Joe Carter? [Archive] - Baseball Fever

The Commissioner

10-25-2004, 05:55 PM

I'd actually agree with you, but I have a feeling that you'd be hard pressed to find too many other members of this board that would concur with us.

I can definitely see their points, as well. His power numbers are excellent, but that .259 BA and .306 OBA don't help his case too much. People who never saw him play and are just looking at his raw numbers may forget, though, that he was one of the top power hitters in MLB for a long time. A lot of those numbers were also amassed with a miserable Indians ballclub. On the plus side of the ledger you have someone that collected 10 100+ RBI years and 6 30+HR seasons. On the negative side you have a guy that only batted .270 or more in a full season four times. His 400+ HRs, 1400+RBI, and 200+ SBs for his career are excellent numbers, but once again that BA looms large. He's got Killebrew and Reggie type numbers without comparable career totals. Once again, I'd say "yes", but I can definitely understand those that would say "no".

bluejaysfan93

10-25-2004, 06:44 PM

I would love to see him get in. He is the Most Famous Blue Jay Ever. But not the best Player the Jays had. I belive that would be Clemmons. But Clemmons didnt spend much time here.

MudvilleMike

10-25-2004, 07:54 PM

abacab

10-25-2004, 08:12 PM

An average-at-best defensive outfielder with an OBP 30 points below average?

Uh, no.

Cougar

10-25-2004, 09:41 PM

I'm with Commish and BJF93. Carter is seriously underappreciated. Rate stats aren't everything -- Carter produced, year in and year out. He was one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball for a 15 year span. That's what Hall of Famers do.

And where did the notion come from that he was poor defensively? He wasn't a gold glover, but he was a perfectly good OF, who could handle all three positions and play 1b too. A fine baserunner too; a five tool guy. A team leader as well.

bluejaysfan93

10-25-2004, 09:47 PM

Joe Carter? Hell no!

The guy had power, but never walked and had a lousy BA so he didn't score much.

.771 OPS. :D

I'm surprised you just listed Clemens as better. Delgado is light years better than Carter. I'm praying that Henry will see the light and sign Delgado. What about Olerud? And how can you ignore Dave Stieb, a truly great pitcher? Soon we'll add Roy Halladay to the list. The Blue Jays have had a lot of great players.

Roy Halladay will still be around for another 2 years. Clemens I think is one of the best picthers of our time. I hate him though, I think he is a jerk but then again thats just me. :radio

MudvilleMike

10-25-2004, 10:14 PM

Rate stats aren't everything -- Carter produced, year in and year out. He was one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball for a 15 year span. That's what Hall of Famers do.

Right, Hall of Famers produce for many years. Unfortunately, Joe Carter didn't produce at that level. It's not all or nothing, just because a guy doesn't belong in the HOF doesn't mean that we can't appreciate his career. Most of my favorite players aren't in the HOF, but were outstanding players.

Cougar

10-26-2004, 12:01 AM

Right, Hall of Famers produce for many years. Unfortunately, Joe Carter didn't produce at that level. It's not all or nothing, just because a guy doesn't belong in the HOF doesn't mean that we can't appreciate his career. Most of my favorite players aren't in the HOF, but were outstanding players.

Well, I appreciate the appreciation of Carter's career, and understand where you're coming from, but I think we may have to agree to disagree.

Carter got 100 RBI seasons year after year, when they didn't grow on trees. He stole bases. He hit for power, hitting 396 home runs (most of these before the offensive eruption of 1994-5) and retiring while still productive (any number of teams would have signed him). He was the leader of and a key player -- arguably the best player, although probably second to Alomar, and perhaps Olerud in 1993 -- on the Blue Jay mini-dynasty of 1992-3. He had an impressive consecutive games streak.

They guy just looks like a Hall of Famer to me. I know his rate stats are poor, but they just aren't disqualifying in my opinion; his outstanding counting stats outweigh them.

J W

10-26-2004, 12:21 AM

The guy just looks like a Hall of Famer to me. I know his rate stats are poor, but they just aren't disqualifying in my opinion; his outstanding counting stats outweigh them.

...but in terms of HOF standards, his counting stats aren't that outstanding. He has a pedestrian 2184 hits and his other major offensive stats all fall short of their respective milestones. Usually when this happens I turn to the rate stats.

If you take what he did in context of his era, it still doesn't look so hot for a corner outfielder. His Gray Ink score is a lowly 103... almost all of it due to his HRs (which filtered down to TB and XB hits) and RBI... with those stats tied to ABs/season, of which he was top ten 10 times.

Perhaps for the supporters of Carter, he is kind of like the Phil Rizzuto of outfielders? Not the best at putting up numbers, but a winner through-and-through? It's that intangible quality that keeps him on my radar; I don't rule him out. But, my answer is no.

Cougar

10-26-2004, 12:55 AM

JW, we disagree?! :noidea This never happens!

His hit total is low, sure, but not so low as to be disqualifying or debilitating (sub-2000 hits starts raising questions for me). Same for doubles -- 400+ is fine for a slugger.

The counting stats that I'm talking about are HR and RBI. That's most of his offensive value, true, but it's a lot -- he's one punch-the-clock part-timer season (that he foreswore to be with his family after 1998) from 400+ HR and 1500+ RBI. Those are big numbers; as it is he's at 396 and 1445. Players with those sorts of numbers are generally HOF caliber players.

I would not claim that Carter is the best OF not in the Hall, or even claim he's close to it. There are several others I'd honor first. But taking him on his own merits, on an up-down vote, I put him in. I'm a little lonely in this, I know, but nonetheless here I am.

Oh, and I might as well mention that Joe had a few big moments in postseason play, particularly the World Series. (Y'all know what I'm talking about.) That's some serious extra credit in my book.

ElHalo

10-26-2004, 09:27 PM

I would love to see him get in. He is the Most Famous Blue Jay Ever. But not the best Player the Jays had. I belive that would be Clemmons. But Clemmons didnt spend much time here.

Greatest player the Blue Jays ever had? Easy. Rickey Henderson.

Zito75

10-26-2004, 11:54 PM

Joe Carter? A good player, yes. An outstanding player? Maybe one or 2 years. The World Series helps his case, but playing in Cleveland doesn't.

Indiana COBB

11-15-2004, 06:52 PM

Joe Carter int he Hall of Fame? I would love to see it, 1993 was the first year I got into baseball, I was 7 years old at the time, I know it was a silly childish reason but the reason why I loved the blue jays back then was ebcause I loved their uniforms (and hey my passion since 1995 the cubs werent so hot back then, and my dad had given up on them) During the summer of 1993 I remeber catching blue jay games on espn or when theyd play the white sox and we'd get those games I was able to bring my father back into baseball with my youthful enthusiasm in the team with the colorful bird as it's mascot. Quickly Joe Carter became my favorite player (And he is still my favorite player that played in my LIFETIME) Seeing Joe hit that world series Home run in game 6 against the phillies is one of my happiest childhood memories. I remember meeting Joe at Comiskey Park( now U.S. Cellular Field....what where you thinking Reinsdorph!) and Getting my baseball glove autographed by him during the strike shortened 1994 season and if memory serves correct at the strike of 1994 Carter had 30+ HR's and was on his way to a carrer year until the strike came. The 2000 and 2001 seasons (at this point a die hard cubs fan) where special to me because in the broadcast booth for the Cubs was my boy hood idol Joe Carter providing color commentary. Joe Carter will always be in my Hall of Fame

dgarza

11-16-2004, 08:20 AM

Cougar

11-16-2004, 09:16 AM

10 100+ RBI years! (107 RBI 162gAVG)
yet only a 104 OPS+?
yet only 2 years of 100+ RCs?

The guy hit .259, yet, in 1986, he got 200 hits!
They guy also had a boat load of plate apps.(well, more than I though), were did he bat in the order?

he's an odd ball, stat-wise
some of his stats look really good, yet when they are put in another perspective, they are still good, but not "really good."

I used to think Joe Carter was a borderline cand., which ended up with me eventually probably saying YES, but it looks like he might be a bit less than what I used to think.

He's more of a 75% HOFer, rather than a 100% HOFer.

That might be a fair statement on the stats. What puts Carter over the top for me is that, having followed his career, he had intangibles out the wazoo.

This is the sort of thing that's completely subjective and impossible to quantify, so you either agree or you don't, but opinion has to enter in somewhere, right?

dgarza

11-16-2004, 09:28 AM

This is the sort of thing that's completely subjective and impossible to quantify, so you either agree or you don't, but opinion has to enter in somewhere, right?
right...
I'm not sold on his intagibles pushing him beyond his stats, however...at least not enough to push him into the Hall, maybe right up to the door at best

J W

11-17-2004, 10:05 PM

Cougar

11-18-2004, 12:26 AM

Here's an interesting list concerning the greatest Blue Jay:

Career Total Bases as a Blue Jay (Plate Appearances)

1) Carlos Delgado - 2786 (6018)
2) George Bell - 2201 (4877)
3) Tony Fernandez - 2198 (5900)
4) Lloyd Moseby - 2128 (5799)
5) Joe Carter - 1934 (4494)

OK, then, do the math -- divide TB by PA:

Delgado: 2786/6018 = .463
Bell: 2201/4877 = .451
Fernandez: 2198/5900 = .373
Moseby: 2128/5799 = .367
Carter: 1934/4494 = .430

Makes sense. Carter's in a group with the power hitting corner players, instead of speedy slick defenders. (Who the heck over thought Moseby was the greatest Blue Jay? I'm not sure he'd make my top 20.)

Of course, Carter spent his prime years with the Indians, on lousy teams in low offense environments. (Certainly his best single season was 1986.) He didn't play a game for Toronto until he was 31 years old.

Delgado has only been a Blue Jay and turned 32 this year. Bell was a regular for 7 years, ages 24-30.

(He was only on Toronto for 7 years. I'd have guessed longer before checking the record -- seemed like he was there forever.)

Delgado's the best so far, but hasn't endured a decline and enjoyed the offensive renaissance of the late 90's.

I'd give Carter a slight edge on Bell because of peripheral advantages in speed, defense, and durability. That said, it's been forgotten just how spectacularly Bell could rake.

dgarza

11-18-2004, 07:26 AM

Greatest player the Blue Jays ever had? Easy. Rickey Henderson.
What!?
I always thought it was Canseco...Pete Vuckovich at the very least

csh19792001

11-18-2004, 09:14 AM

OK, then, do the math -- divide TB by PA:

Delgado: 2786/6018 = .463
Bell: 2201/4877 = .451
Fernandez: 2198/5900 = .373
Moseby: 2128/5799 = .367
Carter: 1934/4494 = .430

Makes sense. Carter's in a group with the power hitting corner players, instead of speedy slick defenders. (Who the heck over thought Moseby was the greatest Blue Jay? I'm not sure he'd make my top 20.)

Of course, Carter spent his prime years with the Indians, on lousy teams in low offense environments. (Certainly his best single season was 1986.) He didn't play a game for Toronto until he was 31 years old.

Delgado has only been a Blue Jay and turned 32 this year. Bell was a regular for 7 years, ages 24-30.

(He was only on Toronto for 7 years. I'd have guessed longer before checking the record -- seemed like he was there forever.)

Delgado's the best so far, but hasn't endured a decline and enjoyed the offensive renaissance of the late 90's.

I'd give Carter a slight edge on Bell because of peripheral advantages in speed, defense, and durability. That said, it's been forgotten just how spectacularly Bell could rake.

RBI's are a stat of opportunity. Carter's stat with RISP for his career (and with the bases loaded) are not better than many of the other great candidates for the HOF, but he had more guys on base than the majority of them, obviously. So while's it's great that he did drive in runs like he did, we must take that into consideration.

Carter's heroics in the postseason are commendable, but his record isn't enough to get him in the HOF.

Captain Cold Nose

11-18-2004, 09:48 AM

What!?
I always thought it was Canseco...Pete Vuckovich at the very least

Barry Bonnell.

bluejaysfan93

11-18-2004, 01:58 PM

I just think he did somthing for baseball in canada that no one after since him has done before. I know my friend who's 2 bothers both signed up for baseball because of him. He was there fav player. It would be awesome to see him in the hall.

BoSox Rule

11-20-2004, 03:55 PM

It's the Hall of Fame. For the greatest players.

Not who got some of your buddies interested in baseball.

Joe Carter in the Hall?

Please. I'll pass.

J W

11-20-2004, 08:59 PM

Not who got some of your buddies interested in baseball.

Actually, you might be surprised how close to the truth that is.

DodgerBlue81

06-30-2005, 05:58 PM

Only 12 players have had 10 100 RBI seasons:

1. Babe Ruth
2. Lou Gehrig
3. Willie Mays
4. Hank Aaron
5. Jimmie Foxx
6. Stan Musial
7. Al Simmons
8. Goose Goslin
9. Barry Bonds
10. Rafael Palmeiro
11. Frank Thomas
12. JOE CARTER

jalbright

08-12-2005, 09:08 AM

Looking at Win Shares, Carter finishes below Jim Rice in all the following categories: career WS (JC 240- JR 282), Top 3 seasons (JC ttl 78, JR ttl 92), Best 5 consecutive (JC 109-JR 127) and WS/162 (JC 17.76-JR 21.86). Rice finished 30th, 26th, 33rd and 49th in those four categories among the 100 LF listed in Bill James latest Historical Abstract. I don't think Rice's performance is HOF worthy, which means to me we shouldn't even be talking about Joe Carter.

Jim Albright

runningshoes

08-15-2005, 06:56 AM

Yes, he should be in and the argument below supports what I believe.

Freakshow

08-15-2005, 07:39 AM

From BB-Ref, these are the players with the most similar career stat lines to Carter's:
Murphy (901)
Andres Galarraga (883)
Ruben Sierra (880)
Don Baylor (864)
Jim Rice (864)
Orlando Cepeda (861) *
Gary Gaetti (860)
Chili Davis (857)
Willie Stargell (837) *
Ellis Burks (837)

Carter's main credential is those ten 100 RBI seasons. As was said, a lot of this is due to having lots of guys on base to drive in. Just as significant is the fact he was NEVER out of the lineup--next to Ripken, he was the most durable player of his era. Any good hitter of that era would drive in 100 runs, given the same number of opportunities as Carter had.

During his prime (1986-94) Carter had an OPS of .797. (Bonds, McGriff and Griffey were over .900.) Among players with more than 3300 plate appearances in those years, Carter ranks 50th. However, he is first in RBI for those nine years, by more than 100. The only players within 200 are Puckett, Sierra, Canseco and Murray. In those nine years, only Ripken and Butler had more plate appearances, only Ripken played in more games.

runningshoes

08-15-2005, 08:13 AM

I like Dodgerblue81 and Freakshow's posts. They make the case neither for or against Carter without telling others we shouldn't be discussing the matter. But I think it's clear where they stand.

jalbright

08-18-2005, 09:25 AM

I like Dodgerblue81 and Freakshow's posts. They make the case neither for or against Carter without telling others we shouldn't be discussing the matter. But I think it's clear where they stand.

I guess that's a veiled reference to this post:
Looking at Win Shares, Carter finishes below Jim Rice in all the following categories: career WS (JC 240- JR 282), Top 3 seasons (JC ttl 78, JR ttl 92), Best 5 consecutive (JC 109-JR 127) and WS/162 (JC 17.76-JR 21.86). Rice finished 30th, 26th, 33rd and 49th in those four categories among the 100 LF listed in Bill James latest Historical Abstract. I don't think Rice's performance is HOF worthy, which means to me we shouldn't even be talking about Joe Carter [emphasis added].

I was expressing my opinion that Joe Carter isn't even close to HOF territory. It's called a figure of speech. You can talk about his seriously deficient case for the HOF all you want. It won't get any better by doing so, but I have nothing against free speech that hurts no one.

Just for laughs, let's see where in that list of 100 LFs Carter finishes in those four categories, shall we? Career win shares: 43rd; top 3 seasons in win shares: tied for 52nd, omitting Elmer E. Smith's inflated 19th century pitching year; best 5 consecutive years in win shares: tied for 50th; and win shares per 162 games: 87th. His best finish is 43rd, two others are in the low fifties and the last one well into the eighties. That's just among the left fielders, and we've only got 220 or so players currently in the Hall. Pardon me for thinking his case for the Hall is pitifully weak.

Jim Albright

jalbright

08-18-2005, 02:27 PM

I see in Freakshow's post that only two of Carter's 10 most similar players are in the HOF (not a top credential to be sure) and that Carter ranks quite low for a HOFer in terms of OPS when compared to his peers (50th). The post credits him with being durable, which certainly has some value, especially to someone like me who gives great weight to career accomplishments. He was an above-average to good player, but not great. He did get a lot of chances to drive in runs and did fairly well with that. It's an interesting fact, and maybe he gets a little extra credit for that, but not much IMHO.

Jim Albright

jalbright

08-18-2005, 02:35 PM

From baseball-reference.com:

Joe Carter
Black ink: 9 points, 234th best all time
Gray ink: 103 points, 203rd best all time
HOF standards 31.2, 254th best all time

None of these categories deal with defense, which is certainly not Carter's strong suit. He's right on the edge of the HOF if you completely ignore the defensive side of the ball, if not already on the outside looking in. I submit that strongly suggests he's toast.

Jim Albright

Cougar

08-18-2005, 04:04 PM

Where's all this coming from that Carter was a poor defensive player?

While he was never a gold glover, he didn't have a rep as a defensive butcher when he played. Indeed, in his twenties he was considered pretty good, and he was basically adequate in his thirties.

Plus, he capably played four positions (the three OF spots and 1b), which has some marginal value (not a lot, but some).

I don't really think Carter's defense really affects his case much one way or the other.

Big_Mac

08-18-2005, 04:18 PM

never really thought about this.

he is a first-ballot hof in the canadian hof but for the real hof, maybe

one of my alltime favorites and ill never forget his ws-winning home run

runningshoes

08-18-2005, 05:05 PM

I don't know if I'd call it veiled.

leecemark

08-18-2005, 05:08 PM

--I don't think the issue is really one of Carter's defensive quality. It is that he is outside the top 200 offensive players in the measures referenced and that he doesn't have a bunch of defensive upside to make up for that.
--Carter was a fairly good, but hardly outstanding, defensive player. As a corner OF/1B that isn't going to vault you past any but the most wretched defenders amoung those who outhit you. Guys who weren't as good with the bat, but who played more demanding defensive positions, are also going to be more deserving than Carter. In a Hall twice the size of the curent one there might be a place for Joe Carter. He doesn't belong in the Hall that exists today.

Cougar

08-18-2005, 05:56 PM

That's perfectly valid; thanks Mark.

My beef is that its inaccurate and misleading to badmouth Carter's defense when he was a plus defender.

The guy's got a .306 OBP -- bash him for that, if you must. Let's not make stuff up that's not so.

jalbright

08-18-2005, 07:32 PM

I'm only saying Carter was not noted for his defensive contributions, but that's hardly unique for a left fielder/DH. I'm not bashing his defense. However, middle infielders and catchers are expected to make significant defensive contributions--and anybody in those positions who might be close to Carter in hitting only measures could easily surpass Carter's overall value because of their defensive contributions. For similar reasons, noted glove men at third, center or right could surpass him in total value even if they're behind him with the bat. I'm not convinced it's appropriate to knock Carter's defense, and in any event, I don't need to in order to make the point that Carter's value is simply not what is expected of a Hall of Famer.

Actually, since the HOF has about 60 MLB pitchers, the limit for HOFers should be about the top 160 or so position players. Carter has to move up significantly and can only do so because of his glove, but as Cougar notes, his defense doesn't really affect his case one way or the other.

Let's face it, Carter's one real plus is his RBI--and how much credit beyond what his other stats would indicate does he deserve for that? If he performed at the level one would expect a hitter of his quality when he had men on base to do in that situation, none because he's merely the beneficiary of having a lot of opportunities. If he actually performed significantly better in those situations, that's a bit of a plus--but at least IMO an almost equal minus because if he somehow could perform consistently better in the "clutch" than he did on other occasions, why couldn't he bear down in those other "non-clutch" occasions and raise his overall performance level?

Jim Albright

jalbright

08-18-2005, 08:06 PM

I also didn't mention that the total number of inductees in Cooperstown includes Negro Leaguers, who are not among the 200+ major leaguers Carter is behind.

Jim Albright

125osprey

04-03-2006, 12:30 PM

I love Joe but he just isn't a Hall of Famer.

Richmond Hill Phoenix

04-03-2006, 09:17 PM

All I can say is that if I had to pick one piece of baseball footage to watch over and over, it would be Joe Carter jumping around the bases, with Tom Cheek in the background saying: "Touch 'em all joe". That is true happiness right there. I get shivers every time I watch that video. Hall or no hall, that moment is something that makes me smile no matter what mood I'm in.

125osprey

04-04-2006, 12:06 PM