Jeremy Reed

[Mattingly]

I've heard he has some very solid defense, per the Yankees' and Red Sox' interest in trading for him to fill their CF spot cheaply. Can someone please tell me about why he's suddenly so popular, and not just because he's 24 and dirt cheap?

Thanks. :)

Sox ponder Damon contingencies
Club reportedly discussing trade for Seattle's Reed (http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051213&content_id=1281625&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos)
According to the Boston Globe, the Sox have had discussions with the Seattle Mariners concerning center fielder Jeremy Reed, in a deal that would send right-hander Matt Clement to the Mariners.

[SABR Matt]

Career minor league .339 BA, Career minor league .838 OPS, gold glove calibar defense in Center, 24 years old, and making the league minimum....typical east coast fan...doesn't take the time to do his research and realize that he's a better hitter than his '05 numbers appeared...doesn't know that Reed was the top prospect in the White Sox organization when we acquired him

[Mattingly]

Typical east coast fan? Since when does being on the east coast mean I haven't researched the guy, or couldn't?

I thank you for the info, but can you just offer this in the future w/o the cheap side remark?

Thanks.

[DoubleX]

Career minor league .339 BA, Career minor league .838 OPS, gold glove calibar defense in Center, 24 years old, and making the league minimum....typical east coast fan...doesn't take the time to do his research and realize that he's a better hitter than his '05 numbers appeared...doesn't know that Reed was the top prospect in the White Sox organization when we acquired him

.254 big league hitter, so far (when you don't count his 58 ABs in 2004). This ain't AAA. His rookie season was underwhelming, to say the least.

[leecemark]

--When you already have such a small sample size why would you disregard part of it? Reed had a disappointing rookie season. He isn't the first young player to struggle early and he surely won't be the last. Assuming his value is that of a .250 hitter based on his first full year, while ignoring his minor league track record, is a pretty flawed approach. If he doesn't impriove significantly in 2006 then I'll start to get concerned. Of course, being a Yankee fan you don't have much experience with giving players time to develop:laugh .

[KillaK]

--When you already have such a small sample size why would you disregard part of it? Reed had a disappointing rookie season. He isn't the first young player to struggle early and he surely won't be the last. Assuming his value is that of a .250 hitter based on his first full year, while ignoring his minor league track record, is a pretty flawed approach. If he doesn't impriove significantly in 2006 then I'll start to get concerned. Of course, being a Yankee fan you don't have much experience with giving players time to develop:laugh .

I love Reed, but I keep getting pictures of Darren Bragg in my head...

[DoubleX]

--When you already have such a small sample size why would you disregard part of it? Reed had a disappointing rookie season. He isn't the first young player to struggle early and he surely won't be the last. Assuming his value is that of a .250 hitter based on his first full year, while ignoring his minor league track record, is a pretty flawed approach. If he doesn't impriove significantly in 2006 then I'll start to get concerned. Of course, being a Yankee fan you don't have much experience with giving players time to develop:laugh .

You're right, it is a small sample size, but I would have concerns about a player that hit .339 in AAA and then hits .254 in 488 ABs and a .675 OPS in the majors. His AAA numbers should have transitioned better than that to the majors in his first full season. 52% SB% is not promising either. It's only one year, but it really looks like Reed is having trouble adjusting to the ML game. Those AAA numbers will only be relevant for so long. If he's still struggling by the All-Star break this year, those AAA numbers begin to become meaningless.

That all being said, I'd gladly accept Reed on the Yankees if the Mariners could be enticed with Jaret Wright (or maybe even Carl Pavano). :) But I don't see that happening since only an idiot would want Jaret Wright. ugh.

[Mattingly]

--When you already have such a small sample size why would you disregard part of it? Reed had a disappointing rookie season. He isn't the first young player to struggle early and he surely won't be the last. Assuming his value is that of a .250 hitter based on his first full year, while ignoring his minor league track record, is a pretty flawed approach. If he doesn't impriove significantly in 2006 then I'll start to get concerned. Of course, being a Yankee fan you don't have much experience with giving players time to develop:laugh .
As of right now, if the Yanks could find a .250 hitter who could develop into a .275 hitter and had the defense of an Aaron Rowand or Vernon Wells, or dare I say Torii or Andruw, I'd definitely take him in a heartbeat. The complete package is there but definitely not available to us.

I'm really more concerned with his defense than batting, since I'll deal with him batting 8th in the lineup. I don't expect him to drive in many runs or get any game-winning hits, but if he stops the "1B-to-3B" thing on singles, I'm all in favor. Those fallies gain momentum in no time flat.

As to developing outfielders, we gave Shane Spencer all the time in the world, but between his injuries, inability to hit RHPs, as well as his lack of modesty left him going elsewhere. Very good arm in FL, even did well in RF where he'd started in 2002, but his offensive woes caught up to him.

Thanks. :)

[KillaK]

I think Reed is an excellent player. Both the Yanks and the Sox would love him- he fits both clubs well. BTW, has anyone thought about who would play CF for the M's if this were to happen? Would it be Jamal Strong? not much pop from him, although I think he's a good player. I also heard that the M's moved Adam Jones to center, although he is still a few years off.

[leecemark]

--If the time comes where we decide Reed isn't going to develop (although I think he will), then Jones would be the heir apparent. He is at least two years away though. Strong would not be a very inspiring stop gap. He runs well, but doesn't seem very instinctive in the OF and has a very weak arm. Also, as you said he has no power at all (and lacks Reed's track record for hitting for average in the minors as well). I wouldn't mind seeing Strong get a shot as a 4th OF, playing some vs LHP and doing some pinch running. If he is our everyday CF that won't be a good thing.

[Mattingly]

I think Reed is an excellent player. Both the Yanks and the Sox would love him- he fits both clubs well. BTW, has anyone thought about who would play CF for the M's if this were to happen? Would it be Jamal Strong? not much pop from him, although I think he's a good player. I also heard that the M's moved Adam Jones to center, although he is still a few years off.
Any idea if he would handle the big rivalry in the AL East? Not saying anything against the AL East, but there would be intense pressure there for him to replace Johnny Damon.

Also, where does he usually bat in the lineup?

I'm guessing that his arm and getting to the ball are in good shape.

Thanks. :)

[Edgartohof]

Any idea if he would handle the big rivalry in the AL East? Not saying anything against the AL East, but there would be intense pressure there for him to replace Johnny Damon.

Also, where does he usually bat in the lineup?

I'm guessing that his arm and getting to the ball are in good shape.

Thanks. :)


He batted in the 2 hole a bit for the first half, and then around the 7 spot for the rest. I could see him turning into a very good #2, and maybe a number 5 if he could pick up some power. But he also needs to work on his baserunning if he is going to be at the top of the order, as he was 12 for 23 last year (only 55%!).

[kc5950]

look down to see my post

[kc5950]

these are some numbers of other similar decent speed, average power, good on base outfielders in their early seasons in the league and you should know what they have become

JEREMY REED, 24- 1st: .254 in 488 abs .674 ops

bernie williams, 23, '91 yankees 71-91, '92 yankees 76-86, '93 yankees 88-74 - 1st: .238 in 320 abs .686 ops, 2nd: .280 in 261 abs .760 ops 3rd: .268 in 567 abs .733 ops

mark kotsay 22, '98 marlins 54-108, '99 marlins 64-98- 1st: .279 in 578 abs .721 ops, 2nd: .271 in 495 abs .708 ops

larry walker 23, '90 expos 85-77, '91 expos 71-90- 1st: .241 in 419 abs .760 ops, 2nd: .290 in 487 abs .807 abs

trot nixon 23, '99 red sox 94-68, '00 red sox 85-77- 1st: .270 in 381 abs .829 ops, 2nd: .276 in 427 abs .829 ops

so understandably these are guys who made it, not the prospects with similar stats who have fizzled out eg: jose cruz jr. however one poor rookie season does not always indicate future success. some of these guys had decent rookie seasons even, but none were world beaters in their rookie seasons. team success and the order around you often dictates success in early seasons also, however larry walker hit .241 on an expos team that was over .500, and mark kotsay had two solid seasons on poor marlins teams.

[ichiro262]

If Reed was traded (in a package that would most likely include Gil Meche) we would probably acquire Bronson Arroyo. I personally think that while Reed does have upside in the next few years that this would still be a HUGE step in the right direction for us.
The most likely lineup for the outfield if the trade happened would be Ibanez/Morse in LF, Ichiro in CF, and Lawton in RF. I know it would make a lot of fans uncomfortable to shift Ichiro out of right, but there is no doubt that he could fill the vacant CF position with excellence. I think that Ichiro is the best defensive outfielder in baseball when you consider speed/armstrength/instincts. And putting Matt Lawton in RF (his natural postion) would give us one more left-handed bat and solid defense. It does concern me a little that he tested positive for steroids last season, but everything I've read and heard says that he couldn't handle the pressure of baseball in New York when he did it. When he was in Pittsburgh he put up all-star numbers and that's why Bavasi thought he was a good pickup for the Ms (the more 'laid back' Seattle environment).
Finally, Bronson Arroyo is a quickly developing into one of the league's best sinker-ballers. He can pitch in the rotation or in relief, and in general he is a great all-around pitcher.
Basically, I think the trade would be a great idea (in case that isn't obvious).

[SABR Matt]

Reed AND Meche for...just Arroyo?

If that happened I'd be dead the next day...the suicide note would read: "Mariner management destroyed my will to live for the last time."

[leecemark]

--Yeah, Arroyo is a decent back of the rotation starter or middle releiver. I'd be willing to give up Meche for him. I wouldn't give up Reed and certainly not Meche and Reed.

[ElHalo]

--Yeah, Arroyo is a decent back of the rotation starter or middle releiver. I'd be willing to give up Meche for him. I wouldn't give up Reed and certainly not Meche and Reed.

I think you guys are vastly underestimating Bronson I mean Carlos Pinchot I mean Arroyo (possibly my favorite broadcasting moment ever was when Paul O'Neill, in the middle of a broadcast on YES, called him Bronson Pinchot). He had some hiccups last year, but he's definitely a solid frontline starter. He's not quite Johan Santana level, but he's got the potential to be one of the top 5 or 6 starters in baseball. I think Boston would get the bad end of an Arroyo for Meche/Reed deal... I think Boston would get the bad end of an Arroyo / Ben Sheets & Geoff Jenkins deal, as I heard on SonsofSamHorn a while back. I'd easily take Arroyo over anybody on the Yankees roster... the guy's a potential Hall of Famer.

Please note: the foregoing was completely sarcastic, and based solely on the representations of my Red Sox fans friends, who view Arroyo as one of the top 5 pitchers in the American League. You've been notified.

Highlight this whole post if you don't believe me.

[leecemark]

--He'll be 29 this month and has only had brief flashes of excellence. Last year was his first full year in the rotation and he was league average. I assume you're joking about him as a future hall of famer.

[ElHalo]

--He'll be 29 this month and has only had brief flashes of excellence. Last year was his first full year in the rotation and he was league average. I assume you're joking about him as a future hall of famer.

I guess you didn't take my advice in the last line of that post...

[Edgartohof]

I guess you didn't take my advice in the last line of that post...


how very clever of you :clapping

[leecemark]

--That was pretty cool. How did you do that?

[whatlyahave]

The Mariners need a defensive center fielder of Reed's caliber in Safeco field. Granted, he was subpar offensively, but I think trading him for a marginally good pitcher like Arroyo would be idiotic (is he really that much better than marginally good Piniero or Meche?), unless they have a logical centerfielder replacement plan.

I wouldn't move Ichiro to center unless he suggested it. The guy is a gold glover and owns Safeco's right field. Much of his game as a hitter is his speed. He is in his thirties now. How much longer can he be effective with his unique batting style? Why burn him out chasing down fly balls in center?

Also, I believe Jamal Strong is no longer in the organization. There was a guy up from AA San Antonio named Jaime Bubela late last year. He would be the only viable prospect I can think of to take over for a possible Reed departure.

Reed is not my favorite, but his defense saves runs and increases pitchers confidence. Two things that a mediocre-to-good team needs to win ballgames.

[ichiro262]

We (meaning everybody else here and me) seem to disagree on Arroyo's talent. That's fine. I mean, I've seen the guy pitch and he really does have some impressive stuff. I'm one of Gil Meche's biggest fans, but I think he's hit a ceiling in Seattle. I really don't think he's going to get much better without a change of scenery. I mean I think it would be a great deal, but whatever.
But what I don't get is people are sitting here talking about how the defense would suffer without Reed. To you people I say: ICHIRO!!! He is twice the defensive outfielder that Reed is. Putting him out in CF would be a vast improvement. And Matt Lawton is a great right fielder. Basically, I think he is better in right than Reed is in center. Lawton has a career fielding percentage of .984 over a 10 year career. That's outstanding.
Reed's fielding percentage is better, but he's played for one year -- so it's not really comparable. Talk to me when he's done it for 10 years.

[charlesTG126]

I'm getting the feeling that if moved to CF, Ichiro would begin to struggle. I've noticed that his hustle in the field has been lackluster at best, and he doesn't dive or climb walls. Yes, he's jumped walls, but he doesn't climb them, meaning he can only get to balls which clear by 1-2 inches.

Even though he played CF for all 7 of his seasons in Japan, he doesn't strike me as a highlight-reel centerfielder like we've had in the past (Griffey -> Cameron -> Reed).

[ichiro262]

i think you should have read that over before you posted it

[Mariner Fan]

I'm getting the feeling that if moved to CF, Ichiro would begin to struggle. I've noticed that his hustle in the field has been lackluster at best, and he doesn't dive or climb walls. Yes, he's jumped walls, but he doesn't climb them, meaning he can only get to balls which clear by 1-2 inches.

Even though he played CF for all 7 of his seasons in Japan, he doesn't strike me as a highlight-reel centerfielder like we've had in the past (Griffey -> Cameron -> Reed).

Ichiro does climb walls as we saw last year but he doesn't dive for balls like Reed. I guess he doesn't think it's worth the risk for injury. BTW, trading Reed would be a big mistake. He is the only good thing from the Freddie Garcia trade and we are going to trade him for Arroyo who is half as good as Freddie was?

[johnny]

amen brother. i still can't believe we fell for that so called 'catcher' we got sent in the deal. that still shakes my confidence in bravasi.

[leecemark]

--I agree the deal hasn't worked out that well. It seemed like a good one for the Ms at the time though and I can't really fault Bavasi for Oliva turning into a pumpkin.

[Edgartohof]

--I agree the deal hasn't worked out that well. It seemed like a good one for the Ms at the time though and I can't really fault Bavasi for Oliva turning into a pumpkin.


Well, if he wasn't so much of a fruit himself...

(and yes - a pumkin is a fruit)

[johnny]

that someone could fall off so fast barring a career ending injury.
you would think at least his defense would hold up.
but your right, we all got snookered on that deal.
i recall looking up his stats and listening to the talk thinking,
'wahooooo! at least we don't have to look at ben davis anymore.'