Surprising Cubs predictions

[Ubiquitous]

Heading into this season I initially thought this team doomed to mediocrity and the moves they made doing very little for their cause. One of the titles to a thread here caught my attention and I thought it was about the team. It turned out it wasn't so I decided to do a new thread. So here is my prediction for next year, but to do that one must first look back at the year before and the changes to it.

It turns out that several spots in the lineup were just sinkholes. Now I know that isn't a shocker but I never realized how bad they were, and it also shows how little the Cubs have to do to improve even a little for this year. Meaning it doesn't the acquisition of Alex Rodriguez to improve upon a .307 OBP and .369 SLG. Simply getting a guy with a .330 OBP and .380 SLG would improve a spot tremendously. So there is reason for a good burst of offense even if some players decline from highs. AAAAAAAAAAAArgh!

Got half way through my position by position recap and prediction when I accidently hit a delete button and lost most of it. Don't even feel like retyping it all.

So heres a quick summary of what I think each position will do next year. Position-OBP/SLG
Catcher: .320/.450
1B: .380/.550
2B: .330/.420
3B: .355/.550
SS: .320/.385
LF: .340/.450
CF: .340/.385
RF: .320/.425
PH: .300/.350

Anyway last year the Cubs were absolutely horrible in CF, SS, and PH, and to some degree Right Field. This year with the transactions I think the Cubs will improve in all three and possibly stay the same in right field. The Cubs should lose ground at first and second, while slightly slipping at C, and either maintain or improve at third.

Last year the team scored 703 runs, runs created says they should have scored around 780 runs. Part of the gap in runs and rc I think has to do with lineup construction and some severe black holes, with this prediction I think they should score about 820 runs but if we compensate for some Dustyism to seep into the lineup I would say that we should expect around 760 to 780 runs for this offense. I think one should expect a nice bounce back for this offense compared to last year.

So what about the pitching and defense? Lets get the defense out of the way first. I would say that the defense is going to be about the same or perhaps slightly better. So that leaves the pitching, last year they allowed 714 runs to score, 671 earned. RC says that they should have allowed 691 runs to score, DIPS says 680 runs allowed. I would say that the Cubs are going to allow about 700 to 720 runs this year. Even with some question marks this isn't a staff that is likely to be bad, and it does have the possibility of being very good.

So to sum it up I think the offense will score 760 to 780 runs with an outside chance of scoring over 800 runs. I think the pitching staff will allow 700 to 720 runs with a better chance to allow less then 700 then offense has to score more then 800. Best case scenario is 780-700, worst case 760-720. Using the pyth that puts the cubs wins between 85 to 89 wins. I personally think think the Cubs will do around the 780-700 mark and through a little luck hit the 90-91 win mark. Thats the hopeful side of me, the number cruncher in me sees around a 88-90 win season.

Of course who knows what will happen during the season, injuries, trades, playing some players, not playing others, and so on. If Todd Walker gets traded for a bag of baseballs and they hand second base to Neifi I would lower the expect to wins down a good deal.

So what do you think? How many wins do you think the Cubs will have.

[burger eater]

I predict Dusty will fall in love with Neifi all over again. Dusty will get Grissom his at-bats...
Dusty will make Hairston shine his shoes to earn playing time.

CF - Pierre
2B - Hairston/Neifi
1B - Lee
3B - Aramis
who knows what Dusty will do after these 4 spots?
Some order of:
Grissom/Murton
Barrett
Jacque
Cedeno
pitcher
5-8 will probably change on a daily basis. Jacque will probably get some AB's at cleanup.

Walker will be traded. Neifi will get plenty of time at SS and get the rest at 2B. Hairston will get time at 2B except for days that Dusty wants Neifi in the lineup. Cedeno & Hairston won't be seen manning the middle infield at the same time very often.
Grissom will get a few days in RF to rest Jacque... probably against righties. Grissom will get many starts in LF to "protect" Murton against whoever Dusty deems to be a good pitcher.
The Cubs will have a 5 game winning streak sometime during the season, causing the organization to give Dusty a contract extension.

[Ubiquitous]

I should say that I don't expect the run drop from expectation to be all Dusty only that the way this team is put together I think it will underperform its RC again this year, some of that is the style of hitters and some of it is Dusty.
Dusty's teams tend to underperform according to their Run Created numbers. His teams and style tend to not reach what RC expects out of those numbers.

Even if we look at BP's EqR his teams in recent years underperform by about 20 runs or so.

[GaryL]

Boy...you're optimistic! I see marginal improvement over last year, especially if they're counting on Wood again to be a major contributor, which, apparently, they are.

I predict Wood on the DL by mid-May. Not much depth at starting pitching after Prior and Z.

Put me down for about 80-82 wins at most, fighting it out for fourth with Pittsburg. Hopefully that will be enough to launch Dusty, and maybe even take Hendry with him.

Now if we can just get rid of Andy (the clown) MacPhail and the Tribune! We need a real owner - a person - not some corporate entity.

[Ubiquitous]

Thats the pitching side but what about the hitting. It won't take much for this team to score more runs this year.

[Ubiquitous]

Well I think I can safely throw this projection out now, what with Prior heading to the doc. How did a once promising and perhaps best young pitching staff fall so fast and so quickly without anyone doing anything about it?

Defend the Clement-Willis trade all you want but its looking like one of the worst trades more and more.

As for Prior kind of makes you wish Pohlad wasn't such a cheap-wad doesn't it? Could have had Teixiera if the Twins had drafted Prior instead. Then perhaps Hendry think he has extra arms to trade away.

[redwhitenblue]

Well I think I can safely throw this projection out now, what with Prior heading to the doc. How did a once promising and perhaps best young pitching staff fall so fast and so quickly without anyone doing anything about it?

Defend the Clement-Willis trade all you want but its looking like one of the worst trades more and more.

As for Prior kind of makes you wish Pohlad wasn't such a cheap-wad doesn't it? Could have had Teixiera if the Twins had drafted Prior instead. Then perhaps Hendry think he has extra arms to trade away.
i agree-let's never trade minor leaguers again in fear that they may turn out to be good someday-whether it be immediately or years later

we don't know what is wrong so let's not jump to the conclusion he's out for any significant time automatically

[Cubsfan97]

What if a team offers you a minor leaguer for a minor leaguer, you reject and the offered minor hits 30 home runs the next ten years or win the 3 Cy Youngs? Also, who which would you rather have, Teixera, with no Prior and possibly no 2003 or Prior with on/off injuries, D-Lee and a 2003?

[KCGHOST]

The year is not shaping up well for the Cubbies, but it is Spring, and Hope springs eternal. You never can tell when a team will catch lightning in a bottle.

[Uncle Dak]

I predict Dusty will fall in love with Neifi all over again. Dusty will get Grissom his at-bats...
Dusty will make Hairston shine his shoes to earn playing time.

CF - Pierre
2B - Hairston/Neifi
1B - Lee
3B - Aramis
who knows what Dusty will do after these 4 spots?
Some order of:
Grissom/Murton
Barrett
Jacque
Cedeno
pitcher
5-8 will probably change on a daily basis. Jacque will probably get some AB's at cleanup.

Walker will be traded. Neifi will get plenty of time at SS and get the rest at 2B. Hairston will get time at 2B except for days that Dusty wants Neifi in the lineup. Cedeno & Hairston won't be seen manning the middle infield at the same time very often.
Grissom will get a few days in RF to rest Jacque... probably against righties. Grissom will get many starts in LF to "protect" Murton against whoever Dusty deems to be a good pitcher.
The Cubs will have a 5 game winning streak sometime during the season, causing the organization to give Dusty a contract extension.

I remain somewhat optimistic that this year is the end for Baker and Hendry Show.

[Ubiquitous]

i agree-let's never trade minor leaguers again in fear that they may turn out to be good someday-whether it be immediately or years later

we don't know what is wrong so let's not jump to the conclusion he's out for any significant time automatically

It has nothing to do with fear. It was a stupid trade at the time. They gave away a quality arm for Antonio Alfonseca who isn't worth a quality arm. Cubs trade Willis for say Beltran and it doesn't work out, I would say "hey thats the breaks, we tried to get a good player he didn't play to that level and Willis, oh well" But that wasn't what happened here, Antonion was a known product, a mediocre product, and the cubs traded value to get him.

[Ubiquitous]

What if a team offers you a minor leaguer for a minor leaguer, you reject and the offered minor hits 30 home runs the next ten years or win the 3 Cy Youngs? Also, who which would you rather have, Teixera, with no Prior and possibly no 2003 or Prior with on/off injuries, D-Lee and a 2003?


I perfer Teixiera, Willis, and DLee. Teixiera was a third basemen, the Rangers moved him because they had Blalock ahead of him.

[redwhitenblue]

It has nothing to do with fear. It was a stupid trade at the time. They gave away a quality arm for Antonio Alfonseca who isn't worth a quality arm. Cubs trade Willis for say Beltran and it doesn't work out, I would say "hey thats the breaks, we tried to get a good player he didn't play to that level and Willis, oh well" But that wasn't what happened here, Antonion was a known product, a mediocre product, and the cubs traded value to get him.
willis wasn't a quality arm at that time, and we trade for alfonseca AND clement, dont' act like we only got alf out of it

don't act like you knew who willis was at the time bc very few KNEW of him and NOONE knew that he would go through the ranks so quickly, he wasn't even a prized arm at that time

[redwhitenblue]

I perfer Teixiera, Willis, and DLee. Teixiera was a third basemen, the Rangers moved him because they had Blalock ahead of him.
oh please-this is a 100% bias on what you know will happen...again if i asked you in 2003 who you'd rather have you wouldn't know either way bc none of them were really big names...you say this all now but if we gave you the info before
Prior-college ace-supposedly best mechanics around-everyone knew he'd be to the big league soon

Willis-funky windup(commonly associated with injury risk)-high risk to lose command-unknown possibilities

and you tell me honestly you'd take willis then?...if so then you would have a pitching staff of one ace and 4 guys like him that never have any success and are always injured

[Ubiquitous]

willis wasn't a quality arm at that time, and we trade for alfonseca AND clement, dont' act like we only got alf out of it

don't act like you knew who willis was at the time bc very few KNEW of him and NOONE knew that he would go through the ranks so quickly, he wasn't even a prized arm at that time


Yes Willis was a quality arm, and it doesn't matter whether or not Willis ever did become a quality major leaguer. I was against this trade from the beginning even when I didn't know who Willis was or what he would become. The Cubs did not need and I did not want Antonio Alfonseca on the Cubs team and closing games for them. We got Clement but if you want to say you can't judge Willis by what he would do later then you can't judge Clement by what he did later. Clement was basically a throw in or forced on the Cubs. You want Alfonseca then you have to take Clement who was arb-eligible. The cubs did not think highly of Clement, they thought at best he would be a 5th starter and would definitely be a project. Nor was it like Clement was some great pitcher, he was good but he wasn't worth Willis.

[Ubiquitous]

oh please-this is a 100% bias on what you know will happen...again if i asked you in 2003 who you'd rather have you wouldn't know either way bc none of them were really big names...you say this all now but if we gave you the info before
Prior-college ace-supposedly best mechanics around-everyone knew he'd be to the big league soon

Willis-funky windup(commonly associated with injury risk)-high risk to lose command-unknown possibilities

and you tell me honestly you'd take willis then?...if so then you would have a pitching staff of one ace and 4 guys like him that never have any success and are always injured


Apparently you didn't read what I said. I said:
As for Prior kind of makes you wish Pohlad wasn't such a cheap-wad doesn't it? Could have had Teixiera if the Twins had drafted Prior instead. Then perhaps Hendry think he has extra arms to trade away.

"Kind of makes you wish" That isn't me saying I always believed they shouldn't have had drafted Prior. Its me saying looking back on it now I wish they had drafted Mark T instead of Mark P.

If I did choose Willis then I would have Zambrano, Willis, Maddux, Wood, and insert name. Out of that rotation I would have only Wood as an injured pitcher. It isn't as simple as well he has a funky delivery therefore he is an injury risk. A different delivery doesn't mean he has poor mechanics.

[Bob Sacamento]

willis wasn't a quality arm at that time, and we trade for alfonseca AND clement, dont' act like we only got alf out of it

don't act like you knew who willis was at the time bc very few KNEW of him and NOONE knew that he would go through the ranks so quickly, he wasn't even a prized arm at that time
I knew of Willis, and if he was with the Cubs he wouldn't have flown through our system and been in the majors in 2003 no matter how great his minor league numbers were. But he would have been a player for the 2004 rotation. Before the Cubs traded Willis, in the 2002 offseason, he was considered one of our Top 10 arms, actually ranked number 8, after his 2001 season.

Sure his windup was funky but he never had injury problems and was a marksman with his location.

Concerning the Willis to Marlins deal, Alf was the player we were targeting, the Marlins forced Clement in the deal in order for them to free up more money and take lesser prospects in return. Instead of giving up our #8 pitching prospect in Willis, FLA was wanting a Sisco-others for Alfonseca. But with Chicago willing to take on an additional 4 million of Clement's 2003 salary, the request was altered for a lesser pitching prospect.


As for Prior kind of makes you wish Pohlad wasn't such a cheap-wad doesn't it? Could have had Teixiera if the Twins had drafted Prior instead. Then perhaps Hendry think he has extra arms to trade away. Even if the Twins would have drafted Prior, Chicago's target was Joe Mauer not Teixiera. Hendry is on record saying he's glad he didn't have the top choice in the 2003 draft, because he couldn't decide between Prior and Mauer.

[redwhitenblue]

?...i didn't post that

meanwhile-the twins are still waiting for mauer to break out

[Bob Sacamento]

?...i didn't post that

meanwhile-the twins are still waiting for mauer to break out
Whatchya talkin' about Willis?? He had a real good first full season in 2005, especially for a catcher:

In 131 games was 144 for 489 with 61 runs, 26 doubles, 2 triples, 9 hrs, 55 rbi, 13/14 sb, 61 bb, 64 k, .294 avg, .372 obp, .411 slg, .783 ops


Barrett 2005:

In 133 games, was 117 for 424 with 48 runs, 32 doubles, 3 triples, 16 hrs, 61 rbi, 0/3 sb, 40 bb, 61 k, .276 avg, .345 obp, .479 slg, .824 ops. And Mike is considered one of the best offensive catchers in the game today...

[Ubiquitous]

Joe Mauer is a 23 year old catcher who had a .294/.372/.411 line. He's a catcher not a firstbasemen. Barrett had this line .276/.345/.479. Barret had the better SLG but Mauer had the higher batting average and OBP. Mauer was better defensively as well. If they are waiting for Mauer to break out then the Cubs are waiting for Barrett to break out as well. Last year Joe Mauer was either the second or third best catcher in the game. Victor Martinez was first followed by either Varitek or Mauer, it all depends on how much you want to factor in Fenway.

[GaryL]

Defend the Clement-Willis trade all you want but its looking like one of the worst trades more and more.

Boy...I couldn't agree more and I've been saying so ever since the deal was made, and I'm glad to see others are starting to say the same thing. The first time I saw him pitch (as a Marlin, of course), I couldn't believe that Hendry let him get away. A big, tall, hard-throwing lefty with a funky motion and excellent control...most good baseball fans would take one look at him and realize this guy had huge potential.

For some unknown reason, Hendry has gotten a huge free pass on this disasterous trade. Isn't that his job - the reason he's paid the big bucks - to be a good evaluator of talent?

Some people are saying that it's not Hendry's fault because no one knew Willis would be that good. By that measuring stick, you can't even critize the Lou Brock trade, because at the time of the trade "no one knew Brock would be that good," either! Again, that's their job...to evaluate talent!

My earlier prediction for the Cubs in this thread was 80-82 games (see above). That was made before Wood had his knee surgery and Prior with this latest problem, so I'd like to officially lower that to 70-75 games, fighting it out with Pittsburg for fifth. Milwaukee finished ahead of the Cubs last year and they've significantly improved. Even Pittsburg is said to be better.

[Uncle Dak]

My earlier prediction for the Cubs in this thread was 80-82 games (see above). That was made before Wood had his knee surgery and Prior with this latest problem, so I'd like to officially lower that to 70-75 games, fighting it out with Pittsburg for fifth. Milwaukee finished ahead of the Cubs last year and they've significantly improved. Even Pittsburg is said to be better.

Exactly. I'm worried that given a chance, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee with good young talent throughout, will bury the Cubs in the Central. Oliver Perez and Zack Duke are looking pretty good right now.

[ndistops]

The year is not shaping up well for the Cubbies, but it is Spring, and Hope springs eternal. You never can tell when a team will catch lightning in a bottle.
Remember, the White Sox had about 10 guys have career years last year. It can happen to anyone. I'm not saying it will happen to us because it almost certainly won't - but the 05 White Sox are proof positive that just about any group of guys can do it if you play hard and catch some breaks.

[Ubiquitous]

I think it takes more then just a few breaks. Their pitching staff was very very good to them and without them all the breaks in the world don't bring home the championship.

[GaryL]

Boy...you're optimistic! I see marginal improvement over last year, especially if they're counting on Wood again to be a major contributor, which, apparently, they are.

I predict Wood on the DL by mid-May. Not much depth at starting pitching after Prior and Z.

Looks like my original predicition of Wood to the DL by May 15th was grossly overly optimistic!

[redwhitenblue]

you're paranoid, we ALL knew kerry was going to have time on the DL going into the season, since ohh, iuno, September when he had surgery

get over yourself

[TRIPxCORE]

I think it takes more then just a few breaks. Their pitching staff was very very good to them and without them all the breaks in the world don't bring home the championship.


The White Sox have to be one of luckiest teams I can remember in recent history. It's nobodies fault mind you, but the Sox caught just about every break a team could hope for last year. Meanwhile our Cubbies keep catching all the bad breaks. I think we take on enough of them for 5 teams. No curse you say? :crazy

[Ubiquitous]

They went 11-1 in the playoffs and even if you strike some of those wins based on some calls they still go something like 11-3 in the playoffs.

They went 63-24 in the first half, and they were not close games.
The pitching while having a good year wasn't really playing over there head by all that much.

In terms of lucky teams that would be the 2003 Chicago Cubs who went into the playoffs with 88 wins, and needed a Houston team to collapse at the end of the season and against a dreadful last place team who was even playing more poorly then normal.

[Ubiquitous]

Well originally I said the Cubs would go about 760 tp 780 runs scored and 700 to 720 runs allowed. Right now they are on pace for 578 runs scored and 806 runs allowed. I don't think the Cubs will keep up this pace though and I would say that the cubs will end up being at 700 runs scored and about 740 to 750 runs allowed which would put them at slightly above .500 the rest of the way out which unfortunately means that at best they will finish with a .500 season.

Position by Position
C: .231/.307/.381
Right now Blanco is just killing this position when he plays and with Barret getting a suspension soon I doubt it is going to get better soon. The silver lining in this is that there really is no way Blanco can be this bad throughout the entire season or I should say there is no way the Cubs can sit on their hands with this bad of a backup catcher but it looks like the Cubs will miss the mark I projected for Catcher and it will be because of the backup.

1B: .219/.331/.329
Lee's injury basically kissed this projection goodbye and who knew that Todd Walker would tank this bad as his backup. Again it is hard to believe that the Cubs options can remain this bad for much longer it just isn't their true talent level, but once again kiss the projection goodbye.

2B: .277/.328/.384
Todd Walker got off to a sizzling start but had to move because of the injury and unfortunately those who replaced him have been sucktastic. Though there is a chance the Cubs hit the mark on this one when Lee comes back

3B: .209/.284/.411
ARam has been really bad, really bad so far. He'll have to be sizzling hot the rest of the way out and not miss any time if they are going to make the projection at third. I give it a 10% chance of that happening.

SS: .276/.300/.368
This is a spot I think still has a good chance of making the mark.

LF: .266/.339/.351
I thought Murton would have more power then he showed but alas he is not. I'll miss on the SLG but probably get pretty close to the OBP.

CF: .242/.277/.308
It's amazing, I didn't expect much out of this spot and I still overshoot the mark.

RF: .287/.322/.476
Scary stuff when your best production is coming from a spot that houses the one starter everybody seems to dislike. The spot is putting up more pop then I thought but not getting on at the rate I thought they would but I think I'll come pretty close on this one.

What have I learned from this? Well I learned that no matter how low the Cubs go they can always go lower. Coming into this year I thought there was no way that CF could be worse it is I thought there is no way they could get the same bad production from SS they have. I thought to myself they can do better then that in Left and they haven't. Plus new holes sprung up at third, second, first, and catcher. If you thought the offense was bad last year then what is it this year?
I'm thinking right now 700 runs for the season would be a pretty good achievement for this team and that is sad.

[GaryL]

This may be a new low!

[GaryL]

What have I learned from this? Well I learned that no matter how low the Cubs go they can always go lower.

I doubt the Cubs will ever improve much until the ownership changes. We need a "real live owner" - an actual person - not some corporate entity.

As bad as the Cubs are right now, is anyone really feeling the heat in Tribune Tower? No, the criticism just bounces off the corporate entity and dissipates. If the White Sox or Yankees got ever got this bad, Reinsdorf or Steinbrenner would be feeling the heat and - guess what? - they'd react! Heads would roll. Here, we're still talking about giving people contract extensions!

[Lipsander]

That would be nice though. An owner that lived and died with their team. I wish I had the money to purchase them.........lol.

[Ubiquitous]

I doubt the Cubs will ever improve much until the ownership changes. We need a "real live owner" - an actual person - not some corporate entity.

As bad as the Cubs are right now, is anyone really feeling the heat in Tribune Tower? No, the criticism just bounces off the corporate entity and dissipates. If the White Sox or Yankees got ever got this bad, Reinsdorf or Steinbrenner would be feeling the heat and - guess what? - they'd react! Heads would roll. Here, we're still talking about giving people contract extensions!

So Reinsdrof would cut of heads uh? When has he ever done that? Jerry is well known for being loyal to his people even to the point of being unpopular with the fans or his staff.

[Ubiquitous]

The Cubs kept surprising me. The offense ended up scoring 715 runs which is pretty close to what I thought they would score after watching a couple of months of the team. But the pitching unfortunately gave up 834 which was from a pace I didn't think the pitching could maintain.

Position by Position:

Catcher: .287/.341/.473. Barrett when he played was extremely effective unfortunately between his hot-headedness and his injuries he only played 102 games. Blanco and his black hole bat got around 230 or PA and did what Blanco normally does when he catches.

First Base: .266/.337/.437 You know you are in trouble when your catching position outhits the firstbasemen and the catcher's name isn't Piazza. With DLee's injury this position was a shell of what it should have been. Oddly enough Blanco in a limited roll put in a fine performance, who knew? Too many games with John Mabry at the sack cost this position any kind of production.

Second Base: .274/.326/.411 The injury to Lee had a cascade effect that weakened several other positions as well. It caused Todd Walker to mover over and give playing time to Neifi Perez, Hairston, and even Tony Womack at this spot. About a third of the playing time and a good chunk of the production after Walker was moved came when it was too late from Theriot and even Bynum in a limited role.

Shortstop: .246/.275/.324. Going into this season one of the reasons for optimism for me was that in some spots the team was so bad that the only option was for them to get better prodcution from those spots this year. The shortstops proved me wrong on that one. Everybody who played short for the Cubs was dreadful with the bat. Cedeno, Izturis, and Perez all pretty stunk with the bat this year.

Thirdbase: .282/.340/.544 A fine season turned in by ARam, with his bench coming up putrid. But overall a good season for this spot.

LeftField: .280/.346/.428. Murton turned in a fine season and all of Dusty's manuevers at this position that kept Murton from playing were failures.

CenterField: .294/.333/.393. Mister Pierre played every game and finally got it going at the end.

RightField: .288/.337/.498 Jacque Jones played 143 ganes and even though he couldn't hit lefties his replacements and him turned in a good season for the Cubs. Though Dusty did stick with Jones against lefties too much.

Pinchhitters: .216/.284/.320 Despite the fact that it seemed everybody on thsi team was a bench player they got absolutely nothing out of them when the Cubs needed a bat off the bench, yet the Cubs bench had the 6th most AB in the NL.


According to runs created the offense should have scored 738 runs and the pithcing should have allowed 807 runs.

So it was:
Exp: 738-807 .458 winning %
Actu: 715-834 .407 winning % .427 expected winnning %

Preseason Predictions:
Catcher: .320/.450
1B: .380/.550
2B: .330/.420
3B: .355/.550
SS: .320/.385
LF: .340/.450
CF: .340/.385
RF: .320/.425
PH: .300/.350


the catching spot even with Barrett missing time easily exceeded my expectations. With DLee hurt firstbase was way off. Secondbase only underperformed by a little bit. Third base came in just under the prediction. SS was way off. Left Field came in under on the SLg but over on the OBP. Centerfield came in pretty close to the prediction. Right field easily surpassed my prediction. Fianlly the pinch hitters were dreadful.