How many homers for Sammy? [Archive]

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Hammerin Hank

08-01-2003, 07:11 PM

Sammy's only 34 years old and already has 522 career homeruns. How many do you think he'll end up with?

Hammerin Hank

08-01-2003, 07:13 PM

I say he has about 165 left in him, which would give him about 690.

tearforamariner

08-01-2003, 07:14 PM

My prediction: He'll hit about 650.

Hammerin Hank

08-01-2003, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by Hammerin Hank
I say he has about 165 left in him, which would give him about 690.

Hmm...he's at 522 so far with 23 homer this season. He'll have about 35 for this season. If he plays until he's 39....

34: 35
35: 45
36: 40
37: 35
38: 30
39: 25

Now, that's 220 right there, so I guess with my prediction of 165 I think that he'll either not play until he's 39, he'll have a much more serious decline in power than I showed above, or he'll pull a Griffey and won't get much play time.

Peggin_Maniac

08-01-2003, 07:19 PM

I can see him getting over 700 hr's, if he stay healthly and stays in the game for 5 to 6 years..

racosun

08-01-2003, 07:32 PM

I personally think he's gonna come real close to :eek: 800. :eek:

Hammerin Hank

08-01-2003, 07:36 PM

tearforamariner

08-01-2003, 07:54 PM

Hey, Hank. Do you want to know why I picked such a low number?

Hammerin Hank

08-01-2003, 07:58 PM

You aren't good at math?:D Just playin!

tearforamariner

08-01-2003, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by Hammerin Hank
You aren't good at math?:D Just playin!

Nope, actually I'm very good at math. I chose 650 just to tick you off. :laugh

Hammerin Hank

08-01-2003, 08:01 PM

Oh, I wasn't ticked off. If you were trying for that you should've gone for a number around 600. I think that it is possible for him to end up with 650 for his career. But I also believe it's possible for him to end up with 750.

uthminsta

08-01-2003, 09:18 PM

I predict 704. And although it would be an incredible coincidence if I were right, I'm sure this post will be forgotten by the time he does it.

insanefishpossay

08-02-2003, 10:05 AM

If he plays until he's around 39-ish, I'd say around 700 homers. Maybe if he moves to the AL and stays as a DH for a few more seasons he could have more.

kdog

08-07-2003, 12:06 PM

i think he still has two more fifty plus seasons alone. if he stays healthy, easily over 750. i think that what is more of a lock is that he will be the all time strikeout king. anyone curious as to why ol sammy boy stopped stealing bases?

baseballwise

08-07-2003, 01:34 PM

Sammy is motivated to leave his mark on the game. He's several years younger than Barry Bonds, who will leave the game long before Sam as long as Sam remains healthy.

Having established that as my rationale, I predict Sam will strive to hit 25 homers beyond Bonds' final total. So racosun may be right...and the number may be closer to 800 than anything less.

Atlanta Braves Freak

08-07-2003, 05:33 PM

630 for Sammy maybe 700 depending on how much longer he plays, he will have 2 more 50 hr seasons and hit about 25+ after his 50 homer years.

ricucity

08-08-2003, 04:17 PM

Considering he was hurt, suspended, and overcame controversy, and is still going to hit 35 HRs, I would say about 720.

35: 45 HRs
36: 42 HRs
37: 40 HRs
38: 35 HRs
39: 34 HRs

196 HRs...plus about 13 more this year...

SilverSlugger73

10-13-2003, 05:41 PM

I think he'll end up with about 800 homers...

Hammerin Hank

10-13-2003, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by SilverSlugger73
I think he'll end up with about 800 homers...

If he plays until he's 45.

baseballwise

10-13-2003, 10:15 PM

Know what, Hank??? they allowed Ricky Henderson to keep playing so he can chase personal records...as long as he can still contribute something to the game.

Sammy Sosa will hopefully be able to play as long as it takes to get those 800 homers.....or whatever it takes to have the most of all-time when he quits.

Hammerin Hank

10-13-2003, 10:20 PM

I'm hoping he quits before he turns into a sub-par player. Forget about chasing longevity records and just quit before your numbers start looking like trash.

kelo80

11-30-2003, 02:30 PM

I think he'll end up with 770+!!!

Eddie Collins

11-30-2003, 02:59 PM

about 700. but if he gets that far, he would probably stay around just to get the record.

kelo80

11-30-2003, 03:06 PM

Sammy is 35 and has 539 homers

If he averages 30 homers per year until hes 40 he'll get 689 homers.
If he averages 40 he'll get 739
If he averages 45 he'll get 764
If he averages 50 (which probably will not) hell get 789
If he averages 100 til hes 40 he'll get 1039!!!:D

WoodPriorCubs4ever

11-30-2003, 04:16 PM

I think He will end up in the second place of all time, behind Hank Aaron.

mojorisin71

11-30-2003, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by WoodPriorCubs4ever
I think He will end up in the second place of all time, behind Hank Aaron.

Are you implying that Barry Bonds will retire after next year? Just wondering

For the record, I think that he might pass Willie Mays for 4th all-time.

Hammerin Hank

01-08-2005, 09:29 AM

Hmm...he's at 522 so far with 23 homer this season. He'll have about 35 for this season. If he plays until he's 39....

34: 35
35: 45
36: 40
37: 35
38: 30
39: 25

Now, that's 220 right there, so I guess with my prediction of 165 I think that he'll either not play until he's 39, he'll have a much more serious decline in power than I showed above, or he'll pull a Griffey and won't get much play time.

Darn, he "pulled a Griffey", by which I mean he's been injured a lot lately. Also, when I made this thread I was a little naive about the steroids and Sosa contraversy. Well I'm going to say he'll end up with very close to 700 still.

BlueJay

01-08-2005, 10:10 AM

Sosa has 574 home runs and will be 36 years old in 2005. Last year he hit 35 home runs, his lowest total in a decade. He is not the hitter he was from 1998-2002. I think Sosa has hit a very definate decline phase and it will be extremely difficult for him to continue to hit 35 a year the next 3-5 years. If he can stay healthy and play in a more hitter-friendly park then he'll stand a chance of reaching 700, but I think Sosa has lost any chance of breaking Aaron's (soon-to-be Bonds') record.

cubbieinexile

01-08-2005, 10:41 AM

I think he will hit less 100 home runs from here on out.

It is amazing how fast things can turn for players. It also goes to show you why it pays to be conservative when judging active players. I remember discussing this very issue on a Cubs board around 2002 and everybody thought Sammy was going to keep on hitting 50+ homers a season for the rest of eternity. I got my head taken off by merely suggesting that Sammy might have a decline.

Mattingly

01-08-2005, 10:56 AM

I think He will end up in the second place of all time, behind Hank Aaron.Perhaps not directly related, but how many would Barry have, since Sammy would be 2nd after Aaron?

ballparks

01-08-2005, 10:18 PM

Are we assuming that Sammy goes off the steroids????

Hammerin Hank

01-09-2005, 04:45 AM

He already did. That's why he was smaller this year and struggled at the plate.

Ubiquitous

03-28-2006, 11:41 PM

I'm going to guess 588 homers. What do I win?

Ubiquitous

03-28-2006, 11:45 PM

This is so fun, I'm going to make predictions for more of his stats:

Games: 2660, 28th all time
At bats: 10171, 20th
Runs: 1720, 22nd
Hits: 2800, 42nd
Doubles: 450, 71st
Triples: 50
RBI: 1910, 9th
Total Bases: 5700, 7th
Walks: 1160, 50th
Strikeouts: 2620, 1st
Stolen Bases: 240
HR: 690

Actual:
Games: 2240
AB: 8401
Runs: 1422
Hits: 2304
Doubles: 355
Triples: 44
RBI: 1575
TB: 4511
BB: 895
K's: 2194
SB: 234
HR: 588

Sweet Lou

03-29-2006, 07:57 AM

I started reading this thread, and was wondering, "What the heck is everyone talking about?" and then realized that this thread is 2 years old. :confused: :crazy :D :D
It's easy to confuse me! :)
Lou

Williamsburg2599

03-29-2006, 05:42 PM

I started reading this thread, and was wondering, "What the heck is everyone talking about?" and then realized that this thread is 2 years old. :confused: :crazy :D :D
It's easy to confuse me! :)
Lou
lol so did I:dance My question is do people respect Sosa more than Bonds and Mac now that hes off the juice?

Ubiquitous

01-17-2008, 11:12 AM

Well, he snuck in another year and got over 600. I didn't think he would do it.

AlexC

01-17-2008, 02:34 PM

Reckon he'll play another year though?
Not sure I can see it. I thought the A's might be a potential place for him, before they started trading, but that seems very unlikely now. Guess he could very well get a spring training invite someplace though.

fenrir

01-17-2008, 03:16 PM

StanTheMan

01-18-2008, 07:10 AM

There is no better way for me to identify my contempt for the PED era, than to vote LESS THAN 600 in an ancient thread.....

when the guy has already eclipsed 600.

White Knight

01-19-2008, 01:57 AM

I hope to God someone signs him and he finds his old stroke again.

lovethegame

01-19-2008, 03:56 AM

I hope to God someone signs him and he finds his old stroke again.
Me too.
He had a fine season in 07 considering the Rangers shelved him for most of the second half.
He was 8th in rbi at the break and 22-91 for a 450 ab season is not too shabby imo.

Gotta figure him for 30 115 given his abs

White Knight

01-19-2008, 11:22 AM

Me too.
He had a fine season in 07 considering the Rangers shelved him for most of the second half.
He was 8th in rbi at the break and 22-91 for a 450 ab season is not too shabby imo.

Gotta figure him for 30 115 given his abs

I agree. He's a steal for the money he'll get. I miss the days when he seemingly was hitting 60+ every year.

lovethegame

01-20-2008, 05:10 AM

I agree. He's a steal for the money he'll get. I miss the days when he seemingly was hitting 60+ every year.Read an interesting article about how Sosa is automatically lumped in yet unlike anyone else there has never been a teammate,trainer, friend or loved one roll out anything saying he supplied, injected, rubbed or even sprinkled anything on Sosa.
Compare that to Clemens,Petite, Tejada and of course Bonds to name just a few
People still hate the guy and belittle his achievements.
I remember when he was a Cub and in the middle of his outstanding run ,Don Baylor, the armless DH, telling the Trib,"Sammy needs to steal more , be more complete".This coming from that all around DH who won an MVP pedalling a life cycle half the game
Yes Sir, those 6o dingers, 300 avg and 135 ribbies while playing RF everyday just aren't cutting it

StanTheMan

01-20-2008, 07:11 AM

Read an interesting article about how Sosa is automatically lumped in yet unlike anyone else there has never been a teammate,trainer, friend or loved one roll out anything saying he supplied, injected, rubbed or even sprinkled anything on Sosa.

What was his famous quote to Congress (other than suddenly having English Language problems)..... something about "I have never taken any performance enhancing drugs in the USA." Something to that effect. Because that particular Congressional Hearing was NOT designed to not necessarily ask each individialy player about their OWN particular habits, rather steroid use in general, no congressman asked Sosa the most obvious follow up question of all time.....

"have you ever taken any PED's while in your native country during the off-season?"

It took the Mitchell Report to identify just a FEW "injectors" and a few suppliers in a few clubhouses. I'm not surprised at all that Sosa's buddies back home are not yet identified.... if there are any at all. I for one, would not be surprised if there were, and I don't think anyone else would be either.

Does Sosa get "lumped in" with the others... a little. But, he is not exactly shouting from the mountain tops trying to clear his name.

One reporter (Rick Reilly from Sport Illustrated, iirc) suggested that Sosa go get tested while he was still playing for the Cubs, he could come along and report on it, Sosa would get to clear his name, what does he have to hide, etc...

And Sosa went berzerk. Far from damning evidence, but it is another piece of the puzzle in the court of public opinion and the HOF vote -- where "beyond a reasonable doubt" is NOT required, nor should it be.

lovethegame

01-24-2008, 08:46 AM

I see what you are saying but ,I , as you have seen before, really wish anyone who did stood up and said they did.
It does intrigue me that noone has "rolled over" on Sosa
Lots of others have sieve like confidentiality

stejay

01-24-2008, 10:00 AM

745 I think he will get. Quote me on this in a few years time! lol:radio

cosmo34

01-24-2008, 10:40 AM

lovethegame

01-27-2008, 04:28 AM

I just hope he catches on somewhere this year. He's still got some HR's and RBI's left in him. I think as we get closer to reporting to ST, he'll get some kind of offer. No one's just gonna leave him on the shelf after showing he's still got a little left last year.

I agree , he'll never get the 7 mil he talked about, that's a pipedream ,but for 1.5 or so he'd be a very cost effective run producing dh fill in rf
get 25 - 100 for 1.5 lot's of teams would take it

Old Sweater

01-27-2008, 08:06 PM

I agree , he'll never get the 7 mil he talked about, that's a pipedream ,but for 1.5 or so he'd be a very cost effective run producing dh fill in rf
get 25 - 100 for 1.5 lot's of teams would take it

If Mike Piazza got this

2007 Oakland Athletics $8,500,000

for 44 RBI's

Sammy should get more then 1.5mil

lovethegame

01-31-2008, 01:43 PM

If Mike Piazza got this

2007 Oakland Athletics $8,500,000

for 44 RBI's

Sammy should get more then 1.5mil
I agree but Mike is the Jack Armstrong of this era and I suppose they feel he can help a staff.
Were I a GM I'd try 1.5 for Sosa with incentives and see what develops