Juan Gonzalez a Hall of Famer?

[Mariano Rivera]

He has 434 career homers and a .295 career batting average. He has been very injury prone the last few years, including this year as well. I know if he retired right now he would not get into the Hall of Fame because he was a lock 5 or 6 years ago to at least hit 600 or more career bombs. Tell me what you think. :)

[Windy City Fan]

Pros:

2 MVP Awards with two more top 5 finishes and another top ten finish.
2 Home Run titles and a very good chance at 500.
Averages over 90 RBI a season.
Good average for a slugger at .290
Career OPS+ of 133
Still young enough to add to his numbers.

Cons:
Career has faded in recent years, and his counting stats may not look as impressive when stacked up against contemparies like Sosa, Bonds, McGwire, Griffey, and Rodriguez.
22 active players are ahead of him in OPS+, including non HOFers like Brian Giles, Edgar Martinez, Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreau, and Jim Edmonds.
Never hit 50 HRs in the home run happy era he plays in.
A little light in black ink.

Overall, I'd say Juan has a chance to get elected. Its quite possible the writers will look at his stats and say, “Oooh, a career .290 hitter with 500 HRs and a boat load of RBIs!” Personally, I'd say no if he retired right now, and if he finishes his career like I think he will, I'd probably be sitting on the fence. If he finishes stronger than I expect him to, he'll be a lock.

[DoubleX]

The 2 MVPs look really nice, but that doesn't always sway the fickle voters. If it did, then Dale Murphy wouldn't be in danger of falling off the ballot next year.

[Bump11]

Yeah DoubleX the 2 MVPs do look good. He's had a couple of .330-45-130 type seasons in his career. But to be a Hal member you have to be consistent your entire career, and for the last 4 years he has not been doing that. So here's what I say-- if he gets to 500 dingers, yes, if not, no.

[Cougar]

If he's finished, I think he'll have a hard time making it.

If he's got one more good year in him (say, .280, 35, 100), I'd upgrade him to probable.

If he's got two more, then he hits 500 and he's a lock.

I think it's hard to project him now because his health and motivation are such question marks.

His case is wholly on offensive stats; he's a mediocre fielder and baserunner, a clubhouse cipher, and a postseason bust. The two MVP's are nice, but tell it to Dale Murphy (who should be in, by the way).

[four tool]

I'm on the fence about Juan, but Murphy should be in if Juan even gets seriously considered!

[improbus]

I'm having a hard time deciding whether Juan's HOF material. Really, I think he's very similar to Edgar Martinez in many ways, with Juan having 100 more dingers, but with Edgar having a massively higher OBP. I think the two MVP's, and the fact that he may be able to play a few more years work in Juan's favor, but I agree with most everyone else, if he retired today, I would have to say no.
PS. Why aren't people haggling over Juan being primarily a DH over the last 10 years? It has been the hot topic with Edgar, but I haven't seen it with Juan. Usually, I think the a HOF either has to be the absolute best at what he did over at least eight to ten years, or be really, really, good in more than one area. So, for example, Rickey is a HOF because he was the best basestealer over a long period, but Vince Coleman isn't because he didn't last long enough, the same goes with Roger over Doc Gooden, Randy Johnson over Kevin Brown, and Sammy over Luis Gonzalez. Was Juan more dominant over his period than Ken Griffey Jr.? Frank Thomas? Alex Rodriguez? Manny Ramirez? even Alvert Belle? So, if he's not totally freakish and better than them, then he better have done something else to deserve the hall, such as Pudge's defense, Raffy's Gold Gloves and 500 home runs, Jeter's rings and big game presence, Griffey's glove and the list goes on. There are too many guys putting up numbers like Juan Gonzalez to let them all in, so there has to be some sort of new criterion, because if we let in Juan, what happens when guys like Brian Giles and Richie Sexson come up? They will have 400 home runs, around a .300 average, tons of RBI's, a good OBP., etc...., but they can't all get in. Again, as I said with Edgar, odds are, if Juan goes in, someone gets left out, and who will that be? Jeff Bagwell? Frank Thomas? It's a tough call.

[Brad Harris]

Juan Gonzalez's MVP seasons were 1996 and 1998. Below is where Gonzalez ranked among AL players in win shares for those seasons.

1996 American League
34 Alex Rodriguez, Seattle
32 Chuck Knoblauch, Minnesota
31 Roberto Alomar, Baltimore
31 Albert Belle, Cleveland
30 Rafael Palmeiro, Baltimore
29 Mark McGwire, Oakland
29 Mo Vaughn, Boston
28 Brady Anderson, Baltimore
28 Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle
28 Frank Thomas, Chicago
28 Jim Thome, Cleveland
26 Bernie Williams, New York
24 Pat Hentgen, Toronto
23 Kenny Lofton, Cleveland
23 Edgar Martinez, Seattle
23 Manny Ramirez, Cleveland
23 Ivan Rodriguez, Texas
22 Jay Buhner, Seattle
22 Ken Hill, Texas
22 Paul O'Neill, New York
22 Cal Ripken Jr., Baltimore
22 Tim Salmon, California
21 Juan Gonzalez, Texas
21 Rusty Greer, Texas
21 Bobby Higginson, Detroit
21 Tino Martinez, New York
21 Charles Nagy, Cleveland
21 Tony Phillips, Chicago

1998 American League
37 Albert Belle, Chicago
30 Alex Rodriguez, Seattle
29 Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle
29 Jose Offerman, Kansas City
27 Scott Brosius, New York
27 Nomar Garciaparra, Boston
27 Derek Jeter, New York
27 Ivan Rodriguez, Texas
27 Bernie Williams, New York
26 Paul O'Neill, New York
25 Roger Clemens, Toronto
25 Ray Durham, Chicago
25 Juan Gonzalez, Texas
25 Manny Ramirez, Cleveland
25 Frank Thomas, Chicago
25 Mo Vaughn, Boston

So, according to win shares, Gonzalez tied as the 23rd most valuable player in 1996 and tied as the 11th most valuable player in 1998. The point being, not that JuanGone was necessarily the 23rd or 11th best player in the league, but that Gonzalez was one of many worthy (and perhaps more worthy) candidates. It isn't as if he was substantially more identifiable over hitters like Albert Belle, Mo Vaughn, Frank Thomas, etc. during those seasons.

This isn't to say necessarily that Gonzalez was undeserving of his two awards (though you could certainly be forgiven for drawing that conclusion from this data). Rather to say that an argument can be made that Gonzalez's awards could arguably have been mistakes. He did win the MVP. Twice. But as we all know from other BBWAA "awards" - the Hall of Fame elections, for example - the writers do make mistakes and are prone to prejudices.

[Windy City Fan]

I'm on the fence about Juan, but Murphy should be in if Juan even gets seriously considered!
Dale Murphy

OPS+121
Average .265 (.267)
OBP .346 (.336)
SLG .469 (.398)
SB 161 (70%)
K to BB Ratio 1:1.77
Black Ink 31
Grey Ink 147
2 MVP (two other top ten finishes, 7th and 9th)
5 GG
Range Factor 2.25 (1.96)
Fielding Perct. .983 (.980)

Juan Gonzalez

OPS+133
Average .296 (.270)
OBP .344 (.341)
SLG .563 (.425)
SB 26 (59%)
K to BB Ratio 1:2.80
Black Ink 17
Grey Ink 105
2 MVP (three other top ten finishes, 4th, 5th, and 9th)
No GG
Range Factor 1.86 (1.79)
Fielding Perct. .986 (.981)

Both didn't take a lot of walks, though Murph was much better at it. Both struck out a lot.

Murphy was clearly a better baserunner (he even had a 30-30 season) and fielder (bonus points for being a centerfielder). However, since Murphy wasn't a great fielder or a great baserunner, I was prepared to argue that Juan's advantages in Batting Average and Slugging Percentage, along with his superior rankings in the MVP voting were enought to tilt the advantage to him.

Then I looked up Black Ink and Grey Ink scores. Juan is no longer a serious canidate to lead the league in any major offensive catagories, so its fair to compare them in Black Ink, and probably Grey Ink too. Murphy blows Juan Gone away. Its fairly obvious that Murphy was more of a premier player in his day than Gonzalez was in his.

I've never really supported Murphy's canidacy for the hall, but I was leaning towards a hesitant yes for Gonzalez. Now I'm not sure what to think.

[Brad Harris]

Murphy stacks up well against his contemporaries and against the historic norms for Hall of Fame center fielders. The same can't be said for Gonzalez. I have Murphy as a "yes" and the most deserving center fielder available. Gonzalez will be far down the list of corner outfielders/DH's when he becomes eligible. Way down the list.

[J W]

I think Igor should just retire now and put this whole argument to rest :laugh .

If he winds up being elected, I say it would be a fair comparison to when certain certain sluggers from the 30's were elected, who may not cut it for many people.

As of right now, Gonzalez gets lumped into a group with Jose Canseco and George Foster. But here are the most statistically similar players to Gonzalez through age 33:

- Albert Belle
- Ken Griffey Jr.
- Duke Snider
- Jim Rice
- Orlando Cepeda
- Jeff Bagwell
- Barry Bonds
- Sammy Sosa
- Jose Canseco
- Frank Robinson

...not a bad list, really. Juan-Gone's biggest thing going for him is that he started playing at age 19. I cannot stress enough the importance of playing well early in age, to someone's HOF case. Gonzalez has the leeway in this day and age to hide himself behind the DH position and collect pretty much anything he wants... 500 HRs... 500 doubles... 1500 strikeouts (well)... it all comes down to how much he wants it.

Gonzalez is not Dale Murphy, and he is also outside my cutline. I'll keep his door open though if he can produce to age 40.

[Windy City Fan]

That's a pretty good list actually. Everyone there is a HOFer (Snider, Robinson, Cepeda), a future HOFer (Bonds, Sosa, Bagwell, Griffey) or a borderline canidate with a reasonable argument (Rice, Belle). I'd put 8 or 9 of the ten in the hall, with the lone exception being Canseco (I continually waver on Rice).

[Brad Harris]

WCF

Your thoughts on that list of similar players seem to mirror my own.

Re: Belle and Rice, however. Their cases are similar, but I look at Belle's sudden departure from the game as premature since his skills were otherwise in tact. Rice, on the other hand, simply declined as he aged. In short, if not for the debilitating arthritis in his hip, Belle's career would easily have eclipsed Rice's and not been comparative to it had he been permitted to age normally. I suppose that's why I've got Belle slotted just ahead of Rice.

[four tool]

Rice doesn't cut it as a hall of famer. I saw him play and agree that he's a better than average hitter, but not a great hitter--Ted Williams said that and he should know. Also, hall of fame for a hitter who couldn't maintain a .300 average with Fenway as his home park? I don't think so.(Yaz is the lone exception to that rule and he got to 3000 hits).

[dgarza]

Rice doesn't cut it as a hall of famer. I saw him play and agree that he's a better than average hitter, but not a great hitter--Ted Williams said that and he should know. Also, hall of fame for a hitter who couldn't maintain a .300 average with Fenway as his home park? I don't think so.(Yaz is the lone exception to that rule and he got to 3000 hits).
Hitting alone, Rice looks better than Yaz on season avgs.
But I don't want to get off track.

If Juan was retired, he'd have the highest AVG for all major non-HOF sluggers.
I'd have no problem with him in at this point. It doesn't seem like his career numbers have been milked yet. They are all pretty much competetive years. The last few years have not been bad, even if not typical. That looks good to me, aslong as he knows when is when, like this year.

[Windy City Fan]

WCF

Your thoughts on that list of similar players seem to mirror my own.

Re: Belle and Rice, however. Their cases are similar, but I look at Belle's sudden departure from the game as premature since his skills were otherwise in tact. Rice, on the other hand, simply declined as he aged. In short, if not for the debilitating arthritis in his hip, Belle's career would easily have eclipsed Rice's and not been comparative to it had he been permitted to age normally. I suppose that's why I've got Belle slotted just ahead of Rice.

I completely agree that Belle has a better case than Rice. However, I think their actual chances of making it into the hall are about the same since Belle is one of baseball's all time jerks. If he was a warm and cuddly figure (i.e. Kirby Puckett) then he gets in on the first ballot.

On Rice I constantly change my mind. One day he is a HOFer, the next I'm not so sure.

[nightal]

I'm on the fence about Juan, but Murphy should be in if Juan even gets seriously considered!


Short and to the point. And totally correct :)

[micsmith]

From 1976-1989, Murphy had 6749 At Bats, which is right around how many At Bats Juan Gonzalez has now (6555). Murphy played for another four years, but he really didn't pile much more onto his career stat totals. Here is a comparison of the career totals of Gonzalez and Murphy through 1989:

Runs: Murphy (1065); Juan (1061)
Hits: Murphy (1820); Juan (1936)
2B: Murphy (292); Juan (388)
3B: Murphy (37); Juan (25)
HR: Murphy (354); Juan (434)
RBI: Murphy (1088); Juan (1404)
TB: Murphy (3248); Juan (3676)
BB: Murphy (871); Juan (457)
SO: Murphy (1497); Juan (1273)
SB: Murphy (151); Juan (26)
Avg: Murphy (.270); Juan (.295)

I'm not sure if Gonzalez deserved his MVP awards of if he is a future Hall of Famer (I think he's on pace right now, but he needs a few more healthy seasons). But it's clear that Juan is a much better hitter than Murphy was. He has more hits in fewer at bats and a substantially higher batting average with far fewer strikeouts. There is not doubt that he is a better power hitter as well. Murphy's advantages are in his baserunning but not his fielding. Murphy's career fielding average is almost identical to Juan's. Murphy was an all-star 7 times (Juan only 3 times), which indicates that he was a better player relative to who he was playing against, but it doesn't mean that he was a better player than Juan.

Despite two MVP awards I don't think Murphy is a Hall of Famer. But if Juan can only get healthy and play a few more full seasons - they don't even have to be great seasons - he could pad his career numbers enough to look like a certain Hall of Famer. He turns 35 next month, which means he might have two or three more good seasons in him. He needs about 100 more home runs and 300 RBI to be in the top 20 of those two career categories. If he can get close, I don't see how you could keep him out of the Hall.

[DoubleX]

From 1976-1989, Murphy had 6749 At Bats, which is right around how many At Bats Juan Gonzalez has now (6555). Murphy played for another four years, but he really didn't pile much more onto his career stat totals. Here is a comparison of the career totals of Gonzalez and Murphy through 1989:

Runs: Murphy (1065); Juan (1061)
Hits: Murphy (1820); Juan (1936)
2B: Murphy (292); Juan (388)
3B: Murphy (37); Juan (25)
HR: Murphy (354); Juan (434)
RBI: Murphy (1088); Juan (1404)
TB: Murphy (3248); Juan (3676)
BB: Murphy (871); Juan (457)
SO: Murphy (1497); Juan (1273)
SB: Murphy (151); Juan (26)
Avg: Murphy (.270); Juan (.295)

I'm not sure if Gonzalez deserved his MVP awards of if he is a future Hall of Famer (I think he's on pace right now, but he needs a few more healthy seasons). But it's clear that Juan is a much better hitter than Murphy was. He has more hits in fewer at bats and a substantially higher batting average with far fewer strikeouts. There is not doubt that he is a better power hitter as well. Murphy's advantages are in his baserunning but not his fielding. Murphy's career fielding average is almost identical to Juan's. Murphy was an all-star 7 times (Juan only 3 times), which indicates that he was a better player relative to who he was playing against, but it doesn't mean that he was a better player than Juan.

Despite two MVP awards I don't think Murphy is a Hall of Famer. But if Juan can only get healthy and play a few more full seasons - they don't even have to be great seasons - he could pad his career numbers enough to look like a certain Hall of Famer. He turns 35 next month, which means he might have two or three more good seasons in him. He needs about 100 more home runs and 300 RBI to be in the top 20 of those two career categories. If he can get close, I don't see how you could keep him out of the Hall.

A few things to note that may distinguish Murphy from Gonzalez for HoF purposes.

First, Murphy played a ton of CF, a much more demanding position with lower offensive expectations than RF and LF. After the five or six all-time great CF's (Mays, Cobb, Mantle, DiMaggio, Speaker, and Snider), there is a huge drop off in the quality of all-time CF (with the exception of Griffey Jr., whose career is after Murphy's). After this group, the offensive statistics of most of the CF in the Hall are not nearly as impressive as the stastics of the corner OFs in the Hall. So the Hall of Fame standard for Murphy is considerably different than for Juan Gonzalez who is competing against dozens of all-time great corner OFs with gaudy offensive stats.

Second, the disparity in power numbers between Murphy and Gonzalez is misleading because of the era in which the two played. Gonzalez hit his stride during the homer happy mid 90's - today. Murphy was at his best during the homer deficient 80's when hitting 36 or 37 homeruns was enough to lead the league (which was the case when Murphy led the league in '84 and '85). Both Murphy and Gonzalez have led the league in homeruns twice, but Murphy finished 9 times in the top ten, whereas Gonzalez has done it 7 times (and will be hard-pressed to do it twice more to match Murphy).

Third, it's very, very misleading to say their a push defensively. Again, Murphy played the far more demanding CF and was a 5 time gold glover.

Murphy suffered through a disastrous decline in his early 30's the easily make one forget just how dominant and good he was throughout the 80's. I believe if Murphy had hit those 2 extra homeruns to get to 400, his candidacy would be getting much more support. I don't think anyone would argue that Gonzalez was the best player of the 90's, but I think a plausible argument could be made that Murphy was the best player of the 80's, which shows that Murphy was the more dominant and standout player among his peers.

[four tool]

DoubleXX,

That's it in a nutshell, counting numbers always need to be compared to league averages, etc. The more anyone looks, the more Murphy rises above Juan at least at this point in Juan's career.

[Windy City Fan]

While I am taking a second look at Murphy and his hall canidacy, I would never say he was the best player of the 80's. Mike Schimdt, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Ryne Sandburg, Cal Ripken, and Ozzie Smith are all ahead of him as position players. I'd probably rank Carlton Fisk and maybe Gary Carter ahead of him as well.

[DoubleX]

While I am taking a second look at Murphy and his hall canidacy, I would never say he was the best player of the 80's. Mike Schimdt, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Ryne Sandburg, Cal Ripken, and Ozzie Smith are all ahead of him as position players. I'd probably rank Carlton Fisk and maybe Gary Carter ahead of him as well.

I wouldn't say Murphy was the best player of the 80's either, but I believe he deserves to be part of the best player of the 80's discussion more than Gonzalez does for best player of the 90's.

[Freakshow]

When you look at context, Murphy is clearly ahead of JuanGon. Murphy has large leads in Black ink (31-17) and Gray Ink (147-105).

Top 6 years in OPS+ are very similar:

Dale 156-151-150-149-142-135
Juan 169-150-149-147-141-134

Murphy added dimensions of Fielding, baserunning, durability and leadership that Gonzalez could only dream of.

Unless JuanGon can come back and add a finishing kick to his career, it's not really close.

Win Shares tells a similar story, although I don't have the exact numbers with me now.

[Steffo]

IMHO, JuaGo will make the ballot, but will be a Lou Whitaker type of guy and fall of the ballot and miss being elected by the Vetrans Comittee, people will forget about him even though he is better than some already elected into the HOF..

[csh19792001]

IMHO, JuaGo will make the ballot, but will be a Lou Whitaker type of guy and fall of the ballot and miss being elected by the Vetrans Comittee, people will forget about him even though he is better than some already elected into the HOF..

Pluses-
One of the best RBI men in a long, long time. (where is he alltime in RBI/game?)
Good BA and SLG
Pretty good arm/range
Good postseason record

Minuses-
Basically everything else.
K's 3 times as much as he walked, atrocious OBP.
Poor speed/terrible SB numbers
RBI's are a stat as much of opportunity as anything- his career BA with RISP is actually LOWER than his career BA, which reinforces this idea (he had more opportunities/players on base than average, and he almost always chose to swing away).

[HDH]

Regardless if he gets elected, he won't paticipate unless the following conditions are met:

Elected 1st year, 1st ballot, #1 on the ballot.
The uniform of the day is acceptable to him.
The walls are moved in.

[Mariano Rivera]

Don Mattingly was one of the best baseball players of the 1980's. :clapping

[al-lang]

Lively debate. Very good points and analysis by all. However, I think the point is moot, because Juan will hang around and DH until he gets 500 bombs which means automatic indunction. He's at 439 right now, he's only 35, and should eclipse the magical 500 by the age of 40. He will end up in Cleveland this year, and add another 15 to 20 to his career total...

[Honus Wagner Rules]

If you were to ask people in 1999 about the HoF chances of Juan Gonzales, Frank Thomas, and Griffey EVERYONE would have said they will fly into the HoF. These three won five MVP awards in the from 1993-1998. Now because of injuries and reduced production all three are somewhat iffy. :confused:

[Cougar]

Thomas and Griffey aren't iffy; they're locks.

For that matter Gonzo's still more likely than not right now; if he manages a couple more decent seasons he'll be a lock.

[abacab]

"It's never iffy if it's Griffey! ..... That blows." - Kenny Mayne

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Thomas and Griffey aren't iffy; they're locks.

For that matter Gonzo's still more likely than not right now; if he manages a couple more decent seasons he'll be a lock.
Let me rephrase my words. I still believe Thomas and Griffey will get in but I don't think they are locks. Locks are 1st ballot HoFers and I'm not sure that they are. Of course both stll have a few more years left for them to strngthen their candidacies.

[csh19792001]

Let me rephrase my words. I still believe Thomas and Griffey will get in but I don't think they are locks. Locks are 1st ballot HoFers and I'm not sure that they are. Of course both stll have a few more years left for them to strngthen their candidacies.

Of consequence?
According to The Baseball Encyclopedia (2004) Juan Gonzalez has the highest RBI/150 games (126) of anyone in QUITE awhile. They break it down by era.

RBI's are overrated and team dependent; but it's hard to ignore that kind of production for one's team, I think.

Sidebar (leaders for each era)
1876-1892 Sam Thompson (139)
1893-1900 Ed Delahanty (120)
1901-1920 Nap Lajoie (97)
1921-42 Lou Gehrig (138)
1943-60 Ted Williams (120)
1961-72 Hank Aaron (105)
1973-87 Jim Rice (104)
1988-2003- Juan Gonzalez (126)

Of note- steroid user Blarry Bonds isn't even in the top 10 in his own era.

[RuthMayBond]

Of consequence?
According to The Baseball Encyclopedia (2004) Juan Gonzalez has the highest RBI/150 games (126) of anyone in QUITE awhile. They break it down by era.

RBI's are overrated and team dependent; but it's hard to ignore that kind of production for one's team, I think.

Sidebar (leaders for each era)
1876-1892 Sam Thompson (139)
1893-1900 Ed Delahanty (120)
1901-1920 Nap Lajoie (97)
1921-42 Lou Gehrig (138)
1943-60 Ted Williams (120)
1961-72 Hank Aaron (105)
1973-87 Jim Rice (104)
1988-2003- Juan Gonzalez (126)

Of note- steroid user Blarry Bonds isn't even in the top 10 in his own era.Walks will do that, brainiac :laugh :laugh

[ElHalo]

Walks will do that, brainiac :laugh :laugh

Not my fault he decides not to try to swing at pitches out of the strike zone.

[RuthMayBond]

Not my fault he decides not to try to swing at pitches out of the strike zone.And it's not Barry's "fault" that he takes a 1.000 OBP with a walk rather than something a lot less with pitches out of the zone. Maybe you should be his batting coach since you know so much more :laugh

[ElHalo]

And it's not Barry's "fault" that he takes a 1.000 OBP with a walk rather than something a lot less with pitches out of the zone. Maybe you should be his batting coach since you know so much more :laugh

Wouldn't begin to claim that I know more about hitting than Barry Bonds. Just chew on this: Since his offensive explosion in 2001, Barry has no R titles, no RBI titles, and only two top 10 RBI finishes. So ask yourself: For a guy who's OBP and SLG have been absolutely blowing away the competition for four years, how truly valuable is Barry?

[RuthMayBond]

Wouldn't begin to claim that I know more about hitting than Barry Bonds. Just chew on this: Since his offensive explosion in 2001, Barry has no R titles, no RBI titles, and only two top 10 RBI finishes. So ask yourself: For a guy who's OBP and SLG have been absolutely blowing away the competition for four years, how truly valuable is Barry?He wasn't bad in '02. As for the Yankee definition of winning the World Series, you would say he has no value. As for a definition of contributing towards winning games (especially hard given the lack of lineup help), he's been pretty valuable. How else do you think the Giants almost led the league in scoring last year?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

:rolleyes: Wouldn't begin to claim that I know more about hitting than Barry Bonds. Just chew on this: Since his offensive explosion in 2001, Barry has no R titles, no RBI titles, and only two top 10 RBI finishes. So ask yourself: For a guy who's OBP and SLG have been absolutely blowing away the competition for four years, how truly valuable is Barry?

Mickey Mantle only had four 100 RBI seasons in his career. I guess he wasn't that valuable either. :rolleyes:

[csh19792001]

Not my fault he decides not to try to swing at pitches out of the strike zone.

Yeah-
Every pitch even AN INCH off the plate, even with runners in scoring position.

"Take the walk EVERY TIME"- what a brillant tautology. Maybe if he'd swung a couple of times or not sat out a few of those games, they would have made the playoffs, eh, RMB? :lookitup

[RuthMayBond]

Yeah-
Every pitch even AN INCH off the plate, even with runners in scoring position.I'm impressed with your measuring device and your capacity to watch every pitch to Bonds :laugh

[csh19792001]

:rolleyes:

Mickey Mantle only had four 100 RBI seasons in his career. I guess he wasn't that valuable either. :rolleyes:

Totally different run scoring environment, Honus.

[west coast orange and black]

If you were to ask people in 1999 about the HoF chances of Juan Gonzales, Frank Thomas, and Griffey EVERYONE would have said they will fly into the HoF. These three won five MVP awards in the from 1993-1998. Now because of injuries and reduced production all three are somewhat iffy. :confused:
i almost agree with you, wags. i gotta go with gonzales and thomas being iffy and griffey with better chance than that.
as for "hall of fame lock": this means, to me, being a first ballot entry.

[west coast orange and black]

Not my fault he decides not to try to swing at pitches out of the strike zone.
no one is blaming you, elhalo. but when bonds is being pitched to, many of the pitches can not be hit with even a shovel.
the ones that are reachable with a shovel are sometimes not worth swinging at, as they'd probably result in a popup or simple groundout.
as far as runs scored, pujols had 133 (154 g) last season, and bonds followed closely behind with 129 (147g). again, bonds was not on top, but second ain't all that bad.

[west coast orange and black]

Wouldn't begin to claim that I know more about hitting than Barry Bonds. Just chew on this: Since his offensive explosion in 2001, Barry has no R titles, no RBI titles, and only two top 10 RBI finishes. So ask yourself: For a guy who's OBP and SLG have been absolutely blowing away the competition for four years, how truly valuable is Barry?
there is only one recipient for runs scored, batting and rbi titles. that bonds is not that person hardly discounts his importance and value.

[west coast orange and black]

Yeah-
Every pitch even AN INCH off the plate, even with runners in scoring position.

"Take the walk EVERY TIME"- what a brillant tautology. Maybe if he'd swung a couple of times or not sat out a few of those games, they would have made the playoffs, eh, RMB? :lookitup
since when does bonds take pitches in rbi situations that are just one inch off the plate? no way does this happen. you must think that a major league ballplayer would rather walk than collect an rbi. after scoring runs, this is what they live for. and you must not be watching many giants games.
even so, his rbi per ab ratio was the best in the bigs last season. :lookitup
as for "sitting out": he played more games than any other giant last season :lookitup, and did so on two pained legs.

bottomline: somehow, someone along the way convinced you that bonds is not interested in winning. this is false for every major leaguer worth a nickel.

[west coast orange and black]

RBI's are overrated and team dependent; but it's hard to ignore that kind of production for one's team, I think.

Of note- steroid user Blarry Bonds isn't even in the top 10 in his own era.
first you claim that rbi are overrated, then you offer a list.
anyway, i guess the sporting news, because it named bonds the 90s player of the decade doesn't know jack.
(and my bet is that he will be named the player of the 00s, as well.)

[GiambiJuice]

He had some dominant years, winning two MVPs. Do you think his inability to stay healthy later in his career and/or the alligations in Canseco's book will hurt his chances?

BATTING STATS:

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/players/playerpage/7647

[Senor Octobre]

Most people will say no, but as I've got relatively low standards for the HOF I'd say yes. He has some pretty nice credentials: 2 MVPs, 11 seasons of dominance (more or less), 430+ HR, 1400+ RBI, career .295 AVG, career .904 OPS. If he could stay healthy for 3 or 4 years (big if), crack 2000 hits and 450-500 HR, I'd say he has a good shot. I say he's in.

[julusnc]

If he does make it it will take at least 8-10 years after he is eligible to make the HOF.

It is agreed upon that one of his MVP's was undeserved and yes I think the steroid issue may plague his election.

[skeletor]

His early stats, certainly warrant attention...His later ones, do not
due to misc injuries, and tainted-whining-attitudes..If he does get
it, he'll be a long shot...then why not similar players ? who are denied
the honor ?

For one for certain, Juan will probably get zero votes from BB writers
in Detroit and Cleveland......During his stint with the Tigers, he was
a real headcase...and a cancer in the clubhouse..( 2000 )Totally
selfish...

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Well, he's been better than a few HoF outfielders (Chick Hafey for one). Right now, I'm undecided.

[Brad Harris]

Well somebody has to be below the induction line when it comes to 1990's corner outfielders. Igor should be good company for Maris and Murphy as the only 2-time MVPs not in Cooperstown. (Of course, Murphy should be in.)

[GiambiJuice]

For one for certain, Juan will probably get zero votes from BB writers
in Detroit and Cleveland......During his stint with the Tigers, he was
a real headcase...and a cancer in the clubhouse..( 2000 )Totally
selfish...

Gonzalez's one season in Cleveland (not including this year in which he has 1 AB) was GREAT!


G- 140
AB- 532
H- 173
R- 97
HR- 35
RBI- 140
OBP- .370
SLG- .590
AVG- .325

[MasonDixon]

I think he's borderline. I'm not really sure if I'd vote for him. I wouldn't argue against him; he definitely has the credentials. I just wonder how many outfielders from the 90s you can induct.

[GiambiJuice]

I think he's borderline. I'm not really sure if I'd vote for him. I wouldn't argue against him; he definitely has the credentials. I just wonder how many outfielders from the 90s you can induct.

These are the 90's outfielders that i would induct: (let me know if I'm leaving anyone out. Or if you disagree with any of these).

Bonds
Griffey
Sosa
Manny
Vlad (a bit early, but he should make it easily)
Rickey henderson (80's-90's)
Sheffield
Juan Gonzalez
Biggio (2B/CF)

I think the jury's still out on the following players (Depending on what they do the next few years:

Andruw Jones
Jim Edmonds
Bobby Abreu
Garret Anderson (probably has no chance)

[Cougar]

Very, very borderline.

1. Great hitting stats -- .295, 434, 1404 through 2004 (and likely 2005). That's a HOF line. But -- only 1936 hits.

2. Secondary skills (fielding, baserunning, plate discipline, durability, leadership, character) just about non-existent.

3. Two MVPs, but both of them somewhat dubious; RBI determined. Shockingly (revealingly?), only three All-Star selections.

4. Benefitted from huge hitting era, favorable ballpark, perhaps performance enhancements.

Gonzo seems like a guy who really needed to make a milestone, or at least come close. Maybe you can forgive him that if he had 2000 hits, but he's short of even that. If he doesn't come back and have at least one more decent season to get to 2000 hits and 450 HR, I think he misses the cut.

[Cougar]

These are the 90's outfielders that i would induct: (let me know if I'm leaving anyone out. Or if you disagree with any of these).
...
Biggio (2B/CF)


Biggio never played OF regularly until 2003. And don't forget, he started out as a catcher; he caught for his first four seasons and made a All-Star team as a backstop. A truly unique player.

[GiambiJuice]

Biggio never played OF regularly until 2003. And don't forget, he started out as a catcher; he caught for his first four seasons and made a All-Star team as a backstop. A truly unique player.

Good point. ;)

[MasonDixon]

These are the 90's outfielders that i would induct: (let me know if I'm leaving anyone out. Or if you disagree with any of these).

Bonds
Griffey
Sosa
Manny
Vlad (a bit early, but he should make it easily)
Rickey henderson (80's-90's)
Sheffield
Juan Gonzalez
Biggio (2B/CF)

I think the jury's still out on the following players (Depending on what they do the next few years:

Andruw Jones
Jim Edmonds
Bobby Abreu
Garret Anderson (probably has no chance)


Well I'd personally induct Belle. There aren't as many outfielders as I thought, but that's still a lot. Compare that to how many 1980s outfielders are getting inducted.

[MasonDixon]

Very, very borderline.

1. Great hitting stats -- .295, 434, 1404 through 2004 (and likely 2005). That's a HOF line. But -- only 1936 hits.

2. Secondary skills (fielding, baserunning, plate discipline, durability, leadership, character) just about non-existent.

3. Two MVPs, but both of them somewhat dubious; RBI determined. Shockingly (revealingly?), only three All-Star selections.

4. Benefitted from huge hitting era, favorable ballpark, perhaps performance enhancements.

Gonzo seems like a guy who really needed to make a milestone, or at least come close. Maybe you can forgive him that if he had 2000 hits, but he's short of even that. If he doesn't come back and have at least one more decent season to get to 2000 hits and 450 HR, I think he misses the cut.

I never saw Gonzalez play much, but his range factor reveals him to be at least an average outfielder, if not above average. Can anyone who's seen him play comment on his defense?

[Cougar]

These are the 90's outfielders that i would induct: (let me know if I'm leaving anyone out. Or if you disagree with any of these).
...
Sheffield


This is off-topic, but I don't know if Sheffield has the HOF 100% sewn up yet. If his career ended today, he's not automatic.

In fact, superficially, his numbers bear more than a little resemblance to Gonzalez's. (Sheffield walks much more, and has more defensive value.)

[Cougar]

Well I'd personally induct Belle. There aren't as many outfielders as I thought, but that's still a lot. Compare that to how many 1980s outfielders are getting inducted.

I think I'm with you on Belle, although I'm disinclined to go much out of my way to do him any favors. It'll be hard for Albert to get much of a bandwagon going.

[Cougar]

I never saw Gonzalez play much, but his range factor reveals him to be at least an average outfielder, if not above average. Can anyone who's seen him play comment on his defense?

Indifferent, careless. He's a good outfielder when he's motivated and healthy; he just hasn't been for years.

[GiambiJuice]

Youre absolutely right about Belle. In fact I myself have stated many times in BF that he should be elected. Can't believe I forgot about him! :o :o

[Barnstormer]

Youre absolutely right about Belle. In fact I myself have stated many times in BF that he should be elected. Can't believe I forgot about him! :o :o

2 weeks ago (June 23, 2005):

Albert Belle, the former Indians, White Sox and Orioles slugger, will be inducted Friday into the Louisiana Sports Hall of Fame.

But Belle, who earned a reputation of being surly to fans and many members of the media during his 12-year career, has his eye on reaching baseball's Hall of Fame now that he is eligible.

"It has been five years and I think the people who vote have had some time to think about it," the five-time All-Star said in a rare interview Wednesday. "I am sure there are probably some who are still upset with me. Some may have changed their minds. Some people may be taking a second look. But if I don't get voted in that is not going to upset me. Life goes on."

"When I quit playing [after the 2000 season with Baltimore], I never really thought about [the Hall of Fame]," Belle said. "But ever since the steroid controversy has come about, everybody is kind of taking notice of my numbers. And everybody has their theories as far as who they think has taken steroids. I think everybody knows I have never taken steroids.

"Even though I played for a short period of time (roughly 10 full seasons), my numbers are pretty good. In my opinion, I should have two MVP awards."

[Senor Octobre]

I think the jury's still out on the following players (Depending on what they do the next few years:

Andruw Jones
Jim Edmonds
Bobby Abreu
Garret Anderson (probably has no chance)

Two other guys I always thought had a good shot at Cooperstown were Shawn Green and Brian Giles, up until these last two years anyways. They still truck along but they seem to have lost alot of steam (Green with injuries, Giles with Petco Park, aka Hell on Earth for Power hitters). Both'll probably end up with between 300-400 HRs and probably 1,000 RBI more or less, both of which seem to have turned into average career numbers with the 90's offensive explosion. But then again with good luck, one, the other, or both could turn into Rafael Palmeiro for the next 4 or 5 years (unfortunately thats unlikely). Also guys like Larry Walker, Bernie Williams and Luis Gonzalez fall into a category of "borderline/probably won't make it guys" (Bernie and Larry have a decent chance, but Gonzo probably isn't so lucky).

[Cougar]

Two other guys I always thought had a good shot at Cooperstown were Shawn Green and Brian Giles, up until these last two years anyways. They still truck along but they seem to have lost alot of steam (Green with injuries, Giles with Petco Park, aka Hell on Earth for Power hitters). Both'll probably end up with between 300-400 HRs and probably 1,000 RBI more or less, both of which seem to have turned into average career numbers with the 90's offensive explosion. But then again with good luck, one, the other, or both could turn into Rafael Palmeiro for the next 4 or 5 years (unfortunately thats unlikely). Also guys like Larry Walker, Bernie Williams and Luis Gonzalez fall into a category of "borderline/probably won't make it guys" (Bernie and Larry have a decent chance, but Gonzo probably isn't so lucky).

Good catch, especially on Bernie W. and Larry W. -- I think they'll both get a fairly sympathetic hearing and may well make it someday.

[It's Over The Wall!]

Hard To Say Now. Time Will Show.








If He Does Make It It Won't Be In The First Year Of Eligability.

[The Commissioner]

Once again, I'm in the minority here, but I definitely view Gonzalez as a Hall of Famer. I wonder how much his lack of media exposure may have contributed to this greater perception of him not being Hall of Fame caliber?

Then again, a lot of whether he actually makes the Hall or not may have to do with what does or doesn't come out about steroids and him. His lingering injuries do pose questions as far as that is concerned and could prove to be a huge factor.

[Blackout]

Biggio never played OF regularly until 2003. And don't forget, he started out as a catcher; he caught for his first four seasons and made a All-Star team as a backstop. A truly unique player.

and now is the sole owner of the HBP record :clapping

[mac195]

Juan Gone isn't really even close to being a HOFer. He didn't deserve either MVP, and his career HR and RBI totals are wildly inflated by the era and park he played in. Walker's numbers are juiced as well of course, but he has been a first rate defensive RFer. Larry is the much better candidate of the two.

[The Commissioner]

Juan Gone isn't really even close to being a HOFer.

Not even close? What more could he have done over the course of his career to be considered close?

[Zito75]

Not even close? What more could he have done over the course of his career to be considered close?

Stayed healthy & maybe helped to win a Championship... :D

[The Commissioner]

Stayed healthy & maybe helped to win a Championship... :D

Hey, he certainly did his part. He helped lead Texas to three division titles and Cleveland to one. His 8 homers and 15 RBI in 62 post season at bats isn't too shabby either. There was just no way he could be expected to have single handedly made those Texas teams beat the Yankees or lifted the 2001 Indians over that Mariners squad.

[mac195]

Not even close? What more could he have done over the course of his career to be considered close?

Assuming that he is washed up at this point, Igor amounts to a good (but not really great) hitting corner outfielder, with a relatively short career, who was nothing special in the field. There are dozens of players outside the HOF who meet that description.

[The Commissioner]

Assuming that he is washed up at this point, Igor amounts to a good (but not really great) hitting corner outfielder, with a relatively short career, who was nothing special in the field. There are dozens of players outside the HOF who meet that description.

I disagree with your assessment of him a "good" rather than "great" hitter. However, assuming that's accurate, aren't those dozens of other players along with Gonzalez also at least "close" to being a Hall of Famer? I can understand if you feel that Gonzalez isn't a worthy Hall of Famer, but is he really that far away from being in consideration?

[mac195]

If he is done now, I think he is pretty far from consideration. There are a horde of eligible outfielders... Rice, Dawson, Murphy, Parker, Smith, Wynn, Lynn, Minoso, Jack Clark... who are clearly better, yet not in the HOF.

[GiambiJuice]

, Bernie Williams and Luis Gonzalez fall into a category of "borderline/probably won't make it guys" (Bernie and Larry have a decent chance, but Gonzo probably isn't so lucky).

Take it from a Yankee fan: Bernie Williams has NO CHANCE at the HOF. He was a nice player for a few years, .300 career avg, but just doesn't have the overall numbers to justify it.

Louis Gonzalez has even less of a case. He had one fluke/steroids? year. Hit 57 Homeruns!!!! Come on. It's like a big joke. Whom will we elect next, Brady Anderson???

[Senor Octobre]

Whom will we elect next, Brady Anderson???

Wow, I'm know you're joking but still, no comparison here. Brady Anderson had 1661 Hits, 210 HR, 761 RBI, .256 AVG, .425 SLG, .787 OPS, in 15 seasons. And then theres this...

1993, 13 HR, 66 RBI, .262 AVG
1994, 12, 48, .263
1995, 16, 64, .262
1996, 50, 110, .297
1997, 18, 73, .288
1998, 18, 51, .236

You decide for yourself what this indicates.

Luis Gonzalez... in 15+ seasons, 2146 Hits, 303 HR, 1222 RBI, .287 AVG, 955 BB, 477 2B, 1180 Runs, .371 OBP, .488 SLG, .859 OPS, and he still has some gas in the tank. As for the "Fluke/Steroids" season...

1998, 23, 71, .267
1999, 26, 111, .336
2000, 31, 114, .311
2001, 57, 142, .325
2002, 28, 103, .288
2003, 26, 104, .304

Yes, that 2001 season was a tad out of the ordinary to say the least, but at least he showed increasing power that culminated in that year. Personally I don't feel that he juiced, but he more than likely could have. But like I said in my previous post, he has even less of a chance than Bernie.

[GiambiJuice]

But like I said in my previous post, he has even less of a chance than Bernie.

What's less than zero? :laugh :laugh

But seriously, If Bernie and/or Gonzo get in, there are probably at least 50 players you would have to include as well, starting with RON SANTO.

a few active examples (off the top of my head) that i would consider are at or near the level of the two players previously mentioned:

Tino Martinez, Robin Ventura, Moises Alou, Reggie Sanders (btw he just became the 10th player ever with 250 HR and 250 SB)

I haven't looked up the stats but I'm guessing they are comparable.

[Barnstormer]

What's less than zero? :laugh :laugh

But seriously, If Bernie and/or Gonzo get in, there are probably at least 50 players you would have to include as well, starting with RON SANTO.



The wierd thing for me is that their chances to a large extent depend on how they do in their late 30s.

Take Sheffield, Gonzo, Jim Thome. All 34-36 years old, all with 400-450 HRs. From the discussion on this board, none of them are guarantees if they retire today. But they would be if they play 5 more years (heck, even 2-3) at a decent level, to get 500 HRs or whatever. I say this is wierd because it doesn't mean they become better ballplayers if they do that. Just more durable. We've most likely already seen their prime. So it's strange that their HOF chances center on whether or not they can manage to hit 20 home runs for a couple more years.

[mac195]

I think Sheffield is a cut above the other guys. He is already in.

[dgarza]

Bonds
Griffey
Sosa
Manny
Vlad (a bit early, but he should make it easily)
Rickey henderson (80's-90's)
Sheffield
Juan Gonzalez
Biggio (2B/CF)


Andruw Jones
Jim Edmonds
Bobby Abreu
Garret Anderson (probably has no chance)
&
Larry Walker
Luis Gonzalez
Dante Bichette
Andre Dawson
Tim Raines
Albert Belle
Joe Carter
Brett Butler
Kenny Lofton
Bobby Bonilla
Darryl Strawberry
Bernie Williams
Jose Canseco


will/should've get serious looks

[Fuzzy Bear]

Juan Gone isn't really even close to being a HOFer. He didn't deserve either MVP, and his career HR and RBI totals are wildly inflated by the era and park he played in. Walker's numbers are juiced as well of course, but he has been a first rate defensive RFer. Larry is the much better candidate of the two.

1. Gonzalez is, at the very least, CLOSE to being a HOFer. You don't rack up his stats and awards without getting close.

2. Whether or not he DESERVED the two MVPs he won, the fact remains that he WON them.

3. Gonzalez was a decent defensive outfielder early in his career.

Juan Gone won't get much love from the writers; he may end up "one and done". But if he makes it through the first ballot, he'll gain support as time passes.

The reason he'll gain support is that, over time, people will forget a lot of the negatives that make up his image and focus more on his batting stats, which are HOF-worthy. They will also focus on the fact that he's a two-time MVP; there will be no discussion of whether or not he deserved those awards.

I don't think he'll be voted in by the writers, but he may well be voted in by a later Vets Committee.

[baseball junkie]

Gonzalez is the Jim Rice of the 1990s.

[mtortolero]

Has someone noted how similar looks Juan Gone to Chuck Klein?
Both were around 17 seasons as corner outfielders with average defensive skills playing in their prime in great hitters parks and missing a lot of time by injuries.
They are similars in games ( 1689 vs 1753) , PA (6556 vs 6486), runs (1061 vs 1168), hits (1936 vs 2076), OPS (922 vs 904) OPS+ (133 vs 137)
Klein have 1 MVP and 2 times second place and Juan Gone have 2 MVP.
Klein looks as the better hitter (.320 vs .295 by JG) and Juan Gone as the better slugger (.561 slg vs .541 by CK).

[brett]

Juan comes up short right now but I'll give a few points each way.

Negative: he made a lot of outs and had few walks and not a great on base percentage for a dangerous hitter.

Negative: his RBIs are inflated because he didn't walk, and because he played for a good offense in Texas.

Negative: I don't think he should have won either MVP award. He may have looked the best in the triple crown categories.

Positive: Contrary to popular belief, Arlington was not a GREAT hitter's ballpark. It was right in the middle of the pack for the American League.

Positive: His MVP awards were suprises to me, but they were not jokes. He had top seasons and I could see people voting for him.

Big negative: For a guy whose big thing was run production, 1404 RBIs is not going to do it. Also he had a pitiful 1061 runs through last year. For a run producer playing in an offensive era who isn't a plus on defense or baserunning or drawing walks, I would want to see a minimum of 1500 RBI's and at least resonable (1300+) runs to START consideration.

If Juan had won 1 (deserved) gold glove
If he had drawn 60+ walks a year or
If he had been a plus baserunner

I would say yes.

He has none of the pluses, so I would expect a lot more.

Larry Walker, buy the way, was the best defensive rightfielder in the game for a decade, and in the estimation of many, the best ALL AROUND baserunner in the National League when healthy. I think he falls short (and I'm from CO and a Larry Walker fan).

[KCGHOST]

I wouldn't elect Juan Gone to a post as dog catcher. He basically retired in place at age 32 (just ask the fans of the Rangers, Royals, and Indians). In 17 seasons he didn't total 1700 games or 2000 hits. In his 17 seasons he only ran up an RCAA of 274. That's constitutes a very nice career, but well short of HoF quality. HoF OFers usually have 350+ and 500 is more like it.

Albert Belle is a superior candidate despite only playing in 12 season (1500+ games). His RCAA of 379 is much more like an HoFer. If you like peak value, Belle has it in spades. His problem is that with such a short career his counting numbers just aren't up to the mark. Oh, and alienating every member of the BBWAA won't help.

Larry Walker has a 536 RCAA which is superb, but will get discounted due to Planet Coors and low counting numbers (he missed a ton of time due to injury). He could well be become one of only three inactive players with 500+ RCAA not to get in the HoF (Pete Browning and Dick Allen).

[Fuzzy Bear]

I wouldn't elect Juan Gone to a post as dog catcher. He basically retired in place at age 32 (just ask the fans of the Rangers, Royals, and Indians). In 17 seasons he didn't total 1700 games or 2000 hits. In his 17 seasons he only ran up an RCAA of 274. That's constitutes a very nice career, but well short of HoF quality. HoF OFers usually have 350+ and 500 is more like it.

Albert Belle is a superior candidate despite only playing in 12 season (1500+ games). His RCAA of 379 is much more like an HoFer. If you like peak value, Belle has it in spades. His problem is that with such a short career his counting numbers just aren't up to the mark. Oh, and alienating every member of the BBWAA won't help.

Larry Walker has a 536 RCAA which is superb, but will get discounted due to Planet Coors and low counting numbers (he missed a ton of time due to injury). He could well be become one of only three inactive players with 500+ RCAA not to get in the HoF (Pete Browning and Dick Allen).

I agree that Belle is better than Juan Gone, and, subjectively, I'd rate Walker ahead of him as well. Juan Gone had a super peak, however, and may even resurface (although no one thinks he'll stay healthy anymore).

Juan Gone's stats will look absolutely super if baseball enters another mega pitcher's era in the future. Gee, he hit over .290. Over 400 HRs in such a short career. Wow! It worked for Chick Hafey and Jim Bottomley (that, and a little help from their friends on the Frisch VC Cabal).

[Evangelion]

Are we basing Gozno's chance of the Hall of Fame based on his HR and RBI total?

By stats alone, I think Gonzo has a solid chance of making it into the Hall of Fame. Though, you have to wonder if stats are going to be as important as they were back in the day. Gonzo has played in steriod era, so speculation of use will always be with him and all players that played during this era.

Might be a good reason why a writer would not let Gonzo in. But, his numbers are still not solid enough to just proclaim he's a Hall of Famer.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Are we basing Gozno's chance of the Hall of Fame based on his HR and RBI total?

By stats alone, I think Gonzo has a solid chance of making it into the Hall of Fame. Though, you have to wonder if stats are going to be as important as they were back in the day. Gonzo has played in steriod era, so speculation of use will always be with him and all players that played during this era.

Might be a good reason why a writer would not let Gonzo in. But, his numbers are still not solid enough to just proclaim he's a Hall of Famer.

As time passes, the memory of a player fades, but his stats remain.

His numbers are enough for the HOF, based on who's already been selected. Juan Gone is far, far from the bottom of the HOF. He ended his career as an oft-injured jerk, but this will fade from consciousness over the years. His stats, and his MVP awards, will serve as a bottom line for people to decide on. If baseball shifts back to a pitcher's era, Juan Gone's stock goes up.

[ElHalo]

It worked for Chick Hafey and Jim Bottomley (that, and a little help from their friends on the Frisch VC Cabal). Gonzalez is nothing like Chick Hafey. According to Richard Dawson, steroids make you deaf, but they sure don't make you blind.

(Mad props to anybody who picks up that reference.)

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Positive: Contrary to popular belief, Arlington was not a GREAT hitter's ballpark. It was right in the middle of the pack for the American League.



Serious? Arlington is, was, and always will be a launching pad.

Take the park for what it is, rather than comparing it to a bunch of other great hitters' parks.

[csh19792001]

Juan's entire case is predicated on RBI and homeruns (although mostly RBI). Consider that every single season of his career that he was healthy (excluding his cups of coffee and the strike years) he drove in 100 runs. He is also close to the top 10 alltime in homerun percentage.

We had a thread on Juan Gone ages ago. I'm reposting what I wrote then. I never did get an answer to the question I posed.

How important are runs batted in? How much of it has to be ascribed to A)luck, B) era, C)team offensive strength, and D) order in the lineup? Just looking at Juan Gone's page at baseball-reference, I gotta admit I'm in awe of his "ability" to drive in runs. I mean, check it out...

Alltime Leaders, RBI/G
1. Sam Thompson .93
2. Lou Gehrig .92
3. Hank Greenberg .92
4. Joe DiMaggio .89
5. Babe Ruth .88
6. Manny Ramirez .833
7. Juan Gonzalez .831
8. Jimmie Foxx .83
9. Cap Anson .83
10. Al Simmons .82

It's all old timers who played against what was likely inferior competition and/or in bigger run producing eras (where there were more guys on base-even relative to the 1990's- due to higher averages and far fewer strikeouts).... then we have Manny and Juan Gone....

Juan's career line is (was?) .295 .343 .561.

With RISP (drumroll please) it was .292 .358 .542

With runners on it was .301 .353 .569

RISP w/2 Outs .270 .359 .549

Does this necessary imply that we need to chalk up Juan Gone's claim to greatness (RBI) as nothing more than a function of the confluence of factors extrinsic to his actual hitting ability?

Also, there's this, courtesy of Double X:

Here is the post. (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=501301&postcount=5)

[csh19792001]

Serious? Arlington is, was, and always will be a launching pad.

Take the park for what it is, rather than comparing it to a bunch of other great hitters' parks.

I agree, but for whatever reason, Gonzalez certainly didn't put up those numbers by exploiting that park. Really bizarre, actually. Here's his splits. (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/4398/splits;_ylt=AonXRUYnI8UE47RDhnMF3EyFCLcF?year=care er&type=Batting)

237 homeruns on the road and yet only 197 at home. He was a better hitter there, but certainly not a better HR hitter.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

I agree, but for whatever reason, Gonzalez certainly didn't put up those numbers by exploiting that park. Really bizarre, actually. Here's his splits. (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/4398/splits;_ylt=AonXRUYnI8UE47RDhnMF3EyFCLcF?year=care er&type=Batting)

237 homeruns on the road and yet only 197 at home. He was a better hitter there, but certainly not a better HR hitter.

That's very surprising Chris.

Leads me to believe the other AL parks were extrememly HR friendly, because Arlington in and of itself is a haven. Although he seemed to be a classic pull hitter who hit a lot of line drives; maybe the wall in left hurt him, who knows.

[csh19792001]

That's very surprising Chris.

Leads me to believe the other AL parks were extrememly HR friendly, because Arlington in and of itself is a haven. Although he seemed to be a classic pull hitter who hit a lot of line drives; maybe the wall in left hurt him, who knows.

So who thinks he should get in? He's unarguably one of the greatest RBI machines in the history of baseball....his homerun/ab ratio is just about top 10alltime....

[G Man]

Juan's entire case is predicated on RBI and homeruns (although mostly RBI). Consider that every single season of his career that he was healthy (excluding his cups of coffee and the strike years) he drove in 100 runs. He is also close to the top 10 alltime in homerun percentage.

We had a thread on Juan Gone ages ago. I'm reposting what I wrote then. I never did get an answer to the question I posed.

How important are runs batted in? How much of it has to be ascribed to A)luck, B) era, C)team offensive strength, and D) order in the lineup? Just looking at Juan Gone's page at baseball-reference, I gotta admit I'm in awe of his "ability" to drive in runs. I mean, check it out...

Alltime Leaders, RBI/G
1. Sam Thompson .93
2. Lou Gehrig .92
3. Hank Greenberg .92
4. Joe DiMaggio .89
5. Babe Ruth .88
6. Manny Ramirez .833
7. Juan Gonzalez .831
8. Jimmie Foxx .83
9. Cap Anson .83
10. Al Simmons .82

It's all old timers who played against what was likely inferior competition and/or in bigger run producing eras (where there were more guys on base-even relative to the 1990's- due to higher averages and far fewer strikeouts).... then we have Manny and Juan Gone....

Juan's career line is (was?) .295 .343 .561.

With RISP (drumroll please) it was .292 .358 .542

With runners on it was .301 .353 .569

RISP w/2 Outs .270 .359 .549

Does this necessary imply that we need to chalk up Juan Gone's claim to greatness (RBI) as nothing more than a function of the confluence of factors extrinsic to his actual hitting ability?

Also, there's this, courtesy of Double X:

Here is the post. (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=501301&postcount=5)


The RBI/G is obviously an excellent point. And lets not forget there are only 13 players in the history of baseball with a better AB/HR ratio than Juan Gone. Granted, he had a relatively short career, as far as AB's go, but still, 434 HR is not exactely shabby. I am not going to say that Gonzalez will make the HOF. Personally I think he deserves it, but I do not think he will get in. Lets not forget (and yes, this is definately pushing the envelope) there is a slight chance his career may not be over. He is playing for the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League (Independent Baesball) as of early June. Today he had 2 HR and 5 RBI's. Personally, I think if he were to get in about a month of fairly good ball this season in the majors; say .290 BA 7HR 25 RBI in around 100 AB, and then next year he were to have a season similar to his 2001 season in Cleveland ( .325 BA 35 HR 140RBI, 140G) he would have a pretty good shot. This is, of course, making a large assumption, that there is even a chance he can stay healthy. This would put him at about 480 HR and quiet the steroid allegations. But as of today, I would say his chances are about 50/50 to get in the HOF.

Also, Gonzalez is not a shabby OF, he obviously does not have great range, but he has a cannon for an arm. I have seen the man play. In just 2003 he had 10 OF assists and 0 errors in only 57 games. In 2002, 9 assists and 1 error in 62 games(.992FP%). This would obviously be league-leading if continued throughout a full season. He has not had more than 4 errors in a season since 1992, which was just his 2nd full year in the league. His range is average, but he makes up for it with his arm. Career FP% of .983 is not bad at all. If you wanna talk about crappy defensive OF's...lets talk about Manny Ramirez. I don't recall ever seeing Juan drop a bunch of lazy fly's in one season. Career .977% FP. 2004 - 4 assists and 7 errors for a whopping ..967 FP... you cannot say Juan does not get in because of lack of steals or defensive ability. I don't think anyone here is going to say that Manny Ramirez doesn't get in becaues he doesn't have those things. http://www.baseball-fever.com/images/smilies/confused.gif
:confused:

[National Pastime 6-4-3]

1989-2005

4,000 or more plate appearances

RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Barry Bonds 6.72 11.69 4.97
2 Todd Helton 4.94 10.19 5.25
3 Frank Thomas 4.14 9.18 5.03
4 Mark McGwire 3.86 8.81 4.95
5 Manny Ramirez 3.78 8.96 5.18
6 Larry Walker 3.58 8.59 5.01
7 Jim Thome 3.43 8.62 5.19
8 Jason Giambi 3.29 8.47 5.18
9 Edgar Martinez 3.20 8.22 5.02
10 Brian Giles 3.18 8.44 5.26
11 Alex Rodriguez 3.13 8.30 5.17
12 Jeff Bagwell 3.04 8.11 5.07
13 Carlos Delgado 2.95 8.15 5.20
14 Bobby Abreu 2.91 8.15 5.25
15 Gary Sheffield 2.86 7.86 5.00
16 Vladimir Guerrero 2.86 8.07 5.21
17 Chipper Jones 2.82 8.03 5.21
18 Ken Griffey Jr. 2.73 7.73 5.00
19 Jim Edmonds 2.45 7.69 5.24
20 Will Clark 2.37 7.28 4.91
21 Mike Piazza 2.32 7.49 5.17
22 Nomar Garciaparra 2.23 7.41 5.18
23 Albert Belle 2.20 7.27 5.07
24 Mo Vaughn 2.12 7.27 5.15
25 Rafael Palmeiro 2.10 7.07 4.97
26 Tim Salmon 2.05 7.22 5.17
27 David Justice 1.92 6.89 4.97
28 Fred McGriff 1.92 6.83 4.92
29 Tony Gwynn 1.90 6.75 4.85
30 Scott Rolen 1.85 7.08 5.23
31 Rickey Henderson 1.84 6.77 4.93
32 Ellis Burks 1.80 6.71 4.91
33 John Olerud 1.77 6.80 5.04
34 Moises Alou 1.73 6.83 5.10
35 Paul Molitor 1.73 6.58 4.85
36 Rusty Greer 1.65 6.92 5.28
37 Mickey Tettleton 1.61 6.38 4.77
38 Juan Gonzalez 1.61 6.65 5.04
39 Ryan Klesko 1.59 6.79 5.20
40 Mike Sweeney 1.57 6.74 5.17
41 Derek Jeter 1.56 6.73 5.17
42 Kirby Puckett 1.55 6.19 4.64
43 Bernie Williams 1.53 6.63 5.10
44 Barry Larkin 1.48 6.45 4.97
45 Mark Grace 1.40 6.35 4.94
46 Jose Canseco 1.40 6.36 4.96
47 Magglio Ordonez 1.39 6.54 5.15
48 Sammy Sosa 1.38 6.44 5.05
49 Cliff Floyd 1.38 6.58 5.20
50 Chili Davis 1.36 6.24 4.88



1989-2005

Offensive Winning Percentage
OWP
1 Barry Bonds .836
2 Frank Thomas .751
3 Mark McGwire .743
4 Manny Ramirez .725
5 Jason Giambi .718
6 Edgar Martinez .714
7 Jim Thome .714
8 Brian Giles .709
9 Jeff Bagwell .704
10 Gary Sheffield .701
11 Alex Rodriguez .696
12 Todd Helton .693
13 Bobby Abreu .687
14 Carlos Delgado .687
15 Chipper Jones .685
16 Mike Piazza .684
17 Vladimir Guerrero .681
18 Ken Griffey Jr. .679
19 Larry Walker .670
20 Will Clark .669
21 Jim Edmonds .669
22 Rickey Henderson .660
23 Albert Belle .659
24 Tony Gwynn .652
25 Nomar Garciaparra .648
26 Rafael Palmeiro .647
27 Tim Salmon .642
28 Fred McGriff .641
29 John Olerud .639
30 Ryan Klesko .639
31 Mo Vaughn .637
32 Scott Rolen .634
33 David Justice .633
34 Paul Molitor .631
35 Derek Jeter .625
36 Bernie Williams .624
37 Moises Alou .620
38 Mickey Tettleton .615
39 Jose Canseco .613
40 Cliff Floyd .612
41 Juan Gonzalez .611
42 Kirby Puckett .609
43 Derrek Lee .607
44 Tim Raines .606
45 Sammy Sosa .606
46 Barry Larkin .606
47 Harold Baines .605
48 Chili Davis .604
49 Shawn Green .604
50 Jeff Kent .603

I can’t see Juan Gone as a Hall of Famer. Very good RBI totals obviously, but overall he wasn’t one of the top offensive forces in his own time. And a corner outfielder needs to be, to be a sure fire Hall of Famer. And if he’s not, then he needs to combine good offense with tremendous defensive and baserunning skills to be a HOFer. BTW, Offensive Winning Percentage is a little better stat than Runs Created Per Game Versus The League because it’s ballpark adjusted.

Also, I don’t think Juan should have won either MVP Award. I have Alex Rodriguez as MVP in 1996 and Albert Belle in 1998.

[538280]

Juan Gonzalez is the typical "RBI machine" type player. Those types are almost always overrated. They play for big hitting teams, in big hitting parks and eras, in the middle of the order, and are usually impatient hitters as well. Such hitters drive in a ton of runs, but really don't do a ton for their teams. Gonzalez was also slow, not a great fielder, was very often injured, and had a very short career. Not even close to the HOF, despite the RBI.

[G Man]

1989-2005

4,000 or more plate appearances

RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Barry Bonds 6.72 11.69 4.97
2 Todd Helton 4.94 10.19 5.25
3 Frank Thomas 4.14 9.18 5.03
4 Mark McGwire 3.86 8.81 4.95
5 Manny Ramirez 3.78 8.96 5.18
6 Larry Walker 3.58 8.59 5.01
7 Jim Thome 3.43 8.62 5.19
8 Jason Giambi 3.29 8.47 5.18
9 Edgar Martinez 3.20 8.22 5.02
10 Brian Giles 3.18 8.44 5.26
11 Alex Rodriguez 3.13 8.30 5.17
12 Jeff Bagwell 3.04 8.11 5.07
13 Carlos Delgado 2.95 8.15 5.20
14 Bobby Abreu 2.91 8.15 5.25
15 Gary Sheffield 2.86 7.86 5.00
16 Vladimir Guerrero 2.86 8.07 5.21
17 Chipper Jones 2.82 8.03 5.21
18 Ken Griffey Jr. 2.73 7.73 5.00
19 Jim Edmonds 2.45 7.69 5.24
20 Will Clark 2.37 7.28 4.91
21 Mike Piazza 2.32 7.49 5.17
22 Nomar Garciaparra 2.23 7.41 5.18
23 Albert Belle 2.20 7.27 5.07
24 Mo Vaughn 2.12 7.27 5.15
25 Rafael Palmeiro 2.10 7.07 4.97
26 Tim Salmon 2.05 7.22 5.17
27 David Justice 1.92 6.89 4.97
28 Fred McGriff 1.92 6.83 4.92
29 Tony Gwynn 1.90 6.75 4.85
30 Scott Rolen 1.85 7.08 5.23
31 Rickey Henderson 1.84 6.77 4.93
32 Ellis Burks 1.80 6.71 4.91
33 John Olerud 1.77 6.80 5.04
34 Moises Alou 1.73 6.83 5.10
35 Paul Molitor 1.73 6.58 4.85
36 Rusty Greer 1.65 6.92 5.28
37 Mickey Tettleton 1.61 6.38 4.77
38 Juan Gonzalez 1.61 6.65 5.04
39 Ryan Klesko 1.59 6.79 5.20
40 Mike Sweeney 1.57 6.74 5.17
41 Derek Jeter 1.56 6.73 5.17
42 Kirby Puckett 1.55 6.19 4.64
43 Bernie Williams 1.53 6.63 5.10
44 Barry Larkin 1.48 6.45 4.97
45 Mark Grace 1.40 6.35 4.94
46 Jose Canseco 1.40 6.36 4.96
47 Magglio Ordonez 1.39 6.54 5.15
48 Sammy Sosa 1.38 6.44 5.05
49 Cliff Floyd 1.38 6.58 5.20
50 Chili Davis 1.36 6.24 4.88



1989-2005

Offensive Winning Percentage
OWP
1 Barry Bonds .836
2 Frank Thomas .751
3 Mark McGwire .743
4 Manny Ramirez .725
5 Jason Giambi .718
6 Edgar Martinez .714
7 Jim Thome .714
8 Brian Giles .709
9 Jeff Bagwell .704
10 Gary Sheffield .701
11 Alex Rodriguez .696
12 Todd Helton .693
13 Bobby Abreu .687
14 Carlos Delgado .687
15 Chipper Jones .685
16 Mike Piazza .684
17 Vladimir Guerrero .681
18 Ken Griffey Jr. .679
19 Larry Walker .670
20 Will Clark .669
21 Jim Edmonds .669
22 Rickey Henderson .660
23 Albert Belle .659
24 Tony Gwynn .652
25 Nomar Garciaparra .648
26 Rafael Palmeiro .647
27 Tim Salmon .642
28 Fred McGriff .641
29 John Olerud .639
30 Ryan Klesko .639
31 Mo Vaughn .637
32 Scott Rolen .634
33 David Justice .633
34 Paul Molitor .631
35 Derek Jeter .625
36 Bernie Williams .624
37 Moises Alou .620
38 Mickey Tettleton .615
39 Jose Canseco .613
40 Cliff Floyd .612
41 Juan Gonzalez .611
42 Kirby Puckett .609
43 Derrek Lee .607
44 Tim Raines .606
45 Sammy Sosa .606
46 Barry Larkin .606
47 Harold Baines .605
48 Chili Davis .604
49 Shawn Green .604
50 Jeff Kent .603

I can’t see Juan Gone as a Hall of Famer. Very good RBI totals obviously, but overall he wasn’t one of the top offensive forces in his own time. And a corner outfielder needs to be, to be a sure fire Hall of Famer. And if he’s not, then he needs to combine good offense with tremendous defensive and baserunning skills to be a HOFer. BTW, Offensive Winning Percentage is a little better stat than Runs Created Per Game Versus The League because it’s ballpark adjusted.

Also, I don’t think Juan should have won either MVP Award. I have Alex Rodriguez as MVP in 1996 and Albert Belle in 1998.

Honestly, there is no way he is not one of the top offensive forces in his own time. I mean, unless you completely ignore the numbers. I don't think it is fair to say Juan is not one of the top offensive forces of his time based on his Offensive Winning Percentage. You can't take one player and multiply him by 9 and say "This is my team." No one player multiplied by 9 is going to make a great team. The whole team concept was created because it is made up of different parts that are all necessary to make a team a champion.

Juan has only been on a team that made the playoffs 4 times. And 2 of those times were with the Rangers in 98 and 99 where they were completely owned by the Yankees. In fact, in 1999 the only run the Rangers scored in their 3 game elimination was a HR by Gonzalez. '96 was the only year they even won a game against the Yanks in the playoffs. And he gets it done when it counts. One game in the '96 Division Series Gonzalez lined a ball out of the park that was barely called foul. Then the next pitch he hit a fair one out of the park. He is ranked amongst the top 5 in all-time postseason slugging % at .742. Also in 1996 he tied the record for the most HR in a 5 game series. The guy he tied with played one more game than Gonzalez.

Also, someone earlier made the point that it does not matter what your opinion is on the MVP's, he still won them. But for the record, how can A-Rod be considered the MVP for the AL when he is not even the Most Valuable Player for his team? Jr was definately more valuable to that team than Rodriguez was, no questions asked. 13 more HR and 17 more RBI in about 50 less AB for Griff when compared to Rodriguez that year. Not to mention Jr's constant superb game-winning defense in CF. Without Gonzalez in '96, the Rangers don't even come close to winning the West, not even close. Without Rodriguez, the Mariner's still have Jr, one of the best players the game has ever seen. As for Belle, normally a player has to have a much better year than his competitor for the MVP, if his team did not even make the playoffs. It is arguable as to who had the better season; with this being said, Belle was not even close to having out-played Gonzalez to a large enough extent that it would make up for the fact that his team did not even finish above .500, not to mention make the playoffs. Part of this same argument could also be made for Gonzalez in '96, considering that the Mariners also did not make the playoffs that year.

[G Man]

How can driving runs in be overrated? The only thing that determines if a team wins or loses is how many runs they score. That is the one thing that determines the fate of the team. How can this be overrated?

[jalbright]

How can driving runs in be overrated? The only thing that determines if a team wins or loses is how many runs they score. That is the one thing that determines the fate of the team. How can this be overrated?

I understand the importance of runs, but many people act like the RBI guy both scored and knocked in the run, even if he didn't hit a homer. Absent scoring on your own homer, RBI require somebody to get on base first. Forget that key fact, and it's very easy to greatly overestimate RBI.

Jim Albright

[G Man]

If Kirby Puckett got in, every good OF from the 90's deserves to!

LOL

[rsuriyop]

If Kirby Puckett got in, every good OF from the 90's deserves to!

LOL

Not sure whether you're being facetious, but you kind of have a point. At least Gonzalez's career splits were fairly even, unlike Puckett's.

(For the record though, Puckett's sill a legit Hof'er in my book ;) )

[Fuzzy Bear]

If Kirby Puckett got in, every good OF from the 90's deserves to!

Kirby Puckett gets a bonus for being an excellent defensive CENTER fielder. He's also one of the very few guys that was truly better than his stats. And his stats are well withing the range of HOF center fielders; there are a number of HOF CFs with stats inferior to Puckett's that are in the HOF.

[G Man]

Alex Rodriguez is now 32nd on MLB's all-time home run hitters list. :clapping I just came up with there numbers about "home run per plate appeareances" for batters with at least 3000 plate appearances. I thought it would be fun to share these with you all. There are quite a few surprises. Hope you enjoy.

RK NAME PA HR HR/PA
1 Mark McGwire 7660 583 13,14
2 Babe Ruth 10616 714 14,87
3 Sammy Sosa 9442 588 16,06
4 Albert Pujols 3778 232 16,28
5 Juan Gonzalez 7155 434 16,49
6 Barry Bonds 11932 722 16,53
7 Manny Ramirez 7626 461 16,54
8 Jim Thome 7665 462 16,59
9 Alex Rodriguez 7509 450 16,69
10 Dave Kingman 7429 442 16,81
11 Ken Griffey Jr 9367 555 16,88
12 Ralph Kiner 6256 369 16,95
13 Adam Dunn 3205 188 17,05
14 Ron Kittle 3013 176 17,12
15 Ha. Killebrew 9831 573 17,16
16 Albert Belle 6673 381 17,51
17 Richie Sexson 4519 258 17,52
18 Jose Canseco 8129 462 17,60
19 Mike Piazza 7247 411 17,63
20 Carlos Delgado 7020 393 17,86
21 Jimmie Foxx 9670 534 18,11
22 Vl. Guerrero 5893 325 18,13
23 Mike Schmidt 10062 548 18,36
24 Hank Greenberg 6096 331 18,42
25 Troy Glaus 4498 244 18,43
Miniumum : 3000 PA.


Claude

How bout the fact that Gonzalez ranks #5 on this list?

[jalbright]

That list tilts toward active players who haven't yet had their decline phase and/or have benefitted from the current smaller parks (and at least in some cases, HGH and steroids). If Gonzalez could have kept playing longer, he'd have more career HR and a better case. But he didn't, and he doesn't.

Jim Albright

[G Man]

i would agree that his case greatly suffers from the fact that his career was fairly short

[538280]

Honestly, there is no way he is not one of the top offensive forces in his own time. I mean, unless you completely ignore the numbers. I don't think it is fair to say Juan is not one of the top offensive forces of his time based on his Offensive Winning Percentage. You can't take one player and multiply him by 9 and say "This is my team." No one player multiplied by 9 is going to make a great team. The whole team concept was created because it is made up of different parts that are all necessary to make a team a champion.


This shows that you have no knowledge or understanding of what offensive winning percentage really is or what it stands for. It is only a wining percentage in the way it is presented, because that makes a way that's easy to understand. Any person can look at a .700 OwP and automatically know that's very good, even if they're not really familiar with the statistic. But it is only in that form for presentation, really. What OWP really is is the player's RC/27 compared to the league average and park adjusted. It is just thrown into the pytagorean formula to create a winning percentage because of what I said, to provide a frame of reference.

If you have a problem with OWP, it should be about the runs created formula or about how it is divided by outs, not with it's presentation, because it could be presented in a number of ways, you could just divide player RC/27 by league RC/27 and you'd get the same results.

[Myankee4life]

Gonzalez has HOF numbers when taken at face value.

His 1996-1998 run helps his case.

He hit 30+ Hrs 7X and drove in 100+rbi 8X

In his career he averaged .295/42/135

He has 434 Hr's and 1404 Rbi's

He's also not likely to add much to those numbers...

If it was up to me i'd elect him.

I think hes going to fall short because of the era he played in and he falls short in counting numbers aswell as his history of injurys.

[538280]

You'd vote for him? Those numbers, in park and era context, are not especially great. And he had an extremely short career and was pretty bad in the field.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Alltime Leaders, RBI/G

1. Sam Thompson .93
2. Lou Gehrig .92
3. Hank Greenberg .92
4. Joe DiMaggio .89
5. Babe Ruth .88
6. Manny Ramirez .833
7. Juan Gonzalez .831
8. Jimmie Foxx .83
9. Cap Anson .83
10. Al Simmons .82


Just like with HR/PA, doesn't this list punish guys who got walked a lot?

Here are those guys' BB/162.

Babe --133
Lou ---113
Jimmie 102
Hank --99
Manny -92
Joe D -74
Cap ---63
Sam ---52
Al ----45
Juan --44

And here are those same players using the more accurate AB/RBI.

1. Babe Ruth ----3.788
2. Lou Gehrig ----4.010
3. H. Greenberg - 4.069
4. Jimmie Foxx ---4.232
5. M. Ramirez ----4.332
6. Joe DiMaggio --4.437
7. S. Thompson --4.606
8. Juan Gonzalez -4.669
9. Al Simmons ----4.794
10.Cap Anson ----4.950

note: Williams - 4.190, Aaron - 5.382, Cobb - 5.902

[JimAbbott]

The precedents of Koufax and Greenberg and how vital their "peaks" were to their elections as described by several forum members. Based on this then Juan Gonzo Gonzalez would then have to be a certainty unless this argument is flawed.

[EvanAparra]

Just like Shawn Green right?

[Fuzzy Bear]

To compare Juan Gone to Hank Greenberg is silly. Greenberg lost 4 1/2 years of his career to the US Army, something he could not control, and something that was not a result of his playing style. Juan Gone's career self destructed due to a rash of injuries that well may be the product of "Vitamin S". In addition, Juan Gone extended his career with the DH, something Greenberg never did.

EDIT: After checking, my DH statement appears incorrect. Out of 1,312 games, Gonzalez DH'd for only 370 of them, and his DHing was largely a result of resting him while playing him, putting him at DH to nurse injuries, things like that. He DH'd for part of every year, but even in his last years, he was never a full-time DH; he still played plenty of OF.

[BelieveForever'03]

The precedents of Koufax and Greenberg and how vital their "peaks" were to their elections as described by several forum members. Based on this then Juan Gonzo Gonzalez would then have to be a certainty unless this argument is flawed.

Why is everything re: the Hall Of Fame centered around Koufax and Greenberg?

[RuthMayBond]

JimAbbott must build ninety new wings onto the Hall of Fame building :rolleyes:

[Fuzzy Bear]

I miss Sockeye's projections.
:hp

[dgarza]

Sure Gonzalez had a peak here and there, but they don't compare to Koufax's and Greenberg's peaks.
Greenberg had 4 years OPS+ that matched or were better than Gonzalez's best, 8 years OPS+ that matched or bettered Gonzalez's 2nd highest.
And if you'll allow me to equate OPS+ with ERA+,
Koufax had 2 years ERA+ that matched or bettered Gonzalez's best, 4 years ERA+ that matched or bettered Gonzalez's 2nd best OPS+.
I don't mind Gonzalez for the Hall, but there are better comparisons than Koufax or Greenberg.

[EvanAparra]

When i first saw this thread i thought it said Juan Gonzalez Must Go to Hell... i though JA was off his rocker, and after seeing what it really said, he's still off his rocker.

[candy curveball cummings]

When i first saw this thread i thought it said Juan Gonzalez Must Go to Hell... i though JA was off his rocker, and after seeing what it really said, he's still off his rocker.

I think what you saw might be a little more likely. :laugh


Just Kidding Juan Gone.

[KCGHOST]

Juan Gone belongs in the DL HoF.

[EvanAparra]

First ballot along with Mark Prior

[Captain Cold Nose]

In all fairness, Gonzalez put up big big numbers for a few years there at the beginning of the current offensive boom. But his peak was not as good as Greenberg's. If he continued to psot the numbers, like Manny ramirez has, then sure. But Gonzalez fell off the earth, injuries caught up to him, not to mention the debacle season he spent in Detroit. And they were willing to shell out $140 million for this guy? This is a guy who really burned his bridges once his bat stopped working so well.
His reputation has tarnished him greatly the last few years, but he was a legit superstar for a time.

[mwiggins]

To compare Juan Gone to Hank Greenberg is silly. Greenberg lost 4 1/2 years of his career to the US Army, something he could not control, and something that was not a result of his playing style. Juan Gone's career self destructed due to a rash of injuries that well may be the product of "Vitamin S". In addition, Juan Gone extended his career with the DH, something Greenberg never did.

Giving Hank credit for his war years, like we do every one else, he had a peak that was about as long and productive as McCovey, Thomas, Bagwell, Mize, Foxx, Allen, Killibrew. Juan had only 4 full season with an OPS+ over 140. Greenberg had 7, even if you DON'T give him any credit for the years he lost in the service. And Juan Gone only had 1 season (1993) that was better than Greenberg's AVERAGE season.

[Fuzzy Bear]

In all fairness, Gonzalez put up big big numbers for a few years there at the beginning of the current offensive boom. But his peak was not as good as Greenberg's. If he continued to psot the numbers, like Manny ramirez has, then sure. But Gonzalez fell off the earth, injuries caught up to him, not to mention the debacle season he spent in Detroit. And they were willing to shell out $140 million for this guy? This is a guy who really burned his bridges once his bat stopped working so well.
His reputation has tarnished him greatly the last few years, but he was a legit superstar for a time.

If Gonzalez actually came back and played and got to 500 HRs without injury, I MIGHT consider his candidacy.

Gonzalez has many of the accoutrements of a HOFer. What he has to combat is the perception that he doesn't deserve them. Most people think he didn't deserve either MVP award he won.

His numbers are flat out impressive for a short career. He didn't DH as much as I thought, either. This has to be balanced against the fact that he was done as a regular at 32, due to injuries, and done completely at age 34.

If he were to come back and do the Julio Franco, he would bolster his case. But if he does so as a DH, he'll just look like a stat padder.

Gonzalez is definitely NOT at the bottom of the HOF. But there are other guys in his generation that clearly come first, and I don't view it as a sign of greatness when a player falls apart at age 32.

One argument in favor of Gonzalez: His best years, the MVP years, coincided with the Rangers finishing first. Gonzalez was, arguably, the best player on a winning team. This is a hallmark of a great player; a player that leads the team to 1st place. If Gonzalez were the best player on a team in his best years, that team could certainly win the pennant.

[mwiggins]

If Gonzalez actually came back and played and got to 500 HRs without injury, I MIGHT consider his candidacy.

Gonzalez has many of the accoutrements of a HOFer. What he has to combat is the perception that he doesn't deserve them. Most people think he didn't deserve either MVP award he won.

His numbers are flat out impressive for a short career. He didn't DH as much as I thought, either. This has to be balanced against the fact that he was done as a regular at 32, due to injuries, and done completely at age 34.

If he were to come back and do the Julio Franco, he would bolster his case. But if he does so as a DH, he'll just look like a stat padder.

Gonzalez is definitely NOT at the bottom of the HOF. But there are other guys in his generation that clearly come first, and I don't view it as a sign of greatness when a player falls apart at age 32.

One argument in favor of Gonzalez: His best years, the MVP years, coincided with the Rangers finishing first. Gonzalez was, arguably, the best player on a winning team. This is a hallmark of a great player; a player that leads the team to 1st place. If Gonzalez were the best player on a team in his best years, that team could certainly win the pennant.

Yeah, he had a short career, but comparing him to his peers...his best years (1993,1996,1998) weren't as good as Griffey's or Thomas's or Belle's or Edgar's or Thome's or McGwire's or A-Rod's or Manny's best season's. There can't be THAT many HoF sluggers from the AL in the same decade? Sure, he's better than some HoF corner outfielders, but they shouldn't be in either.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Yeah, he had a short career, but comparing him to his peers...his best years (1993,1996,1998) weren't as good as Griffey's or Thomas's or Belle's or Edgar's or Thome's or McGwire's or A-Rod's or Manny's best season's. There can't be THAT many HoF sluggers from the AL in the same decade? Sure, he's better than some HoF corner outfielders, but they shouldn't be in either.

All the guys you mention are slam dunk HOFers, except for Edgar, and Gonzalez has defensive value that Edgar really doesn't have. Juan Gone didn't have a career as good as those other guys, with the possible exception of Edgar, and only if you discount him as a DH, but he was a great player for a while. He's killed his reputation over the past few years, but the great years he had are real, and are a part of his career. He did a lot in a short time. He didn't do much of anything after that short time passed, which is why his case is problematic.

[mwiggins]

All the guys you mention are slam dunk HOFers, except for Edgar, and Gonzalez has defensive value that Edgar really doesn't have. Juan Gone didn't have a career as good as those other guys, with the possible exception of Edgar, and only if you discount him as a DH, but he was a great player for a while. He's killed his reputation over the past few years, but the great years he had are real, and are a part of his career. He did a lot in a short time. He didn't do much of anything after that short time passed, which is why his case is problematic.

I would say all of those guys should get in, besides maybe Thome. I don't think he's a lock yet. Belle's iffy if he'll get in. And who knows how the voters will view Manny. But I'd also probably put Bernie Williams and Paul O'Neil in head of Juan Gone.

[RuthMayBond]

And who knows how the voters will view Manny.That will help us figure out if they know what they're doing

<But I'd also probably put Bernie Williams and Paul O'Neil in head of Juan Gone.>

Bernie yeah, but Paul O'Neill? :confused: :ughh

[machinehead11]

Juan Gone was my favorite player as a teen, and my second-favorite of all-time (behind Nolan Ryan). Watching him play was some of the most fun I"ve ever had as a fan.

That said, he belongs nowhere near the HOF. As much as I would love to see him inducted, he really screwed himself over by not taking better care of himself physically (thus acquiring his injuries). He was well on his way to the HOF, no doubt. Even back in '94, I remember EVERYONE saying that he was already practically a first-ballot HOFer. But then he became our generation's version of Jim Rice.

A shame, especially for fans of his.

[brett]

Juan is not a terrible hall of fame choice, but he won MVPs for the same reason that he shouldn't get in-that his triple crown stats are great but other stats like OB% are not so great. He is considered by many to be one of the worst MVP choices ever in both of his MVP years. If he had truly been one of the best players in the league in his MVP years, than the Koufax or Greenberg argument would work, but I don't think he was top 5 in '96 or '98 when he won.

Bagwell, for example comes out solidly ahead of Gonzalez. Better on base percentage, as well as better base running and probably defense (although no first baseman is a plus fielder in my book).

[candy curveball cummings]

Juan is not a terrible hall of fame choice, but he won MVPs for the same reason that he shouldn't get in-that his triple crown stats are great but other stats like OB% are not so great. He is considered by many to be one of the worst MVP choices ever in both of his MVP years. If he had truly been one of the best players in the league in his MVP years, than the Koufax or Greenberg argument would work, but I don't think he was top 5 in '96 or '98 when he won.

Bagwell, for example comes out solidly ahead of Gonzalez. Better on base percentage, as well as better base running and probably defense (although no first baseman is a plus fielder in my book).

Juan Gone won his '96 award because of voter-error.

[brett]

In '96, Griffey, Belle, A-Rod and Frank Thomas all were better as well as probably Mo Vaughn and Mark McGwire.

In '98 he proably should have finished behind Garciaparra, Griffey, Vaughn, Ramirez, Bernie Williams, A-Rod and maybe more.

Juan Gone won his '96 award because of voter-error.

[candy curveball cummings]

In '96, Griffey, Belle, A-Rod and Frank Thomas all were better as well as probably Mo Vaughn and Mark McGwire.

In '98 he proably should have finished behind Garciaparra, Griffey, Vaughn, Ramirez, Bernie Williams, A-Rod and maybe more.

In '96, two voters who actually intended to vote for A-Rod accidentally voted for Juan Gone.

[ChrisLDuncan]

The precedents of Koufax and Greenberg and how vital their "peaks" were to their elections as described by several forum members. Based on this then Juan Gonzo Gonzalez would then have to be a certainty unless this argument is flawed.


If you were in the business of putting overrated roided up players in, than yeah I'd say he belongs...but other than that he wasn't HoF good. The two MVPs he won A-Rod deserved more than he did (in 1998 other players deserved that award more too), so I wouldn't put him in.

[STLCards2]

Gonzalez was better than many will remember, but "must" is a pretty strong word. He certainly isn't such a no-brainer that "must" should be thrown around. I think he is borderline, but out. A borderline, but in opinion is reasonable, I guess.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think there is a degree of intellectual dishonesty in dismissing MVP awards, and especially MULTIPLE MVP awards, by saying "He didn't deserve them!" as if that were the knowable Gospel truth.

Juan Gonzalez made enough of an impact on MVP voters TWICE to where those voters said he was the best player in the AL that year. Did they get it right? Maybe, maybe not. But neither selection was outrageous, and Juan Gone CLEARLY helped his losing team get over the hump and win.

I give more weight to some MVP awards than others, and there are occasional flukes, but that the writers of Gonzalez' prime saw fit to give him this award TWICE is evidence that his contemporaries thought highly of him. It's not intellectually honest to just blow that off.

[RuthMayBond]

I think there is a degree of intellectual dishonesty in dismissing MVP awards, and especially MULTIPLE MVP awards, by saying "He didn't deserve them!" as if that were the knowable Gospel truth.

Juan Gonzalez made enough of an impact on MVP voters TWICE to where those voters said he was the best player in the AL that year. Did they get it right? Maybe, maybe not. But neither selection was outrageous, and Juan Gone CLEARLY helped his losing team get over the hump and win.

I give more weight to some MVP awards than others, and there are occasional flukes, but that the writers of Gonzalez' prime saw fit to give him this award TWICE is evidence that his contemporaries thought highly of him. It's not intellectually honest to just blow that off.No one's saying he wasn't among the best, just that he was not better than Griffey in '96 and Belle in '98. And don't get me started about Gold Gloves of Kaat, RAlomar, Vizquel ;)

[Captain Cold Nose]

No one's saying he wasn't among the best, just that he was not better than Griffey in '96 and Belle in '98. And don't get me started about Gold Gloves of Kaat, RAlomar, Vizquel ;)
What the writers do is irrelevant in regards to Gold Gloves. They aren't the one voting for them. You really need to move away from that fallacy, considering the effort you've put into defensive research.

[RuthMayBond]

What the writers do is irrelevant in regards to Gold Gloves. They aren't the one voting for them. You really need to move away from that fallacy, considering the effort you've put into defensive research.I'm referring to voters, you're the one who brought up writers.

[Seattle1]

Juan Gonzalez Must Go To Hall

Didn't he take drugs?

[Captain Cold Nose]

I'm referring to voters, you're the one who brought up writers.
Different set of voters. Apples and oranges argument.

[RuthMayBond]

Different set of voters. Apples and oranges argument.They're still voters who have made fairly bad decisions which is my point, I don't know why the argument :confused:

[Captain Cold Nose]

They're still voters who have made fairly bad decisions which is my point, I don't know why the argument :confused:
Because poorly awarded Gold Gloves aren't relevant to an MVP discussion, let alone Juan Gonzalez for the HOF discussion.

[Brad Harris]

Juan Gonzalez Must Go To Hall

Didn't he take drugs?

The only source I've seen referring to Gonzo as a steroid user was Canseco's "tell all." That doesn't mean it didn't happen, but I'd want more than Canseco's word before I held it against Gonzo's Hall of Fame case.

Even without the steroid allegations, Juan doesn't belong in the Hall.

[candy curveball cummings]

No one's saying he wasn't among the best, just that he was not better than Griffey in '96 and Belle in '98. And don't get me started about Gold Gloves of Kaat, RAlomar, Vizquel ;)

So in '96 you'd give it to Griffey? I'd give it to A Rod.

[2Chance]

I believe all players should go to the Hall of Fame. Give them a sense of history. See those players who could have shown them how the game was meant to be played.

But to stay? With a plaque? That's only for the best of the best, and Juan Gone doesn't fit that description. At one time it looked like he would be a lock, but he fell apart too quickly.

Roger Maris and Dale Murphy are the two other multiple MVP winners who have not made it, and these three will probably come up in future discussions at the same time as being on the borderline among BBFers, but fewer people will be passionate about Gonzalez because he did burn so many bridges.

[Seattle1]

The only source I've seen referring to Gonzo as a steroid user was Canseco's "tell all." That doesn't mean it didn't happen, but I'd want more than Canseco's word before I held it against Gonzo's Hall of Fame case.

Even without the steroid allegations, Juan doesn't belong in the Hall.

Didn't he test positive last year?

[candy curveball cummings]

Didn't he test positive last year?

No. Only 13 major leaguers have tested positive. Here's the list:

Alex Sanchez
Jorge Piedra
Agustin Montero
Jamal Strong
Juan Rincon
Rafael Betancourt
Rafael Palmeiro
Ryan Franklin
Mike Morse
Carlos Almanzar
Felix Heredia
Matt Lawton
Yusaku Iriki

[Brad Harris]

Where's Grimsley?

[538280]

I think there is a degree of intellectual dishonesty in dismissing MVP awards, and especially MULTIPLE MVP awards, by saying "He didn't deserve them!" as if that were the knowable Gospel truth.

Juan Gonzalez made enough of an impact on MVP voters TWICE to where those voters said he was the best player in the AL that year. Did they get it right? Maybe, maybe not. But neither selection was outrageous, and Juan Gone CLEARLY helped his losing team get over the hump and win.

I give more weight to some MVP awards than others, and there are occasional flukes, but that the writers of Gonzalez' prime saw fit to give him this award TWICE is evidence that his contemporaries thought highly of him. It's not intellectually honest to just blow that off.

I usually try to look at why a seemingly undeserving player may have won the MVP. If the writers were picking up on some sort of intangible skill the player had outside of the numbers that you can really only know by watching him, I certainly think that is important. However, many of the worst MVP choices, and this is certainly the case with Juan Gone, it is just misinterpretation of statistics (the known infatuation with RBI and almost not caring about getting on base), as well as failure to adjust for things like park effects.

[cup2006sensrule]

The MVP is the MVP regardless of looking back and saying they didn't deserve it. 1988 Kirk Gibson is NL MVP with little in way of statistical dominance. However looking at what the Dodgers did that season and Gibson's leadeship and the fact the Dodgers went on to win the Wrold Series Gibson's selection is not a bad one at all in hindsight.

Dawson in 1987 may have been on a last place team and he may have not been as good as he was in the early 1980's in the field but 49 HRs and 137 RBIs is VERY huge regardless of whether he had a low OBA or whatever.

Juan won 2 MVPs. You can't take that away from him or discredit him becuse in hindsight you think some one else was more deserving.

Either way even if a player wins an MVP and "doesn't deserve it" he certainly has to be one of the btop few players in the League anyway which is huge in itself.

Anyway I am unsure on Juan Gone. I would put in Albert Belle before I would put in Gonzalez and either one could get in or not get in. If either was "loved" while they played like Puckett or Jeter they would get in but both had bad-reps and will lose votes from some writers becuse of it.

[RuthMayBond]

His career was arguably better than Ross Youngs and Tommy McCarthy . . .
. . . and arguably worse than Rocky Colavito, Ken Singleton, Bobby Bonds, Harold Baines, Dave Parker ...

[Fuzzy Bear]

Gonzalez needs to come back and add to his totals to make the HOF. It's doubtful he will. I heard that he tried to play in an independent minor league last year (the same one John Rocker played in) and couldn't hack.

If he's done, he's no better than Canseco. And it looks like he's done.

[Jim Abbott]

Juan gone is outta here and out of the hall, but if Greenberg has Juan's numbers, he's be in on 1st ballot guaranteed. Sorry gonzo, it's the system