Win Shares: best position player

[TheSlaff]

Food for thoughts...

Best Position Player with the Win Shares System:
(offensive + defensive Win Shares only)

1876 Ross Barnes
1877 Deacon White
1878 Paul Hines
1879 Paul Hines
1880 George Gore
1881 Cap Anson
1882 Dan Brouthers … Pete Browning (AA)
1883 Dan Brouthers … Harry Stovey (AA)
1884 Paul Hines … Charley Jones (AA) … Fred Dunlap (UA)
1885 Roger Connor … Pete Browning (AA)
1886 Roger Connor … Henry Larkin (AA)
1887 Sam Thompson … Tip O'Neill (AA)
1888 Jimmy Ryan … Harry Stovey (AA)
1889 Dan Brouthers … Tommy Tucker (AA)
1890 George Pinckney … Cupid Childs (AA) … Monte Ward (PL)
1891 Billy Hamilton … Tom Brown (AA)
1892 Dan Brouthers
1893 Ed Delahanty
1894 Hugh Duffy
1895 Jesse Burkett
1896 Hughie Jennings
1897 Willie Keeler
1898 Jimmy Collins
1899 Ed Delahanty
1900 Honus Wagner
1901 Jesse Burkett … Nap Lajoie
1902 Honus Wagner … Ed Delahanty
1903 Honus Wagner … Nap Lajoie
1904 Honus Wagner … Nap Lajoie
1905 Honus Wagner … Sam Crawford
1906 Honus Wagner … George Stone
1907 Honus Wagner … Ty Cobb
1908 Honus Wagner … Ty Cobb
1909 Honus Wagner … Ty Cobb
1910 Sherry Magee … Nap Lajoie
1911 Frank Schulte … Ty Cobb
1912 Honus Wagner … Tris Speaker
1913 Gavvy Cravath … Eddie Collins
1914 George Burns … Tris Speaker … Benny Kauf (FL)
1915 Gavvy Cravath … Ty Cobb … Benny Kauf (FL)
1916 Zack Wheat … Tris Speaker
1917 Rogers Hornsby … Ty Cobb
1918 Heinie Groh … Ty Cobb
1919 Edd Roush … Babe Ruth
1920 Rogers Hornsby … Babe Ruth
1921 Rogers Hornsby … Babe Ruth
1922 Rogers Hornsby … Kenny Williams
1923 Frankie Frisch … Babe Ruth
1924 Rogers Hornsby … Babe Ruth
1925 Rogers Hornsby … Al Simmons
1926 Paul Waner … Babe Ruth
1927 Rogers Hornsby … Babe Ruth
1928 Paul Waner … Babe Ruth
1929 Rogers Hornsby … Jimmie Foxx
1930 Hack Wilson … Lou Gehrig
1931 Wally Berger … Babe Ruth
1932 Lefty O'Doul … Jimmie Foxx
1933 Wally Berger … Jimmie Foxx
1934 Mel Ott … Lou Gehrig
1935 Arky Vaughan … Lou Gehrig
1936 Mel Ott … Lou Gehrig
1937 Joe Medwick … Joe DiMaggio
1938 Mel Ott … Jimmie Foxx
1939 Johnny Mize … Joe DiMaggio
1940 Johnny Mize … Joe DiMaggio
1941 Pete Reiser … Ted Williams
1942 Enos Slaughter … Ted Williams
1943 Stan Musial … Luke Appling
1944 Stan Musial … Snuffy Stirnweiss
1945 Stan Hack … Snuffy Stirnweiss
1946 Stan Musial … Ted Williams
1947 Johnny Mize … Ted Williams
1948 Stan Musial … Ted Williams
1949 Stan Musial … Ted Williams
1950 Earl Torgeson … Phil Rizzuto
1951 Stan Musial … Ted Williams
1952 Stan Musial … Larry Doby
1953 Eddie Mathews … Al Rosen
1954 Willie Mays … Mickey Mantle
1955 Willie Mays … Mickey Mantle
1956 Duke Snider … Mickey Mantle
1957 Hank Aaron … Mickey Mantle
1958 Willie Mays … Mickey Mantle
1959 Hank Aaron … Nellie Fox
1960 Eddie Mathews … Mickey Mantle
1961 Hank Aaron … Mickey Mantle
1962 W.Mays/F. Robinson … Mickey Mantle
1963 Hank Aaron … Tom Tresh
1964 Dick Allen … Mickey Mantle
1965 Willie Mays … Tony Oliva
1966 Willie Mays … Frank Robinson
1967 Ron Santo … Carl Yastrzemski
1968 Willie McCovey … Carl Yastrzemski
1969 Willie McCovey … Reggie Jackson
1970 Johnny Bench … Carl Yastrzemski
1971 Joe Torre … Bobby Murcer
1972 Joe Morgan … Dick Allen
1973 Joe Morgan … Reggie Jackson
1974 Mike Schmidt … Jeff Burroughs
1975 Joe Morgan … Fred Lynn
1976 Joe Morgan … George Brett
1977 Dave Parker … Rod Carew
1978 Dave Parker … Jim Rice
1979 Mike Schmidt … Fred Lynn
1980 Mike Schmidt … George Brett
1981 Mike Schmidt … Rickey Henderson
1982 Mike Schmidt … Robin Yount
1983 Mike Schmidt … Cal Ripken
1984 Ryne Sandberg … Cal Ripken
1985 Willie McGee … Rickey Henderson
1986 Tim Raines … Wade Boggs
1987 Tim Raines … Alan Trammell
1988 Will Clark … Jose Canseco
1989 Will Clark … Ruben Sierra
1990 Barry Bonds … Rickey Henderson
1991 Ryne Sandberg … Frank Thomas
1992 Barry Bonds … Roberto Alomar
1993 Barry Bonds … John Olerud
1994 Jeff Bagwell … Frank Thomas
1995 Barry Bonds … Edgar Martinez
1996 Jeff Bagwell … Alex Rodriguez
1997 Mike Piazza … Frank Thomas
1998 Mark McGwire … Albert Belle
1999 Jeff Bagwell … Derek Jeter
2000 Jeff Kent … Jason Giambi
2001 Barry Bonds … Jason Giambi
2002 Barry Bonds … Alex Rodriguez
2003 Albert Pujols … Alex Rodriguez
2004 Barry Bonds … Gary Sheffield
2005 Albert Pujols ... Alex Rodriguez

:gt

[TheSlaff]

Best Player, number of times:

10x
Honus Wagner

9x
Babe Ruth
Mickey Mantle

8x
Rogers Hornsby

7x
Ty Cobb
Ted Williams
Stan Musial
Barry Bonds

6x
Willie Mays
Mike Schmidt

4x
Dan Brouthers
Nap Lajoie
Jimmie Foxx
Lou Gehrig
Hank Aaron
Joe Morgan
Alex Rodriguez

3x
Paul Hines
Ed Delahanty
Tris Speaker
Mel Ott
Joe DiMaggio
Johnny Mize
Carl Yastrzemski
Rickey Henderson
Frank Thomas
Jeff Bagwell

2x
Roger Connor
Pete Browning
Harry Stovey
Jesse Burkett
Benny Kauf
Gavvy Cravath
Paul Waner
Wally Berger
Snuffy Stirnweiss
Eddie Mathews
Frank Robinson
Dick Allen
Willie McCovey
Reggie Jackson
Dave Parker
Fred Lynn
George Brett
Cal Ripken
Ryne Sandberg
Tim Raines
Will Clark
Jason Giambi
Albert Pujols

1x
Ross Barnes
Deacon White
George Gore
Cap Anson
Fred Dunlap
Monte Ward
Charley Jones
Henry Larkin
Tip O'Neill
Tommy Tucker
Cupid Childs
Tom Brown
Sam Thompson
Jimmy Ryan
George Pinckney
Billy Hamilton
Hugh Duffy
Hughie Jennings
Willie Keeler
Jimmy Collins
Sam Crawford
George Stone
Sherry Magee
Frank Schulte
Eddie Collins
George Burns
Zack Wheat
Heinie Groh
Edd Roush
Frankie Frisch
Kenny Williams
Al Simmons
Hack Wilson
Lefty O'Doul
Arky Vaughan
Joe Medwick
Pete Reiser
Enos Slaughter
Luke Appling
Stan Hack
Earl Torgeson
Phil Rizzuto
Larry Doby
Al Rosen
Nellie Fox
Duke Snider
Tom Tresh
Tony Oliva
Ron Santo
Johnny Bench
Joe Torre
Bobby Murcer
Jeff Burroughs
Rod Carew
Jim Rice
Robin Yount
Wade Boggs
Alan Trammell
Jose Canseco
Ruben Sierra
Willie McGee
Roberto Alomar
John Olerud
Edgar Martinez
Albert Belle
Derek Jeter
Gary Sheffield
Mike Piazza
Mark McGwire
Jeff Kent


:gt

[ElHalo]

I like how everyone who's led the AL since 1999 (and probably again this year) currently plays for the Yankees. And we're still not making the playoffs.

[538280]

And in case anyone is wondering, the 2005 leaders so far are Gary Sheffield in the AL, and a tie between Derrek Lee and Albert Pujols in the NL.

[Dodger]

And in case anyone is wondering, the 2005 leaders so far are Gary Sheffield in the AL, and a tie between Derrek Lee and Albert Pujols in the NL.

How could Shef possibley be ahead or ARod. Alex is ahead in almost every offensive category (Runs, HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG) and his OPS is .88 higher. He's played 3 more games, plays a tougher positon. Something's wrong with Guru James' formula.

[538280]

How could Shef possibley be ahead or ARod. Alex is ahead in almost every offensive category (Runs, HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG) and his OPS is .88 higher. He's played 3 more games, plays a tougher positon. Something's wrong with Guru James' formula.

Sheffield has performed better in the clutch this year, and thus has been more valuable to his team. Even though James doesn't believe clutch hitting is a consistent skill, he does realize that if one player happens to do better in the clutch in one season, then he will be more valuable to the team, and thus he puts that into his Win Shares formula.

[Appling]

Lots of interesting stuff, when you lay it out in this manner (and leave out the pitchers).

Ruth and Hornsby certainly dominated the 1920's. Each led his league in WS seven of those ten seasons.

Ted Williams dominance is apparent from 1941 thru 1949: He led AL position players in Win Shares 1941 & 1942. took off three years for the War, and then led his league again 1946-47-48-49. That is six of six possible seasons.

Mickey Mantle dominance is also shown well -- from 1954 thru 1964. He led AL players in Win Shares in nine of those eleven seasons (including five in a row: 1954-58). Of course, Mantle didn't have to compete with Mays and Aaron, who battled each other in the NL over the same stretch of time.

[ElHalo]

Sheffield has performed better in the clutch this year, and thus has been more valuable to his team. Even though James doesn't believe clutch hitting is a consistent skill, he does realize that if one player happens to do better in the clutch in one season, then he will be more valuable to the team, and thus he puts that into his Win Shares formula.

Just wanted to point out:

In no way, shape, or form has Sheffield been more valuable to the Yankees than ARod has this season. There's just a flaw in the WS formula that Sheff happens to be exploiting this season.

[BoSox Rule]

WARP
Alex Rodriguez 7.8
Gary Sheffield 6.5

[RuthMayBond]

Just wanted to point out:

In no way, shape, or form has Sheffield been more valuable to the Yankees than ARod has this season. There's just a flaw in the WS formula that Sheff happens to be exploiting this season.ElHalo sticking up for ARod?

[TheSlaff]

Just wanted to point out:

In no way, shape, or form has Sheffield been more valuable to the Yankees than ARod has this season. There's just a flaw in the WS formula that Sheff happens to be exploiting this season.

WARP
Alex Rodriguez 7.8
Gary Sheffield 6.5

Don't know if the answer in in defense?

Fielding Runs Above average:
Rodriguez is at -4
Sheffield is at +3

Maybe that could explain why Sheffield leads A-Rod in Win Shares?

[ElHalo]

ElHalo sticking up for ARod?

Don't get me wrong: I love Sheff and hate ARod. And last year, Arod was much, much, MUCH worse than his numbers. This year, though, much as I hate to say it, ARod has been a greater asset to the team.

[ElHalo]

Don't know if the answer in in defense?

Fielding Runs Above average:
Rodriguez is at -4
Sheffield is at +3

Maybe that could explain why Sheffield leads A-Rod in Win Shares?

A below average defensive 3Bman still has more defensive value than an above average defensive RF'er.

[csh19792001]

Don't get me wrong: I love Sheff and hate ARod. And last year, Arod was much, much, MUCH worse than his numbers. This year, though, much as I hate to say it, ARod has been a greater asset to the team.

He's been much better this year, but his numbers have also overvalued him this year also. He's got a .262 average and a .440 slugging with runners in scoring position, in comparison to his deplorable .248 average and.439 slugging last year in the same situations.

[flash143817]

Don't know if the answer in in defense?

Fielding Runs Above average:
Rodriguez is at -4
Sheffield is at +3


I was always under the impression that A-Rod was an outstanding defender. Is this season a fluke or has he always been overrated defensively?

[TheSlaff]

I was always under the impression that A-Rod was an outstanding defender. Is this season a fluke or has he always been overrated defensively?

In 2004, A-Rod was +3 Fielding Runs Above Average
In comparison, Scott Rolen was +18

In 8 100+ games seasons at short, he was 5 times Above average in Fieldig Runs and 3 times below.
...with 2 "gold-glove-type" seasons +14 in 1996 and +15 in 2000

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/rodrial01.shtml

[NewYork NewYork]

2006- Albert Pujols NL...Derek Jeter AL

I just ran across this thread when I was googling Win Shares. Albert Pujols has already led the league in Win Shares 3 times in his short career. Derek Jeter has led the league in Win Shares 2 times in his career since '96. Maybe he isn't THAT overrated. A former/current Yankee has won the AL Win Shares title from 1999-2006.

Does anyone here have a link of an All-Time Win Shares list, which includes Win Shares in a career, and Win Shares yearly. Thanks ahead of time, and I hope it's okay that I'm bumping a 1 year old thread.

[GiambiJuice]

Jeter is UNDERrated.

[EvanAparra]

Jeter is UNDERrated.

:laugh :laugh :laugh

[STLCards2]

2006- Albert Pujols NL...Derek Jeter AL

I just ran across this thread when I was googling Win Shares. Albert Pujols has already led the league in Win Shares 3 times in his short career. Derek Jeter has led the league in Win Shares 2 times in his career since '96. Maybe he isn't THAT overrated. A former/current Yankee has won the AL Win Shares title from 1999-2006.

Does anyone here have a link of an All-Time Win Shares list, which includes Win Shares in a career, and Win Shares yearly. Thanks ahead of time, and I hope it's okay that I'm bumping a 1 year old thread.

I thought Beltran led in WS this year (those extra defensive WS helped) Did I read wrong?

[The Toy Cannon]

According to Hardball Times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/?view=winshares&league_filter), Pujols finished with 39, Beltran with 38(which isn't much of a difference, really).

I have to say, the difference between Pujols and Howard surprised me a little. I wonder what caused that difference, exactly?

[mwiggins]

According to Hardball Times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/?view=winshares&league_filter), Pujols finished with 39, Beltran with 38(which isn't much of a difference, really).

I have to say, the difference between Pujols and Howard surprised me a little. I wonder what caused that difference, exactly?

1 point is from defense. Offensively, Pujols had a 10 point edge in OPS+. HardballTimes also shows Pujols with a 150 to 138 edge in runs created. BB-ref shows Howard with the edge in Runs created, but their formula is the basic method. the HT RC formula includes the impact of hitting with runners in scoring position and ballpark effects. Howard played in a park with a hitting park effect factor of 103, vs. Pujols with a home park with a hitting park effect factor of 98.

I believe Win Shares includes some clutch hitting measurement, and Pujols had a large edge in hitting with runners in scoring position, .397 vs. .256.

So basically, I think the answer is Pujols was a little better, he was much better with RISP, and his park hurt him while Howard's helped him.

[The Toy Cannon]

Hmmm, the RISP-factor is probably why Jeter is second in batting win shares in the AL. It must be a fairly significant bump in rating. I'm not sure I like that idea too much. I agree Pujols was the best player in the NL, but, even considering park effects, I can't agree with the notion that Berkman, Cabrera and Beltran were all better hitters than Howard, and that Howard was that much below Pujols(especially since Pujols missed nearly 20 games).

I also don't believe Jeter was a better hitter than Manny, Thome, Morneau, and Hafner. Better overal player, perhaps, but better hitter?

I wonder what the win share totals would look like without those adjustments.

[mwiggins]

Hmmm, the RISP-factor is probably why Jeter is second in batting win shares in the AL. It must be a fairly significant bump in rating. I'm not sure I like that idea too much. I agree Pujols was the best player in the NL, but, even considering park effects, I can't agree with the notion that Berkman, Cabrera and Beltran were all better hitters than Howard, and that Howard was that much below Pujols(especially since Pujols missed nearly 20 games).

I also don't believe Jeter was a better hitter than Manny, Thome, Morneau, and Hafner. Better overal player, perhaps, but better hitter?

I wonder what the win share totals would look like without those adjustments.

HardballTimes lists a stat they call "clutch". Which they define as...
<<"Clutch" is the name we've given to the portion of Bill James's Runs Created formula that includes the impact of a batter's batting average with runners in scoring position and the number of home runs with runners on. The specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of "clutch hitting," just one way of looking at it. >>

Jeter scores a 6.7 for '06. Manny 1.3. Hafner at -.7. Ortiz is at -6.2. Morneau is at 4.2. Thome is at 7.0. Pujols is at 13.7. And Howard is at -7.8.

In offensive WS per game, Hafner beats Jeter .19 to .18. Thome has basically the exact same WS/game rate as Jeter, and both Ortiz and Manny have higher rates per game than Jeter. Morneau is lower than those guys (.16 per game), but he started pretty slowly so that makes sense.

[RuthMayBond]

According to Hardball Times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/?view=winshares&league_filter), Pujols finished with 39, Beltran with 38(which isn't much of a difference, really).Especially when you take into consideration 1B vs CF

[RuthMayBond]

HardballTimes lists a stat they call "clutch". Which they define as...
<<"Clutch" is the name we've given to the portion of Bill James's Runs Created formula that includes the impact of a batter's batting average with runners in scoring position and the number of home runs with runners on. The specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of "clutch hitting," just one way of looking at it. >>You got that right. Maybe some day they will remove instances when your team is up or down by say five or more, at least late in the game

[plask_stirlac]

-7.8 and it counts hitting homers with runners on? Wow.

I'm not saying Howard has to take the Win Shares title, but that's a big hit against him with this heralded stat.

First base was scoring position for Howard. I mean RBIs can be misleading, but he drove SOMEBODY in 91 times besides the 58 times he drove himself in. He did have a ton of chances to drive in Utley and others, and got 149. If he gets seven more singles instead of walks with RISP, especially when he was on fire and walked intentionally, he's a .299 RISP hitter with the same OBP. He drives in some runs to go with his 83, ups the slugging a little, but no season change at all, really.

Situtational
Bases Empty .337/.413/.673, 29 HR, 16 2B
Runners On .287/.436/.644, 29 HR, 120 RBI, 71 BB, 275 AB
RISP .256/.423/.518, 12 HR, 83 RBI, 49 BB, 164 AB

RISP is something important to keep track of but the ABs are 28% of his total, about 30% of his PAs, and the ABs come up about 6 times every 5 games if they had been evenly spread out.

It's great to put some context into, say, Chuck Klein's 1930 or McLain's 1968, but they're still stupendous and Howard did a remarkable job driving in the runs plus doing everything else we want as a hitter that Castilla and Preston Wilson didn't a couple of years ago, et al.

Think about it, 58 HR and just a sliver short of 150 RBI. Or the 50-149 cadre... only Ruth, Foxx, Hack Wilson, Sosa, George Foster, and Ryan Howard? Wow.

[mwiggins]

I don't have the James Win Shares book, so I'm not sure how he captures clutch hitting in his Win shares calcs, but I believe the Hardball Times Win Shares aren't calculated exactly the same as his original ones were.

As you was said above, 1st base is 'scoring position' for Howard. Here's the breakdown of hitting with runners on.

Pujols - .343 BA, .729 SLG, .48 RBI/AB, 8.74 AB/HR
Howard - .287 BA, .644 SLG, .44 RBI/AB, 9.48 AB/HR

And Pujols OPS in "close and late" (as defined by ESPN) was 1.249 vs. 1.049 for Howard.

Pujols' RISP RBI/AB rate was .70, vs. .51 for Howard.

I think any way you look at it, Pujols' overall stats were better, he was better at driving in runs, he was a much better defender and baserunner, and he was a better "clutch" hitter than Howard. But WS does seem to overstate the difference between the two.

[The Toy Cannon]

Yeah, I'd still have Pujols first, so that's not a huge problem for me...however, would Jeter still be the AL win shares MVP without this "clutch" adjustment? He had a great season...but I have a hard time supporting a stat that says he was the second best offensive player in the AL, even considering park factor. Compared to the positional norm, perhaps, but when compared to zero? I don't think so.