Will the Rockies ever be a contender? [Archive]

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Honus Wagner Rules

08-18-2005, 03:55 PM

I believe the the high altitude will prevent the Rockies from ever being a serious contender. Let me explain. Throughout the Rockies history they have allowed well over 900 runs per season on average (916 runs per season). For a team that allows 900 runs to be a contender they must score well over 1,000 runs. using Bill James Pythagorean method

winning% = (RS)^1.83/[(RS)^1.83 + (RA)^1.83)]

Using this and 900 runs allowed

925 runs = 83 wins
950 runs = 85 wins
975 runs = 87 wins
1000 runs = 89 wins
1025 runs = 91 wins
1050 runs = 92 wins

The fewest runs they have allowed over a full 162 game season is 855 runs in 1998. Using this number

900 runs = 85 wins
925 runs = 87 wins
950 runs = 89 wins
975 runs = 91 wins
1000 runs = 93 wins
1025 runs = 94 wins
1050 runs = 96 wins

How are the Rockies going to realistically compete if they can't keep their runs allowed in the 850-870 range?

Any thoughts? Opinions?

Big_Mac

08-18-2005, 04:13 PM

i think there is only one way to win at coors: out-score your opponents with your bats.

no pitcher wants to go to colorado, its hell and there isnt going to be too many guys that succeed there. look at the pitcher that have gone to crap there.

i think if colorado wants to win a) your going to have to build a young, energetic hitting squad that can play good defense or b) move somewhere else

rockin500

08-18-2005, 08:01 PM

maybe they need to switch to pure power pitchers (in the roger clemens, nolan ryan, Smoltz, Beckett, Wood category) as guys who rely on movement will never succeed there. correct me if i am wrong, but has colorado ever tried to get someone who threw routinely 95-98 instead of 91-94 (or less)?

Big_Mac

08-18-2005, 08:10 PM

good point rockin500, i read somewhere (sporting news?) that tim hudson says his curveball doesnt break at all at coors

efin98

08-18-2005, 08:41 PM

They have relied too much on power hitters and mediocre pitching. It worked a few years where they won 83, 83, and 82 games. Give them two excellent pitchers and two mediocre pitchers on top of their usual power hitters and you have yourself a decent team. It worked in 1995, they won the NL Wild Card...

jrh31584

08-19-2005, 07:36 PM

Maybe if they get a few players who can take advantage of the cavernous outfield and stretch doubles into triples and even ITP home runs, that could also help.

BristolBoy

08-19-2005, 07:48 PM

Firstly, 'ever' is a long time. To say that Rockies will never be a contender is ridiculous.

Secondly, they could move out of Moon Gravity Field.

Thirdly, if they actually won some more games on the road than instead of focusing on Moon Gravity Field, they'd do a lot better.

Fourthly, if they had a ballpen and signed some high groundball/flyball ratio guys, they'd do a lot better.

538280

08-19-2005, 07:56 PM

There was a thread on this same subject on the Rockies forum, here's the link:

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=30346

In that thread, Wolverineman made a very well reasearched post, which I agree with 100%. I will reproduce that for you right here:

I think they can be succesful, but it will be hard. I've thought about it before, and this is what I think they need to win. Getting all of it will be hard, but definately possible.

1. Relief pitching. I don't think top starters can ever be that succesful there. Mike Hampton showed that, and he's a sinkerballer(i've always heard the problem was breaking balls not breaking and giving up too many fly balls, neither thing should be a problem for a sinkerballer). Go get as many top relief pitchers as possible. Specifically high K guys. I think at an inning at a time, they can be succesful.

2. Outfield range. Because of the large park, get OFs that are fast. If they could get a LF and RF like Carl Crawford along with a very rangy CF, that would be a big boost.

3. Infield power. And lots of it. Spend your $$ on this and relief pitching first. I think you still have to outslug people in Coors. Get players similar to Kent at 2B and Tejada at SS. Obviously those two are rare, but players similar to them.

4. Veteran Catcher. Because pitchers will have a hard time adjusting to Coors, I think its neccesary to have a veteran catcher who's great with working with pitchers. I don't think a rookie catcher will be that good(i.e. this year with J.D. Closser).

5. Mentally tough Starters. They don't even have to be that good. Guys that don't mind having a 5.00 ERA. Guys that don't fall apart from giving up a couple homers or just having a bad game. I look at Shawn Estes last year. Horrible ERA(5.84) but still managed to win 15 games with that team(while I agree that was a lot of luck, there is something to winning games despite a crappy team and insane ballpark). He also had his best month in September, which shows he didn't just give up by seasons end. And with my idea of loading up on top relievers, you probably would only need them to go 5 or 6 innings.

Is that a lot to ask for? Absolutely. And you probably wouldn't need everything I listed. And who knows how this team would do in the playoffs. But I think they could be succesful.

darkplague17

08-19-2005, 07:56 PM

It's hard to get pitchers with a high G/F ratio with that altitude. I doubt the Rockies will ever become title contenders. There is a connection between parks that are extremely hitter friendly and crappy teams (Wrigley Field, Fenway).

sschirmer

08-20-2005, 03:58 AM

Load up on hitters, that's the only chance here. I believe you would have far more luck luring big name hitters than pitchers here. The bad thing is that the park is so wacked, hitters believe their numbers will be tainted if they are attained in Coors. Crazy. :crazy

NickG

08-20-2005, 10:56 AM

With the Rockies, everything you know about team building is wrong. In my usual model, I prefer teams that develop hitters and sign pitchers via free agency. It's generally easier to draft dependable, successful hitters than it is to do the same for pitchers - there's a mantra in some sabremetric circles that there is "No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect", and it's a saying that there is certainly an element of truth in.

For the Rockies, though, you have to develop pitching simply because there's no way you're going to get free agent pitchers to sign there after what happened to Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle. On the other hand, it ought to be easier to sign good, but not great, hitters via free agency because of the balloon effect it has on hitting numbers. So, in some ways, they're heading in the right direction because what they're already doing is drafting and developing pitchers - but they need minor league environments that better prepare pitchers mentally for the run scoring environment in Coors Field. The other thing they need to do is be better (and more prolific) than anybody else in snagging relievers off of the free talent market (waivers, 6 year minor league free agents, cheap flyers on live arms, etc.). This should allow them to consistently assemble cheap, effective bullpens that mirror the model followed by the most successful Rockies team - the one that won the Wild Card in '95(?).

Ubiquitous

08-20-2005, 11:06 AM

If the Phillies could be contenders then so can the Rockies. The Rockies play in a division that looks ripe for the taking for a couple of years, so anything is possible. I think they should go back to the bludgeoning your opponent to death at home and trying to keep their head above water when playing away. Let the crafty veteran pitchers pitch away games and have a stable of young fireballers pitching at home. Call them up and down as you need them, use them up and throw them away when they get expensive or when they get destroyed. It isn't nice but I think they can't be spending money on pitching nor do they have the time to develop a pitcher so you might as well draft a lot of college grads with + fastballs and use them up before the league catches up to them.

NickG

08-20-2005, 11:09 AM

For what it's worth, the problem with the Rocks hasn't ever been winning in Coors - they're over .500 over the course of their existence at home. It's away from home that the problem rears its head, so the idea that they can't win in Colorado isn't true.

Blackout

08-20-2005, 01:09 PM

extend the size of the outfield

Ubiquitous

08-20-2005, 01:24 PM

The outfield is already the largest in the majors. It is part of the problem, not only does a ball carry well thus making home runs more likely, but due to the enormous outfield it is easier to hit doubles, singles, and triples as well.

Ubiquitous

10-16-2007, 12:05 AM

Will the Rockies ever be a contender?

Yes..................

SamtheBravesFan

10-16-2007, 12:30 AM

Yes..................

Well, it was thanks to that insane winning streak, but yes, they are a contender now. :)

plask_stirlac

10-16-2007, 07:01 AM

Humidor, humidor, humidor
Would you work for me?
I have got to get through

Honus Wagner Rules

10-16-2007, 12:45 PM

Yes, it's no coinidence that the Rockies now have success because the Coors Field park factor is now in the range of other ballparks and not in the ridiculous 120 range. The Rockies allowed just 758 runs this season and had the best run differential in the National League. As I stated in my OP I believed that once the Rockies allowed 850 runs or less they they could be contenders. Congrats to the Rockies and their first ever NL Pennant. :applaud:

romes

10-16-2007, 12:57 PM

We've been hanging around for years, missing the playoffs by a few games for a few years now...

but now, bring on the sox! i hate them.

http://www.nutsie.com/member/view_member/137897?autoplay=true&playlist_id=1353167&user_id=137897

that guy clearly doesn't, but we will see him in a week or so....

GO ROCKS!

Seattle1

10-16-2007, 04:00 PM

Yes..................

Good bump!

:happy:

JordanDL3891

10-16-2007, 04:10 PM

JordanDL3891

10-16-2007, 06:55 PM

Do you think KC or TB will EVER be a contender?

(for KC, ever again)

Honus Wagner Rules

10-16-2007, 09:03 PM

Do you think KC or TB will EVER be a contender?

(for KC, ever again)

KC has amanagement problrm. Tampa Bay has some serious talent. I expected them to break 80 wins in 2007 but their pitching fell apart. I stil think the D-Rays are not that far off from being a winning team.

leecemark

10-16-2007, 09:26 PM

--I kind of like Tampa Bays young pitching. They could have one of the best staffs around in the next couple years. The pitchings wasn't even that bad (or as bad as it looks anyway) this season. The D-Rays defense was truely awfull though and they need to improve that for next season.

philipthegreat

10-17-2007, 01:39 PM

KC has amanagement problrm. Tampa Bay has some serious talent. I expected them to break 80 wins in 2007 but their pitching fell apart. I stil think the D-Rays are not that far off from being a winning team.

hasn't that been said every year?

Old Sweater

10-17-2007, 05:38 PM

Ha Honus! I'm going to find a "Will Helton ever be a HOF'er" thread to go with this one.

tryAgainNO000

10-17-2007, 06:26 PM

the Rockies are going to cleveland in a week.
Are they ?

SamtheBravesFan

10-17-2007, 06:47 PM

Are they ?

If they don't screw up, they will.

Honus Wagner Rules

10-17-2007, 11:31 PM

Ha Honus! I'm going to find a "Will Helton ever be a HOF'er" thread to go with this one.

Well I guess a lot of people missed the jist of my OP which I wrote in 2005. The Rockies were never going to contend for the post season allowing over 900 runs a season. A combination of good young pitching and the humidor and presto the Rockies allowed 758 runs in 2007 which is about a hundred fewer runs than they have ever allowed before. And let's be honest here the Rockies are a good team but certainly not a great team. We shall see if they can continue to build on their 2007 success next year.

Honus Wagner Rules

10-17-2007, 11:36 PM

Mattingly

10-18-2007, 02:57 AM

From ever-wonderful Bill Gallo:

http://www.nydailynews.com/img/2007/10/17/gal_gallo_10_17.jpg

Old Sweater

10-18-2007, 04:48 AM

Well I guess a lot of people missed the jist of my OP which I wrote in 2005. The Rockies were never going to contend for the post season allowing over 900 runs a season. A combination of good young pitching and the humidor and presto the Rockies allowed 758 runs in 2007 which is about a hundred fewer runs than they have ever allowed before. And let's be honest here the Rockies are a good team but certainly not a great team. We shall see if they can continue to build on their 2007 success next year.

Yeah winning 14 outta 15 of your last games to make the playoffs by the skin of your teeth certainly doesn't qualify you as a great team. The Rockies are very lucky to have won the WC and have even had some rolls and calls go their way in the playoffs.

I'm enjoying this ride though because I believe that Helton was the last high dollar signing for the Rockies with Charlie and Dick Monfort as the owners.

At the start of the season I was saying look out for this kid Ubaldo Jimenez after seeing him pitch the last game of the 2006 season and the great ST he had but he didn't make the club and had a awful start of the season for the AAA Sky Sox and had a ERA over 9 down there the 1st 2 months. Morales got the call up because of the SP injuries the Rockies had (Lopez, Hirsh and Cook) and has done well but has been shaky his last 2 starts.

The bargin pickup Mark Redman even done a good job for the Rockies down the stretch as did the cheap signees Rodrigo Lopez and LaTroy Hawkins during the season. To show you how cheap the Monforts are, they signed Tim Hirikkala out of the Korean league as a SP with the Rockies still in contention for the WC, right then and there I thought the Rockies were out of it but all the kids from the Sky Sox came up and rescued are cheap ass owners. Especially Spilborghs and Sullivan who got called up when the cheap veterans Steve Finley and John Mabry didn't work out for the Rockies.

What is really a joke that got my dander up was Charlie Monfort after we won the NL Pennant was on the local FOX news saying that people didn't believe him when he said he had a long range plan.....LOL...... yeah Charlie, you defy every baseball odd there is and lay claim to being a master mind with a long range plan. The Monforts have to be the luckiest owners in the history of MLB.

In 2 more years Holliday, Atkins, Hawpe and I believe Francis are all elgible for FA so we'll see how much the Monforts are willing to give us a contending team or become a major league farm club like the KC A's use to be.

Neilios

10-19-2007, 02:20 PM

Do you think KC or TB will EVER be a contender?

(for KC, ever again)

TB = If Elijah Dukes can find a way NOT to put on a D-Ray uniform and Scott Kazmir can be supported by a staff whose talent exceeds his mother's.

KC = If the sport was being a pain the royal @$$ to actual contenders, they'd be the Yankees.

romes

10-24-2007, 12:55 PM

What are you talking about?!?! the Rockies are going to cleveland in a week :crossfingers:

No, they are in Boston.
I told you.
Cleveland was going to come apart at some point.

But NOT my ROCKS!

I hate the sox. Too cocky. Way way too cocky.

http://www.nutsie.com/member/view_member/137897?autoplay=true&playlist_id=1353167&user_id=137897

See.