy!

I think he is sometimes underaprreciated but in the quality to quantity approach he may fall a little short, IMO. He does have all the peripherals though, the post season heroics, the "big game pitcher" rep, the intimidation factor, the outspoken personality...

Again, I think he'll make it, and I'm okay with that, I'm okay either way. I give him the best chance of the second tier. I think his chances are slightly better than Smoltz, though he is slightly less deserving, IMO, but better than Brown, Mussina, Wells, etc.

STLCards2

03-23-2006, 10:29 AM

Based on the people who already told me they only voted "will" when they also wanted "should", the leading candatates...Bagwell, Thomas, Ramirez, Glavine, Biggio, Rivera...should all have about 5 or so more "should" votes than they do. These are just the people who admitted their mistake. This is why this poll is so screwed up right now. Nobody should pay much attention to the results.

538280

03-23-2006, 01:28 PM

I hate Curt Schilling, can't stand him. He is a huge repulican backer, gets me mad every time I see him on TV.

But, the guy is a great pitcher, and HOF worthy. I thinik people need to take modern pitching numbers in better context than they do. Schilling's 2906 innings pitched looks low, but in this era he has been a workhorse. This is the era where you can lead the league with 220 or so innings. That needs to be taken into context.

Total value metrics like Win Shares have that problem with pitchers. Of course Cy Young will come up with season by season WS totals much higher than Roger Clemens, because he's pitching about twice as many innings. But, that is because of the era.

A good way to take that into context is looking at league leading performance. I'm not a big fan of ink tests (especially for position players) but they do do an okay job putting a player's performance in context. Schilling has 40 Black Ink, which is the level of the average HOFer, and 192 Gray Ink (the average HOFer is at 185).

That makes him a solid middle of the road HOFer. Good for me.

Edgartohof

03-23-2006, 01:43 PM

I would give you a controversial answer. I believe it's because Manny Ramirez is Latino. Im sure more posters actually believe Craig Biggio is more deserving to be in the HOF than Manny Ramirez. Im sure if Manny Ramirez was white he would get more respect, sad but its the truth!

You have got to be kidding me right? No, that's not the truth, most people here couldn't care less if he was latino or not - there are a few, but very few. I will say this - barring a "Rose-esque" incident, he WILL make the Hall, as he SHOULD. As has already been mentioned, the numbers are majorly skewed already, as people made mistakes on the poll, so if you are saying this based off the poll, then you really need to evaluate what you are saying here, as this can be considered a direct affront to people.

538280

03-23-2006, 01:45 PM

You have got to be kidding me right? No, that's not the truth, most people here couldn't care less if he was latino or not - there are a few, but very few. I will say this - barring a "Rose-esque" incident, he WILL make the Hall, as he SHOULD. As has already been mentioned, the numbers are majorly skewed already, as people made mistakes on the poll, so if you are saying this based off the poll, then you really need to evaluate what you are saying here, as this can be considered a direct affront to people.

I absolutely, 100% agree with you. I do think race can play a bigger part in the HOF, MVP voting, and the public's perceptions that some people think though (Bonds).

Anyway, Craig Biggio is a better player than Manny Ramirez, and I like Manny. But Craig is simply better.

digglahhh

03-23-2006, 01:56 PM

Chris Schilling is a workhorse...when healthy.

That was kind of the point of my post. Pedro Martinez, who is labeled as fragile became a starter in 1994. He has pitched about 2400 innings since then. Schilling became a starter in 92, full time in 93. From '94 on, Schilling has pitched 100 less innings than Pedro. If Pedro is "fragile," Schilling is made of glass.

Pedro may have had the workloads of a healthy Schilling, but he made his 30 starts just about every year.

Basically, I think that even if they were of equal quality, and certainly they are not even close, Schilling's type of fragilitiy is worse that Pedro's, at least from a career standpoint.

digglahhh

03-23-2006, 02:05 PM

Anyway, Craig Biggio is a better player than Manny Ramirez, and I like Manny. But Craig is simply better.

Apples and oranges, by friend. They are so different. This is a legit problem with Win Shares (although to you it might be a feat of the system), the ability to directly compare two players who are as different as Craig Biggio and Manny Ramirez. I'm actually a big fan of both of thes guys.

In a sense, players like these two, Manny one-dimensional but dominant like few ever, and Biggio as Pete Rose-esque, sneaky value, versatile hitter and fielder who can't really dominate a game on his own, thrive as a function of their environment.

Biggio types are made more valuable when paired with a Manny type and thus not required to be the number one force, and to help his team in a variety of ways. Manny types are most valuable when they have Biggio types, guys who can pick up the slack in the incomplete parts of Manny's game. These two players are very different, both great, and most of all, symbiotic.

Think about Jeter too, how would his stock fall if he was in a situation where he had to be "the guy."

538280

03-23-2006, 02:22 PM

Apples and oranges, by friend. They are so different. This is a legit problem with Win Shares (although to you it might be a feat of the system), the ability to directly compare two players who are as different as Craig Biggio and Manny Ramirez. I'm actually a big fan of both of thes guys.

In a sense, players like these two, Manny one-dimensional but dominant like few ever, and Biggio as Pete Rose-esque, sneaky value, versatile hitter and fielder who can't really dominate a game on his own, thrive as a function of their environment.

Biggio types are made more valuable when paired with a Manny type and thus not required to be the number one force, and to help his team in a variety of ways. Manny types are most valuable when they have Biggio types, guys who can pick up the slack in the incomplete parts of Manny's game. These two players are very different, both great, and most of all, symbiotic.

Think about Jeter too, how would his stock fall if he was in a situation where he had to be "the guy."

I don't really understand this. If Biggio posted the same exact numbers, but didn't have Bagwell on his team with him, how would his value go down?

And while Manny has certainly been a dominant player, he hasn't been as dominant as he's made out to be. He has 21 Black Ink, which is a good total for someone in this stage of his career, but not really that great. He'll probably end up right around the HOF average of 27 for his career. Biggio has 17 black ink. Lower than Manny, but he's a second baseman. If we judged black ink by league leaderships vs. others at the position, I'd bet Biggio would have more than Manny.

csh19792001

03-23-2006, 09:52 PM

Total value metrics like Win Shares have that problem with pitchers. Of course Cy Young will come up with season by season WS totals much higher than Roger Clemens, because he's pitching about twice as many innings. But, that is because of the era.

A good way to take that into context is looking at league leading performance. I'm not a big fan of ink tests (especially for position players) but they do do an okay job putting a player's performance in context. .

Of course Young will come out far, far ahead in Win Shares, but it's funny that you bring up ink tests as a good way to take the context into account (looking at consistency and league leads).

Cy Young is far, FAR and away the alltime leader in grey ink, and that includes guys who pitched under the same conditions he did, and those who did not.

And despite pitching in a league replete with syndicate owners who stocked their "good team" with all of the talent, drastically inflating the pitching records/totals of the pitching squads on the loaded teams, Young is also 5th alltime in black ink (tied with Clemens, believe it or not).

I agree the ink tests are arbitrary and slipshod, but they do a decent job at providing a rough stretch of a player in comparison to his peers.

digglahhh

03-23-2006, 10:34 PM

I don't really understand this. If Biggio posted the same exact numbers, but didn't have Bagwell on his team with him, how would his value go down?

And while Manny has certainly been a dominant player, he hasn't been as dominant as he's made out to be. He has 21 Black Ink, which is a good total for someone in this stage of his career, but not really that great. He'll probably end up right around the HOF average of 27 for his career. Biggio has 17 black ink. Lower than Manny, but he's a second baseman. If we judged black ink by league leaderships vs. others at the position, I'd bet Biggio would have more than Manny.

Yeah and if we judged by most G's in your last name he would win at that too. Let's not lose the tree in the woods here.

Perhaps value was a bad choice of wording on my part. What I meant was that these two types of players compliment eachother very well. One is a dominant offensive force and lacking in the other areas of the game. The other is talented overall and versatile on both sides of the ball, but not a legendary talent at any singe aspect of the game. They compliment eachother and compensate for eachother.

ElHalo

03-23-2006, 10:48 PM

I absolutely, 100% agree with you. I do think race can play a bigger part in the HOF, MVP voting, and the public's perceptions that some people think though (Bonds).

This is absolutely ludicrous. What do you think the ratio is of guys who don't like Barry because of his race v. guys who don't like Barry because he's a jackass? 1 to 5000?

leecemark

03-23-2006, 10:51 PM

ElHalo

03-23-2006, 11:19 PM

--To clarify my ballot. Everybody for whom I voted "will make" I also think "should make". Smoltz was the only guy I think "should", but am not sure he will. A few who I didn't vote for in either category I also think still can still get over the hump with a little more on their resume.

You don't think the Hall is going to make any mistakes? In my opinion, I'm certain Glavine will make the Hall, even though I'm not entirely certain he should... and I think Schilling's got a better than even chance, even though I don't think he should at all.

NOMAR22

03-23-2006, 11:32 PM

I absolutely, 100% agree with you. I do think race can play a bigger part in the HOF, MVP voting, and the public's perceptions that some people think though (Bonds).

Anyway, Craig Biggio is a better player than Manny Ramirez, and I like Manny. But Craig is simply better.

lol, that is funny Craig Biggio better than Manny Ramirez , that was a nice joke.

Honus Wagner Rules

03-23-2006, 11:52 PM

You don't think the Hall is going to make any mistakes? In my opinion, I'm certain Glavine will make the Hall, even though I'm not entirely certain he should... and I think Schilling's got a better than even chance, even though I don't think he should at all.

As bad as Chick Hafey?

john1972

03-25-2006, 05:11 PM

NOMAR22 Quote:
Originally Posted by 538280
I absolutely, 100% agree with you. I do think race can play a bigger part in the HOF, MVP voting, and the public's perceptions that some people think though (Bonds).

Anyway, Craig Biggio is a better player than Manny Ramirez, and I like Manny. But Craig is simply better.

lol, that is funny Craig Biggio better than Manny Ramirez , that was a nice joke.

Most people on this board have a tendency to grossly overrate the old, dogged veteran Biggio. Most would even go so far as to claim he was superior to Alomar when in their primes. It's amazing how misguided people become when believing they grasp the art of objectively evaluating a player based on statistical evidence. Truly amazing. I propose 4 out of 5 managers would have chosen Alomar over Biggio to play on their team back in the day, but sadly this means very little to statisticians.

ElHalo

03-25-2006, 06:14 PM

As bad as Chick Hafey?

I think I've said all I need to on Chick Hafey. The facts are pretty clear; you can either agree with my opinion on them, or you can disagree. Neither position is unreasonable.

cavalier1968

03-26-2006, 12:14 AM

Please give me some reasons not to put him in?

CAv

ElHalo

03-26-2006, 02:31 AM

Please give me some reasons not to put him in?

CAv

Unless you've got a blanket policy against selecting any relief pitchers (something which you can make somewhat valid arguments for), there's no way on Earth that you can argue against putting Rivera in and sound in the least bit sane.

STLCards2

03-26-2006, 06:48 PM

Unless you've got a blanket policy against selecting any relief pitchers (something which you can make somewhat valid arguments for), there's no way on Earth that you can argue against putting Rivera in and sound in the least bit sane.

Remember, the poll is very skewed. The top candidates should have recieved 5-6 more votes than they have, based upon those who admitted making mistakes. Rivera, Thomas, Biggio, Bagwell, Glavine, Ramirez, Jeter. many people said they put "will" and not "should" when they wanted both in reality. Rivera's actual support is much higher than the poll shows. and I agree the people who did not suport him (as well as the other 6 I have mentioned here) have some explaining to do.

cavalier1968

03-26-2006, 08:22 PM

Half the poll says Rivera should not make it? Please speak up now.....

CAv

Sockeye

03-27-2006, 09:29 PM

Curt Schiling: Great pitcher, underrated for most of his career until 01. Not sure his overall numbers are HOF caliber.

Mariano Rivera: Never been a Rivera fan. Dominating stuff. Save totals inflated due to Yankees dynasty. One of the top 2-3 closers on his era. He'll make the HOF.

Tom Glavine: 275 wins is the 3rd best total of his era (Clemens, Maddux) Still has an outside shot of reaching 300 wins with 2 more solid seasons. He'll be in the HOF.

Mike Mussina: Never a 20 game winner amd started declining at a fairly young age. Needs to pitcher another 3-4 years with another 40-50 wins to deserve serious consideration.

John Smoltz: Should end up with over 200 career wins and 150+ saves. One of the best big game pitchers in baseball history. If Eckersly is HOF material than so is Smoltzie.

Trevor Hoffman: May break the all time saves record. I think that will warrent his induction.

Jeff Bagwell: 449 home runs, 1500+ runs, 1500+ RBI's, 200+ stolen bases, .297 AVG, .408 OBP, .540 SLG. Those numbers are better than half the players in the HOF. He's a 1st ballot HOFer.

Craig Biggio: Closing in on 3000 hits, while playing most of his career 2B. Also spending seasons at catcher and centerfield. Just goes to show what a versitile player he has been. 260 home runs, over 400 stolen bases. One of the top 3 2B's of his era. Would have a hard time imagining him not getting in the HOF.

Frank Thomas: The best 1B of the 90's. 448 homers, .307+ AVG, .427+ OBP, .568 SLG. Should reach 1500 RBI's this season. He's a 1st ballot HOFer if you ask me.

Jeff Kent: .289 AVG, 331 HR's, 2070 hits, 1139 runs, 1312 RBI's, overall not really what I consider to be HOF caliber numbers. The fact that he is a 2B will helps his chances. I'd vote no but who knows with the writers.

Chipper Jones: If he retired right now at the age of 33 then no he wouldn't get it. Give him another 2-3 seasons and he will be a lock as a 1st ballot HOFer.

Manny Ramirez: At the age of 33 he already has HOF caliber numbers. By the time he retires in 5-7 years he should be around 600 homers and 2000 RBI's.

Derek Jeter: 1936 hits at the age of just 31. 3000 hits are well within reach. 3500+ hits are possible. He'll be a 1st ballot HOFer.

Vlad Guerrero: 1586 hits, 305 HR's, 936 RBI's, 151 SB's, .324 AVG, .391 OBP, .587 SLG all before the age of 30.

Jim Thome: One of the more underrated players. 430 home runs at the age of 34. Should reach 500+ home runs before he retires. If he does he'll be a 1st ballot HOFer.

Bernie Williams: Good numbers, not sensational numbers. If he makes the HOF it'll lie in the fact that he played for the yankees dynasty. I don't think he should make it.

Omar Vizquel: When I think of Vizquel I don't think of the HOF. Extremely similar numbers to Ozzie Smith though so I guess you could make the case if the wizard is in then Omar should be too.

One question....Where is Mike Piazza on this list?

Captain Cold Nose

03-28-2006, 06:00 AM

Half the poll says Rivera should not make it? Please speak up now.....

CAv
The poll does not have a negative in it. Either they will or they should. Some voted for the former without voting for the latter.

538280

03-28-2006, 06:16 AM

The poll does not have a negative in it. Either they will or they should. Some voted for the former without voting for the latter.

But that's the whole point of the poll. If they vote for the former and not the latter, that would say that they believe the player will be elected, but they personally don't think they should.

That would seem to indicate half of the poll does not think Mariano Rivera is a HOF caliber relief pitcher, and I agree with Cavalier that that does merit and explantion.

The big one to me though is Frank Thomas. 45% of BBF members don't think he's a HOFer? I want that 45% to really speak up.

Captain Cold Nose

03-28-2006, 06:24 AM

But that's the whole point of the poll. If they vote for the former and not the latter, that would say that they believe the player will be elected, but they personally don't think they should.

That would seem to indicate half of the poll does not think Mariano Rivera is a HOF caliber relief pitcher, and I agree with Cavalier that that does merit and explantion.

The big one to me though is Frank Thomas. 45% of BBF members don't think he's a HOFer? I want that 45% to really speak up.
Have you even read STLCards2's explanation behind that? That's all I'm going to say.

STLCards2

03-29-2006, 06:25 PM

Have you even read STLCards2's explanation behind that? That's all I'm going to say.

The point of the poll was to simply see if the players we feel should make Cooperstown are the same players we think will make Cooperstown. As I have admitted, I did not explain this very well, which is where the confusion comes from.