Still a lot of Free Agent SP

[redlegsfan21]

I was on mlb.com and looking at the remaining free agent SP and there are some really good pitchers still out there.
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/hot_stove/y2005/free_agent_tracker.jsp?fastatus=unsigned&subscope=pos&teamPosCode=S

Is there any chance that the Reds will try to get a pitcher.

[moebarguy]

I see Roger Clemens and Jeff Weaver -- and Clemens is either going to retire or play for the Astros, Rangers, Yankees, or Red Sox.

[Ravenlord]

worthless: Astacio, Brown, Erickson, Fogg, Lima, Obermueller, Rueter, Valdez

worth less than $1 million: Dreifort (as reliver), Miller, Wright

worth $1-$3 million: Weaver (one year deal only)

not worth guarenteed contract: Santos


who i expect the Reds to pursue: Astacio, Fogg, Rueter, Dreifort

[moebarguy]

Actually, Weaver is a really good pitcher, and is worth closer to $7.5 per.

[Ravenlord]

Actually, Weaver is a really good pitcher, and is worth closer to $7.5 per.
nope.


Home Year ERA IP K/BB BB/9 K/9 H/9 HR/9 WHIP OBA SLG BABIP
DET 1999 5.55 163.2 1.97 3.08 6.27 9.68 1.48 1.42 350 478 296
DET 2000 4.32 200 2.52 2.34 6.12 9.23 1.17 1.29 321 432 289
DET 2001 4.08 229.1 2.11 2.67 5.97 9.22 0.75 1.32 326 409 295
DET 2002 3.18 121.2 2.21 2.44 5.55 8.28 0.30 1.19 304 347 278
NYY 2002 4.04 78 3.17 1.73 6.58 9.35 1.38 1.23 300 437 283
NYY 2003 5.99 159.1 1.90 2.65 5.25 11.92 0.90 1.62 371 481 343
LAD 2004 4.01 220 2.01 2.74 6.26 8.96 0.78 1.30 323 399 293
LAD 2005 4.22 224 3.57 1.73 6.31 8.84 1.41 1.17 305 435 273
- Total 4.44 1396 2.31 2.46 6.04 9.41 1.02 1.32 326 428 295
a HR/9 leap like what Weaver had last year in a very pitcher friendly park is usually indicitive of bad things coming in the next year or two...especially when having that lucky of a BABIP.

and beware of pitchers who when being slightly BABIP lucky (every year except 99, 01, and 04) is still only putting up average to just slightly better than average numbers.

even if there were no concerning trends, he's definetly not worth the 4 years and $40 million that Boras is demanding. not that i think any team will pay that, and i think Weaver will be lucky to get two years and a third year being a team option.

in all likelyhood, if Weaver goes to a pitching neutral park, he'll most likely have a year like Eric Milton did in 2004 (without the very good BABIP). if he ends up in a slight hitter's park, he'll probably have a year very similar to the one Ramon Ortiz had last year. and if he goes to one of the three parks that turn flyball hitters into Ted Williams...well, his 2003 numbers probably aren't far off what will happen.

[moebarguy]

Granted, if Weaver leaves a pitcher's park, his stats won't be as good, but he's still a good pitcher, and will get only better according to Ron Chandler (author of Baseball Forecaster and baseballhq.com)