The Bill James Handbook 2006

[Dravecky43]

I just bought this. Love stats, especially what this company predicts for next year. Do you guys really think they are accurate, though? I mean, Seattle OF Chris Snelling has had all of 56 ABs over 23 Games in the bigs. I know he was a very good minor league hitter, but this is what the book predicts for next year for him:

.317, 10 HR, 56 RBI in 394 games. And the biggest problem I have with the prediction: chance of injury is LOW. This is a guy that has (I think) NEVER been healthy for a full pro season!

[Dravecky43]

Uh, anyone? C'mon, I know some of you have some opinions.

[SABR Matt]

I agree the progs are way off for Snells...he won't even get a chance to play until June...I think his chances of reinjury are not quite as bad as some people think...a lot of his injuries were freak things...but certainly, his injury chances are at least moderate...to be reckoned with...and although I think there's a good chance he hits very well when he is playing, I think .310 is a tad over-optimisitic.

[leecemark]

--I am more optimistic about Snellings quality (.310 doesn't seem too high), but more pessimistic about his staying healthy than Matt. I've pretty much given up hope that he will ever have a real career. He may have some good years as a part timer, but I don't expect this to be one of them. As Matt said, he is out until mid-season and the Ms will probably be slow to call him up again.

[johnny]

but that seems more a assumption driven model oriented dream about snelling than reality as i have seen it to date in seattle.
however, chris snelling does have a great swing.