How will the Sox do in '06?

[VTSoxFan]

I know this is a silly question to pose at this stage of events; we don't know yet who will play several positions, or whether Manny will be traded. Francona managed a good team reasonably well, and a slightly less-good team okay... but we don't know how will he manage a team that is essentiall 3/4 changed from the last season, and without some of its best players.

I was just wondering how the Nation feels about the team's prospects for success in the coming season, at this admittedly early point. Will they forge ahead despite the alterations and win close to 100 games? Will they win the division? Will they struggle along, and finish a respectable 2nd? Wild Card? Will it be a lost season, barely clearing .500? Let's have some far-flung predictions here...just for something to talk about!

[RogerRedSox]

Ok - briefly here 'cause I'm at work, buddy. The Sox will win 92 and finish 2nd again. They'll also pick up the Wild Card spot. More than that, I can't say!!

[TonyK]

Either 2nd or 3rd and no playoffs. I don't expect them to be consistent. Their defense will be average at best. Great pitching is their only hope for making the playoffs. I don't see any 20-game winners on the staff.

[Kilroy]

The AL East Projected Final Standing 2006 Regular Season

1) NY Yankees 103 - 59
2) Toronto 88 - 74
3) Boston 80 - 82
4) Tampa Bay 78 - 84
5) Baltimore 70 - 92

[Yankeebiscuitfan]

The last couple of weeks a lot of you talked about doom scenarios.

I still think they will finish second in the AL East. I am not sure if they will capture the Wild Card.

[DoubleX]

The Sox as presently constructed, have a lot of potential problems, and unless some of those areas are addressed, I think the Sox will have a tough time competing for the Wild Card, let alone the AL East. Right now, I think I'd have to rank the Sox as no higher than the 8th or 9th best team in the AL, behind (in no particular order) the Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Indians, Twins, Angels, Athletics, and Rangers. Each of those teams either did things this offseason to improve and/or have young talent on the cusp of stardom, and I think the Sox still have some catching up to do this offseason.

[Kdub Red Sox Fan 4Life]

With so many things still unresolved at this late date(What were they/are they thinking?):grouchy , I find it rather difficult to predict how the Sox will fare in '06. But I'll give it a shot anyway.;)

The starting rotation should be pretty good, assuming Schilling returns to form, and Beckett and Papelbon are as good as we think they are.

Offensively; :confused: Manny? no Manny? Tejada? or not? .......... Still, they should be at least average to above average in scoring, so I think it will really come down to how the Pitching staff fares. (Doesn't it always?)

If they can avoid major injuries, they should be in the 88-92 win range. That could increase or decrease a little, depending on what the actual team looks like come opening day.:hp

[DoubleX]

Offensively; :confused: Manny? no Manny? Tejada? or not? .......... Still, they should be at least average to above average in scoring, so I think it will really come down to how the Pitching staff fares. (Doesn't it always?)

If Manny stays in Boston, with Manny and Ortiz in the lineup, the team will still score a lot of runs. Varitek is still among the best hitting catchers in the game, Youkilis should be at least as productive as Millar, and if Lowell can return somewhere close to his pre-2005 form and if Nixon can stay healthy and hit lefties a little, the Sox should score a ton of runs still. Granted, it won't be as much as the past three years, but it should be enough to keep the team at least competitive.

I agree with you about management not having a plan. For weeks I've been assuming that the Sox will pull off some blockbuster and really shore some of their more glaring holes (CF, SS, Bullpen), but I'm starting to wonder if they are going to make a deal and if management has a plan, especially given that they traded Edgar Renteria away and left themselves without a decent SS. After the way the Sox pursued Renteria last year and given his track record, the team has to stick with him for at least another season and see if he can turn it around. I don't get it.

[Mattingly]

Consider me the Grinch, but how can anyone decide how the team will do when they don't know whether or not Manny will return in 2006, and don't know how well their 2006 CFer and SS will both hit and play defense?

If by some crazy example, they had Manny *AND* Tejada, then had a great defensive SS who had some pop in the bat, they could be looking at 100+ wins and 1st place.

The polar opposite would be that Manny would be traded, and if so, you did get Tejada, but say you didn't, then this would greatly affect Ortiz' offensive capabilities. If the SS wasn't as good defensively as hoped, and the replacement CF for you-know-who wasn't as good defensively, then you're looking at a few less wins, I'd say.

Consider me very picky today, but I figure there are too many undecided "ifs" that need to be resolved before we can figure everything out. It's like counting eggs, but none have hatched yet.

[VTSoxFan]

Well, yeah... that's why I prefaced the question with saying it's a silly question to pose at this stage, but... it's more like asking what do we fear the most? What do we hope more the most? What can we perhaps extrapolate from what's happened so far? It's a huge What If... and of course in six weeks, we'll know more and be able to narrow down our predictions. Right now I think it's interesting to hear what poeple come up with when they see this equation:

Given+given+given+speculation+gut feeling=????

[Mattingly]

Well, presuming the Red Sox get a quality CFer whose defense is reliable and at least stops quite a few runs, and who can hit .250-.265, can turn on the speed on the basepaths, I'm guessing you may win some games.

If the Red Sox were to get Tejada as the SS, I seriously doubt they'd do this and keep Manny at the same time. If they can make two trades--one for a CFer, and another for a SS--both of whom have stats similar to what I've posted in the last paragraph, and can do so w/o selling the farm (I've heard that Marte, Papelbon and a few others were untouchable), then I can see them winning a few games.

I'm not sure I'd go with someone similar to whom I consider "designated fielder" Pokey Reese (all glove, no bat), who just signed a contract after missing the entire 2005 season, but a good combo, especially in the defensive and durability areas.

My hunches aren't too good right now, but as mentioned in another thread here, I'm wondering if potential trading partners will ask for the sun, moon and stars, knowing that the Red Sox need two important players, both of whose positions are somewhat hard to fill.

If they were able to trade for either the Nats' Brad Wilkerson or Seattle's Jeremy Reed in CF, or some SS of quality, then I could see them winning 90+ games. How much is demanded, as well as Boston's FO's willingness to give up just that will obviously decide how good a player they're getting.

For two deals, I'm not sure both of them will yield a very productive player. Then Mike Lowell will have to show that he can play well again.

I'll start at 90 games, but it could go up or down by 5 games. Unless you've got Manny, Tejada and a quality CFer, I don't see 100 games. Of course, if the team decides "to heck w/the projections of some Yankee fan up to no good", then that's another story. :)

[yankeekiller34BigPapi]

call me crazy, but I think the Red Sox are still in contention. Letting Damon go was bad, but ultimately it should pay off in the long run (no pun intended). I wouldn't be surprised if the sox get the wild card again.

Actually, I'm going to be the ONLY one to make this proclamation here and now: this is the year that the Red Sox win the AL East.
Hopefully I'll be right, you heard it here first if they do.

[pesky6]

If Manny stays in Boston, with Manny and Ortiz in the lineup, the team will still score a lot of runs. Varitek is still among the best hitting catchers in the game, Youkilis should be at least as productive as Millar, and if Lowell can return somewhere close to his pre-2005 form and if Nixon can stay healthy and hit lefties a little, the Sox should score a ton of runs still. Granted, it won't be as much as the past three years, but it should be enough to keep the team at least competitive.

I agree with you about management not having a plan. For weeks I've been assuming that the Sox will pull off some blockbuster and really shore some of their more glaring holes (CF, SS, Bullpen), but I'm starting to wonder if they are going to make a deal and if management has a plan, especially given that they traded Edgar Renteria away and left themselves without a decent SS. After the way the Sox pursued Renteria last year and given his track record, the team has to stick with him for at least another season and see if he can turn it around. I don't get it.

Regardless of the Damon overpayment, I wouldn't be walking too proudly if I were you. The Big Unic is going to be another year older, who knows if Wright and Pavano can stay healthy, and don't count lightning to strike twice with Small. The guy pitched waaaaay over his head last year--pure, plain, and simple. You've got the bats, but there are only so many 12-10 games you can win. Granted, our pitching staff is suspect, but I don't think ours is any worse than yours, that's for sure.

[DoubleX]

Regardless of the Damon overpayment, I wouldn't be walking too proudly if I were you. The Big Unic is going to be another year older, who knows if Wright and Pavano can stay healthy, and don't count lightning to strike twice with Small. The guy pitched waaaaay over his head last year--pure, plain, and simple. You've got the bats, but there are only so many 12-10 games you can win. Granted, our pitching staff is suspect, but I don't think ours is any worse than yours, that's for sure.

Dems sound like fighting words, and it's curious that you would post that in response to a post where I said that the Sox offense should be alright.

[Yankeebiscuitfan]

Regardless of the Damon overpayment, I wouldn't be walking too proudly if I were you. The Big Unic is going to be another year older, who knows if Wright and Pavano can stay healthy, and don't count lightning to strike twice with Small. The guy pitched waaaaay over his head last year--pure, plain, and simple.

There are a lot of ifs in your statement Pesky6. But what about you own pitching? Sure Becket is a great addition, but there has been a lot of talk about his injuries as well. AND you have to wait if Curt Schilling will regain his form again.

Also a lot of ifs, I know. But you know as well that we don't have a crystal ball.

Just wait and see.

[Sean Casey]

I'm guessing AL East is going to be a close battle between NY, Boston, and Toronto. Exactly what order they're going to finish, I'm not going to try to guess, but they will probably all be somewhere in the 90-95 win range.

The Red Sox do have some holes, but assuming they get filled by players who are at least mediocre, the team should be pretty good offensively, and I think in terms of pitching they have actually improved, assuming the staff remains healthy. In fact, they will probably have the best staff in the division, given that the Yankees have done nothing significant to improve an already weak staff, and the fact that Toronto is relying heavily on Burnett and Halliday not getting injured and on Ryan actually being a good closer.

[DoubleX]

The Red Sox do have some holes, but assuming they get filled by players who are at least mediocre, the team should be pretty good offensively, and I think in terms of pitching they have actually improved, assuming the staff remains healthy. In fact, they will probably have the best staff in the division, given that the Yankees have done nothing significant to improve an already weak staff, and the fact that Toronto is relying heavily on Burnett and Halliday not getting injured and on Ryan actually being a good closer.

I think Toronto has a great argument for best rotation in the division, and can stack up with most any team in the AL.

- Halladay is the best pitcher in the American league
- Burnett is Toronto's version of Beckett and has actually proven that he can pitch more than 180 innings in a season (Beckett has never done so), plus Burnett has been better than Beckett away from Dolphins Stadium
- Chacin is extremely underrated. He posted a 3.72 ERA last year, and at age 25, should only improve.
- Lilly is a good steady and hard-throwing left-hander that slots in nicely at the backend of the rotation
- Towers last year posted a 3.71 ERA. Not too shabby for a 5th starter.

- Toronto also has some good young arms in the bullpen that should continue to mature, and B.J. Ryan is a better option for Toronto than whatever the Sox have at closer.

[DoubleX]

I think Toronto has a great argument for best rotation in the division, and can stack up with most any team in the AL.

- Halladay is the best pitcher in the American league
- Burnett is Toronto's version of Beckett and has actually proven that he can pitch more than 180 innings in a season (Beckett has never done so), plus Burnett has been better than Beckett away from Dolphins Stadium
- Chacin is extremely underrated. He posted a 3.72 ERA last year, and at age 25, should only improve.
- Lilly is a good steady and hard-throwing left-hander that slots in nicely at the backend of the rotation
- Towers last year posted a 3.71 ERA. Not too shabby for a 5th starter.

- Toronto also has some good young arms in the bullpen that should continue to mature, and B.J. Ryan is a better option for Toronto than whatever the Sox have at closer.

To follow-up on the AL East rotations, I made these evaluations of the AL East rotations based on ESPN.Com lineup projections (as of 1/4/06) which you can find at this link. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2279057)

Below are the rotation evaluations I made. When making these rankings I considered things such as last year's performance, career performance/consistency, durability, and potential. The system is far from perfect, as some players are virtually identical, but I had to make the tough decisions and separate them causing one player to be awarded less points. Conversely, some players are so much better than the rest of the field, that separating them by only a few points doesn't do justice to the advantage. Hopefully these discrepansies somewhat balance out in the overall scheme.

Also, if you wish to see my evaluations for all positions, follow this link. (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=38077) Anyway, here are my rotation and closer rankings (no bullpen since ESPN.com did not project the bullpen other than closer):

Starting Pitcher 1
1) Roy Halladay - Blue Jays - 10 Points
2) Randy Johnson - Yankees - 8 Points
3) Josh Beckett - Red Sox - 6 Points
4) Scott Kazmir - Devil Rays - 4 Points
5) Erik Bedard - Orioles - 2 Points

Starting Pitcher 2
1) Curt Schilling - Red Sox - 10 Points
2) A.J. Burnett - Blue Jays - 8 Points
3) Mike Mussina - Yankees - 6 Points
4) Daniel Cabrera - Orioles - 4 Points
5) Casey Fossum - Devil Rays - 2 Points

Starting Pitcher 3
1) Shawn Chacon - Yankees - 10 Points
2) Gustavo Chacin - Blue Jays - 8 Points
3) David Wells - Red Sox - 6 Points
4) Rodrigo Lopez - Orioles - 4 Points
5) Mark Hendrickson - Devil Rays - 2 Points

Starting Pitcher 4
1) Ted Lilly - Blue Jays - 10 Points
2) Chien-Ming Wang - Yankees - 8 Points
3) Tim Wakefield - Red Sox - 6 Points
4) Bruce Chen - Orioles - 4 Points
5) Doug Waechter - Devil Rays - 2 Points

Starting Pitcher 5
1) Matt Clement - Red Sox - 10 Points
2) Josh Towers - Blue Jays - 8 Points
3) Carl Pavano - Yankees - 6 Points
4) Hayden Penn - Orioles - 4 Points
5) Seth McClung - Devil Rays - 2 Points

Closer
1) Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 10 Points
2) B.J. Ryan - Blue Jays - 8 Points
3) Danys Baez - Devil Rays - 6 Points
4) Mike Timlin - Red Sox - 4 Points
5) Jorge Julio - Orioles - 2 Points

Overall Rotation
1) Blue Jays: 46
t2) Yankees: 38
t2) Red Sox: 38
4) Orioles: 18
5) Devil Rays: 12

[VTSoxFan]

One thing, XX: The Wells Question. He has also demanded a trade and might well not be in the Sox rotation come April. In that case you have to factor in Arroyo, who while not a great pitcher by any means, is not completely embarrassing, either. Kind of a middle-of-the-road guy. How would this change in the landscape affect your calculations?

Edit: Another thing -- what about Foulke? I see you've omitted him from your consideration of closers. It does seem strange to me that there has not been one syllable of news about him, that I've come across, since the end of the season, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's out of the picture for good. Timlin is good -- has been good, shall I say -- as long as he isn't asked to work with inherited runners on base, which was a bane of his last year. But we mustn't discount Foulke until we know for sure what's going to become of him.

[Mattingly]

Annie, you think it may be a good idea for you to spin off a separate thread on Boomer, and what he may likely bring via trade? Also, if he were partnered with another player (Shoppach, etc), if that may give back more lucrative returns.

Your choice.

[TonyK]

DoubleX: Great work! It looks accurate and gives us a picture of where each team's starters are. Now as soon as the Red Sox hurry up and find their leadoff and #2 batters can you forecast the hitting in the AL East for us?

[DoubleX]

One thing, XX: The Wells Question. He has also demanded a trade and might well not be in the Sox rotation come April. In that case you have to factor in Arroyo, who while not a great pitcher by any means, is not completely embarrassing, either. Kind of a middle-of-the-road guy. How would this change in the landscape affect your calculations?

Edit: Another thing -- what about Foulke? I see you've omitted him from your consideration of closers. It does seem strange to me that there has not been one syllable of news about him, that I've come across, since the end of the season, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's out of the picture for good. Timlin is good -- has been good, shall I say -- as long as he isn't asked to work with inherited runners on base, which was a bane of his last year. But we mustn't discount Foulke until we know for sure what's going to become of him.

All valid points, and I totally agree. However, I was strictly sticking to the ESPN.com projections. Foulke (and Papelbon) was not included in those projections, so I did not include him in the rankings. Arroyo was included, as was Jaret Wright, but only as an alternate fifth starter. The other three teams did not have this second fifth starter, so I left Arroyo and Wright out of the equation altogether.

On the other hand, Wells was included in those projections as the third starter, so I included him in my rankings.

As for how these changes would affect my rankings...

If Wells is traded, the rankings would be affected depending on how the new rotation plays out. I'd actually bump Clement up to the 3rd starter and slot Arroyo (or Papelbon) into the fifth spot. In which case, the 3-5 starter rankings would probably look like this:

Starting Pitcher 3
1) Shawn Chacon - Yankees - 10 Points
2) Gustavo Chacin - Blue Jays - 8 Points
3) Matt Clement - Red Sox - 6 Points
4) Rodrigo Lopez - Orioles - 4 Points
5) Mark Hendrickson - Devil Rays - 2 Points

Starting Pitcher 4
1) Ted Lilly - Blue Jays - 10 Points
2) Chien-Ming Wang - Yankees - 8 Points
3) Tim Wakefield - Red Sox - 6 Points
4) Bruce Chen - Orioles - 4 Points
5) Doug Waechter - Devil Rays - 2 Points

Starting Pitcher 5
1) Josh Towers - Blue Jays - 10 Points
2) Bronson Arroyo - Red Sox - 8 Points
3) Carl Pavano - Yankees - 6 Points
4) Hayden Penn - Orioles - 4 Points
5) Seth McClung - Devil Rays - 2 Points

The overall effect would be for the Blue Jays to gain two more overall points, while the Sox would lose two and fall into third place, two points behind the Yankees in the overall ranking.

As for Foulke. If he slotted in instead of Timlin, I think my closer rankings would probably be the same, and he'd rank 4th behind Rivera, Ryan, and Baez. If Foulke can return to his pre-2005 form, he would probably move up to 2nd, but last year leaves a lot of question marks for Foulke, as does your point about there being so little talk about him so far this year.

[DoubleX]

DoubleX: Great work! It looks accurate and gives us a picture of where each team's starters are. Now as soon as the Red Sox hurry up and find their leadoff and #2 batters can you forecast the hitting in the AL East for us?

Thanks Tony. I tried to be as objective as possible, so I'm glad it came across that way. I still had some trouble ranking a few players, notably Scott Kazmir, who I think is on the verge of being a fantastic pitcher (he's only 22) and Carl Pavano. For some reason, it didn't feel right having him behind Matt Clement and Josh Towers, but sticking to my system, that's where he fell.

I'll start the same thread I started in the Yankees forum in which I go over the entire AL east by position according to the ESPN.com projections (though there is no bench or bullpen).

[Sean Casey]

I think Toronto has a great argument for best rotation in the division, and can stack up with most any team in the AL.

- Halladay is the best pitcher in the American league
- Burnett is Toronto's version of Beckett and has actually proven that he can pitch more than 180 innings in a season (Beckett has never done so), plus Burnett has been better than Beckett away from Dolphins Stadium
- Chacin is extremely underrated. He posted a 3.72 ERA last year, and at age 25, should only improve.
- Lilly is a good steady and hard-throwing left-hander that slots in nicely at the backend of the rotation
- Towers last year posted a 3.71 ERA. Not too shabby for a 5th starter.

- Toronto also has some good young arms in the bullpen that should continue to mature, and B.J. Ryan is a better option for Toronto than whatever the Sox have at closer.

If Schilling has as good a year in 2006 as he did in 2004 (granted, it is a big if) he can probably match Halladay. As you said, Beckett and Burnett are similar, and I would say I would rather have Clement, Wakefield, and Wells/Arroyo than Lilly, Chacin, and Towers. Plus, the Red Sox also have Papelbon as a likely starter, and if he pitches like he did last year, he could have a very good season (possibly rookie of the year?). That alone gives the Red Sox six starters who are good or better, or seven if they keep Wells. Toronto might have a good rotation, but I'd take the depth that the Red Sox rotation has.

[Evangelion]

I would say I would rather have Clement, Wakefield, and Wells/Arroyo than Lilly, Chacin, and Towers.
While a case could be made for Clement, Wakefield, Wells and Arroyo over Lilly and Towers. I can't say that any of them are better than Chacin, who would have come closer to winning the Rookie of Year last year if it was not for Street's amazing run as a closer last year. Chacin is young and can only get better at this point. While we know what we get with Wakefield and Wells. Arroyo and Clement being question marks as to how good they really can be. Clement shown he can be a top tier pitcher during a first half of the season, if he do it for the second half, I'll give him the nod over Chacin, but until then, Chacin shown he's better than Arroyo and Clement as it stand and for the future.

Extremely doubtful Wells will stay in Boston. Giving the Red Sox the typical six starters that most teams have. If we want to talk about depth in the rotation, then the nod goes to New York Yankees with Wright and Small as back-up starters along with Villone and Sturtze also having the ability to start.

[.406]

2nd in AL East with 90 wins
AL Wild Card
BOS over ANA in 5 - ALDS
NYY over BOS in 7 - ALCS
ATL over NYY in 6 - WS