New Rumor: Cubs going after Lugo

[NorthsidePride]

Much to the chagrin of certain someones on this forum, Hendry, as it seems, is in hot pursuit of Julio Lugo, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays SS.

He would be the Cubs #2 hitter, and another threat on the basepaths as he is a big time threat to steal.

Huff's name was not mentioned, so it seems like the Cubs really do like Matt Murton. After all this Matt Murton hype, I personally cannot wait to see him play, so that I may see what everybody else sees in the guy. Otis is probably waiting for me to admit that he can hit so we'll see :D

Julio Lugo, starting Cubs SS? I like the sound of that.

This was brought to you by, one of the most reliable sources around, WSCR 670 The Score. Listen online even at work. http://www.670thescore.com/

[RBi]

Much to the chagrin of certain someones on this forum, Hendry, as it seems, is in hot pursuit of Julio Lugo, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays SS.

He would be the Cubs #2 hitter, and another threat on the basepaths as he is a big time threat to steal.

Huff's name was not mentioned, so it seems like the Cubs really do like Matt Murton. After all this Matt Murton hype, I personally cannot wait to see him play, so that I may see what everybody else sees in the guy. Otis is probably waiting for me to admit that he can hit so we'll see :D

Julio Lugo, starting Cubs SS? I like the sound of that.

This was brought to you by, one of the most reliable sources around, WSCR 670 The Score. Listen online even at work. http://www.670thescore.com/

Didnt they say the Cubs were about to get Furcal...

Soriano....
Tejada???

There is no such thing as a "reliable rumor source" if it is reliable... then is has happened, and it is a "fact" not a "rumor"

[RBi]

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=murtoma01

Matt Murtons stats from last season..

Short season, but none the less there is what he did for us.

[NorthsidePride]

Hey there Hub. You misunderstood what I meant by reliable. A rumor of course, is just that, a rumor. When I say reliable, I mean that the rumor isn't made up, but that there is such thing going on. It's not some random lie to create a stir. It's hard to call it a fact because it hasn't come from their (Cubs Org.) mouth directly, so of course it will remain a "rumor". Yes, the Cubs are going after Lugo, and 670 is reliable in that they dont create rumors but report things that are actually going on.

[RBi]

:)
I totally understand, I will reply in a PM to keep this thread on topic.

:)

Good Day.

[Slightly Sarcastic]

With Walker almost certainly gone, its looking like a Hairston/Cedeno MI combo, with Niefi subbing in way too often at either spot.

Signing Lugo would make it a Hairston/Lugo MI combo, with Niefi being Hairston's platoon partner and they probably see nearly equal time. Cedeno would be left on the bench to rot.


Lugo might be a "big time threat to steal", but hes certainly not a threat to do so at a successful rate. Actually, given his career SB/CS ratios, if he is batting in the 2 hole, I would rather he never attempt a steal with Lee hitting behind him.


Lugo has 49 errors at SS in the past two seasons. That number might go down a little bit with Lee's glove at 1st, but not much.

Since the knock on Walker is his defense, and Walker would be a much better 2 hole hitter than Lugo, I dont see how this fits what Hendry has been saying all offseason about wanting to improve the defense.



I've gone into great detail before about how Lugo is a bad fit for this team, and will cost more than he is worth. Nobody listened then, and I doubt anybody will listen now.

If Lugo is signed, I will sincerely hope that he exceeds my expectations, but I wouldnt put any money on it.

[SonnyD]

If Lugo is signed, I will sincerely hope that he exceeds my expectations, but I wouldnt put any money on it.

Bet the house on it Sarcastic :dance

Don't worry though, we'll find a way "not to" get a guy like Lugo :ughh

[Slightly Sarcastic]

Don't worry though, we'll find a way "not to" get a guy like Lugo

I certainly hope so

[Larry Biittner]

This is the guy that Houston released because he beats his wife.

No, thanks.

Albert Belle put up the numbers, so you could sorta understand, but Julio Lugo?

Ugh.

[burger eater]

Not worth it unless TB is giving him away, and they won't be. Cedeno will probably do just as well this year.

[RBi]

Well I think it needs to be said that Lugo's career Fielding % is right in the middle of Nomar and Furcal's just under nomar, and just above Furcal.

Not to say they are the standard to be basing your decisions on...
Minor perspective... his career F% is .07 lower then Jeter's and only .10 lower then Ozzie Smith..

I think he would do just fine at short...

I know you said it in passing, but I wanted to say it again, having a gold glove target would help his case tremendously...


I agree with Burger eater... IF THE PRICE IS RIGHT! But they have a history of wanting too much for their players, that is the ONLY reason no one else has him now... or Huff..

Plus keep this in mind they just picked up his option for '06 I think it was somewhere around $5mil. so they have something planned for him...

[rockin500]

Bet the house on it Sarcastic :dance

Don't worry though, we'll find a way "not to" get a guy like Lugo :ughh
i certainly hope we dont really go after the guy. Why trade for him when Cedeno will likely do just as well?

[Nverve1]

No. I'm all in favor of this move...if it means no Neifi at SS/2B. Cedeno will be a starter. Be it 2B or SS. I just don't want any part of Neifi starting full time. There are enough question marks in the lineup: Murton, Cedeno, & Jones that if you add another quesiton in Neifi....oh boy. I'll put away that "W" Cubs flag that I got for Christmas. Because it won't be used all that often.

[Ravenlord]

Lugo has 49 errors at SS in the past two seasons. That number might go down a little bit with Lee's glove at 1st, but not much. you're forgetting two things:

1. Tropicana Field
2. FPCT isn't that useful of a tool, especially when isolated.

Since the knock on Walker is his defense, and Walker would be a much better 2 hole hitter than Lugo, I dont see how this fits what Hendry has been saying all offseason about wanting to improve the defense.because it'd probably leave Cedeno at short and Lugo at second.



I've gone into great detail before about how Lugo is a bad fit for this team, and will cost more than he is worth. Nobody listened then, and I doubt anybody will listen now.

If Lugo is signed, I will sincerely hope that he exceeds my expectations, but I wouldnt put any money on it.
i find you have the same irrational dislike of Lugo as most posters here had of Hairston last year...especially on defense.

[Slightly Sarcastic]

I dont see how anyone expects Cedeno to get a fair chunk of playing time at either MI spot with Lugo/Neifi/Hairston all on the roster.

We all know Dusty loves the vets, and with 3 MI's as his disposal, Cedeno gets left out.




I dont see Lugo to be a defensive upgrade over Hairston, Niefi or Cedeno. I dont see Lugo to be an offensive upgrade over Walker or Cedeno, and possibly Hairston. So I dont see Lugo as an upgrade to the team. Factor in the unreasonable price tag the D-Rays slap on everybody, and Lugo looks even less attractive.

[Nverve1]

I dont see how anyone expects Cedeno to get a fair chunk of playing time at either MI spot with Lugo/Neifi/Hairston all on the roster.

We all know Dusty loves the vets, and with 3 MI's as his disposal, Cedeno gets left out.




I dont see Lugo to be a defensive upgrade over Hairston, Niefi or Cedeno. I dont see Lugo to be an offensive upgrade over Walker or Cedeno, and possibly Hairston. So I dont see Lugo as an upgrade to the team. Factor in the unreasonable price tag the D-Rays slap on everybody, and Lugo looks even less attractive.

A couple things I think you and a lot of people here are mistaken about...

1) Dusty has no problem playing rookies. I'll name you plenty of young players that got plenty of time under DudeMan. It's a common misconception that Dusty doesn't like to play the youngins: Zambrano(22), Prior(22), CPat(23), Juan Cruz(24), Sergio Mitre (23), Francis Beltran(24), Jon Leicester (25), Michael Wuertz(25), Jerome Williams(23), Cliff Bartosh(24), Rich Hill(24), Novoa(25), Hee Sop Choi(22). ALL of these players were either 2nd yr or 3rd players or so when DudeMan got a hold of them. They got ample playing time, and some too much (ie Leicester, CPat, Mitre, Bartosh). Dusty plays young players, and often puts them into situations where they will succeed, and builds their confidence. Choi was getting plenty of PT before the concussion.

2)Cedeno does not get left out. Baker really loves Cedeno, and has said so himself. Lugo is definetly better than Neifi, and in my opinion is a faster version of Hairston. Lugo doesn't have to be a better offensive option than Hairston or Cedeno. The addition of Lugo would make this team stronger, and would mean less PT for Neifi. Your starting SS/2B would be Cedeno & Lugo.

[Slightly Sarcastic]

A couple things I think you and a lot of people here are mistaken about...

1) Dusty has no problem playing rookies. I'll name you plenty of young players that got plenty of time under DudeMan. It's a common misconception that Dusty doesn't like to play the youngins: Zambrano(22), Prior(22), CPat(23), Juan Cruz(24), Sergio Mitre (23), Francis Beltran(24), Jon Leicester (25), Michael Wuertz(25), Jerome Williams(23), Cliff Bartosh(24), Rich Hill(24), Novoa(25), Hee Sop Choi(22). ALL of these players were either 2nd yr or 3rd players or so when DudeMan got a hold of them. They got ample playing time, and some too much (ie Leicester, CPat, Mitre, Bartosh). Dusty plays young players, and often puts them into situations where they will succeed, and builds their confidence. Choi was getting plenty of PT before the concussion.

2)Cedeno does not get left out. Baker really loves Cedeno, and has said so himself. Lugo is definetly better than Neifi, and in my opinion is a faster version of Hairston. Lugo doesn't have to be a better offensive option than Hairston or Cedeno. The addition of Lugo would make this team stronger, and would mean less PT for Neifi. Your starting SS/2B would be Cedeno & Lugo.


1) Aside from Prior and Zambrano, which are no brainers, the numbers dont back you up. Yes, he used those young arms, but not nearly as much as you think he did. And he always found a way to get Remlinger in the action.

most used bullpen pitchers in '03 :
Farns - 76.3 IP
Remlinger - 69.0
Borowski - 68.3
Alfonseca - 66.3
Guthrie - 42.7

in 04 :
Latroy - 82.0
Farns - 66.7
Mercker - 53.0
Leicester - 41.7
Remilnger - 36.7

in 05:
Dempster - 92.0
Weurtz - 75.7
Novoa - 44.7
Ohman - 43.3
Remlinger - 33.0

So he did use some younger guys last season, but thats more a product of injury and the fact that Hendry didnt give him any other arms to use.


As for Hill, Mitre, and Cruz, again thats a product of injuries to the starters and not his personal desires. Rusch, a veteran, has started 35 games in '04 and '05. those other 3 combined to start 28 since '03.


If Baker had ANY sense whatsoever, he would have abandoned the Corey-as-a-leadoff-hitter experiment way before he actually did. Look up Corey's 3-year splits and youll find he had a .249/.301 AVG/OBP in the leadoff spot under Dusty. How exactly is that putting him in a spot where he can succeed?

Big Choi was getting some solid PT before that concussion, and is one of the rare instances of Baker playing a young guy successfully. But he is the exception and not the rule.



2) Baker has also said he loves Neifi, even went as far to say that Neifi "did a hell of a job for us last year", referring to 2005. So which do you believe? Given the track record, its hard to think that Cedeno wont start growing roots on the bench. The only thing that will lead to less playing time for Neifi is if he is no longer on the team or is on the DL.

Sorry, I dont have a link for that quote, I heard him say it on an interview he did on the Score.

[rockin500]

dusty was praising cedeno this morning on WGN (Spike O'dell show) though he did say Neifi did a good job for the team last year. for what he was originally brought in to do, neifi did pretty well. But thats only if you recall that he was only supposed to be a backup and was never signed to be an everyday player.

[Nverve1]

1) Aside from Prior and Zambrano, which are no brainers, the numbers dont back you up. Yes, he used those young arms, but not nearly as much as you think he did. And he always found a way to get Remlinger in the action.

most used bullpen pitchers in '03 :
Farns - 76.3 IP
Remlinger - 69.0
Borowski - 68.3
Alfonseca - 66.3
Guthrie - 42.7

in 04 :
Latroy - 82.0
Farns - 66.7
Mercker - 53.0
Leicester - 41.7
Remilnger - 36.7

in 05:
Dempster - 92.0
Weurtz - 75.7
Novoa - 44.7
Ohman - 43.3
Remlinger - 33.0

So he did use some younger guys last season, but thats more a product of injury and the fact that Hendry didnt give him any other arms to use.


As for Hill, Mitre, and Cruz, again thats a product of injuries to the starters and not his personal desires. Rusch, a veteran, has started 35 games in '04 and '05. those other 3 combined to start 28 since '03.


If Baker had ANY sense whatsoever, he would have abandoned the Corey-as-a-leadoff-hitter experiment way before he actually did. Look up Corey's 3-year splits and youll find he had a .249/.301 AVG/OBP in the leadoff spot under Dusty. How exactly is that putting him in a spot where he can succeed?

Big Choi was getting some solid PT before that concussion, and is one of the rare instances of Baker playing a young guy successfully. But he is the exception and not the rule.



2) Baker has also said he loves Neifi, even went as far to say that Neifi "did a hell of a job for us last year", referring to 2005. So which do you believe? Given the track record, its hard to think that Cedeno wont start growing roots on the bench. The only thing that will lead to less playing time for Neifi is if he is no longer on the team or is on the DL.

Sorry, I dont have a link for that quote, I heard him say it on an interview he did on the Score.

Zambrano was anything but a given while coming up in the minors. There were many question marks surrounding him. There's a reason why he doesn't have the big name that Wood and Prior do. He wasn't as highly regarded in throughout his progression. So no, Zambrano was not a given.

You can't go by innings pitched for a stat as to how often or who was used more out of the bullpen. As call ups/call downs have a major part in PT. Anyway you slice it, Wuertz, Ohman, Novoa, Leicester all had some major input while in the Cubs organization under DudeMan.

As for CPat, yes Dusty made a big mistake in playing him leadoff. But you are forgetting that he was pretty successful in that spot in 2004. So naturally DudeMan is going to give him a shot to succeed in the leadoff and to work himself out of a slump.

Yes, I'm sure DudeMan has a hardon for Neifi. But think about what he did for the Cubs last year. .274, 9HRS and 54RBIs is very very solid numbers. What killed the Cubs with Neifi wasn't his production, but his OBP. It was horrendous. If Cedeno goes .274 9HRs and 54 RBIs but adds a mid-high .300's OBP I would be elated. Neifi was a savior last year, outside of his low OBP.

[Ravenlord]

OBP is production. and 4 times out of 5, the more important part of production.

[Nverve1]

OBP is production. and 4 times out of 5, the more important part of production.

So you wouldn't want the 2003 version of Corey Patterson? I would take him in a heartbeat in RF over Jones. OBP is great, and most important at the top of the order. But production is RBI's, not OBP. OBP is, in my opinion, being the most helpful and fundamentally sound player. It's not production. Production is to produce, you don't produce by being on base...your manufacturing. The people behind you would be producing runs by knockin you in.

[burger eater]

What killed the Cubs with Neifi wasn't his production, but his OBP. It was horrendous. If Cedeno goes .274 9HRs and 54 RBIs but adds a mid-high .300's OBP I would be elated. Neifi was a savior last year, outside of his low OBP.

No, Dusty's stubborn ass batting Neifi at the top of the order hurt the Cubs more than Neifi actually being in the lineup hurt the Cubs.
Yea, Neifi was a savior who kept the Cubs in the battle for 3rd-4th place.

Dusty doesn't like playing rookies unless they're significantly outperforming the veteran alternative. Zambrano had a 3.11 ERA in 2003, that's a no-brainer. Who was Dusty's other option over Z in 2003?
Who was his option over Prior? Corey?
Dusty has only played the young guys you mentioned because it's the roster he was given. Dusty didn't call these guys up, and when young guys are what you have, young guys are what you use. Hill & Mitre were only starting because of injuries. Williams & Rusch were the only other options... Williams was the best of the 4 and Rusch pitched far more than Hill & Mitre, even when he struggled. Leicester had 1 start last year and pitched decent out of the pen in limited time in 2004, Wuertz and Bartosh were used because Dusty had no other choice unless he wanted to handcuff himself and only use part of the bullpen.
Dusty chose Estes over Cruz. Choi is the only guy you listed who MIGHT fit your claim that Dusty "has no problem playing youngsters".

As for CPat, yes Dusty made a big mistake in playing him leadoff. But you are forgetting that he was pretty successful in that spot in 2004. So naturally DudeMan is going to give him a shot to succeed in the leadoff and to work himself out of a slump.

What? A .261 AVG/.317 OBP isn't successful when Corey hit .319/.389 in the 7 hole that year.
Corey had no business at all leading off, especially when Walker does a very good job in that role. Walker hit .294/.370 leading off in '04 but he wasn't fast enough... Dusty doesn't have a clue and likes proving how hard his head is by banging it against a wall.

[burger eater]

i find you have the same irrational dislike of Lugo as most posters here had of Hairston last year...especially on defense.
I liked Hairston and if Walker's gone, I hope Hairston's starting at 2B and hitting behind Pierre.

[Ravenlord]

So you wouldn't want the 2003 version of Corey Patterson? I would take him in a heartbeat in RF over Jones. OBP is great, and most important at the top of the order. But production is RBI's, not OBP. OBP is, in my opinion, being the most helpful and fundamentally sound player. It's not production. Production is to produce, you don't produce by being on base...your manufacturing. The people behind you would be producing runs by knockin you in.
RBIs are almost entirely team dependent. as are individual Runs. and if your contention that about OBP vs SLG was correct, the Cubs would have been a top 3 offense in the NL last year.

you're also arguing semantics with yourself as far as the difference between production and manufacturing (which have the same basic meaning).

as far as Patterson goes, if he hits a base of his career averages, i'd start him in centerfield for the Reds next year if i could get rid of at least 40% of Griffey's contract.

[Ravenlord]

What? A .261 AVG/.317 OBP isn't successful when Corey hit .319/.389 in the 7 hole that year.
Corey had no business at all leading off, especially when Walker does a very good job in that role. Walker hit .294/.370 leading off in '04 but he wasn't fast enough... memories of Jeremy Giambi.

[Slightly Sarcastic]

Zambrano was anything but a given while coming up in the minors. There were many question marks surrounding him. There's a reason why he doesn't have the big name that Wood and Prior do. He wasn't as highly regarded in throughout his progression. So no, Zambrano was not a given.

You can't go by innings pitched for a stat as to how often or who was used more out of the bullpen. As call ups/call downs have a major part in PT. Anyway you slice it, Wuertz, Ohman, Novoa, Leicester all had some major input while in the Cubs organization under DudeMan.

As for CPat, yes Dusty made a big mistake in playing him leadoff. But you are forgetting that he was pretty successful in that spot in 2004. So naturally DudeMan is going to give him a shot to succeed in the leadoff and to work himself out of a slump.

Yes, I'm sure DudeMan has a hardon for Neifi. But think about what he did for the Cubs last year. .274, 9HRS and 54RBIs is very very solid numbers. What killed the Cubs with Neifi wasn't his production, but his OBP. It was horrendous. If Cedeno goes .274 9HRs and 54 RBIs but adds a mid-high .300's OBP I would be elated. Neifi was a savior last year, outside of his low OBP.


Zambrano certainly was a given after moving to the rotation in '02 around the ASB. As a starter that year, he put up 3.68 ERA with a .228 BAA. The question marks surrounding him were nearly, if not completely, gone by the time Dusty took over in '03, which is what we were talking about. Dusty's use of young players.




I have no idea what kind of stats you'd like to use to determine who was used more out of the bullpen, but IP is certainly the most rational one to use.

Wuertz --- 29.0 IP in '04, 75.7 in '05
Ohman --- 43.3 IP in '05
Novoa ---- 44.7 IP in '05
Leicester--- 41.7 IP in '04, 9.0 in '05

Thats not "major" input from those players, except for the '05 season. And like I just said, thats more of a product of Hendry not putting veterans in the pen and leaving Dusty no other option but to use the young arms. I have no idea how you can slice it any other way.



Corey was pretty successful in the leadoff spot in '04? Thats news to me. I dont know about you, but Im looking for more than a .261/.317 AVG/OBP out of my leadoff hitter.



Neifi was a savior??? Seriously man, I'm about to puke. He had 2 good months, and 4 horrible ones. And where Dusthead had Neifi hitting in the order, 382 AB's in either the #1 or #2 spot, his job was to get on base, which he just couldnt do. I imagine that out of ALL major league baseball players with 450 AB's, Neifi's 18 BB's put him among the worst 5 or so in the game, if not the absolute worst. Maybe as a #7/8 hitter he would have been servicable, but as a top of the order hitter he is a major detriment to the team.



OK, curiousity got the best of me and i went ahead and looked that stat up. In the National League, Neifi(18) and Corey(23) ranked #1 and #2 as far as the lowest number of walks with 450 AB's. If you add the AL into that, they ranked #4(tie) and #7(tie) worst. Great guys to have at the top of the order in front of Lee.

Heres the link if you want to see the numbers for yourself.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=walks&minpa=450&split=0&season=2005&pos=all&hand=a&league=mlb&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&qual=false&count=140

[Ravenlord]

OK, curiousity got the best of me and i went ahead and looked that stat up. In the National League, Neifi(18) and Corey(23) ranked #1 and #2 as far as the lowest number of walks with 450 AB's. If you add the AL into that, they ranked #4(tie) and #7(tie) worst. Great guys to have at the top of the order in front of Lee.

Heres the link if you want to see the numbers for yourself.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=walks&minpa=450&split=0&season=2005&pos=all&hand=a&league=mlb&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&qual=false&count=140
it's better if you use BB/PA...in which case Patterson is T-136th with .048 and Perez is T-144th with .030. and FWIW, Pierre is T-126th with .057.

[trixta]

what makes you think cedeno would rot on the bench if we get lugo?...if we get lugo, they will just move ronny to 2nd...hairston wouldnt start and shouldnt start...he was a waist last year except for like 2 games....the MI combo would be lugo/cedeno with neifi off the bench...and i would also like to have lugo in chicago...speedy guy with a decent bat...pierre/lugo 1-2 punch would be pretty good in my opinion...later guys

[Slightly Sarcastic]

it's better if you use BB/PA...in which case Patterson is T-136th with .048 and Perez is T-144th with .030. and FWIW, Pierre is T-126th with .057.


Is that NL-only or the entire majors?


And at least Pierre has some talent for putting bat on ball and is able to somewhat overcome his inability to take a walk. Not that im suddenly all in favor of him, but he is at least an upgrade over what we had last season.

[Slightly Sarcastic]

what makes you think cedeno would rot on the bench if we get lugo?...if we get lugo, they will just move ronny to 2nd...hairston wouldnt start and shouldnt start...he was a waist last year except for like 2 games....the MI combo would be lugo/cedeno with neifi off the bench...and i would also like to have lugo in chicago...speedy guy with a decent bat...pierre/lugo 1-2 punch would be pretty good in my opinion...later guys


Ive already stated the reasons I think Cedeno would rot on the bench.

Go back and read the thread.

[Ravenlord]

Is that NL-only or the entire majors?


And at least Pierre has some talent for putting bat on ball and is able to somewhat overcome his inability to take a walk. Not that im suddenly all in favor of him, but he is at least an upgrade over what we had last season.
majors...and it's out of 148 players.

[Ravenlord]

pierre/lugo 1-2 punch would be pretty good in my opinion...later guys
good for about 175 runs if each plays all 162 games (without doing any research i'd guess that's about average). and 3.43 and 3.82 P/PA, which i know is slightly below average.

[Slightly Sarcastic]

majors...and it's out of 148 players.

So its really all that different from the numbers I used.

Both Neifi and Corey are in the very bottom of the rankings

[Ravenlord]

So its really all that different from the numbers I used.

Both Neifi and Corey are in the very bottom of the rankings
yep, but it's far more accurate since it's not directly influenced by plate appearances.

[Lipsander]

If we get Lugo and I think we will, he will be the starting SS with Cedeno @ 2B. Neifi will fill in all over the place and Hairston will be reduced to mainly pinch hitting, of course this is only my opinion.

[Larry Biittner]

The more games Neifi starts, the worse the team will be.

Is there no better alternative with fewer domestic battery charges than Julio Lugo?

[Larry Biittner]

...of course this is only my opinion.


That's what all of us are doing. Say it loud and say it proud!

[NorthsidePride]

Lugo talks cool, but deal may be far from dead

January 14, 2006

Team sources said Friday that the Cubs front office has not been in contact recently with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays about a rumored trade for shortstop Julio Lugo. But sources added the Cubs might still get involved with discussions about Lugo before pitchers and catchers report to spring training Feb. 15 in Mesa, Ariz.

Whether the Cubs end up trading second baseman Todd Walker will determine the eventual makeup of the middle-infield group. The Cubs haven't drawn much interest in Walker from other major-league clubs.

Insiders say the Cubs are seeking a defensive upgrade at second by trying to part with Walker, but they need to replace his offense. As a No. 2 hitter, Lugo would be valuable in the Cubs lineup. But in the judgment of some people in the Cubs organization, even if Lugo becomes a Cub, Ronny Cedeno is still the starting shortstop.

Manager Dusty Baker would have the option of starting Cedeno at second and Lugo at shortstop, while Neifi Perez backs them up. Baker said Friday that it's difficult to determine who might be his main No. 2 hitter next season behind new leadoff man Juan Pierre.

"It's probably Walker if Walk is playing,'' Baker said about his vacant No. 2 slot. "But I don't know yet. Probably 2, 5 and 8 are the spots in the lineup where it's going to take some time to determine.''

Mike Kiley

http://www.suntimes.com/output/cubs/cst-spt-cside14.html

[Lipsander]

I just think it's total BS that the Cubs aren't willing to have Todd Walker at second and batting second. He looks perfect there.

[Uncle Dak]

I just think it's total BS that the Cubs aren't willing to have Todd Walker at second and batting second. He looks perfect there.

Absolutely! they are going to need his bat!

[rockin500]

I just think it's total BS that the Cubs aren't willing to have Todd Walker at second and batting second. He looks perfect there.
his problem is lack of range and his glove isnt exactly stellar either. that is a deficiency that can be glaring.

[Lipsander]

his problem is lack of range and his glove isnt exactly stellar either. that is a deficiency that can be glaring.


I can understand that, but I couldn't tell you how many times I saw Walk make diving plays and other great plays within the last couple years. I watch over 120 Cubs games a year and do not remember thinking, man another 2B could have made that play.

[Edgartohof]

Lugo might be a "big time threat to steal", but hes certainly not a threat to do so at a successful rate. Actually, given his career SB/CS ratios, if he is batting in the 2 hole, I would rather he never attempt a steal with Lee hitting behind him.


So you don't think that 75%+ is good? He can steal 30+ bases, at a very good success rate - he may not be Beltran in that department, but who is? In fact, he had a better success rate than Beltran, with more than twice as many SB's last year! So if you don't like his running, then I think the that the issue is more that you just don't like base stealing at all.

[Slightly Sarcastic]

So you don't think that 75%+ is good? He can steal 30+ bases, at a very good success rate - he may not be Beltran in that department, but who is? In fact, he had a better success rate than Beltran, with more than twice as many SB's last year! So if you don't like his running, then I think the that the issue is more that you just don't like base stealing at all.


I like base stealing just fine, as long as he isn't costing the team runs when he does it. And Lugo costs his team runs.



Lugo's SB/CS career totals :

'00 - 22/9
'01 - 12/11
'02 - 9/3
'03 - 12/4
'04 - 21/5
'05 - 39/11


So, exactly once in his career has he topped 30 SB's in a season, and averages only 19 a season. Saying he's good for 30+ is just plain wrong.



And 75% is the bare minimum for successful basestealing. That means if you are stealing at a lower percent than that, you are actually costing your team runs.

That's not my opinion, that's the Baseball Prospectus (Sheehan) opinion. This conversation has been had before in a different thread, and I don't feel like digging through it now, but someone said in there that, according to his research, its closer to 84%. Lugo has 115 SB's compared to 43 CS's. You don't have to be a math major to realize that is nowhere near 75%, much less 84%.


If you want to be shortsighted and only look at one year, knock yourself out. Just don't expect me or anyone with sense to agree with you.

[The Splendid Splinter]

And 75% is the bare minimum for successful basestealing. That means if you are stealing at a lower percent than that, you are actually costing your team runs.

That's not my opinion, that's the Baseball Prospectus (Sheehan) opinion. This conversation has been had before in a different thread, and I don't feel like digging through it now, but someone said in there that, according to his research, its closer to 84%. Lugo has 115 SB's compared to 43 CS's. You don't have to be a math major to realize that is nowhere near 75%, much less 84%.



I've heard from a few people that it's like 73% to 77%... in this range, you don't cost your team runs, but you don't gain any runs either...

and the guy who said it's closer to 84% has to be wrong... there's only like 2 guys in their career who had better percentage than that.

[Ravenlord]

I like base stealing just fine, as long as he isn't costing the team runs when he does it.
then you'll hate Juan Pierre.

[Ravenlord]

and the guy who said it's closer to 84% has to be wrong... there's only like 2 guys in their career who had better percentage than that.
ever wonder why the A's pretty much forbid stolen bases? they do it for that macro reason. while that doesn't quite mesh with my kind of game theory, the logic is sound.

[Slightly Sarcastic]

then you'll hate Juan Pierre.

I've already gone on record here with my dislike of that deal. It went pretty much like this:

"Pierre is an upgrade from what we had at leadoff last year, but that's more due to just how horrible the leadoff spot was for us last year."


Might not be an exact quote of what I said, but I don't feel like digging through that long thread to find the exact wording.